System for allocating advertising inventory in a unified marketplace

An advertisement impression distribution system includes a data processing system operable to generate an allocation plan for serving advertisement impressions. The allocation plan allocates a first portion of advertisement impressions to satisfy guaranteed demand and a second portion of advertisement impressions to satisfy non-guaranteed demand. The data processing system includes an optimizer to establish a relationship between the first portion and the second portion. The relationship defines a range of possible proportions of allocation of the first portion and the second portion. The optimizer generates indicia in accordance with maximizing guaranteed demand fairness or representativeness, maximizing non-guaranteed revenue, and minimizing under-delivery penalties, where the indicia indentifies a determined proportion of the first portion to serve and a determined proportion of the second portion to serve. The data processing system outputs the allocation plan including the indicia to control serving of the advertisement impressions in the determined proportions.

TECHNICAL FIELD

The present description relates generally to a system and method, generally referred to as a system, for providing display advertising optimization model including guaranteed demand fairness or representativeness, non-guaranteed revenue, and under-delivery penalties.

BACKGROUND

A market exists for the distribution of advertising and other information over data communications and entertainment networks. A non-limiting example is insertion of advertising copy supplied by advertisers, for appearance on web pages content offered by media distributors such as news and information services, internet service providers, and suppliers of products related to the advertiser's products or services.

SUMMARY

A system for distributing advertisement impressions includes a data processing system operable to generate an allocation plan for serving advertisement impressions. The allocation plan allocates a first portion of advertisement impressions to satisfy guaranteed demand and a second portion of advertisement impressions to satisfy non-guaranteed demand. The data processing system includes an optimizer, the optimizer to establish a relationship between the first portion of advertisement impressions and the second portion of advertisement impressions, the relationship defining a range of possible proportions of allocation of the first portion of advertisement impressions and the second portion of advertisement impressions. The optimizer generates indicia in accordance with maximizing guaranteed demand fairness or representativeness, maximizing non-guaranteed revenue, and minimizing under-delivery penalties, where the indicia identify a determined proportion of the first portion of advertisement impressions to serve and a determined proportion of the second portion of advertisement impressions to serve. The data processing system outputs the allocation plan including the indicia to control serving of the advertisement impressions in the determined proportions.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION

A supply of ad impression opportunities preferably comprises opportunities to insert on-line advertising (“ad impressions”), such as inserting variable banner ads into web pages that are transmitted to users. The ads can be allocated selectively, based on characteristics of the user or typical users of the particular web page, or otherwise selected to match user and content information, location, timing and other criteria to advertiser specifications, for targeting the ads to potential customers.

The allocation of increments of a supply of advertisements to meet demand may be optimized in a market for use of advertising opportunities (ad impressions) by establishing a proportion of revenue and/or quantity to be shared between distinct categories of demand with potentially different marginal values. A programmable technique divides all allocations that are projected and later the allocations that actually arise, between a category of pre-committed increments, typically contractually committed ad insertion opportunities with predetermined characteristics (e.g., guaranteed delivery (GD) of ads contracts), and a category of spot sales, such as via ad exchange auctions (e.g., non-guaranteed delivery (NGD) delivery of ads). Under-delivery of ad impressions to satisfy GD contracts is considered, as well as both buying and selling ad impressions in the marketplace, and over-delivery and under-delivery are both modeled.

FIG. 1provides a simplified view of a network environment100for serving advertisement impressions, factoring both guaranteed demand and non-guaranteed demand, in an optimized way. Not all of the depicted components may be required, however, and some implementations may include additional components not shown in the figure. Variations in the arrangement and type of the components may be made without departing from the spirit or scope of the claims as set forth herein. Additional, different or fewer components may be provided.

The network environment100may include an administrator110and one or more users120A-N with access to one or more networks130,135, and one or more web applications, standalone applications, mobile applications115,125A-N, which may collectively be referred to as client applications. The network environment100may also include one or more advertisement servers140and related data stores145, and one or more optimizer servers150and related data stores155. The users120A-N may request pages, such as web pages, via the web application, standalone application, mobile application125A-N, such as web browsers. The requested page may request an advertisement impression from the advertisement server140to fill a space on the page. The advertiser server140may serve one or more advertisement impressions to the pages in accordance with delivery instructions from the optimizer server150. The advertisement impressions may include online graphical advertisements, such as in a unified marketplace for graphical advertisement impressions. Some or all of the advertisement server140, the optimizer server150, and the one or more web applications, standalone application, mobile applications115,125A-N, may be in communication with each other by way of the networks130and135.

The networks130,135may include wide area networks (WAN), such as the Internet, local area networks (LAN), campus area networks, metropolitan area networks, or any other networks that may allow for data communication. The network130may include the Internet and may include all or part of network135; network135may include all or part of network130. The networks130,135may be divided into sub-networks. The sub-networks may allow access to all of the other components connected to the networks130,135in the system100, or the sub-networks may restrict access between the components connected to the networks130,135. The network135may be regarded as a public or private network connection and may include, for example, a virtual private network or an encryption or other security mechanism employed over the public Internet, or the like.

The web applications, standalone applications and mobile applications115,125A-N may be connected to the network130in any configuration that supports data transfer. This may include a data connection to the network130that may be wired or wireless. Any of the web applications, standalone applications and mobile applications115,125A-N may individually be referred to as a client application. The web application125A may run on any platform that supports web content, such as a web browser or a computer, a mobile phone, personal digital assistant (PDA), pager, network-enabled television, digital video recorder, such as TIVO®, automobile and/or any appliance or platform capable of data communications.

The standalone application125B may run on a machine that includes a processor, memory, a display, a user interface and a communication interface. The processor may be operatively connected to the memory, display and the interfaces and may perform tasks at the request of the standalone application125B or the underlying operating system. The memory may be capable of storing data. The display may be operatively connected to the memory and the processor and may be capable of displaying information to the user B125B. The user interface may be operatively connected to the memory, the processor, and the display and may be capable of interacting with a user B120B. The communication interface may be operatively connected to the memory, and the processor, and may be capable of communicating through the networks130,135with the advertisement server140. The standalone application125B may be programmed in any programming language that supports communication protocols. These languages may include: SUN JAVA®, C++, C#, ASP, SUN JAVASCRIPT®, asynchronous SUN JAVASCRIPT®, or ADOBE FLASH ACTIONSCRIPT®, ADOBE FLEX®, amongst others.

The mobile application125N may run on any mobile device that may have a data connection. The data connection may be a cellular connection, a wireless data connection, an internet connection, an infra-red connection, a Bluetooth connection, or any other connection capable of transmitting data. For example, the mobile application125N may be an application running on an APPLE IPHONE®.

