79. Roos CI, Swetnam TW, Ferguson TJ, Liebmann MJ, Loehman RA, et al. 2021. Native American fire management at an ancient wildland-urban interface in the Southwest United States. *PNAS* 118:e2018733118

80. Fusco EJ, Balch JK, Mahood AL, Nagy RC, Syphard AD, Bradley BA. 2022. The human-grass-fire cycle: how people and invasives co-occur to drive fire regimes. *Front. Ecol. Environ.* 20:117-26

81. Johnson CN, Prior LD, Archibald S, Poulos HM, Barton AM, et al. 2018. Can trophic rewilding reduce the impact of fire in a more flammable world? *Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B* 373:20170443

82. Hayward MW, Ward-Fear G, L'Hotellier F, Herman K, Kabat AP, Gibbons JP. 2016. Could biodiversity loss have increased Australia's bushfire threat? *Anim. Conserv.* 19:490-97

83. Rouet-Leduc J, Pe'er G, Moreira F, Bonn A, Helmer W, et al. 2021. Effects of large herbivores on fire regimes and wildfire mitigation. *J. Appl. Ecol.* 58:2690-702

84. Feng X, Merow C, Liu Z, Park DS, Roehrdanz PR, et al. 2021. How deregulation, drought and increasing fire impact Amazonian biodiversity. *Nature* 597:516-21

85. Mariani M, Connor SE, Theuerkauf M, Herbert A, Kuneš P, et al. 2022. Disruption of cultural burning promotes shrub encroachment and unprecedented wildfires. *Front. Ecol. Environ.* 20:292-300

86. Mistry J, Bilbao BA, Berardi A. 2016. Community owned solutions for fire management in tropical ecosystems: case studies from Indigenous communities of South America. *Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B* 371:20150174

87. Peterson DA, Fromm MD, McRae RHD, Campbell JR, Hyer EJ, et al. 2021. Australia's Black Summer pyrocumulonimbus super outbreak reveals potential for increasingly extreme stratospheric smoke events. *mpj Clim. Atmos. Sci.* 4:38

88. Puig-Gironès R, Brotons L, Pons P. 2022. Aridity, fire severity and proximity of populations affect the temporal responses of open-habitat birds to wildfires. *Biol. Conserv.* 272:109661

89. Pellegrini AFA, Ahlström A, Hobbie SE, Reich PB, Nieradzik LP, et al. 2018. Fire frequency drives decadal changes in soil carbon and nitrogen and ecosystem productivity. *Nature* 553:194-98

90. Stephens SL, Thompson S, Boisramé G, Collins BM, Ponisio LC, et al. 2021. Fire, water, and biodiversity in the Sierra Nevada: a possible triple win. *Environ. Res. Commun.* 3:081004

91. van Wees D, van der Werf GR, Randerson JT, Rogers BM, Chen Y, et al. 2022. Global biomass burning fuel consumption and emissions at 500-m spatial resolution based on the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED), *Geosci. Model. Dev. Discuss.* 15:8411-37

92. Walker XJ, Baltzer JL, Cumming SG, Day NJ, Ebert C, et al. 2019. Increasing wildfires threaten historic carbon sink of boreal forest soils. *Nature* 572:520-23

93. Abram NJ, Henley BJ, Gupta AS, Lippmann TJR, Clarke H, et al. 2021. Connections of climate change and variability to large and extreme forest fires in southeast Australia. *Commun. Earth Environ.* 2:8

94. Hirsch E, Koren I. 2021. Record-breaking aerosol levels explained by smoke injection into the stratosphere. *Science* 371:1269-74

95. Shiraishi T, Hirata R. 2021. Estimation of carbon dioxide emissions from the megafires of Australia in 2019-2020. *Sci. Rep.* 11:8267

96. Kablick GP III, Allen DR, Fromm MD, Nedoluha GE. 2020. Australian PyroCb smoke generates synoptic-scale stratospheric anticyclones. *Geophys. Res. Lett.* 47:e2020GL088101

97. di Virgilio G, Evans JP, Blake SAP, Armstrong M, Dowdy AJ, et al. 2019. Climate change increases the potential for extreme wildfires. *Geophys. Res. Lett.* 46:8517-26

98. Johnston FH, Borchers-Arriagada N, Morgan GG, Jalaludin B, Palmer AJ, et al. 2021. Unprecedented health costs of smoke-related PM2.5 from the 2019-20 Australian megafires. *Nat. Sustain.* 4:42-47

99. Santos JL, Hradsky BA, Keith DA, Rowe KC, Senior KL, et al. 2022. Beyond inappropriate fire regimes: a synthesis of fire-driven declines of threatened mammals in Australia. *Conserv. Lett.* 15:e12905

100. Fairman TA, Nitschke CR, Bennett LT. 2016. Too much, too soon? A review of the impacts of increasing wildfire frequency on tree demography and structure in temperate forests. *Int. J. Wildland Fire* 25:831-48

101. Lindenmayer DB, Bowd EJ, Gibbons P. 2022. Forest restoration in a time of fire: perspectives from tall, wet eucalypt forests subject to stand-replacing wildfires. *Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B* 378:20210082

102. Turner MG, Braziunas KH, Hansen WD, Harvey BJ. 2019. Short-interval severe fire erodes the resilience of subalpine lodgepole pine forests. *PNAS* 166:11319-28
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104. Syphard AD, Brennan TJ, Rustigian-Romsos H, Keeley JE. 2022. Fire-driven vegetation type conversion in Southern California. *Ecol. Appl.* 32:e2626

