# Shifting Drivers of Holocene Fire Regimes in Uzbekistan: From Natural Factors to Anthropogenic Impact

Chéïma Barhoumi, Lucas Dugerdil, Marie-Estelle Delpiroux, Julie Alibert, Dilfuza Egamberdieva, Jahongir Alimov, Marion Lestienne, Christelle Hély, Adam Ali, Elise Luneau, et al.

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## To cite this version:

Chéïma Barhoumi, Lucas Dugerdil, Marie-Estelle Delpiroux, Julie Alibert, Dilfuza Egamberdieva, et al.. Shifting Drivers of Holocene Fire Regimes in Uzbekistan: From Natural Factors to Anthropogenic Impact. Anthropocene, 2026, 53, pp.100531. 10.1016/j.ancene.2026.100531. hal-05497052

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# Shifting Drivers of Holocene Fire Regimes in Uzbekistan: From Natural Factors to Anthropogenic Impact

Chéïma Barhoumi, Lucas Dugerdil, Marie-Estelle Delpiroux, Julie Alibert, Dilfuza Egamberdieva, Jahongir Alimov, Marion Lestienne, Christelle Hély, Adam A. Ali, Elise Luneau, Johanna Lhuillier, Sébastien Joannin

<figure><img src="image_3.png" /></figure>

PII: S2213-3054(26)00006-8

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ancene.2026.100531

Reference: ANCENE100531

To appear in: *Anthropocene*

Received date: 13 May 2025

Revised date: 3 September 2025

Accepted date: 2 February 2026

Please cite this article as: Chéïma Barhoumi, Lucas Dugerdil, Marie-Estelle Delpiroux, Julie Alibert, Dilfuza Egamberdieva, Jahongir Alimov, Marion Lestienne, Christelle Hély, Adam A. Ali, Elise Luneau, Johanna Lhuillier and Sébastien Joannin, *Shifting Drivers of Holocene Fire Regimes in Uzbekistan: From Natural Factors to Anthropogenic Impact*, *Anthropocene*, (2026) doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ancene.2026.100531

This is a PDF of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the addition of a cover page and metadata, and formatting for readability. This version will undergo additional copyediting, typesetting and review before it is published in its final form. As such, this version is no longer the Accepted Manuscript, but it is not yet the definitive Version of Record; we are providing this early version to give early visibility of the article. Please note that Elsevier's sharing policy for the Published Journal Article applies to this version, see: https://www.elsevier.com/about/policies-and-standards/sharing#4-published-journal-article. Please also note that, during the production process, errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.
# Shifting Drivers of Holocene Fire Regimes in Uzbekistan:
## From Natural Factors to Anthropogenic Impact

Chéima Barhoumi<fnref n="1" />, Lucas Dugerdil<fnref n="1" />, Marie-Estelle Delpiroux<fnref n="1" />, <fnref n="2" />, Julie Alibert<fnref n="1" />, <fnref n="3" />, Dilfuza Egamberdieva<fnref n="4" />, Jahongir Alimov<fnref n="5" />, Marion Lestienne<fnref n="6" />, Christelle Hély<fnref n="1" />, Adam A. Ali<fnref n="1" />, Elise Luneau<fnref n="7" />, <fnref n="8" />, Johanna Lhuillier<fnref n="9" /> and Sébastien Joannin<fnref n="1" />

Corresponding author: cheima.barhoumi@gmail.com; lucas.dugerdil@ens-lyon.fr

## Acknowledgements

This research was funded, in whole or in part, by [ANR, Grant ANR-22-CE27-0018-02 and Grant ANR-20-FRAL-0006]. A CC-BY public copyright license has been applied by the authors to the present document and will be applied to all subsequent versions up to the Author Accepted Manuscript arising from this submission, in accordance with the grant's open access conditions. We thank the LMC14 staff (Laboratoire de Mesure du Carbone-14), ARTEMIS national facility, (LSCE (CNRS-CEA-UVSQ)-IRD-IRSN-MC) for the results obtained with the accelerator mass spectrometry method. This research was conducted in cooperation framed by a memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the CNRS/University of Montpellier and the National University of Uzbekistan. We extend our gratitude to Sylvie Rouland for her invaluable assistance and expertise in using the ImageJ software. We would also like to thank Behruz Toshbadalov and Abdurakhman Zaripov, who contributed to the fieldwork, whose efforts were essential to the success of this study. This is an ISEM contribution No. ISEM 2025-177.

<footnote n="1">¹Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier, Université de Montpellier, France</footnote>

<footnote n="2">²Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier, France</footnote>

<footnote n="3">³Université de Rennes, France</footnote>

<footnote n="4">⁴Institute of Fundamental and Applied Research, National Research University TIIAME, Uzbekistan</footnote>

<footnote n="5">⁵International Agriculture University, Kibray district, Uzbekistan</footnote>

<footnote n="6">⁶Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d'Écologie marine et continentale, Université d'Aix-Marseille, France</footnote>

<footnote n="7">⁷Deutsches Archäologisches Institut, Eurasien-Abteilung, Berlin, Germany</footnote>

<footnote n="8">⁸CNRS UMR 8215, Trajectoires, Paris, France</footnote>

<footnote n="9">⁹Laboratoire Archéorient, CNRS, Université Lumière Lyon 2, France</footnote>
**Abstract**

In the context of the current fire intensification associated to climate aridification, this study explores Holocene fire regimes in the foothills of the Pamir-Alai Range (Uzbekistan) through macro-charcoal analysis of sediment cores from Lake Fazilman and the Ogshagil wetland, spanning the past 11000 years. In addition to their novelty, results reveal distinct fire phases driven by both climatic fluctuations and human activities. During the early Holocene (12000-5000 cal. yr BP), fire activity was primarily climate-driven, with higher frequencies during arid phases. A significant shift occurred around 4000 – 3000 cal. yr BP, with synchronous fire trends at both sites suggesting increased anthropogenic influence linked to agro-pastoral practices of the Oxus Civilization, the Andronovo Cultures and the Handmade Painted Ware Cultures. Fire frequency declined during periods of intensified agricultural practices but increased again in later centuries, likely influenced by shifts in land use and socio-economic dynamics. Over the past 500 years, a rise in fire activity and woody plant combustion, likely influenced by post-medieval pastoral land use and firewood transportation, suggests intensified human impact. This study provides new insights into the interplay between climate, vegetation, human activity and fire in shaping Central Asia's steppe landscapes.

**Keywords:** Charcoal, Pastoralism, Bronze Age, Early Iron Age, Oxus civilization, Andronovo, Fire hazard, climate model
# 1. Introduction

Steppes and forest-steppes are among the least studied and poorly documented biomes (Taft et al., 2011; Erdős et al., 2018). Forest-steppes, characterized by a mosaic of forests and grasslands in temperate regions, are shaped by semi-humid to semi-arid climates and complex biotic and abiotic interactions. Due to extensive habitat loss and inadequate protection, they are considered one of the most threatened ecosystems. Within this context, the Circum-Caspian Arid Zone (CCA), which hosts both types of environments, has been primarily shaped by past climatic fluctuations, which played a decisive role in structuring landscapes and determining vegetation patterns over millennia (Wang et al., 2010; Chen et al., 2019; Raduła et al., 2021). Located between boreal forests northward and deserts southward (Chibilyov, 2002), these steppes are highly sensitive to both internal ecological disturbances, such as fire or soil properties and external influences like climate change and human activities (Aleman et al., 2013; Leys et al., 2018; Cromartie et al., 2020; Unkelbach and Behling, 2022). The interplay of these factors has contributed to dynamic shifts in landscape composition and biodiversity, highlighting the fragile and evolving nature of steppe ecosystems. The climatic dynamics of the Circum-Caspian region have been largely influenced by atmospheric circulation patterns, particularly the dominant westerly winds originating from the Atlantic (Leroy et al., 2014). In particular, the climate of Uzbekistan, and specifically the piedmonts of the Pamir Mountains, is shaped by the interaction between westerlies and the Siberian High, a dominant winter high-pressure system (Fan et al., 2023). The climatic variations in Middle Asia (MA) have profound effects on local hydrology and vegetation throughout the Holocene (Wang et al., 2010; Chen et al., 2019). The region initially experienced an arid phase during the early Holocene (~11700 cal. yr BP), followed by a more humid period between 8000 and 5000 cal. yr BP, which saw increased precipitation and the expansion of steppe biomes in the plains and forest-steppes along the mountain slopes. Around 5000 to 3000 cal. yr BP, however, the region underwent a return to arid conditions, as evidenced by studies from the Caspian Sea, Aral Sea, and Armenia, which document declining precipitation and the re-expansion of desert and steppe environments (Boomer et al., 2000; Joannin et al., 2014; Leroy et al., 2014; Cromartie et al., 2020; Chen et al., 2019, 2024). Despite these broad trends, the climatic history of the Pamir-Alai piedmonts remains complex and less well understood due to scarce paleoclimate studies. According to Chen et al. (2024), significant uncertainties persist regarding the precise timing and magnitude of climatic fluctuations in this region, emphasizing the need for further detailed studies to clarify local environmental dynamics and their impacts. Understanding these past environmental changes is crucial, as they have played a fundamental role in shaping human occupation patterns.