The advertisement server140may include one or more of the following: an application server, a mobile application server, a data store, a database server, and a middleware server. The advertisement server140may exist on one machine or may be running in a distributed configuration on one or more machines. The advertisement server140may be in communication with the client applications115,125A-N, such as over the networks130,135. For example, the advertisement server140may provide a user interface to the users120A-N through the client applications125A-N, such as a user interface for inputting search requests and/or viewing web pages. Alternatively or in addition, the advertisement server140may provide a user interface to the administrator110via the client application115, such as a user interface for managing the data source145and/or configuring advertisements.

The service provider server140and client applications115,125A-N may be one or more computing devices of various kinds, such as the computing device inFIG. 7. Such computing devices may generally include any device that may be configured to perform computation and that may be capable of sending and receiving data communications by way of one or more wired and/or wireless communication interfaces. Such devices may be configured to communicate in accordance with any of a variety of network protocols, including but not limited to protocols within the Transmission Control Protocol/Internet Protocol (TCP/IP) protocol suite. For example, the web application125A may employ the Hypertext Transfer Protocol (“HTTP”) to request information, such as a web page, from a web server, which may be a process executing on the advertisement server140.

There may be several configurations of database servers, application servers, mobile application servers, and middleware applications included in the advertisement server140. The data store145may be part of the advertisement server140and may be a database server, such as MICROSOFT SQL SERVER®, ORACLE®, IBM DB2®, SQLITE®, or any other database software, relational or otherwise. The application server may be APACHE TOMCAT®, MICROSOFT IIS®, ADOBE COLDFUSION®, or any other application server that supports communication protocols.

The networks130,135may be configured to couple one computing device to another computing device to enable communication of data between the devices. The networks130,135may generally be enabled to employ any form of machine-readable media for communicating information from one device to another. Each of networks130,135may include one or more of a wireless network, a wired network, a local area network (LAN), a wide area network (WAN), a direct connection such as through a Universal Serial Bus (USB) port, and the like, and may include the set of interconnected networks that make up the Internet. The networks130,135may include communication methods by which information may travel between computing devices.

FIG. 2is a flow/block diagram illustrating a method and system to support a marketing relationship among advertisers200, media outlets230and an ad distribution system250herein described. Inasmuch as the ad impressions that are to be used to meet the representative demand profile arise over time, an agreement to exploit the ad impressions may rely partly on an estimation of the number and character of ad impressions that arise. If a media outlet is reasonably sure that a given number of ad impressions of a given type arise, then the media outlet can commit contractually to using the ad impressions to meet the demand of particular advertisers whose representative profile encompasses ad impressions of that type. In an advertising contract, it is possible for parties to agree to a “best efforts” obligation to produce exploitable ad impressions, but a contract containing obligations to produce a certain number and type of ad impressions may be preferable. In that case, the guaranteed ad impressions (guaranteed deliver GD ads) can command a better price than potential ad impressions that might be subject to contract but are not guaranteed (non-guaranteed delivery NGD ads) and are uncertain to arise at all.

This situation may be handled in advertising systems by selling guaranteed ad impressions in advance, and selling the additional ad impressions that may arise under different contractual provisions and effectively in a substantially independent market. The present ad distribution system is configured to aid in unifying these two different markets.

An efficient and organized technique may satisfy the demand for distribution of advertising to users. The users can be more or less specifically defined by user characteristics. From the advertisers' perspective, an objective is to enable ads to be targeted to users as a function of the users' characteristics. The users' likely characteristics are known to the media outlets that serve the users, at least because user characteristics correlate with the content of media outlets that the users visit. Often the media outlets may have access to additional subscriber information from browsing history, stored cookies and other factors. The advertisers have preferences and rules for distribution of ads, that may include guidelines based on likely user characteristics and also rules for spreading advertising coverage over a range of users. All such rules, guidelines and preferences on the part of an advertiser, which might result from studies and marketing plans, together define a representative profile of the advertising demand of that advertiser. An advertiser's representative demand profile corresponds to a subset of all opportunities that might become available to insert and display an ad (all the “ad impressions”), and may include some insertions that are of more value to the advertiser than others.

Likewise, from knowledge of user characteristics and from projections of the likely range of users who may be interested enough to visit a certain type of media content in the future, the media outlets can make estimates of the numbers and characteristics of users that are likely to be subject to advertising impressions that might be devoted to displaying an advertiser's content. There is a supply and demand market involving discriminating for ad impressions that meet an advertiser's representative demand profile, allocating and using the ad impressions that arise to meet incremental parts of the representative demand, reporting to the advertiser and collecting revenue in exchange for this service.

InFIG. 2, the advertisers200define a representative demand profile that they deem to be appropriate. The advertisers200might study their products, commission surveys, collect information from actual customers and so forth, to identify likely targets for ads for a particular product or ads written perhaps to be appealing to some recipients more than others. The advertisers200typically have various rules for associating ads with ad impressions of distinct types, and for distributing ads generally over various subsets of a population, not necessary limited to applying their advertising expenditures only to certain targeted subsets. All such rules and associations make up a representative profile that can be unique to an advertiser or an advertised product.

The media outlets230also collect information about their user base and the patterns of user access to and usage of media of one content or another. The media outlets have knowledge of the content of the media and also have knowledge of their users' patterns of access. The media outlets may have subscriber information such as location and demographic data. Some subscriber information can be inferred from a user's access to certain content. All this information is collected and used to study and associate patterns of subscribers and content so as to provide knowledge of the opportunities available to insert advertising that may be of interest to users.

The information collected by media outlets enables projections to estimate the nature and number of ad impressions that are likely to become available at a given time. The information can include, for example, an estimated number of users having defined characteristics who are projected to access a particular web page or other media content source over a given time window. Depending on the information collected, the defined user characteristics might include measures of age, gender, income, family associations, etc., with statistical ranges of confidence in the values.

As a result of collection and study of information, the media outlets or their nominee can determine and define a projected probable inventory of ad impressions that may be offered for sale to advertisers. Within statistical limits, the media outlets may believe that an excess inventory of ad impressions may be available. However, the media outlets are not likely to commit as readily to sale of ad impressions under contracts guaranteeing delivery or containing non-performance penalties, when the availability of the excess ad impressions is unsure. The excess ad impressions in that case might be sold on a spot market when it becomes clear that the ad impressions are available, e.g., immediately before the ad impressions might be used.

According to one aspect, the two markets are to be merged insofar as possible, for ad impressions sold under guaranteed contracts and ad impressions sold only when they prove to be available. This is accomplished in part by optimizing the selected proportion of ad impressions that are committed to guaranteed delivery contracts versus the proportion that are sold if possible when excess ad impressions prove to be available. This is also accomplished in part by providing competition between guaranteed and non-guaranteed demand when accomplishing the delivery of emerging ad impressions as the ad impressions become available. These steps are accomplished by the ad distribution system250as an intermediary between the advertisers200and media outlets230.