105. Reich PB, Peterson DW, Wedin DA, Wrage K. 2001. Fire and vegetation effects on productivity and nitrogen cycling across a forest-grassland continuum. *Ecology* 82:1703-19

106. Pressler Y, Moore JC, Cotrufo MF. 2019. Belowground community responses to fire: meta-analysis reveals contrasting responses of soil microorganisms and mesofauna. *Oikos* 128:309-27

107. Lopes AR, Girona-García A, Corticeiro S, Martins R, Keizer JJ, Vieira DCS. 2021. What is wrong with post-fire soil erosion modelling? A meta-analysis on current approaches, research gaps, and future directions. *Earth Surf. Process Landf.* 46:205-19

108. Debano LF. 2000. The role of fire and soil heating on water repellency in wildland environments: a review. *J. Hydrol.* 231:195-206

109. Roces-Díaz JV, Santín C, Martínez-Vilalta J, Doerr SH. 2022. A global synthesis of fire effects on ecosystem services of forests and woodlands. *Front. Ecol. Environ.* 20:170-78

110. Tedim F, Leone V, Amraoui M, Bouillon C, Coughlan MR, et al. 2018. Defining extreme wildfire events: difficulties, challenges, and impacts. *Fire* 1:9

111. Kean JW, Staley DM. 2021. Forecasting the frequency and magnitude of postfire debris flows across southern California. *Earth's Future* 9:e2020EF001735

112. Robinne FN, Hallema DW, Bladon KD, Flannigan MD, Boisramé G, et al. 2021. Scientists' warning on extreme wildfire risks to water supply. *Hydrol. Process.* 35:e14086

113. Alizadeh MR, Abatzoglou JT, Luce CH, Adamowski JF, Farid A, Sadegh M. 2021. Warming enabled upslope advance in western US forest fires. *PNAS* 118:e2009717118

114. Kampf SK, Mcgrath D, Sears MG, Fassnacht SR, Kiewiet L, Hammond JC. 2022. Increasing wildfire impacts on snowpack in the western U.S. *PNAS* 119:e2200333119

115. Williams AP, Livneh B, McKinnon KA, Hansen WD, Mankin JS, et al. 2022. Growing impact of wildfire on western US water supply. *PNAS* 119:e2114069119

116. Tang W, Llort J, Weis J, Perron MMG, Basart S, et al. 2021. Widespread phytoplankton blooms triggered by 2019-2020 Australian wildfires. *Nature* 597:370-75

117. Zou Y, Rasch PJ, Wang H, Xie Z, Zhang R. 2021. Increasing large wildfires over the western United States linked to diminishing sea ice in the Arctic. *Nat. Commun.* 12:6048

118. Jones MW, Coppola AI, Santín C, Dittmar T, Jaffé R, et al. 2020. Fires prime terrestrial organic carbon for riverine export to the global oceans. *Nat. Commun.* 11:2791

119. Bennett EM, Solan M, Biggs R, McPhearson T, Norström AV, et al. 2016. Bright spots: seeds of a good Anthropocene. *Front. Ecol. Environ.* 14:441-48

120. Boivin N, Crowther A. 2021. Mobilizing the past to shape a better Anthropocene. *Nat. Ecol. Evol.* 5:273-84

121. Daeli W, Carmenta R, Monroe MC, Adams AE, Monroe MC, Adams AE. 2021. Where policy and culture collide: perceptions and responses of Swidden farmers to the burn ban in West Kalimantan, Indonesia. *Hum. Ecol.* 49:159-70

122. Long JW, Lake FK, Goode RW. 2021. The importance of Indigenous cultural burning in forested regions of the Pacific West, USA. *For. Ecol. Manag.* 500:119597

123. Bliege Bird R, Bird DW. 2021. Climate, landscape diversity, and food sovereignty in arid Australia: the firestick farming hypothesis. *Am. J. Hum. Biol.* 33:e23527

124. Regos A, Hermoso V, Amen MD, Guisan A, Brotons L. 2018. Trade-offs and synergies between bird conservation and wildfire suppression in the face of global change. *J. Appl. Ecol.* 55:2181-92

125. Smith AMS, Kolden CA, Paveglio TB, Cochrane MA, Bowman DMJS, et al. 2016. The science of firescapes: achieving fire-resilient communities. *Bioscience* 66:130-46

126. Masri S, Scaduto E, Jin Y, Wu J. 2021. Disproportionate impacts of wildfires among elderly and low-income communities in California from 2000-2020. *Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health* 18:3921

127. Cui X, Alam MA, Perry GL, Paterson AM, Wyse SV, Curran TJ. 2019. Green firebreaks as a management tool for wildfires: lessons from China. *J. Environ. Manag.* 233:329-36
103. Baltzer JL, Day NJ, Walker XJ, Greene D, Mack MC, et al. 2021. Increasing fire and the decline of fire adapted black spruce in the boreal forest. *PNAS* 118:e2024872118

104. Syphard AD, Brennan TJ, Rustigian-Romsos H, Keeley JE. 2022. Fire-driven vegetation type conversion in Southern California. *Ecol. Appl.* 32:e2626

105. Reich PB, Peterson DW, Wedin DA, Wrage K. 2001. Fire and vegetation effects on productivity and nitrogen cycling across a forest-grassland continuum. *Ecology* 82:1703-19

