OpenRaiser/Intern-Atlas huggingface dataset:
Expert System for Bitcoin Forecasting: Integrating Global Liquidity via TimeXer Transformers
Venue: arXiv cs.LG 2026
Year: 2026

Bitcoin price forecasting is characterized by extreme volatility and non-stationarity, often defying traditional univariate time-series models over long horizons. This paper addresses a critical gap by integrating Global M2 Liquidity, aggregated from 18 major economies, as a leading exogenous variable with a 12-week lag structure. Using the TimeXer architecture, we compare a liquidity-conditioned forecasting model (TimeXer-Exog) against state-of-the-art benchmarks including LSTM, N-BEATS, PatchTST, and a standard univariate TimeXer. Experiments conducted on daily Bitcoin price data from January 2020 to August 2025 demonstrate that explicit macroeconomic conditioning significantly stabilizes long-horizon forecasts. At a 70-day forecast horizon, the proposed TimeXer-Exog model achieves a mean squared error (MSE) 1.08e8, outperforming the univariate TimeXer baseline by over 89 percent. These results highlight that conditioning deep learning models on global liquidity provides substantial improvements in long-horizon Bitcoin price forecasting.
AI-Generated Code Is Not Reproducible (Yet): An Empirical Study of Dependency Gaps in LLM-Based Coding Agents
Venue: arXiv cs.SE 2026
Year: 2026

The rise of Large Language Models (LLMs) as coding agents promises to accelerate software development, but their impact on generated code reproducibility remains largely unexplored. This paper presents an empirical study investigating whether LLM-generated code can be executed successfully in a clean environment with only OS packages and using only the dependencies that the model specifies. We evaluate three state-of-the-art LLM coding agents (Claude Code, OpenAI Codex, and Gemini) across 300 projects generated from 100 standardized prompts in Python, JavaScript, and Java. We introduce a three-layer dependency framework (distinguishing between claimed, working, and runtime dependencies) to quantify execution reproducibility. Our results show that only 68.3% of projects execute out-of-the-box, with substantial variation across languages (Python 89.2%, Java 44.0%). We also find a 13.5 times average expansion from declared to actual runtime dependencies, revealing significant hidden dependencies.
Nightjar: Dynamic Adaptive Speculative Decoding for Large Language Models Serving
Venue: arXiv cs.DC 2026
Year: 2026

Speculative decoding (SD) accelerates LLM inference by verifying draft tokens in parallel. However, this method presents a critical trade-off: it improves throughput in low-load, memory-bound systems but degrades performance in high-load, compute-bound environments due to verification overhead. Existing speculative decoding methods use fixed lengths and cannot adapt to workload changes or decide when to stop speculation. The cost of restarting speculative inference also remains unquantified. Under high load, the benefit of speculation diminishes, while retaining the draft model reduces KV-cache capacity, limiting batch size and degrading throughput. To overcome this, we propose Nightjar, a resource-aware adaptive speculative framework. It first adjusts to the request load by dynamically selecting the optimal speculative length for different batch sizes. Crucially, Nightjar proactively disables speculative decoding when the MAB planner determines that speculation is no longer beneficial, and during the disabled phase, offloads the draft model to the CPU only under GPU memory pressure. This reclaims memory for the KV cache, thereby facilitating larger batch sizes and maximizing overall system throughput. Experiments show that Nightjar achieves average 27.29% higher throughput and up to 20.18% lower latency compared to standard speculative decoding under dynamic request arrival rates in real-time LLM serving scenarios.
Accounting Reasoning in Large Language Models: Concepts, Evaluation, and Empirical Analysis
Venue: arXiv cs.CL 2026
Year: 2026

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly reshaping learning paradigms, cognitive processes, and research methodologies across diverse domains. As their adoption expands, effectively integrating LLMs into professional fields and clarifying their role in domain-specific applications has become a key challenge for enterprise digital transformation and broader societal development. In the accounting domain, successful integration requires a systematic understanding of LLMs' domain-specific reasoning capabilities. In this study, we introduce the concept of accounting reasoning and propose a set of evaluation criteria grounded in an analysis of the training data characteristics of representative GLM-series models. These criteria establish a foundation for studying accounting-oriented reasoning paradigms and provide benchmarks for assessing and improving model performance. Building on this framework, we evaluate several representative LLMs, including GLM-6B, GLM-130B, GLM-4, and GPT-4, across a range of accounting reasoning tasks. Our experimental results show that prompt engineering strategies can yield varying degrees of performance improvement across models, with GPT-4 demonstrating the strongest overall accounting reasoning capability. Nevertheless, the results indicate that current LLMs remain insufficient for real-world accounting applications. In particular, further optimization is required for deployment in enterprise-level accounting scenarios to fully realize the potential value of LLMs in this domain.
Towards Reliable Evaluation of Adversarial Robustness for Spiking Neural Networks
Venue: arXiv cs.LG 2026
Year: 2026

Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) utilize spike-based activations to mimic the brain's energy-efficient information processing. However, the binary and discontinuous nature of spike activations causes vanishing gradients, making adversarial robustness evaluation via gradient descent unreliable. While improved surrogate gradient methods have been proposed, their effectiveness under strong adversarial attacks remains unclear. We propose a more reliable framework for evaluating SNN adversarial robustness. We theoretically analyze the degree of gradient vanishing in surrogate gradients and introduce the Adaptive Sharpness Surrogate Gradient (ASSG), which adaptively evolves the shape of the surrogate function according to the input distribution during attack iterations, thereby enhancing gradient accuracy while mitigating gradient vanishing. In addition, we design an adversarial attack with adaptive step size under the $L_\infty$ constraint-Stable Adaptive Projected Gradient Descent (SA-PGD), achieving faster and more stable convergence under imprecise gradients. Extensive experiments show that our approach substantially increases attack success rates across diverse adversarial training schemes, SNN architectures and neuron models, providing a more generalized and reliable evaluation of SNN adversarial robustness. The experimental results further reveal that the robustness of current SNNs has been significantly overestimated and highlighting the need for more dependable adversarial training methods. The code is released at https://github.com/craree/ASSG-SNNs-Robustness-Evaluation
TravelBench: A Broader Real-World Benchmark for Multi-Turn and Tool-Using Travel Planning
Venue: arXiv cs.AI 2026
Year: 2026

Travel planning is a natural real-world task to test large language models (LLMs) planning and tool-use abilities. Although prior work has studied LLM performance on travel planning, existing settings still differ from real-world needs, mainly due to limited domain coverage, insufficient modeling of users' implicit preferences in multi-turn conversations, and a lack of clear evaluation of agents' capability boundaries. To mitigate these gaps, we propose \textbf{TravelBench}, a benchmark for fully real-world travel planning. We collect user queries, user profile and tools from real scenarios, and construct three subtasks-Single-Turn, Multi-Turn, and Unsolvable-to evaluate agent's three core capabilities in real settings: (1) solving problems autonomously, (2) interacting with users over multiple turns to refine requirements, and (3) recognizing the limits of own abilities. To enable stable tool invocation and reproducible evaluation, we cache real tool-call results and build a sandbox environment that integrates ten travel-related tools. Agents can combine these tools to solve most practical travel planning problems, and our systematic verification demonstrates the stability of the proposed benchmark. We further evaluate multiple LLMs on TravelBench and conduct an in-depth analysis of their behaviors and performance. TravelBench provides a practical and reproducible evaluation benchmark to advance research on LLM agents for travel planning.\footnote{Our code and data will be available after internal review.
Multi-Task Learning for Metal Alloy Property Prediction: An Empirical Study of Negative Transfer and Mitigation Strategies
Venue: arXiv cs.LG 2026
Year: 2026

Multi-task learning (MTL) in materials science relies on the assumption that physically related properties share learnable representations. We challenge this assumption using a 54,028-sample metal alloy dataset exhibiting extreme task-level imbalance. Our results reveal a striking dichotomy: MTL significantly degrades regression performance for resistivity and hardness but improves classification recall for amorphous-forming ability. We trace this divergence to mismatched functional forms--such as resistivity's polynomial dependence versus hardness's complex interactions--which cause severe gradient misalignment during optimization. Evaluating Deep Imbalanced Regression techniques, we find that projecting conflicting gradients (PCGrad) recovers single-task performance, while combining label distribution smoothing with gradient normalization achieves the best overall balance. Consequently, we propose a strategic framework: utilize independent models for high-precision characterization, but employ MTL for high-throughput screening where recall is paramount. These findings support a "materials property clustering" hypothesis, suggesting that distinct physical mechanisms require specialized optimization strategies to overcome negative transfer.
Diversity or Precision? A Deep Dive into Next Token Prediction
Venue: arXiv cs.CL 2026
Year: 2026

Recent advancements have shown that reinforcement learning (RL) can substantially improve the reasoning abilities of large language models (LLMs). The effectiveness of such RL training, however, depends critically on the exploration space defined by the pre-trained model's token-output distribution. In this paper, we revisit the standard cross-entropy loss, interpreting it as a specific instance of policy gradient optimization applied within a single-step episode. To systematically study how the pre-trained distribution shapes the exploration potential for subsequent RL, we propose a generalized pre-training objective that adapts on-policy RL principles to supervised learning. By framing next-token prediction as a stochastic decision process, we introduce a reward-shaping strategy that explicitly balances diversity and precision. Our method employs a positive reward scaling factor to control probability concentration on ground-truth tokens and a rank-aware mechanism that treats high-ranking and low-ranking negative tokens asymmetrically. This allows us to reshape the pre-trained token-output distribution and investigate how to provide a more favorable exploration space for RL, ultimately enhancing end-to-end reasoning performance. Contrary to the intuition that higher distribution entropy facilitates effective exploration, we find that imposing a precision-oriented prior yields a superior exploration space for RL.
RealCamo: Boosting Real Camouflage Synthesis with Layout Controls and Textual-Visual Guidance
Venue: arXiv cs.CV 2026
Year: 2026

