# Bridging the Gap between Policy and Net-Zero Realization in Indonesia: An Outlook of Available Approaches

Harun Ardiansyah, Elisa Wahyuni, Putty Ekadewi

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Harun Ardiansyah, Elisa Wahyuni, Putty Ekadewi. Bridging the Gap between Policy and Net-Zero Realization in Indonesia: An Outlook of Available Approaches. Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 2024, 2828 (1), pp.012003. 10.1088/1742-6596/2828/1/012003. hal-05151076

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# Bridging the Gap between Policy and Net-Zero Realization in Indonesia: An Outlook of Available Approaches

To cite this article: Harun Ardiansyah et al 2024 J. Phys.: Conf. Ser. 2828 012003

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# Bridging the Gap between Policy and Net-Zero Realization in Indonesia: An Outlook of Available Approaches

Harun Ardiansyah<fnref n="1" />*, Elisa Wahyuni<fnref n="2" />, Putty Ekadewi<fnref n="3" />

* E-mail: [haruna2@illinois.edu](mailto:haruna2@illinois.edu)

**Abstract.** Indonesia has been ambitious with its efforts to tackle climate change and achieve net zero carbon emission. This is reflected by the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) that has been defined by the Government and presented during the Copenhagen Accord, Paris Agreement, and Glasgow Climate Pact. In realization, Indonesia has also pledged to achieve net-zero carbon emission by 2060, especially in the energy sector. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR/KESDM) of Indonesia has published its plan to achieve said targets through diversification and intensification of new and renewable energy resources. New and renewable energy bill is also currently being discussed in Indonesia's House of Representative (DPR-RI). However, the reality is that the country is facing several challenges in meeting its targets, and the plans and targets set by the government in the energy sector are not being achieved. In this paper, we analyze the factors that have hindered the implementation of Indonesia's energy transition plan and suggest potential solutions for filling the gaps. To achieve the NDC, we suggest that Indonesia must identify new resources and intensify the use of existing resources. Additionally, the paper provides recommendations on energy market policy that can help to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy. This paper would provide a future outlook on Indonesia's energy policy and energy market. By adopting new energy technologies, increasing investment in renewable energy, and developing policies that support the transition to a low-carbon economy. Our analysis highlights the importance of addressing the challenges faced by Indonesia's energy sector and the need for a comprehensive strategy that takes into account the complex interplay of factors that affect the energy transition process.

## 1. Introduction

Indonesia has recently updated its commitment to achieve net-zero carbon emission by 2060. This has come a long way since the country first took the stage to contribute to reducing carbon emission. Indonesia has been involved since the Copenhagen Accord back in 2009, which is the outcome of the 15th Conference of Parties (COP). In this accord, Indonesia, through the National Council on Climate Change, has pledged to reduce carbon emission by about 26% to 41% by 2020 [1]. The National Council on Climate Change has

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Content from this work may be used under the terms of the [Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.

<footnote n="1">¹ University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801, USA</footnote>

<footnote n="2">² Technische Universität München, Arcisstraße 21, 80333 München, Germany</footnote>

<footnote n="3">³ Nantes Université, 37 Bd de l'Université, Saint-Nazaire, 44600, France</footnote>
concluded that this target could be achieved by focusing on the seven major areas to reduce carbon emission. They are peatland, forestry, agriculture, energy, industry, transportation, and waste.

One of the primary focus of Indonesia's NDC is on the energy sector, which is responsible for a significant portion of the country's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Indonesia will then continue to pledge on reducing carbon emission in the Paris Agreement, which is part of the global agreement adopted by the Paris Climate Conference (COP21). Unlike the Copenhagen Accord, the Paris Agreement actually has a legally binding standpoint. This is reflected in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) of Indonesia. Five years later, in the COP26, all countries – including Indonesia – agreed to keep the 1.5 degrees Celsius target to tackle climate change. It also recognizes the significance of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This is reflected in the Glasgow Climate Pact. In the context of Indonesia, the Government of Indonesia has pledged to reduce carbon emissions and prepared a long-term strategy to achieve low carbon emissions by 2050. This includes some highly ambitious targets such as utilizing new and renewable energy (NRE) for 23% by 2025 and 31% by 2050, reducing dependence on fossil fuels (oil and gas) [2].

Though it is ambitious, this shows Indonesia's potential on NRE. One of the key obstacles is the country's heavy reliance on fossil fuels, particularly coal, which accounts for around 60% of the country's energy mix [3]. The country's coal consumption has been increasing rapidly over the past decade, driven by the growth of the electricity sector and industrial development. This has made it difficult to transition to a more sustainable energy system, particularly in the short term.

