GENERATING ESTIMATES BY COMBINING UNSUPERVISED AND SUPERVISED MACHINE LEARNING

A method may include obtaining a cluster. The cluster may include a subset of reference entities. The method may further include calculating distances between features of a target entity and features of the subset of reference entities, selecting, based on the distances, peer entities from the subset, and generating an estimated value of a metric. The generating may include applying, to the features of the target entity, a machine learning model trained using training data including values of the features for the peer entities labeled with a value of the metric. The method may further include presenting the estimated value of the metric.

BACKGROUND

Estimating the value of a metric for an entity may be useful in a variety of scenarios. For example, estimating the revenue of a business entity may be useful in determining whether to approve a request for a loan. Other examples may include: estimating the performance (e.g., response time, resource consumption, cost, reliability) of a computational entity or mechanical entity. However, information about the entity relevant to the metric may be noisy and/or incomplete, thus making it difficult to generate an accurate estimate.

SUMMARY

In general, in one aspect, one or more embodiments relate to a method including obtaining a cluster. The cluster includes a subset of reference entities. The method further includes calculating distances between features of a target entity and features of the subset of reference entities, selecting, based on the distances, peer entities from the subset, and generating an estimated value of a metric. The generating includes applying, to the features of the target entity, a machine learning model trained using training data including values of the features for the peer entities labeled with a value of the metric. The method further includes presenting the estimated value of the metric.

In general, in one aspect, one or more embodiments relate to a system including a computer processor, a repository configured to store clusters including a cluster including a subset of reference entities, and metric estimation manager executing on the computer processor and configured to: calculate distances between features of a target entity and features of the subset, select, based on the distances, peer entities from the subset, and generate an estimated value of a metric. The generating includes applying, to the features of the target entity, a machine learning model trained using training data including values of the features for the peer entities labeled with a value of the metric. The metric estimation manager is further configured to present the estimated value of the metric. generating an estimated value of a metric.

In general, in one aspect, one or more embodiments relate to a method including sending a target entity request to a metric estimation manager configured to perform obtaining a cluster. The cluster includes a subset of reference entities. The metric estimation manager is further configured to perform: calculating distances between features of a target entity and features of the subset of reference entities, selecting, based on the distances, peer entities from the subset, and generating an estimated value of a metric. The generating includes applying, to the features of the target entity, a machine learning model trained using training data including values of the features for the peer entities labeled with a value of the metric. The metric estimation manager is further configured to perform transmitting the estimated value of the metric. presenting the estimated value of the metric. The method further includes receiving, from the metric estimation manager, the estimated value of the metric, and presenting the estimated value of the metric.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION

In general, embodiments of the invention are directed to a machine learning architecture for computer system estimation of a metric value for an entity, referred to as the target entity. For example, the target entity may be a company and the metric may be revenue. The metric may be estimated in response to a request from the target entity. For example, the request may be a loan application.

By way of a more detailed overview, clusters may be obtained that include subsets of reference entities. The clusters may be based on features of the entities. Examples of features may include: entity attributes (e.g., location, industry code), operational features and/or transaction aggregations. Operational features are characteristics of the entity that relate to actions performed by the entity (e.g., loans received, cost of goods sold). Transaction aggregations are aggregations (e.g., sums, averages, etc.) of different categories of the transactions of the entity (e.g., total taxes, total expenses). One of the clusters may be the closest cluster to the target entity, based on the distances (e.g., Canberra distances) calculated between the features of the target entity and the centroids of the clusters.

Peer entities that are similar to the target entity may be selected from the cluster closest to the target entity by calculating distances between the features of the subset of reference entities and the features of the target entity. A metric estimation machine learning model may be trained using the features of the peer entities labeled with a value of the metric. The metric estimation machine learning model may be applied to the features of the target entity to estimate a value of the metric for the target entity.

By estimating (e.g., predicting) the value of the metric for the target entity with a machine learning model trained using information about peer entities of the target entity, an accurate value of the metric may be generated despite a lack of information about the target entity. In contrast, manual generation of an estimated value of a metric is typically error-prone and inaccurate.

FIG.1shows a diagram of a system (100) in accordance with one or more embodiments. As shown inFIG.1A, the system (100) includes multiple components such as the user computing system (102), a server (104), and a repository (106). Each of these components is described below.

