"

The question of head winds. Both the last forecast sent to Earhart and Noonan and their reported conditions agree. It is most likely that they were encountering headwinds as high as 23 knots. It is also certain from her reports that they had climbed considerably above the optimum altitudes early in the flight and thus had to have had considerable additional fuel consumption. I would  refer you to Kelly Johnson's instructions prepared for Earhart on the flight profile necessary to achieve optimum range. Given the variables which we cannot know, I would imagine that she had 1-2 hours reserve by the time she reached the vicinity of Howland - but that might be optimistic. I cannot know how much fuel she had. One radio log indicates she stated 1/2 hour (but did that include the remainder of 100 octane?). One thing for certain is that she did state she was ""low on fuel"" and that cannot be reasonably interpreted as meaning she was ""fat."" This is OPINION, but given the anxiety she seemed to have in her voice and her use of the term 'low on fuel,"" coupled with the forecast and reported (by her) winds, it is probable that they were far less than the optimum 4-5 hours given still air and best altitude operations would have made possible.

Mr. Gillespie can dismiss her report of ground speed and winds aloft as well as the far higher than optimum altitude she reported less than half way into the flight with the term ""speculation"" (in a foot note). No one did at the time, nor can I. (OPINION- but) Though this is my Opinion, I CAN document several aspects of it including  the airplane designers instructions and how his instructions for an optimum profile differed from her report. Her reports and how they coincided with the last forecast the USN sent her from Hawaii. And thus how if Kelly Johnson was right, True had not incompetently read the information about winds aloft from reporting stations near her path, and she was not lying; then she MUST have had significantly higher fuel consumption than the optimum profile would have produced. How much, that is a question I cannot specifically answer. But for all three to be totally wrong, for there have been still air, for True to have been incompetent in his interpretation of winds aloft reports, and Earhart to have been lying about the ""winds"" she reported and her ""speed"" takes a bit of ""speculation"" I cannot indulge in. Mistakes were made, but I can't imagine everyone made exactly the right combination of mistakes and deceptions to allow the Electra to have achieved it's optimum performance on the flight. Given the time which they apparently (from reports and signal strength) spent searching  for Howland Island, it is unlikely that they had a big reserve when the last signal was heard (OPINION). "