106. Pressler Y, Moore JC, Cotrufo MF. 2019. Belowground community responses to fire: meta-analysis reveals contrasting responses of soil microorganisms and mesofauna. *Oikos* 128:309-27

107. Lopes AR, Girona-García A, Corticeiro S, Martins R, Keizer JJ, Vieira DCS. 2021. What is wrong with post-fire soil erosion modelling? A meta-analysis on current approaches, research gaps, and future directions. *Earth Surf. Process Landf.* 46:205-19

108. Debano LF. 2000. The role of fire and soil heating on water repellency in wildland environments: a review. *J. Hydrol.* 231:195-206

109. Roces-Díaz JV, Santín C, Martínez-Vilalta J, Doerr SH. 2022. A global synthesis of fire effects on ecosystem services of forests and woodlands. *Front. Ecol. Environ.* 20:170-78

110. Tedim F, Leone V, Amraoui M, Bouillon C, Coughlan MR, et al. 2018. Defining extreme wildfire events: difficulties, challenges, and impacts. *Fire* 1:9

111. Kean JW, Staley DM. 2021. Forecasting the frequency and magnitude of postfire debris flows across southern California. *Earth's Future* 9:e2020EF001735

112. Robinne FN, Hallema DW, Bladon KD, Flannigan MD, Boisramé G, et al. 2021. Scientists' warning on extreme wildfire risks to water supply. *Hydrol. Process.* 35:e14086

113. Alizadeh MR, Abatzoglou JT, Luce CH, Adamowski JF, Farid A, Sadegh M. 2021. Warming enabled upslope advance in western US forest fires. *PNAS* 118:e2009717118

114. Kampf SK, Mcgrath D, Sears MG, Fassnacht SR, Kiewiet L, Hammond JC. 2022. Increasing wildfire impacts on snowpack in the western U.S. *PNAS* 119:e2200333119

115. Williams AP, Livneh B, McKinnon KA, Hansen WD, Mankin JS, et al. 2022. Growing impact of wildfire on western US water supply. *PNAS* 119:e2114069119

116. Tang W, Llort J, Weis J, Perron MMG, Basart S, et al. 2021. Widespread phytoplankton blooms triggered by 2019-2020 Australian wildfires. *Nature* 597:370-75

117. Zou Y, Rasch PJ, Wang H, Xie Z, Zhang R. 2021. Increasing large wildfires over the western United States linked to diminishing sea ice in the Arctic. *Nat. Commun.* 12:6048

118. Jones MW, Coppola AI, Santín C, Dittmar T, Jaffé R, et al. 2020. Fires prime terrestrial organic carbon for riverine export to the global oceans. *Nat. Commun.* 11:2791

119. Bennett EM, Solan M, Biggs R, McPhearson T, Norström AV, et al. 2016. Bright spots: seeds of a good Anthropocene. *Front. Ecol. Environ.* 14:441-48

120. Boivin N, Crowther A. 2021. Mobilizing the past to shape a better Anthropocene. *Nat. Ecol. Evol.* 5:273-84

121. Daeli W, Carmenta R, Monroe MC, Adams AE, Monroe MC, Adams AE. 2021. Where policy and culture collide: perceptions and responses of Swidden farmers to the burn ban in West Kalimantan, Indonesia. *Hum. Ecol.* 49:159-70

122. Long JW, Lake FK, Goode RW. 2021. The importance of Indigenous cultural burning in forested regions of the Pacific West, USA. *For. Ecol. Manag.* 500:119597

123. Bliege Bird R, Bird DW. 2021. Climate, landscape diversity, and food sovereignty in arid Australia: the firestick farming hypothesis. *Am. J. Hum. Biol.* 33:e23527

124. Regos A, Hermoso V, Amen MD, Guisan A, Brotons L. 2018. Trade-offs and synergies between bird conservation and wildfire suppression in the face of global change. *J. Appl. Ecol.* 55:2181-92

125. Smith AMS, Kolden CA, Paveglio TB, Cochrane MA, Bowman DMJS, et al. 2016. The science of firescapes: achieving fire-resilient communities. *Bioscience* 66:130-46

126. Masri S, Scaduto E, Jin Y, Wu J. 2021. Disproportionate impacts of wildfires among elderly and low-income communities in California from 2000-2020. *Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health* 18:3921

127. Cui X, Alam MA, Perry GL, Paterson AM, Wyse SV, Curran TJ. 2019. Green firebreaks as a management tool for wildfires: lessons from China. *J. Environ. Manag.* 233:329-36
128. Pellegrini AFA, Harden J, Georgiou K, Hemes KS, Malhotra A, et al. 2022. Fire effects on the persistence of soil organic matter and long-term carbon storage. *Nat. Geosci.* 15:5–13

129. Kelly LT, Brotons L. 2017. Using fire to promote biodiversity. *Science* 355:1264–65

130. Tebbutt CA, Devisscher T, Obando-Cabrera L, Gutiérrez García GA, Meza Elizalde MC, et al. 2021. Participatory mapping reveals socioeconomic drivers of forest fires in protected areas of the post-conflict Colombian Amazon. *People Nat.* 3:811–26

131. Senior KL, Giljohann KM, McCarthy MA, Kelly LT. 2022. A field test of mechanisms underpinning animal diversity in recently burned landscapes. *J. Appl. Ecol.* 60:146–57