For over 5000 years, steppes and forest-steppes have provided the environmental foundation for agro-pastoral societies, particularly during the Bronze Age (approximately 5000–3400 cal. yr BP or 3000–1400 BCE) in the piedmonts and mountains of Central Asia’s arid deserts (Frachetti, 2008; Bendrey, 2011; Frachetti, 2012; Spengler, 2015; Ullah et al., 2019; Spate et al., 2022). The exploitation of these steppes by nomadic and semi-nomadic societies led to significant modifications in vegetation structure,
with overgrazing and land-use practices accelerating the transition from forest-steppe to open grasslands, particularly during the last century (Tuvshintogtokh and Ariungerel, 2013; Morinaga, 2018). Parallel to the movement of people with primary Iranian farmer-related ancestry into Central Asia beginning in the Neolithic and continuing into the Bronze Age (Narasimhan et al., 2019), farming cultures and/or animal husbandry appeared since the Neolithic (9th-8th millennium BP) in various regions (Brunet, 2004). Central Asian economy became based on (irrigated) agriculture, cattle breeding and specialized hunting (Lisitsina, 1969; Francfort and Lecomte, 2002; Kohl, 2007; Tengberg, 2013; Kircho, 2021; Rouse et al., 2024). During the Chalcolithic (6450-4950 cal. yr BP) and Bronze Age (5000-3400 cal. yr BP), proto-urban societies emerged, as evidenced by various sites of the Kopet Dagh foothills (Kircho, 2021) and Sarazm in the Zeravshan valley (Mutin, 2024). These processes culminated in the development of the Bactria-Margiana Archaeological Complex (BMAC). Also known as the Oxus civilization, the BMAC flourished between ~4250 and 3650 cal. yr BP (2300-1700 BCE) followed by around two centuries of decline (Lyonnet and Dubova, 2021). The BMAC populations coexisted with cultural groups related to the communities inhabiting the steppe and mountainous areas further north (called “steppe” groups) which were particularly associated with the Andronovo Cultural Community (Kuz’mina, 2007).. Although they practiced agriculture in some extent (Spengler, 2015), these individuals are commonly described as mobile pastoralists (Spengler et al., 2014; Rouse and Cerasetti, 2018). These communities facilitated the spread of domesticated plants and animals through mountain corridors (mainly through Pamir-Alai and Tian Shan), further integrating the region into broader exchange networks (Spengler et al., 2014; Hermes et al., 2019). The disappearance of the Oxus Civilization at the transition to the Iron Age around 3450 cal. yr BP remains poorly understood, with various hypotheses being explored to explain this cultural decline, i.e. climate change, demographic trends, economic shifts, socio-political transformations, the impact of the “steppe” populations, and the combination of various of these factors (Luneau, 2014, 2021).. The social restructuration led to the growth of the Handmade Painted Ware Cultures of the Early Iron Age (ca. 3450-2850 cal. yr BP / 1500-900 BCE) characterizing a new type of society marked, for instance, by small rural settlements, the absence of prestigious goods, and the scarcity of burials replaced by other funeral practices (Lhuillier, 2013)..

While the trend toward aridification is believed to have contributed to a slowdown in trade and cultural exchanges, uncertainties persist regarding the extent to which human populations adapted to environmental challenges and whether fire regimes played a role in these transitions. Fire, both natural and anthropogenic, play a crucial role in shaping vegetation dynamics, acting as a major disturbance factor that periodically reset successional processes and influenced biodiversity patterns (Thonicke et al., 2001). Fires can accelerate ecosystem transformations by altering soil composition, promoting the spread of fire-adapted plant species, and affecting hydrological cycles. In arid and semi-arid environments such as the CCA, fire regimes are particularly sensitive to climatic fluctuations and human land-use practices, including pastoralism and agriculture (Dubinin et al., 2010; Yin et al., 2021; Zhang
et al., 2021). In arid steppes, fires trigger immediate ecological disruption, burning biomass, stripping vegetation cover, and exposing fragile soils to erosion. This disturbance briefly favours fast-regenerating grasses, but over time, repeated fires deplete soil nutrients, weaken carbon storage, and drive a shift from diverse ecosystems to grass-dominated, degraded landscapes. Human activities, particularly overgrazing following fires, intensify the damage by preventing natural recovery and compounding land degradation (Dubinin et al., 2010; Yin et al., 2021; Zhang et al., 2021). Exploring past fire regimes provides valuable insights into climate variability and human activity, as changes in fire frequency and intensity often reflect shifts in vegetation composition, precipitation patterns, and anthropogenic pressure. Despite the pivotal role of fire in ecosystem dynamics, the Holocene fire history of the CCA remains largely unknown, representing a critical gap in our understanding of the long-term environmental transformations that have influenced the region. Addressing this gap is essential for reconstructing the past interactions between climate, vegetation, and human activity, and for assessing the resilience of steppe ecosystems to environmental stressors (human and natural). To address this knowledge gap, this study reconstructs Holocene fire regimes in Uzbekistan using macro-charcoal analysis from sediment cores at Lake Fazilman and Ogshagil wetland. By integrating fire proxies with climatic and archaeological data, we aim to:

* Identify long-term Holocene trends in fire frequency and fuel type.

* Examine major shifts in fire activity and their correlation with vegetation changes, climate fluctuations, and human activities.

To address these objectives, we formulate the following hypotheses:

* Early to mid-Holocene fires were primarily climate-driven, with higher fire frequency during drier phases (Sayedi et al., 2024).

* From ~4000 cal. yr BP onwards, anthropogenic fire activity increased due to the spread of agro-pastoral practices under BMAC and Andronovo influences.

By reconstructing past fire regimes, this study aims to provide a deeper understanding of the environmental history of the region and contribute to broader discussions on the resilience of steppe ecosystems in the face of both natural and anthropogenic pressures.

## 2. Material and Methods

### 2.1. Study area

MA, including Uzbekistan, is characterized by a dry continental climate marked by distinct seasons. Summers are hot, often exceeding 40°C, while winters are cold, with temperatures dropping below zero. Precipitation is generally low, averaging around 200-400 mm annually, but varies by region, with higher rainfall in the mountainous areas of southern and southeastern Uzbekistan (between 300-550 mm)), but its seasonality is more significant, as 70% of the rain falls during the spring (Shahgedanova, 2003).
Strong winds are common during summer, and low humidity exacerbates drought and accelerates water evaporation. The region benefits from abundant sunshine year-round, further intensifying summer heat. The climate, particularly in the Pamir foothills, is shaped by the interaction of the westerlies, which bring moisture and influence seasonal rainfall, and the Siberian High, a dominant winter high-pressure system that creates cold, dry conditions and blocks moist air masses, contributing to aridity (Khaydarov and Gerlitz, 2019; Fan et al., 2023; Li and Zhu, 2024).

<figure><img src="image_4.png" /><figcaption>Figure 1: (A) Map of Uzbekistan (L. Dugerdil) showing the locations of Lake Fazilman and the Ogshagil wetland (red dots). Andronovo complex extended from the Southern Urals in the west to the Yenisei River in Southern Siberia and western Xinjiang in the east. In the north, its border is the zone of southern taiga, and in the south, Andronovo sites were studied in the south of Central Asia, in Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan (Kuz'mina, 2007; Grigoriev, 2021). The BMAC complex extended across northern Afghanistan, southeastern Uzbekistan, southern Turkmenistan, and western Tajikistan (Salvatori, 2004; Lyonnet and Dubova, 2021). Blue dots indicate Bronze and Early Ages archaeological sites located near the study areas, while yellow dots indicate modern human habitation sites.</figcaption></figure>
represent studies referenced in the introduction and discussion. (B) Photograph of Lake Fazilman (L. Dugerdil).

(C) Photograph of the Ogshagil wetland (L. Dugerdil).

