recorded on 30 October 1999. Extremely high maximum temperatures also occurred in Gauteng from 4 October, and resulted in prolonged heat wave conditions for 9 consecutive days in Pretoria and 8 consecutive days in Johannesburg. Lephalale in Limpopo Province also experienced heat wave conditions for 6 consecutive days. Heat wave conditions also occurred in November, beginning on the 7th and prevailing over four provinces: Gauteng Mpumalanga, the Limpopo Province, and North West.

An extensive dust storm occurred about 60 km north of Bloemfontein between Winburg and Verkeerdevlei on 11 November. According to reports, the wall of dust was estimated between 20 and 25 km wide and at least 3 km high. The dust storm was accompanied by strong winds blowing at 60–70 km hour⁻¹.

6) **WESTERN AND CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN ISLAND COUNTRIES**—G. Jumaux, L. Randriamarolaza, M. Belmont, and H. Zahid

This region consists of several island countries, namely Madagascar, La Réunion (France), Mayotte (France), Seychelles, and Maldives.

Overall, the 2015 mean temperature for the region was well above normal. Precipitation was also generally above normal, especially during the second half of the year in the Maldives and Réunion, but was below normal in Mayotte for the same period (Fig. 7.26).

#### (i) Temperature

In Madagascar, 2015 was the fourth warmest year since records began in 1971 (the warmest year was 2011). The overall annual mean temperature was

24.2°C, corresponding to an anomaly of about +0.5°C. All stations had positive anomalies, with the highest departure observed at Ambohitsilaozana (northeastern Madagascar; 1.8°C above average), except Antsiranana (northern Madagascar) station (0.1°C below; Fig. 7.27). During austral summer (January–March), the seasonal mean temperature was below the reference period. The mean temperature for July–August was above normal.

For Réunion Island, 2015 was the third warmest year since records began there in 1969, with an annual mean temperature anomaly (based on six stations) of +0.7°C. Only February and March were below or near-normal. Minimum and maximum annual temperatures were 0.5°C and 0.9°C above the 1981–2010 mean, respectively.

For Mayotte Island (Pamandzi Airport), 2015 was the warmest year since records began in 1961, with an annual mean temperature anomaly of +0.7°C (+0.6°C for maximum temperature and +0.8°C for minimum

<figure><img src="image_262.png" /><figcaption>**FIG. 7.26.** Mean annual temperature anomalies (°C), annual rainfall anomalies (%), and their respective deciles for the Indian Ocean islands (Sources: Météo France; and Meteorological Services of Madagascar, Seychelles, and Maldives.)</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_263.png" /><figcaption>**FIG. 7.27.** Annual mean temperature anomalies (°C) based on 1981–2010 average. The circle dimension is related to the anomaly absolute values. (Source: Climate Change and Climatology Service, Meteorology of Madagascar.)</figcaption></figure>
temperature, both highest on record). December was the warmest month of the year, with an average daily maximum temperature of 32°C.

For Seychelles, all months had above-normal mean maximum temperatures (at Seychelles International Airport) except January and February. The warmest month was April with a maximum temperature average of 32.3°C and a minimum temperature average of 26.2°C (respective anomalies of +0.7°C and +0.8°C). The annual mean temperature in 2015 was 0.5°C above average, marking the second warmest year since 2009.

For the Maldives, the annual mean temperature (based on two stations: Gan and Hulhule) in 2015 was 28.8°C, +0.5°C compared to normal. Mean temperatures were above average for all months, with the highest anomaly of +1.2°C observed in December (Fig. 7.28). These elevated temperatures are associated with the 2015 El Niño event. Overall, 2015 was the third warmest year since records began in 1981.

## (ii) Precipitation

In Madagascar, annual accumulated precipitation was slightly above the 1981–2010 average. However, 10 of 22 stations indicated below-average annual total precipitation. The highest positive anomaly was recorded in Morombe (200% of normal) in southwestern Madagascar, while the lowest negative anomaly was observed in Sainte Marie (47% of normal) in northeastern Madagascar. In addition, more stations were drier than average in northern Madagascar than in the south (Fig. 7.29). During austral summer (January–March), rainfall was above average, but was below average from April to December. In addition, the number of dry days (rainfall < 0.1mm) were 12 on average during summer, compared with 22 days on average for April–December.

For Réunion Island, the annual rainfall was about 120% of average, marking the ninth rainiest year

<figure><img src="image_264.png" /><figcaption>**FIG. 7.28.** Monthly mean temperature anomalies (°C) in 2015 in Maldives (average of two stations) with respect to the 1981–2010 base period. (Source: Maldives Meteorological Service.)</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_265.png" /><figcaption>**FIG. 7.29.** Annual total precipitation (% of normal) with respect to the 1981–2010 period. The circle dimension is related to the anomaly absolute values. (Source: Climate Change and Climatology Service, Meteorology of Madagascar.)</figcaption></figure>

since records began in 1969. March was the wettest month of the year due to heavy rainfall in the wake of tropical storm Haliba's passage near Réunion on 9 March. The number of substantial rainy days (56 days compared with an average of 37) was the highest on record (followed by 1982, 1972, and 2008).

For Mayotte Island, the annual rainfall amount (based on two stations) was slightly below average. January was the wettest month of the year, especially on the eastern part of the island. Pamandzi airport recorded 510 mm, which is the rainiest January for this station since records began in 1961 (followed by 1971, 1986, and 2008).

In Seychelles, annual rainfall total in 2015 was 105% of normal. Below-normal rainfall and fewer-than-normal rain days were reported from January to April and in July. May–October is the dry season in Seychelles but, with the presence of an active
El Niño, several months received abnormally high rainfall (Fig. 7.30). August received 298.3 mm (normal is 122.5 mm); October recorded 337.6 mm (normal is 177.7 mm); and November recorded 353.9 mm (normal is 192.5 mm). Many days with daily rainfall above 50 mm were recorded during the last five months of 2015. The highest daily value (122.6 mm) was recorded on 9 November at Seychelles Airport.

For the Maldives, the annual rainfall amount in 2015 was 2408 mm, 114% of average, making 2015 was the fourth wettest year since records began in 1981. August was the wettest month of the year, with an average rainfall of 370 mm over the Maldives (Fig. 7.31). As is typical, February was the driest month of the year, with average rainfall of 24 mm. On average, the Maldives experienced about 140 rainy days in 2015, 5 more than average. In 2015, the highest number of rainy days was recorded in August, September, and October (19 days each). On the other hand, the lowest number of rainy days (3) was experienced in January.

### (iii) Notable events

The absolute maximum temperature was recorded at Antsohihy (northwestern Madagascar) on 13 October and 11 November (+38.7°C) and the absolute

<figure><img src="image_266.png" /><figcaption>FIG. 7.30. 2015 monthly rainfall anomalies (mm) at Seychelles International Airport. (Source: Seychelles Meteorological Services.)</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_267.png" /><figcaption>FIG. 7.31. 2015 monthly rainfall anomalies (mm) in Maldives (Source: Maldives Meteorological Services.)</figcaption></figure>

minimum temperature was recorded at Antsirabe (central Madagascar) on 21 July (-1.2°C).

The highest 24-h accumulated precipitation was 318 mm recorded in Maintirano (western Madagascar) on 2 February, which is a 12-year return period event. Grand-Ilet station (Salazie, in the highlands) recorded 1277 mm in 4 days (5-year return period).

Associated with cyclones and other systems in the region, the Maldives experienced rough sea conditions and flooding. Average winds of 24 km hour⁻¹ prevailed in the central atolls from 10 January until the end of the month. Due to strong, sustained winds, moderate to rough seas prevailed in the area, which caused a passenger boat to run aground on a reef near Kaafu Maniyafushi. All 24 passengers were rescued, but the boat sank in the reef as the Coast Guard was unable to continue rescue efforts in the area due to the strong winds and rough seas. No cyclones directly impacted the Maldives in 2015.

On the other hand, Madagascar was affected by three tropical systems that formed in the Mozambican Channel on 13 January (Tropical Storm Chaedza), 5 February (Tropical Storm Fundi), and 3 March (a tropical depression). The persistence of the ITCZ amplified the conditions, leading to an event that had never occurred in February since records began in 1961. On 26 February, in Antananarivo, significant rainfall of 129.2 mm caused the destruction of a dam, which led to a major flooding event. Madagascar's disaster management agency, the Bureau National de Gestion des Risques et des Catastrophes (BNGRC), reported that 19 lives were lost, 36 956 residents displaced, and more than 60 000 people affected by the disaster. An estimated 517 houses were destroyed and 1698 were damaged in the floods. BNGRC also reported that the floods damaged 6339 hectares of rice fields.

Associated with a cloud cluster that formed south of the Maldives on 24 November, 228 mm of rain fell in the southernmost region in Addu City, the highest recorded 24-h rainfall for the Maldives, breaking the previous record of 188 mm. Three hours of torrential rain and more than 12 hours of incessant rainfall left most parts of Addu City under water, and flood water damaged household appliances and furniture in hundreds of households. It is estimated that more than 200 houses experienced flooding, and damage was estimated to be in excess of 200 000 U.S. dollars.

### f. Europe and the Middle East

This section covers western Europe, from Scandinavia to the Mediterranean, and extends from Ireland and the United Kingdom to eastern Europe, European
Russia, and parts of the Middle East. While the entire region is covered in the Overview, not all countries provided input to this report, so some individual national details are not included.

Throughout this section, normal is defined as the 1961-90 average for both temperature and precipitation, unless otherwise specified. European countries conform to different standard base periods applied by their national weather services. All seasons mentioned in this section refer to the Northern Hemisphere. Significance implies an exceedance of 5th or 95th percentiles.

More detailed information, including monthly statistics, can be found in the Monthly and Annual Bulletin on the Climate in RA VI - European and the Middle East, provided by WMO RA VI Regional Climate Centre Node on Climate Monitoring (RCC Node-CM; www.dwd.de/rcc-cm). All statistics reported here are for three-month seasons.

### 1) OVERVIEW

Europe was, on average, much warmer than normal in 2015. The mean land surface air temperature for the European region (35°-75°N, 10°W-30°E) from the CRUTEM4 dataset (Jones et al. 2012) was +1.51°C above the 1961-90 normal, only 0.2°C short of the previous record set in 2014 (Fig. 7.32). According to the E-OBS dataset (van der Schrier et al. 2013b; Chrysanthou et al. 2014), which uses different meteorological stations over an area extending farther west and east (25°W-45°E), the European annual mean land surface temperature was the highest on record (+0.93°C above the 1981-2010 average; Fig. 7.33). However, differences between both datasets are within the level of uncertainty (allowing for the different base periods).

Across Europe and the Middle East, temperature anomalies ranged between +1°C in northwestern areas and +3°C in northeastern and Alpine regions (Fig. 7.34).

Precipitation totals in 2015 (Fig. 7.35) were below average across most of continental Europe and Iceland (60%-80% of normal). Parts of the British Isles, northern Europe, and the central and eastern Mediterranean recorded significantly above-average totals of 125% of normal and locally up to 170% of normal.

Winter 2014/15 (December-February) was exceptionally mild over Scandinavia and the eastern European region, with surface and 850-hPa temperature anomalies up to +4°C (Fig. 7.36a). The Icelandic low (negative anomalies of -12 hPa) and the Azores high (positive anomalies of +12 hPa) were well established as reflected by the North Atlantic Oscillation index

<figure><img src="image_268.png" /><figcaption>FIG. 7.32. Annual average land surface air temperature anomaly (°C) for the European region (35°-75°N, 10°W-30°E) relative to the 1961-90 base period. The blue bars show the annual average values and the black error bars indicate the 95% confidence range of the uncertainties. The green bar is the annual value for 2015. Data are from the CRUTEM4 dataset (Jones et al. 2012.)</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_269.png" /><figcaption>FIG. 7.33. Annual land surface air temperature anomaly (°C) for Europe, similar to Fig. 7.32, but based on the E-OBS dataset (van der Schrier et al. 2013b and Chrysanthou et al. 2014) from 1950 to 2015. [Source: KNMI (Royal National Meteorological Institute) Netherlands.]</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_270.png" /><figcaption>FIG. 7.34. Annual mean air temperature anomalies (°C; 1961-90 base period) in 2015. (Source: DWD.)</figcaption></figure>
<figure><img src="image_271.png" /><figcaption>FIG. 7.35. European precipitation totals (% of 1951–2000 average) for 2015. Hatched areas indicate regions where precipitation is higher than the 95th percentile of the 1961–90 distribution. Only grid points with mean annual precipitation >15 mm month⁻¹ are represented. [Source: Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (Schneider et al. 2015).]</figcaption></figure>

[NAO +1.65, normalized pressure difference between the Azores High (Ponta Delgada, Azores) and the Icelandic Low (Reykjavík, Iceland)]. This synoptic pattern allowed for a frequent westerly flow of mild Atlantic air masses that brought precipitation totals of up to 170% of normal, particularly in northern parts of Europe and in the southeast (Fig. 7.37a, hatched). In contrast, the Iberian Peninsula and southwestern France had below-average surface temperature anomalies of up to -1°C due to the influence of high pressure and precipitation less than 40% of normal in places.

During spring (March-May) significant above-average 500-hPa heights centered over Iberia led to well-above-normal temperatures in southwestern Europe (Fig. 7.36c, dotted). March in particular contributed to the anomalous warmth. It was the third straight month of extensive westerlies and southwesternlies advancing over northeastern Europe where temperature anomalies exceeded +4°C.

Northern Europe was affected by frequent Atlantic cyclones throughout the season that caused a significant precipitation surplus of locally more than 180% of normal (Fig. 7.37b, hatched), whereas the western half of Europe, including most of the British Isles, had below-average totals.

The summer season (June-August) was characterized by a hot spell across western, central, and eastern Europe (see Sidebar 7.1) as a result of significant above-average 500-hPa heights (Fig. 7.36e, dotted). In

<figure><img src="image_272.png" /><figcaption>FIG. 7.36. Seasonal anomalies of (left) 500-hPa geopotential height (contour, gpm) and 850-hPa temperature (shading, °C) and (right) near-surface air temperature, using data from the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis for (a), (b) DJF (winter), (c), (d) MAM (spring), (e), (f) JJA (summer), and (g), (h) SON (autumn). In left column, dotted areas indicate regions where 500-hPa geopotential is above (below) the 95th percentile (5th percentile) of the 1961–90 distribution, while hatched areas represent the corresponding thresholds but for 850-hPa temperature. Base period used for both analyses is 1961–90. (Source: Deutscher Wetterdienst.)</figcaption></figure>

contrast, the British Isles, Scandinavia, and northern European Russia were influenced by frequent low pressure systems. These regions recorded surface temperature anomalies of 0° to -1°C accompanied by above-average rain amounts of up to 170% of normal (Fig. 7.37c).
<figure><img src="image_273.png" /></figure>

FIG. 7.37. Seasonal anomalies for 2015 (1961–90 base period) of sea level pressure (hPa) from NCAR-NCEP reanalysis (contours) for (a) DJF (winter); (b) MAM (spring); (c) JJA (summer); and (d) SON (autumn). Colored shading represents the percentage of seasonal mean precipitation for 2015 compared with the 1961–90 mean from the monthly Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (Schneider et al. 2015) dataset (only grid points with climatological mean seasonal precipitation above 15 mm month⁻¹ are represented). Dotted areas indicate regions where SLP is higher (lower) than the 95th percentile (5th percentile) of the 1961–90 distribution, while hatched areas represent the corresponding thresholds but for precipitation.

In autumn the atmospheric circulation featured above-average 500-hPa heights (Fig. 7.36g), and temperatures were warmer than normal in nearly all regions. Scandinavia and the eastern Mediterranean, including the Black Sea region, were especially affected by high pressure conditions and recorded significantly positive surface and 850-hPa temperature anomalies of more than +3°C in places. According to the E-OBS dataset, it was the third warmest autumn since 1950 for the European region. Eastern Turkey and the Balkan States received localized precipitation totals of more than 200% of normal (Fig. 7.37d).

The year ended exceptionally warm, with a strong positive NAO (+2.24) phase in December. The synoptic pattern was associated with exceptionally widespread positive temperature anomalies that exceeded +4°C. Large parts of Europe recorded their warmest December since 1950. Only the eastern Mediterranean experienced below-average temperatures, with anomalies reaching -2°C.

## 2) CENTRAL AND WESTERN EUROPE

This region includes Ireland, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, France, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary.

### (i) Temperature

Annual temperatures in central Europe were warmer than normal and nearly all areas of the region were around 2°C above their long-term means. Switzerland had its warmest year since national records began in 1864 (+2.1°C). Austria, Germany, Slovakia, and Hungary each experienced their second warmest year since 1767, 1881, 1961, and 1901, respectively, with anomalies ranging between +1.7°C and +2.2°C.

The winter season 2014/15 was exceptionally mild, particularly for the eastern part of the region, which was more often than normal under the influence of subtropical air masses. Spring was characterized by above-average temperatures except for most of Ireland, where deviations of -1°C were recorded. May in particular contributed to the cooler-than-normal conditions in Ireland, where deviations down to -1.7°C were recorded.

During summer, the atmospheric circulation featured significantly widespread anomalous high temperatures across continental Europe. Near the Alps, the blocking ridge led to positive temperature anomalies up to +4°C. In contrast, the British Isles were affected by frequent westerly flow of Atlantic air masses that led to a summer with mostly near-normal temperatures, although a brief heat wave occurred in early July, particularly affecting southern parts of the United Kingdom.

Temperature anomalies in autumn ranged between -1°C in parts of France to +2°C in the southern United Kingdom and eastern areas of the region. November was especially warm (2°-4°C above average), when many daily high temperature records were broken. Germany reported its warmest November on record (3.5°C above average). The United Kingdom and Switzerland reported deviations of +2.6°C and +2.7°C, respectively, with each having their third warmest November since 1910 and 1864, respectively.

The year ended with exceptionally warm December temperatures that were more than +4°C from the reference period across nearly the entire region. An exceptionally strong southwesterly flow associated with a strong positive phase of the NAO contributed to these spring-like temperatures.
### (ii) Precipitation

Annual precipitation totals were mostly below the long-term mean. Only Ireland, Scotland, Benelux, and northern Germany had slightly above-normal precipitation.

Winter 2014/15 was characterized by below-average precipitation in central Europe, with locally less than 60% of normal. The United Kingdom was affected by frequent cyclonic conditions that gave rise to a surplus of up to 140% of normal precipitation.

Spring was drier than normal across the entire region, except in Scotland. France, central Germany, and western Poland each received 60%-80% of normal precipitation and locally even less, associated with areas of significantly above-average sea level pressure (SLP, dotted areas in Fig. 7.37b). Over the British Isles, below-average totals of 70% of normal in southern England contrasted with values in western Scotland of more than 150% of normal.

During summer, below-average precipitation totals continued, especially in eastern and central Europe and the Alpine region where totals as low as 40% of normal were registered. Hungary reported its sixth driest June since 1901.

Autumn precipitation was above normal in the eastern part of the region, while western areas, including the British Isles, experienced a rain deficit. High pressure over northern Europe during September and October brought dry conditions to the United Kingdom, with 54% and 65% of normal rain, respectively. The season ended with very wet conditions when the Icelandic low was well established. This synoptic pattern was associated with 250% of normal totals in most regions, except France and the Alpine region. Repeated low pressure systems continued to the end of the year, and precipitation remained well above normal.

### (iii) Notable events

Two storms crossed the North Sea during 9-11 January. At the central German mountain station Brocken, wind gusts of more than 43 m s⁻¹ were measured.

During July and August, Hungary reported a record 27 days of heat wave conditions, and Budapest experienced a record-breaking 34 tropical nights, the most since records began in 1901.

Two intense rainstorms crossed southeastern France during 12-13 September, bringing 200-242 mm rain within 6 hours. The latter amount is a new record at station Grospierres.

In November, many record high temperatures were measured. On 7 November, a station in Freiburg, southwest Germany, recorded 23.2°C, its highest daily maximum temperature for November.

Ireland reported its sixth wettest November since records began in 1866. Newport, on the west coast of Ireland, observed a record daily rainfall of 66.2 mm (190% of normal) on 14 November.

Several storms traversed central Europe in November. During the 17th and 18th, a core pressure below 985 hPa brought wind gusts of more than 48 m s⁻¹, causing traffic disturbance and damage to trees and buildings.

## 3) THE NORDIC AND THE BALTIC COUNTRIES

This region includes Iceland, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

### (i) Temperature

Annual temperatures in 2015 were well above normal in the Nordic and Baltic countries. Finland and the Baltic States experienced anomalous temperatures of +2° to +3°C. Lithuania and Finland experienced their warmest year on record, with anomalies of +2.1°C and +2.6°C, respectively. Norway observed its third warmest year since records began in 1900, with an anomaly of +1.8°C. Iceland, however, recorded only slightly-above-average temperatures (0° to +1°C) and had its coldest year since 2000.

Winter 2014/15 was exceptionally mild in Scandinavia and the Baltic States, with the largest deviations of more than +4°C in Estonia, Finland, and central Sweden. The anomalous temperatures were caused by persistent southwesterly flow, which brought subtropical air far into Scandinavia. February in particular contributed to the anomalous warmth. Finland, on average, had temperatures 7°C above normal, marking its third warmest February, behind 1990 and 2014. Norway's average anomaly was +4.2°C, with anomalies at stations in southern and central regions up to +6°C and +9°C, respectively.

In spring, temperatures remained above the long-term mean, with anomalies between +3° and +4°C in northern Scandinavia (hatched areas in Fig. 7.36b). March was especially warm when mild subtropical air advanced far into the north. Lithuania reported positive anomalies of +4.9°C. Norway also experienced a mild March, at 3.8°C above average. Locally, in Finnmark and Troms (far northern Norway), deviations of +5° to +7°C were reported.

During summer, temperatures were near-normal on balance. Above-average temperatures of +1°C over the Baltic States contrasted with below-average conditions (-1°C) over Iceland and most of Scandinavia. June and July were cooler than normal, with anomalies as much as -2°C over the Scandinavian countries where below-average 500-hPa heights prevailed.
Temperatures in autumn were significantly warmer than normal throughout all regions due to dominant high pressure (dotted areas in Fig. 7.36g). The strongest deviations occurred in northern Scandinavia, at +2° to +3°C. In November, a strong positive NAO phase (+1.7) led to many locations in Scandinavia observing temperatures above their 90th percentile.

In December, a combination of prolonged high pressure over the central Mediterranean and warm air advection caused exceptionally mild conditions in the Nordic region. Widespread positive anomalies of more than +4°C were recorded across most regions, except for Iceland, where below-average temperatures in western areas contrasted with warmer conditions in the east.

## (ii) Precipitation

With the exception of Iceland and the Baltic States, annual precipitation totals were above normal. Denmark reported its second wettest year since 1874, and Norway observed 125% of normal precipitation on average, which is third wettest in its 116-year record.

Winter 2014/15 was wetter than normal across nearly all of the Nordic countries due to a strong positive NAO phase (+1.65). Below-average 500-hPa heights were associated with frequent cyclonic conditions that brought up to 170% of normal precipitation to the region (hatched areas in Fig. 7.37a).

In spring, wetter-than-normal conditions remained, especially across Scandinavia where 125%-170% of normal totals were widely observed. Norway experienced its second wettest May on record (after 1949), with 175% of normal rainfall.

Precipitation in summer was close to normal except for the Baltic States. A persistent blocking ridge centered over continental Europe resulted in dry conditions, with only 60% of normal rainfall recorded (dotted in Fig. 7.37c). August was especially dry, with nearly all regions recording below-average totals. Exceptionally low rainfall of less than 20% of normal was recorded across the Baltic States. Lithuania reported just 16% of its normal rainfall.

During autumn, precipitation totals were mostly below the long-term mean, except for parts of north-central Finland and Denmark (>125% of normal totals). The Baltic States recorded a deficit between 40% and 60% of normal totals. Exceptionally strong southwesterlies in December brought well-above-normal precipitation totals to the Nordic countries. Denmark received up to 250% of normal precipitation. Only parts of central and northern Scandinavia registered a rain deficit, 60%-80% of normal.

## (iii) Notable events

In January, Norway and Sweden experienced extreme precipitation totals. Some stations in Norway received up to 400% of normal; at Eikemo (coastal western Norway) 782.3 mm was measured, corresponding to 280% of normal. Station Piteå in northeast Sweden reported a monthly rain accumulation of 1346 mm, which is the most since the record began in 1890.