The ad distribution system250functions to optimize the proportions or the division of ad impressions that are allocated to guaranteed contracts or to ad hoc spot sales. The optimization can be accomplished during negotiations as to whether to commit to guaranteed sales, but may also be accomplished repetitively by the ad distribution system250as conditions change over time. In addition to negotiations in advance, the ad distribution system250matches demand increments of the representative profiles of advertiser versus projected probable opportunities to use ad impressions, and repetitively updates the projections and rebalances the proportions that are used or planned for use either to satisfy guaranteed obligations or to be sold on the ad hoc spot market. The ad impressions are allocated as a function of price and performance, namely to achieve: (1) a high likelihood that guaranteed obligations are met, (2) a close match of allocated ad impressions with the representative profiles of the advertisers, (3) allocation of the ad impressions to the use that achieve the highest revenue for the media outlets.

FIGS. 3 and 4are block diagrams illustrating exemplary architectures for advertising delivery systems300. InFIG. 3, the advertising delivery system300is configured to integrate handling of determined commitments to provide ad impressions together with emergent opportunities to make spot sales. The determined commitments are generally termed “guaranteed” contracts or guaranteed delivery (GD) of ad impressions, but the idea of guaranteed contracts encompasses any commitment entered before the moment of allocation of an ad impression to a demand, when the allocation reduces the total supply of remaining ad impressions that are available, and thus reduces the number of ad impressions that are might yet be committed to another guaranteed contract or might be allocated for spot sales up to the last possible moment.

The advertising delivery system300can be embodied as a service of a programmed network server that manages the allocation of the supply of ad impressions available from subscribing website operators and similar media outlets versus the demand by advertisers to use the ad impressions, optionally providing the interface through which ad content is routed to the media outlets for insertion, as windows, banners and other elements of webpages being composed for display by the respective browser programs that compose the webpages for viewing by users, e.g., when surfing the worldwide Web. In an advantageous embodiment supported by user interfaces for the advertisers and media distributors or outlets, the system, including methods, can be configured to manage allocation of guaranteed-delivery ad impressions in a number projected by media distributors to be available, and also to manage the offering and sale ad hoc of excess ad impressions that are found to be available beyond those that were projected. These excess impressions can be sold at auction and used up to the time at which it becomes apparent that the number of impressions in the actual supply exceed what was projected. Alternatively or in addition, impressions to be sold at auction do not have to be excess impressions. For example, if the projected auction price is higher than the under-delivery penalty cost, it may be more profitable to sell the impressions at auction, whether or not they are in excess to the projected guaranteed ad impressions.

The advertising delivery system300inFIG. 3can unify the allocation and sale of ads, eliminating artificial separation between the ad impression inventory that is sold months in advance under agreements entailing guaranteed delivery (i.e., obligations as to the number and nature of impressions and potential penalties for inability to deliver) versus the remaining inventory, normally from overly-conservative estimates and projections, to be sold using a real-time auction, spot market or terms of “best efforts” non-guaranteed delivery (NGD).

The advertising delivery system300manages advertising to serve contracts (i.e., guaranteed ad impression deliveries) and non-guaranteed (NGD) contracts. As a result, high-quality or most sought after impressions are allocated to the guaranteed contracts and non-guaranteed contracts. This mode for ad impression allocation may realize the full potential of the additional ad impressions that are available when the number of ad impressions proves to be greater than the number that was projected. By automated allocation and management of non-guaranteed delivery impressions, including allocation and contractual commitment of ad impressions immediately prior to the time that the impressions become available, a mix of guaranteed and also non-guaranteed contracts can form a unified marketplace whereby an impression can be allocated to a guaranteed or non-guaranteed contract efficiently, based on the value of the impression to the different contracts, and with less value risked on the ability to project ad impression availability far in advance. A unified marketplace for long term (guaranteed) impressions and short term ones as well, enables equitable allocation of ad impression inventory, and promotes increased competition between guaranteed and non-guaranteed contracts.

One aspect of the system is a bidding mechanism that enables guaranteed contracts to bid on the spot-market for each impression and compete directly with non-guaranteed contracts, while still meeting the guaranteed goals for the contracts. This competition is facilitated if the value of ad impressions on the spot market is subject to highly refined targeting. For example, a selection of ad impressions targeted to “one million Yahoo! Finance users from 1 Aug. 2008-31 Aug. 2008” is diluted and potentially less valuable to certain advertisers compared to “100,000 Yahoo! Finance users from 1 Aug. 2008-8 Aug. 2008 who are males between the ages of 20-35 located in California, who work in the healthcare industry and have recently accessed information on sports and autos.”

In order to shift to refined targeting, the advertising industry needs to forecast future ad impression inventory to a fine-grained level of targeting, i.e., numerous variables with tight ranges or close adherence to examples. Advantageously, correlations between different targeting attributes are identified and exploited by producing correlated variable values that can be compared directly to match ad impressions with demand. Taken to a very fine level, it may be appropriate to manage contention in a high-dimensional targeting space with hundreds to thousands of targeting attributes because different advertisers can specify different overlapping targeting combinations. If numerous targeting combinations are accepted and guaranteed, the advertising delivery system300may help ensure that sufficient inventory is available.

InFIG. 3, the advertising delivery system300coordinates the execution of various system components, operating as a server with several subsystems devoted to arranging for handling the contractual matching of guaranteed ad impressions allocated to demands according to projections, plus spot market sales of ad impressions that become available, and serving ads to fill the ad impressions.

An admission control and pricing sub-system302facilitates guaranteed ad contracts, preferably for a time period up to a year in advance of actual presentation of ad impressions that are contracted. This sub-system302assists in pricing guaranteed contracts, and is coupled to supply and demand forecasting subsystems for this purpose.

An ad serving sub-system304has a subsystem that matches ad guarantees (demands) with opportunities (ad impressions), including serving the guaranteed impressions and also through ad hoc bidding system whereby selected guaranteed impressions may be supplied by deals on the spot market at favorable terms.

The admission control module302has input and output signal paths for interacting with sales persons who negotiate and contract with advertisers. A sales person may issue a query that defines a specified target (e.g., “Yahoo! finance users who are California males who like sports and autos”) and the Admission Control module determines and reports the available inventory of ad impressions for the target and the associated price. The sales person can then book a contract accordingly.

The ad server module304takes on an ad impression opportunity, which comprises a user such as a web page viewer and a context, such as a URL for the visited page and information on the theme of the content of the web page begin viewed. Other information useful for targeting may be available, such as the succession of URLs visited by the user prior to the visited page. The ad server module304returns a guaranteed ad to fill the ad impression opportunity, and determines an amount that the system is willing to bid for that opportunity in the spot market (the exchange306).

The operation of the system is orchestrated by an optimization module310. This module periodically takes into account a forecast of supply (future impressions that are projected), future guaranteed demand (projected guaranteed contracts) and non-guaranteed demand (expected bids in the spot market) that are generated from a supply forecasting module313, and two demand forecasting modules315,317that are arranged to distinguish between guaranteed and non-guaranteed demand elements. However, as ad impressions are made available, the system can decide whether to use the ad impression to satisfy the guaranteed commitments or to apply them to the spot market.

