# Benchmarking the Trends of Urbanization in the Gulf Cooperation Council: Outlook to 2050

Osama A. Marzouk

► To cite this version:

Osama A. Marzouk. Benchmarking the Trends of Urbanization in the Gulf Cooperation Council: Outlook to 2050. 1st National Symposium on Emerging Trends in Engineering and Management (NSETEM'2017), Waljat College of Applied Sciences (WCAS), Muscat, Sultanate of Oman, Nov 2017, Muscat, Sultanate of Oman, Oman. pp.1-9, 10.5281/zenodo.1346104. [hal-04922126](https://hal.science/hal-04922126v1)

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# Benchmarking the Trends of Urbanization in the Gulf Cooperation Council: Outlook to 2050

Osama A. Marzouk

University of Buraimi

Email: osama.m@uob.edu.om

## Abstract

Historical data since 1950 and prospects for 2050 are presented here to show the trends of urbanization locally in the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries as compared to the regional (Western Asia), and global counterparts. The trends are also examined for countries grouped based on their level of development (more developed, less developed, and least developed) and their level of income (high, upper-middle, lower-middle, and low). Countries with higher development level or income have more urbanization percentage than those with lower development level or income. Whereas Oman has consistently the lowest urbanization percentage among the GCC countries, it has the fastest urbanization rate during 1950-1995. The gap among all GCC countries is expected to decay, where all will have an urbanization percentage of 87% or more in 2050. The data presented here are predominantly based on processing raw data published by the United Nations (UN) through its Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA).

**Keywords:** urbanization, Oman, GCC, benchmarking, development, united nations

## 1. Introduction

Whereas the shift of a society from non-urban to urban differs largely from one country to another, it progresses rapidly overall [1]. Such shifting has economic, demographic and societal impacts. It is thus important to monitor and predict its progress locally and globally. The United Nations (UN) is already committed to this task and issues a comprehensive report about urbanization every three-to-five years under the title "World Urbanization Prospects" since 1990. We here use the latest revision of 2014, published in 2015 [2].

Urbanization is strongly linked to the mechanization and automation of human activities [3]. However classifying a locality as urban or non-urban (the UN uses the term rural) is not obvious, especially in industrialized countries. There is no universal criterion but, there are helpful indicators, such as the fast and punctual style of life, high standard of living, low percentage of the labor force working in agriculture, electrified dwellings, availability of municipality-centralized plumbing and sanitary systems, comprehensive medical services, schools meeting the needs of different ages, paved roads with street lights, and the presence of recreational and aesthetic sites [4]. For UN studies, areas are classified as urban based on the criteria used by each country or territory. In addition, the urban population of a country is the midyear estimated population living in urban areas within that country regardless of citizenship or residence status [5]. The population size (both urban and rural) of a country is calculated also at the middle of the year, regardless of citizenship or residence status.
## 2. Population growth rates

The aggregate world population is increasing. A population of 7.3 billion in 2015 is projected to increase to about 9.8 billion in 2050 [6]. Yet, the world population is decelerating [7, 8]. The annual population growth rates of the world over the period 1960-2016 are shown in Figure 1. It is noted that this growth rate follows a declining trend since 1963. These growth rate data are taken from the World Bank Data [9], and they represent, for an arbitrary year (t), the exponential rate of growth of midyear population from year (t-1) to year (t). Such exponential growth rate is calculated with the assumption of constant rate of growth between two points in time with a number n of years between them, with an end population of p_n and an initial population of p_0. It is calculated as: ln(p_n/p_0)/n, where ln() denotes the natural-logarithm function. Thus, this growth rate is different from the geometric growth rate used to compute compound growth. The population size of a country accounts for all individuals within that country, no matter what the residence status or citizenship is. The annual growth rate of the GCC countries are well fluctuating. One should pay attention that their populations are highly sensitive to the flow of expatriate workforce. For example, the number of expats in Oman exceeded 2 million in early 2016 [10], which is about 46% of the entire population.

<figure><img src="image_2.png" /><figcaption>Figure 1. Annual growth rates for the world and GCC countries (1960 – 2016) [9]</figcaption></figure>

The arithmetic average of the growth rates recorded for all GCC countries are well above the arithmetic-averaged growth rate of the world (1.62%). This is summarized in Table 1.

<table><caption>Table 1. Summary of averaged population growth rate for GCC countries (1960 - 2016)</caption><thead><tr><th>GCC country</th><th>UAE</th><th>Kuwait</th><th>Oman</th><th>Qatar</th><th>Bahrain</th><th>Saudi Arabia</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Avg. growth rate</td><td>8.18%</td><td>5.75%</td><td>3.69%</td><td>7.13%</td><td>3.87%</td><td>3.68%</td></tr><tr><td>Relative to world</td><td>5.07</td><td>3.56</td><td>2.29</td><td>4.41</td><td>2.40</td><td>2.28</td></tr></tbody></table>

## 3. GCC populations - historical data and prospects for 2050
Before examining the urbanization rates, it is useful to first examine the growth in the total population. The population size of the six GCC countries since 1950 until 2050 (expected) are presented in Figures 2 and 3. The population sizes in 1950, 2015, and 2050 are labeled in these figures.