132. Beale CM, Mustaphi CJC, Morrison TA, Archibald S, Anderson TM, et al. 2018. Pyrodiversity interacts with rainfall to increase bird and mammal richness in African savannas. *Ecol. Lett.* 21:557–67

133. Pellegrini AFA, Franco AC, Hoffmann WA. 2016. Shifts in functional traits elevate risk of fire-driven tree dieback in tropical savanna and forest biomes. *Glob. Change Biol.* 22:1235–43

134. Castellanos MC, González-Martínez SC, Pausas JG. 2015. Field heritability of a plant adaptation to fire in heterogeneous landscapes. *Mol. Ecol.* 24:5633–42

135. Rainsford FW, Kelly LT, Leonard SWJ, Bennett AF. 2021. Post-fire habitat relationships for birds differ among ecosystems. *Biol. Conserv.* 260:109218

136. Gómez-González S, Torres-Díaz C, Bustos-Schindler C, Gianoli E. 2011. Anthropogenic fire drives the evolution of seed traits. *PNAS* 108:18743–47

137. Pugh BE, Colley M, Dugdale SJ, Edwards P, Flitcroft R, et al. 2022. A possible role for river restoration enhancing biodiversity through interaction with wildfire. *Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr.* 31:1990–2004

138. McWethy DB, Schoennagel T, Higuera PE, Krawchuk M, Harvey BJ, et al. 2019. Rethinking resilience to wildfire. *Nat. Sustain.* 2:797–804

139. Granath G, Moore PA, Lukenbach MC, Waddington JM. 2016. Mitigating wildfire carbon loss in managed northern peatlands through restoration. *Sci. Rep.* 6:28498

140. Bowman DMJS, Williamson GJ, Abatzoglou JT, Kolden CA, Cochrane MA, Smith AMS. 2017. Human exposure and sensitivity to globally extreme wildfire events. *Nat. Ecol. Evol.* 1:58

141. Cochrane MA, Bowman DMJS. 2021. Manage fire regimes, not fires. *Nat. Geosci.* 14:455–57

142. Moreira F, Ascoli D, Safford H, Adams MA, Moreno JM, et al. 2020. Wildfire management in Mediterranean-type regions: paradigm change needed. *Environ. Res. Lett.* 15:011001

143. Borchers-Arriagada N, Bowman DMJS, Price O, Palmer AJ, Samson S, Clarke H. 2021. Smoke health costs and the calculus for wildfires fuel management: a modelling study. *Lancet Planet. Health* 5:e608–19

144. Shuman JK, Balch JK, Barnes RT, Higuera PE, Roos CI, et al. 2022. Reimagine fire science for the Anthropocene. *PNAS* Nexus 1:1–14

145. Harrison SP, Prentice IC, Bloomfield KJ, Dong N, Forkel M, et al. 2021. Understanding and modelling wildfire regimes: an ecological perspective. *Environ. Res. Lett.* 16:125008

146. Gillson L, Biggs H, Smit IPJ, Virah-Sawmy M, Rogers K. 2019. Finding common ground between adaptive management and evidence-based approaches to biodiversity conservation. *Trends Ecol. Evol.* 34:31–44

147. Keane RE, Loehman R. 2020. Historical Range and Variation (HRV). In *Encyclopedia of Wildfires and Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) Fires*, ed. SL Manzello. Cham, Switz.: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-51727-8_255-1

148. Whitlock C, Higuera PE, Mcwethy DB, Briles CE. 2010. Paleoecological perspectives on fire ecology: revisiting the fire-regime concept. *Open Ecol. J.* 3:6–23

149. Jones GM, Tingley MW. 2021. Pyrodiversity and biodiversity: a history, synthesis, and outlook. *Divers. Distrib.* 28:386–403
128. Pellegrini AFA, Harden J, Georgiou K, Hemes KS, Malhotra A, et al. 2022. Fire effects on the persistence of soil organic matter and long-term carbon storage. *Nat. Geosci.* 15:5–13

129. Kelly LT, Brotons L. 2017. Using fire to promote biodiversity. *Science* 355:1264–65

130. Tebbutt CA, Devisscher T, Obando-Cabrera L, Gutiérrez García GA, Meza Elizalde MC, et al. 2021. Participatory mapping reveals socioeconomic drivers of forest fires in protected areas of the post-conflict Colombian Amazon. *People Nat.* 3:811–26

131. Senior KL, Giljohann KM, McCarthy MA, Kelly LT. 2022. A field test of mechanisms underpinning animal diversity in recently burned landscapes. *J. Appl. Ecol.* 60:146–57

132. Beale CM, Mustaphi CJC, Morrison TA, Archibald S, Anderson TM, et al. 2018. Pyrodiversity interacts with rainfall to increase bird and mammal richness in African savannas. *Ecol. Lett.* 21:557–67

133. Pellegrini AFA, Franco AC, Hoffmann WA. 2016. Shifts in functional traits elevate risk of fire-driven tree dieback in tropical savanna and forest biomes. *Glob. Change Biol.* 22:1235–43

134. Castellanos MC, González-Martínez SC, Pausas JG. 2015. Field heritability of a plant adaptation to fire in heterogeneous landscapes. *Mol. Ecol.* 24:5633–42

135. Rainsford FW, Kelly LT, Leonard SWJ, Bennett AF. 2021. Post-fire habitat relationships for birds differ among ecosystems. *Biol. Conserv.* 260:109218

