Is a COVID-19 Vaccine Likely to Make Things Worse?
Authors: Stacey R Smith
Stéphanie M C Abo
Journal: Vaccines (2020)
Discipline: IMMUNOLOGY
Keywords: COVID-19; latin hypercube sampling; partial rank correlation coefficients; risk equations; vaccine.
Affiliations: Department of Applied Mathematics, The University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON N2L 4A1, Canada., Department of Mathematics and Faculty of Medicine, The University of Ottawa, 150 Louis-Pasteur Pvt, Ottawa, ON K1N 6N5, Canada.

Abstract:  In order to limit the disease burden and economic costs associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, it is important to understand how effective and widely distributed a vaccine must be in order to have a beneficial impact on public health. To evaluate the potential effect of a vaccine, we developed risk equations for the daily risk of COVID-19 infection both currently and after a vaccine becomes available. Our risk equations account for the basic transmission probability of COVID-19 (β) and the lowered risk due to various protection options: physical distancing; face coverings such as masks, goggles, face shields or other medical equipment; handwashing; and vaccination. We found that the outcome depends significantly on the degree of vaccine uptake: if uptake is higher than 80%, then the daily risk can be cut by 50% or more. However, if less than 40% of people get vaccinated and other protection options are abandoned-as may well happen in the wake of a COVID-19 vaccine-then introducing even an excellent vaccine will produce a worse outcome than our current situation. It is thus critical that effective education strategies are employed in tandem with vaccine rollout. 

Retracted: No

PubPeer comments:
 Fig 4A:  Comparison of the HXO-RB44 and SO-RB50 cell apoptosis after transfection. Note: A, apoptosis rates of HXO-RB44 cells in the eight groups . ![file] If there are differences between the IWR-1-endo and IWR-2-endo panels, I am unable to see them. The Bank, Negative Control and siRNA-2 panels have areas of overlap in the upper-left panels and lower-left corners - obscured in the case of siRNA-2 by a sideways displacement. , 
 Fig 4B.  B, apoptosis rates of SO-RB50 cells in the eight groups . ![file] Evidently the reviewers looked at these repetitions and thought  Yes! That s just what happens with flow cytometry when cells are sampled randomly from eight different distributions! , 
  Figure 5 Comparison of the HXO-RB44 and SO-RB50 cell invasion after transfection. Note: A: crystal violet staining result of HXO-RB44 cells and number of cells invade Matrigel; B, crystal violet staining result of SO-RB50 cells and number of cells invade Matrigel . ![file] Below: Fig. 5A,B from [Lu et al (2018)] .  Effect of miR-152 on migration and invasion of GIST-T1 cell by inhibiting CTSL. Notes. A: Cell migration in each group detected by Transwell method; B: Cell invasion in each group detected by Transwell method . Overlaps marked - some of them involve a horizontal or vertical flip. How these cells changed identities and experiment method, and found their way into the results of an unrelated research team, is an enduring mystery. , 
 #3 Further connections between Fig 5A B, ![] Fig 7 from [Wu et al (2017)] ![] and Fig 5A B from [Lu et al (2018)] . ![] , 
 Fig 5A B, horizontally flipped... ![file] ...to facilitate comparison with Fig 4C from [Che et al (2017)] ![file] ,