The optimization module matches supply to demand using an overall objective function as described herein, namely matching instances of ad impressions (supply) to meet instances of demand according to the advertisers' representative profiles of demand, preferably using a norm function that matches supply and demand according to the distance between the variable values of the supply and demand instance attributes in multi-dimensional space. The optimization module sends a summary plan characterizing the optimization results to the admission control and pricing module302and to a plan distribution and statistics gathering module312. The plan distribution and statistics gathering module312sends information defining the plan to the ad servers304. The plan produced by the optimization module can be updated periodically as estimates for supply, demand, and delivered impressions are available, e.g., every few hours.

Given the plan, the admission control and pricing module302works as follows. When a sales person issues a targeting query for some duration in the future, the system first invokes the supply forecasting module313to identify how much inventory is available for that target and duration. As mentioned earlier, targeting queries can be very fine-grained, thus having numerous values in a multi-dimensional space having numerous coordinate axes. The supply forecasting module uses a scalable multi-dimensional database indexing technique for this purpose, with bit-map indices, to enable correlations between different targeting attributes so that the values of instances of supply and demand have some coordinate axes in common, and so that where values are unknown, a statistical probability may be available either to infer a likely value or to dictate that the representative profile should entail distributing supply or demand instances over a range of values for a coordinate axis.

Generating values on the coordinate axes for supply and demand instances is only a part of the larger problem of allocating supply and demand because there is contention between alternative demands for the same instance of supply and vice versa. For example, if there are two demand contracts: “Yahoo! finance users who are California males” and “Yahoo! users who are aged 20-35 and interested in sports,” it may be advantageous to take into account the correlation between the demand instances to avoid double-counting, in this example because male California finance users may have a high correlation with that age bracket and with an interest in sports.

In order to deal with this contention problem in a high-dimensional space, the supply forecasting system preferably computes the match between supply instances as impression samples as opposed to a raw count of available ad impressions. The samples of impressions are used as inputs to compute whether multiple demand contracts are connected to the attributes of a given impression.

Given the impression samples, the admission control module302uses the plan communicated by the optimization module312to calculate the contention between contracts in the high-dimensional space, and returns an available inventory measure to the sales persons without double-counting. In addition, the Admission Control module calculates a proposed price for each contract and returns that along with the quantity of available impressions.

Given the plan, the ad server module304works as follows. When an opportunity is presented, for example because a user's browser is engaged in generating the display of a web page from html data and encounters a graphic that is linked to a web address associated with the ad server, an IP call is made for associated media content (e.g., text, graphics, animation, etc.). The ad server module304calculates the contention among contracts for this impression in a manner similar to what is done by the admission control and pricing module when determining contractual terms beforehand. Given this instance of an available ad impression, and with contention information and knowledge about non-guaranteed demands, the ad server module304responds by selecting a contract with an instance to be filled. The ad server module generates a bid that serves to evaluate the contract, and sends information on the contract and the bid to the exchange element306. At this point, it is possible for the exchange to associate an instance of a non-guaranteed contract (i.e., to sell the ad impression rather than to fill it in satisfaction of the guaranteed contract that is in hand). If the ad impression is sold, the ad server can return content provided from the buyer through the exchange module306. If the terms available over the exchange are less favorable, the ad server304returns the content associated with the guaranteed demand instance.

Matching a given set of contracts (representative profile demands having values associated with various variables) versus and a set of impression samples (ad impression instances of supply, also having values associated with various values), is a core task, and is served substantially by the optimization module310. The task is to decide how to allocate the projected or available ad impressions to satisfy the specifications of the demand contracts. One of the goals is a representative allocation. When a contract demand might be satisfied by multiple eligible ad impression types (each of which would contribute in some degree to meeting the demand), it is desirable to allocate some volume of each eligible impression type to corresponding contract demands. In short, it is desirable to allocate supply instances that have a given set of attribute values, to favor targets who have matched attribute values, but not to allocate all the supply to targets based on one attribute value at the expense of others. It is desirable to spread the allocation volume in a manner that is related to the number of instances of all impression types and demand instances, for example proportionately. Advantageously, the allocation favors but does not serve exclusively, those matches wherein certain variable attributes are close in value (i.e., the viewer in context closely meets one of several measures targeted) at the expense of other attributes.

In the unified marketplace, there are two competing sources of demand to which a particular ad impression might be allocated. An ad impression might used to satisfy a guaranteed delivery (GD) obligation under a contract, or might be sold on the non-guaranteed delivery (NGD) spot market. In a market that is not unified, and assuming that there was sufficient demand from advertisers at the prices offered, the ad impressions of the media distributors might be contractually guaranteed only insofar as their projected availability has a high level of confidence. It is an aspect of the present technique, however, not to allocate only on confidence in availability but instead to seek to maximize the efficiency and value of the allocation to both portions of the demand. Accordingly, the optimization module is used to seek an efficient division of allocations between the guaranteed and spot markets.

When impressions are allocated to guaranteed delivery contracts, the representativeness of the allocation is the major goal, namely closely to match the allocation to the number and type of ad impressions that define the representative profiles of the advertisers. On the other hand, when ad impressions are sold on the non-guaranteed delivery spot market, the goal is merely revenue.

The total available ad impressions are a finite supply. If an impression is allocated to guaranteed delivery, that impression is not available for non-guaranteed demand, and vice versa. The marginal revenue that might be obtained from sale of an ad impression on the spot market therefore is compared directly with the marginal value of using that same ad impression to satisfy a guaranteed delivery obligation. As explained herein, this gives a basis in which to make reasoned decisions as to what proportion of available ad impressions should most efficiently be devoted to meeting guaranteed delivery obligations and what proportion should be sold on the ad hoc spot market, for example at auction. Such decisions are enabled in the optimization module310.

The marginal revenue from a spot market sale of an ad impression is a lost opportunity that is comparable to a cost for a guaranteed delivery allocation of that ad impression. One task of the optimization module310is to decide how to balance the allocations between guaranteed delivery contracts and the non-guaranteed delivery spot market to achieve efficiency and other business goals.

The question of whether to allocate to guaranteed or non-guaranteed allocations is regarded herein as a multi-objective optimization problem with the number and marginal revenue of both allocation categories contributing to a common total but their respective contributions competing for the available supply. Both guaranteed delivery value (which equates to representativeness) and non-guaranteed delivery market revenue (which as an opportunity cost can be assessed against guaranteed delivery value) are modeled explicitly as described herein. Modeling in this way provides a framework to test the results of different functions for evaluating representativeness, enabling the model to identify a corresponding efficient allocation between guaranteed and spot market allocations. The model effectively provides business controls that when imposed on a mathematical optimization that produces a trajectory or range of potential control points, establishes one point in the range to be used as the basis of control. This result accrues using a methodology that establishes a monetary value equivalent to the value of representativeness, for use in solving a multi-objective optimization problem.