In one or more embodiments, the user computing system (102) provides, to a user, a variety of computing functionality. For example, the computing functionality may include word processing, multimedia processing, financial management, business management, social network connectivity, network management, and/or various other functions that a computing device performs for a user.

The user computing system (102) may be a mobile device (e.g., phone, tablet, digital assistant, laptop, etc.) or any other computing device (e.g., desktop, terminal, workstation, etc.) with a computer processor (not shown) and memory (not shown) capable of running computer software. The user computing system (102) may take the form of the computing system (500) shown inFIG.5Aconnected to a network (520) as shown inFIG.5B.

The user computing system (102) includes a computer program (142). The computer program (142), in accordance with one or more embodiments, is a software application written in any programming language that includes executable instructions stored in some sort of memory. The instructions, when executed by one or more processors, enable a device to perform the functions described in accordance with one or more embodiments. The computer program (142) may include a graphical user interface (GUI) for receiving input from a user and transmitting output to the user. The GUI may be rendered and displayed within a local desktop software application or the GUI may be generated by a remote web server and transmitted to a user's web browser executing locally on a desktop or mobile device.

The repository (106) is any type of storage unit and/or device (e.g., a file system, database, collection of tables, or any other storage mechanism) for storing data. Further, the repository (106) may include multiple different storage units and/or devices. The multiple different storage units and/or devices may or may not be of the same type or located at the same physical site. The repository (106) may be accessed online via a cloud service (e.g., Amazon Web Services, Egnyte, Azure, etc.).

The repository (106) includes functionality to store entities (110), entity data (116), clusters (122C,122G), features (128), and training data (136). An entity may be a person or business. Alternatively, an entity may be a computing or mechanical system. An entity may correspond to an entity identifier (e.g., a unique identifier). The entities (110) include a target entity (112) and reference entities (114). The target entity (112) is an entity that corresponds to a target entity request (e.g., target entity request (162)). For example, the target entity (112) may be a person or business that submits a request for a loan or other product or service. The reference entities (114) may be any entities for which entity data (116) is available.

Entities (110) correspond to entity data (116). The entity data (116) includes entity attributes (118) and transactions (120). The entity attributes (118) are general characteristics of the entity. For example, the entity attributes (118) may include categorical attributes such as: location (e.g., state or province), industry code (e.g., a standard industrial classification (SIC) code), etc. Alternatively or additionally, the entity attributes (118) may include numerical attributes such as: age, size (e.g., number of employees, if the entity is a business entity), etc.

The transactions (120) are records of events involving the entity and a payee. The payee may be a vendor or other entity that provides a product and/or service to the entity in exchange for receiving an amount (e.g., a dollar amount) on a date. The transactions (120) may be categorized into various categories. For example, financial transactions may be categorized into categories used in a chart of accounts (CoA), standard industrial classification (SIC) codes, tax form codes (e.g., sales, taxes, utility and/or other expenses, income), etc. The transactions (120) may be downloaded by the computer program (142) (e.g., from a financial institution used by the entity).

The features (128) include entity attributes (118), operational features (132), and/or transaction aggregations (134). The operational features (132) may be characteristics of the entity that relate to actions performed by the entity. Examples of operational features (132) for a business entity may include financial features such as: sales revenue, net deposits, loan disbursements, cost of goods sold, etc. The transaction aggregations (134) may be aggregations (e.g., sums, averages, etc.) of different categories of the transactions (120) of the entity. Examples of categories of transactions for a business entity may include total sales, total expenses, etc.

The operational features (132) and transaction aggregations (134) may vary across different time intervals. For example, operational features (132) and transaction aggregations (134) may be derived from transactions (120) occurring within a specific time interval.

The reference entities (114) may be divided into clusters (122C,122G). The clusters (122C,122G) include subsets of the reference entities (124S,124W). The entities within a cluster are similar to one another with respect to a distance calculated from one or more features (e.g., feature vectors) of the entities. For example, the entities within a cluster may each be within a threshold distance of a center point (e.g., a centroid) of the cluster. Continuing this example, the distance may be a Canberra distance.

One of the clusters (e.g., cluster C (122C)) may be the closest cluster to the target entity (112), based on the distances calculated between the features of the target entity (112) and the centroids of the clusters (122C,122G). Cluster C (122C) includes subset S of the reference entities (124S). The subset S of the reference entities (124S) in cluster C (122C) includes peer entities (126) that are entities in subset S that are similar to the target entity (112). For example, the peer entities (126) may be the entities closest to the target entity (112) with respect to the distance calculated from one or more features of the entities.

