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Connecting records of global-to-regional climate

John P Jasper, Eric Lichtfouse

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John P Jasper, Eric Lichtfouse. Connecting records of global-to-regional climate. Environmental Chemistry Letters, 2025, 23, pp.363-366. 10.1007/s10311-024-01800-9. hal-04860976

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Submitted on 1 Jan 2025

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# Connecting records of global-to-regional climate

John P. Jasper<fnref n="1" /> ID · Eric Lichtfouse<fnref n="2" /> ID

It's just weather. It's just natural cycles. It's not an exact science. It's a hoax... Despite the accumulating scientific evidence supported by numerous facts and observations spanning many decades, a substantial portion of the population doubts the observations that demonstrate the human causes of climate change. This hesitation may arise from the fact that scientific evidence often does not convince them and, indeed, research has shown that skepticism about the existence, the causes, and the consequences of climate change derives from socio-demographic features, political ideology, and psychological factors [1]. Here we summarize cogent data connecting global-to-regional climate change based on the levels and isotope compositions of atmospheric carbon dioxide since 1000 AD, the global temperature anomaly since 1880 AD, and the average Connecticut air temperatures since 1896 AD.

## Shrinking snow season

As longtime earth scientists, we noted this past winter a number of admittedly anecdotal observations spanning both Connecticut USA and the northern tier of the Western World. In Connecticut, downhill skiing season at a favored ski resort was essentially over by mid-March of this year. In France, where downhill skiing is a major business, 150 ski-tourism towns had fully closed their operations due to the lack of snow. In Europe, almost all ski-tourism towns are highly threatened by climate change-induced snow

melting [2]. In the 1990s, “spring skiing” in northern New England and France often extended into April–May, which has been less typical in recent years. Fellow cross-country skiers bemoaned the early degradation of snow conditions in March from Scandinavia across the Northeast United States into Alaska.

It is sometimes suggested that climate change is merely a semantic re-naming of global warming. In fact, NASA regards global warming as a long-term, whole-global temperature phenomenon, whereas climate change refers to the more-regional manifestations of temperature change, include rising sea levels, shrinking mountain glaciers and beach erosion [3].

## The two shades of carbon dioxide: the climatic forcing function

A key contributor identified in climate change is carbon dioxide ($CO_2$), a greenhouse gas which is generated by the burning of fossil fuels and other biomass materials. Figure 1 shows atmospheric $CO_2$ concentration and $^{13}$C isotope values spanning from 1000 to 2020. First, we note that the two curves are nearly mirror images with stable values from 1000 to 1850, with nearly-symmetrical changes after 1850, which marks the onset of the industrial revolution. While skeptics might argue that the increase of $CO_2$ concentrations could be of natural origin, the concomitant sharp $^{13}$C isotopic decrease from – 6.5 to – 8.0 ‰ is very strong evidence for an anthropogenic contribution. Indeed, the $^{13}$C isotopic composition of fossil fuels of about – 27 ‰, is much lower than the average $^{13}$C isotopic composition of the preceding historical background atmospheric $CO_2$, of about – 6.5 ‰. Therefore, the recent, massive input of fossil fuel $CO_2$ accounts for the decrease of the atmospheric $^{13}$C isotopic composition to – 8 ‰. For those unfamiliar with isotopic science, you may imagine that isotopic compositions are ‘colors’* and that the color of natural $CO_2$ is blue and that of fossil fuel $CO_2$ is red. With this, the decrease of the $CO_2$ isotopic composition after 1850, plummeting after

This article is a modified version of *Connecting Records of Global Climate* published by John P. Jasper in The Day, July 21, 2024.

<figure><img src="image_2.png" /></figure>

John P. Jasper
JPJasper@NaturesFingerprint.com
Eric Lichtfouse
eric.lichtfouse@icloud.com

<footnote n="1">¹ Molecular Isotope Technologies LLC, Niantic, CT, USA</footnote>

<footnote n="2">² State Key Laboratory of Multiphase Flow in Power Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China</footnote>
**Fig. 1** Global records of CO₂ pressure and carbon isotopes spanning the last 1000 years from the CSIRO [4]. The major points are that while CO₂ concentration had remained relatively constant at about 280 parts per million for about 850 years, it rapidly increased in the last 170 years or so. The carbon-isotopic record of the CO₂ was a virtual mirror image, consistent with fossil-fuel and land-use biomass combustion

<figure><img src="image_3.png" /></figure>

1960, would mean that the CO₂ color is turning from blue to purple due to the introduction of 'red' fossil fuel CO₂.
*Please note that CO₂ has no color, and the use of the term 'color' is used here for illustrative purposes.