Another challenge is the lack of investment in renewable energy and energy efficiency. While Indonesia has made progress in developing its renewable energy sector, investment levels remain relatively low, particularly when compared to other countries in the region. The government has implemented policies to incentivize investment, such as feed-in tariffs and tax incentives, but these have not been sufficient to attract significant private investment [4].

In the next section, the paper will discuss many potential replacements of oil and gas which has been the base load of Indonesia's energy sector since its independence. This paper would discuss Indonesia's outlook on energy policy and energy market, and also suggest some improvements on Indonesia's energy transition targets based on the currently available and potentially future resources.

## 2. Methodology

The first part of the research will focus on literature reviews and assessment of net-zero emission targets by the Government of Indonesia based on publicly available information such as laws, bills, government regulations, press releases, etc. Secondly, several renewable energy sources will be discussed as potential resources to replace oil and gas in Indonesia's future energy mix. The paper utilizes indicators previously set by IRENA (2014) as a method to evaluate various types of renewable energy and its potential for deployment in Indonesia. We assigned values to each NRE sources and ranked them based on order of feasibility to be employed according to the following metrics:

### 2.1. Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE)

The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is presented as USD¢ (0.01$) per kWh of electricity generated. The data was obtained from a readily available toolkit [5]. Here, the default parameter was used for each type of energy source (IESR, 2023) and presented in Table 1 below. Across technology averages are presented for energy sources with distinctly different technologies or modes of utilization. We use coal as the baseline to compare alternative energy sources for electricity generation as it is the case of current power generation in Indonesia's energy mix. This data is country-specific for Indonesia, so the parameters used here may not be applicable to countries with significantly differing socioeconomic and geographical demographics.
<table><caption>**Table 1.** Technical parameters used in LCOE calculation (source: [5])</caption><thead><tr><th>Power Generation Technology</th><th>Investment cost (US$/kW)</th><th>Technical lifetime (years)</th><th>Capacity factor (%)</th><th>Fuel efficiency (%)</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Coal*</td><td>1400-1650</td><td>30</td><td>70</td><td>34-37</td></tr><tr><td>Wind*</td><td>1500-3500</td><td>27</td><td>34-48</td><td>-</td></tr><tr><td>Geothermal*</td><td>4000-5000</td><td>30</td><td>80</td><td>10-15</td></tr><tr><td>Solar*</td><td>790-1320</td><td>35</td><td>18-19</td><td>-</td></tr><tr><td>Hydropower*</td><td>2080-2700</td><td>50</td><td>36-76</td><td>70</td></tr><tr><td>Nuclear</td><td>4300</td><td>60</td><td>85</td><td>36</td></tr><tr><td>Biomass</td><td>2000</td><td>25</td><td>90</td><td>31</td></tr></tbody></table>

## 2.2. Lifecycle CO₂ emissions

Lifecycle equivalent CO₂ emissions, presented as gCO₂-eq/kWh, are intended to compare energy sources used for electricity generation from the environmental perspectives in an equal manner in terms of equivalent amount of carbon emitted. Using lifecycle as an indicator provides a thorough assessment by the inclusion of infrastructure and supply chain emissions, methane emissions, biogenic CO₂ emissions, and albedo effect into the equation in addition to direct emissions. As a result, this indicator helps avoid bias that may present itself when only direct emissions are considered, although direct emissions often comprise most of the lifecycle CO₂ emissions. Considering only direct emissions, biomass is often regarded as carbon-neutral since it also grows on environmental CO₂, but this neutrality disappears in the face of lifecycle CO₂ emissions. The data displayed here are obtained from the IPCC [6].

## 2.3. Installed Capacity (IC)

Installed capacity is the maximum (electrical) power that could be maintained continuously throughout a prolonged period of operation under reference ambient conditions. Installed capacity is expressed in MW(e). This measurement is used to obtain some information regarding the capability of an electricity source to generate maximum theoretical power. This serves as the upper bound of the electricity generation [7].

## 2.4. Electricity Generated (EG)

Electricity generated is the amount of electricity generated by the power sources in the unit of MW(e). Electricity generated captures the operational performance of the power sources as it would only reflect on the amount of electricity generated during the operation of the power sources.

## 2.5. Deployment Readiness

Deployment readiness focuses on the technical readiness for the country to deploy the technology. This includes the availability of fuel sources, manufacturing capabilities, and human resources to deploy the technology. The technology will be assessed by the maturity of the technology based on some peer-reviewed assessments.