The server (104) includes a metric estimation manager (144) and computer processor(s) (154). The metric estimation manager (144) includes functionality to receive a target entity request (162) from the computer program (142). For example, the target entity request (162) may be a request for a loan or other product or service. The metric estimation manager (144) includes functionality to send an estimated metric value (164) to the computer program (142) in response to receiving the target entity request (162). The metric may be a measure of the performance of the target entity (112). For example, if the target entity (112) is a business entity, the metric may be revenue, expenses, etc.

The metric estimation manager (144) includes a cluster model (146), a metric estimation model (148), and a feature generator (150). The feature generator (150) includes functionality to generate the features (128) from the entity data (116). The feature generator (150) includes a transaction categorizer (152).

The transaction categorizer (152) includes functionality to generate the transaction aggregations (134) from the transactions (120). The transaction categorizer (152) may include functionality to generate the transaction aggregations (134) by matching transactions to regular expressions and/or rules. For example, a regular expression may describe a pattern associated with a transaction category.

The transaction categorizer (152) may be implemented as a machine learning model. For example, the transaction categorizer (152) may learn the classifications of transactions as categories based on a supervised ground-truth training data set. Continuing this example, each record in the training data set may include a transaction labeled with a category. The transaction categorizer (152) may be implemented as a support vector machine (SVM) classifier. Alternatively, the transaction categorizer (152) may be implemented as various types of deep learning models based on neural networks (e.g., based on convolutional neural networks (CNNs)), random forests, logistic regression with different regularization methods (e.g., lasso, ridge, elastic net), gradient boosting (e.g., XGBoost), bagging, adaptive boosting (AdaBoost), etc.).

The cluster model (146) may be an unsupervised machine learning model. The cluster model (146) includes functionality to divide the entities (110) into clusters (122C,122G). In one or more embodiments, the cluster model (146) divides the entities (110) into clusters (122C,122G) using one or more entity attributes (118). For example, the cluster model (146) may divide business entities into clusters using the entity attributes “industry code” and/or “geographic location.” Alternatively, in one or more embodiments, the cluster model (146) divides the entities (110) into clusters (122C,122G) using aggregated features. The aggregated features may be aggregations of the entity attributes (118), operational features (132), and/or transaction aggregations (134). For example, the cluster model (146) may use feature reduction to generate representative lower-dimensional, aggregated features from the entity attributes (118), operational features (132), and/or transaction aggregations (134). Continuing this example, the cluster model (146) may use Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP) to generate the aggregated features. UMAP is a machine learning technique used for dimension reduction or feature selection (e.g., rather than generation of aggregated features). Further continuing this example, the cluster model (146) may use K-means clustering to group the entities (110) into clusters (122C,122G).

The metric estimation model (148) includes functionality to generate an estimated value of a metric. For example, for business entities, the metric may be total revenue, total sales, total expenses, etc. The metric estimation model (148) may be implemented as a machine learning model. For example, the metric estimation model (148) may be implemented as a tree-based model such as XGBoost and LightGBM. Because the underlying data may be incomplete in a practical problem solving situation, tree-based models may handle such missing data during training by either ignoring missing values during a split, and later allocating the values to the branch with the largest loss reduction (e.g., missing values are handled by default). In contrast, other algorithms may require missing values prior to model training, causing additional complexity to be introduced into the machine learning pipeline (e.g., without significant life in model performance).

Alternatively, the metric estimation model (148) may be implemented using one of the aforementioned types of deep learning models based on neural networks. The metric estimation model (148) may be trained using training data (136) that includes feature values (138) of peer entities (126) labeled with metric values (140). That is, the metric estimation model (148) learns the relationship between the values of features of peer entities (126) to values of the metric.

In one or more embodiments, the computer processor(s) (154) takes the form of the computer processor(s) (502) described with respect toFIG.5Aand the accompanying description below. In one or more embodiments, the computer processor (154) includes functionality to execute the metric estimation manager (144).

FIG.2shows a flowchart in accordance with one or more embodiments of the invention. The flowchart depicts a process for estimating a value of a metric for an entity. One or more of the steps inFIG.2may be performed by the components (e.g., the metric estimation manager (144) and computer program (142) of the system (100)) discussed above in reference toFIG.1. In one or more embodiments of the invention, one or more of the steps shown inFIG.2may be omitted, repeated, and/or performed in parallel, or in a different order than the order shown inFIG.2. Accordingly, the scope of the invention should not be considered limited to the specific arrangement of steps shown inFIG.2.