FIG. 4is a block diagram of an alternate architecture for the advertising delivery system300. The optimizer310utilizes inputs from the supply forecasting313, guaranteed demand forecasting315and non-guaranteed demand forecasting317modules. Supply forecasting313provides forecast ad opportunities, guaranteed demand forecasting315provides forecast contracts and non-guaranteed demand forecasting317provides forecast non-guaranteed demand prices. The optimizer310uses the inputs to run optimization, such as described with regard to the algorithms below, and generate an ad allocation plan.

The optimizer310allocates the plans to both admission control302and the ad server304. The admission control302uses the allocation plan to calculate inventory level to decide whether or not to accept a booking query. The ad server304uses the allocation plan to decide whether to allocate an incoming ad opportunity to serve a guaranteed contract or sell the ad opportunity to the non-guaranteed marketplace. The ad server304serves an advertisement to an application125A-M, such as a browser, of user120A-N in accordance with the plan. The optimizer310executes allocation optimization algorithms periodically, such as when inputs are updated with all the forecasts as well as feedback of newly booked contracts from the admission control302and advertisement delivery statistics from the ad server304.

Algorithms, such as those used by the optimizer310of the system300, are modeled mathematically and shown graphically using the variables listed and defined in Table I:

TABLE Ii:Index of ad opportunity (supply), i = 1, . . . , Ij:Index of guaranteed contract (demand), j = 1, . . . , Jsi:Supply volume of supply idj:Demand volume of demand jri:Non-guaranteed price (opportunity cost) of supply iSplits to riband riswhen both buying and selling are modeledvj:Allocation priority of demand jcjUnder-delivery penalty cost for demand jFor piecewise linear penalty function, cj= (cjl, . . . cjKj)Bj:Set of supplies that are eligible to serve demand jSj:Total supply volume that is eligible for demand j, i.e.Sj= ΣiεBjsiθij:Proportional allocation from supply i to demand j i.e.,θij=djSj⁢Sixij:(variable) Allocation volume from supply i to demand jyi:(variable) Volume of supply i sold in the NGD marketplaceSplits to yiband yiswhen both buying and selling are modeledzj(variable) Under-delivery volume of demand j For piecewiselinear penalty function, zj= (zjl, . . . zjKj)

The advertising inventory allocation problem can be modeled as the following multi-objective program.

There are two objectives in this model. The first objective f(x;θ) corresponds to a representativeness utility of the GD contracts, which is maximized when the function ƒ is minimized. In the second objective, Σiriyirepresents the total revenue from the NGD market, which is maximized by minimizing its negative. One way to measure the representativeness of an allocation is via the L2distance to the proportional allocation:

Alternative functions for the representativeness utility include L1distance, L∞ distance and K-L divergence. Equations (2) and (3) are supply and demand constraints, respectively.

A way to solve the multi-objective optimization problem is to combine the two objectives via weighted sum:
minγƒ(x,θ)−Σiriyi(8)
s.t.Σj|iεBjxij+yi=si∀i(9)
ΣiεBjxij=dj∀j(10)
xij≧0∀i,j(11)
yi≧0∀i(12)
where the weight γ≧0 is to balance the relative importance between the two objectives.

Another way to solve the multi-objective optimization problem is by goal programming. The idea is to solve one objective (e.g., GD representativeness) for a specified goal (e.g., 90%) of the other objective (e.g., NGD revenue). Formally, we first maximize the NGD revenue:
maxΣiriyi(13)
s.t.Σj|iεBjxij+yi=si∀i  (14)
ΣiεBjxij=dj∀j(15)
xij≧0∀i,j(16)
yi≧0∀i(17)

The GD representativeness is then maximized while protecting a minimum percentage (ηε[0,1]) of the maximum NGD revenue R*NGD=Σiriy*i:
minγƒ(x,θ)  (18)
s.t.Σj|iεBjxij+yi=si∀i(19)
ΣiεBjxij=dj∀j(20)
Σiriyi≧ηR*NGD(21)
xij≧0∀i,j(22)
yi≧0∀i(23)

Given the available supply, it might be impossible to fully satisfy all the demand. In this case, the problem becomes infeasible. This problem can be solved by adding a new objective to the multi-objective framework, minimizing the total underdelivery penalty. Secondly, the model allows selling ad opportunities to NGD marketplace, but may not solve buying from the marketplace. Buying from market may be desirable if it can help improve allocation representativeness or reduce under-delivery. This can be achieved by relaxing the non-negativity constraint for yi. Thirdly, the model may not allow overdelivery. Over-delivery might be desirable if it can help improve allocation representativeness.

The following may extend the above model to a more general framework and address limitations, if any, of the above.

where ƒ1(z) is the total penalty for under-delivery, ƒ2(y) is the cost or negative revenue from the NGD marketplace and ƒ3(x;θ) corresponds to the representativeness utility.

Note that the non-negativity constraint only applies to variable xij, but not to yior zj. si−yiis the actual allocated volume from supply i. If both buying from and selling to the marketplace are allowed, yiis free. Otherwise, if only selling to the marketplace are allowed, yi≧0. Similarly, dj−zjis the actual delivered volume to demand j. If both under-delivery and overdelivery are allowed, zjis free. Otherwise, if only under-delivery is allowed, zj≧0.

If all the demand cannot be satisfied by using the available supply, some of the demand may be trimmed or under-delivered. Since there may be a penalty cost associated with each unit of under-delivered volume, the demand may be trimmed in a way to minimize the total under-delivery penalty.

If there is a single under-delivery penalty rate cjfor each demand j, the problem can be modeled as:
minƒ1(z)=Σjcjzj(29)
s.t.Σj|iεBjxij≦si∀i(30)
ΣiεBjxij+zj=dj∀j(31)
xij≧0∀i,j(32)
zj≧0∀j(33)

are the penalty rates associated with each segment of the penalty function.

Note that the convexity assumption for the under-delivery penalty function is essential to model the problem as a continuous LP. |zj0| represents the over-delivery volume for demand j. If over-delivery is not allowed, set zj0=0.

If there is a single NGD price r, (both selling and buying) for each ad opportunity i, the problem to minimize NGD cost (or maximize NGD revenue) can be modeled as:
minƒ2(y)=−Σiriyi(42)
s.t.Σj|iεBjxij+yi=si∀i(43)
ΣiεBjxij+Σkzjk=dj∀i(44)
xij≧0∀i,j(45)
0≦zik≦bik−bj,k-1∀j,k≧1  (46)
zj0≦0  (47)

Note that rib≧.ris. is a meaningful assumption for an efficient market. As a result, the NGD cost and revenue function is a piece-wice linear and convex, inFIG. 6, which is a condition to model the problem as a continuous LP. If buying ad opportunities from the marketplace is not allowed, we can set yjb=0.

The GD (guaranteed demand) representativeness utility function is assumed to be separate in terms of each demand j.

The function term ƒ3j(xj,θi) can be formulated in different ways. A few examples are listed as follows.