## 2.6. Policy Readiness (Institutional Feasibility)

Policy readiness looks at the feasibility of the deployment of an energy source based on the policy that has been ratified in the countries. It refers to the extent to which a policy or policy instrument is seen as

<footnote>*Across technology</footnote>
legitimate, able to gain acceptance and able to be adopted and implemented [8]. This paper will focus on
the readiness of deployment based on the existing policy in Indonesia.

**3. Results and Discussion**

3.1. *Overview on Indonesia's Energy Mix*

Indonesia has been ambitiously pursuing the deployment of new and renewable energy, even though the numbers show the target moving not as progressively as the Government initially thought. In 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic, Indonesia's primary electricity is supplied by fossil fuels. That includes coal, oil, and gas. Renewable energy only accounted for approximately 8% of the overall electricity supply mix [3].

Since then, Indonesia has been trying to rapidly deploy new and renewable energy source in Indonesia to achieve its renewable energy mix targets [4]. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has slowed down the process of deployment. In the third quarter of 2021, renewable energy only accounted for 11.2% of total Indonesia’s energy mix [9]. This is far below Indonesia’s own targets. From the 11.2% of renewable energy, biofuel is the largest contributor of renewable energy mix. As the COVID-19 becoming an endemic, it is expected that renewable energy deployment will rapidly increase are more interest coming in from multi-state partnership such as Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) as the result of G20 Indonesia [10] and more projects from PT. PLN Indonesia [11].

<figure><img src="image_5.png" /><figcaption>**Figure 1.** Indonesia's energy mix by Q3 of 2021 (source: [9])</figcaption></figure>

3.2. *Targets of Indonesia's Net-Zero Plan and Its Concerns*

Indonesia targeted in their updated version of NDC for COP26 to reduce carbon emissions and prepared a long-term strategy (LTS) that defines the pathways to achieve low carbon emissions by 2050. In the energy sector, Indonesia has pledged to increase the use of new and renewable energy by at least 23% of total energy mix in 2025 and at least 31% of total energy mix in 2050; reduce the use of oil for energy mix less than 25% in 2025 and less than 20% in 2050; reduce the use of coal for energy mix by minimum 30% in 2025 and minimum 25% in 2050; and reduce the use of gas for energy mix by minimum 22% in 2025 and minimum 24% in 2050. The country was set to reduce 26% of GHG emission by 2020 and 41% by 2030 [4].

All these targets and ambitions are challenged by the reality of balancing the transition and securing the energy sector in the country. In pre-COVID-19 situation in 2019, more than 90% of Indonesia’s primary
energy demands are supplied from fossil fuels. Renewable energy only accounts for approximately 8% of the total energy supply mix [3]. Figure 2 depicted how energy activity plunged drastically in the beginning of COVID situation. However, it is predicted that the increase drastically increased afterwards in which the government needs to be prepared to meet the demands.

<figure><img src="image_6.png" /><figcaption>**Figure 2.** Primary Energy Supply (Q3 2021) and Final Energy Demand (Q3 2021) (source: [9])</figcaption></figure>

### 3.3. Assessment on Renewable Energy Sources for Net-Zero Energy Transition Plan

In this section, the renewable energy options for power generation are assessed to outline the possibility of each of these technologies to help in achieving Indonesia's net zero carbon emission. The following criteria are used for the assessment: efficiency, effectiveness, institutional feasibility, and equity. These criteria were previously described by the International Renewable Energy Agency as a tool to compare different types of renewable energy for deployment [12]. The summary of each NRE source is presented in Table 2 and Table 3 below.

Coal is the primary energy mix in Indonesia's current electricity generation ecosystem hence its use as baseline in this assessment [3]. In the near term, the country is currently pushing for other NREs like hydropower and biomass to increase the portion of NRE in its energy mix. In terms of LCOE, hydropower presented the best value across all technologies, averaging 5.67 USD¢/kWh compared to coal as a baseline that averages out at 6.04 USD¢/kWh, followed by biomass (6.39 USD¢/kWh), which has received a lot of attention from the past decades from the Government. Decades of aggressive policy approaches to incorporate biofuel in the transportation sector have managed to place biomass as the main NRE technology utilized in Indonesia. This is further solidified by the strength of the country as a major palm oil producer in the world, which leads to the country possessing around threefold the global average of biomass potential [13]. In a similar manner, Indonesia should also be able to target geothermal for power generation since the country possess around 40% of the world's geothermal reserves placing the country at number one in the world for geothermal power potential at 23.9 GW [14]. An across technology LCOE evaluation of geothermal in Indonesia (7.66 USD¢/kWh) showed that it is highly competitive to solar (7.77 USD¢/kWh). Additionally, the country benefits from the abundance of both geothermal and solar potentials. Deployment of geothermal would be exclusively on-grid while solar is advantageous in terms of flexibility, allowing for off-grid installations at a lower initial investment cost. This strategy would suit remote, isolated regions better considering the vast regional span and nature of the archipelago.