During 9-11 January, the Danish coast was hit by two successive storms. On the morning of 11 January, water in Lemvig (northwest Denmark) rose to 1.95 m above normal, breaking the previous record of 1.81 m.

During a period of strong westerlies in February, Norway reported record-breaking wind gusts of more than 46 m s⁻¹ in southern mountainous areas; 70 000 people lost power. Givær, an island in Bodø (northern Norway), was evacuated during a spring high tide.

In September, Norway was hit by thunderstorms and accompanying extreme precipitation. In the south, station Gjerstad received monthly totals of 478 mm (330% of normal), and station Postmyr i Drangedal received 449.5 mm (350% of normal). On 2 September, the latter recorded its highest daily total of 117.8 mm.

On 2 October, a storm caused forest damage in central Finland and left over 200 000 households without power.

In November, two storms hit Denmark with record-breaking wind gusts. During 7-8 November, the first storm produced Hanstholm's (on the northwest coast) highest wind gust of 34.6 m s⁻¹ and a record-breaking 10-minute mean wind of 27.3 m s⁻¹. On 29 November, the second storm passed with wind gusts up to 45.9 m s⁻¹.

## 4) IBERIAN PENINSULA

This region includes Spain and Portugal. In this subsection, anomalies refer to a reference period of 1981-2010, with the exception of precipitation for Portugal, which the country reports with respect to a 1971-2000 reference period.

### (i) Temperature

The Iberian Peninsula experienced a warmer-than-normal year in 2015. Spain recorded an annual anomaly of +0.9°C and tied with 2011 for its warmest year on record, which dates to 1961. Portugal reported positive anomalies compared to the 1981-2010 reference period between +0.6°C in southern regions and +1.7°C in east-central parts of the country.

Winter 2014/15 was colder than normal throughout Iberia due to cold air advection from the north. Spain and Portugal were 0.6°C and 1°C below average, re-
respectively. A colder-than-normal winter was followed by a very warm spring, and the entire Iberian Peninsula registered positive temperature anomalies and significantly above-average 500-hPa heights (dotted in Fig. 7.36a,c). Spain reported a mean anomaly of +1.5°C, with an extremely warm May (+2.4°C), which was the second warmest in its 55-year record.

Significantly anomalous above-normal temperatures remained in summer due to a blocking high pressure ridge over Europe, and anomalies exceeded +2.5°C in most areas. During July, Spain experienced its highest monthly average temperature on record. This month also featured unusually persistent heat wave conditions. In central and southeastern parts of the country, positive anomalies of +3°C were recorded; it was the second warmest summer season on record, behind 2003.

Autumn, overall, was also warmer than normal but with only slightly-above-average values. Very warm conditions in November remained in December, with monthly anomalies of +2°C as a result of an eastward extending Azores high (positive SLP anomalies of up to +10 hPa over the Iberian Peninsula).

## (ii) Precipitation

Annual precipitation totals over Iberia were mostly below average (60%–80% of normal). For Portugal the year was extremely dry and only 68% of the normal rain was measured (25% of normal totals based on the 1971–2000 reference period used for precipitation in Portugal). Spain received 77% of its normal precipitation, mainly due to extremely dry conditions in April, May, November, and December.

Winter 2014/15 was characterized by a strong positive NAO, which was reflected in the precipitation distribution over the Iberian Peninsula. While the northernmost part was influenced by northerly flow bringing 125% of normal precipitation, the remaining region experienced a very dry season. Widespread below-average totals of less than 60% of normal were recorded.

During spring, the Azores high extended far into the European continent and led to well-below-normal precipitation totals. May brought an extreme rain deficit. Spain reported mean monthly precipitation totals just 25% of normal, its driest May on record. Portugal also observed extreme rain deficits, but mostly in the southern half of the country.

In summer, wetter-than-normal conditions in northeastern Spain contrasted with below-average totals in the remainder of the country. Southern Portugal received only 20%–40% of normal totals and locally even less.

Precipitation in autumn was below average throughout the Iberian Peninsula, with 60%–80% of normal rainfall over central to northeastern Spain. Only southeastern areas recorded a surplus, up to 125% of normal.

The year ended with very dry conditions, caused by a strengthening of the positive NAO phase (+2.2 in December). Spain reported December rainfall just 20% of normal, the driest December at many eastern stations (several reported no rain at all), and Portugal saw less than 50% of its normal precipitation in some regions.

## (iii) Notable events

During the first 10 days of February, Spain recorded a significant cold spell due to an intrusion of continental cold air masses from central Europe. A minimum temperature of –11.9°C was measured at the station Molina de Aragon in central Spain.

In northern Spain along the coast of the Bay of Biscay, heavy rainfall in February set new record high totals, with precipitation 300% of the wintertime normal.

Although spring was overall drier than normal in Spain, heavy precipitation events occurred in March. Starting on 5 March, a week of heavy rain, combined with meltwater, led to flooding in the northeast. On 22 March, Castellón de la Plana-Almazora on the eastern coast recorded 133.8 mm within 24 hours.

In May, Spain and Portugal were affected by a heat wave with record-breaking high temperatures. Valencia Airport registered 42.6°C on 13 May, 6.6°C higher than the previous record. By 14 May, the southern station of Beja had already reported 19 days in 2015 with maximum temperatures above 30°C, which was 14 days more than normal.

In summer, Spain suffered from an extraordinarily long, intense heat wave (nearly continuous from 27 June to 22 July), particularly affecting the central and southern regions, where temperatures above 45°C were reported on 6 and 7 July.

On 4 September, Palma de Mallorca (island south of Barcelona) received 124.3 mm rain from thunderstorm activity within 24 hours, the highest for any time of year since the record began in 1973.

On 15–16 September, a low pressure system with a core pressure of 990 hPa delivered more than 100 mm precipitation to several stations in Portugal. Rainfall totals were 150%–200% of normal for September in northern Portugal. The highest accumulated rain was recorded at northern station Cabril (160.4 mm).

Intense rainfall occurred on 1 November at the Algarve in Portugal. Daily accumulated precipitation
<figure><img src="image_274.png" /><figcaption>FIG. SB7.1. Monthly air temperature anomalies (°C, 1961–90 reference period) for Europe in (a) Jun, (b) Jul, and (c) Aug 2015. (Source: Deutscher Wetterdienst.)</figcaption></figure>

From late June to early September 2015, much of Europe was under the influence of an unusually strong and long-lasting heat wave. Spain and Portugal also had well-above-normal temperatures in May. The heat was associated with an exceptional rain deficit that led to drought conditions in several regions from southwestern Iberia to eastern Europe, while at the same time heavy thunderstorms were recorded in the central and eastern Mediterranean.

The heat wave affected much of Europe during June, July, and August (Fig. SB7.1). At the end of June, a blocking high pressure system developed over southwest-to-central Europe, with a meandering upper level jet stream, allowing hot air to flow from Africa to Europe, where it became trapped. In mid-July, the Azores high extended farther into central Europe, and by the end of the month, it shifted eastward. The anticyclone caused large-scale subsidence, and western Europe recorded maximum temperatures up to around 40°C. By the end of August, two anticyclones developed over eastern Europe. The resulting southerly flow of hot air masses brought high temperatures to eastern and central Europe.

On an areal average, the European region experienced its third warmest summer season since 1910, behind 2003 and 2010, with temperatures +1.7°C above the 1961–90 mean. August contributed most to the anomalous warmth, with a record high anomaly of +2.3°C, while July was sixth warmest (+1.5°C); June was 15th warmest, with slightly-above-normal temperatures (+0.9°C).

For much of June, Iberia, France, and the western Alpine region observed high temperatures, with anomalies of +3° to +4°C. Portugal registered a monthly mean temperature of 21.8°C, its fifth highest on record, at +2.4°C above the 1961–90 mean. The absolute maximum of 43.2°C was measured on 29 June at Beja, in the south of the country. In France, many

<figure><img src="image_275.png" /><figcaption>FIG. SB7.2. Percentages of (a) warm days and (b) warm nights for 2015. A warm day or night is defined as a day where the maximum or minimum temperature exceeds the 90th percentile of the values from the 1981–2010 average. (Source: E-OBS dataset, EURO4M.)</figcaption></figure>
maximum temperature records were broken at the end of June. On the 30th, temperatures were as much as 12°C above the seasonal mean in western areas.

In July, the core region of the heat wave moved to central Europe, the Mediterranean, and the Balkan region. However, Spain still experienced its warmest July in its 55-year record, with anomalies of +2.5°C above the 1981–2010 mean. Germany observed a record-breaking maximum temperature of 40.3°C at Kitzingen (central region) on 5 July, and France had a new record maximum temperature, 41.1°C, at Brive-la-Gaillarde (central southern France). Austria recorded temperatures 3.1°C above normal, its warmest July since records began in 1767. In Vienna, a new record daily minimum temperature of 26.9°C was measured. August brought extremely high temperatures to eastern and central Europe, with anomalies exceeding +4°C. In Belarus (Brest) and Lithuania (Kaunas), record daily maximum temperatures of 36.7°C and 35.3°C, respectively, were observed.

The unusual and long-lasting high temperatures were reflected in the fact that warm days and nights (see section 2b5) were more than 40% more frequent than in a normal summer (Fig. SB7.2). High nighttime temperatures in particular can affect human health, and in Belgium and the Netherlands, strongly increased mortality was registered during this period. During July and August, Hungary reported a record 27 days of extremely warm conditions, and Budapest experienced a record-breaking 34 tropical nights, the most since records began in 1901.

The heat wave was also associated with sub-regional severe rain deficits. Southern Spain and Portugal each received only 10 mm rain per month during June, July, and August, which corresponds to less than 40% of their normal totals. After several weeks of persistent heat and continuous rain deficit, southern Portugal and northeastern continental Europe suf-

fered from extreme drought conditions (Fig. SB7. 3) in August. On 31 August, 74% of Portugal was categorized as severely or extremely dry. As a result, wildfires occurred in the Mediterranean from Iberia to Turkey and in the Balkan States. The rain deficit also caused low water of the rivers Elbe, Rhine, and Danube, which affected shipping. The river Dnjepr in Belarus had record low levels.

In contrast, several regions experienced well-above-normal precipitation during summer, especially in Greece, western Turkey, and Sicily. The rain surplus was generated by heavy thunderstorms induced by anomalous warm sea surface temperatures (anomalies up to +4°C) in the Tyrrhenian Sea.

<figure><img src="image_276.png" /><figcaption>**FIG. SB7.3.** DWD standardized precipitation index (1961–90 average) for Aug 2015. (Source: Deutscher Wetterdienst.)</figcaption></figure>

exceeded 100 mm. The highest amount of 144.8 mm was observed in Algoz, near the southern coast.

## 5) MEDITERRANEAN AND BALKAN STATES

This region includes Italy, Malta, Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania, Macedonia, Greece, Bulgaria, and Turkey.

### (i) Temperature

Averaged over the year, temperature anomalies in 2015 were between +1°C in the central and western Mediterranean and +2°C over the Balkans. Temperatures up to 3°C above normal occurred near the Alps. Much of Montenegro experienced its warmest year on record. Slovenia observed its third warmest year.

Winter 2014/15 was warmer than normal (+2° to

+3°C) especially in northern parts of the region. Only some parts of southern Greece and southern Italy/Sicily had below-average temperatures, with anomalies up to -1°C. Croatia saw a mild season and registered positive anomalies up to +2.7°C in northeastern areas.

Above-average temperatures dominated almost the entire region in spring when the Azores high extended far into the European continent. Serbia recorded temperature anomalies of +2°C in northern areas. Croatia had positive anomalies of +1.8°C in its northern areas. During April, colder-than-normal conditions occurred over southeastern areas. In central Turkey, temperature anomalies ranged from -2° to -3°C.

Most of the region experienced a very warm summer, induced by prolonged anticyclonic conditions
centered over continental Europe. The northern Balkan States recorded large anomalies that ranged between +3°C and +4°C; Serbia and Croatia reported anomalies of +2.1°C to +3.8°C. In contrast, Greece's Peloponnese had only slightly-above-normal conditions.

During autumn, temperatures remained above the long-term mean. With the exception of northern Italy, which had only slightly-above-average temperatures, anomalies ranged between +1°C and +2°C. Southern Croatia reported temperature departures up to +2.8°C. The highest anomalies (+3°C to +4°C) occurred at the Bosporus, due to prevailing high pressure.

The year ended with contrasting conditions. While the northernmost areas of the region were under the influence of extremely strong westerlies and associated mild temperatures (3°-4°C above normal) during December, the southern Balkans experienced cool anomalies of -1°C.

## (ii) Precipitation

With the exception of northern Italy, annual precipitation totals were above normal. The largest rainfall departures occurred in Sicily, eastern Greece, Bulgaria, and western Turkey, where 125%-170% of normal totals were observed. In the southern Alpine region, drier-than-normal conditions of 60%-80% of normal were recorded. Croatia reported just 63% of its normal precipitation in the northwest.

Winter 2014/15 was very wet for most regions (hatched in Fig. 7.37a). Over the Balkans, precipitation totals of 125%-170% of normal were measured. Southern Serbia had 175% of normal rainfall, and localized areas in Croatia observed 225% of normal.

Precipitation totals in spring mainly ranged between 60% and 125% of normal. While drier-than-normal conditions occurred near the Southern Alps and in Albania, central and southern Italy, as well as easternmost parts of the region, experienced a surplus of precipitation. In Serbia, totals ranged from 67% of normal in eastern areas to 180% of normal in localized spots. Croatia experienced dry conditions in northwestern parts of the country, with 45% of normal precipitation. In April, above-average 500-hPa heights over Europe led to well-below-average precipitation over southern regions. Sicily and southern Peloponnese had very dry conditions with rainfall less than 20% of normal.

During summer, below-average rain in the north of the region contrasted with wet conditions in the south. Greece and parts of Turkey recorded totals greater than 170% of normal, whereas most of the

Balkans received below-average precipitation. Eastern Serbia and Croatia reported 25%-30% of normal rainfall. In June, heavy rains fell over northern and central Turkey, bringing totals up to 250% of normal, while July was exceptionally dry across the entire region. Most areas observed less than 40% of normal rainfall, except parts of Italy that received 125% of normal.

Autumn remained wet over the Balkans, whereas the Alpine region recorded below-normal precipitation. Serbia reported very wet conditions, with up to 230% of normal precipitation, and above-normal precipitation prevailed in Bulgaria and northern Greece. October contributed to the overall surplus of rain, when the dipole pattern associated with a split flow brought storms and above-average precipitation across southern Europe. Nearly all areas of the region received more than 170% of their normal precipitation. Croatia rainfall was 140%-410% of normal. In contrast, November was very dry in the Alpine region, with less than 20% of normal rain in northern Italy.

Dry conditions were also evident in December 2015, associated with an exceptionally strong southwesterly flow. Nearly all of Turkey, Italy, and the northern Balkans received less than 40% of their normal rainfall, with some areas observing less than 20% of normal.

## (iii) Notable events

Southern Italy was hit by heavy thunderstorms on 5 September. The area surrounding Naples observed hail, the largest with a diameter of 11.5 cm and a weight of 350 g. The hail injured several people and animals, and caused damage to vehicles, houses, trees, and crops.

During 13-14 September, extremely intense precipitation over the Emilia Romania in central-north Italy caused a flood that destroyed roads and bridges. Record-breaking rainfall of 123.6 mm within 1 hour (189.0 mm within 3 hours) at Cabanne and 107.6 mm within 1 hour (201.8 mm within 3 hours) in Salsomino caused floods in the basin of the Aveto, Trebbia, and Nure Rivers. At Nure River, the water levels reached 7 m; the water entered the ground floors of nearby houses.

Bosnia and Herzegovina reported a nationwide heat wave that lasted six days, starting on 15 September. Many new September maximum temperature records were observed, for example, 38.0°C in Sarajevo and 40.9°C in Zenica, both on 18 September.

## 6) EASTERN EUROPE

This region includes the European part of Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, and Romania.
### (i) Temperature

Averaged over the year, temperatures across eastern Europe were well above normal, with departures mostly in the +2° to +3°C range. Belarus had its warmest year on record, 2.6°C above normal, surpassing the previous record years of 1989 and 2008. Moldova had its second warmest year, after 2007, and recorded departures from +2.1° to +2.7°C across the country.

Temperatures in winter 2014/15 were extremely mild, especially in northwestern and eastern European Russia, where anomalies exceeded +4°C (hatched in Fig. 7.36a). Belarus reported a national temperature 3.8°C above average, its fifth warmest such period since records began in 1945. In February, above-average 500-hPa heights over central Siberia caused widespread anomalous mild conditions across eastern Europe (more than +4°C). At the end of February, Moldova observed daily temperatures 5°-6.5°C above the long-term mean, which, on average, occurs once every 10 years.

Spring remained warmer than normal, with a meridional gradient in the temperature anomalies due to prolonged high pressure over central Siberia. While northern European Russia experienced anomalies that exceeded +4°C, the Caucasus region had near-normal conditions.

Summer was characterized by high pressure over continental Europe, whereas northern areas were affected by frequent cyclones. In northeastern areas of the region, below-normal temperature anomalies as low as -1°C were registered, while positive anomalies up to +4°C were recorded in westernmost and southernmost places. July was very cool in northern European Russia (down to -4°C) as a result of SLP anomalies of -12 hPa over western Siberia.

During autumn, temperature departures of -1°C in eastern European Russia contrasted with positive anomalies between +1° and +2°C in the remaining regions. Southeastern Ukraine and southern European Russia observed temperatures up to +3°C due to advection of subtropical air masses.

The year ended with significant mild conditions. Moldova reported positive deviations of +2.7°C to +4.5°C in December. On the 27th, areas across Moldova set new records in maximum temperature that ranged from 14° to 18°C.

### (ii) Precipitation

Annual precipitation totals in 2015 were above average (>125%) over northeastern areas of the region, while southwestern areas had near-normal conditions. Only the Caucasus region, western Ukraine, and northern Moldova recorded rainfall less than 80% of normal.

Winter 2014/15 was characterized by a strong Icelandic low associated with stronger-than-normal westerly winds that brought a precipitation surplus of more than 125% to most of European Russia (hatched in Fig. 7.37a). Along Romania's Black Sea coast, 170% of normal precipitation fell. Only southwestern Russia and Ukraine received below-average totals, less than 80% of normal.

In spring, precipitation was near normal for the westernmost areas but above average in the Black Sea region. The eastern half of Ukraine recorded totals more than 170% of normal. In contrast, parts of northern European Russia experienced drier-than-normal conditions.

During summer, prevailing high pressure conditions featured a strong rain deficit in western and southern areas of eastern Europe, where less than 60% of normal totals were observed (dotted in Fig. 7.37c). Northern and eastern European Russia were influenced by frequent low pressure systems that brought 125%-170% of normal totals to the region. August was dominated by exceptionally dry conditions in western and southern areas, with less than 20% of normal rainfall. Belarus reported just 16% of normal totals, experiencing its driest August on record since 1945.

Precipitation totals in autumn were unevenly distributed. While the majority of areas had near-normal precipitation, the western Black Sea region received more than 170% of normal, and Romania observed up to 250% of normal precipitation in places. In contrast, western European Russia recorded below-average totals, with some localized observations just 60% of normal.

In December, exceptionally strong westerlies brought well-above-average precipitation to most of the region, with more than 250% of normal totals measured in southern places.

### (iii) Notable events

Belarus reported a thunderstorm on 14 June with hailstones measuring 3 cm in diameter. On 27 July, 34.5 mm of rain fell within 30 minutes at station Zhitkovichi in the south.

Moldova experienced high temperatures during 1-2 September. Record-breaking maximum air temperatures of 35.3°C and 38.6°C were measured.

## 7) MIDDLE EAST

This region includes Israel, Cyprus, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, West Kazakhstan, Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan.
### (i) Temperature

Annual temperatures were higher than normal, at +1° to +2°C above the long-term mean throughout the Middle East, except for Cyprus, where near-normal conditions prevailed. Armenia observed its third warmest year since records began in 1961 (+1.8°C) and Israel also had its third warmest year in its 65-year record.

Winter 2014/15 was characterized by anomalous temperatures between +2° and +3°C, associated with above-average 500-hPa heights and advection of subtropical air (Fig. 7.37a). Armenia reported significantly warmer conditions with positive anomalies of +2.6°C; locally, in January and February, temperatures were 4°-5°C above average.

In spring, temperatures were near to slightly below normal in the Caucasus region and western Kazakhstan, while the eastern Mediterranean countries experienced warmer-than-normal conditions (+1°C to +2°C). March contributed to the positive seasonal anomalies, due to a combination of high pressure over western Russia and warm air advection from subtropical regions. Armenia observed a national temperature 1.4°C above normal.

During summer, prevailing anticyclonic conditions induced positive temperature anomalies across the entire region (hatched and dotted areas in Fig. 7.36e). Western Kazakhstan and the Caucasus region had anomalies up to +3°C, and the eastern Mediterranean countries also experienced higher-than-normal temperatures of 1°-2°C above average. Armenia observed its second warmest summer, behind 2006, in its 55-year record, with anomalies of +2.4°C. The highest values were recorded in June, where most stations measured temperatures more than 3°C above the long-term mean. In Israel, colder-than-normal anomalies in June (-1°C) contrasted with well-above-average temperatures in August (+2°C).

Temperatures in autumn remained anomalously high in the Middle East. The eastern Mediterranean region experienced arewide anomalies of +3°C, whereas the Caucasus and western Kazakhstan were 1°-2°C above normal. Some places in northwestern Kazakhstan saw temperature anomalies down to -1°C. September was very warm, as a high pressure system associated with large subsidence developed over western Kazakhstan. Israel observed temperatures 2.5°-3°C above normal, marking its warmest September on record, while Cyprus reported its second warmest, with anomalies of +2°C. Armenia also had its second warmest September (2010 was warmer), exceeding the long-term mean by 3°C.

In December, colder-than-normal temperatures in the southern part of the region contrasted with exceptional positive anomalies in northern areas. Areawide anomalies exceeded +4°C in western Kazakhstan.

### (ii) Precipitation

Averaged over the year, much of the region saw near-normal precipitation totals. Only western Kazakhstan and the Caucasus region experienced drier-than-normal conditions (< 80%), while much of Jordan received totals up to 125% of normal.

Winter 2014/15 was mostly drier than normal, with as little as 60% of normal precipitation. Only areas in the southern Caucasus region and parts of western Kazakhstan received above-average totals (more than 125% of normal). During February, westernmost Kazakhstan experienced very dry conditions, less than 20% of normal precipitation, whereas northern Israel saw 120%-170% of normal rainfall.

In spring, above-average precipitation in northern areas of the region contrasted with a rain deficit in the eastern Mediterranean countries due to significant above-average SLP. Locally, less than 40% of normal total precipitation was received in some places.

During summer, conditions changed when the region was under the influence of significantly above-average SLP (dotted in Fig. 7.37c). Azerbaijan reported a very dry summer, with less than 40% of normal precipitation. In contrast, the eastern Mediterranean countries mostly received an extreme surplus of rain, locally exceeding 500% of normal in some areas, despite its being the dry season.

In autumn, western Kazakhstan and much of the eastern Mediterranean recorded 60%-80% of normal precipitation, whereas the Caucasus region received 125% of normal. September was dry, whereas October was wet. Israel reported 130% of normal rainfall in the central and southern coastal plain.

In December, low pressure over central European Russia brought precipitation to western Kazakhstan that totaled more than 167% of normal. The Mediterranean region was affected by a high pressure ridge that caused a rain deficit, as little as 20% of normal, in the eastern half and parts of the Caucasus.

### (iii) Notable events

Cyprus experienced heavy rainfall accompanied by floods during 5-6 January. Station Kelokedara received 276.6 mm of rain within 24 hours, the highest 1-day precipitation total during January since 1916.

On 7 January, Azerbaijan reported a daily maximum temperature of 15°C, the highest for January since records began in 1900.
During 6–8 January and 18–19 February, Cyprus received heavy snowfall, with 15 cm accumulation in the first event. In both events, schools in mountainous areas were closed.

On 13–14 June, Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia, was hit by heavy rain and thunderstorms. Flooding and an associated landslide led to 12 fatalities and damaged the local zoo, where many animals also perished.