Base on L2distance

Base on L1distance

f3j⁡(xj,θj)=∑i⁢⁢vjθij⁢(xij-θij)(58)
Base on L∞distance

f3j⁡(xj,θj)=maxi⁢vjθij⁢xij-θij(59)
Base on K-L divergence

The multi-objective model may include multiple objectives, such as the following three objectives

The three objectives may be interrelated such that to achieve maximum NGD revenue by serving ad impressions to the NGD market, GD representativeness may decrease. Likewise, to serve ad impressions to maximize GD representativeness, that may impact NGD revenue. There may also be tradeoffs between under-delivery penalties and NGD revenue. If enough ad impressions do not exist to satisfy all the GD contracts, an under-delivery penalty may apply. However, an added revenue from serving an ad impression to the NGD market instead of the GD market may be greater than the under-delivery penalty. The system may also buy ad impressions from the market. In this case, the system may minimize the NGD cost. The system may also allow for over-delivery to the market. The following may be used to help determine whether to serve a particular ad impression to an NGD market or a GD market, and which GD market to serve it to.

A solution for a multi-objective program may be referred to as efficient if there is no other solution that is equal or better in all objectives and is better in at least one objective. All the efficient solutions constitute the efficient frontier. Solving the multi-objective optimization problem boils down to finding a solution on the efficient frontier corresponding to specified priority or preference between the objectives. There are different approaches to the problem to get an efficient solution.

∑13⁢⁢wi=1
are the weights for the relative priority of the objectives.

It may be difficult to set the weights to truly represent the priority. Although the under-delivery penalty ƒ1(z) and NGD cost ƒ2(y) are both in terms of monetary values and thus easy to compare with each other, the representativeness utility ƒ3(x;θ) only has abstract mathematical meaning (distance to the proportional allocation), and thus may not be straightforward to compare with the other two objectives.

Another approach to multi-objective optimization is via goal programming. Solve each objective one by one, by adding constraints on the values of the previous objectives. It can be written as the following three steps:

where ƒ*1is the optimal objective value of total under-delivery penalty cost from the first step and η1≧0 is the percentage of ƒ*1to relax.

where ƒ*1and ƒ*2are the optimal objective values of total under-delivery penalty cost and NGD cost from last two steps, respectively. η1≧0 and η2≧0 are the percentages of ƒ*1and ƒ*2to relax, respectively.

When the under-delivery penalty ƒ1(z) and the NGD cost ƒ2(y) are both of monetary values, they may be combined using weighted sum. Depending on an implementation, the under-delivery penalty or the non-guaranteed demand cost may be weighted higher, or they may both be weighted the same. The optimal monetary objective value of the combined function can then be used as a guideline for the non-monetary objective of representativeness.

where ƒ*12is the optimal objective value of monetary cost from the first step and η12≧0 is the percentages of ƒ*12to relax.

In table 1, ten testing problems are generated from a production system. Details of the size and improvement are illustrated.

In the example, there are 38260 to 210995 supply nodes (ad opportunities), 4605 to 24920 demand nodes (contracts) and 2709771 to 64757238 arcs (eligibility relationships). In the previous model, set ri=0.9 to protect 90% of maximum NGD revenue when maximizing the GD representativeness. In the subsequent model, set η1=1 and η2=0.9 to minimize the under-delivery penalty cost and protect 90% of maximum NGD revenue when maximizing the GD representativeness. With the above parameter settings, the previous and subsequent models return the same under-delivery penalty cost and NGD revenue. However, the subsequent model out-performs the previous model in the objective of GD representativeness by 3.91% to 15.74%. The GPU time is also saved by 8.96% to 93.59%.

The advertising distribution system as disclosed mediates and distributes advertising opportunities, especially insertions of ads on web pages, according to advertisers' representative targeting profiles. The number and characteristics of future ad impressions is forecast. A portion is allocated to guaranteed-delivery advertiser contracts and the remainder is offered on a spot market. A division between guaranteed and spot market allocations is sought to maximize revenue, taking into account a value associated with meeting the advertisers' representative profiles. The value of representativeness can be inferred from the marginal revenue of a spot market sale, and optionally weighted.

The techniques as described are not limited to an Internet based advertising distribution system and can be applied to other instances where there is a need to allocate supply and demand while delivering value in exchange for revenue wherein the demand increments fall into categories having at least one of quantities and revenues that differ between the categories. Inasmuch there are totals of quantity and revenue, it is known that an allocation to one category reduces the allocation to the other category. A relationship can be projected as described that demonstrates the quantities and revenues that result from allocating the total supply more or less to one or the other of the at least two distinct categories, from zero to 100% or at least from zero to a maximum proportion of the total supply. What remains is to determine the operating point.

One or more goals are imposed on the relationship in addition to accounting for distribution of all the supply to one or the other of the allocation categories. The goal helps to determine a point in the relationship curve that corresponds to a particular proportionate allocation. The supply increments are then allocated to the demand increments at this particular proportion in at least one of a planned allocation and an actual allocation including delivering the supply increments. This allocation can be used when planning the proportion of projected ad impressions devoted to guaranteed delivery contracts, or can be used when deciding how to use the successive ad impressions that prove to be available, for example when web page hits occur enabling the transmission of ad copy for insertion into the web page as rendered.

The disclosed allocation technique can incorporate functions that calculate the value of representativeness so as to rate the extent to which emerging ads meet advertiser representativeness specifications, i.e., functions that allow a comparison of ad impression characteristics and advertiser specifications as a measure of quality. Alternatively, the allocation can be based on an inferred monetary value based on the opportunity cost of employing an ad impression to meet a guaranteed demand. The opportunity cost is at least equal to the amount that the ad impression would bring in on the spot market. It is advantageous, however, to weight the importance of representativeness versus revenue, preferably to assume that a high degree of representativeness (high ad quality from the advertisers' viewpoint) is an important aspect for the ad distribution service to deliver. Weighting can be accomplished by a factor that favor representativeness or by choosing a proportion of revenue that should be attributable to representativeness, and thus contributes to long term customer goodwill.

This disclosure encompasses methods, systems for practicing the methods, programmable data processing apparatus and/or program data carriers that store code enabling a general purpose computer to practice the subject matter when coupled in data communication with sources of advertiser information, sources of media distributor information, and advertising copy that can be inserted when opportunities are reported by the media distributors.

FIG. 7illustrates a practical embodiment as a block level diagram wherein the ad distribution system is configured as a computer system750that is coupled for data communications, for example to provide media in the form of html web pages and graphics files over a communication path traversing the Internet755to various remote users757, who may be appropriate targets for advertising content provided by advertisers200. The computer system750can be associated with a service such as a directory service or search engine, or a retail or wholesale outlet or any of various operations whose activities include transmission of media to users757.