## Global temperatures

The overall increase of global air temperatures provides important insight of the human influence on climate (Fig. 2). Here the temperature anomaly record compares recent temperatures with 1880–1920 temperatures as a baseline of

normal temperatures. The temperature anomaly increases smoothly by about +0.2 °C from 1920 to 1960, which corresponds mainly to the period of industrialization with increasing coal combustion. Then the temperature anomaly rises sharply after 1970 to reach +1.4 °C in 2023, which fits well with the accelerating industrialization, urbanization, and petroleum consumption worldwide. Therefore, these data record on the global scale strongly support the suggestion that human activities are mainly responsible of the rising temperatures. Skeptics might argue that temperature rise could be entirely of natural origin because similar variations have occurred in the past at geological time scales

**Fig. 2** Global temperature relative to 1880–1920 based on the Goddard Institute of Space Science analysis [6]. The main point is that the global temperature has episodically risen over the last 150 years and is predicted to rise at an accelerated rate into 2050. Easy-to-read visuals of warming for the globe, regions, countries and towns are available in the ShowYourStripes website [7]

<figure><img src="image_4.png" /></figure>
<figure><img src="image_5.png" /><figcaption>**Fig. 3** Time-series record of average Connecticut air temperatures spanning 1896–2023. The main point is that Connecticut air temperatures have generally increased for the last 127 years</figcaption></figure>

[5]. However, significant proof of an anthropogenic effect is provided by observed historical records of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, carbon-isotopic compositions, and temperatures.

## Regional temperatures

As scientists, and as colleagues to some of the deep ice-core investigators who identified the rise in carbon dioxide on earth during the past century and a half, we plotted a century-scale record of Connecticut's average air temperature to compare to preceding global records of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) and air temperatures. Figure 3 displays a distinct average increase of air temperatures of 1.99 degrees C from 1896 to 2023 in Connecticut. In large measure, the regional (Connecticut) temperature record tracked the global temperature increase. We submit that similar comparisons of regional temperatures to global temperatures could illustratively be produced for any region around the world for which long-term temperature records were available.

In the absence of global warming or climate change, all of the three preceding graphs should have been flat. In fact, all three key indices are distinctly increasing at accelerated rates toward the upper right, i.e., into the present and the near future: the global atmospheric pCO₂, the average global temperature, and the average Connecticut air temperature. Taken together, global CO₂ rise is consistent with global- and regional air temperature increase. Further, NOAA National Centers for Environmental State Climate Summaries 2022 project that Connecticut temperatures will increase by approximately 1.4 to 7.8 degrees by year 2100. Further exhaustive evidence of human influence on the climate system is reported in the IPCC Sixth Assessment [8].

## Why be concerned?

Because we are variously degrading our environment in barely-perceptible slow motion—barely perceptible by human observational scales, but made clear here by scientific graphical presentation. Regarding a resolution of the global climatic problem, an eminent marine geochemist recently aptly stated that we will need to markedly decrease the atmospheric CO₂ level and to substantially decrease the input of CO₂ into the atmosphere from fossil fuel and biomass burning as well as to increase the CO₂ removal. For that, research is actively developing solutions to sequester CO₂ [9]. Further, artificial intelligence and the future circular economy should help to define strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change [10, 11]. In summary, global CO₂ concentrations drive global average temperature, which are typically strongly related to regional temperatures. Global warming affects every person on the face of the earth. For those interested in the future of global climate matters, we recommend two books [12, 13] and one trade journal: American Chemical Society's *Chemical and Engineering (C&E) News*.

## References

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2. François, H., Samacoïts, R., Bird, D.N et al (2023) Climate change exacerbates snow-water-energy challenges for European ski tourism. Nat Clim Chang 13:935-942. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01759-5

3. NASA (2024) What's the difference between climate change and global warming? https://science.nasa.gov/climate-change/faq/whats-the-difference-between-climate-change-and-global-warming. Accessed Nov 1 2024.
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5. CenCO₂PIP Consortium (2023) The Cenozoic CO₂ Proxy Integration Project (CenCO₂PIP) Consortium. Toward a Cenozoic history of atmospheric CO₂. Science 382, eadi5177. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adi5177

6. Hansen J., Malika S., Kharecha P. (2024) Global warming acceleration: hope vs hopium https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/maili ngs/2024/Hopium.MarchEmail.2024.03.29.pdf. Accessed Nov 1 2024

7. Hawkings E. (2024) https://showyourstripes.info. Accessed November 1, 2024.

8. Eyring, V., N.P. Gillett, K.M. Achuta Rao, R. Barimalala, M. Barreiro Parrillo, N. Bellouin, C. Cassou, P.J. Durack, Y. Kosaka, S. McGregor, S. Min, O. Morgenstern, and Y. Sun, 2021: Human Influence on the Climate System. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Conors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 423–552. https://doi.org/10.1017/97810 09157896.005.

9. Sillu, D., Achal, V. (2024) Carbon dioxide sequestration with carbonic anhydrase nanobiocatalysts: a review. Environ Chem Lett 22, 2213–2239. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10311-024-01755-x

10. Chen, L., Chen, Z., Zhang, Y. et al. (2023) Artificial intelligence-based solutions for climate change: a review. Environ Chem Lett 21, 2525–2557. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10311-023-01617-y

11. Yang, M., Chen, L., Wang, J. et al. (2023) Circular economy strategies for combating climate change and other environmental issues. Environ Chem Lett 21, 55–80. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10311-022-01499-6

12. Gates, B. (2021) How to avoid a climate disaster: The solutions we have and the breakthroughs we need. Alfred A. Knopf, New York, 257p. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13760

13. Mann, M. (2023) Our fragile moment: How lessons for the earth's past can help us survive the climate crisis. Public Affairs, New York, 306p. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12115-024-01027-y