136. Gómez-González S, Torres-Díaz C, Bustos-Schindler C, Gianoli E. 2011. Anthropogenic fire drives the evolution of seed traits. *PNAS* 108:18743–47

137. Pugh BE, Colley M, Dugdale SJ, Edwards P, Flitcroft R, et al. 2022. A possible role for river restoration enhancing biodiversity through interaction with wildfire. *Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr.* 31:1990–2004

138. McWethy DB, Schoennagel T, Higuera PE, Krawchuk M, Harvey BJ, et al. 2019. Rethinking resilience to wildfire. *Nat. Sustain.* 2:797–804

139. Granath G, Moore PA, Lukenbach MC, Waddington JM. 2016. Mitigating wildfire carbon loss in managed northern peatlands through restoration. *Sci. Rep.* 6:28498

140. Bowman DMJS, Williamson GJ, Abatzoglou JT, Kolden CA, Cochrane MA, Smith AMS. 2017. Human exposure and sensitivity to globally extreme wildfire events. *Nat. Ecol. Evol.* 1:58

141. Cochrane MA, Bowman DMJS. 2021. Manage fire regimes, not fires. *Nat. Geosci.* 14:455–57

142. Moreira F, Ascoli D, Safford H, Adams MA, Moreno JM, et al. 2020. Wildfire management in Mediterranean-type regions: paradigm change needed. *Environ. Res. Lett.* 15:011001

143. Borchers-Arriagada N, Bowman DMJS, Price O, Palmer AJ, Samson S, Clarke H. 2021. Smoke health costs and the calculus for wildfires fuel management: a modelling study. *Lancet Planet. Health* 5:e608–19

144. Shuman JK, Balch JK, Barnes RT, Higuera PE, Roos CI, et al. 2022. Reimagine fire science for the Anthropocene. *PNAS* Nexus 1:1–14

145. Harrison SP, Prentice IC, Bloomfield KJ, Dong N, Forkel M, et al. 2021. Understanding and modelling wildfire regimes: an ecological perspective. *Environ. Res. Lett.* 16:125008

146. Gillson L, Biggs H, Smit IPJ, Virah-Sawmy M, Rogers K. 2019. Finding common ground between adaptive management and evidence-based approaches to biodiversity conservation. *Trends Ecol. Evol.* 34:31–44

147. Keane RE, Loehman R. 2020. Historical Range and Variation (HRV). In *Encyclopedia of Wildfires and Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) Fires*, ed. SL Manzello. Cham, Switz.: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-51727-8_255-1

148. Whitlock C, Higuera PE, Mcwethy DB, Briles CE. 2010. Paleoecological perspectives on fire ecology: revisiting the fire-regime concept. *Open Ecol. J.* 3:6–23

149. Jones GM, Tingley MW. 2021. Pyrodiversity and biodiversity: a history, synthesis, and outlook. *Divers. Distrib.* 28:386–403
Contents

I. Integrative Themes and Emerging Concerns

30×30 for Climate: The History and Future of Climate
Change-Integrated Conservation Strategies
L. Hannah and G.F. Midgley .................................................................................. 1

Exploring Alternative Futures in the Anthropocene
Steven Cork, Carla Alexandra, Jorge G. Alvarez-Romero, Elena M. Bennett,
Marta Berbés-Blázquez, Erin Bohensky, Barbara Bok, Robert Costanza,
Shizuka Hashimoto, Rosemary Hill, Sobail Inayatullah, Kasper Kok,
Jan J. Kuiper, Magnus Moglia, Laura Pereira, Garry Peterson, Rebecca Weeks,
and Carina Wyborn ........................................................................................................ 25

Plastics and the Environment
I.E. Napper and R.C. Thompson .................................................................................. 55

Toward Zero-Carbon Urban Transitions with Health, Climate
Resilience, and Equity Co-Benefits: Assessing Nexus Linkages
Anu Ramaswami, Bhartendu Pandey, Qingchun Li, Kirti Das, and Ajay Nagpure ...... 81

II. Earth's Life Support Systems

Harmful Cyanobacterial Blooms: Biological Traits, Mechanisms, Risks,
and Control Strategies
Lirong Song, Yunlu Jia, Boqiang Qin, Renhui Li, Wayne W. Carmichael,
Nanqin Gan, Hai Xu, Kun Shan, and Assaf Sukenik .................................................. 123

Pushing the Frontiers of Biodiversity Research: Unveiling the Global
Diversity, Distribution, and Conservation of Fungi
Tuula Niskanen, Robert Lücking, Anders Dahlberg, Ester Gaya,
Laura M. Suz, Vladimir Mikryukov, Kare Liimatainen, Irina Druzinina,
James R.S. Westrip, Gregory M. Mueller, Kelmer Martins-Cunha, Paul Kirk,
Leho Tedersoo, and Alexandre Antonelli .................................................................. 149

Soils as Carbon Stores and Sinks: Expectations, Patterns, Processes,
and Prospects of Transitions
Meine van Noordwijk, Ermias Aynekulu, Renske Hijbeek, Eleanor Milne,
Budiman Minasny, and Danny Dwi Saputra .................................................................. 177
<figure><img src="image_20.png" /></figure>

# Contents

## I. Integrative Themes and Emerging Concerns

30×30 for Climate: The History and Future of Climate
Change-Integrated Conservation Strategies