The system750as shown can include one or more processors772, implemented using a general or special purpose processing engine such as a microprocessor, controller or other control logic configuration. In the example shown, processor772is coupled via a bus780to program and data memory774, an interface776for input/output with a local operator, including, for example, a keyboard, mouse, display, etc., and a communications interface778. The communications interface is generally shown coupled for communications with advertisers200or over the Internet with remote users757; however it is likewise possible that other specific techniques could be employed to deliver data from the advertiser to system750, such as hand transferred data carriers, telephone discussions or even paper exchanges. The manner of transmitting media to the users757likewise is not limited to web page data transmission and could comprise, for example cable or other video program distribution among other possible embodiments.

The memory774of the computing system advantageously includes random access volatile memory and ROM, disc or flash nonvolatile memory for initialization. The program instructions are stored in and executed from the program memory to carry out the functions discussed above. The memory can include persistent data storage for accumulated data respecting advertiser and user information, for example on hard drives. Advantageously, the memory774of system750can contain locally stored versions of advertising copy that is to be inserted, especially for servicing guaranteed demand. The memory774also can receive, preferably store and insert at least some advertising copy from advertisers22who undertake to use ad impressions obtained on the ad hoc spot market.

Alternatively or in addition, at least part of the advertising copy to be inserted can be stored remotely and accessed by providing to the browser at the user system the appropriate URLs identifying advertising content to be inserted. For example, system750can store and submit to the user browser a network address for graphics or other content to be inserted, which address refers to a system at or associated with the advertiser22, which system is coupled for web communications and is configured to respond to an IP request for addressed graphic or media content. That content can be obtained by bidirectional IP communications between the browser and the system where the content is stored

The persistent storage devices of memory774may include, for example, a media drive and a storage interface for video or other substantial storage capacity needs. The media drive can include a drive or other mechanism to support a storage media. For example, a hard disk drive, a floppy disk drive, a magnetic tape drive, an optical disk drive, a CD or DVD drive (R or RW), or other removable or fixed media drive may be employed. The storage media can include, for example, a hard disk, a floppy disk, magnetic tape, optical disk, a CD or DVD, or other fixed or removable medium that is read by and written to by the media drive.

The terms “computer program medium” and “computer useable medium” and the like are used generally to refer to media such as, for example, memory774, various storage devices, a hard disk and hard disk drive and the like. These and other various forms of computer useable media may be involved in carrying one or more sequences of one or more instructions to processor772for execution. Such instructions, generally referred to as “computer program code” (which may be grouped in the form of computer programs or other groupings), when executed, enable the computing system750to perform features or functions of the embodiments discussed herein.

Alternatively or in addition, dedicated hardware implementations, such as application specific integrated circuits, programmable logic arrays and other hardware devices, may be constructed to implement one or more of the methods described herein. Applications that may include the apparatus and systems of various embodiments may broadly include a variety of electronic and computer systems. One or more embodiments described herein may implement functions using two or more specific interconnected hardware modules or devices with related control and data signals that may be communicated between and through the modules, or as portions of an application-specific integrated circuit. Accordingly, the present system may encompass software, firmware, and hardware implementations.

The methods described herein may be implemented by software programs executable by a computer system. Further, implementations may include distributed processing, component/object distributed processing, and parallel processing. Alternatively or in addition, virtual computer system processing maybe constructed to implement one or more of the methods or functionality as described herein.

The network could be the worldwide web and the advertising copy could comprise banner ads, graphics in fields of specific size and placement, overlaid moving pictures or animation, redirection to a different URL, etc. The same targeting abilities are also applicable to networks that are interactive to a lesser degree, such as cable television ad insertion, which might be done at a head end or at a hub, or even from a subscriber-specific set top box.

Although components and functions are described that may be implemented in particular embodiments with reference to particular standards and protocols, the components and functions are not limited to such standards and protocols. For example, standards for Internet and other packet switched network transmission (e.g., TCP/IP, UDP/IP, HTML, HTTP) represent examples of the state of the art. Such standards are periodically superseded by faster or more efficient equivalents having essentially the same functions. Accordingly, replacement standards and protocols having the same or similar functions as those disclosed herein are considered equivalents thereof.

The value of an opportunity to present an ad (i.e., to exploit an “ad impression”) may be different for different advertisers and different web page or entertainment genres, because the content of the media delivered by a particular media outlet draws users of a certain type that may correlate more or less strongly with a population of potential customers that an advertiser seeks to reach. Variation in the value of ads, plus the ability to discriminate among ad recipients as a function of the variable content of the web pages they access, plus the ability to shift selectively to route appropriate ad content to a selected user when a web page is rendered, make on-line network communications a very useful and efficient environment for advertising, and especially for targeted advertising.

While one may not conclude definitely that any given subject responds favorably if exposed to information or advertising, for example by purchasing an advertised product or service, one can establish a set of variables to characterize members of a population, to determine values for those variables that are most characteristic of actual purchasers (and by implication to assess the quality of ad targets). The statistical methods above may enable correlation of a set of variable values with selected subsets of the population consistent with purchasers. Statistical methods also enable correlation among the variables themselves. The result is a set of criteria such as age, gender, location, income range, education, family status, etc., and various rules of thumb that attempt to use combinations of certain values of these criteria to make conclusions about the characteristics and buying preferences of customers.

Variably defined subsets of the population are thereby rated for the likelihood that members of each subset becomes a purchaser if exposed to advertising. The subsets of the population can be distinguished by the extent to which members are correlated to an ideal target for an advertising piece.

There are mathematical ways to correlate variable values that may be known about the population of subjects with other variable values that may not be known. There are also ways to infer information such as descriptive and demographic details about subjects, based on the subject's current activities, including the websites that a subject may be visiting, the entertainment programs being viewed, the periodical publications that the person reads, etc. If an advertiser is promoting a product that is associated with the content of a website or a publication, then advertising on the website or in the publication may be more valuable to the advertiser than advertising elsewhere or randomly, because the subjects who are exposed to the advertising are relatively more highly correlated with likely purchasers than other subjects and are more likely to actually see the advertising.

An advertiser typically does not have close access to an isolated population of subjects who are all very highly correlated with an ideal likely purchaser. Even if the advertiser had access to such a population, the advertiser may not devote 100% of its advertising effort to that population. The advertiser also may want to devote advertising efforts to other populations that are perhaps not so highly correlated, but where advertising still has a positive effect. For example, an advertiser typically seeks to spread advertising expenditures over a wide range of subjects and over a wide geographic area, while perhaps biasing its efforts toward subjects who are or might be correlated with a hypothetical ideal purchaser.

The advertiser may determine a profile of representative advertising over which advertising expenditures shall be devoted. This profile may be discussed with possible advertising outlets such as advertising brokers, advertising services (including on-line services such as that offered by Yahoo!), media outlets such as web page operators and cable media distributors, print publishers and others similarly situated. Negotiations may ensue on the basis that the party controlling the ad impressions demands payment and competing advertisers who want to use the ad impressions are willing to pay for the ad impressions in amounts that related to the extent to which the ad impressions match the advertisers' representative profiles of what the advertisers demand. Matching the use of impressions to adhere to the representative aspects sought by the advertiser may be an objective. Maintaining “representativeness” may achieve long term value.