Camouflaged image generation (CIG) has recently emerged as an efficient alternative for acquiring high-quality training data for camouflaged object detection (COD). However, existing CIG methods still suffer from a substantial gap to real camouflaged imagery: generated images either lack sufficient camouflage due to weak visual similarity, or exhibit cluttered backgrounds that are semantically inconsistent with foreground targets. To address these limitations, we propose RealCamo, a novel out-painting-based framework for controllable realistic camouflaged image generation. RealCamo explicitly introduces additional layout controls to regulate global image structure, thereby improving semantic coherence between foreground objects and generated backgrounds. Moreover, we construct a multimodal textual-visual condition by combining a unified fine-grained textual task description with texture-oriented background retrieval, which jointly guides the generation process to enhance visual fidelity and realism. To quantitatively assess camouflage quality, we further introduce a background-foreground distribution divergence metric that measures the effectiveness of camouflage in generated images. Extensive experiments and visualizations demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed framework.
Video-Browser: Towards Agentic Open-web Video Browsing
Venue: arXiv cs.CV 2026
Year: 2026

The evolution of autonomous agents is redefining information seeking, transitioning from passive retrieval to proactive, open-ended web research. However, a significant modality gap remains in processing the web's most dynamic and information-dense modality: video. In this paper, we first formalize the task of Agentic Video Browsing and introduce Video-BrowseComp, a benchmark evaluating open-ended agentic browsing tasks that enforce a mandatory dependency on videos. We observe that current paradigms struggle to reconcile the scale of open-ended video exploration with the need for fine-grained visual verification. Direct visual inference (e.g., RAG) maximizes perception but incurs prohibitive context costs, while text-centric summarization optimizes efficiency but often misses critical visual details required for accurate grounding. To address this, we propose Video-Browser, a novel agent leveraging Pyramidal Perception, filtering with cheap metadata and zooming in with expensive visual perception only when necessary. Experiments demonstrate that our approach achieves a 37.5% relative improvement while reducing token consumption by 58.3% compared to Direct visual inference, establishing a foundation for verifiable open-web video research. We open-source all codes, benchmark at {https://anonymous.4open.science/r/VideoBrowser} and {https://github.com/chrisx599/Video-Browser}.
Person Parametric Physics-informed Representation for mmWave-based Human Pose Estimation
Venue: arXiv cs.HC 2026
Year: 2026

Millimeter-wave (mmWave) radar enables privacy-preserving, illumination-invariant Human Pose Estimation (HPE). However, current mmWave-based HPE systems face a signal-noise dilemma: Heatmaps retain human reflections but embed environmental clutter, while Point Clouds (PC) suppress noise through aggressive thresholding but discard informative human reflections, limiting robustness across environments and radar configurations. To address this intrinsic bottleneck, we introduce Person Parametric Physics-informed Representation (PPPR), a physics-informed parametric intermediate representation that replaces purely signal-level encodings with human-centric parameterization. PPPR models each human joint as a Gaussian primitive encoding both kinematic properties, which include position, velocity, orientation, and electromagnetic properties, which include scattering intensity and Doppler signature. These parameters enable optimization through a dual-constraint process: kinematic objectives enforce biomechanical consistency to suppress spatial artifacts, while electromagnetic objectives ensure adherence to mmWave propagation physics, decoupling input representations from non-human noise. Experiments across three mmWave-based HPE datasets with four HPE models demonstrate that replacing conventional inputs with PPPR consistently yields substantial accuracy gains. Furthermore, cross-scenes and cross-datasets experiments confirm PPPR's noise decoupling capability: models trained with PPPR maintain stable performance across diverse furniture arrangements and different radar chipsets, demonstrating its promising generalization capability in the challenging cross-dataset settings. Code will be released upon publication.
GLiSE: A Prompt-Driven and ML-Powered Tool for Automated Grey Literature Extraction in Software Engineering
Venue: arXiv cs.SE 2026
Year: 2026