L. Hannah and G.F. Midgley .................................................................................. 1

Exploring Alternative Futures in the Anthropocene

Steven Cork, Carla Alexandra, Jorge G. Alvarez-Romero, Elena M. Bennett, Marta Berbés-Blázquez, Erin Bohensky, Barbara Bok, Robert Costanza, Shizuka Hashimoto, Rosemary Hill, Sobail Inayatullah, Kasper Kok, Jan J. Kuiper, Magnus Moglia, Laura Pereira, Garry Peterson, Rebecca Weeks, and Carina Wyborn ..................................................................................25

Plastics and the Environment

I.E. Napper and R.C. Thompson ..................................................................................55

Toward Zero-Carbon Urban Transitions with Health, Climate

Resilience, and Equity Co-Benefits: Assessing Nexus Linkages
Anu Ramaswami, Bhartendu Pandey, Qingchun Li, Kirti Das, and Ajay Nagpure ........81

## II. Earth's Life Support Systems

Harmful Cyanobacterial Blooms: Biological Traits, Mechanisms, Risks,
and Control Strategies

Lirong Song, Yunlu Jia, Boqiang Qin, Renhui Li, Wayne W. Carmichael, Nanqin Gan, Hai Xu, Kun Shan, and Assaf Sukenik ..................................................123

Pushing the Frontiers of Biodiversity Research: Unveiling the Global
Diversity, Distribution, and Conservation of Fungi

Tuula Niskanen, Robert Lücking, Anders Dahlberg, Ester Gaya, Laura M. Suz, Vladimir Mikryukov, Kare Liimatainen, Irina Druzhinina, James R.S. Westrip, Gregory M. Mueller, Kelmer Martins-Cunha, Paul Kirk, Leho Tedersoo, and Alexandre Antonelli ..................................................149

Soils as Carbon Stores and Sinks: Expectations, Patterns, Processes,
and Prospects of Transitions

Meine van Noordwijk, Ermias Aynekulu, Renske Hijbeek, Eleanor Milne, Budiman Minasny, and Danny Dwi Saputra ..................................................177
Understanding Fire Regimes for a Better Anthropocene

<table><tr><td>Luke T. Kelly, Michael-Shawn Fletcher, Imma Oliveras Menor, Adam F.A. Pellegrini, Ella S. Plumanns-Pouton, Pere Pons, Grant J. Williamson, and David M.J.S. Bowman</td><td>207</td></tr></table>

III. Human Use of the Environment and Resources

Deforestation-Free Commodity Supply Chains: Myth or Reality?

<table><tr><td>Eric F. Lambin and Paul R. Furumo</td><td>237</td></tr></table>

Great Green Walls: Hype, Myth, and Science

<table><tr><td>Matthew D. Turner, Diana K. Davis, Emily T. Yeh, Pierre Hiernaux, Emma R. Loizeaux, Emily M. Fornof, Anika M. Rice, and Aaron K. Suiter</td><td>263</td></tr></table>

Mapping Industrial Influences on Earth's Ecology

<table><tr><td>James E.M. Watson, Erle C. Ellis, Rajeev Pillay, Brooke A. Williams, and Oscar Venter</td><td>289</td></tr></table>

Mitigation of Concurrent Flood and Drought Risks Through Land

<table><tr><td>Modifications: Potential and Perspectives of Land Users<br>Lenka Slavíková and Anita Milman</td><td>319</td></tr></table>

Surveying the Evidence on Sustainable Intensification Strategies for

<table><tr><td>Smallholder Agricultural Systems<br>Meha Jain, Christopher B. Barrett, Divya Solomon, and Kate Ghezzi-Kopel</td><td>347</td></tr></table>

Brine: Genesis and Sustainable Resource Recovery Worldwide

<table><tr><td>Chenglin Liu, Tim K. Lowenstein, Anjian Wang, Chunmiao Zheng, and Jianguo Yu</td><td>371</td></tr></table>

Groundwater Quality and Public Health

<table><tr><td>Xianjun Xie, Jianbo Shi, Kunfu Pi, Yamin Deng, Bing Yan, Lei Tong, Linlin Yao, Yiran Dong, Junxia Li, Liyuan Ma, Chunmiao Zheng, and Guibin Jiang</td><td>395</td></tr></table>

The Global Technical, Economic, and Feasible Potential of Renewable

<table><tr><td>Electricity<br>Nils Angliviel de La Beaumelle, Kornelis Blok, Jacques A. de Chalendar, Leon Clarke, Andrea N. Habmann, Jonathan Huster, Gregory F. Nemet, Dbruv Suri, Thomas B. Wild, and Inês M.L. Azevedo</td><td>419</td></tr></table>

The State of the World's Arable Land

<table><tr><td>Lennart Olsson, Francesca Cotrufo, Timothy Crews, Janet Franklin, Alison King, Alisher Mirzabaev, Murray Scown, Anna Tengberg, Sebastian Villarino, and Yafei Wang</td><td>451</td></tr></table>
Understanding Fire Regimes for a Better Anthropocene

<table><tr><td>Luke T. Kelly, Michael-Shawn Fletcher, Imma Oliveras Menor, Adam F.A. Pellegrini, Ella S. Plumanns-Pouton, Pere Pons, Grant J. Williamson, and David M.J.S. Bowman</td><td>207</td></tr></table>

III. Human Use of the Environment and Resources

Deforestation-Free Commodity Supply Chains: Myth or Reality?