In Uzbekistan, the foothills of the Pamir-Alai Range extend from the Aydarkul Reservoir in the north to the Afghan border in the south, encompassing parts of Navoi, Samarkand, Qashkandarya, and Surkhandarya provinces. This region is bisected by the Zeravshan River, bordered by the Kyzylkum Desert to the northwest, Sudunkli desert to the west, and Andijan Dam to the east. Lake Fazilman (1645 m a.s.l.) is located within the northern Nuratau relic Mountains near the administrative junction of Navoi, Samarkand, and Djizak provinces (Figure 1A; Table 1). It is surrounded by typical piedmont steppe vegetation, known locally as *adyr* steppes (CI. *Artemisia persicae* - *Stipetea drobovii* A. Nowak, S. Świerszcz, S. Nowak, A. Nobis & M. Nobis in Nowak et al., 2024), consisting of grasslands (association between *Astragalus* spp. scrubs and carpet of *Carex pachystylis* and *Poa bulbosa* herbs), shrublands (*Pistacia vera*, *Prunus spinosissima* and *Rhamnus* spp.), and riparian forests in the valleys (*Juglans regia*, *Morus alba*, *Salix* spp., *Populus alba* and *Prunus cerasifera*). Endemic juniper trees (mainly *Juniperus seravschanica* and *J. semiglobosa*) are found in the higher-altitude Nuratau Mountains to the east. South of the Zeravshan River, the Ogshagil wetland, at 1810 m a.s.l., lies near the Turkestan Mountains (Figure 1A; Table 1). The area around Ogshagil wetland supports more varied vegetation, including *tau* steppes and flora adapted to colder temperatures, forming an ecotone between *adyr* steppes and *tau* steppes and woodlands. The littoral vegetation of both hydrosystems transitions from terrestrial to aquatic environments, supporting a unique assemblage of plant species and contributing to the region's biodiversity (Mustafina et al., 2022; Nikitina et al., 2022; Volis and Beshko, 2023).

<table><caption>Table 1. Main characteristics of Lake Fazilman and Ogshagil wetland coring.</caption><thead><tr><th>Site</th><th>Latitude</th><th>Longitude</th><th>Elevation (m a. s. l.)</th><th>Surface (ha)</th><th>Sediment Core Length (cm)</th><th>Current Local Vegetation</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Fazilman</td><td>40°33'01"N</td><td>66°35'21"E</td><td>1645</td><td>9.5</td><td>236</td><td>Artemisia spp., Astragalus spp., Centaurea spp., Cousinia spp., Poaceae, and Rhamnus spp., Acantholimon spp.</td></tr><tr><td>Ogshagil</td><td>39°19'44"N</td><td>66°52'57"E</td><td>1810</td><td>0.03</td><td>340</td><td>Cynodon dactylon, Artemisia persica, Carex pachystylis, Juniperus seravschanica and Poaceae.</td></tr></tbody></table>
The two studied areas lie at the contact zone between the Eurasian steppes and the valleys of the central Asian lowlands. In the Bronze Age, they form the northern border of the BMAC territory evidenced up to the Zeravshan valley (Avanesova, 2021). Ongoing archaeological studies in the Nuratau Mountains, as part of a collaborative project between the Samarkand State University and one of the article's authors (Luneau), recorded long term occupation since the Palaeolithic to present days in the proximate vicinity of the Fazilman Lake including Bronze Age sites related to the Andronovo Cultures, such as the yet unpublished Pangat settlement. In a larger area around Lake Ogshagil, several ancient settlements have been recorded, particularly the Chalcolithic-Bronze Age site of Sarazm (Mutin, 2024), the Bronze Age site of Molali (Sverchkov and Boroffka, 2015) and the Final Bronze Age/Early Iron Age site of Dzham (Lhuillier, 2013; Luneau, 2014; Avanesova, 2021).

## 2.2. Age-depth model

A composite sediment core was collected from the centre of each hydrosystem with a Russian corer in 2021. Since no river flows into the wetlands, the sedimentation is presumed to be undisturbed. Samples were stored in plastic tubes and wrapped in plastic paper and then kept under dark and cold conditions (4° C). The age scale was based on radiocarbon dating methods ($^{14}$C). Fifteen samples from Fazilman, and ten from Ogshagil were selected and dated at the LMC14 Laboratory and the Poznań Radiocarbon Laboratory (Table 2). Bayesian age-depth models were generated using R packages ‘Bacon’ v2.5.1 (Blaauw and Christen, 2011) and ‘clam’ v2.6.0 (Blaauw and Christen, 2011). They are shown in Figure 2. These models were constructed using an auto-regressive gamma process. We used the IntCal20. $^{14}$C calibration curve for terrestrial northern hemisphere material (NH1, Reimer et al., 2020). All dates are presented in calibrated years Before Present (hereafter cal. yr BP).

<table><caption>Table 2. Radiocarbon dates from Lake Fazilman and wetland Ogshagil</caption><thead><tr><td>Site</td><td>Sample Depth (cm)</td><td><sup>14</sup>C yr BP</td><td>Age error (year)</td><td>Materials Dated</td><td>Lab. Code</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Fazilman</td><td>10</td><td>-5</td><td>30</td><td>Organic matter</td><td>SacA-66356</td></tr><tr><td>Fazilman</td><td>60</td><td>105</td><td>30</td><td>Organic matter</td><td>SacA-66357</td></tr><tr><td>Fazilman</td><td>92</td><td>170</td><td>30</td><td>Organic matter</td><td>SacA-66358</td></tr><tr><td>Fazilman</td><td>110</td><td>1365</td><td>30</td><td>Biocarbonates</td><td>SacA-66879</td></tr><tr><td>Fazilman</td><td>117</td><td>2080</td><td>30</td><td>Biocarbonates</td><td>SacA-69145</td></tr><tr><td>Fazilman</td><td>135</td><td>4080</td><td>30</td><td>Biocarbonates</td><td>SacA-66359</td></tr><tr><td>Fazilman</td><td>135</td><td>6550</td><td>35</td><td>Bulk sediment</td><td>SacA-66881*</td></tr><tr><td>Fazilman</td><td>137</td><td>5520</td><td>50</td><td>Macro-charcoal</td><td>Poz-173743</td></tr><tr><td>Fazilman</td><td>139</td><td>6150</td><td>30</td><td>Biocarbonates</td><td>SacA-69144</td></tr><tr><td>Fazilman</td><td>145</td><td>6625</td><td>30</td><td>Biocarbonates</td><td>SacA-66877</td></tr><tr><td>Fazilman</td><td>159</td><td>6955</td><td>30</td><td>Biocarbonates</td><td>SacA-66878</td></tr><tr><td>Fazilman</td><td>174</td><td>7665</td><td>30</td><td>Biocarbonates</td><td>SacA-66360</td></tr><tr><td>Fazilman</td><td>174</td><td>8365</td><td>40</td><td>Bulk sediment</td><td>SacA-66880*</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table><tr><td>Fazilman</td><td>200</td><td>8755</td><td>30</td><td>Biocarbonates</td><td>SacA-69143</td></tr><tr><td>Fazilman</td><td>227</td><td>8765</td><td>35</td><td>Biocarbonates</td><td>SacA-66361</td></tr><tr><td>Ogshagil</td><td>43</td><td>585</td><td>30</td><td>Bulk sediment</td><td>SacA-66885</td></tr><tr><td>Ogshagil</td><td>97</td><td>2505</td><td>30</td><td>Macro-charcoal</td><td>SacA-66363</td></tr><tr><td>Ogshagil</td><td>131</td><td>4820</td><td>30</td><td>Bulk sediment</td><td>SacA-69139*</td></tr><tr><td>Ogshagil</td><td>150</td><td>3980</td><td>60</td><td>Bulk sediment</td><td>Poz-167086</td></tr><tr><td>Ogshagil</td><td>166</td><td>4085</td><td>30</td><td>Bulk sediment</td><td>SacA-69137</td></tr><tr><td>Ogshagil</td><td>225</td><td>5640</td><td>35</td><td>Bulk sediment</td><td>SacA-66883</td></tr><tr><td>Ogshagil</td><td>253</td><td>7530</td><td>50</td><td>Bulk sediment</td><td>Poz-167089</td></tr><tr><td>Ogshagil</td><td>292</td><td>9065</td><td>45</td><td>Bulk sediment</td><td>SacA-66882</td></tr><tr><td>Ogshagil</td><td>294</td><td>8015</td><td>35</td><td>Bulk sediment</td><td>SacA-69138</td></tr><tr><td>Ogshagil</td><td>334</td><td>9850</td><td>45</td><td>Bulk sediment</td><td>SacA-66876</td></tr></table>

## 2.3. Charcoal analysis and fire-regime reconstruction

### 2.3.1. Sample Preparation and Charcoal quantification

Sediment cores were continuously sliced every 0.5-1 cm. according to resolution pattern derived from the age-depth models. 1 cm³ subsample was taken from the centre of each slice with a punch to limit contamination risks (Courtney Mustaphi et al., 2015). Each sediment subsample was treated in a tube containing 20 ml sodium hypochlorite (NaClO, bleach), 3 g of sodium metaphosphate (NaPO₃), and 0.5 g of potassium hydroxide (KOH), then agitated for at least 24 hours and heated to activate KOH to facilitate deflocculation and to differentiate charcoal particles from organic matter (Carcaillet et al., 2001). The samples were sieved using a 125 µm mesh and rinsed with clear water (van Bellen et al., 2012; Adolf et al., 2018). This finer sieve size was chosen to capture smaller charcoal particles from grassland fires (Leys et al., 2015; Cromartie et al., 2020), which differ from the larger particles produced by forest fires (Higuera et al., 2007; Ali et al., 2009; Aleman et al., 2013; Oris et al., 2014). Each sieve was examined under a binocular microscope, and charcoal particles were isolated using a brush. These particles were photographed, and their characteristics (e.g., number, surface area, number, geometric parameters) were analysed using ImageJ software (Schneider et al., 2012).