From 25 to 30 October, Israel was hit by a major storm with strong winds of 13–20 m s⁻¹ and maximum wind gusts of 36.6 m s⁻¹. Hailstones with diameters of 4–5 cm damaged agriculture crops. On 28 October, 80–85 mm rain fell within 2–3 hours and caused floods in central and eastern parts of the country. A station near Tel Aviv received a monthly accumulation of 246 mm, which is a national record.

### g. Asia

This section covers Russia, East Asia, South Asia, and Southwest Asia. There is no information for Southeast Asia as no corresponding author was identified for the region. Throughout this section the normal periods used vary by region. The current standard is the 1981–2010 average for both temperature and precipitation, but earlier normal periods are still in use in several countries in the region. All seasons mentioned in this section refer to the Northern Hemisphere.

## 1) OVERVIEW

Based on data from WMO CLIMAT reports, annual mean surface air temperatures during 2015 were above normal across most of Asia and Siberia (Fig. 7.38). Annual precipitation amounts were above normal in eastern China, from southern Mongolia to northwestern China, and from western Siberia to northern India, and they were below normal in Southeast Asia (Fig. 7.39).

Figure 7.40 shows seasonal temperature and precipitation departures from the 1981–2010 average during the year. Seasonal mean temperatures were above normal across Siberia in all seasons, except for the east in spring and the south in autumn. Temperatures were also above normal in northern China in winter, in parts of central and Southeast Asia in spring, in Southeast Asia in summer, and across Southeast Asia and India in autumn. Temperatures were below normal from central China to India in winter, from the western part of central Asia to India in spring, from eastern China to central Pakistan and in European Russia in summer, and across central Asia in autumn.

<figure><img src="image_277.png" /><figcaption>Fig. 7.38. Annual mean temperature anomalies (°C; 1981–2010 base period) over Asia in 2015. (Source: Japan Meteorological Agency.)</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_278.png" /><figcaption>Fig. 7.39. Annual precipitation (% of normal; 1981–2010 base period) over Asia in 2015. (Source: Japan Meteorological Agency.)</figcaption></figure>

Seasonal precipitation amounts were above normal in large areas from western to central Siberia in all seasons, especially in winter and summer. In contrast, they were below normal in Southeast Asia, especially in summer and autumn. They showed greater spatial variability across East, central, and South Asia.

Surface climate anomalies were associated with several distinct circulation features. Convective activity was suppressed over Southeast Asia except in winter (see Fig. 7.41), in association with El Niño conditions. In summer, the monsoon circulation over the Indian Ocean was weaker than normal (see Fig. 7.41c), and overall activity of the Asian summer monsoon was below normal. The northwestward seasonal extension of the northwest Pacific subtropical high was weaker than normal (see Fig. 7.42c), contributing to cool wet summer conditions from southeastern China to western Japan.

## 2) RUSSIA—O. N. Bulygina, N. N. Korshunova, M. U. Bardin, and N. M. Arzhanova

Analyses are based on hydrometeorological observations conducted at Roshydromet Observa-
<figure><img src="image_279.png" /><figcaption>**FIG. 7.40.** Seasonal temperature anomalies (°C, left column) and precipitation ratios (%, right column) over Asia in 2015 for (a), (b) winter (Dec–Feb 2014/2015); (c), (d) spring (Mar–May); (e), (f) summer (Jun–Aug); and (g), (h) autumn (Sep–Nov), with respect to the 1981–2010 base period. (Source: Japan Meteorological Agency.)</figcaption></figure>

tion Network. Datasets are officially registered and available at meteo.ru/english/climate/cl_data.php. The national average temperature and precipitation records began in 1935, while seasonal averages are considered reliable only since 1939.

### (i) Temperature

The mean annual Russia-averaged air temperature was 2.2°C above the 1961–90 normal (Fig. 7.43), making 2015 the warmest year since records began in 1935. Positive mean annual air temperature anomalies were observed across all regions of Russia, with the largest anomalies in northern European Russia and western Siberia (Fig. 7.38).

For Russia as a whole, winter was record warm, with the mean temperature 3.6°C above normal (Fig. 7.43). Central European Russia experienced mean

temperature anomalies of +4°–6°C, and +6°–8°C anomalies were observed across the Far East. Daily temperature records were exceeded many times across European Russia. Daily and monthly record-breaking air temperatures were repeatedly registered in many cities, including Moscow, St. Petersburg, Tambov, Voronezh, Tomsk, and Kemerovo.

Spring 2015 was also very warm, with a Russia-averaged mean seasonal air temperature anomaly of +2.3°C (Fig. 7.43), the fourth highest in the 77-year period of record. In northern European Russia and western Siberia, the spring mean air temperature anomaly reached a record-breaking value of +5.2°C.

Summer 2015 continued to be warmer-than-average across Russia, with a national seasonal air temperature anomaly of +1.2°C, the seventh warmest on record (Fig. 7.43).

Autumn was mild over most of Russia with a seasonal mean temperature anomaly of +0.9°C (Fig. 7.43). Positive anomalies were recorded in all regions, except southern West Siberia. From 11 to 30 September, all regions of European Russia experienced abnormally warm weather, and many meteorological stations, from Novaya Zemlya to northern Caucasia, registered several daily record-breaking maximum temperatures.

In December (Fig. 7.44), positive anomalies of mean monthly air temperature were recorded over a vast area, from the western boundaries to the Sea of Okhotsk coast. For the whole of Russia, the anomaly was +4.1°C, the second highest on record. The largest anomalies occurred in northwestern European Russia and in the central Krasnoyarsk Territory and southern West Siberia. In St. Petersburg, with nearly 200 years of meteorological observations, the December 2015 mean monthly air temperature of +2.1°C was the second highest for December on record (see inset in Fig. 7.44).

### (ii) Precipitation

In 2015, Russia as a whole received slightly above-normal precipitation, 106% of the 1961–90 normal (Fig. 7.45).
<figure><img src="image_280.png" /></figure>

FIG. 7.41. Seasonal mean anomalies of 850-hPa stream function (contour, $1 \times 10^6 \text{ m}^2 \text{ s}^{-1}$) using data from the JRA-55 reanalysis and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR, shading, $\text{W m}^{-2}$) using data originally provided by NOAA for (a) winter (Dec–Feb 2014/15), (b) spring (Mar–May), (c) summer (Jun–Aug), and (d) autumn (Sep–Nov), with respect to the 1981–2010 base period. (Source: Japan Meteorological Agency.)

<figure><img src="image_281.png" /></figure>

FIG. 7.42. Seasonal mean anomalies of 500-hPa geopotential height (contour, gpm) and 850-hPa temperature (shading, °C) for (a) winter (Dec–Feb 2014/15), (b) spring (Mar–May), (c) summer (Jun–Aug), and (d) autumn (Sep–Nov), with respect to the 1981–2010 base period. Data from the JRA-55 reanalysis. (Source: Japan Meteorological Agency.)

Winter precipitation was 119% of normal, tying (with 2007/08) as the second wettest since 1935 (the wettest winter was 1965/66, 136% of normal). In spring, Russia on average received 115% of normal precipitation. Over European Russia, a significant precipitation deficit was recorded in March.

The summer precipitation total averaged over Russia was normal (99%). Near-normal precipitation was also recorded in autumn, 101% of normal. In December, Atlantic cyclones brought heavy precipitation to northwestern European Russia, the Urals, southern western Siberia, and the central Krasnoyarsk Territory.

### (iii) Notable events

On 14 January, Kazan reached +2.3°C, the warmest for this date since records began in 1880.

During the last five days of January, the city of Magadan received nearly five times its normal monthly precipitation.

On 12 April, strong winds ($25–31 \text{ m s}^{-1}$) in Khakassia caused a rapid propagation of natural fires that killed five people and injured 121. The fire destroyed 1205 homes.

On 24–25 June, heavy rain fell in Sochi, with 122 mm of precipitation observed in less than 11 hours. As a result, roads, 2000 houses, and the railroad station were inundated. Damage was estimated to be 760 million rubles (~10 million U.S. dollars). In the city of Adler, 211 mm of precipitation fell in 18 hours; 200 houses, the local airport, and the railroad station were inundated. Damage was estimated to be 10–13 billion rubles (150–195 million U.S. dollars), mostly associated with the temporary closure of the airport.

On 11 July, heavy rain and hail fell in the Ulyanovsk Region, with 31 mm of precipitation falling in 48 minutes. Hail with diameters reaching 5.6 cm damaged roofs, glass panes, and 150 cars.
<figure><img src="image_282.png" /></figure>

<figure><img src="image_283.png" /><figcaption>FIG. 7.43. Mean annual (1935–2015) and seasonal (1939–2015) air temperature anomalies (°C) averaged over the Russian territory for 1939–2015 (base period: 1961–90). Seasons are Dec–Feb (winter) 2014/15 and Mar–May (spring), Jun–Aug (summer), and Sep–Nov (autumn) 2015. The smoothed annual mean time series (11-point binomial filter) is shown in red in the top panel.</figcaption></figure>

On 7–8 September, as a result of heavy rain (20 mm in 4 hours), large hail (2.0 cm in diameter), and strong winds (up to 24 m s⁻¹) in Tatarstan, 19 people were injured, 31 cars were damaged, trees were toppled, and roofs were damaged.

3) EAST ASIA—P. Zhang, A. Goto, S.-Y. Yim, and L. Oyunjargal

Countries considered in this section include: China, Japan, Korea, and Mongolia. Unless otherwise noted, anomalies refer to a normal period of 1981–2010.

### (i) Temperature

The annual mean temperature over China was 10.5°C, 0.9°C above normal, the highest since records began in 1961. The seasonal mean surface temperature anomalies were +1.1°C, +1.0°C, +0.3°C, and +0.8°C for winter, spring, summer, and autumn, respectively. Annual mean temperatures were above normal across Japan, especially in northern Japan and Okinawa/Amami. In western Japan, temperatures were below normal in summer and autumn but above normal for the year as a whole.

The annual mean surface air temperature over the Republic of Korea was 13.4°C, 0.9°C above normal,

the second warmest since national records began in 1973. In 2015, temperatures for most months except summer were higher than normal. May was the warmest on record, at 1.4°C above normal. The annual mean temperature over Mongolia for 2015 was 1.8°C, 1.3°C above normal, the second warmest since national records began in 1961 and 0.8°C warmer than 2014. Most monthly mean temperature anomalies for Mongolia were above normal, ranging from +0.2° to +4.4°C. January was the warmest month in 2015 with respect to departures from average, 4.4°C above normal and marking the warmest January for Mongolia in the 55-year record. Positive anomalies were as high as 5°–7°C in some areas.

### (ii) Precipitation

The mean annual total precipitation in China was 648.8 mm, 103% of normal and 2% higher than 2014. The total seasonal precipitation was below normal in winter (94% of normal) and summer (91% of normal), and near-normal in spring but above normal in autumn (126% of normal). In 2015, the major rain belt of China lay south of its normal position, over areas from the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River to South China, especially during summer and autumn, associated with a weak East Asian monsoon. Regionally, total annual precipitation was significantly above normal in the Yangtze River basin (112% of normal, the wettest in 17 years) and in the Zhujiang River basin (111% of normal), and below normal in Northeast China (94% of normal), in the Liaohe River basin (86% of normal), and in the Yellow River basin (73% of normal, the driest in 13 years). The rainy season in the Meiyu region started approximately 16 days early on 26 May and ended around 17 days late on 27 July with about 169% of normal precipitation. The rainy season in North China started on 23 July (5 days later than normal) and ended on 17 August (slightly earlier than normal), and was the second driest season in the past 13 years.

In western Japan, annual precipitation amounts were above normal, especially on the Pacific side, since the seasonal northward expansion of the North Pacific subtropical high was weak and convection was often active in summer. On the Pacific side of eastern Japan, annual precipitation amounts were also above normal, including record-breaking rain in September.
SIDEBAR 7.2: EXTREMELY WET CONDITIONS IN JAPAN IN LATE SUMMER 2015

From mid-August to early September 2015, most of western to northern Japan experienced unseasonably wet conditions. Regional average precipitation totals in the 32 days starting on 11 August were 245% and 209% of normal for the Pacific side of western Japan and eastern Japan, respectively. Sunshine duration averaged over the Sea of Japan side of eastern Japan was nearly half the normal amount. Toward the end of the period, record-breaking torrential rainfalls led to large river overflows and flooding in parts of eastern Japan.

The lasting, extremely wet weather conditions were associated with low pressure systems repeatedly forming and migrating eastward along a frontal zone that persisted over the Japanese Archipelago. The persistence of the frontal zone in turn appears related to warm air and vorticity advection in the middle troposphere induced by nearly stationary cyclonic circulation anomalies to the west of Japan (Fif. SB7.4). Meanwhile the northwestern Pacific subtropical high, which would bring hot and sunny

days during a normal summer, shifted far southward of its normal position and became a factor in enhancing southwesterly moist air inflow toward Japan in the lower troposphere. These anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns were sustained in connection with suppressed convective activity across the Asian summer monsoon area (Fig. SB7.5), which is consistent with that observed in past El Niño events. Upper tropospheric wave trains propagating from the west across the Eurasian continent may also have played a part in sustaining the cyclonic anomalies to the west of Japan.

A further contribution to the above-normal precipitation amount came from two tropical cyclones during the second week of September. Typhoon Etau made landfall on mainland Japan and Typhoon Kilo passed northward over the Pacific off the coast of Japan, both of which induced moist air inflow and set the environment conducive to torrential rainfalls observed in parts of eastern to northern Japan.

<figure><img src="image_284.png" /><figcaption>FIG. SB7.4. Geopotential height anomalies (m) at 500 hPa averaged over 11 Aug to 11 Sep 2015 (base period: 1981–2010). (Source: Japanese 55-year reanalysis.)</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_285.png" /><figcaption>FIG. SB7.5. Velocity potential anomalies at 200 hPa (thick and thin contours at intervals of 2.0 × 10⁶ and 0.5 × 10⁶ m² s⁻¹, respectively) and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR; shading) anomalies averaged over the same period as Fig. SB7.4 (base period: 1981–2010). Arrows indicate associated divergent flow, where it is significantly different from climatology. [Source: Japanese 55-year reanalysis (velocity potential) and NOAA/CPC (OLR).]</figcaption></figure>

In the Republic of Korea, the annual total precipitation was 948.2 mm, 72% of normal, the third lowest since national records began in 1973. In Mongolia, the annual average precipitation in 2015 was 202 mm, near normal. However, the temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation was unfavorable for agriculture. At the beginning of the growing season, late June was warmer and drier than normal in Mongolia, resulting in drought and economic losses in the

agriculture sector. November was the wettest month of the year and wettest November on record (181% of normal) while July was the driest month of the year (80% of normal). The high November precipitation total included a lot of snowfall, with snow covering at least 80% of Mongolia during the month, making livestock husbandry difficult. Warm conditions in December helped alleviate this somewhat.
<figure><img src="image_286.png" /><figcaption>FIG. 7.44. Air temperature anomalies (°C) in Dec 2015. Insets show the time series of mean monthly and mean daily air temperatures (°C) for the month at meteorological stations St. Petersburg, Eniseisk, and Vanavara.</figcaption></figure>

### (iii) Notable events

Liaoning province in North China had its driest summer since records began in 1961, which contributed to severe drought in the area. Xinjiang had 25 days of daily maximum temperature exceeding 35°C (normal is 10 days).

In early September, the Kanto and Tohoku regions of Japan experienced record-breaking rainfall, due to warm, moist airflow associated with approaching typhoons Kilo and Etau. Total precipitation during 7–11 September was 647.5 mm at Imaichi in Tochigi Prefecture and 556.0 mm at Hippo in Miyagi Prefecture. Heavy rain caused large river overflows and serious damage.

Typhoon Mujigae in October was the strongest typhoon to make landfall in Guangdong province, China, since records began in 1949. The storm caused a major disaster, with 24 deaths and direct economic losses estimated at over 4.5 billion U.S. dollars (see section 4e4 for more details).

The worst large-scale and persistent haze event

over China in 2015 occurred in Huanghuai and North China from late November to early December. It had a maximum extent of 41.7 km², with particulate matter smaller than 2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5) exceeding 150 µg m⁻³ and visibility below 3 km.

<figure><img src="image_287.png" /><figcaption>FIG. 7.45. Annual precipitation anomaly (% of normal) averaged over the Russian territory for the period 1935–2015. The smoothed time series (11-point bino-mial filter) is shown as a continuous line (base period: 1961–90).</figcaption></figure>
### 4) SOUTH ASIA—A. K. Srivastava, J. V. Revadekar, and M. Rajeevan

Countries in this section include: Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. Climate anomalies are relative to the 1961–90 normal. Monsoon precipitation is defined relative to a 50-year base period (1951–2000) because there is strong interdecadal variability in Indian monsoon precipitation (Guhathakurta et al. 2015). In the text below, this is referred to as the long-term average (LTA).

#### (i) Temperature

South Asia generally experienced well-above-normal temperatures in 2015. The annual mean land surface air temperature averaged over India was 0.7°C above the 1961–90 average, making 2015 the third warmest year since records commenced in 1901 (Fig. 7.46; 2009 and 2010 are warmest and second warmest, respectively). Record warmth was observed during July–September (+0.9°C) and October–December (+1.1°C).

#### (ii) Precipitation

The summer monsoon set in over Kerala (southern peninsular India) on 5 June, 4 days later than normal, but covered the entire country on 26 June, 20 days ahead of its normal date of 15 July. The pace of advance of the monsoon over different parts of the country was the third fastest in the 1950–2015 period.

Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) during 2015 was significantly below normal, 86% of its LTA of 890 mm. ISMR during 2015 was characterized by marked spatial and temporal variability. The eastern/northeastern region of the country received normal rainfall overall, with regional variability, while the central, peninsular, and northwestern regions of the country received below-normal rainfall (Fig. 7.47). Rainfall over many parts of northern, western, and central India was less than 70% of the LTA. Rainfall activity was also variable in time. During the first half of the season (1 June–31 July), the country received 95% of the LTA, falling to 77% of the LTA in the second half of the season (1 August–30 September).

During the monsoon season, only 1 meteorological subdivision (West Rajasthan) of 36 received excess rainfall. Eighteen subdivisions received normal rainfall, and the remaining 17 received below-normal rainfall. Except for June, rainfall averaged

over the country was below normal on most days during the season (Fig. 7.48).

During winter (January–February), rainfall over the country was 92% of its LTA, while it was above normal (138% of the LTA) during the premonsoon season (March–May). During the post-monsoon season (October–December), it was 77% of the LTA.

The northeast monsoon (NEM) typically sets in over southern peninsular India during October and over Sri Lanka in late November. The NEM generally contributes 30%–50% of the annual rainfall over southern peninsular India and Sri Lanka as a whole. The 2015 NEM seasonal rainfall over southern pen-

<figure><img src="image_288.png" /><figcaption>FIG. 7.46. Annual mean temperature anomalies (base period: 1961–90) averaged over India for the period 1901–2015. The smoothed time series (9-point binomial filter) is shown as a continuous line.</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_289.png" /><figcaption>FIG. 7.47. Spatial distribution of monsoon seasonal (Jun–Sep) rainfall (mm) over India in 2015 for (a) observed rainfall, (b) normal rainfall, and (c) the difference between (a) and (b).</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_290.png" /><figcaption>FIG. 7.48. Daily standardized rainfall time series averaged over the monsoon core zone over India (1 Jun–30 Sep).</figcaption></figure>
insular India and Sri Lanka was above normal (132% of the LTA). Sri Lanka received below-normal rainfall during its summer monsoon season (May–September). However, northeast monsoon rainfall activity over the island nation during October–December was enhanced.

Pakistan, at the western edge of the pluvial region of the South Asian monsoon, generally receives 60%-70% of its annual rainfall during its summer monsoon season (July–September). In 2015, summer monsoon rainfall over Pakistan was 117% of the LTA and was marked by spatial and temporal variability. Southwestern/southern Pakistan received below-normal rainfall, while other regions received normal or above-normal rainfall during the season. Bangladesh also received above-normal rainfall overall during its summer monsoon season.

### (iii) Notable events

A severe Nor'wester (a line of strong thunderstorms) affected 12 districts of Bihar (eastern India) during the nighttime/early morning hours of 22-23 April. Over 50 lives were lost.

Heat wave conditions prevailed over central, peninsular, and northern parts of India during the second half of May. Maximum temperatures were more than 5°C above normal at many eastern and central stations for several days. Some stations in Odissa and coastal Andhra Pradesh reported temperatures of near 47°C during 23-26 May. Overall, the intense heat over central and peninsular parts of the country during May took a toll of around 2500 lives, and more than 2000 deaths were reported in the south Indian states of Telangana and Andhra Pradesh.

One of the most severe heat waves since 1980 affected Karachi, Pakistan, during the second half of June and took a toll of more than 1000 lives. Temperatures reached 44°C for two days during the period. The heat wave coincided with the beginning of the holy month of Ramadan, when many Muslims do not eat or drink during daylight hours, increasing susceptibility to heat stroke.

During 25-26 June, heavy rain and floods associated with a deep depression over the Arabian Sea took a toll of more than 80 lives in Gujarat in western India.

Floods caused about 70 deaths in West Bengal (eastern India) during 30 July-5 August.

Many parts of Bangladesh experienced severe floods from late June through the first week of August. An estimated 30 people were killed and around one million were affected.

Very heavy rainfall during an active period of the NEM during 9-17 November and 2-5 December led to more than 350 fatalities in Tamil Nadu (southern-

most India) and more than 50 deaths in the adjoining state of Andhra Pradesh. Heavy rainfall and flooding affected around 1.8 million people in Tamil Nadu. Tambaram (near Chennai) reported an all-time 24-h record rainfall of 490 mm on 2 December, while Chennai reported 345 mm of rain on the same day. Economic loss due to these events was estimated to be around 2 billion rupees (~29 million U.S. dollars).

Northeast monsoon activity during the first week of December also led to floods in Sri Lanka, which caused 40 deaths and displaced more than 1.2 million residents.

### 5) SOUTHWEST ASIA—F. Rahimzadeh, M. Khoshkam, S. Fateh, and A. Kazemi

This subsection currently covers only Iran. Turkey is incorporated in the Europe subsection. Climate anomalies are relative to the 1981-2010 normal.

#### (i) Temperature

Winter 2014/15 and spring 2015 were considerably warmer than normal, with anomalies up to +6.4°C during winter. Most of the country was also warmer than normal in summer and near-normal overall in autumn (Fig. 7.49).

#### (ii) Precipitation

Generally, in 2015, Iran experienced drier-than-normal conditions in winter and spring, while summer and autumn were wetter than normal (Fig. 7.50).

During winter 2014/15, 30%-90% of normal precipitation fell across most parts of the country. Areas with average or above-average rainfall (up to 170% of normal) were confined to a small part in the north-west of the country adjacent to the Turkish border and a small part in the southeast. During spring, precipitation amounts were 30%-90% of normal across most of the country. The middle of the country received more than 90% of normal precipitation.

In summer, most of the country experienced normal or above-normal precipitation (90%-170% of normal). During autumn, precipitation was more than 90% of normal in much of the northern and southern regions, while the rest of the country received 30%-90% of normal.

### (iii) Notable events

Significant dust storms during spring and summer spread over many parts of the country, especially southern and southwestern Iran.
<figure><img src="image_291.png" /></figure>

**FIG. 7.49.** Seasonal mean surface temperature anomalies (°C) in (a) summer (Jun-Aug) and (b) autumn (Sep-Nov). (Source: I.R. of Iran Meteorological Organization & National Center for Drought and Disaster Risk Management.)

<figure><img src="image_292.png" /></figure>

**FIG. 7.50.** Observed precipitation over Iran (% of normal) for (a) winter (Dec-Feb 2014/15), (b) spring (Mar-May), (c) summer (Jun-Aug), and (d) autumn (Sep-Nov). (Source: I.R. of Iran Meteorological Organization.)

### h. Oceania

#### 1) OVERVIEW—J. A. Renwick

During the first half of 2015, substantial warming of the equatorial Pacific sea surface and subsurface waters clearly signaled the arrival of El Niño. Extremes typical of El Niño onset were observed across the region, including rainfall extremes and an abundance of early-season tropical cyclones.