Surprisingly, electricity generated from nuclear power would cost Indonesia the most at 10.16 USD¢/kWh, a stark contrast to countries with developed nuclear power ecosystems where the LCOEs are much lower. This further strengthens the point that large investments are needed to free Indonesia from its dependence on existing coal technologies. In late 2022, during the country's presidency of the G20 summit in Bali, the Government has unveiled a plan on an initial funding of 20 billion USD over the next 3-5 years
to finance the energy transition through a JETP scheme, with 2050 as the target year of achieving net-zero emissions in the power sector [15]. This announcement came as a breath of fresh air to finance the development of NREs looking at the Government's main spending in the energy sector, which was heavily dominated by subsidies amounting to 57 billion USD over the 2021-2023 period [16]. This is more than tenfold the planned budget for the development of NREs and energy access at only 5.63 billion USD in 2023 [16].

The second most important criterion to achieve net-zero was the lifetime or lifecycle CO₂ emissions from the energy sector. In this case, all the proposed NRE technologies discussed here proved superior to coal as baseline at 820 gCO₂-eq/kWh. Therefore, from the environmental perspectives moving from coal to any of these NRE technologies would help Indonesia reduce its carbon emissions although the range is wide. The use of a dedicated biomass power plant emits higher amount of lifecycle carbon emissions (230 gCO₂-eq/kWh) compared to the other NRE technologies. In co-firing plants, carbon emissions are only slightly reduced from baseline (740 gCO₂-eq/kWh) since this technology still involve coal.

At a glance, nuclear has the lowest number of carbon emissions (12 gCO₂-eq/kWh). However, the high investment costs associated with nuclear technology would require the country to make a larger space in the energy budget to finance this transition, which may be too difficult to implement soon despite the JETP. As a result, deployment of nuclear power in Indonesia is often envisaged to start by year 2045, as planned by the MEMR [2]. Although some projections from the Indonesia's National Energy Council mentioned the deployment of Indonesia's first nuclear power as early as 2038. On the other hand, the technology for wind power is lower in cost and provides a competitive value to nuclear in terms of carbon emissions but low in potential for Indonesia due the country's geographical characteristics. In consequence, solar power is a popular choice for deployment in Indonesia thanks to the high resource potential [13], carbon emissions (41-48 gCO₂-eq/kWh), and competitive LCOE as discussed previously.

In 2019, just before the Covid-19 pandemic, Indonesia emitted most of its carbon from the electricity and heat generation at around 200 Mt-CO₂ contributing to an overall > 600 Mt-CO₂ emissions [13]. At around only 17% in 2020, much lower than future target of 31% in 2050, the use of NREs in electricity generation have helped the country avoided around 50 Mt-CO₂ emissions [13]. It is worth noting that biomass played a significant role in the NRE contribution, we can assume then that a progressive yet aggressive increase in much lower carbon NREs in the energy mix would push the difference even further and help the country achieve its emissions target of 0.54 GtCO₂-eq in 2050 [17].