<figure><img src="image_3.png" /><figcaption>Figure 2. National population (past and expected) for four GCC countries [2]</figcaption></figure>

<figure><img src="image_4.png" /><figcaption>Figure 3. National population (past and expected) for remaining two GCC countries [2]</figcaption></figure>
The population of any GCC country in 2050 is estimated to be between 11 and 222 times its size back in 1950. Such relatively high multiplication is summarized in Table 2. United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar show significant growth, with a multiplication factor exceeding one-hundred over this one-hundred-year interval. As a reference, the world population is expected to multiply by a factor of 3.8 over the same interval.

<table><caption>Table 2. Expected multiplication of GCC population size in 2050 relative to 1950</caption><thead><tr><th>GCC country</th><th>UAE</th><th>Kuwait</th><th>Oman</th><th>Qatar</th><th>Bahrain</th><th>Saudi Arabia</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Population multiplication (1950 – 2050)</td><td>222.4</td><td>41.7</td><td>11.1</td><td>119.4</td><td>15.9</td><td>12.9</td></tr></tbody></table>

## 4. Urbanization and level of development

It is intuitive to have a correlation between the level of development of a country and its urban proportion. The UN classify countries into three groups in a descending order of development level. These groups are:

* More developed countries (developed countries): All countries of Europe and Northern America, in addition to Australia, New Zealand, and Japan.

* Less developed countries (developing countries): All countries of Africa, Asia (excluding Japan), Latin America, and the Caribbean. This is in addition to Melanesia, Micronesia and Polynesia.

* Least developed countries: These are a subgroup of the (less developed countries). They are 49 countries as listed in Table 3. Most of these countries are in Africa. It is worthy of mentioning that this list is dynamic and changes from time to time.

In the data presented here, we separate the (least developed countries) from the (less developed countries). Thus, what is called here (less developed countries) can be thought of as a middle-level development countries between the (more developed) and the (least developed) ones. This forms a fairer comparison and more-proper benchmarking.

<table><caption>Table 3. Least developed countries (LDCs) defined by the UN as of June 2013</caption><thead><tr><th>Africa (34)</th><th>Asia (9)</th><th>Caribbean (1)</th><th>Pacific (5)</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Angola, Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gambia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali,</td><td>Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Myanmar, Nepal, Timor-Leste, Yemen</td><td>Haiti</td><td>Kiribati, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, Vanuatu</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table><tr><td>Mauritania, Mozambique, Niger, Rwanda, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Togo, Uganda, United Republic of Tanzania, Zambia</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr></table>

Figure 4 compares the evolution of the urbanization percentage for the world to the urbanization percentage of each development-level group. The urban percentages in 1950, 2015, and 2050 are labeled for each group in the figure. The patterns look very reasonable, with the more developed countries showing the highest urbanization level, whereas the least developed countries having the lowest urbanization level. In spite of this, the urbanization proportion for all three groups (as well as globally) is steadily increasing with time. In addition, this growth is biased toward the less developed and least developed groups, leading to slow shrinkage of the urbanization gap between the three groups. This means that as a population becomes more urban, further urbanization becomes difficult; it is easier to reshape a less-urban society than an urban one. The findings from Figure 4 are very logic and thus testify to the properness of the data collected and published by the UN.

<figure><img src="image_5.png" /><figcaption>Figure 4. Urbanization percentage by the level of development [2].
Note that the (less developed) group excludes the (least developed) group.</figcaption></figure>
**5. Urbanization and level of income**

To examine the interdependence between the income level and the urbanization progress, Figure 5 compares the urban proportion of the high income, upper-middle income, lower-middle income, and low income countries (four groups) to each other and to the world. The urban percentages in 1950, 2015, and 2050 are labeled for each group in the figure.

As a first remark, there is a clear qualitative relation between the income level and the urbanization level. More urbanized societies are characterized with some features that improve efficiency and economic competitiveness, such as education, technological readiness, health care, and infrastructure [11]. In other words, urbanization is thought of as a driving force for an elevated income. As a second remark, the urbanization growth is steeper for low income and lower-middle income groups than the high income group, thereby reducing the gap between them (although slowly). As a third remark, the urbanization of the upper-middle group is currently progressing at the steepest rate among all four groups. This brings this group close to the high income group as time passes. In 2050, the gap between these two groups is expected to drop to only 7.4% (as compared to 16.9% in 2015, and 36.8% in 1950). As a fourth remark, the urbanization percentage has been always increasing from one year to the next for each group as well as globally; it never drops or even remains unchanged.