Following warm SSTs in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific in 2014 that almost reached El Niño thresholds (defined by NOAA as +0.5°C SST anomaly in the Niño-3.4 region for three consecutive months), El Niño became established in spring (March-May) 2015 and evolved into one of the strongest such events on record (alongside 1972/73, 1982/83, and 1997/98; see section 4b). El Niño-associated air temperature and rainfall patterns were observed across most of the South Pacific in 2015. A number of South Pacific countries experienced agricultural and/or hydrological drought.

Temperatures were generally above normal in Australasia, with Australia having another warm year, especially in the spring (Sidebar 7.3). Precipitation totals for 2015 were generally near-normal for both Australia and New Zealand. The southern annular mode (SAM) was generally positive through much of 2015, becoming strongly positive at the end of

the year (www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/month_aao_index.shtml). The base period used throughout this section is 1981–2010, unless otherwise indicated.

#### 2) NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND MICRONESIA—M. A. Lander and C. P. Guard

This assessment covers the area from the international date line west to 130°E, between the equator and 20°N. It includes the U.S.-affiliated islands of Micronesia, but excludes the western islands of Kiribati and nearby northeastern islands of Indonesia.

##### (i) Temperature

Temperatures across Micronesia in 2015 were mostly above average. The warmth was persistent, with above-average temperatures occurring during most or all of the year. Only Yap Island had a substantial negative departure for any of the time periods summarized in Table 7.5. At islands located in the west of the region (e.g., Palau, Yap, Guam, and Saipan) there was a tendency for daytime maximum temperature anomalies to be greater than those of nighttime minima. In the east (Chuuk to Kosrae and Majuro), the reverse pattern was observed, as also seen in 2014. Average monthly maximum and minimum temperatures across most of Micronesia
have gradually increased for several decades, with a total rise in average temperature on par with the global average increase of +0.74°C in the last century (Guard and Lander 2012).

### (ii) Precipitation

Dryness was observed across the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) during early 2015, with very low rainfall totals reported at Utirik and Wotje in the northern RMI during January and February. However, rainfall throughout the RMI had a dramatic rebound to very wet conditions during March and April, even at the normally driest of the atolls in the north (e.g., Kwajalein, Utirik, and Wotje). Very wet conditions in the Marshall Islands typically occur in late winter and spring during years of El Niño onset. Dryness associated with El Niño typically begins earlier in the western bounds of Micronesia (e.g., Palau) and spreads eastward later in the year to the RMI. Meanwhile, locations in the far west of Micronesia experienced an early onset of dry conditions that became extreme late in the year.

Annual totals during 2015 were mostly higher than average, with early wetness outweighing dryness later

in the year. The 2015 fourth quarter rainfall totals at Yap Island and at Palau were the lowest and second lowest in their ~65-year post-World War II historical record, respectively. By late December 2015, persistent dry conditions were becoming established at most of the islands of Micronesia. The 6-month and annual rainfall values for selected locations across Micronesia are summarized in Table 7.5.

### (iii) Notable events

Micronesia was the overwhelming focus of the 2015 western North Pacific typhoon track distribution, with Guam at the primary nexus, by virtue of the passage of 12 named tropical cyclones within 550 km (see section 4e8 for more detail).

After nearly a decade of high values, sea level across Micronesia began to fall in 2014 and continued to fall dramatically in 2015 (Fig. 7.51). The maximum drop in monthly mean sea level (since 2013) at both Guam and at Kwajalein was approximately 40 cm (the drop in 12-month means was around 25 cm). A sharp drop in mean sea level typically occurs during El Niño, with the lowest sea level occurring in December of the year of the El Niño peak.

<table><caption>TABLE 7.5. Temperature and rainfall anomalies for selected Micronesia locations during 2015 (base period: 1981–2010). Latitudes and longitudes are approximate. “Kapinga” stands for Kapingamarangi Atoll in Pohnpei State, Federated States of Micronesia.</caption><thead><tr><th rowspan="2">Location</th><th colspan="2">Max/Min Temp Anomaly</th><th colspan="6">Precipitation</th></tr><tr><th>Jan-Jun °C</th><th>Jul-Dec °C</th><th>Jan-Jun mm</th><th>Jan-Jun % of avg.</th><th>Jul-Dec mm</th><th>Jul-Dec %</th><th>Year mm</th><th>Year %</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Saipan<br>15°N,146°E</td><td>+1.92<br>+1.04</td><td>+1.83<br>+1.46</td><td>570.0</td><td>126.9</td><td><strong>939.3</strong></td><td>71.0</td><td><strong>1509.3</strong></td><td>85.2</td></tr><tr><td>Guam<br>13°N,145°E</td><td>+0.40<br>-0.06</td><td>+0.58<br>+0.37</td><td>881.6</td><td>127.5</td><td><strong>2058.4</strong></td><td>115.1</td><td><strong>2940.1</strong></td><td>118.5</td></tr><tr><td>Yap<br>9°N,138°E</td><td>-1.44<br>-0.29</td><td>-0.30<br>+0.25</td><td>1319.5</td><td>112.8</td><td><strong>1818.9</strong></td><td>95.6</td><td><strong>3138.4</strong></td><td>102.2</td></tr><tr><td>Palau<br>7°N,134°E</td><td>+0.96<br>+0.03</td><td>+1.00<br>+0.31</td><td>1185.2</td><td>69.0</td><td><strong>1265.9</strong></td><td>62.3</td><td><strong>2451.1</strong></td><td>65.4</td></tr><tr><td>Chuuk<br>7°N,152°E</td><td>+0.31<br>+0.48</td><td>+0.28<br>+0.97</td><td>2147.8</td><td>135.6</td><td><strong>1823.0</strong></td><td>99.4</td><td><strong>3970.8</strong></td><td>116.2</td></tr><tr><td>Pohnpei<br>7°N,158°E</td><td>+0.18<br>+0.10</td><td>-0.10<br>+0.78</td><td>3039.4</td><td>134.1</td><td><strong>2470.9</strong></td><td>105.8</td><td><strong>5510.3</strong></td><td>119.7</td></tr><tr><td>Kapinga<br>1°N,155°E</td><td>N/A</td><td>N/A</td><td>2411.7</td><td>137.7</td><td><strong>1486.9</strong></td><td>98.4</td><td><strong>3261.4</strong></td><td>119.5</td></tr><tr><td>Kosrae<br>5°N,163°E</td><td>+0.38<br>+1.29</td><td>-0.21<br>+1.34</td><td>2552.5</td><td>99.4</td><td><strong>2007.6</strong></td><td>85.7</td><td><strong>4560.1</strong></td><td>92.9</td></tr><tr><td>Majuro<br>7°N,171°E</td><td>+0.01<br>+0.91</td><td>-0.03<br>+1.17</td><td>1854.7</td><td>135.5</td><td><strong>1713.5</strong></td><td>91.7</td><td><strong>3568.2</strong></td><td>110.2</td></tr><tr><td>Kwajalein<br>9°N,168°E</td><td>+0.37<br>+0.09</td><td>+0.22<br>+0.32</td><td>1737.1</td><td>216.8</td><td><strong>1593.6</strong></td><td>100.9</td><td><strong>3330.7</strong></td><td>139.9</td></tr></tbody></table>
<figure><img src="image_293.png" /><figcaption>**FIG. 7.51.** Observed sea level rise/fall (12-month moving average) over the period 1945–2015 at Kwajalein (black, left vertical axis) and Guam (gray, right vertical axis).</figcaption></figure>

### 3) SOUTHWEST PACIFIC—E. Chandler and S. McGree

Countries considered in this section include: American Samoa, Cook Islands, Fiji, French Polynesia, Kiribati, New Caledonia, Niue, Papua New Guinea (PNG), Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tokelau, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. Air temperature and rainfall anomalies are relative to the 1981–2010 period.

#### (i) Temperature

Mean air temperatures in 2015 (derived from NCEP-NCAR reanalysis) were strongly influenced by El Niño, which dominated the climate of the South Pacific during the year. Temperatures were near normal or above normal between January and March (Fig. 7.52a) across much of the southwest

Pacific. Positive anomalies peaked at around +1.3°C near the equatorial date line. Below-average temperatures occurred near PNG, with anomalies up to -1.5°C over a small region covering the PNG Islands.

Positive temperature anomalies centered on the equator expanded westward towards the Solomon Islands and strengthened during the second quarter (Fig. 7.52b). The largest positive anomalies over central Kiribati exceeded +1.2°C. Negative anomalies persisted over the PNG Islands, while a large area of negative anomalies covered Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga, and Niue during April–June, associated with cool surrounding ocean. Temperatures were within 0.3°C of average around the Solomon Islands, New Caledonia, Samoa, Tuvalu, and parts of French Polynesia.

The temperature anomaly pattern from April to June persisted into the third quarter with negative anomalies

strengthening in the south (Fig. 7.52c). By the end of September, the characteristic El Niño signal was established: positive anomalies dominated the equatorial region, southwest of which was a band of negative anomalies aligned northwest–southeast. A narrow strip of near-average temperatures was sandwiched between the two major anomaly features.

Below-normal air temperatures near the PNG Islands persisted into the last three months of the year, although the band of negative anomalies stretching southeast from PNG through Fiji to the southern Cook Islands weakened considerably in the last quarter (Fig. 7.52d). In contrast, positive anomalies intensified along the equator and expanded southward to encompass northern French Polynesia.

#### (ii) Precipitation

In addition to ENSO, key climate features in the southwest Pacific are the west Pacific Monsoon (WPM), which lies over the west Pacific warm pool, the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) aligned northwest–southeast in the southwest Pacific, and the subtropical high pressure belt which is part of the Hadley Circulation.

Due mainly to enhanced activity in the WPM and SPCZ, the year began with above-normal rainfall recorded during January–March in many western places and the Cook Islands (Table 7.6). High rainfall in central Vanuatu was associated with Tropical

<figure><img src="image_294.png" /><figcaption>**FIG. 7.52.** 2015 Southwest Pacific surface air temperature anomalies from NCEP-NCAR reanalysis (°C; 1981–2010 base period); for (a) Jan–Mar, (b) Apr–Jun, (c) Jul–Sep, and (d) Oct–Dec.</figcaption></figure>
<figure><img src="image_295.png" /><figcaption>FIG. 7.53. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite over Cyclone Pam on 13 March 2015 UTC. The image shows the cyclone track and a rainfall analysis from TRMM's Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR) instruments. Rainfall in part of the cyclone was measured by TRMM PR at more than 119mmh⁻¹. (Source: trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events /pam_trmm_tmi_pr_13_march_2015_0923_utf.jpg.)</figcaption></figure>

saster in the history of Vanuatu. The cyclone crippled infrastructure, with an estimated 90% of Vanuatu's buildings impacted by the storm. Communications were devastated and there was a shortage of water for several days following the storm. At least 132 000 people were affected by Pam, including 54 000 children. There were at least 15 fatalities.

4) AUSTRALIA—C. Ganter and S. Tobin

The information presented here has been prepared using the homogenized Australian temperature dataset (ACORN-SAT) for area-averaged temperature values and the observational dataset (AWAP) for area-averaged rainfall values and mapped analyses for both temperature and rainfall. See www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/acorn-sat/ and www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps/#tabs=About-maps-and-data for more information.

(i) Temperature

Australia's annual mean temperature for 2015 was 0.83°C above the 1961-90 average, making it the fifth warmest year since national observations commenced in 1910. Eight of Australia's ten warmest years have occurred since 2002, with the most recent three years among the five warmest. In 2015, Western Australia, Queensland, Victoria, South Australia, and New

South Wales all observed one of their ten warmest years on record.

The Australian annual mean maximum temperature (Fig. 7.54) was 0.96°C above average, and annual mean minimum temperature (Fig. 7.55) was 0.69°C above average; both sixth highest on record. Several exceptional warm spells occurred during 2015, with an especially warm October-December (see Notable events and Sidebar 7.3 for more details). April and May were the only months in which national mean temperatures were below average.

Annual maxima were in the highest decile (top 10%) of the historical distribution (since 1900) for the north of the Northern Territory, most of Queensland and Victoria, southeast and western South Australia, and large areas of Western Australia (highest on record for part of southwest Western Australia). Annual anomalies of +1.5°C to +2.0°C were observed in the southwest and southern interior of Western Australia and over a large area of southwestern to central Queensland.

Annual minima were also in the highest 10% of historical observations for most of Western Australia, large parts of Queensland, western South Australia, areas of New South Wales, and far eastern Victoria. Annual minima were near-average for most of the Northern Territory, northeastern Western Australia, other smaller areas in western Tasmania, the northern Cape York Peninsula and near Rockhampton in Queensland, and pockets of the southern half of

<figure><img src="image_296.png" /><figcaption>FIG. 7.54. Maximum temperature anomalies (°C) for Australia, averaged over 2015, relative to a 1961–90 base period. (Source: Australia Bureau of Meteorology.)</figcaption></figure>
<figure><img src="image_297.png" /><figcaption>FIG. 7.55. Minimum temperature anomalies (°C) for Australia, averaged over 2015, relative to a 1961–90 base period. (Source: Australia Bureau of Meteorology.)</figcaption></figure>

South Australia. They were cooler than average for some areas of the Northern Territory and northern Western Australia. Large areas of Western Australia and the western half of Queensland observed anomalies in excess of +1.0°C, rising to more than +2.0°C in the southeastern interior of Western Australia. Cool anomalies within 1°C of average were observed over the northern Kimberley and large parts of the Northern Territory.

### (ii) Precipitation

Rainfall averaged across Australia for 2015 was 445.8 mm, or 96% of the 1961–90 average, the 59th driest year since records commenced in 1900 and close to the median. The near-average national total masks some regional differences. Notable areas of below-average rainfall were recorded in the southwest of Western Australia, large areas of southwest to central Queensland, and large areas of the southeast, extending from Tasmania through Victoria and into South Australia. Above-average precipitation was recorded in the Pilbara and Gascoyne regions of Western Australia, and across most of the Northern Territory extending into northern South Australia. Scattered parts of the eastern seaboard, extending from Victoria to southern Queensland, also had above-average precipitation for the year (Fig. 7.56).

State-wise, only Western Australia and the Northern Territory had above-average precipitation for the year, but within 20% of their annual total. All other

states had below-average rainfall, with Victoria 14th driest and Tasmania 8th driest; both experiencing their driest year since the 2006 El Niño year. For Victoria, 16 of the last 19 years (1997–2015) have brought below-average rainfall with similar, though not quite as persistent, runs in other parts of southern Australia (e.g., southeastern Australia, 13 of the last 19 years).

Large parts of eastern Australia commenced the year with continuing long-term rainfall deficiencies (on the two- to three-year scale). These deficiencies persisted across much of inland Queensland in 2015, while drought increased through Victoria and south-east South Australia, and also emerged in Tasmania and southwest Western Australia. The deficiencies echo long-term declines in cool-season rainfall across southern Australia and poor wet-season rainfall in Queensland over three successive years.

After a wet January, much of northern and central Australia was very dry from February onwards, marking a dry end to the northern Australian wet season (October–April).

The combination of a strong El Niño and a record warm Indian Ocean (see section 4b) is an unusual set of climate drivers, and for Australia the presence of a very warm Indian Ocean appears to have limited the broad-scale rainfall anomalies in the cooler part of the year in inland southern and eastern Australia. However, southwest Western Australia recorded its second driest May–July while Victoria and southern South Australia were also dry, but to a lesser extent.

<figure><img src="image_298.png" /><figcaption>FIG. 7.56. Rainfall deciles for Australia for 2015, based on the 1900–2015 distribution. (Source: Australia Bureau of Meteorology.)</figcaption></figure>
A late-developing positive Indian Ocean dipole was associated with a very dry September–October, which had significant impacts on agricultural production in southern areas. December closed the year with heavy rainfall over large parts of the north.

### (iii) Notable events

An exceptional heat wave affected large parts of northern and central Australia during March, with prolonged heat peaking on the 19th and 20th. The other most notable heat waves occurred during the last three months of the year—record early-season heat across southern Australia in early October, contributing to Australia's warmest October on record and extreme heat in much of southeastern Australia in the third week of December (see Sidebar 7.3 for more detail).

Many significant bushfires occurred during the year. The most destructive, in terms of property loss or total area burned, are described below:

* Early January, South Australia's Mount Lofty Ranges, 27 houses destroyed and 20 000 hectares burned;

* Late January and early February, southwest Western Australia, 150 000 hectares burned—the most significant fires for the region in many decades;

* 15–21 November, around Esperance in Western Australia, 145 000 hectares burned;

* 25–27 November, South Australia's Mid North, at least 87 houses at Pinery (north of Adelaide) severely damaged or destroyed and 90 000 hectares burned;

* 25 December, near Lorne on Victoria's southwest coast, 116 homes and holiday houses destroyed at Wye River and Separation Creek.

Two east coast lows brought significant damage. The first caused severe weather and flooding in coastal New South Wales between 20 and 23 April, with 12 regions declared natural disaster areas and several deaths reported due to flash flooding at Dungog. The second low produced heavy rain and damaging winds over southeast Queensland and parts of New South Wales between 1 and 4 May.

A significant, but far from record-breaking, cold outbreak over southeastern Australia during 11–17 July brought widespread snow along the Great Dividing Range, extending from the hills east of Melbourne into southern Queensland. This was the most significant snow event in Queensland since 1984.

Four tropical cyclones made landfall in Australia during 2015: Lam, Marcia, Nathan, and Olwyn with

a fifth, Quang, weakening below cyclone intensity just prior to landfall. Marcia was the strongest at landfall (Category 5) and the most intense known tropical cyclone so far south on the east coast [maximum 10-minute sustained winds of 110 kt (57 m s⁻¹), crossing near Yeppoon, and causing damage as far south as Bundaberg]. Lam made landfall in the eastern Top End on the same day, 20 February—the first time in recorded history that two severe tropical cyclones made landfall in Australia on the same day (see also section 4e7).

For further detail on these and other significant events please see the Monthly Weather Reviews, Annual Climate Statement, and Annual Climate Report available from www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/.

### 5) NEW ZEALAND—N. Fedaeff

In the following discussion, the base period is 1981–2010 for all variables, unless otherwise noted. The nation wide average temperature is based upon the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) seven-station temperature series that begins in 1909 (www.niwa.co.nz/our-science/climate/information-and-resources/nz-temp-record/seven-station-series-temperature-data). All statistics are based on data available as of 8 January 2016.

#### (i) Temperature

New Zealand had a relatively mild 2015, with annual mean temperatures within 0.5°C of the annual average across much of the country (Fig. 7.57).

<figure><img src="image_299.png" /><figcaption>FIG. 7.57. 2015 annual mean temperature anomalies (°C) relative to 1981–2010 normal. Dots show observing station locations. (Source: NIWA.)</figcaption></figure>
The last three months of 2015 saw a very warm end to the year for Australia. It was the warmest October on record with respect to both maximum and minimum temperatures, with the October mean temperature anomaly of +2.89°C the largest anomaly on record for Australia for any month in 106 years of records. Maximum temperatures for October in Victoria, South Australia, and New South Wales were close to values typical of an average December, with monthly anomalies of more than +5°C for the three states (Fig. SB7.6).

October's most significant daily extremes occurred in the first half of the month. Significantly high daytime temperatures occurred in southwest Western Australia beginning 1 October, spreading eastwards and peaking in extent during 4–6 October in the southeast; each day, some part of southern Australia had daily anomalies in excess of +12°C. Another bout of extreme heat occurred over southern Western Australia from 8 to 13 October. Later in the month, there were several other periods which had temperatures well above average, but no individual event in the latter part of October surpassed the extremes of the first 10 days (www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs52.pdf).

November mean temperatures were the third warmest on record and, overall, spring 2015 was second warmest on record. The most recent three springs were the three warmest, with 2014 remaining the warmest on record.

The last notable warm period for the year occurred in December. Following a consistently warm first half of December for the southeast interior of Australia, a burst of more extreme warmth occurred in mid-December over South Australia. Adelaide reached 40°C each day during 16–19 December—the first time this has occurred in Adelaide in December (previous earliest run of four or more days of at least 40°C was 3–6 January in 1906). Heat peaked for this event on 19 December in South Australia and western Victoria ahead of a front, with the cool change passing through southeast Australia on 20 December. Individual daytime and nighttime December records were set on the 19th and 20th across South Australia, Victoria, New South Wales, and Tasmania (Fig. SB7.7). Mildura measured a minimum of 31.9°C on 20 December. This was a new record high minimum temperature for a Victorian site for any month, surpassing 30.9°C also at Mildura on 24 January 2001. A number of other locations in northern Victoria experienced their hottest night on record for any month (www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs53.pdf).

Overall, October–December was the warmest such period on record, with a mean temperature anomaly of +1.93°C. It also tied with July–September 2013 for highest positive anomaly for any three month period.

<figure><img src="image_300.png" /><figcaption>FIG. SB7.6. Maximum temperature anomalies for Oct 2015 for Australia (1961–90 base period). (Source: Australia Bureau of Meteorology.)</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_301.png" /><figcaption>FIG. SB7.7. Daily minimum temperature percentiles for 20 Dec 2015 (1961–90 base period). (Source: Australia Bureau of Meteorology.)</figcaption></figure>
The nation wide average temperature for 2015 was 12.7°C (0.1°C above average). According to NIWA's seven-station temperature series, 2015 was the 27th warmest year for New Zealand in the 107-year period of record. Above-average temperature anomalies were observed throughout many regions of the country in January and March, while below-average temperature anomalies were prominent in September.

### (ii) Precipitation

Annual rainfall totals for 2015 were below normal (50%-79% of the annual normal) in the north and east of the country: Northland, Tasman, Nelson, and Canterbury as well as parts of eastern Waikato, Bay of Plenty, Gisborne, and Wellington—a pattern typically observed during El Niño. Rainfall was within 20% of the annual normal for the remainder of New Zealand (Fig. 7.58). It was the driest year on record for Kaitaia and Kerikeri (both located in Northland), which recorded 75% and 63% of their normal annual rainfall, respectively. There were no high total rainfall records or near-records set in 2015. January was a particularly dry month for New Zealand with rainfall totals well below normal (less than 50% of the January normal) or below normal (50%-79% of the January normal) for most parts of the country. Parts of Northland, Auckland, Taranaki, Manawatu-Whanganui, Kapiti Coast, Wellington, Marlborough, north Canterbury, and Central Otago each received less than 10% of their respective January normal rainfall. Conversely, rainfall during April and June was well above normal (greater than 149% of normal) in Taranaki and large parts of Manawatu-Whanganui.

Of all of the regularly reporting gauges, the wettest location in 2015 was Cropp River, in the Hokitika River Catchment (West Coast, South Island, 975 m a.s.l.) with an annual rainfall total of 11 632 mm. The driest of the regularly reporting rainfall sites in 2015 was Clyde (Central Otago), which recorded 267 mm of rainfall for the year. North Egmont (Taranaki) experienced the highest 1-day rainfall total in 2015 of 466 mm on 19 June.

### (iii) Notable events

See Fig. 7.59 for a schematic of notable events. On 16 and 17 March, ex-Tropical Cyclone Pam passed east of New Zealand and was associated with strong winds and heavy rain in northern and eastern parts of the North Island. About 2200 Auckland and Northland properties lost power as strong winds brought down trees onto power lines. Over 100 people in the East Cape area were evacuated from their homes as a precaution, particularly in low lying coastal townships as high seas were expected to cause flooding and damage.

<figure><img src="image_302.png" /><figcaption>FIG. 7.58. 2015 annual total rainfall (%) relative to 1981–2010 normal. Distribution of observing station locations is as in Fig. 7.57. (Source: NIWA.)</figcaption></figure>

On 3 June, Dunedin (Otago) was inundated by heavy and prolonged rainfall, which resulted in significant flooding, loss of electricity, evacuations, and road closures throughout the city and nearby areas. Dunedin (Musselburgh) received 113 mm of rainfall in the 24 hours to 9 a.m. on 4 June—its second-highest 1-day rainfall total on record for all months (records began in 1918).

Another significant flooding event occurred during 20-21 June in Whanganui. Heavy and prolonged rainfall caused evacuation of more than 100 households and the Whanganui River breached its banks, spilling floodwaters into Whanganui's central business district. This event was the worst flood on record for the area and led to the declaration of a state of emergency.