<table><tr><td>Eric F. Lambin and Paul R. Furumo</td><td>237</td></tr></table>

Great Green Walls: Hype, Myth, and Science

<table><tr><td>Matthew D. Turner, Diana K. Davis, Emily T. Yeh, Pierre Hiernaux, Emma R. Loizeaux, Emily M. Fornof, Anika M. Rice, and Aaron K. Suiter</td><td>263</td></tr></table>

Mapping Industrial Influences on Earth's Ecology

<table><tr><td>James E.M. Watson, Erle C. Ellis, Rajeev Pillay, Brooke A. Williams, and Oscar Venter</td><td>289</td></tr></table>

Mitigation of Concurrent Flood and Drought Risks Through Land

<table><tr><td>Modifications: Potential and Perspectives of Land Users</td><td>319</td></tr></table>

Surveying the Evidence on Sustainable Intensification Strategies for

<table><tr><td>Smallholder Agricultural Systems</td><td>347</td></tr></table>

Brine: Genesis and Sustainable Resource Recovery Worldwide

<table><tr><td>Chenglin Liu, Tim K. Lowenstein, Anjian Wang, Chunmiao Zheng, and Jianguo Yu</td><td>371</td></tr></table>

Groundwater Quality and Public Health

<table><tr><td>Xianjun Xie, Jianbo Shi, Kunfu Pi, Yamin Deng, Bing Yan, Lei Tong, Linlin Yao, Yiran Dong, Junxia Li, Liyuan Ma, Chunmiao Zheng, and Guibin Jiang</td><td>395</td></tr></table>

The Global Technical, Economic, and Feasible Potential of Renewable

<table><tr><td>Electricity</td><td>419</td></tr></table>

The State of the World's Arable Land

<table><tr><td>Lennart Olsson, Francesca Cotrufo, Timothy Crews, Janet Franklin, Alison King, Alisher Mirzabaev, Murray Scown, Anna Tengberg, Sebastian Villarino, and Yafei Wang</td><td>451</td></tr></table>
IV. Management and Governance of Resources and Environment

Environmental Decision-Making in Times of Polarization
*Madeline Judge, Yoshihisa Kashima, Linda Steg, and Thomas Dietz* 477

Implications of Green Technologies for Environmental Justice
*Parth Vaishnav* 505

The Commons
*Arun Agrawal, James Erbaugh, and Nabin Pradhan* 531

Governance and Conservation Effectiveness in Protected Areas
and Indigenous and Locally Managed Areas
*Yin Zhang, Paige West, Lerato Thakholi, Kulbhushansingh Suryawanshi, Miriam Supuma, Dakota Straub, Samantha S. Sitbole, Roshan Sharma, Judith Schleicher, Ben Ruli, David Rodríguez-Rodríguez, Mattias Borg Rasmussen, Victoria C. Ramenzoni, Siyu Qin, Deborah Delgado Pugley, Rachel Palfrey, Johan Oldekoop, Emmanuel O. Nuesiri, Van Hai Thi Nguyen, Nouhou Ndam, Catherine Mungai, Sarah Milne, Mathew Bukhi Mabele, Sadie Lucitante, Hugo Lucitante, Jonathan Liljeblad, Wilhelm Andrew Kiwango, Alfred Kik, Nikoleta Jones, Melissa Johnson, Christopher Jarrett, Rachel Sapery James, George Holmes, Lydia N. Gibson, Arash Ghoddousi, Jonas Geldmann, Maria Fernanda Gebara, Thera Edwards, Wolfram H. Dressler, Leo R. Douglas, Panayiotis G. Dimitrakopoulos, Veronica Davidov, Eveline M.F.W. Compaoré-Sawadogo, Yolanda Ariadne Collins, Michael Cepek, Paul Berne Burow, Dan Brockington, Michael Philippe Bessike Balinga, Beau J. Austin, Rini Astuti, Christine Ampumuza, and Frank Kwaku Agyei* 559

Sustainability Careers
*Christopher G. Boone, Erin Bromaghim, and Anne R. Kapuscinski* 589

Three Decades of Climate Mitigation Policy: What Has It Delivered?
*Janna Hoppe, Ben Hinder, Ryan Rafaty, Anthony Patt, and Michael Grubb* 615

Overheating of Cities: Magnitude, Characteristics, Impact, Mitigation
and Adaptation, and Future Challenges
*Jie Feng, Kai Gao, H. Khan, G. Ulpiani, K. Vasilakopoulou, G. Young Yun, and M. Santamouris* 651

Risks to Coastal Critical Infrastructure from Climate Change
*Indrajit Pal, Anil Kumar, and Anirban Mukhopadhyay* 681

US Legal and Regulatory Framework for Nuclear Waste from Present
and Future Reactors and Their Fuel Cycles
*Sulgiye Park and Rodney C. Ewing* 713
IV. Management and Governance of Resources and Environment

Environmental Decision-Making in Times of Polarization
*Madeline Judge, Yoshihisa Kashima, Linda Steg, and Thomas Dietz* 477

Implications of Green Technologies for Environmental Justice
*Parth Vaishnav* 505