### 2.3.2. Fire regime reconstruction

The age-depth model allows the interpretation of the charcoal records in terms of charcoal accumulation rates, CHAR (mm².cm⁻².year⁻¹), also called burning biomass. Statistical analyses, based on charcoal surface area data, were performed using CharAnalysis software (Ali et al., 2009; Higuera et al., 2010). This approach provides insights into charcoal dispersal and taphonomy, enabling accurate reconstructions of local and regional fire histories (Higuera et al., 2009; Joannin et al., 2014; Barhoumi et al., 2019; Cromartie et al., 2020). Individual CHAR series were interpolated using a constant time resolution based on the median sampling interval of each lake sequence (Higuera et al., 2011). The CHAR series were decomposed into two components: low-frequency background signals (Cbackground)

<footnote>*Age rejected by the age-depth model</footnote>
and high-frequency peaks (C<sub>peak</sub>, or residual series). C<sub>background</sub> was estimated using a robust LOWESS smoothing with a 400-year window width, optimized for the highest Signal-to-Noise Index (SNI) value (cutoff SNI = 3; SNI of 10.56 for Fazilman and 7.79 for Ogshagil) (Kelly et al., 2011; Brossier et al., 2014). C<sub>peak</sub> values were calculated by subtracting C<sub>background</sub> from the interpolated CHAR series (C<sub>interpolated</sub>), which corresponded to a resampled version of the original CHAR data. The C<sub>peak</sub> series were further divided into two subpopulations: (i) noise, representing variability caused by sediment mixing, sampling, and numerical processing; and (ii) fire events (C<sub>fire</sub>), which correspond to fires occurring within a 0–1 km radius of the lake core sites (Lynch et al., 2004; Higuera et al., 2007). A Gaussian mixture model was applied to identify the noise distribution, using a locally defined 99th percentile threshold to distinguish fire events from non-fire events (Higuera et al., 2007). Fire Return Interval (FRI) was calculated by interpolating annually and smoothing the data with a robust LOWESS using a 1,000-year window width to estimate fire frequency (Higuera et al., 2009). The two individual biomass burning series were pooled to create a regional Holocene biomass burning history.

To infer the type of fuel burned (herbaceous vs. woody), we measured the width-to-length (W/L) ratio of each charcoal particle (Aleman et al., 2013). This metric has proven to be a robust proxy for fuel type and has been successfully applied in various environments, including African savannas (Aleman et al., 2013), North American grasslands (Leys et al., 2015), and South Caucasus mountain steppes (Cromartie et al., 2020). Values >0.5 indicate wood-dominated fuel, while values <0.5 correspond to grass-dominated fire regimes, validated against land-cover changes from remote sensing (Aleman et al., 2013). Results were visualized using the R package ggplot2 with loess smoothing for clarity.

## 2.4. Palynological analysis

The sediment core from Lake Fazilman was analysed for pollen and non-pollen palynomorphs (NPPs). Subsamples of 1 cm³ from the centre of the core were sieved with a 200 µm mesh followed by chemically treatment including HCl, KOH, HF, and acetolysis, (Moore et al., 1991). Pollen and NPPs identification and counting were performed using a light microscope at 400x magnification. A minimum of 300 terrestrial pollen grains were counted per sample. This study focuses exclusively on arboreal pollen percentage and spore diversity as key ecological indicators to complement the fire history reconstruction. This targeted approach is motivated by the objective of assessing the nature of fire fuel— whether predominantly woody or herbaceous—in order to interpret the shifts in fire regimes throughout the Holocene. Arboreal pollen percentages provide a proxy for woody vegetation presence in the surrounding landscape, while spore diversity can indicate ecological disturbance and land use intensity. A detailed taxonomic breakdown of pollen groups will be published separately in a forthcoming vegetation-focused study.
## 2.5. Current climate and fire datasets

In order to characterize components of the current fire regime of the study region surrounding the two sampled lakes, fires were extracted from the GlobalFire Atlas database (Andela et al., 2019), which had been derived from daily moderate-resolution (500 m) Collection 6 MCD64A1 burned-area data over the 2003-2016 period. From the Global Fire Atlas database, we extracted the spatial coordinates of each fire, and the Julian date of every MODIS burned pixel for each year across the study region, ranging from longitude 65°E to 68°E and latitude 37°N to 42°N in order to record enough fire events over the 2003-2016 period.

Current climate data were extracted from ERA5 Copernicus Climate Change Service (Muñoz Sabater, 2019), a global atmospheric reanalysis dataset providing hourly estimates of various meteorological parameters at a spatial resolution of approximately 30 km. The same study area as for the modern fire dataset comprises 273 ERA5 grid points and we extracted precipitation and air temperature only over the same period (i.e. 2003–2016). We then calculated the daily total precipitation and the daily mean temperature before computing monthly means.

## 2.6. Holocene climate model

Holocene climate conditions were derived from simulations of the HadCM3B-M1 model, a fully coupled three-dimensional atmosphere-ocean general circulation model without flux adjustment, developed as a variant of the Hadley Centre Climate Model HadCM3 (Valdes et al., 2017). This model, widely used in paleoclimatic studies, performed snapshot equilibrium simulations for each millennium. We extracted monthly mean data for air temperature and total precipitation (climate normals) covering each of the last twelve millennia (centered at 12000, 11000, ..., 2000, and 1000 cal. yr BP), as well as the model control run representing pre-industrial conditions (~1750 AD, equivalent to 0 BP). These data were used to calculate temperature monthly anomalies (as differences) and precipitation monthly anomalies (as relative changes) for each millennium, relative to pre-industrial monthly conditions (e.g. Braconnot, 2004; Hély et al., 2010; Lestienne et al., 2020). These monthly anomalies were then applied to climate normals derived from ERA5 using an inverse-distance weighting approach for downscaling based on the four nearest HadCM3B-M1 grid points to each ERA5 pixel (Hély et al., 2009) covering the study area in Uzbekistan (65°E – 68°E; 37°N – 42°N). Spatial selections were further refined based on longitudes between 66.25°E and 66.75°E for Fazilman and between 66.5°E and 67°E for Ogshagil, and on latitudes between 40°N and 41°N for Fazilman and between 39°N and 40°N for Ogshagil.
## 3. Results

### 3.1. *Observed climate-fire interactions over the last two decades*

Over the past decades (2003–2016), the average temperature follows a bell-shaped curve, gradually rising from Julian day 0 (January, approximately 5°C on average) to reach a peak around Julian day 200 (July), at about 30°C (Figure 2A). It then steadily decreases, dropping to just below 0°C by Julian day 360 (December). Total daily precipitation remains low throughout the year (Figure 2B), but is more substantial at the beginning and end of the Julian calendar, with daily averages around 3 mm (some days reaching up to 15 mm) between Julian days 0–150 and 270–360. The driest period occurs between Julian days 150 (May) and 270 (September), with near-zero average daily precipitation. The number of burned pixels (Figure 2C) shows little variation during wetter periods (Julian days 0–150 and 250–360), although some fire activity is still recorded (ranging between 0 and 1000 pixels). In contrast, burned pixel counts rise significantly between Julian days 150 (May) and 225 (August), peaking at around 5000 burned pixels near Julian day 175 (June).
<figure><img src="image_5.png" /><figcaption>Figure 2: Climate (ERA5) and fire activity (MODIS) between 65°E–68°E and 37°N–42°N from 2003 to 2016.
(A) Daily evolution of mean temperature. (B) Daily evolution of total precipitation. (C) Daily evolution of the number of burned pixels.</figcaption></figure>

3.2. Age-depth models and chronological setting

The sediment core from Lake Fazilman measured 236 cm and span up to 9958 cal. yr BP (Figure 3A).
It had an average temporal resolution of approximately 42 years/cm⁻¹. Its stratigraphy revealed a
transition from clays with discontinuous vivianite layers at the base (236–224 cm) to bluish silty clays
(137–125 cm), followed by grey clays (125–95 cm), and silty clays with organic matter (95–35 cm).
The topmost layer (35–0 cm) was composed primarily of macrophytes, indicating significant aquatic
plant activity. Fossil remains of gastropods (Characeae, Planorbidae), ostracods, and Lymnaeidae were
sporadically present throughout the core. In contrast, the Ogshagil sediment core (Figure 3B), reaching
340 cm and covering up to 11092 cal. yr BP, consisted of oxidized stony-clay at its base (334–313 cm), followed by alternating layers of black clay, gravel-clay, and grey clays rich in minerals. Bluish reduced clay-silts appeared intermittently, interrupted by distinct muscovite layers, with the uppermost section (92–0 cm) comprising brown clay with high organic matter and macrophytes rest content. The Ogshagil wetland had an average temporal resolution of approximately 33 years/cm⁻¹. A notable slowdown in sedimentation was observed at Fazilman between 95 and 135 cm, whereas Ogshagil exhibited a relatively constant accumulation rate throughout the Holocene. The two dates excluded at Fazilman are the two bulk sediment dates taken from the same level as biocarbonates datings, aimed at assessing a potential reservoir effect. The anomalous date from Ogshagil was excluded from the final models (Figure 3B).