The market for advertising on Internet webpages is particularly well developed because information is available to characterize the webpage users (the potentially targeted subjects). Infrastructure is in place for changeably inserting ad graphics and moving pictures, such as Internet browsers. Data from click streams and sometimes from locally stored cookies can carry context and history information forward in time as the user surfs through different pages. Internet service providers make at least generalized information on subscribers available routinely, such as the subscriber's zip code. These information sources enable information to be collected to gauge the characteristics of users and enable an advertiser to define a representative advertising allocation for which the advertiser contracts.

Internet webpage operators are also in a good situation for collecting data about information distribution events, such as reporting on the availability and use of ad impressions. Executed ad impressions can be counted and reported with associated context information, time of day, location of recipient and so forth. This information enables the operators to forecast the number of impressions and the characteristics of users that are likely to be available to receive impressions ready to be allocated to those users at a future date and time. The information allows up to the moment monitoring of use of the ad impressions for reporting compliance with contractual obligations to distribute a given number of ads of a given type in a given time window.

Advertisers contract with advertising distributors and advertising services to make use of ad impressions that are available to the distributor or service. The advertising distributor might be a website operator or an advertising warehouse that in turn contracts with website operators. Available impressions may be determined in number and with respect to attributes that determine the value of the impressions to the advertiser. The attributes include characteristics that enable the advertiser to judge how representative the recipients of the impressions will be, compared to likely purchasers and to the advertiser's desired profile of ad distribution. The advertising distributor may agree to distinguish among potential users to whom impressions are delivered, for example by the attributes of the users or the web content that the users view. This aspect may be written into the contract. The advertising distributor may commit to delivering a given number of impressions to users of defined characteristics or in a defined context over a given time window at some point in the future.

The advertiser may contract with the advertising distributor to deliver a stated number of ad impressions to a stated number of website viewers having stated demographic or other properties that correspond with the representativeness aspects dictated by an advertiser. There may be alternative ways in which the website operator could meet its obligations. As one example, if the agreement is to deliver impressions to users in a certain age group, the website operator might devote a large ratio of available impression opportunities at a time of day when the on-line user population of the age group is low, or a smaller ratio of available impression opportunities at a time of day when the percentage of users in that age group is higher, and in either case get the number of impressions needed to meet the contractual obligation.

The website operator or other advertising distributor has degrees of freedom in which to operate but may need information to define the variations in users by factors that matter, such as the correlation of user age to time of day of on-line access, in the example of a time discrimination aspect. There are various such correlations possible between category ratings that are known or might be inferred.

In order to assess its ability to meet contractual obligations, the advertising distributor projects an estimate of the number of users of given characteristics at some future date and time when offering to sell ad impressions to an advertising campaign manager negotiating for the advertiser. If the seller of ad impressions (the advertising distributor) guarantees that a certain number of ad impressions are executed to users of given attributes, the seller may be bound to comply, subject to possible contractual penalties.

A seller may decide to guarantee a number of available impressions that are relatively sure to be available at the future data and time. Then if an excess number of impressions actually become available for execution at that time, the seller may seek to exploit them in sales under short term contracts, in an ad hoc spot market or by auction that could occur at any time up to the moment that an ad impression is used. The impressions that were committed by contract according to prudent projections made ahead of time can be deemed “guaranteed” impressions. The remaining impressions are “excess” or “non-guaranteed” impressions and may be sold on last minute terms or on “best efforts” commitments by the ad distributor.

In existing markets for on-line advertising, the manner of sale and the use of guaranteed and non-guaranteed ad impressions may be distinctly different for the two types. Based on their confidence in projections of ad availability, the seller of ad impressions may prefer to sell guaranteed impressions and to develop long term relationships with advertisers characterized by dependability in meeting obligations. However, undue caution when making projections may leave saleable ads unsold, or may affect the prices that quality ad impressions may command. Furthermore, the ability to correlate user characteristics with ad impressions accurately may be best immediately before the ads are used. Therefore, some of the highest quality ads (namely those that are highly correlated with some desired target category) arise only after it is too late to handle them in guaranteed contracts. For these impressions, a second marketplace is advantageous, apart from the marketplace in the sale of projected future impressions under contracts that contain obligations as to the number of impressions that provided. This second marketplace is not based substantially on promises of future performance and instead is based on exploiting currently available opportunities.

If the advertising distributor was cautious when negotiating contracts to sell guaranteed impressions, the advertising distributor may have reserved a substantial portion of the impressions that were projected to become available, to avoid contractual penalties if the projections prove too optimistic. These may be sold or else wasted.

If impressions become available that are matched to an advertiser's representative profile, the impressions have a high value in advertising effectiveness to that advertiser. These non-guaranteed impressions might be sold at a high price. Assuming that some proportion of projected impressions are to be reserved to ensure the ability to meet obligations, a problem is presented in how optimally to allocate the impressions between the guaranteed and non-guaranteed categories when planning and negotiating contracts for use of projected future ad impressions. Assuming that the decisions have been made, the situation may change when projections are proved or disproved in reality. The above system and method, including optimizer310, may optimally allocate emergent supply of ad impressions either to obligated/guaranteed impressions or to non-guaranteed impressions, in a manner that is agile and quick.

The system and method may consider multiple objectives. The advertising distributor meets his contractual obligations, and delivers quality impressions to the advertiser in exchange for value received. The advertising distributor's long term performance under these objectives, including meeting contractual obligations for delivery of guaranteed impressions, is important to maintaining mutually beneficial relations between the advertising distributor and its customers, namely the advertisers.

The advertising distributor may maximize revenues obtained in exchange for use of the ad impressions that are available. Revenues can be maximized when accurate projections can be made, including forecasting the supply of impressions that are available, assessing the demand for guaranteed impressions and forecasting the future demand in the event of short notice ad hoc sales of excess impressions, by auction or otherwise.

The foregoing situation can be considered a confluence of overlapping marketplaces. For each marketplace, the impressions (information exposures) that are available according to projections, or the impressions that actually prove to be available when the time arrives, each represent a finite supply of information distribution opportunities. These information distribution opportunities need to be allocated to the demand for use of ad impression opportunities associated with highly representative advertiser-targeted groups. The allocation may maximize representativeness of ad impressions compared to the advertiser's targeting, which comes from ensuring that guaranteed impressions are faithfully delivered. The allocation may maximize the revenue to the advertising distributor, who may be a media operator, by ensuring that no impressions go unsold, or are sold at prices that are less than the ad impressions should reasonably command.

A given number of impressions is projected to be available. If the advertising distributor decides to use some number of the projected impressions under guaranteed contracts, then the number available for ad hoc auction is reduced, and vice versa. The above system and method may provide an optimal and efficient technique to control the relative allocations of guaranteed ad impressions under contracts versus non-guaranteed ad impressions to be sold on the spot market.