From 23 to 26 June, record-low temperatures were observed in many regions of the country. A high pressure system over and west of New Zealand combined clear skies with a southerly flow, resulting in very cold temperatures for many parts of the country. In particular, sites in the Mackenzie Country and Central Otago dropped to well below 0°C. The lowest recorded air temperature for 2015 (excluding high elevation alpine sites) was -21.0°C, observed at Tara Hills (Mackenzie Country) on 24 June. This was the fourth coldest temperature ever recorded in New Zealand.
<figure><img src="image_303.png" /><figcaption>FIG. 7.59. Notable weather events and climate extremes for New Zealand in 2015. (Source: NIWA.)</figcaption></figure>
APPENDIX I: RELEVANT DATASETS AND SOURCES

<table><thead><tr><th>General variable or phenomenon</th><th>Specific dataset or variable</th><th>Source</th><th>Section</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td rowspan="2">Aerosols</td><td>Aerosol products</td><td>http://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/macc-reanalysis</td><td>SB2.2</td></tr><tr><td>CAMS Reanalysis</td><td>http://macc.copernicus-atmosphere.eu/catalogue/</td><td>2g3, SB2.2</td></tr><tr><td>Air-sea fluxes</td><td>Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute OAFlux project</td><td>http://oaflux.whoi.edu</td><td>3e</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="3">Albedo</td><td>MODIS</td><td>http://ladsweb.nascom.nasa.gov</td><td>2h1, 5e</td></tr><tr><td>GFAS</td><td>http://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/documentation-fire-emissions</td><td>2h3, SB2.2</td></tr><tr><td>GFEDv4</td><td>https://daac.ornl.gov/VEGETATION/guides/fire-emissions_v4.html</td><td>2h3</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="8">Clouds, cloudiness</td><td>CALIPSO</td><td>http://eosweb.larc.nasa.gov/PRODOCS/calipso/table_calipso.html</td><td>2d5</td></tr><tr><td>CLARA-A2</td><td>https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/clara-a1-cloud-properties-surface-albedo-and-surface-radiation-products-based-avhrr</td><td>2d5</td></tr><tr><td>HIRS</td><td>www.ssec.wisc.edu/~donw/PAGE/CLIMATE.HTM</td><td>2d5</td></tr><tr><td>MISR</td><td>http://eosweb.larc.nasa.gov/PRODOCS/mISR/level3/overview.html</td><td>2d5</td></tr><tr><td>MODIS C6</td><td>http://ladsweb.nascom.nasa.gov</td><td>2d5</td></tr><tr><td>NCEP CFSR</td><td>http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/cfsr/</td><td>d5</td></tr><tr><td>PATMOS-x</td><td>www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdr/operationalcdrs.html</td><td>2d5</td></tr><tr><td>SatCORPS</td><td>No public archive</td><td>2d5</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="3">Evaporation, evapotranspiration, sublimation</td><td>ERA-Interim</td><td>www.ecmwf.int/en/research/climate-reanalysis/era-interim</td><td>SB2.1</td></tr><tr><td>GLEAM</td><td>www.gleam.eu/</td><td>SB2.1</td></tr><tr><td>Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute OAFlux project</td><td>http://oaflux.whoi.edu</td><td>3e2</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="3">FAPAR</td><td>FAPAR</td><td>http://fapar.jrc.ec.europa.eu</td><td>2h2</td></tr><tr><td>MERIS</td><td>https://earth.esa.int/web/guest/missions/esa-operational-eo-missions/envisat/instruments/meris</td><td>2h2</td></tr><tr><td>MODIS-TIP</td><td>http://modis.gsfc.nasa.gov/about/</td><td>2h2</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="3">Geopotential height</td><td>ERA-Interim</td><td>www.ecmwf.int/en/research/climate-reanalysis/era-interim</td><td>6b</td></tr><tr><td>JRA-55</td><td>http://jra.kishou.go.jp/JRA-55/index_en.html</td><td>7g</td></tr><tr><td>NCEP-NCAR reanalysis-1 pressure</td><td>www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.pressure.html</td><td>5b, 7f</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="3">Glacier mass or volume</td><td>Glacier mass balance</td><td>http://dx.doi.org/10.5904/wgms-fog-2015-11</td><td>5f</td></tr><tr><td>Randolph Glacier Inventory v3.2</td><td>www.glims.org/RGI/</td><td>2c3</td></tr><tr><td>World Glacier Monitoring Service</td><td>www.wgms.ch/mbb/sum12.html</td><td>2c3, 5f</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table><thead><tr><th>General variable or phenomenon</th><th>Specific dataset or variable</th><th>Source</th><th>Section</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td rowspan="10">Humidity, (near) surface</td><td>Dai</td><td>By email to adai@ucar.edu</td><td>2d1</td></tr><tr><td>ERA-Interim</td><td>www.ecmwf.int/research/era</td><td>2d1</td></tr><tr><td>HadCRUH</td><td>www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcruh</td><td>2d1</td></tr><tr><td>HadISDH</td><td>www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisdh</td><td>2d1</td></tr><tr><td>HOAPS</td><td>wui.cmsaf.eu/safira/action/viewDoiDetails?acronym=HOAPS_V001</td><td>2d1</td></tr><tr><td>JRA-55</td><td>http://jra.kishou.go.jp/JRA-55/index_en.html</td><td>2d1</td></tr><tr><td>MERRA-2</td><td>http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/reanalysis/MERRA-2/</td><td>2d1</td></tr><tr><td>NOCS 2.0</td><td>www.noc.soton.ac.uk/noc_flux/noc2.php</td><td>2d1</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="2">Humidity, upper atmosphere</td><td>HIRS</td><td>www.ssec.wisc.edu/~donw/PAGE/CLIMATE.HTM</td><td>2d3</td></tr><tr><td>UTH</td><td>By email to Viju.John@eumetsat.int</td><td>2d3</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="3">Ice sheet characteristics</td><td>DMSP-SSMIS</td><td>http://nsidc.org/data/docs/daac/nsidc0001_ssmi_tbs_gd.html</td><td>5e, 6e</td></tr><tr><td>GRACE</td><td>http://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/datasetlist?ids=Platform&values=GRACE</td><td>5e, 5f</td></tr><tr><td>PROMICE (Greenland)</td><td>www.promice.dk/home.html</td><td>5e</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="2">Lake temperature</td><td>Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (Poland)</td><td>www.imgw.pl</td><td>2b4</td></tr><tr><td>NOAA/GLERL</td><td>www.glerl.noaa.gov</td><td>2b4</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="14">Modes of variability</td><td>AMO</td><td>www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/timeseries/AMO/</td><td>3h, 4e2</td></tr><tr><td>AO</td><td>www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml</td><td>2e1</td></tr><tr><td>EQ-SOI</td><td>www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices</td><td>4b, 6d</td></tr><tr><td>MEI</td><td>www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/</td><td>3f</td></tr><tr><td>MJO, real-time multivariate</td><td>http://monitor.cicsnc.org/mjo/current/rmm/</td><td>4c</td></tr><tr><td>NAO</td><td>ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wd52dg/data/indices/tele_index.nh</td><td>SB3.2, 3h</td></tr><tr><td>NAO (summer)</td><td>Courtesy of Chris K. Folland</td><td>2e1</td></tr><tr><td>NAO (winter)</td><td>https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/hurrell-north-atlantic-oscillation-nao-index-station-based</td><td>2e1</td></tr><tr><td>ONI</td><td>www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml</td><td>4b</td></tr><tr><td>PDO</td><td>http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/</td><td>3b</td></tr><tr><td>PDO</td><td>www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/</td><td>3b</td></tr><tr><td>SAM</td><td>www.antarctica.ac.uk/met/gjma/sam.html</td><td>6b, 6d</td></tr><tr><td>SAM, AAO</td><td>www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/aao.shtml</td><td>2e1</td></tr><tr><td>SOI</td><td>ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon/home/ncc/www/sco/soi/soiplaintext.html</td><td>2e1</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table><thead><tr><th>General variable or phenomenon</th><th>Specific dataset or variable</th><th>Source</th><th>Section</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td rowspan="2">Ocean carbon</td><td>CLIVAR/CO2<br>Repeat Hydrography<br>Global Ocean Ship-Based Hydrographic Investigations Program</td><td>www.go-ship.org</td><td>3j</td></tr><tr><td>pCO<sub>2</sub></td><td>www.socat.info</td><td>3j, 6g</td></tr><tr><td>Ocean circulation</td><td>Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation</td><td>www.noc.soton.ac.uk/rapidmoc</td><td>3h</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="9">Ocean heat content and temperature</td><td>Antarctic Bottom Water</td><td>https://portal.aodn.org.au/</td><td>6g</td></tr><tr><td>CSIRO/ACE CRC/IMAS-UTAS estimate</td><td>www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/thermal_expansion_ocean_heat_timeseries.html</td><td>3c</td></tr><tr><td>MRI/JMA</td><td>www.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/kaiyou/english/ohc/ohc_global_en.html</td><td>3c</td></tr><tr><td>NCEI</td><td>www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT/CONTENT/</td><td>3c</td></tr><tr><td>NCEP ocean reanalysis</td><td>www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/</td><td>4h</td></tr><tr><td>PMEL/JPL/JIMAR</td><td>http://oceans.pmel.noaa.gov</td><td>3c</td></tr><tr><td>Roemmich and Gilson (2009) Argo monthly climatology</td><td>http://sio-argo.ucsd.edu/RG_Climatology.html</td><td>3c, SB3.2</td></tr><tr><td>Met Office EN4.0.2</td><td>www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/en4/download-en4-0-2-109.html</td><td>3c</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="6">Ocean salinity</td><td>Antarctic Bottom Water</td><td>https://portal.aodn.org.au/</td><td>6g</td></tr><tr><td>Argo</td><td>www.argo.ucsd.edu/</td><td>3d</td></tr><tr><td>Blended Analysis for Surface Salinity</td><td>ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/precip/BASS</td><td>3d2</td></tr><tr><td>NCEI global salinity anomalies</td><td>www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CAIMTENT</td><td>3d3</td></tr><tr><td>Roemmich and Gilson (2009) Argo monthly climatology</td><td>http://sio-argo.ucsd.edu/RG_Climatology.html</td><td>SB3.2</td></tr><tr><td>World Ocean Atlas 2009</td><td>www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/WOA09/pr_woa09.html</td><td>3d2, 3d3</td></tr><tr><td>Ocean surface heat flux</td><td>CERES FLASHflux</td><td>https://eosweb.larc.nasa.gov/project/ceres/ebaf surface_table</td><td>3e</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="2">Outgoing longwave radiation</td><td>CERES FLASHflux Project</td><td>http://flashflux.larc.nasa.gov</td><td>3e, 4b2, 4c</td></tr><tr><td>Daily OLR</td><td>https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdr/atmospheric/outgoing-longwave-radiation-daily</td><td>4e3, 4e6</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table><thead><tr><th>General variable or phenomenon</th><th>Specific dataset or variable</th><th>Source</th><th>Section</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td rowspan="15">Ozone, total column and stratospheric</td><td>Bodeker Scientific</td><td>www.bodekerscientific.com/data/total-column-ozone</td><td>5j</td></tr><tr><td>CALIPSO (polar stratospheric clouds)</td><td>http://eosweb.larc.nasa.gov/PRODOCS/calipso/table Calipso.html</td><td>6h</td></tr><tr><td>GOME/SCIAMACHY/ GOME2 (GSG) merged total ozone</td><td>www.iup.uni-bremen.de/gome/wfdoas/</td><td>2g4</td></tr><tr><td>GOME/SCIAMACHY/ GOME2 (GTO) merged total ozone</td><td>http://atmos.eoc.dlr.de/gome/gto-ecv.html www.esa-ozone-cci.org</td><td>2g4</td></tr><tr><td>GOZCARDS ozone profiles</td><td>https://gozcards.jpl.nasa.gov http://mirador.gsfc.nasa.gov</td><td>2g4</td></tr><tr><td>KNMI OMI</td><td>http://ozoneaq.gsfc.nasa.gov</td><td>6h</td></tr><tr><td>Multisensor reanalysis of total ozone</td><td>www.temis.nl</td><td>2g4</td></tr><tr><td>NASA Aura MLS</td><td>http://mls.jpl.nasa.gov/index-eos-mls.php</td><td>5j, 6h</td></tr><tr><td>NASA BUV/SBUV v8.6 (MOD v8.6) merged ozone</td><td>http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/merged</td><td>2g4</td></tr><tr><td>NOAA BUV/SBUV v8.6 (MOD v8.6) merged ozone</td><td>ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/SBUV_CDR</td><td>2g4</td></tr><tr><td>Ozonesonde</td><td>www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/spo_oz</td><td>6h</td></tr><tr><td>SAGE II/OSIRIS</td><td>Dataset linked to Bourassa et al. (2014)</td><td>2g4</td></tr><tr><td>WOUDC ground-based ozone</td><td>ftp://ftp.tor.ec.gc.ca/pub/woudc/Project-Campaigns/ZonalMeans</td><td>2g4</td></tr><tr><td>Ozone, tropospheric</td><td>Aura OMI/MLS</td><td>http://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/cloud slice/new data.html</td><td>2g6, SB2.2</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="6">Permafrost</td><td>Active layer thickness</td><td>http://nsidc.org/data/docs/fgdc/ggd313_calm/</td><td>5i</td></tr><tr><td>GTN-P</td><td>http://gtnpdatabase.org</td><td>2cl</td></tr><tr><td>Permafrost temperature</td><td>http://permafrost.gi.alaska.edu/sites_map</td><td>5i</td></tr><tr><td>Permafrost temperature at French sites</td><td>http://edytem.univ-savoie.fr/</td><td>2cl</td></tr><tr><td>Permafrost temperature at Norwegian sites</td><td>www.tspnorway.com, www.met.no</td><td>2cl</td></tr><tr><td>Permafrost temperature at Swiss sites</td><td>www.permos.ch</td><td>2cl</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="3">Phytoplankton, ocean color</td><td>MODIS-Aqua Reprocessing R2014.0</td><td>http://oceancolor.gsfc.nasa.gov/cms/reprocessing/</td><td>3i</td></tr><tr><td>SeaWiFS R2014.0</td><td>http://oceancolor.gsfc.nasa.gov/cms/reprocessing/</td><td>3i</td></tr><tr><td>VIIRS R2014.0</td><td>http://oceancolor.gsfc.nasa.gov/cms/reprocessing/</td><td>3i</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table><thead><tr><th>General variable or phenomenon</th><th>Specific dataset or variable</th><th>Source</th><th>Section</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td rowspan="6">Precipitation</td><td>CMORPH</td><td>www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/janowiak/cmorph_description.html</td><td>4b3, 4d</td></tr><tr><td>GHCN</td><td>www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/ghcn-gridded-products.php</td><td>2d4</td></tr><tr><td>GPCC</td><td>www.gpcc.dwd.de</td><td>2d4, 7f</td></tr><tr><td>GPCPv23</td><td>http://precip.gsfc.nasa.gov</td><td>2d4, 3e, 4h</td></tr><tr><td>NCEP-NCAR reanalysis</td><td>www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html</td><td>7e</td></tr><tr><td>TRMM MI/PR</td><td>http://pmm.nasa.gov/TRMM/products-and-applications</td><td>7h</td></tr><tr><td>Precipitation (net)</td><td>JRA-55</td><td>http://jra.kishou.go.jp/JRA-55/index_en.html</td><td>6d</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="5">Pressure, sea level or near-surface</td><td>Antarctic Meteorological Research Center AWS</td><td>http://amrc.ssec.wisc.edu/data</td><td>6c</td></tr><tr><td>ERA-Interim</td><td>www.ecmwf.int/en/research/climate-reanalysis/era-interim</td><td>6b, SB6.1</td></tr><tr><td>HadSLP2r</td><td>www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs</td><td>2e1</td></tr><tr><td>JRA-55</td><td>http://jra.kishou.go.jp/JRA-55/index_en.html</td><td>6d</td></tr><tr><td>NCEP-NCAR reanalysis</td><td>www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html</td><td>7f</td></tr><tr><td>River discharge</td><td>ELSE</td><td>No public archive</td><td>2d6</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="2">Sea ice concentration</td><td>Near-Real-Time DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS Daily Polar Gridded</td><td>http://nsidc.org/data/nsidc-0081.html</td><td>6f</td></tr><tr><td>Nimbus-7 SMMR and DMSP SSM/I (Bootstrap)</td><td>http://nsidc.org/data/docs/daac/nsidc0079_bootstrap_seaice.gd.html</td><td>6f</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="5">Sea ice duration</td><td>ESA CryoSat-2</td><td>https://earth.esa.int/web/guest/missions/esa-operational-eo-missions/cryosat</td><td>5c</td></tr><tr><td>NASA Operation IceBridge</td><td>https://espo.nasa.gov/oib/content/OIB_1</td><td>5c</td></tr><tr><td>Near-Real-Time DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS Daily Polar Gridded</td><td>http://nsidc.org/data/nsidc-0081.html</td><td>6f</td></tr><tr><td>Nimbus-7 SMMR and DMSP SSM/I (Bootstrap)</td><td>http://nsidc.org/data/nsidc-0079.html</td><td>6f</td></tr><tr><td>Nimbus-7 SMMR and DMSP SSM/I (Bootstrap)</td><td>http://nsidc.org/data/docs/daac/nsidc0079_bootstrap_seaice.gd.html</td><td>5c,6f</td></tr><tr><td>Sea ice extent</td><td>Nimbus-7 SMMR and DMSP SSM/I (Bootstrap)</td><td>https://earth.esa.int/web/guest/-/how-to-access-cryosat-data-6842</td><td>5c</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="3">Sea level/sea surface height</td><td>CryoSat-2</td><td>https://earth.esa.int/web/guest/-/how-to-access-cryosat-data-6842</td><td>5c</td></tr><tr><td>Ssalto/Duacs Multimission Altimeter Products</td><td>www.aviso.altimetry.fr</td><td>3f, 6g</td></tr><tr><td>Tide gauge</td><td>http://uhslc.soest.hawaii.edu/</td><td>3f</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>TOPEX/Jason</td><td>http://sealevel.colorado.edu/</td><td>3f</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table><thead><tr><th>General variable or phenomenon</th><th>Specific dataset or variable</th><th>Source</th><th>Section</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td rowspan="4">Sea surface temperature</td><td>ERSST.v3b and v4</td><td>www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.noaa.ersst.html</td><td>3b, 4e2, 4e4, 4g</td></tr><tr><td>HadISST1</td><td>www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst</td><td>3b</td></tr><tr><td>HadSST3</td><td>www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadsst3</td><td>2b1</td></tr><tr><td>NOAA OISSTv2</td><td>www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.oisst.v2.html</td><td>3b, 4b1, 4d2, 4e3, 4e6, 4h, 5d, 7d</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="2">Snow cover</td><td>NOAA daily Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System</td><td>http://nsidc.org/data/g02156</td><td>5g</td></tr><tr><td>Snow cover extent and duration</td><td>www.snowcover.org</td><td>2c2, 5g</td></tr><tr><td>Snow depth</td><td>Canadian Meteorological Centre daily gridded global snow depth analysis</td><td>http://nsidc.org/data/nsidc-0447</td><td>5g</td></tr><tr><td>Soil moisture</td><td>ESA CCI SM</td><td>www.esa-soilmoisture-cci.org/node?page=3</td><td>2d8</td></tr><tr><td>Solar transmission</td><td>Mauna Loa solar transmission</td><td>www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/grad/mloapt.html</td><td>2f2</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="4">Stratospheric water vapor</td><td>Frost Point Hygrometer Data (Boulder, Hilo, Lauder)</td><td>ftp://aftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/data/ozwv/WaterVapor</td><td>2g5</td></tr><tr><td>Frost Point Hygrometer Data (San Jose)</td><td>http://physics.valpo.edu/ozone/ticosonde.html</td><td>2g5</td></tr><tr><td>MLS data</td><td>http://disc.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/Aura/data-holdings/MLS/index.shtml</td><td>2g5</td></tr><tr><td>NASA Aura MLS</td><td>http://aura.gsfc.nasa.gov/instruments/mls.html</td><td>2g5</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="5">Surface current</td><td>Brazil-Malvina Region Confluence Region</td><td>www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/altimetry/cvar/mal/BM_anm.php</td><td>3g</td></tr><tr><td>Long-term time series of surface currents: Agulhas Current</td><td>www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/altimetry/cvar/agu/</td><td>3g</td></tr><tr><td>Long-term time series of surface currents: North Brazil Current</td><td>www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/altimetry/cvar/nbc</td><td>3g</td></tr><tr><td>Long-term time series of surface currents: Yucatan Current</td><td>www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/altimetry/cvar/yuc/transport.php</td><td>3g</td></tr><tr><td>OSCAR</td><td>www.oscar.noaa.gov</td><td>3h</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table><thead><tr><th>General variable or phenomenon</th><th>Specific dataset or variable</th><th>Source</th><th>Section</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td rowspan="14">Temperature, (near) surface</td><td>Antarctic Meteorological Research Center AWS</td><td>http://amrc.ssec.wisc.edu/data</td><td>6c</td></tr><tr><td>CRUTEM4</td><td>www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/crutem4<br>www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature</td><td>2b1, 5b, 7f</td></tr><tr><td>ERA-Interim</td><td>www.ecmwf.int/en/research/climate-reanalysis<br>/era-interim</td><td>2b1, 2b5, 6b</td></tr><tr><td>EURO4m E-obs</td><td>www.ecad.eu/download/ensembles<br>/ensembles.php</td><td>7f</td></tr><tr><td>GHCNDEX</td><td>www.climdex.org/datasets.html</td><td>2b5</td></tr><tr><td>HadCRUT4 global temperature</td><td>www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4</td><td>2b1</td></tr><tr><td>JMA global temperature</td><td>http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp<br>/map/download.html</td><td>2b1, 7g</td></tr><tr><td>JRA-55</td><td>http://jra.kishou.go.jp/JRA-55/index_en.html</td><td>2b1</td></tr><tr><td>MERRA-2</td><td>http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/reanalysis/MERRA-2/</td><td>2b1</td></tr><tr><td>NASA/GISS global temperature</td><td>http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp</td><td>2b1</td></tr><tr><td>NCEP-NCAR reanalysis</td><td>www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data<br>.ncep.reanalysis.html</td><td>5b, 5i, 7e, 7h</td></tr><tr><td>NOAA/NCEI global temperature</td><td>www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references<br>/faq/anomalies.php</td><td>2b1</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="14">Temperature, upper atmosphere</td><td>Berkeley Earth surface temperature</td><td>www.berkeleyearth.org</td><td>2b1</td></tr><tr><td>ERA-Interim</td><td>www.ecmwf.int/en/research/climate-reanalysis<br>/era-interim</td><td>2b1, 2b2, 2b3, 6b</td></tr><tr><td>JRA-55</td><td>http://jra.kishou.go.jp/JRA-55/index_en.html</td><td>2b2, 2b3</td></tr><tr><td>MERRA-2</td><td>http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/reanalysis/MERRA-2/</td><td>2b2, 2b3</td></tr><tr><td>NCEP CFSR</td><td>http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/cfsr/</td><td>2b3</td></tr><tr><td>NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2</td><td>www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded<br>/data.ncep.reanalysis2.html</td><td>6h</td></tr><tr><td>NCEP-NCAR reanalysis</td><td>www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded<br>/data.ncep.reanalysis.html</td><td>7f</td></tr><tr><td>NOAA/NESDIS/ STAR</td><td>www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/mscat/</td><td>2b2, 2b3</td></tr><tr><td>RAOBCORE, RICH</td><td>www.univie.ac.at/theoret-met/research<br>/raobcore</td><td>2b2, 2b3</td></tr><tr><td>RATPAC</td><td>www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/ratpac</td><td>2b2, 2b3</td></tr><tr><td>RSS</td><td>www.remss.com</td><td>2b2, 2b3</td></tr><tr><td>UAH MSU</td><td>http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/msu</td><td>2b2, 2b3</td></tr><tr><td>University of New South Wales</td><td>web.science.unsw.edu.au/~stevensherwood<br>/radproj/index.html</td><td>2b2</td></tr><tr><td>University of Washington</td><td>www.atmos.uw.edu/~pochedls/nobackup<br>/share/</td><td>2b2, 2b3</td></tr><tr><td>Terrestrial groundwater storage</td><td>GRACE</td><td>http://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/star/index.php</td><td>2d7</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="2">TOA earth radiation budget</td><td>CERES EBAF Ed2.8</td><td>http://ceres.larc.nasa.gov/products<br>.php?product=EBAF-TOA</td><td>2f1</td></tr><tr><td>CERES FLASHFlux</td><td>https://eosweb.larc.nasa.gov/project/ceres/ebaf<br>_toa_table</td><td>2f1</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table><thead><tr><th>General variable or phenomenon</th><th>Specific dataset or variable</th><th>Source</th><th>Section</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td rowspan="7">Total column water vapor</td><td>COSMIC GPS-RO</td><td>www.cosmic.ucar.edu/ro.html</td><td>2d2</td></tr><tr><td>ERA-Interim</td><td>www.ecmwf.int/en/research/climate-reanalysis/era-interim</td><td>2d2</td></tr><tr><td>GNSS ground-based total column water vapor</td><td>http://rda.ucar.edu/datasets/ds721.1/</td><td>2d2</td></tr><tr><td>JRA-55</td><td>http://jra.kishou.go.jp/JRA-55/index_en.html</td><td>2d2</td></tr><tr><td>MERRA-2</td><td>http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/reanalysis/MERRA-2/</td><td>2d2</td></tr><tr><td>RSS SSM/I AMSR-E ocean total column water vapor</td><td>www.rems.com</td><td>2d2</td></tr><tr><td>Total solar irradiance</td><td>SORCE/TIM</td><td>http://science.nasa.gov/missions/sorce/</td><td>2f</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="14">Trace gases</td><td>AGGI</td><td>www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi</td><td>2gl</td></tr><tr><td>Carbon dioxide</td><td>www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/iadv</td><td>2gl</td></tr><tr><td>Carbon monoxide</td><td>https://www2.acom.ucar.edu/mopitt</td><td>2g7, SB2.2</td></tr><tr><td>Chlorine monoxide, Aura MLS</td><td>http://mls.jpl.nasa.gov/products/clo_product.php</td><td>6h</td></tr><tr><td>Hydrogen chloride, Aura MLS</td><td>http://disc.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/datacollection/ML2HCL_V004.html</td><td>6h</td></tr><tr><td>Methane</td><td>www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/iadv</td><td>2gl</td></tr><tr><td>Nitrous oxide</td><td>www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/hats/combined/N2O.html</td><td>2gl</td></tr><tr><td>ODGI</td><td>www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/odgi</td><td>2g2</td></tr><tr><td>Perfluorocarbons</td><td>http://agage.eas.gatech.edu</td><td>2gl, 2g2</td></tr><tr><td>Sulfur hexafluoride</td><td>www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/hats/combined/SF6.html</td><td>2gl</td></tr><tr><td>IBTrACS</td><td>www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ibtracs</td><td>4e</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="3">Tropical cyclone data</td><td>JTWC best-track data (2011 preliminary)</td><td>www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/best tracks</td><td>4e4, 4e5, 4e6</td></tr><tr><td>RSMC-Tokyo, JMA best-track data</td><td>www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/besttrack.html</td><td>4e4</td></tr><tr><td>SPEArTC</td><td>http://apdrc.soest.hawaii.edu/projects/speartc</td><td>4e7, 4e8</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="7">Wind, (near) surface</td><td>Australian (McVicar)</td><td>http://doi.org/10.4225/08/56A85491DDED2</td><td>2e2</td></tr><tr><td>ERA-Interim</td><td>www.ecmwf.int/en/research/climate-reanalysis/era-interim</td><td>2e2, SB6.1</td></tr><tr><td>HadISD</td><td>www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisd/</td><td>2e2</td></tr><tr><td>JRA-55</td><td>http://jra.kishou.go.jp/JRA-55/index_en.html</td><td>2e2, 4h</td></tr><tr><td>MERRA-2</td><td>http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/reanalysis/MERRA-2/</td><td>2e2</td></tr><tr><td>RapidScat</td><td>winds.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/RapidScat/</td><td>SB4.2</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table><thead><tr><th>General variable or phenomenon</th><th>Specific dataset or variable</th><th>Source</th><th>Section</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td rowspan="6">Wind, upper atmosphere</td><td>Climate Forecast System</td><td>http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/</td><td>4b1</td></tr><tr><td>ERA-Interim</td><td>www.ecmwf.int/en/research/climate-reanalysis/era-interim</td><td>2e3, 6b</td></tr><tr><td>GRASP</td><td>http://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.823617</td><td>2e3</td></tr><tr><td>JRA-55</td><td>http://jra.kishou.go.jp/JRA-55/index_en.html</td><td>2e3</td></tr><tr><td>MERRA</td><td>http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/research/merra/</td><td>2e3</td></tr><tr><td>NCEP-NCAR reanalysis</td><td>www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html</td><td>4e3, 4e4, 4e6, 4g</td></tr></tbody></table>
# ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

