# Potentials and challenges for sustainable progress in human longevity. Empirical evidence from subnational mortality trends in Europe (1992-2019)

Florian Bonnet, Ina Alliger, Carlo Giovanni Camarda, Sebastian Klüsener, France Meslé, Michael Mühlichen, Josselin Thuilliez, Pavel Grigoriev

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## ► To cite this version:

Florian Bonnet, Ina Alliger, Carlo Giovanni Camarda, Sebastian Klüsener, France Meslé, et al.. Potentials and challenges for sustainable progress in human longevity. Empirical evidence from subnational mortality trends in Europe (1992-2019). 30th IUSSP International Population Conference, Jul 2025, Brisbane, Australia. **hal-05456124**

HAL Id: hal-05456124

https://hal.science/hal-05456124v1

Submitted on 13 Jan 2026

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# Potentials and challenges for sustainable progress in human longevity

## Empirical evidence from subnational mortality trends in Europe (1992-2019)

Florian Bonnet¹

Ina Alliger²

Carlo G. Camarda¹

Sebastian Klüsener²

France Meslé¹

Michael Mühlichen²

Josselin Thuilliez³

Pavel Grigoriev²

ined
INSTITUT NATIONAL
D'ETUDIES DEMOGRAPHIQUES

BiB
Federal Institute for
Population Research

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¹French Institute for Demographic Studies (INED), France

²Federal Institute for Population Research (BiB), Germany

³French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS), France

30TH INTERNATIONAL POPULATION CONFERENCE
BRISBANE, 13-18 JULY, 2025

30th International Population Conference, 2025

Bonnet et al.

Regional progress in longevity in Europe

1

## Our perspective: 450 regions

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## Motivations

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* We explore the evolution of life expectancy (LE) gains since the end of the 20th century in Western Europe

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## AIM

Understand why LE gains seem to be falling, particularly for women

## LE Gains: How Much and How Even?

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* 1992-2005:
  * Average annual LE gains remained stable for both men and women
  * A decline variation in LE gains: more homogeneity in gains

* 2005-2019:
  * Steady decline in the average LE gains
  * Increasing trend toward regional heterogeneity
## LE Gains: How Much and How Even?

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* 1992-2005:

* Average annual LE gains remained stable for both men and women

* A decline variation in LE gains: more homogeneity in gains

* 2005-2019:

* Steady decline in the average LE gains

* Increasing trend toward regional heterogeneity

## LE trends for vanguard and laggard regions

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* Decelerating gains for the laggards

* Constant gains for the vanguards

## LE trends for vanguard and laggard regions

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* Decelerating gains for the laggards

* Constant gains for the vanguards

## Rank and Gain. Laggards: Decline in LE gains

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Mapping laggards (males)

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* Initially located in Eastern Germany, Portugal, the area around the Belgian-French border, and Scotland

* Expanded into Western Germany and Southern Denmark

* Disappeared from Northern Portugal

Mapping laggards (females)

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* Initially located in Eastern Germany, Denmark, Portugal, Ireland, Northern England and Scotland

* Moving toward Western Germany

* Disappeared from Portugal and Ireland

Rank and Gain. Vanguards: Steady LE gains

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Mapping vanguards (males)

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* Mainly Located in Spain, Southern England, and Italy

* Moving toward Northern Italy and Switzerland

* Shrinking in England
Mapping vanguards (females)

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* Initially located in Northern Spain, Western and Southern France

* Expanding in Spain and Northern Italy

* More scattered in France

Breaking it down: Why age matters

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* Declining gains in the 55-74 age group

* Stable trends in other age groups

Midlife Matters: Mapping the Gains

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* Gains are shrinking, but not everywhere

* German regions exhibit the most concerning reversal

* Current LE gains reflect the (in)ability to further reduce mortality among 55-74 year-olds

Midlife Matters: Mapping the Gains

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* Gains are shrinking, but not everywhere

* German regions exhibit the most concerning reversal

* Current LE gains reflect the (in)ability to further reduce mortality among 55-74 year-olds
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* Gains are shrinking, but not everywhere

* German regions exhibit the most concerning reversal

* Current LE gains reflect the (in)ability to further reduce mortality among 55-74 year-olds

BONNET ET AL.

Potentials and challenges for sustainable progress
in human longevity

Empirical evidence from subnational mortality trends in Europe
(1992-2019)

Thanks for your attention.

Comments and questions?

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❶ Hidden Gaps Behind National Averages

* National statistics mask striking **regional inequalities** in life expectancy across Western Europe

❷ From Convergence to Divergence

* Since 2005, **laggard regions lost momentum** while vanguards held steady, widening the longevity gap

❸ The Geography of Longevity Is Shifting

* Vanguard and laggard regions have **reshuffled over time**, revealing a dynamic map of gains and losses

❹ Midlife Mortality Is a Growing Concern

* Mortality rates are now **rising among 55-74-year-olds** in several regions, particularly in Germany

❺ Longevity Limits? Or New Possibilities?

* While overall gains have slowed, **top regions continue to progress**, suggesting room for **future breakthroughs**