<figure><img src="image_6.png" /><figcaption>Figure 3: Age-depth model and lithology. for the cores from (A) Lake Fazilman and (B) Ogshagil wetland. The results of the bacon (dashed blue curve with confidence interval in grey) and clam models (blue curve) show the modelled age-depth extrapolations. Dates in red were removed from the models.</figcaption></figure>
### 3.3. Fazilman fire-regime history

At Lake Fazilman, three distinct fire frequency phases were manually delineated based on observed trends (Figure 4A). The first phase (FAZ-1 and FAZ-2), between 10000 and 7000 cal. yr BP, was characterized by relatively frequent fires, between 5 and 3 fires per 1000 years. The second phase (FAZ-3), between 7000 and 3500 cal. yr BP experienced a lower and decreasing fire frequency, between 3 and 0 fires per 1000 years. Fire frequency increased significantly in the third phase (from FAZ-4 to FAZ-8), between 3500 cal. yr BP to the present, showing fire frequencies of up to 4 fires per 1,000 years. Burning biomass remained very low throughout the Holocene but surged dramatically during phase FAZ-8 (from 500 cal. yr BP to the present).

The overall mean W/L ratio across all samples was 0.44 (Figure 4B), with four distinct phases observed. From 10000 to 7500 cal. yr BP (FAZ-1 and FAZ-2), the mean W/L ratio was 0.48, indicating a predominance of herbaceous fuels, before increasing to 0.54 between 7500 and 3000 cal. yr BP (FAZ-3), indicating woody fuel dominance. It then declined to 0.41 from 3000 cal. yr BP to 1000 cal. yr BP (FAZ-4 to FAZ-7). Finally, during the last phase (FAZ-1), the W/L mean ratio showed a sharp increase over the past 150 years, reaching an average of 0.52 between 150 and 80 cal. yr BP.

### 3.4. Fazilman palynology

The percentage of arboreal pollen (Figure 4C) was low at the beginning of the record (fluctuating around 10%) and gradually increased, reaching 35% at 6700 cal. yr BP (FAZ-3). After that, it continuously declined until 4500 cal. yr BP (FAZ-4), stabilizing around 10%, and remained at this level, fluctuating between 5% and 10% until the present. Spore diversity remained very low, or nearly absent, throughout the first half of the Holocene, up until 4200 cal. yr BP (FAZ-1 to FAZ-4). After that, it fluctuated between 5% and 10% until approximately 500 cal. yr BP (FAZ-4 to FAZ-8). From that point onward, it increased rapidly and continuously, reaching 35% in the present day.
<figure><img src="image_7.png" /></figure>

Figure 4: (A) Fazilman loess smoothed fire frequency (navy blue line), fire events (flame symbols) and burning biomass (turquoise line). (B) Fazilman W/L ratio (raw data represented by blue dots, loess smoothed curve shown as a blue line, with a 90% confidence interval displayed as a shaded area). (C) Fazilman percentage of arboreal pollen taxa (raw data represented by green dots, loess-smoothed curve shown as a green line) and spore diversity (raw data represented by brown dots, loess-smoothed curve shown as a brown line). Ages are given in cal. yr BP and in Before Common Era (BCE). The cultural phases of the Chalcolithic, the Bronze Age, and the BMAC are indicated.
### 3.4. Ogshagil fire-regime history

In contrast to Fazilman, the fire regime at Ogshagil wetland exhibited greater continuity over time, with consistently high fire frequencies throughout the mid-Holocene (Figure 5A). Fire frequency showed a significant increase during the first phase (OG-1), between 12000 and 8500 cal. yr BP, rising from 2 to 4 fires per 1,000 years. This was followed by a decline in fire activity and frequency over the next 1000 years (OG-2), reaching 2.5 fires per 1,000 years at 7300 cal. yr BP. Subsequently, fire frequency increased again during phase OG-3, peaking at 5 fires per 1000 years around 5,200 cal. yr BP, and remained relatively stable at approximately 4.5 fires per 1,000 years from 5200 to 2200 cal. yr BP (OG-4 to OG-6). The late Holocene was characterized by a lower fire frequency, ranging between 3 and 4 fires per 1000 years from 2000 cal. yr BP to the present (OG-7 to OG-9). Burning biomass remained very low throughout the Holocene but surged dramatically during phase OG-8 and OG-9 (from 1000 cal. yr BP to the present).

At Ogshagil, the overall mean W/L ratio was higher than Fazilman, at 0.52, with notable fluctuations across different periods (Figure 5B). Between 12000 and 5100 cal. yr BP (OG-1 to OG-3), the ratio exceeded 0.5, indicating woody fuel dominance, with peaks around 9000, 8000 and 5500 cal. yr BP, followed by a rapid decline over 500 years. From 5500 cal. yr BP (OG-4), the ratio dropped, reaching a minimum at 4300 cal. yr BP (W/L around 0.35), indicating a predominance of herbaceous fuels, before rising again. Between 4000 and 1500 cal. yr BP (OG-5 to OG-7), the ratio stayed above the threshold, indicating a renewed dominance of woody fuel. After 1500 cal. yr BP (OG-8 and OG-9), herbaceous fuels dominated, with two notable peaks around 1100 and 500 cal. yr BP.
<figure><img src="image_8.png" /><figcaption>Figure 5: (A) Ogshagil loess smoothed fire frequency (forest green line), fire events (flame) and burning biomass (khaki green line). (B) Ogshagil W/L ratio (raw data represented by green dots, loess smoothed curve shown as a green line, with a 90% confidence interval displayed as a shaded area). Ages are given in cal. yr BP and in Before Common Era (BCE). The cultural phases of the Chalcolithic, the Bronze Age, and the BMAC are indicated.</figcaption></figure>

# 4. Interpretation and discussion

## 4.1. Chronology

The age model for the Fazilman site is based on bio-carbonate, macro-charcoal, and organic matter samples. The two bulk sediment samples were excluded from the model due to inconsistencies and were not integrated into the final chronology. However, the model remains robust and reliable, as it primarily relies on macrofossils and generally provide more accurate radiocarbon ages than bulk sediment, being less affected by residence time effects and reworking (Blaauw and Christen, 2011; Lougheed and Obrochta, 2019; Zander et al., 2020). Additionally, the number of dated samples (13 over 10,000 years) ensures a well-constrained age-depth relationship, reinforcing confidence in the chronology. With an average resolution of ~42 years/cm, the temporal framework at Fazilman allows the detection of multi-
centennial to millennial trends, although some uncertainty remains regarding finer-scale temporal
alignment. Radiocarbon calibration errors (typically ±30 to ±60 years) and the ~730-year average
spacing between dates limit the ability to precisely align fire regime changes with short-lived cultural
transitions. Consequently, comparisons between environmental and archaeological chronologies are
cautiously interpreted at a regional scale. Although variations in sedimentation rates could introduce
uncertainties, fire regime analysis was conducted under the assumption of constant sedimentation rates,
which helps minimize potential biases linked to changes in sediment accumulation (Higuera et al.,
2010). This methodological choice is particularly relevant in reducing the impact of sedimentation
slowdown on fire frequency reconstructions, ensuring a more accurate interpretation of past fire
dynamics at the site.

At Ogshagil, the age model relies on bulk sediment and a single macro-charcoal sample, as no macro-
remains were found in the sequence. The only rejected date, derived from bulk sediment, was older than
the modelled chronology, likely due to a reservoir effect (Lacourse and Gajewski, 2020). Since bulk
sediment was the only available material apart from macro-charcoal, the model incorporates these
constraints while acknowledging potential biases from reworked or pre-aged organic matter. The
resulting chronology is nevertheless coherent, with relatively consistent sedimentation throughout the
core and an average resolution of ~33 years/cm. As at Fazilman, the chronological model provides
sufficient resolution for Holocene-scale analyses but is not intended to resolve sub-centennial events.