<figure><img src="image_6.png" /><figcaption>Figure 5. Urbanization percentage by the level of income [2].</figcaption></figure>

**6. Benchmarking the urbanization rate in Oman**
To better judge the urbanization progress in Oman, we compare it to the urbanization progress of the world, the less developed countries (to which Oman belongs), the high income group (to which Oman belongs), to Asia, and to Western Asia countries (to which Oman belongs) in Figure 6. This figure reveals that Oman was predominantly non-urban back in 1950, with an urbanization proportion of only 8.6%. This was below the urbanization proportion of all five benchmarking cases shown in the figure. However, the situation has improved at a high pace since then until 1995. This period includes the onset of the Renaissance in Oman (starting 1971) that featured strong favorable social, economic, and educational transformations in the country.

In 1995, the urbanization percentage in Oman has surpassed those of all the benchmarking cases except the high income group, and even the deviation with that group was very small. The urbanization in Oman is proceeding steadily now, although with a slower pace than before. We recall that this is a normal situation, where urbanization slows down as the society becomes more urban. It is expected that the urbanization percentage for Oman in 2050 (86.5%) becomes on bar with that of the high income group (86.7%), putting Oman in a leading position compared to all other benchmarking cases.

<figure><img src="image_7.png" /><figcaption>Figure 6. Urbanization percentage or Oman, benchmarked with its regions or countries in the same class [2].</figcaption></figure>

Note that the (less developed) group excludes the (least developed) group.
As another comparative analysis of urbanization in Oman, Figure 7 compares the progress in the urban proportion in Oman with those in other GCC countries over the period 1950–2050. Over the entire period, Oman is ranked at the last position among the GCC countries. However, given its fast progress in urbanization compared to the other GCC countries, the gap of urbanization percentage is diminishing.

<figure><img src="image_8.png" /><figcaption>Figure 7. Urbanization percentage of GCC countries [2]</figcaption></figure>

Oman and Saudi Arabia have quite similar trends of urban transformation, which is quite different from the trends recorded for the other four GCC countries. Both Saudi Arabia and Oman had a minor urban proportion back in 1950. UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain had a much better status at the same time. Qatar and Kuwait have nearly reached full urbanization already.

It is worthy of being mentioned that three countries have reached 100% urbanization (as of 2014), which are:

* Singapore

* Hong Kong (Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China)

* Macao (Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China)

Qatar is ranked at the 4th position (percentage urban 99.2%), and Kuwait comes in the 6th position (percentage urban 98.3%).

## 7. Conclusions
Statistical and forecasting analysis of the growth in population size and urbanization percentage in the GCC countries show rapid and persistent progress toward a fully urban society. Oman has similarity with Saudi Arabia in the urbanization percentage profile over the period 1950 – 2050. Both started from a predominantly non-urban society, but progressed at the highest rate compared to other GCC countries, as well as to high income and less developed (excluding least developed) countries and Western Asia countries. On the other hand, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain started with an urban percentage above 50% in 1950. They progressed at a slower rate toward full urbanization (as expected for more-urban society). Qatar and Kuwait reached a leading urbanization status worldwide in 2014, with almost full urbanization. Overall, the gaps among GCC countries and different classes of countries are decaying over time. Such societal change calls for careful governmental planning to ensure an inclusive and successful development that increases the economic efficiency of the society and improves the life of its members without problems in housing or employment.

## 8. References

[1] G. McGranahan, D. Schensul and G. Singh, "Inclusive urbanization: Can the 2030 agenda be delivered without it?" Environment and Urbanization, vol. 28, no. 1, pp. 13-34, Feb. 2016.

[2] United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables (Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP/248), New York, 2015.

[3] M. J. Miner, R. A. Taylor, C. J. and P. E. Phelan, "Efficiency, economics, and the urban heat island" Environment and Urbanization, vol. 29, no. 1, pp. 183-194, Apr. 2017.

[4] United Nations Statistics Division, Population Density and Urbanization, https://unstats.un.org/UNSD/demographic/sconcerns/densurb/densurbmethods.htm, 2017, accessed 21 October 2017.

[5] United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), Population Division, World Population Policies 2013 (Working Paper No. ST/ESA/SER.A/341), New York, 2013.

[6] R. J. Walker, "Population growth and its implications for global security," Nature, vol. 75, no. 4, pp. 980-1004, Sep. 2016.

[7] J. Tollefson, "Seven billion and counting," Nature, vol. 478, no. 300, Oct. 2011.

[8] United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision (Working Paper No. ST/ESA/SER.A/366), New York, 2015.

[9] World Bank Group, Population Growth (Annual %), https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.GROW, 2017, accessed 21 October 2017.

[10] Times of Oman, Number of expats in Oman reaches 2 million, http://timesofoman.com/article/81891/Oman/Government/Expatriate-population-crosses-2-million-in-Oman, 19 April 2016, accessed 22 October 2017.

[11] K. Schwab (Editor), and X. Sala-i-Martín (Chief Advisor), The Global Competitiveness Report 2016-2017, World Economic Forum, Geneva, Switzerland, 2016.