The Commons
*Arun Agrawal, James Erbaugh, and Nabin Pradhan* 531

Governance and Conservation Effectiveness in Protected Areas
and Indigenous and Locally Managed Areas
*Yin Zhang, Paige West, Lerato Thakholi, Kulbhushansingh Suryawanshi, Miriam Supuma, Dakota Straub, Samantha S. Sitbole, Roshan Sharma, Judith Schleicher, Ben Ruli, David Rodríguez-Rodríguez, Mattias Borg Rasmussen, Victoria C. Ramenzoni, Siyu Qin, Deborah Delgado Pugley, Rachel Palfrey, Johan Oldekoop, Emmanuel O. Nuesiri, Van Hai Thi Nguyen, Nouhou Ndam, Catherine Mungai, Sarah Milne, Mathew Bukhi Mabele, Sadie Lucitante, Hugo Lucitante, Jonathan Liljeblad, Wilhelm Andrew Kiwango, Alfred Kik, Nikoleta Jones, Melissa Johnson, Christopher Jarrett, Rachel Sapery James, George Holmes, Lydia N. Gibson, Arash Ghoddousi, Jonas Geldmann, Maria Fernanda Gebara, Thera Edwards, Wolfram H. Dressler, Leo R. Douglas, Panayiotis G. Dimitrakopoulos, Veronica Davidov, Eveline M.F.W. Compaoré-Sawadogo, Yolanda Ariadne Collins, Michael Cepek, Paul Berne Burow, Dan Brockington, Michael Philippe Bessike Balinga, Beau J. Austin, Rini Astuti, Christine Ampumuza, and Frank Kwaku Agyei* 559

Sustainability Careers
*Christopher G. Boone, Erin Bromaghim, and Anne R. Kapuscinski* 589

Three Decades of Climate Mitigation Policy: What Has It Delivered?
*Janna Hoppe, Ben Hinder, Ryan Rafaty, Anthony Patt, and Michael Grubb* 615

Overheating of Cities: Magnitude, Characteristics, Impact, Mitigation
and Adaptation, and Future Challenges
*Jie Feng, Kai Gao, H. Khan, G. Ulpiani, K. Vasilakopoulou, G. Young Yun, and M. Santamouris* 651

Risks to Coastal Critical Infrastructure from Climate Change
*Indrajit Pal, Anil Kumar, and Anirban Mukhopadhyay* 681

US Legal and Regulatory Framework for Nuclear Waste from Present
and Future Reactors and Their Fuel Cycles
*Sulgiye Park and Rodney C. Ewing* 713
## V. Methods and Indicators

### Metrics for Decision-Making in Energy Justice

<table><tr><td>Erin Baker, Sanya Carley, Sergio Castellanos, Destenie Nock, Joe F. Bozeman III, David Konisky, Chukwuka G. Monyei, Monisha Shah, and Benjamin Sovacool</td><td>737</td></tr></table>

### Modeling Low Energy Demand Futures for Buildings: Current State and Research Needs

<table><tr><td>Alessio Mastrucci, Leila Niamir, Benigna Boza-Kiss, Nuno Bento, Dominik Wiedenhofer, Jan Streeck, Shonali Pachauri, Charlie Wilson, Souran Chatterjee, Felix Creutzig, Srihari Dukkipati, Wei Feng, Arnulf Grubler, Joni Jupesta, Poornima Kumar, Giacomo Marangoni, Yamina Saheb, Yoshiyuki Shimoda, Bianka Shoai-Tehrani, Yohei Yamaguchi, and Bas van Ruijven</td><td>761</td></tr></table>

### Advances in Qualitative Methods in Environmental Research

<table><tr><td>Holly Caggiano and Elke U. Weber</td><td>793</td></tr></table>

### Attribution of Extreme Events to Climate Change

<table><tr><td>Friederike E.L. Otto</td><td>813</td></tr></table>

## Indexes

Cumulative Index of Contributing Authors, Volumes 39–48 829

Cumulative Index of Article Titles, Volumes 39–48 838

## Errata

An online log of corrections to *Annual Review of Environment and Resources* articles may be found at http://www.annualreviews.org/errata/environ
## V. Methods and Indicators

### Metrics for Decision-Making in Energy Justice

<table><tr><td>Erin Baker, Sanya Carley, Sergio Castellanos, Destenie Nock, Joe F. Bozeman III, David Konisky, Chukwuka G. Monyei, Monisha Shah, and Benjamin Sovacool</td><td>737</td></tr></table>

### Modeling Low Energy Demand Futures for Buildings: Current State and Research Needs

<table><tr><td>Alessio Mastrucci, Leila Niamir, Benigna Boza-Kiss, Nuno Bento, Dominik Wiedenhofer, Jan Streeck, Shonali Pachauri, Charlie Wilson, Souran Chatterjee, Felix Creutzig, Srihari Dukkipati, Wei Feng, Arnulf Grubler, Joni Jupesta, Poornima Kumar, Giacomo Marangoni, Yamina Saheb, Yoshiyuki Shimoda, Bianka Shoai-Tehrani, Yohei Yamaguchi, and Bas van Ruijven</td><td>761</td></tr></table>

### Advances in Qualitative Methods in Environmental Research

<table><tr><td>Holly Caggiano and Elke U. Weber</td><td>793</td></tr></table>

### Attribution of Extreme Events to Climate Change

<table><tr><td>Friederike E.L. Otto</td><td>813</td></tr></table>

## Indexes

Cumulative Index of Contributing Authors, Volumes 39–48 829

Cumulative Index of Article Titles, Volumes 39–48 838

## Errata

An online log of corrections to *Annual Review of Environment and Resources* articles may be found at http://www.annualreviews.org/errata/environ