## 4.2. Distinctive features of the local fire regime

### 4.2.1. Wetland Ogshagil

The fire regime at Ogshagil seems to be closely linked to vegetation dynamics throughout the Holocene, with continuous fire events reflecting shifts between woodland and steppe landscapes (Figure 6A, B and D). Periods of high W/L ratio (above 0.5, and therefore potentially more tree cover), notably between 9900 and 8000 cal. yr BP; 6500 to 5000 and again from 3100 to 1500 cal. yr BP, correspond to higher fire frequencies (reaching up to 5 fires per 1000 years) likely due to the greater availability of woody biomass as fuel. Conversely, during the phases when the W/L ratio was below 0.5, indicating a predominantly herbaceous fuel source, and therefore a more open landscape, such as between 5000 and 3500 cal. yr BP and from 2000 cal. yr BP to the present, fire frequency was lower (declining to a minimum of 2 fires per 1000 years around 3000 cal. yr BP), highlighting the differing fire conductivity and biomass availability between steppe and forest ecosystems. Similar inverse relationships between fuel types and fire activity have also been observed in the Zarishat fen and Shenkani mire (Armenia), where high Cyperaceae percentages during arid phases correspond with reduced fire signals (Joannin et al., 2014; Cromartie et al., 2020). This W/L ratio trends suggest a strong link between fire frequency and woody vegetation, with phases of herbaceous dominance associated with reduced fire activity as demonstrated in Central African Republic (Aleman et al., 2013). However, a contrasting case is found
in southern Kyrgyzstan at Lake Kichikol, where *Juniperus* expansion occurred during the mid-Holocene, yet fire accumulation rates remained low (Beer et al., 2007; Beer and Tinner, 2008), implying climate as a dominant constraint on fire propagation despite fuel availability. Since 500 cal. yr BP, a notable shift has been observed, with herbaceous plants becoming the primary fire fuel, indicating significant ecological changes to a more open landscape.

### 4.2.2. Lake Fazilman

Given its complex sedimentation pattern, the interpretation of the Fazilman fire history should be approached with caution. However, by assuming a constant sedimentation rate, some general trends can still be identified. In this context, the fire history at Lake Fazilman reveals distinct phases of fire frequency and vegetation changes throughout the Holocene, s highlighting notable differences compared to Ogshagil. Vegetation composition, as tentatively inferred from the W/L ratio, may reflect shifts between herbaceous- and woody-dominated fuel types. However, given the indirect nature of this proxy, these interpretations should be considered with caution. If the W/L ratio reliably reflects fuel type, this could suggest that fire frequency at Fazilman was generally higher during periods when herbaceous vegetation was dominant, and lower during phases marked by increased arboreal presence, potentially due to differences in fuel continuity, moisture content, or ignition susceptibility (Figure 6A and D). This interpretation is further supported by the dynamics of arboreal pollen taxa identified in the Fazilman record. High percentages of arboreal pollen coincide with phases where the W/L ratio exceeds 0.5, indicating periods of increased woody vegetation cover. Conversely, phases of low arboreal pollen percentages align with periods when the W/L ratio falls below 0.5, suggesting a landscape dominated by herbaceous vegetation. During the early Holocene (10000 – 7500 cal. yr BP), fire frequency was relatively high at Fazilman, averaging 4 fires per 1000 years, coinciding with a W/L ratio mainly below 0.5, indicating an herbaceous fuel source corresponding to an open steppe landscape. Subsequently, between 7500 and 5000 cal. yr BP, fire frequency at Fazilman declined from 0 to 1 fire per 1000 years, corresponding with an increase in woody fuel source and indicating a transition to a forest-steppe environment under likely wetter climate conditions. Between 5000 and 3200 cal. yr BP, fire frequency increased to 3 fires per 1,000 years around 4000 cal. yr BP, then to 4 fires per 1000 years around 2000 cal. yr BP, associated to a low W/L ratio and AP percentage. This trend is mirrored in the Issyk-Kul record (Kyrgyzstan), where declining fire indicators despite forested vegetation suggest anthropogenic input as a potential driver of charcoal deposition (Beer et al., 2008). A notable shift occurred around 500 cal. yr BP, when both the W/L ratio and fire frequency increased, indicating the predominance of woody plants as the primary fuel source and suggesting a shift towards more intense fires. However, the continued low percentages of arboreal pollen imply that this burned woody material may not have originated from locally growing trees, but rather from exogenous sources—such as firewood transported from nearby valleys by human groups for domestic or pastoral use.
4.2.3. Role of local ecological conditions

These findings highlight the contrasting fire regimes and vegetation responses at the two sites, with fires at Fazilman predominantly associated with herbaceous fuel sources, whereas at Ogshagil, they are linked to more woody vegetation. This contrast suggests that local environmental factors, such as microclimatic conditions and vegetation composition, played a dominant role in shaping fire regimes until around 5000 cal. yr BP, mainly since the two sites locate at different altitudes. Biomass accumulation likely occurred during the spring growing season, which coincides with the period of highest precipitation, directly influencing fuel availability. A major contributing factor to these differences is vegetation composition. At present, Ogshagil features a greater abundance of forested vegetation, including *Juniperus seravschanica* and *J. semiglobosa* surrounding the wetland, whereas only herbs and shrubs (primarily *Rhamnus* spp.) are observed around Lake Fazilman. This contrast suggests that long-term differences in local environmental conditions, such as generally higher precipitation levels at Ogshagil, may have supported more woody vegetation in its catchment over time.

The vegetation structure of the Pamir-Alai region falls within a terminological debate. While ‘forest-steppe’ is widely used (Erdős et al., 2018) to describe mosaic landscapes of trees and grasslands, this term is also associated with the taiga-steppe transition in Kazakhstan and Mongolia. In our study area, the vegetation aligns closely with a ‘steppe-open woodland ecotone,’ characterized by semi-arid grasslands interspersed with sparse drought-adapted woodlands, mainly *Juniperus* spp. (Nowak et al., 2016, 2020). To ensure clarity and consistency, we follow Erdős et al. (2018) in using ‘forest-steppe,’ while acknowledging that the vegetation in our study area may also align with the concept of a ‘steppe-open woodland ecotone’.

The differences observed in the W/L ratio between the two sites could reflect variations in vegetation structure and composition, which, in turn, could reflect the availability and type of biomass fueling the fires, ultimately impacting charcoal production and accumulation. In addition to vegetation, topographic differences between the two sites may have played a crucial role in shaping fire regimes (i.e. altitude, slope and watershed size). Variations in elevation, exposure, and slope influence local microclimates and moisture levels, which can significantly affect fire frequency and intensity (Iniguez et al., 2008; Merschel et al., 2018). Furthermore, the location of each lake influences its capacity to record fire events. Lakes situated in topographic depressions tend to accumulate more charcoal from regional fires due to increased airborne particle deposition, whereas lakes positioned on plateaus primarily capture local fire signals, as they are less affected by distant charcoal transport due to differences in watershed size, drainage patterns, and sedimentation dynamics (Oris et al., 2014). Consequently, Ogshagil, situated at the bottom of a small valley enclosed by surrounding relief, likely serves as a natural catchment area even if its watershed is reduced, accumulating airborne charcoal particles transported from the surrounding landscape. In contrast, Fazilman, located on an elevated windy plateau slightly sloped, may
have a more localized charcoal influx, reflecting predominantly nearby fire events rather than regional
fire signals.

These site-specific observations can also be contextualized by examining modern fire-climate dynamics
in the region. An analysis of recent meteorological data (2000–2016) shows that most precipitation in
southern Uzbekistan occurs during spring (Julian days 0–150) and autumn (days 270–360), with daily
precipitation occasionally reaching 15 mm. Conversely, the summer period (days 150–270) is marked
by near-zero precipitation and average temperatures exceeding 30°C. This dry and hot window coincides
with peak fire activity, as measured by burned pixels (Figure 2), suggesting a clear seasonal pattern
where accumulated spring biomass becomes highly flammable during summer. This seasonal dynamic
mirrors the long-term paleoenvironmental processes inferred from our charcoal and W/L ratio data,
underlining the persistent influence of climate seasonality on fire regimes.

4.3. *Climatic drivers at the regional scale*

The westerlies, originating from the Atlantic and crossing Europe, brought winter precipitation to
Middle Asia, where a long-term drying trend has been observed in stalagmite record from Kyrgyzstan
(Tan et al., 2024). In contrast, Eastern Central Asia (ECA) experienced increasing precipitation, driven
primarily by summer rainfall since the middle Holocene from δ¹⁸O and stalagmite records (Tan et al.,
2024). The Siberian High further modulated the climate by altering monsoon penetration and influencing
precipitation patterns in MA (Panagiotopoulos et al., 2005; Fan et al., 2023; Chen et al., 2024; Li and
Zhu, 2024). The Caucasus region, particularly in Armenia (pollen records from Zarishat Fen and
Shenkani mire) and Georgia, experienced a similar transition from arid Early Holocene, to more humid
conditions in themid-Holocene driven by shifts in the strength of the westerlies, North Atlantic
circulation, and Mediterranean moisture supply (Messager et al., 2013; Connor and Kvavadze, 2014;
Joannin et al., 2014; Cromartie et al., 2020; Leroy et al., 2023).