We wish to thank the AMS Journals' editorial staff, in particular Melissa Fernau, for facilitating the document. We thank the NCEI visual communications team for laying the document out and executing the countless number of technical edits needed. We also wish to express our sincere and deep gratitude to Dr. Rick Rosen, who served as the AMS special editor for this report. Dr. Rosen's handling of the reviews was at the same time rigorous and responsive, and greatly improved the document.

## Chapter 2

* We thank David Parker for his excellent internal review.

* Kate Willett, Robert Dunn, Rob Allan, David Parker, Chris Folland, and Colin Morice were supported by the Joint U.K. DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101).

* Markus Donat received funding from Australian Research Council Grant DE150100456.

* Iestyn Woolway and Chris Merchant received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Programme for Research and Innovation under Grant Agreement 640171.

* Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick was funded by Australian Research Council Grant DE140100952.

* The datasets used for sections 2d2 and 2d5 were provided from the JRA-55 project carried out by the Japan Meteorological Agency.

* We thank Paul Berrisford (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), Mike Bosilovich (NASA), and Shinya Kobayashi (Japan Meteorological Agency) for timely provision of reanalysis data.

## Chapter 3

* Sandra Bigley (NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory) provided outstanding editorial assistance.

* Scott Cross, Toby Garfield, Jon Hare, Boyin Huang, Liqing Jiang, Kelly Kearney, and Dan Seidov imparted useful comments on an early draft of the chapter.

* Comments from three anonymous reviewers helped to improve the chapter.

* M. Baringer, G. Goni, R. Lumpkin, C. Meinen, and C. Schmid were supported by NOAA/AOML and the Climate Observation Division of NOAA/CPO.

* S. Dong, S. Garzoli, and D. Volkov were supported by NOAA/AOML, NOAA/CPO, and the Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, University of Miami.

* S. Billheimer and L. D. Tally acknowledge funding from US CLIVAR CLIMODE, NSF OCE-0960928.

* M. Ishii's work was supported by ERTDF [2-1506] of the Ministry of Environment, Japan.

* G. C. Johnson and J. M. Lyman were supported by NOAA/PMEL and the Climate Observations Division of the NOAA/CPO.

* R. Killick was supported by the joint U.K. DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101).

* S. W. Wijffels and D. Monselesan were supported by the Australian Climate Change Science Program.

* C. M. Domingues was supported by an Australian Research Council Future Fellowship (FT130101532).

* Computational resources and support from the NASA Advanced Supercomputing Division are gratefully acknowledged.

## Chapter 4

* We thank Brenden Moses (NOAA/National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida) for his timely inputs to sidebar 4.2.

* We thank Bill Ward (NOAA/NWS/Pacific Region Headquarters) who was involved with the internal review of the chapter.

* We thank Mark Lander (University of Guam) and Charles "Chip" Guard (NWS/Guam Weather Forecast Office) for providing valuable inputs related to section 4e4.

## Chapter 5

* For support in coediting the chapter, Jackie Richter-Menge and Jeremy Mathis thank the NOAA/Arctic Research Office.

* We thank the authors for their contributions and the reviewers for their thoughtful and constructive comments.

* Jim Overland's contribution to section 5b was supported by the NOAA/Arctic Research Project of the Climate Program Office and by the Office of Naval Research, Code 322.
* Kit M. Kovacs and Christian Lydersen acknowledge the support of the Norwegian Polar Institute, while Patrick Lemons acknowledges the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, for the research programs that supported the creation of sidebar 5.1.

* For section 5f, B.Wouters was supported by the Netherlands Polar Program and the Marie Curie International Outgoing Fellowship within the 7th European Community Framework Programme (FP7-PEOPLE-2011-IOF-301260), and M. Sharp is supported by a Discovery Grant from NSERC Canada.

* Max Holmes and the coauthors of section 5h thank the USGS (Yukon), Water Survey of Canada (Mackenzie), and Roshydromet (Severnaya Dvina, Pechora, Ob', Yenisey, Lena, and Kolyma) for the discharge data.

* Vladimir Romanovsky and coauthors of section 5i acknowledge the support of the state of Alaska, the National Science Foundation (Grants PLR-0856864 and PLR-1304271 to the University of Alaska, Fairbanks, as well as PLR-1002119 and PLR-1304555 to the George Washington University), and the Geological Survey of Canada and Natural Resources Canada.

* Support for section 5i was also provided by the Russian Science Foundation (Projects RNF 16-17-00102, 13-05-41509 RGO, 13-05-00811, 13-08-91001, 14-05-00956, 14-17-00037, and 15-55-71004) and by the government of the Russian Federation.

* Germar Bernhard and coauthors of section 5j acknowledge the support of the U.S. National Science Foundation (Grant ARC-1203250), a Research Council of Norway Centres of Excellence award (Project 223268/F50) to the Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, and the Academy of Finland for UV measurements by the FARPOCC and SAARA projects in Finland.

## Chapter 6

* Special thanks to Dr. Marilyn Raphael and Dr. Florence Fetterer for their internal reviews of the chapter.

* The work of Rob Massom, Phil Reid, and Jan Lieser was supported by the Australian Government's Cooperative Research Centre program through the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC, and contributes to AAS Project 4116.

* Ted Scambos was supported under NASA Grant NNX10AR76G and NSF ANT 0944763, the Antarctic Glaciological Data Center.

* Sharon Stammerjohn was supported under NSF PLR 0823101.

## Chapter 7

* We thank Peter Bissolli (Deutsche Wetterdienst) and David Parker (Met Office) for their excellent help with section 7f.

* Samson Hagos and Zhe Feng are supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research as part of the Regional and Global Climate Modeling Program; their institution, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, is operated by Battelle for the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC05-76RLO1830.
ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

<table><tr><td>AAO</td><td>Antarctic Oscillation</td><td>GCOS</td><td>Global Climate Observing System</td></tr><tr><td>ACE</td><td>NOAA's Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index</td><td>GHCN</td><td>Global Historical Climatology Network</td></tr><tr><td>AGGI</td><td>NOAA's Annual Greenhouse Gas Index</td><td>GHG</td><td>greenhouse gas</td></tr><tr><td>ALT</td><td>active layer thickness</td><td>GISS</td><td>NASA's Goddard Institute of Space Studies</td></tr><tr><td>AMO</td><td>Atlantic multidecadal oscillation</td><td>GOME</td><td>Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment</td></tr><tr><td>AMSR-E</td><td>Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System</td><td>GPCC</td><td>Global Precipitation Climatology Centre</td></tr><tr><td>AMSU</td><td>Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit</td><td>GPCP</td><td>Global Precipitation Climatology Project</td></tr><tr><td>AO</td><td>Arctic Oscillation</td><td>GRACE</td><td>Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment</td></tr><tr><td>AOD</td><td>aerosol optical depth</td><td></td><td>Global Terrestrial Network on Permafrost</td></tr><tr><td>ATSR</td><td>Along-Track Scanning Radiometers</td><td>GTN-P</td><td>Met Office Hadley Centre's radiosonde temperature product</td></tr><tr><td>AVHRR</td><td>Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer</td><td>HadAT</td><td>Met Office Hadley Centre/CRU gridded monthly temperatures dataset</td></tr><tr><td>AVISO</td><td>Archiving, Validating, and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic data</td><td>HadCRUT</td><td>Met Office Hadley Centre's sea ice and SST dataset</td></tr><tr><td>CAMS</td><td>Climate Anomaly Monitoring System</td><td>HadISST</td><td>High Resolution Infrared Sounder</td></tr><tr><td>CDR</td><td>climate data record</td><td></td><td>International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship</td></tr><tr><td>CERES</td><td>Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System</td><td>HIRS-W</td><td>ice cover duration</td></tr><tr><td>CPC</td><td>NOAA's Climate Prediction Center</td><td>IBTrACS</td><td>Indian Ocean dipole</td></tr><tr><td>CPHC</td><td>NOAA's Central Pacific Hurricane Center</td><td>ICD</td><td>Indian Ocean dipole</td></tr><tr><td>CRU</td><td>University of East Anglia's Climate Research Unit</td><td>IOD</td><td>International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project</td></tr><tr><td>DU</td><td>Dobson Unit</td><td>ISCCP</td><td>Japanese Meteorological Agency</td></tr><tr><td>E-P</td><td>evaporation minus precipitation</td><td>JMA</td><td>Jet Propulsion Laboratory</td></tr><tr><td>ECMWF</td><td>European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts</td><td>JPL</td><td>Japanese Reanalysis</td></tr><tr><td>ECV</td><td>essential climate variable</td><td>JRA</td><td>U.S. Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center</td></tr><tr><td>EECI</td><td>effective equivalent chlorine</td><td>JTWC</td><td>latent heat flux</td></tr><tr><td>EESC</td><td>effective equivalent stratospheric chlorine</td><td>LHF</td><td>long-lived greenhouse gas</td></tr><tr><td>EOS</td><td>Earth Observatory System</td><td>LLGHG</td><td>Main Development Region</td></tr><tr><td>ERB</td><td>Earth radiation budget</td><td>MDR</td><td>multivariate ENSO index</td></tr><tr><td>ERBE</td><td>Earth Radiation Budget Experiment</td><td>MEI</td><td>Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer</td></tr><tr><td>ERSST</td><td>Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature</td><td>MERIS</td><td>Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer</td></tr><tr><td>ESA</td><td>European Space Agency</td><td>MLS</td><td>Microwave Limb Sounder</td></tr><tr><td>ESRL</td><td>Earth System Research Laboratory</td><td>MOC</td><td>meridional overturning current</td></tr><tr><td>FAPAR</td><td>Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation</td><td>MOCHA</td><td>Meridional Overturning Circulation Heat Transport Array</td></tr><tr><td>FLASHflux</td><td>Fast Longwave and Shortwave Radiative Fluxes</td><td>MODIS</td><td>Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer</td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td>MSLP</td><td>mean sea level pressure</td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td>MSU</td><td>Microwave Sounding Unit</td></tr></table>
<table><tr><td>NAO</td><td>North Atlantic Oscillation</td><td>RICH</td><td>Radiosonde Innovation Composite</td></tr><tr><td>NASA</td><td>National Aeronautics and Space Administration</td><td>RSS</td><td>Homogenization</td></tr><tr><td>NCAR</td><td>National Center for Atmospheric Research</td><td>SAM</td><td>Remote Sensing Systems</td></tr><tr><td>NCDC</td><td>NOAA's National Climatic Data Center</td><td>SCD</td><td>Southern annular mode</td></tr><tr><td>NCEP</td><td>NOAA's National Center for Environmental Prediction</td><td>SCE</td><td>snow covered duration</td></tr><tr><td>NERC</td><td>National Environmental Research Council</td><td>SCIAMACHY</td><td>snow cover extent</td></tr><tr><td>NOAA</td><td>National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration</td><td>SeaWiFS</td><td>Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography</td></tr><tr><td>NSIDC</td><td>National Snow and Ice Data Center</td><td>SSPZ</td><td>Sea-viewing Wide Field of View</td></tr><tr><td>OAFlux</td><td>Objectively Analyzed Air-Sea Fluxes</td><td>SSM/I</td><td>Sensible heat flux</td></tr><tr><td>ODGI</td><td>Ozone-depleting Gas Index</td><td>SSH</td><td>Sea level pressure</td></tr><tr><td>ODS</td><td>ozone-depleting substance</td><td>SSS</td><td>Southern Oscillation index</td></tr><tr><td>OHCA</td><td>ocean heat content anomaly</td><td>SSTA</td><td>South Pacific convergence zone</td></tr><tr><td>OISST</td><td>Optimal Interpolation SST</td><td>SWE</td><td>Special Sensor Microwave Imager</td></tr><tr><td>OLR</td><td>outgoing longwave radiation</td><td>TCHP</td><td>Sea surface height</td></tr><tr><td>OMI</td><td>Ozone Monitoring Instrument</td><td>TCWV</td><td>Sea surface salinity</td></tr><tr><td>ONI</td><td>NOAA's Oceanic Niño index</td><td>TOA</td><td>Sea surface temperature anomaly</td></tr><tr><td>OPI</td><td>OLR precipitation index</td><td>TOMS</td><td>Snow water equivalent</td></tr><tr><td>P-E</td><td>precipitation minus evaporation</td><td>TRMM</td><td>Tropical cyclone heat potential</td></tr><tr><td>PATMOS (-x)</td><td>Pathfinder Atmospheres (Extended Product)</td><td>WBM</td><td>Total column water vapor</td></tr><tr><td>PDO</td><td>Pacific decadal oscillation</td><td>w.e.</td><td>Top of atmosphere</td></tr><tr><td>PSC</td><td>polar stratospheric clouds</td><td>WGMS</td><td>Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer</td></tr><tr><td>PSS</td><td>practical salinity scale</td><td>WMO</td><td>Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission</td></tr><tr><td>QBO</td><td>Quasi-biennial oscillation</td><td>WOA</td><td>Water Balance Model</td></tr><tr><td>QuikSCAT</td><td>Quick Scatterometer</td><td>WOCE</td><td>water equivalent</td></tr><tr><td>RAOBCORE</td><td>Radiosonde Observation Correction</td><td></td><td>World Glacier Monitoring Service</td></tr><tr><td>RATPAC</td><td>Radiosonde Atmospheric Temperature Products for Assessing Climate</td><td></td><td>World Meteorological Organization</td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>World Ocean Atlas</td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>World Ocean Circulation Experiment</td></tr></table>
## REFERENCES

Aagaard, K., and E. C. Carmack, 1989: The role of sea ice and other fresh water in the Arctic circulation. *J. Geophys. Res.*, **94**, 14 485–14 498, doi:10.1029/ JC094iC10p14485.

Ackerman, S. A., R. E. Holz, R. Frey, E. W. Eloranta, B. C. Maddux, and M. McGill, 2008: Cloud Detection with MODIS. Part II: Validation. *J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol.*, **25**, 1073–1086, doi:10.1175/2007JTECHA1053.1.

Adler, R. F., and Coauthors, 2003: The version 2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979–present). *J. Hydrometeor.*, **4**, 1147–1167, doi:10.1175/1525- 7541(2003)004<1147:TVGPCP>2.0.CO;2.

Ahlstrøm, A. P., and Coauthors, 2008: A new programme for monitoring the mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet. *Geol. Surv. Denmark Greenl. Bull.*, **15**, 61–64.

Aiyyer, A., and J. Molinari, 2008: MJO and tropical cyclogenesis in the Gulf of Mexico and eastern Pacific: Case study and idealized numerical modeling. *J. Atmos. Sci.*, **65**, 2691–2704, doi:10.1175/2007JAS2348.1.

Albergel, C., and Coauthors, 2013: Skill and global trend analysis of soil moisture from reanalyses and microwave remote sensing. *J. Hydrometeor.*, **14**, 1259–1277, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-12-0161.1.

Allan, R. J., and R. D. D'Arrigo, 1999: 'Persistent' ENSO sequences: How unusual was the 1990–1995 El Niño? *Holocene*, **9**, 101–118, doi:10.1191/095968399669125102.

—, and T. Ansell, 2006: A new globally complete monthly historical gridded mean sea level pressure dataset (HadSLP2): 1850–2004. *J. Climate*, **19**, 5816–5842, doi:10.1175/JCLI3937.1.

—, G. Beard, A. Close, A. L. Herczeg, P. D. Jones and H. J. Simpson, 1996: Mean sea level pressure indices of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation: Relevance to stream discharge in southeastern Australia. CSIRO Division of Water Resources Rep. 96/1, 23 pp.

—, C. J. C. Reason, J. A. Lindesay, and T. J. Ansell, 2003: 'Protracted' ENSO episodes and their impacts in the Indian Ocean region. *Deep-Sea Res. II*, **50**, 2331–2347, doi:10.1016/S0967-0645(03)00059-6.

Allen, R. J., J. R. Norris, and M. Kovilakam, 2014: Influence of anthropogenic aerosols and the Pacific decadal oscillation on tropical belt width. *Nat. Geosci.*, **7**, 270–274, doi:10.1038/ngeo2091.

Amador, J. A., 1998: A climatic feature of the tropical Americas: The trade wind easterly jet. *Top. Meteor. Oceanogr.*, **5**, 91–102.

—, E. J. Alfaro, O. G. Lizano, and V. O. Magaña, 2006: Atmospheric forcing of the eastern tropical Pacific: A review. *Progr. Oceanogr.*, **69**, 101–142, doi:10.1016/j.poccean.2006.03.007.

—, E. J. Alfaro, H. G. Hidalgo, and B. Calderón, 2011: Central America [in "State of the Climate 2010"). *Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.*, **92** (6), S182–S183.

AMAP, 2015: Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic—Status report. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme. [Available online at https://oaarchive.arctic-council.org/handle/11374/1439.]

Andela, N., and G. R. van der Werf, 2014: Recent trends in African fires driven by cropland expansion and El Niño to La Niña transition. *Nat. Climate Change*, **4**, 791–795, doi:10.1038/nclimate2313.

Anderson, M. C., J. M. Norman, G. R. Diak, W. P. Kustas, and J. R. Mecikalski, 1997: A two-source time-integrated model for estimating surface fluxes using thermal infrared remote sensing. *Remote Sens. Environment*, **60**, 195–216, doi:10.1016/S0034-4257(96)00215-5.

—, and Coauthors, 2011: Mapping daily evaporation at field to continental scales using geostationary and polar orbiting satellite imagery, *Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.*, **15**, 223–239, doi:10.5194/hess-15-223-2011.

Antonov, J. I., and Coauthors, 2010: *Salinity*. Vol. 2, *World Ocean Atlas 2009*, NOAA Atlas NESDIS 69, 184 pp. [Available online at http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/WOA09/pr_woa09.html.]

Aoki, S., 2002: Coherent sea level response to the Antarctic Oscillation. *Geophys. Res. Lett.*, **29**, 1950, doi:10.1029/2002GL015733.

Arguez, A., and S. Applequist, 2015: Understanding the statistical uncertainty of 2014's designation as the warmest year on record [in "State of the Climate in 2014"] *Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.*, **96** (7), S11–S12.

—, T. R. Karl, M. F. Squires, and R. S. Vose, 2013: Uncertainty in annual rankings from NOAA's global temperature time series. *Geophys. Res. Lett.*, **40**, 5965–5969, doi:10.1002/2013GL057999.

Arkin, P. A., 1982: The relationship between interannual variability in the 200 mb tropical wind field and the Southern Oscillation. *Mon. Wea. Rev.*, **110**, 1393–1404.

Armstrong, R. L., K. W. Knowles, M. J. Brodzik, and M. A. Hardman, 1994 (updated annually): DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS pathfinder daily EASE-grid brightness temperatures, version 2. Southern Hemisphere data, National Snow and Ice Data Center, accessed 2016. [Available online at http://nsidc.org/data/docs/daac/nsidc0032_ssmi_ease_tbs.gd.html.]
Aschmann, J., J. P. Burrows, C. Gebhardt, A. Rozanov, R. Hommel, M. Weber, and A. M. Thompson, 2014: On the hiatus in the acceleration of tropical upwelling since the beginning of the 21st century. *Atmos. Chem. Phys.*, **14**, 12803–12814, doi:10.5194/acp-14-12803-2014.

Ashok, K., S. K. Behera, S. A. Rao, H. Weng, and T. Yamagata, 2007: El Niño Modoki and its possible teleconnection. *J. Geophys. Res.*, **112**, C11007, doi:10.1029/2006JC003798.

Azorin-Molina, C., and Coauthors, 2014: Homogenization and assessment of observed near-surface wind speed trends over Spain and Portugal, 1961–2011. *J. Climate*, **27**, 3692–3712, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00652.1.

—, J. A. Guijarro-Pastor, T. R. McVicar, S. M. Vicente-Serrano, S. Jerez, and F. Espírito-Santo, 2016: Trends of daily peak wind gusts in Spain and Portugal, 1961–2014. *J. Geophys. Res.*, **121**, 1059–1078, doi:10.1002/2015JD024485.