<table><caption>**Table 2.** Comparison of renewable energy and coal for electricity generation (efficiency and effectiveness)</caption><thead><tr><th rowspan="2">Energy Types</th><th colspan="2">LCOE</th><th colspan="2">Lifecycle Carbon Footprint</th><th colspan="2">Effectiveness</th></tr><tr><th>Value (USD¢/kWh) [5]</th><th>Rank*</th><th>Value (gCO₂-eq/kWh) [6]</th><th>Rank</th><th>IC (GW) - 2020</th><th>EG (TWh) - 2020</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Coal</td><td>subcritical: 6.41<br>supercritical: 5.68<br>average: 6.04*</td><td>Baseline</td><td>820</td><td>Baseline</td><td>40.10</td><td>180.87</td></tr><tr><td>Wind</td><td>onshore: 7.47<br>offshore: 11.31<br>average: 9.39*</td><td>5</td><td>onshore: 11<br>offshore: 12</td><td>1</td><td>0.20</td><td>0.48</td></tr><tr><td>Geothermal</td><td>large: 6.79<br>small: 8.53<br>average: 7.66*</td><td>3</td><td>38</td><td>4</td><td>2.10</td><td>15.56</td></tr><tr><td>Solar</td><td>rooftop: 9.76<br>utility: 5.79</td><td>4</td><td>rooftop: 41<br>utility: 48</td><td>5</td><td>0.20</td><td>0.18</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table><thead><tr><th rowspan="2">Energy Types</th><th colspan="2">LCOE</th><th colspan="2">Lifecycle Carbon Footprint</th><th colspan="2">Effectiveness</th></tr><tr><th>Value (USD¢/kWh) [5]</th><th>Rank*</th><th>Value (gCO₂-eq/kWh) [6]</th><th>Rank</th><th>IC (GW) - 2020</th><th>EG (TWh) - 2020</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Hydropower</td><td>average: 7.77*<br>large: 7.91<br>medium: 4.15<br>mini/micro: 4.94<br>average: 5.67*</td><td>1</td><td>24</td><td>3</td><td>6.10</td><td>24.43</td></tr><tr><td>Nuclear</td><td>10.16</td><td>6</td><td>12</td><td>2</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr><tr><td>Biomass</td><td>6.39</td><td>2</td><td>cofiring: 740<br>dedicated: 230</td><td>6</td><td>1.90*</td><td>13.82*</td></tr></tbody></table>

*across all technology

<table><caption>**Table 3.** Comparison of renewable energy and coal for electricity generation (deployment readiness, policy readiness)</caption><thead><tr><th rowspan="2">Energy Types</th><th colspan="2">Deployment readiness</th><th colspan="2">Policy readiness</th></tr><tr><th>Assessment</th><th>Rank</th><th>Assessment</th><th>Rank</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Coal</td><td>Mature technology</td><td>Baseline</td><td>Established policies and organizational structures.</td><td>Baseline</td></tr><tr><td>Wind</td><td>Resources effectiveness are based on altitude and location [4]</td><td>3</td><td>Multiple executive orders published to ensure deployments. NRE bill to be ratified [11]</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>Geothermal</td><td>Specific sites have richer resources than others. Indonesia still needs improvement on drilling technologies [4]</td><td>3</td><td>Need to ensure industrial readiness from state-owned companies before policy enactment [4]</td><td>5</td></tr><tr><td>Solar</td><td>Easy to access, rapid deployment [18]</td><td>1</td><td>Multiple executive orders published to ensure deployments. NRE bill to be ratified [11]</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>Hydropower</td><td>Available in most places. Deployment planned for future projects [11]</td><td>2</td><td>Policy established for project deployment [11]</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Nuclear</td><td>Far from starting point [4]</td><td>5</td><td>Political willingness is the main blockage of bills regarding nuclear at the moment [4]</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td>Biomass</td><td>Low technology availability [4]</td><td>4</td><td>Need to ensure industrial readiness from state-owned companies before policy enactment [4]</td><td>4</td></tr></tbody></table>

In terms of technology and policy readiness, solar, wind, and hydropower will be feasible for short term massive deployment. This is supported by the policies that has been, and about to be, ratified by the Government of Indonesia. In the long run, more efficient source of energy such as nuclear power and geothermal energy need to be pushed forward. At this time, nuclear energy lacks political will from the Government. Attention to build the first nuclear power in Indonesia has been declared by National Energy
Council by preparing the Nuclear Energy Program Implementation Organization (NEPIO) [19]. Geothermal energy, in the long run, will help as the baseload of Indonesia’s energy mix. However, in the current state, exploration on geothermal energy has been limited. More resources are necessary to build the geothermal energy industry [4].

**4. Conclusion**

As the COVID-19 becoming an endemic, Indonesia should have the momentum to lead the world in mitigation to climate change, especially in the energy sector. With various resources that Indonesia has, Indonesia has the capability to envision short- and long-term solution of climate change.

Technologically, solar, wind, and hydropower could be deployed in a massive scale and in a short amount of time. However, long term solution such as nuclear power and geothermal would lead to security and energy independence. On the other hand, policy readiness should be a priority for Indonesia. Ratifying deployment-friendly regulations would lead to increase of installed capacity and electricity generated.

**5. Acknowledgements**

The Authors would like to thank Overseas Indonesian Students' Association Alliances (PPI Dunia) for the opportunity to write a book entitled "Strategy towards Net-Zero Emissions by 2060 from the Renewables and Carbon-Neutral Energy Perspectives" which has been the main inspiration for this paper.

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