Initially, in Step202, a cluster including a subset of reference entities is obtained. The cluster may be one of multiple clusters obtained in response to a target entity request (e.g., a request for a product or service) submitted by a target entity. The feature generator may generate features for the target entity and the reference entities. The features include entity attributes, operational features, and/or transaction aggregations. Examples of entity attributes for a business entity include location, industry code, etc. Examples of operational features for a business entity include financial features such as: sales revenue, net deposits, etc. Examples of transaction aggregations for a business entity include sums or averages of different categories of transactions (e.g., total sales, total expenses) of the business entity. The cluster may be selected as the closest cluster to the target entity, based on the distances calculated between the features of the target entity and the centroids of the clusters.

The features may be generated for a specific time interval. For example, the feature generator may generate operational features and transaction aggregations by executing queries on transactions of the respective entity occurring within a specific time interval.

The transaction categorizer may generate transaction aggregations that are relevant to the metric. For example, transaction aggregations for the transaction categories “accounts receivable,” “income,” “sales,” may be relevant to the metric of “revenue.” In contrast, transaction aggregations for the transaction categories “loan funding” and “transactions between accounts” may be irrelevant to the metric of “revenue.”

The cluster model may divide the reference entities into different clusters based on the features of the entities. In one or more embodiments, the cluster model divides the reference entities into different clusters based on a subset of the entity attributes. Alternatively, in one or more embodiments, the cluster model aggregates the entity attributes, the operational features and/or the transaction aggregations to obtain aggregated features. The cluster model may then divide the reference entities into clusters using the aggregated features.

In Step204, distances between features of the target entity and features of the subset of reference entities are calculated. For example, the distances may be calculated as Canberra distances between feature vectors that represent the features of the respective entities.

In Step206, peer entities are selected from the subset using the distances. The peer entities may be selected as the entities in the subset with the smallest calculated distances to the target entity. For example, the peer entities may be the N entities in the subset with the smallest distances to the target entity, where N is a predetermined number of entities.

In Step208, an estimated value of the metric is generated by applying a machine learning model to the features of the target entity. The machine learning model is trained using training data including values of the features for the peer entities labeled with a value of the metric. Thus, the peer entities may serve as a benchmark from which the performance of the target entity, relative to the metric, may be predicted. For example, the features and estimated values of the metric for the peer entities may be available, while the features of the target entity may be unavailable or inaccurate.

In Step210, the estimated value of the metric is presented. The metric may be presented in a graphical user interface (GUI) (e.g., the GUI of the computer program). The metric estimation manager may recommend a response to the target entity request using the estimated value of the metric. For example, the metric estimation manager may recommend the approval or rejection of the target entity request based on the value of the metric. Continuing this example, the metric estimation manager may recommend the approval or rejection of the target entity request based on whether the value of the metric exceeds a threshold.

The process ofFIG.2may be repeated for different time intervals. For example, features of the entities may be generated for the different time intervals. The features may have different values in the different time intervals because one or more of the features (e.g., operational features and transaction aggregations) may be generated from transactions occurring in the respective time interval. Thus, the reference entities may be divided into different clusters in the different time intervals, which in turn results in the selection of different peer entities in the different time intervals. Different estimated values of the metric may be generated by applying the machine learning model to the different features of the target entity in the different time intervals. For example, the different estimated values of the metric may be combined. Continuing this example, the different estimated values of the metric may be combined in an average or a weighted average. In addition, trend analysis may be performed to identify short-term, long-term and/or seasonal trends in the estimated values of the metric.

In one or more embodiments, the machine learning model is further trained using training data including values of the features for the different peer entities labeled with a value of the metric.

FIG.3shows a flowchart in accordance with one or more embodiments of the invention. The flowchart depicts a process for estimating a value of a metric for an entity. One or more of the steps inFIG.3may be performed by the components (e.g., the metric estimation manager (144) and computer program (142) of the system (100)) discussed above in reference toFIG.1. In one or more embodiments of the invention, one or more of the steps shown inFIG.3may be omitted, repeated, and/or performed in parallel, or in a different order than the order shown inFIG.3. Accordingly, the scope of the invention should not be considered limited to the specific arrangement of steps shown inFIG.3.