Bakker, D. C. E., and Coauthors, 2014: An update to the Surface Ocean CO₂ Atlas (SOCAT version 2). *Earth Syst. Sci. Data*, **6**, 69–90, doi:10.5194/essd-6-69-2014.

Balks, M., K. Seybold and M. Gugliemin, 2016: Thermal snapshot of McMurdo Dry Valley, continental Antarctica. *Proc. 11th Int. Conf. on Permafrost (ICOP)*, Potsdam, Germany, Alfred Wegener Institute, in press.

Banzon, V. F., and R. W. Reynolds, 2013: Use of WindSat to extend a microwave-based daily optimum interpolation sea surface temperature time series. *J. Climate*, **26**, 2557–2562, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00628.1.

Baringer, M. O., and Coauthors, 2013: Meridional overturning circulation and heat transport observations in the Atlantic [in “State of the Climate in 2012”]. *Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.*, **94** (8), S65–S68.

—, W. E. Johns, W. R. Hobbs, S. Garzoli, S. Dong, and J. Willis, 2015a: Meridional oceanic heat transport in the Atlantic Ocean [in “State of the Climate in 2014”]. *Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.*, **96** (7), S81–S82.

—, and Coauthors, 2015b: Meridional overturning circulation observations in the North Atlantic Ocean [in “State of the Climate in 2014”]. *Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.*, **96** (7), S78–S80.

Barnston, A., 2015: Why are there so many ENSO indexes, instead of just one? [Available online at https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/why-are-there-so-many-enso-indexes-instead-just-one.]

Barrett, J. E., R. A. Virginia, D. H. Wall, P. T. Doran, A. G. Fountain, K. A. Welch, and W. B. Lyons, 2008: Persistent effects of a discrete warming event on a polar desert ecosystem. *Global Change Biol.*, **14**, 2249–2261, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01641.x.

Bastos, A., S. W. Running, C. Gouveia, and R. M. Trigo, 2013: The global NPP dependence on ENSO: La Niña and the extraordinary year of 2011. *J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci.*, **118**, 1247–1255, doi:10.1002/jgrg.20100.

Bauer-Marschallinger, B., W. A. Dorigo, W. Wagner, and A. I. J. M. van Dijk, 2013: How oceanic oscillation drives soil moisture variations over mainland Australia: An analysis of 32 years of satellite observations. *J. Climate*, **26**, 10159–10173, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00149.1.

Baxter, S., S. Weaver, J. Gottschalck, and Y. Xue, 2014: Pentad evolution of wintertime impacts of the Madden–Julian Oscillation over the contiguous United States. *J. Climate*, **27**, 7356–7367, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00105.1.

Beal, L. M., V. Hormann, R. Lumpkin, and G. R. Foltz, 2013: The response of the surface circulation of the Arabian Sea to monsoonal forcing. *J. Phys. Oceanogr.*, **43**, 2008–2022, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-13-033.1.

Becker, A., P. Finger, A. Meyer-Christoffer, B. Rudolf, K. Schamm, U. Schneider, and M. Ziese, 2013: A description of the global land-surface precipitation data products of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre with sample applications including centennial (trend) analysis from 1901–present. *Earth Syst. Sci. Data*, **5**, 71–99, doi:10.5194/essd-5-71-2013.

Behrenfeld, M. J., and Coauthors, 2006: Climate-driven trends in contemporary ocean productivity. *Nature*, **444**, 752–755, doi:10.1038/nature05317.

—, and Coauthors, 2016: Revaluating ocean warming impacts on global phytoplankton. *Nat. Climate Change*, **6**, 323–330, doi:10.1038/nclimate2838.

Behringer, D. W., M. Ji, and A. Leetmaa, 1998: An improved coupled model for ENSO prediction and implications for ocean initialization. Part I: The ocean data assimilation system. *Mon. Wea. Rev.*, **126**, 1013–1021, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<1013:AI CMFE>2.0.CO;2.

Bell, G. D., and M. S. Halpert, 1998: Climate assessment for 1997. *Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.*, **79**, S1–S51, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<1014:CAF>2.0.CO;2.

—, and M. Chelliah, 2006: Leading tropical modes associated with interannual and multi-decadal fluctuations in North Atlantic hurricane activity. *J. Climate*, **19**, 590–612, doi:10.1175/JCLI3659.1.

—, and Coauthors, 2000: The 1999 North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific hurricane season [in “Climate Assessment for 1999”]. *Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.*, **81** (6), S19–S22, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<1328:CAF>2.3.CO;2.
—, and Coauthors, 2011: Tropical cyclones; Atlantic basin [in "State of the Climate in 2010"). *Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.*, **92** (7), S115-S121.

—, and Coauthors, 2012: Tropical cyclones; Atlantic basin [in "State of the Climate in 2011"). *Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.*, **93** (7), S99-S105.

—, and Coauthors, 2014: Tropical cyclones; Atlantic basin [in "State of the Climate in 2013"). *Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.*, **95** (7), S86-S90.

—, and Coauthors, 2015: The 2014 North Atlantic hurricane season: A climate perspective [in "State of the Climate in 2014"). *Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.*, **96** (7), S101-S107.

Benedetti, A., and Coauthors, 2009: Aerosol analysis and forecast in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecast System: 2. Data assimilation. *J. Geophys. Res.*, **114**, D13205, doi:10.1029/2008JD011115.

Beniston, M., 2004: The 2003 heat wave in Europe: A shape of things to come? An analysis based on Swiss climatological data and model simulations. *Geophys. Res. Lett.*, **31**, L02202, doi:10.1029/2003GL018857.

Berg, R., 2016: Hurricane Joaquin (AL112015). National Hurricane Center tropical cyclone report. [Available online at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL112015_Joaquin.pdf.]

Bernhard, G., and Coauthors, 2015: Comparison of OMI UV observations with ground-based measurements at high northern latitudes. *Atmos. Chem. Phys.*, **15**, 7391-7412, doi:10.5194/acp-15-7391-2015.

Berrisford, P., I. Tobin, R. J. H. Dunn, R. Vautard, and T. R. McVicar, 2015: Land surface winds [in "State of the Climate in 2014"). *Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.*, **96** (7), S33-S34.

Berry, D. I., and E. C. Kent, 2009: A new air-sea interaction gridded dataset from ICOADS with uncertainty estimates. *Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.*, **90**, 645-656, doi:10.1175/2008BAMS2639.1.

—, and —, 2011: Air-sea fluxes from ICOADS: The construction of a new gridded dataset with uncertainty estimates. *Int. J. Climatol.*, **31**, 987-1001, doi:10.1002/joc.2059.

Bestelmeyer, B. T., and Coauthors, 2011: Analysis of abrupt transitions in ecological systems. *Ecosphere*, **2**, 1-26, doi:10.1890/ES11-00216.1.

Bhartia, P. K., and C. W. Wellemeyer, 2002: TOMS-V8 total O₃ algorithm. OMI Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document, Vol II, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, 15-31.

Bichet, A., M. Wild, D. Folini, and C. Schär, 2012: Causes for decadal variations of wind speed over land: Sensitivity studies with a global climate model. *Geophys. Res. Lett.*, **39**, L11701, doi:10.1029/2012GL051685.

Billheimer, S., and L. D. Talley, 2013: Near cession of Eighteen Degree Water renewal in the western North Atlantic in the warm winter of 2011-2012. *J. Geophys. Res. Oceans*, **118**, 6838-6853, doi:10.1002/2013JC009024.

Biskaborn, B. K., J.-P. Lanckman, H. Lantuit, K. Elger, D. A. Streletskiy, W. L. Cable, and V. E. Romanovsky, 2015: The new database of the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P). *Earth Syst. Sci. Data*, **7**, 245-259, doi:10.5194/essd-7-245-2015.

Bjerknes, J., 1969: Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific. *Mon. Wea. Rev.*, **97**, 163-172, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1969)097<0163:ATFTEP>2.3.CO;2.

Blake, E., and Coauthors, 2009: *Tropical Cyclones of the Eastern North Pacific Basin, 1949-2006*. Historical Climatology Series 6-5, NOAA/National Climatic Data Center, 162 pp.

Bliss, A., R. Hock and V. Radić, 2014: Global response of glacier runoff to twenty-first century climate change. *J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surf.*, **119**, 717-730, doi:10.1002/2013JF002931.

Boden, T. A., G. Marland, and R. J. Andres, 2015: Global, regional, and national fossil-fuel CO₂ emissions. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, doi:10.3334/CDIAC/00001_V2015.

Bodhaine, B. A, B. G. Mendonca, J. M. Harris, and J. M. Miller, 1981: Seasonal variations in aerosols and atmospheric transmission at Mauna Loa Observatory. *J. Geophys. Res.*, **86** (C6), 7395-7398, doi:10.1029/JC086iC08p07395.

Boeckli, L., A. Brenning, S. Gruber, and J. Noetzli, 2012: Permafrost distribution in the European Alps: Calculation and evaluation of an index map and summary statistics. *Cryosphere*, **6**, 807-820, doi:10.5194/tc-6-807-2012.

Boening, C., J. K. Willis, F. W. Landerer, R. S. Nerem, and J. Fasullo, 2012: The 2011 La Niña: So strong, the oceans fell. *Geophys. Res. Lett.*, **39**, L19602, doi:10.1029/2012GL053055.

Boitsov, V. D., A. L. Karsakov, and A. G. Trofimov, 2012: Atlantic water temperature and climate in the Barents Sea, 2000-2009. *ICES J. Mar. Sci.*, **69**, 833-840, doi:10.1093/icesjms/fss075.

Bojinski, S., M. Verstraete, T. C. Peterson, C. Richter, A. Simmons, and M. Zemp, 2014: The concept of essential climate variables in support of climate research, applications, and policy. *Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.*, **95**, 1431-1443, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00047.1.

BoM, 2016: Annual climate report 2015. Bureau of Meteorology Australia. [Available online at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/aus/2015/].
Bond, N. A., M. F. Cronin, H. Freeland, and N. Mantua, 2015: Causes and impacts of the 2014 warm anomaly in the NE Pacific. *Geophys. Res. Lett.*, **42**, 3414–3420, doi:10.1002/2015GL063306.

Bonjean, F., and G. Lagerloef, 2002: Diagnostic model and analysis of the surface currents in the tropical Pacific Ocean. *J. Phys. Oceanogr.*, **32**, 2938–2954, doi:10.1175/1520-0485(2002)032<2938:DMAAOT>2.0.CO;2.

Bosilovich, M. G., and Coauthors, 2015: MERRA-2: Initial evaluation of the climate. NASA/TM-2015-104606, Vol. 43, 136 pp. [Available online at http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/reanalysis/MERRA-2/docs/].

Boucher, O., and Coauthors, 2013: Clouds and aerosols. *Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis*, T. F. Stocker et al. Eds., Cambridge University Press, 573–657.

Bourassa, A. E., D. A. Degenstein, W. J. Randel, J. M. Zawodny, E. Kyrölä, C. A. McLinden, C. E. Sioris, and C. Z. Roth, 2014: Trends in stratospheric ozone derived from merged SAGE II and Odin-OSIRIS satellite observations. *Atmos. Chem. Phys.*, **14**, 6983–6994, doi:10.5194/acp-14-6983-2014.

Box, J. E., and K. Hansen, 2015: Survey of Greenland glacier area changes. *PROMICE Newsletter*, Vol. 8, Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Copenhagen, Denmark, 1–2. [Available online at http://promice.org/Newsletter_08.pdf.]

—, X. Fettweis, J. C. Stroeve, M. Tedesco, D. K. Hall, and K. Steffen, 2012: Greenland ice sheet albedo feedback: Thermodynamics and atmospheric drivers. *Cryosphere*, **6**, 821–839, doi:10.5194/tc-6-821-2012.

Boyd, P. W., and M. J. Ellwood, 2010: The biogeochemical cycle of iron in the ocean. *Nat. Geosci.*, **3**, 675–682, doi:10.1038/ngeo964.

Boyer, T. P., S. Levitus, J. I. Antonov, J. R. Reagan, C. Schmid, and R. Locarnini, 2012: Subsurface salinity [in “State of the Climate in 2011”]. *Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.*, **93** (7), S72–S75.

—, and Coauthors, 2013: *World Ocean Database 2013*. S. Levitus, Ed., NOAA Atlas NESDIS 72, 209 pp.

Brasnett, B., 1999: A global analysis of snow depth for numerical weather prediction. *J. Appl. Meteor.*, **38**, 726–740, doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1999)038<0726:AGAOSD>2.0.CO;2.

Bromwich, D. H., and S.-H. Wang, 2014: Net precipitation (P – E) [in “State of the Climate in 2013”]. *Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.*, **95** (7), S147–S149, doi:10.1175/2014BAMSStateoftheClimate.1.

—, and S.-H. Wang, 2015: Net precipitation (P – E) [in “State of the Climate in 2014”]. *Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.*, **96** (7), S153–S159, doi:10.1175/2015BAMSStateoftheClimate.1.

—, A. J. Monaghan, and Z. Guo, 2004: Modeling the ENSO modulation of Antarctic climate in the late 1990s with Polar MM5. *J. Climate*, **17**, 109–132, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<0109:MTEMOA>2.0.CO;2.

—, R. L. Fogt, K. E. Hodges, and J. E. Walsh, 2007: A tropospheric assessment of the ERA-40, NCEP, and JRA-25 global reanalyses in the polar regions. *J. Geophys. Res.*, **112**, D10111, doi:10.1029/2006JD007859.

—, J. P. Nicolas, and A. J. Monaghan, 2011: An assessment of precipitation changes over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean since 1989 in contemporary global reanalyses. *J. Climate*, **24**, 4189–4209, doi:10.1175/2011JCLI4074.1.

Brown, J., Hinkel K. and Nelson F., 2000: The Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) program: Research designs and initial results. *Polar Geogr.*, **24**, 166–258, doi:10.1080/10889370009377698.

Butchart, N., and E. E. Remsberg, 1986: The area of the stratospheric polar vortex as a diagnostic for tracer transport on an isentropic surface. *J. Atmos. Sci.*, **43**, 1319–1339, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1986)043<1319:TA OTSP>2.0.CO;2.

Callaghan, T., and Coauthors, 2011: The changing face of Arctic snow cover: A synthesis of observed and projected changes. *Ambio*, **40**, 17–31, doi:10.1007/s13280-011-0212-y.

Camargo, S. J., and A. H. Sobel, 2005: Western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity and ENSO. *J. Climate*, **18**, 2996–3006, doi:10.1175/JCLI3457.1.

—, K. A. Emanuel, and A. H. Sobel, 2007: Use of a genesis potential index to diagnose ENSO effects on tropical cyclone genesis. *J. Climate*, **20**, 4819–4834, doi:10.1175/JCLI4282.1.

—, M. C. Wheeler, and A. H. Sobel, 2009: Diagnosis of the MJO modulation of tropical cyclogenesis using an empirical index. *J. Atmos. Sci.*, **66**, 3061–3074, doi:10.1175/2009JAS3101.1.

Cappelen, J., Ed., 2015. Greenland—DMI Historical Climate Data Collection 1784–2014. Danish Meteorological Institute Tech. Rep. 15-04, 97 pp. [Available online at www.dmi.dk/fileadmin/user_upload/Rapporter/TR/2015/tr15-04.pdf.]

Carpenter, L. J., and Coauthors, 2014: Ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and other gases of interest to the Montreal Protocol. *Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2014*, Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project Rep. 55, World Meteorological Organization, 1.1–1.101.
Carrer, D., X. Ceamanos, B. Six, and J-L. Roujean, 2014: AERUS-GEO: A newly available satellite-derived aerosol optical depth product over Europe and Africa. *Geophys. Res. Lett.*, **41**, 7731–7738, doi:10.1002/2014GL061707.

Carton, J. A., G. A. Chepurin, J. Reagan, and S. Häkkinen, 2011: Interannual to decadal variability of Atlantic Water in the Nordic and adjacent seas. *J. Geophys. Res.*, **116**, C11035, doi:10.1029/2011JC007102.

—, A. Cunningham, E. Frajka-Williams, Y.-O. Kwon, D. Marshall, and R. Msadek, 2014: The Atlantic overturning circulation: More evidence of variability and links to climate. *Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.*, **95**, ES163–ES166, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00234.1.

Carturan, L., F. Cazorzi, F. De Blasi, and G. Dalla Fontana, 2015: Air temperature variability over three glaciers in the Ortles–Cedvedale (Italian Alps) effects of glacier fragmentation, comparison of calculation methods, and impacts on mass balance modeling. *Cryosphere*, **9**, 1129–1146, doi:10.5194/tc-9-1129-2015.

Cassou, C., 2008: Intraseasonal interaction between the Madden Julian Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. *Nature*, **455**, 523–527, doi:10.1038/nature07286.

Cavalieri, D. J., C. L. Parkinson, P. Gloersen, and H. Zwally, 1996 (updated yearly): Sea ice concentrations from Nimbus-7 SMMR and DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS passive microwave data, version 1 [1981–2011]. National Snow and Ice Data Center Distributed Active Archive Center, accessed 2016, doi:10.5067/8GQ8LZQVL0VL.

Cavicchia, L., H. von Storch, and S. Gualdi, 2014: S. Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones in present and future climate. *J. Climate*, **27**, 7493–7501, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00339.1.

Chandra, S., J. R. Ziemke, W. Min, and W. G. Read, 1998: Effects of 1997–1998 El Niño on tropospheric ozone and water vapor. *Geophys. Res. Lett.*, **25**, 3867–3870, doi:10.1029/98GL02695.

—, —, B. N. Duncan, T. L. Diehl, N. Livesey, and L. Froidevaux, 2009: Effects of the 2006 El Niño on tropospheric ozone and carbon monoxide: Implications for dynamics and biomass burning. *Atmos. Chem. Phys.*, **9**, 4239–4249, doi:10.5194/acp-9-4239-2009.

Chehade, W., M. Weber, and J. P. Burrows, 2014: Total ozone trends and variability during 1979–2012 from merged data sets of various satellites. *Atmos. Chem. Phys.*, **14**, 7059–7074, doi:10.5194/acp-14-7059-2014.

Chelton, D. B., and R. E. Davis, 1982: Monthly mean sea-level variability along the West Coast of North America. *J. Phys. Oceanogr.*, **12**, 757–784, doi:10.1175/1520-0485(1982)012<0757:MMSLVA>2.0.CO;2.

Chen, Y., D. C. Morton, Y. Jin, G. J. Gollatz, P. S. Kasibhatla, G. R. van der Werf, R. S. DeFries, and J. T. Randerson, 2013: Long-term trends and interannual variability of forest, savanna and agricultural fires in South America. *Carbon Manage.*, **4**, 617–638, doi:10.4155/cmt.13.61.

Chepurin, G. A., and J. A. Carton, 2012: Subarctic and Arctic sea surface temperature and its relation to ocean heat content 1982–2010. *J. Geophys. Res.*, **117**, C06019, doi:10.1029/2011JC007770.

Chia, H. H., and C. F. Ropelewski, 2002: The interannual variability in the genesis location of tropical cyclones in the northwest Pacific. *J. Climate*, **15**, 2934–2944, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2934:TIVITG>2.0.CO;2.

Chiou, E. W., and Coauthors, 2014: Comparison of profile total ozone from SBUV (v8.6) with GOME-type and ground-based total ozone for a 16-year period (1996 to 2011). *Atmos. Meas. Tech.*, **7**, 1681–1692, doi:10.5194/amt-7-1681-2014.

Christiansen, H. H., and Coauthors, 2010: The thermal state of permafrost in the Nordic area during the International Polar Year 2007–2009. *Permafr. Periglac. Process.*, **21**, 156–181, doi:10.1002/ppp.687.

Christiansen, J. S., C. W. Mecklenburg, and O. V. Karamushko, 2014: Arctic marine fishes and fisheries in light of global change. *Global Change Biol.*, **20**, 352–359, doi:10.1111/gcb.12395.

Christy, J., 2014: Lower tropospheric temperature [in "State of the Climate in 2013"). *Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.*, **95** (7), S10–S11.

—, 2015: Lower tropospheric temperature [in "State of the Climate in 2014"). *Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.*, **96** (7), S9–S10.

—, R. W. Spencer, W. B. Norris, W. D. Braswell, and D. E. Parker, 2003: Error estimates of version 5.0 of MSU-AMSU bulk atmospheric temperatures. *J. At-mos. Oceanic Technol.*, **20**, 613–629, doi:10.1175/1520-0426(2003)20<613:EEOVOM>2.0.CO;2.

Chrysanthou, A., G. Van der Schrier, E. J. M. Van den Besselaar, A. M. G. Klein Tank, and T. Brandsma, 2014: The effects of urbanization on the rise of the European temperature since 1960. *Geophys. Res. Lett.*, **41**, 21, 7716–7722, doi:10.1002/2014GL061154
Chu, J. H., C. R. Sampson, A. S. Levine, and E. Fukada, 2002: The Joint Typhoon Warning Center tropical cyclone best-tracks, 1945–2000. Ref. NRL/MR/7540-02-16, Naval Research Laboratory. [Available online at http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/best tracks/TC bt report.html.]

Chung, E.-S., B. J. Soden, and V. O. John, 2013: Intercalibrating microwave satellite observations for monitoring long-term variations in upper- and midtropospheric water vapor. *J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol.*, **30**, 2303–2319, doi:10.1175/JTECH-D-13-00001.1.

—, —, X. Huang, L. Shi, and V. O. John, 2016: An assessment of the consistency between satellite measurements of upper tropospheric water vapour, revised. *J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.*, **121**, 2874–2887, doi:10.1002/2015JD024496.

Ciais, P., and Coauthors, 2013: Carbon and other biogeochemical cycles. *Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis*, T. F. Stocker, et al. Eds., Cambridge University Press, 465–570.

Coelho, C. A. S., D. H. F. Cardoso, and M. A. F. Firpo, 2016a: Precipitation diagnostics of an exceptionally dry event in São Paulo, Brazil. *Theor. Appl. Climatol.*, doi:10.1007/s00704-015-1540-9, in press.

—, and Coauthors, 2016b: The 2014 southeast Brazil austral summer drought: Regional scale mechanisms and teleconnections. *Climate Dyn.*, **46**, 3737–3752, doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2800-1.

Coldewey-Egbers, M., D. Loyola, P. Braesicke, M. Dameris, M. van Roozendael, C. Lerot, and W. Zimmer, 2014: A new health check of the ozone layer at global and regional scales. *Geophys. Res. Lett.*, **41**, 4363–4372, doi:10.1002/2014GL060212.

—, and Coauthors, 2015: The GOME-type Total Ozone Essential Climate Variable (GTO-ECV) data record from the ESA Climate Change Initiative. *Atmos. Meas. Tech.*, **8**, 3923–3940, doi:10.5194/amt-8-3923-2015.

Cooper, O. R., and J. R. Ziemke, 2013: Tropospheric ozone [in “State of the Climate in 2012”]. *Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.*, **94** (8), S38–S39.

—, and —, 2014: Tropospheric ozone [in “State of the Climate in 2013”]. *Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.*, **95** (7), S42.

—, and —, 2015: Tropospheric ozone [in “State of the Climate in 2014”]. *Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.*, **96** (7), S48–S49.

—, and Coauthors, 2014: Global distribution and trends of tropospheric ozone: An observation-based review. *Elementa Sci. Anthropocene*, **2**, 000029, doi:10.12952/journal.elementa.000029.

Cross, J. N., and Coauthors, 2014: Annual sea-air CO₂ fluxes in the Bering Sea: Insights from new autumn and winter observations of a seasonally ice-covered continental shelf. *J. Geophys. Res. Oceans*, **119**, 6692–6708, doi:10.1002/2013JC009579.

Curtis, S., and R. Adler, 2000: ENSO indexes based on patterns of satellite-derived precipitation. *J. Climate*, **13**, 2786–2793, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<2786:EIBOPO>2.0.CO;2.

Dai, A., 2006: Recent climatology, variability, and trends in global surface humidity. *J. Climate*, **19**, 3589–3606, doi:10.1175/JCLI3816.1.

—, 2013: Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models. *Nat. Climate Change*, **3**, 52–58, doi:10.1038/nclimate1633.

Dalpadado, P., R. B. Ingvaldsen, L. C. Stige, B. Bogstad, T. Knutsen, G. Ottersen, and B. Ellertsen, 2012: Climate effects on Barents Sea ecosystem dynamics. *ICES J. Mar. Sci.*, **69**, 1303–1316, doi:10.1093/icesjms/fss063.

