Global Prevalence of Myopia and High Myopia and Temporal Trends from 2000 through 2050
Authors: Padmaja Sankaridurg
Tien Y Wong
Timothy R Fricke
David A Wilson
Brien A Holden
Monica Jong
Thomas J Naduvilath
Kovin S Naidoo
Serge Resnikoff
Journal: Ophthalmology (2016)
Discipline: CLINICAL MEDICINE
Keywords: Myopia; high myopia; prevalence; meta-analysis; temporal trends
Affiliations: Brien Holden Vision Institute, Sydney, Australia; School of Optometry and Vision Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia., Brien Holden Vision Institute, Sydney, Australia., Brien Holden Vision Institute, Sydney, Australia; School of Optometry and Vision Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia; African Vision Research Institute, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa., Brien Holden Vision Institute, Sydney, Australia; School of Optometry and Vision Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia; African Vision Research Institute, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa. Electronic address: ., Singapore Eye Research Institute, Singapore National Eye Center, Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore, Republic of Singapore.

Abstract:  Purpose: Myopia is a common cause of vision loss, with uncorrected myopia the leading cause of distance vision impairment globally. Individual studies show variations in the prevalence of myopia and high myopia between regions and ethnic groups, and there continues to be uncertainty regarding increasing prevalence of myopia. Design: Systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of the prevalence of myopia and high myopia and estimated temporal trends from 2000 to 2050 using data published since 1995. The primary data were gathered into 5-year age groups from 0 to ‚â?00, in urban or rural populations in each country, standardized to definitions of myopia of -0.50 diopter (D) or less and of high myopia of -5.00 D or less, projected to the year 2010, then meta-analyzed within Global Burden of Disease (GBD) regions. Any urban or rural age group that lacked data in a GBD region took data from the most similar region. The prevalence data were combined with urbanization data and population data from United Nations Population Department (UNPD) to estimate the prevalence of myopia and high myopia in each country of the world. These estimates were combined with myopia change estimates over time derived from regression analysis of published evidence to project to each decade from 2000 through 2050. Results: We included data from 145 studies covering 2.1 million participants. We estimated 1406 million people with myopia (22.9% of the world population; 95% confidence interval [CI], 932-1932 million [15.2%-31.5%]) and 163 million people with high myopia (2.7% of the world population; 95% CI, 86-387 million [1.4%-6.3%]) in 2000. We predict by 2050 there will be 4758 million people with myopia (49.8% of the world population; 3620-6056 million [95% CI, 43.4%-55.7%]) and 938 million people with high myopia (9.8% of the world population; 479-2104 million [95% CI, 5.7%-19.4%]). Conclusions: Myopia and high myopia estimates from 2000 to 2050 suggest significant increases in prevalences globally, with implications for planning services, including managing and preventing myopia-related ocular complications and vision loss among almost 1 billion people with high myopia. 

Retracted: No

PubPeer comments:
 One of the most important papers on myopia that provides a robust evidence of the scale of the problem of myopia globally and prediction of myopia prevalence until 2050. ,