Initially, in Step254a target entity request is sent to metric estimation manager configured to transmit an estimated value of a metric by performing the steps ofFIG.2. The computer program may send the target entity request to the metric estimation manager via a network.

In Step256, the estimated value of the metric is received from the metric estimation manager. The computer program may receive the estimated value of the metric from the metric estimation manager via the network.

Initially, in Step258, the estimated value of the metric is presented (see description of Step210above).

FIG.4shows an implementation example in accordance with one or more embodiments. The implementation example is for explanatory purposes only and not intended to limit the scope of the invention. One skilled in the art will appreciate that implementation of embodiments of the invention may take various forms and still be within the scope of the invention.

FIG.4shows company C data (404) ((116) inFIG.1) that includes company C attributes (406) ((118) inFIG.1) and transactions (408) ((120) inFIG.1). Company C data (404) is provided to the metric estimation manager along with a loan application. That is, in this example, the entities are companies, company C is the target company, the target company request is a loan application, and the metric is revenue (e.g., monthly revenue). The feature generator (410) ((150) inFIG.1) of the metric estimation manager generates company C features (412) ((128) inFIG.1) from the company C data (404). The company C features (412) include the company C attributes (406), as well as operational features (416) ((132) inFIG.1) and transaction aggregations (418) ((134) inFIG.1). The operational features (416) are financial features of company C. The transaction aggregations (418) correspond to categories used in a chart of accounts (CoA) of company C.

The cluster model (426) ((146) inFIG.1) of the metric estimation manager divides reference companies (424) ((114) inFIG.1) into clusters using the company attributes of the reference companies (424). The reference companies (424) and company C (422) ((112) inFIG.1) are included in the set of all companies (420) ((110) inFIG.1). Each cluster includes a subset of the reference companies (424). Cluster (428) is the cluster that is closest to company C (422), and includes a subset of the reference companies (430) ((124S) inFIG.1). That is, cluster (428) includes banking companies in the vicinity of New York. The metric estimation manager selects peer companies (432) ((126) inFIG.1) based on distances calculated between the features of company C (422) and the features of the subset of the reference companies (430). A revenue estimation model (440) ((148) inFIG.1) of the metric estimation manager is then trained using training data (442) ((136) inFIG.1). The training data (442) includes peer companies feature values (444) ((138) inFIG.1) labeled with revenue values (446) ((140) inFIG.1). Applying the trained revenue estimation model (440) to the company C features (412) results in an estimated revenue (450) ((164) inFIG.1).

Embodiments disclosed herein may be implemented on a computing system specifically designed to achieve an improved technological result. When implemented in a computing system, the features and elements of this disclosure provide a significant technological advancement over computing systems that do not implement the features and elements of the disclosure. Any combination of mobile, desktop, server, router, switch, embedded device, or other types of hardware may be improved by including the features and elements described in the disclosure. For example, as shown inFIG.5A, the computing system (500) may include one or more computer processors (502), non-persistent storage (504) (e.g., volatile memory, such as random access memory (RAM), cache memory), persistent storage (506) (e.g., a hard disk, an optical drive such as a compact disk (CD) drive or digital versatile disk (DVD) drive, a flash memory, etc.), a communication interface (512) (e.g., Bluetooth interface, infrared interface, network interface, optical interface, etc.), and numerous other elements and functionalities that implement the features and elements of the disclosure.

The computer processor(s) (502) may be an integrated circuit for processing instructions. For example, the computer processor(s) may be one or more cores or micro-cores of a processor. The computing system (500) may also include one or more input devices (510), such as a touchscreen, keyboard, mouse, microphone, touchpad, electronic pen, or any other type of input device.

The communication interface (512) may include an integrated circuit for connecting the computing system (500) to a network (not shown) (e.g., a local area network (LAN), a wide area network (WAN) such as the Internet, mobile network, or any other type of network) and/or to another device, such as another computing device.

The nodes (e.g., node X (522), node Y (524)) in the network (520) may be configured to provide services for a client device (526). For example, the nodes may be part of a cloud computing system. The nodes may include functionality to receive requests from the client device (526) and transmit responses to the client device (526). The client device (526) may be a computing system, such as the computing system shown inFIG.5A. Further, the client device (526) may include and/or perform all or a portion of one or more embodiments disclosed herein.

The above description of functions presents only a few examples of functions performed by the computing system ofFIG.5Aand the nodes and/or client device inFIG.5B. Other functions may be performed using one or more embodiments disclosed herein.