Grey literature is essential to software engineering research as it captures practices and decisions that rarely appear in academic venues. However, collecting and assessing it at scale remains difficult because of their heterogeneous sources, formats, and APIs that impede reproducible, large-scale synthesis. To address this issue, we present GLiSE, a prompt-driven tool that turns a research topic prompt into platform-specific queries, gathers results from common software-engineering web sources (GitHub, Stack Overflow) and Google Search, and uses embedding-based semantic classifiers to filter and rank results according to their relevance. GLiSE is designed for reproducibility with all settings being configuration-based, and every generated query being accessible. In this paper, (i) we present the GLiSE tool, (ii) provide a curated dataset of software engineering grey-literature search results classified by semantic relevance to their originating search intent, and (iii) conduct an empirical study on the usability of our tool.
Trust Region Masking for Long-Horizon LLM Reinforcement Learning
Venue: arXiv cs.LG 2026
Year: 2026

Policy gradient methods for Large Language Models optimize a policy $π_θ$ via a surrogate objective computed from samples of a rollout policy $π_{\text{roll}}$. However, modern LLM-RL pipelines suffer from unavoidable implementation divergences -- backend discrepancies, Mixture-of-Experts routing discontinuities, and distributed training staleness -- causing off-policy mismatch ($π_{\text{roll}} \neq π_θ$) and approximation errors between the surrogate and the true objective. We demonstrate that classical trust region bounds on this error scale as $O(T^2)$ with sequence length $T$, rendering them vacuous for long-horizon tasks. To address this, we derive a family of bounds -- both KL-based and TV-based -- including a Pinsker-Marginal bound ($O(T^{3/2})$), a Mixed bound ($O(T)$), and an Adaptive bound that strictly generalizes the Pinsker-Marginal bound via per-position importance-ratio decomposition. Taking the minimum over all bounds yields the tightest known guarantee across all divergence regimes. Crucially, all bounds depend on the maximum token-level divergence $D_{\mathrm{KL}}^{\mathrm{tok,max}}$ (or $D_{\mathrm{TV}}^{\mathrm{tok,max}}$), a sequence-level quantity that cannot be controlled by token-independent methods like PPO clipping. We propose Trust Region Masking (TRM), which masks entire sequences violating the trust region, enabling the first non-vacuous monotonic improvement guarantees for long-horizon LLM-RL.
Benchmark Success, Clinical Failure: When Reinforcement Learning Optimizes for Benchmarks, Not Patients
Venue: arXiv cs.AI 2026
Year: 2026

Recent Reinforcement Learning (RL) advances for Large Language Models (LLMs) have improved reasoning tasks, yet their resource-constrained application to medical imaging remains underexplored. We introduce ChexReason, a vision-language model trained via R1-style methodology (SFT followed by GRPO) using only 2,000 SFT samples, 1,000 RL samples, and a single A100 GPU. Evaluations on CheXpert and NIH benchmarks reveal a fundamental tension: GRPO recovers in-distribution performance (23% improvement on CheXpert, macro-F1 = 0.346) but degrades cross-dataset transferability (19% drop on NIH). This mirrors high-resource models like NV-Reason-CXR-3B, suggesting the issue stems from the RL paradigm rather than scale. We identify a generalization paradox where the SFT checkpoint uniquely improves on NIH before optimization, indicating teacher-guided reasoning captures more institution-agnostic features. Furthermore, cross-model comparisons show structured reasoning scaffolds benefit general-purpose VLMs but offer minimal gain for medically pre-trained models. Consequently, curated supervised fine-tuning may outperform aggressive RL for clinical deployment requiring robustness across diverse populations.
Cosmos-H-Surgical: Learning Surgical Robot Policies from Videos via World Modeling
Venue: arXiv cs.RO 2026
Year: 2026

Data scarcity remains a fundamental barrier to achieving fully autonomous surgical robots. While large scale vision language action (VLA) models have shown impressive generalization in household and industrial manipulation by leveraging paired video action data from diverse domains, surgical robotics suffers from the paucity of datasets that include both visual observations and accurate robot kinematics. In contrast, vast corpora of surgical videos exist, but they lack corresponding action labels, preventing direct application of imitation learning or VLA training. In this work, we aim to alleviate this problem by learning policy models from Cosmos-H-Surgical, a world model designed for surgical physical AI. We curated the Surgical Action Text Alignment (SATA) dataset with detailed action description specifically for surgical robots. Then we built Cosmos-H-Surgical based on the most advanced physical AI world model and SATA. It's able to generate diverse, generalizable and realistic surgery videos. We are also the first to use an inverse dynamics model to infer pseudokinematics from synthetic surgical videos, producing synthetic paired video action data. We demonstrate that a surgical VLA policy trained with these augmented data significantly outperforms models trained only on real demonstrations on a real surgical robot platform. Our approach offers a scalable path toward autonomous surgical skill acquisition by leveraging the abundance of unlabeled surgical video and generative world modeling, thus opening the door to generalizable and data efficient surgical robot policies.