—, and Coauthors, 2014: Productivity in the Barents Sea—Response to recent climate variability. *PLoS One*, **9**, e95273, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0095273.

Daniel, J. S., S. Solomon, and D. L. Albritton, 1995: On the evaluation of halocarbon radiative forcing and global warming potentials. *J. Geophys. Res.*, **100**, 1271–1285, doi:10.1029/94JD02516.

Davis, S. M., D. F. Hurst, and K. H. Rosenlof, 2015: Stratospheric water vapor [in “State of the Climate in 2014”]. *Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.*, **96** (7), S46–S48.

De Jeu, R., W. Dorigo, W. Wagner, and Y. Liu, 2011: Soil moisture [in “State of the Climate in 2010”]. *Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.*, **92** (6), S52–S53.

—, —, R. M. Parinussa, W. Wagner, and D. Chung, 2012a: Soil moisture [in “State of the Climate in 2011”]. *Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.*, **93** (7), S30–S34.

—, —, —, —, Y. Y. Liu, D. Chung, and D. Fernández-Prieto, 2012b: Building a climate record of soil moisture from historical satellite observations [in “State of the Climate in 2011”]. *Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.*, **93** (7), S32–S33.

de Laat, A. T. J., R. J. van der A, and M. van Weele, 2015: Tracing the second stage of ozone recovery in the Antarctic ozone-hole with a “big data” approach to multivariate regressions. *Atmos. Chem. Phys.*, **15**, 79–97, doi:10.5194/acp-15-79-2015.

de Lima, M. I., F. E. Santo, A. M. Ramos, and J. L. M. P. de Lima, 2013: Recent changes in daily precipitation and surface air temperature extremes in mainland Portugal, in the period 1941–2007. *Atmos. Res.*, **127**, 195–209, doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.10.001.
de Pablo, M. A., M. Ramos, and M. Molina, 2014: Thermal characterization of the active layer at the Limnopolar Lake CALM-S site on Byers Peninsula (Livingston Island), Antarctica. *Solid Earth*, **5**, 721-739, doi:10.5194/se-5-721-2014.

de Ronde, C. E. J., and Coauthors, 2002: Discovery of active hydrothermal venting in Lake Taupo, New Zealand. *J. Volcanol. Geotherm.*, **115**, 257-275, doi:10.1016/S0377-0273(01)00332-8.

Dee, D. P., and Coauthors, 2011: The ERA-Interim re-analysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. *Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.*, **137**, 553-597, doi:10.1002/qj.828.

Deeter, M. N., and Coauthors, 2013: Validation of MOPITT Version 5 thermal-infrared, near-infrared, and multispectral carbon monoxide profile retrievals for 2000–2011. *J. Geophys. Res.*, **118**, 6710–6725, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50272.

Deser, M., A. Alexander, S. P. Xie, and A. S. Phillips, 2010: Sea surface temperature variability: Patterns and mechanisms. *Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci.*, **2**, 115-143, doi:10.1146/annurev-marine-120408-151453.

DeVries, T., 2014: The oceanic anthropogenic CO₂ sink: Storage, air-sea fluxes, and transports over the industrial era. *Global Biogeochem. Cycles*, **28**, 631–647, doi:10.1002/2013GB004739.

Dewitte, S., D. Crommelnick, and A. Joukof, 2004: Total solar irradiance observations from DIARAD/VIRGO. *J. Geophys. Res.*, **109**, A02102, doi:10.1029/2002JA009694.

Di Girolamo, L., A. Menzies, G. Zhao, K. Mueller, C. Moroney, and D. J. Diner, 2010: Multi-angle imaging spectroradiometer level 3 cloud fraction by altitude algorithm theoretical basis document. JPL Publ. D-62358, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, 23 pp.

Diamond, H. J., Ed., 2013: Tropics [in "State of the Climate in 2012"). *Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.*, **94** (8), S79-S110.

—, Ed., 2014: Tropics [in "State of the Climate in 2013"). *Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.*, **95** (8), S81-S114.

—, Ed., 2015: Tropics [in "State of the Climate in 2014"). *Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.*, **96** (7), S91-S126.

—, A. M. Lorrey, K. R. Knapp, and D. H. Levinson, 2012: Development of an enhanced tropical cyclone tracks database for the southwest Pacific from 1840 to 2011. *Int. J. Climatol.*, **32**, 2240-2250, doi:10.1002/joc.2412.

Dickson, R., J. Lazier, J. Meincke, P. Rhines, and J. Swift, 1996: Long-term coordinated changes in the convective activity of the North Atlantic. *Prog. Oceanogr.*, **38**, 241-295, doi:10.1016/S0079-6611(97)00002-5.

Dlugokencky, E. J., E. G. Nisbet, R. Fisher, and D. Lowry, 2011: Global atmospheric methane: Budget, changes and dangers. *Philos. Trans. Roy. Soc. London*, **369A**, 2058-2072, doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0341.

Dohan, K., G. Goni, and R. Lumpkin, 2015: Surface currents [in "State of the Climate in 2014"). *Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.*, **96** (7), S64-S66, S68.

Doherty, R. M., D. S. Stevenson, C. E. Johnson, W. J. Collins, and M. G. Sanderson, 2006: Tropospheric ozone and El Niño-Southern Oscillation: Influence of atmospheric dynamics, biomass burning emissions, and future climate change. *J. Geophys. Res.*, **111**, D19304, doi:10.1029/2005JD006849.

Dokulil, M. T., A. Herzig, B. Somogyi, L. Vörös, K. Donabaum, L. May, and T. Nöges, 2014: Winter conditions in European shallow lakes: A comparative synopsis. Est. *J. Ecol.*, **63**, 111-129, doi:10.3176/eco.2014.3.01.

Domingues, C. M., J. A. Church, N. J. White, P. J. Gleckler, S. E. Wijffels, P. M. Barker, and J. R. Dunn, 2008: Improved estimates of upper-ocean warming and multi-decadal sea-level rise. *Nature*, **453**, 1090-1093, doi:10.1038/nature07080.

Domingues, R., and Coauthors, 2015: Upper ocean response to Hurricane Gonzalo (2014): Salinity effects revealed by targeted and sustained underwater glider observations. *Geophys. Res. Lett.*, **42**, 7131-7138, doi:10.1002/2015GL065378.

Donat, M. G., L. V. Alexander, H. Yang, I. Durre, R. Vose, and J. Caesar, 2013: Global land-based datasets for monitoring climatic extremes. *Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.*, **94**, 997-1006, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00109.1.

Doney, S. C., and Coauthors, 2012: Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems. *Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci.*, **4**, 11-37, doi:10.1146/annurev-marine-041911-111611.

Dong, S., S. L. Garzoli, M. O. Baringer, C. S. Meinen, and G. J. Goni, 2009: The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and its northward heat transport in the South Atlantic. *Geophys. Res. Lett.*, **36**, L20606, doi:10.1029/2009GL039356.

—, G. Goni, and F. Bringas, 2015: Temporal variability of the meridional overturning circulation in the South Atlantic between 20°S and 35°S. *Geophys. Res. Lett.*, **42**, 7655-7662, doi:10.1002/2015GL065603.

Dorigo, W., R. De Jeu, D. Chung, R. Parinussa, Y. Liu, W. Wagner, and D. Fernández-Prieto, 2012: Evaluating global trends (1988-2010) in harmonized multi-satellite surface soil moisture. *Geophys. Res. Lett.*, **39**, L18405, doi:10.1029/2012GL052988.

—, and Coauthors, 2014: Soil moisture [in "State of the Climate in 2013"). *Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.*, **95** (7), S25-S26.
—, C. Reimer, D. Chung, R. M. Parinussa, T. Melzer, W. Wagner, R. A. M. de Jeu, and R. Kidd, 2015a: Soil moisture [in "State of the Climate in 2014"). *Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.*, **96** (7), S28-S29.

—, and Coauthors, 2015b: Evaluation of the ESA CCI soil moisture product using ground-based observations. *Remote Sens. Environ.*, **162**, 380-395, doi:10.1016/j.rse.2014.07.023.

—, and R. De Jeu, 2016: Satellite soil moisture for advancing our understanding of Earth system processes and climate change. *Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs. Geoinf.*, **48**, 1-4, doi:10.1016/j.jag.2016.02.007.

Douville, H., A. Ribes, B. Decharme, R. Alkama, and J. Sheffield, 2013: Anthropogenic influence on multi-decadal changes in reconstructed global evapotranspiration. *Nat. Climate Change*, **3**, 59-62, doi:10.1038/nclimate1632.

Drozdov, D., and Coauthors, 2015: Monitoring of permafrost in Russia and the international GTN-P project. *Proc. 68th Canadian Geotechnical Conf. (GEOQuébec 2015)*, Québec, Canada, GEOQuébec.

Duchesne, C., S. L. Smith, M. Ednie, and P. P. Bonnaventure, 2015: Active layer variability and change in the Mackenzie Valley, Northwest Territories. *Proc. 68th Canadian Geotechnical Conf. and Seventh Canadian Conf. on Permafrost (GEOQuébec 2015)*, Québec, Canada, GEOQuébec, Paper 117.

Duchez, A., and Coauthors, 2014: A new index for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26°N. *J. Climate*, **27**, 6439-6455, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00052.1.

Ducklow, H., and Coauthors, 2013: West Antarctic Peninsula: An ice-dependent coastal marine ecosystem in transition. *Oceanography*, **26**, 190-203, doi:10.5670/oceanog.2013.62.

Dunn, R. J. H., K. M. Willett, P. W. Thorne, E. V. Woolley, I. Durre, A. Dai, D. E. Parker, and R. S. Vose, 2012: HadISD: A quality-controlled global synoptic report database for selected variables at long-term stations from 1973-2011. *Climate Past*, **8**, 1649-1679, doi:10.5194/cp-8-1649-2012.

—, M. G. Donat, and T. Peterson, 2015: Temperature extreme indices [in "State of the Climate in 2014"). *Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.*, **96** (7), S15-S16.

Durack, P. J., S. E. Wijffels, and P. J. Gleckler, 2014: Long-term sea-level change revisited: The role of salinity. *Environ. Res. Lett.*, **9**, 114017, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/114017.

Dutton, E. G., 1992: A coherence between the QBO and the amplitude of the Mauna Loa atmospheric transmission annual cycle. *Int. J. Climatol.*, **12**, 383-396, doi:10.1002/joc.3370120406.

—, and B. A. Bodhaine, 2001: Solar irradiance anomalies caused by clear-sky transmission variations above Mauna Loa: 1958-1999. *J. Climate*, **14**, 3255-3262, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<3255:SI ACBC>2.0.CO;2.

—, J. J. Deluisi and A. P. Austrang, 1985: Interpretation of Mauna Loa atmospheric transmission relative to aerosols, using photometric precipitable water amounts. *J. Atmos. Chem.*, **3**, 53-68, doi:10.1007/BF00049368.

Dvortsov, V., and S. Solomon, 2001: Response of the stratospheric temperatures and ozone to past and future increases in stratospheric humidity. *J. Geophys. Res.*, **106**, 7505-7514, doi:10.1029/2000JD900637.

Ebita, A., and Coauthors, 2011: The Japanese 55-year Reanalysis "JRA-55": An interim report. SOLA, **7**, 149-152, doi:10.2151/sola.2011-038.

Ednie, M., and S. L. Smith, 2015: Permafrost temperature data 2008-2014 from community based monitoring sites in Nunavut. Geological Survey of Canada Open File 7784, doi:10.4095/296705.

Edson, J., and Coauthors, 2013: On the exchange of momentum over the open ocean. *J. Phys. Oceanogr.*, **43**, 1589-1610, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-12-0173.1.

Ellis, H. T., and R. F. Pueschel, 1971: Solar radiation: Absence of air pollution trends at Mauna Loa. *Science*, **172**, 845-846.

Emanuel, K. A., 1988: The maximum intensity of hurricanes. *J. Atmos. Sci.*, **45**, 1143-1155, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1988)045<1143:TMIOH>2.0.CO;2.

—, 1995: Sensitivity of tropical cyclones to surface exchange coefficients and a revised steady-state model incorporating eye dynamics. *J. Atmos. Sci.*, **52**, 3969-3976, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1995)052<3969:SOTCT S>2.0.CO;2.

—, and D. S. Nolan, 2004: Tropical cyclone activity and the global climate system. *Proc. 26th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology*, Miami, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 10A.2. [Available online at https://ams.confex.com/ams/26HURR/techprogram/paper_75463.htm.]

Enfield, D. B., and J. S. Allen, 1980: On the structure and dynamics of monthly mean sea level anomalies along the Pacific coast of North and South America. *J. Phys. Oceanogr.*, **10**, 557-578, doi:10.1175/1520-0485(1980)010<0557:OTSADO>2.0.CO;2.

—, and A. M. Mestas-Nuñez, 1999: Multiscale variabilities in global sea surface temperatures and their relationships with tropospheric climate patterns. *J. Climate*, **12**, 2719-2733, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<2719:MVIGSS>2.0.CO;2.
—, —, and P. J. Trimble, 2001: The Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation and its relationship to rainfall and river flows in the continental US. *Geophys. Res. Lett.*, **28**, 2077–2080, doi:10.1029/2000GL012745.

England, M. H., and Coauthors, 2014: Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus. *Nat. Climate Change*, **4**, 222–227, doi:10.1038/nclimate2106.

Esaias, W. E., and Coauthors, 1998: An overview of MODIS capabilities for ocean science observations. *IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens.*, **36**, 1250–1265, doi:10.1109/36.701076.

Estilow, T., and Coauthors, updated 2013: The climate data guide: Snow cover extent (Northern Hemisphere) climate data record, by Rutgers. Data accessed 2015. [Available online at https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/snow-cover-extent-northern-hemisphere-climate-data-record-rutgers.]

Evans, W., and Coauthors, 2015: Sea-air CO₂ exchange in the western Arctic coastal ocean. *Global Biogeochem. Cycles*, **29**, 1190–1209, doi:10.1002/2015GB005153.

Falkowski, P. G., R. T. Barber, and V. Smetacek, 1998: Biogeochemical controls and feedbacks on ocean primary production. *Science*, **281**, 200–206, doi:10.1126/science.281.5374.200.

Farbrot, H., K. Isaksen, B. Etzelmüller, and K. Gisnås, 2013: Ground thermal regime and permafrost distribution under a changing climate in northern Norway. *Permafrost Periglacial Process.*, **24**, 20–38, doi:10.1002/ppp.1763.

Fasullo, J. T., C. Boening, F. W. Landerer, and R. S. Nerem, 2013: Australia's unique influence on global sea level in 2010–2011. *Geophys. Res. Lett.*, **40**, 4368–4373, doi:10.1002/grl.50834.

Fausto, R. S., and Coauthors, 2012: Ablation observations for 2008–2011 from the Programme for Monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet (PROMICE). *Geol. Surv. Denmark Greenl. Bull.*, **26**, 73–76.

Fay, F. H., 1982: Ecology and biology of the Pacific walrus, *Odobenus rosmarus divergens* Illiger. *North Amer. Fauna*, **74**, 1–279, doi:10.3996/nafa.74.0001.

—, B. P. Kelly, and J. L. Sease, 1989: Managing the exploitation of Pacific walruses: A tragedy of delayed response and poor communication. *Mar. Mamm. Sci.*, **5**, 1–16, doi:10.1111/j.1748-7692.1989.tb00210.x.

Fekete, B. M., 2013: [Global Climate] River discharge [in “State of the Climate in 2012”]. *Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.*, **94** (8), S22–S23.

—, U. Looser, and R. D. Robarts, 2012: Rationale for monitoring discharge on the ground. *J. Hydrometeor.*, **13**, 1977–1986, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-11-0126.1.

Feng, W., M. Zhong, J.-M. Lemoine, R. Biancale, H.-T. Hsu, and J. Xia, 2013: Evaluation of groundwater depletion in North China using the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data and ground-based measurements. *Water Resour. Res.*, **49**, 2110–2118, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20192.

Fennig, K., A. Andersson, S. Bakan, C.-P. Klepp, and M. Schröder, 2012: Hamburg Ocean Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite Data-HOAPS 3.2-Monthly means/6-hourly composites. Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring, doi:10.5676/EUM_SAF_CM/HOAPS/V001.

Field, C. B., M. J. Behrenfeld, J. T. Randerson, and P. Falkowski, 1998: Primary production of the biosphere: Integrating terrestrial and oceanic components. *Science*, **281**, 237–240, doi:10.1126/science.281.5374.237.

Field, R. D., Y. Wang, O. Roswintiarti, and Guswanto, 2004: A drought-based predictor of recent haze events in western Indonesia. *Atmos. Environ.*, **38**, 1869–1878, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2004.01.011.

—, G. R. van der Werf, and S. S. P. Shen, 2009: Human amplification of drought-induced biomass burning in Indonesia since 1960. *Nat. Geosci.*, **2**, 185–188, doi:10.1038/ngeo443.

Fioletov, V. E., G. E. Bodeker, A. J. Miller, R. D. McPeters, and R. Stolarski, 2002: Global and zonal total ozone variations estimated from ground-based and satellite measurements: 1964–2000. *J. Geophys. Res.*, **107**, 4647, doi:10.1029/2001JD001350.

—, and Coauthors, 2008: The performance of the ground-based total ozone network assessed using satellite data. *J. Geophys. Res.*, **113**, D14313, doi:10.1029/2008JD009809.

Fischbach, A. S., D. H. Monson, and C. V. Jay, 2009: Enumeration of Pacific walrus carcasses on beaches of the Chukchi Sea in Alaska following a mortality event, September 2009. U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Rep. 2009–1291, 10 pp. [Available online at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2009/1291/.]

Fisher, J. B., K. P. Tu, and D. D. Baldocchi, 2008: Global estimates of the land-atmosphere water flux based on monthly AVHRR and ISLSCP-II data, validated at 16 FLUXNET sites. *Remote Sens. Environ.*, **112**, 901–919, doi:10.1016/j.rse.2007.06.025.Fishman, J., C. E. Watson, J. C. Larsen, and J. A. Logan, 1990: Distribution of tropospheric ozone determined from satellite data. *J. Geophys. Res.*, **95**, 3599–3617, doi:10.1029/JD095iD04p03599.

Flemming, J., and A. Inness, 2015: Carbon monoxide [in “State of the Climate in 2014”]. *Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.*, **96** (7), S49–S52.
—, and Coauthors, 2015: Tropospheric chemistry in the Integrated Forecasting System of ECMWF. *Geosci. Model Dev.*, **8**, 975–1003, doi:10.5194/gmd-8-975-2015.

Fofonoff, N. P., and E. L. Lewis, 1979: A practical salinity scale. *J. Oceanogr. Soc. Japan*, **35**, 63–64, doi:10.1007/BF02108283.

Fogt, R. L., D. H. Bromwich, and K. M. Hines, 2011: Understanding the SAM influence on the South Pacific ENSO teleconnection. *Climate Dyn.*, **36**, 1555–1576, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0905-0.

Folland, C. K., J. Knight, H. W. Linderholm, D. Fereday, S. Ineson, and J. W. Hurrell, 2009: The summer North Atlantic Oscillation: Past, present and future. *J. Climate*, **22**, 1082–1103, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2459.1.

Font, J., and Coauthors, 2013: SMOS first data analysis for sea surface salinity determination. *Int. J. Remote Sens.*, **34**, 3654–3670, doi:10.1080/01431161.2012.716541.

Foreman, C. M., C. F. Wolf, and J. C. Priscu, 2004: Impact of episodic warming events. *Aquat. Geochem.*, **10**, 239–268, doi:10.1007/s10498-004-2261-3.

Fossheim, M., R. Primicerio, E. Johannesen, R. B. Ingvaldsen, M. M. Aschan, and A. V. Dolgov, 2015: Recent warming leads to a rapid borealization of fish communities in the Arctic. *Nat. Climate Change*, **5**, 673–677, doi:10.1038/nclimate2647.

Fountain, A. G., G. L. Dana, K. J. Lewis, B. H. Vaughn, and D. M. McKnight, 1998: Glaciers of the McMurdo Dry Valleys, southern Victoria Land, Antarctica. *Ecosystem Dynamics in a Polar Desert: The McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica*. J. C. Priscu, Ed., Antarctic Research Series, Vol. 72, Amer. Geophys. Union, 65–75.

—, J. L. Campbell, E. A. G. Schuur, S. E. Stammerjohn, M. W. Williams, and H. W. Ducklow, 2012: The disappearing cryosphere: Impacts and ecosystem responses to rapid cryosphere loss. *BioScience*, **62**, 405–415, doi:10.1525/bio.2012.62.4.11.

Frajka-Williams, E., 2015: Estimating the Atlantic overturning at 26°N using satellite altimetry and cable measurements. *Geophys. Res. Lett.*, **42**, 3458–3464, doi:10.1002/2015GL063220.

Frank, W. M., and P. E. Roundy, 2006: The role of tropical waves in tropical cyclogenesis. *Mon. Wea. Rev.*, **134**, 2397–2417, doi:10.1175/MWR3204.1.

Frankignoul, C., and K. Hasselmann, 1977: Stochastic climate models, Part II: Application to sea-surface temperature anomalies and thermocline variability. *Tellus*, **29A**, 289–305, doi:10.1111/j.2153-3490.1977.tb00740.x.

Franz, B. A., M. J. Behrenfeld, D. A. Siegel, and P. J. Wardell, 2015: [Global Oceans] Phytoplankton [in "State of the Climate in 2014"). *Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.*, **96**, S85–S87.

Fraser, W. R., and E. E. Hofmann, 2003: A predator's perspective on causal links between climate change, physical forcing and ecosystem response. *Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser.*, **265**, 1–15, doi:10.3354/meps265001.

—, D. L. Patterson-Fraser, C. A. Ribic, O. Schofield, and H. Ducklow, 2013: A nonmarine source of variability in Adélie penguin demography. *Oceanography*, **26**, 207–209, doi:10.5670/oceanog.2013.64.

Freckman, D. W., and R. A. Virginia, 1997: Low-diversity Antarctic soil nematode communities: Distribution and response to disturbance. *Ecology*, **78**, 363–369, doi:10.1890/0012-9658(1997)078[0363:LDASNC]2.0.CO;2.

Free, M., D. J. Seidel, J. K. Angell, J. R. Lanzante, I. Durre, and T. C. Peterson, 2005: Radiosonde Atmospheric Temperature Products for Assessing Climate (RATPAC): A new dataset of large-area anomaly time series. *J. Geophys. Res.*, **110**, D22101, doi:10.1029/2005JD006169.

Friis, K., A. Körtzinger, J. Pätsch, and D. Wallace, 2005: On the temporal increase of anthropogenic CO₂ in the subpolar North Atlantic. *Deep-Sea Res. I*, **52**, 681–698, doi:10.1016/j.dsr.2004.11.017.

Frith, S. M., N. A. Kramarova, R. S. Stolarski, R. D. McPeters, P. K. Bhartia, and G. J. Labow, 2014: Recent changes in total column ozone based on the SBUV version 8.6 Merged Ozone Data Set. *J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.*, **119**, 9735–9751, doi:10.1002/2014JD021889.

Froidevaux, L., and Coauthors, 2015: Global Ozone Chemistry and Related Trace Gas Data Records for the Stratosphere (GOZCARDS): Methodology and sample results with a focus on HCl, H₂O, and O₃. *Atmos. Chem. Phys.*, **15**, 10471–10507, doi:10.5194/acp-15-10471-2015.

Fung, I., J. John, J. Lerner, E. Matthews, M. Prather, L. P. Steele, and P. J. Fraser, 1991: Three-dimensional model synthesis of the global methane cycle. *J. Geophys. Res.*, **96**, 13033–13065, doi:10.1029/91JD01247.

Gardner, A. S., and Coauthors, 2011: Sharply increased mass loss from glaciers and ice caps in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. *Nature*, **473**, 357–360, doi:10.1038/nature10089.

—, and Coauthors, 2013: A reconciled estimate of glacier contributions to sea level rise: 2003 to 2009. *Science*, **340**, 852–857, doi:10.1126/science.1234532.

Garzoli, S. L., M. O. Baringer, S. Dong, R. C. Perez, and Q. Yao, 2013: South Atlantic meridional fluxes. *Deep-Sea Res. I*, **71**, 21–32, doi:10.1016/j.dsr.2012.09.003.