Between 12000 and 8000 cal. yr BP, MA experienced predominantly arid conditions, as evidenced by
palynological studies from Armenia (Joannin et al., 2014; Cromartie et al., 2020), the Caspian (Chen et
al., 2008; Leroy et al., 2014) and Aral Seas (Chen et al., 2008). During the early Holocene (11,000–
8500 cal. yr BP), both the modelled precipitation (Fig. 6G) and regional moisture index (Fig. 6I) indicate
low humidity levels. Despite relatively low biomass availability under such dry conditions, fire
frequency remained high (Fig. 6A), likely due to the increased flammability of sparse vegetation and a
mosaic of dry grasslands, as confirmed by low arboreal pollen percentages (Fig. 6E). The period from
around 8500 to 5000 cal. yr BP, marked by a sharp rise in the regional moisture index (from ~0.5 to 2.5;
Fig. 6I) and a concomitant increase in modelled precipitation (Fig. 6G), corresponds to a humid mid-
Holocene interval. This is reflected in higher tree cover (Fig. 6E), elevated W/L ratios (Fig. 6D), and a
decrease in fire frequency, suggesting more stable, less fire-prone ecosystems. However, between 5000
and 3000 cal. yr BP, a gradual decline in both the regional moisture index and precipitation (Fig. 6G–I)
points to increasing aridity, paralleled by a drop in tree pollen percentages and W/L ratio, and a progressive rise in fire activity (Fig. 6A–E). At Lake Fazilman, grasslands dominated the landscape, but arboreal taxa gradually increased, reaching around 35% of the pollen signal by 8000 cal. yr BP, suggesting a progressive expansion of woody vegetation during the mid-Holocene humid interval, even as fire activity persisted (Figure 6E). This coexistence of increasing biomass and recurrent fires may reflect alternating sub-phases of moisture availability, wetter conditions fostering vegetation growth, followed by drier periods that rendered accumulated biomass highly flammable. In Armenia, similar fire regimes linked to desert-steppe expansion were observed, reinforcing the interpretation of widespread arid conditions across the region (Joannin et al., 2014; Leroy et al., 2016; Cromartie et al., 2020). A gradual climatic shift towards increased humidity began around 8000 cal. yr BP, driven by intensified temperature and winter insolation gradients that enhanced moisture transport via the westerlies in Uzbekistan (as inferred from magnetic susceptibility on Rudak loess) (Zhang et al., 2020). This conclusion is also supported by the increase of arboreal pollen around 8000 cal. yr BP in Fazilman. The presence of few conifer (likely *Juniperus* spp.) stomata and angiosperm-undetermined macro-charcoal in the sediment attests a closer presence of woodland in Lake Fazilman watershed. Similar patterns of woodland expansion during the early to mid-Holocene have been observed in the Tien Shan (Beer et al., 2007; Beer and Tinner, 2008) where *Juniperus* and *Picea* forests developed around Caucasian lakes (e.g. Kichikol and Karakol) between 6000 and 4000 cal. yr BP, often under wetter conditions and with low fire frequencies (Joannin et al., 2014) and around the Caspian Sea (Leroy et al., 2014), reflecting a broader regional trend of increased humidity and forest development.

From 8000 to 5000 cal. yr BP, increased rainfall supported the expansion of steppe biomes and forest-steppe mosaics, as well as a decline in fire frequency around Lake Fazilman possibly due to periods of reduced fuel dryness and increased woody biomass. Between 7500 and 5800 cal. yr BP, the landscape remained characterized by a forest-steppe, resulting in an increased fire activity between 7500 and 6500 cal. yr BP around Ogshagil.

From 5000 to 3000 cal. yr BP, the region experienced a gradual return to arid conditions, as shown by declining precipitation and the re-expansion of desert steppe environments documented in the Caspian and Aral Seas, Uzbekistan (Tonnel'naya cave, see Figure 1 et Figure 6H) and Armenia (Zarishat fen) (Boomer et al., 2000; Joannin et al., 2014; Leroy et al., 2014; Cheng et al., 2016; Cromartie et al., 2020). Pollen records also indicate the dominance of dry steppe vegetation over the past 5600 cal. yr BP, in Kyrgyzstan (Issyk kul) (Leroy and Giralt, 2021). A severe drought, occurred in Arid Central Asia between 5800 and 5100 cal. yr BP, reaching a minimum around 5300 cal. yr BP (Tan et al., 2021). Similar events were recorded in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan (Ricketts et al., 2001; Endo et al., 2012; Ran and Feng, 2014) and also in Armenia (Lake Sevan) (Robles et al., 2022), attributed to a northward redirection of the westerlies. At Ogshagil, the landscape may have transitioned to a more open steppe mosaic, potentially resulting in increased soil erosion (observed in the core sediment) and reduced fire events due to lower biomass availability. A subsequent drought between 4300 and 4000 cal. yr BP
further reinforced arid conditions, followed by episodic increases in precipitation around 3900 – 3600 and 3200 – 3000 cal. yr BP (Tan et al., 2021).

Between 3500 and 1700 cal. yr BP, a wetter phase may have allowed for the resurgence of woody vegetation at Ogshagil, possibly leading to increased primary productivity and fire activity. However, a shift towards drier conditions occurred in the late Holocene, influenced by climate fluctuations such as the Medieval Climate Optimum (1000 to 700 cal. yr BP) and the Little Ice Age (650 to 150 cal. yr BP). Studies by Fohlmeister et al. (2017) and Tan et al. (2024) indicate that precipitation increased during the Medieval Climate Optimum and subsequently decreased during the Little Ice Age, exacerbating arid conditions in MA.

Overall, our findings outline a clear climatic trajectory: an arid early Holocene with frequent grassland (Fazilman) and forest-steppe (Ogshagil) fires, a wetter mid-Holocene characterized by woody vegetation and reduced fire activity around Lake Fazilman, and a late Holocene marked by increased aridity and renewed fire events (Figure 6A).

## 4.4 From natural to anthropogenic fires: the role of pastoralism since the Bronze Age

Throughout the Holocene, climatic fluctuations have played a pivotal role in shaping human societies in Arid Central Asia, influencing settlement patterns, subsistence strategies, and cultural exchanges (Luneau, 2019; Yang et al., 2019; Fouache et al., 2020; Tan et al., 2021). On the Iranian Plateau, in the Zagros Mountains, Matthews (2016) report that the spread of fire and its intensification were tied to the emergence of early agricultural communities, suggesting that the transition from wild to cultivated landscapes increased biomass combustibility and human ignition frequency. Similarly, Gu et al., (2022) observed fire peaks in northern Iran's coastal wetlands linked with shifts in sea level and human settlement. These analogues confirm a regional pattern in which Holocene fire regimes were shaped by the complex interplay of climate, vegetation, and human activities. Until approximately 7000 cal. yr BP, human settlements were concentrated not only along rivers, in oases, where irrigation facilitated agricultural expansion and demographic growth, but also in mountainous areas (Baumer, 2012). However, the mega-drought between 5820 and 5180 cal. yr BP (Tan et al., 2021) profoundly altered this landscape by reducing water availability and limiting the growth of precipitation-dependent grasslands (Li et al., 2020). This climatic event led to a decline in Chalcolithic archaeological sites after 6000 cal. yr BP, compelling populations to adapt by focusing on oasis agriculture and reducing mobility during arid phases (Tan et al., 2021).

From the Bronze Age onwards, fire regimes at both study sites exhibited strikingly similar and synchronous trends, suggesting a significant shift in fire dynamics across the region. This pattern indicates that the growing influence of pastoral societies on the landscape became the dominant driver of fire activity, surpassing the effects of climate. The widespread adoption of agro-pastoral practices, including controlled burning for land clearing and pasture management, likely played a pivotal role in shaping the fire regime. The synchronicity observed between Fazilman and Ogshagil (even if the two
hydrosystems are located at different elevations and slopes) supports the idea that fires during this period were primarily of anthropogenic origin, reflecting the extensive and concomitant impact of human activities on the environment.

Between 4000 and 3000 cal. yr BP, increased precipitation facilitated the expansion of steppe-forest ecosystems, supporting agricultural and pastoral activities in valleys and oases, in the Altai Mountains (Zhou et al., 2020). This period coincided with the presence of the Bronze Age Oxus Civilization and the Handmade Painted Cultures of the Early Iron Age, in the fertile lowlands of southern Uzbekistan (Lhuillier et al., 2013; Lyonnet and Dubova, 2021). Recent archaeological surveys in the vicinity of Lake Fazilman have revealed evidence of sustained and dense human occupation, particularly during the Bronze Age (Luneau and Avanesova, 2019). At the supraregional scale, archaeological surveys in the Zeravshan and the Surkhan Darya valleys documented high settlement density, irrigation-based agriculture, and extensive intra- and interregional exchange networks in ancient periods (Rapin, 2005; Stride et al., 2009; Mantellini et al., 2016; Rante, 2019; Stančo and Tušlová, 2019; Avanesova, 2020). Enhanced water availability sustained agro-pastoral practices, especially in the valleys (Tan et al., 2021). Archaeobotanical evidence indicates that advanced agricultural practices were in place as early as the Bronze Age in valley settlements in Uzbekistan (Tengberg, 2013).

