Application of a Mathematical Model in Determining the Spread of the Rabies Virus: Simulation Study
Authors: Mingtao Li
Yihao Huang
Journal: JMIR Medical Informatics (2020)
Discipline: CLINICAL MEDICINE
Keywords: basic reproductive number; computer model; rabies; suppression measures.
Affiliations: School of Computer and Information Technology, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, China., Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, China.

Abstract:  Background: Rabies is an acute infectious disease of the central nervous system caused by the rabies virus. The mortality rate of rabies is almost 100%. For some countries with poor sanitation, the spread of rabies among dogs is very serious. Objective: The objective of this paper was to study the ecological transmission mode of rabies to make theoretical contributions to the suppression of rabies in China. Methods: A mathematical model of the transmission mode of rabies was constructed using relevant data from the literature and officially published figures in China. Using this model, we fitted the data of the number of patients with rabies and predicted the future number of patients with rabies. In addition, we studied the effectiveness of different rabies suppression measures. Results: The results of the study indicated that the number of people infected with rabies will rise in the first stage, and then decrease. The model forecasted that in about 10 years, the number of rabies cases will be controlled within a relatively stable range. According to the prediction results of the model reported in this paper, the number of rabies cases will eventually plateau at approximately 500 people every year. Relatively effective rabies suppression measures include controlling the birth rate of domestic and wild dogs as well as increasing the level of rabies immunity in domestic dogs. Conclusions: The basic reproductive number of rabies in China is still greater than 1. That is, China currently has insufficient measures to control rabies. The research on the transmission mode of rabies and control measures in this paper can provide theoretical support for rabies control in China. 

Retracted: No

PubPeer comments:
 This paper is about Rabies Virus. Some irrelevant papers are cited which are associated with Shaofei Wu. ![file] ![file] ![file] ![file] ![file] , 
 This paper has two authors Yihao Huang and Mingtao Li. It seems that Pubpeer shows something different for the author information. , 
 Readers should reassess the reliability of this paper as its bibliography includes **several questioned references** that are likely to be unreliable. So far, the following have been spotted: | Questioned Reference Cited | Details | | --- | --- | | [10.1016 j.cogsys.2018.07.035](6D858925403908B718BB7FC5D36D67) | [2018] _Cognitive Systems Research_: Bidirectional cognitive computing method supported by cloud technology. Shaofei Wu u2022 Mingqing Wang u2022 Yuntao Zou | | [10.1016 j.future.2018.04.040](65B33620FFE608F4FFA995EABCB0E3) | [2018] _Future Generation Computer Systems_: Research on internet information mining based on agent algorithm. Shaofei Wu u2022 Mingqing Wang u2022 Yuntao Zou | | [10.1007 s11227-019-02885-8](C009EECD294B38F00F3902E72E8B61) | [2019] _The Journal of Supercomputing_: Modeling method of internet public information data mining based on probabilistic topic model. Shaofei Wu u2022 Jun Liu u2022 Lizhi Liu | | [10.1063 1.5085430](CE03F139BAF2A155B6DB7286C97EF8) | [2019] _Chaos An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science_: Nonlinear information data mining based on time series for fractional differential operators. Shaofei Wu | According to [Dimensions] , this article has been [cited twice] . Flagged by the [_Problematic Paper Screener_] , [Feet of Clay] Detector. ,