Although natural fire activity was likely lower during this humid phase, archaeological evidences indicate that anthropogenic fire remained a key practice for land management, particularly for maintaining open grazing areas and clearing fields for cultivation (Aleman et al., 2013; Cromartie et al., 2020). The decline of the BMAC around 3650-3450 cal. yr BP (Luneau, 2021), marked a shift in fire activity. This is marked in the Fazilman and Ogshagil fire frequency and null fungal spore abundances (Figure 6E). This turning point coincides with evidence of urban contraction, transformation of settlement patterns, and disruption of long-distance exchange networks, possibly triggered by growing environmental stress (Lhuillier, 2019; Luneau, 2019). As aridification intensified, fire events increased, accelerating the transformation of steppe-forest environments into open dry grasslands. The rise in fire activity accompanied various major social and cultural transformations, including shifts in material culture and social organization, during the final phase of the Oxus civilization (3650 to 3450 cal. yr BP). As climatic conditions became drier, the expansion of pastoralism within the economies of Central Asian communities during the mid-second millennium BCE – which likely contributed to the broader spread of steppe influences and the gradual decline of Oxus cultural traits – offers a compelling hypothesis (Cattani et al., 2008; Luneau, 2014; Cerasetti et al., 2018; Luneau, 2021).

At the end of the 5th millennium BP and in the first half of the 4th millennium BP, “steppe” groups, including the Andronovo cultural complex, expanded southward into Central Asia. Archaeological evidence shows the progressive appearance of funerary practices, metal and ceramic objects and styles associated with the Andronovo pastoral communities across the piedmonts and valleys of southern Uzbekistan (Kuz’mina, 2008; Avanesova, 2022). These groups relayed primarily on livestock mobility and extensive pasture management. The use of fire as a landscape management tool, especially for
enhancing pasture quality and clearing shrubland, is consistent with pastoral practices observed ethnographically and archaeologically in Eurasian steppe contexts (Kohl, 2007; Ventresca Miller et al., 2020). The synchronous increase in fire frequency at both Fazilman and Ogshagil during this period strongly suggests a regional signal linked to these expanding anthropogenic pressures. The cumulative impact of such practices likely accelerated the degradation of woody vegetation and increased landscape flammability. These dynamics, tied to shifting cultural models and mobility patterns, underscore the transformative role of pastoral land use strategies in shaping fire regimes during the Bronze and Iron Ages (Spengler, 2020).

Between 2500 and 1500 cal. yr BP, fire frequency declined simultaneously at both sites, coinciding with major socio-political changes in the region. Around the 6th century BCE (approximately 2600 cal. yr BP), the regions of Sogdiana and Bactria - centered around present-day Samarkand and Bukhara - were incorporated into the Achaemenid Persian Empire. The inhabitants of the satrapies of Bactria and Sogdiana, prospered through irrigation-based agriculture and trade, developing influential urban centers. Between the 3rd century BCE and the 2nd century CE (approximately 2300 to 1800 cal. yr BP), Sogdiana and Bactria fell under the influence of the Yuezhi, Scythians, Parthians, and the Buddhist Kushan Empire, with Samarkand emerging as a major Silk Road hub (Liu, 2001; Lazzerini, 2005). The decline in fire activity during this period may be attributed to the expansion of irrigation systems, intensified agricultural practices, and urbanization, which reduced the need for widespread burning. Around 1500 cal. yr BP, fire activity experienced a renewed increase, likely influenced by evolving socio-economic dynamics, population growth, and shifts in land use associated with the predominantly pastoral Hephthalites (Wiesehöfer and Rollinger, 2020). Their dependence on extensive grazing practices may have contributed to more frequent fires, as they likely employed fire to clear land from spiny-cushion vegetation, promote pasture regeneration, and manage their herds across the landscape (Gintzburger et al., 2003). This surge in fire activity aligns with an observed increase in the diversity of dung fungal spore taxa in the sedimentary record of Lake Fazilman, suggesting a rise in population density during this period. The broader variety of spores may reflect intensified human activity, including heightened grazing pressure, agricultural expansion, and landscape modifications, pointing to an increased anthropogenic impact on the local environment. This impact was significantly amplified during the Soviet period, when large-scale irrigation for cotton monoculture and population relocations transformed Uzbekistan's landscapes, leading to soil salinization, biodiversity loss, and the desiccation of the Aral Sea (Ataniyazova, 2003; Peterson, 2016; Annayeva, 2019).

However, the expansion of intensive grazing likely reduced fire activity compared to that observed during the Bronze Age by decreasing the local ground biomass available for combustion (Zhang et al., 2021), which appears to coincide with the fact that in the last 500 years, macro-charcoal analyses from Fazilman and Ogshagil reveal a significant increase in woody plant combustion. This trend is particularly striking given the current arid steppe climate around Fazilman, where herbaceous vegetation is currently dominant. Despite these conditions, charcoal records indicate the burning of woody material
within a few kilometers of the lake, aligning with the broader regional surge in burning biomass. Modern archaeological findings, including evidence of pastoral settlements in the Nuratau Mountains (Luneau et al., 2024), suggest that pastoral communities may have transported firewood from lower valleys or from northern slope open woodlands of *Rhamnus* spp. to their seasonal dwellings, contributing to the observed fire activity. Whether driven by intensified pastoral land use or the deliberate transportation of firewood, these findings highlight the profound and lasting influence of human activity on regional fire regimes. Further investigations, such as pollen analyses from Fazilman and Ogshagil, will provide deeper insights into Uzbekistan's paleoenvironmental and climatic history, offering a clearer understanding of past ecosystem responses and resilience to both natural and anthropogenic pressures.
<figure><img src="image_9.png" /></figure>

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<figure><img src="image_11.png" /></figure>

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Figure 6: (A) Loess-smoothed fire frequencies in Uzbekistan. (B) Loess-smoothed regional burning biomass index in Uzbekistan (90 % confidence interval shown in the grey shaded area). (C) Middle-low elevation Central Asia fire activity from Zhang et al. (2022). (D) Loess-smoothed W/L ratio in Uzbekistan. (E) Percentage of arboreal pollen taxa (raw data represented by green dots, loess-smoothed curve shown as a green line) and spore diversity (raw data represented by brown dots, loess-smoothed curve shown as a brown line) recorded at Fazilman. (F) Reconstructed mean summer (June to September) temperatures over the past 12,000 years for the regions surrounding Lake Fazilman (66.25°E–66.75°E; 40°N–41°N) and Ogshagil (66.5°E–67°E; 39°N–40°N), based on HadCM3B-M1 simulations. (G) Reconstructed total summer (June to September) precipitation totals for the same regions and time span, also derived from HadCM3B-M1 simulations. (H) Uzbekistan (Tonnel'naya cave) d18O hydroclimatic variations from Cheng et al. (2016). (I) Arid Central Asia average moisture index from Chen et al. (2008).

**5. Conclusions**

This study provides a comprehensive reconstruction of Holocene fire regimes in the foothills of the Pamir-Alai Range, highlighting the interplay between climatic fluctuations, vegetation dynamics, and human activities over the past 11000 years. Our findings demonstrate that early and mid-Holocene fire activity was primarily driven by climate, with high fire frequencies corresponding to arid phases. Then, the influence of anthropogenic activities on fire became significant around 4000 – 3000 cal. yr BP, as synchronized fire patterns at both study sites occurred, coinciding with the expansion of agro-pastoral practices linked to the Oxus Civilization, the Andronovo cultures and the Handmade Painted Ware Cultures. The subsequent decline in fire activity between 2500 and 1500 cal. yr BP reflects the influence of irrigation-based agricultural societies, whereas the renewed increase from 1500 cal. yr BP onward aligns with the resurgence of pastoralism, emphasizing the lasting impact of human land use on fire dynamics. The past 500 years have witnessed a rise in fire activity and woody plant combustion, likely driven by intensified pastoral land use and the transportation of firewood to seasonal settlements. This suggests that even in arid environments with limited natural biomass, human activities can significantly alter fire regimes, underscoring the importance of historical land-use practices in shaping modern landscapes.

Understanding these long-term patterns is crucial for informing current fire management and land-use policies in Central Asia, especially as the region faces increasing climate variability, land degradation, and expanding pastoralism. Historical fire regime reconstructions offer a baseline to assess the resilience of steppe ecosystems and to anticipate future fire risk under changing socio-environmental pressures.

Despite these insights, important questions remain regarding the broader ecological impacts of past fire regimes and their interaction with vegetation and climate change in the region. Palynological and geochemical analyses will provide further insights into past vegetation dynamics, human-environment interactions and local climate dynamics. Additionally, expanding the study to include new sedimentary
archives across Central Asia will enhance our understanding of regional fire patterns and their
relationship to broader climatic and cultural transformations.

<figure><img src="image_18.png" /></figure>
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**Declaration of Interest Statement**

The authors declare no competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have influenced the work reported in this paper.

This research was funded, in whole or in part, by the French National Research Agency (ANR) under Grant ANR-22-CE27-0018-02 and Grant ANR-20-FRAL-0006. A CC-BY public copyright license has been applied by the authors to the present document and will be applied to all subsequent versions up to the Author Accepted Manuscript, in accordance with the grant's open access conditions.