OpenRaiser/Intern-Atlas huggingface dataset:
Enhancing Transformer-Based Foundation Models for Time Series Forecasting via Bagging, Boosting and Statistical Ensembles
Venue: arXiv cs.LG 2025
Year: 2025

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) such as Lag-Llama, TimeGPT, Chronos, MOMENT, UniTS, and TimesFM have shown strong generalization and zero-shot capabilities for time series forecasting, anomaly detection, classification, and imputation. Despite these advantages, their predictions still suffer from variance, domain-specific bias, and limited uncertainty quantification when deployed on real operational data. This paper investigates a suite of statistical and ensemble-based enhancement techniques, including bootstrap-based bagging, regression-based stacking, prediction interval construction, statistical residual modeling, and iterative error feedback, to improve robustness and accuracy. Using the Belgium Electricity Short-Term Load Forecasting dataset as a case study, we demonstrate that the proposed hybrids consistently outperform standalone foundation models across multiple horizons. Regression-based ensembles achieve the lowest mean squared error; bootstrap aggregation markedly reduces long-context errors; residual modeling corrects systematic bias; and the resulting prediction intervals achieve near nominal coverage with widths shrinking as context length increases. The results indicate that integrating statistical reasoning with modern foundation models yields measurable gains in accuracy, reliability, and interpretability for real-world time series applications.
From Classical Probabilistic Latent Variable Models to Modern Generative AI: A Unified Perspective
Venue: arXiv cs.LG 2025
Year: 2025

From large language models to multi-modal agents, Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) now underpins state-of-the-art systems. Despite their varied architectures, many share a common foundation in probabilistic latent variable models (PLVMs), where hidden variables explain observed data for density estimation, latent reasoning, and structured inference. This paper presents a unified perspective by framing both classical and modern generative methods within the PLVM paradigm. We trace the progression from classical flat models such as probabilistic PCA, Gaussian mixture models, latent class analysis, item response theory, and latent Dirichlet allocation, through their sequential extensions including Hidden Markov Models, Gaussian HMMs, and Linear Dynamical Systems, to contemporary deep architectures: Variational Autoencoders as Deep PLVMs, Normalizing Flows as Tractable PLVMs, Diffusion Models as Sequential PLVMs, Autoregressive Models as Explicit Generative Models, and Generative Adversarial Networks as Implicit PLVMs. Viewing these architectures under a common probabilistic taxonomy reveals shared principles, distinct inference strategies, and the representational trade-offs that shape their strengths. We offer a conceptual roadmap that consolidates generative AI's theoretical foundations, clarifies methodological lineages, and guides future innovation by grounding emerging architectures in their probabilistic heritage.
Cognitive Agents Powered by Large Language Models for Agile Software Project Management
Venue: arXiv cs.SE 2025
Year: 2025

This paper investigates the integration of cognitive agents powered by Large Language Models (LLMs) within the Scaled Agile Framework (SAFe) to reinforce software project management. By deploying virtual agents in simulated software environments, this study explores their potential to fulfill fundamental roles in IT project development, thereby optimizing project outcomes through intelligent automation. Particular emphasis is placed on the adaptability of these agents to Agile methodologies and their transformative impact on decision-making, problem-solving, and collaboration dynamics. The research leverages the CogniSim ecosystem, a platform designed to simulate real-world software engineering challenges, such as aligning technical capabilities with business objectives, managing interdependencies, and maintaining project agility. Through iterative simulations, cognitive agents demonstrate advanced capabilities in task delegation, inter-agent communication, and project lifecycle management. By employing natural language processing to facilitate meaningful dialogues, these agents emulate human roles and improve the efficiency and precision of Agile practices. Key findings from this investigation highlight the ability of LLM-powered cognitive agents to deliver measurable improvements in various metrics, including task completion times, quality of deliverables, and communication coherence. These agents exhibit scalability and adaptability, ensuring their applicability across diverse and complex project environments. This study underscores the potential of integrating LLM-powered agents into Agile project management frameworks as a means of advancing software engineering practices. This integration not only refines the execution of project management tasks but also sets the stage for a paradigm shift in how teams collaborate and address emerging challenges.
CALR: Corrective Adaptive Low-Rank Decomposition for Efficient Large Language Model Layer Compression
Venue: arXiv cs.LG 2025
Year: 2025

Large Language Models (LLMs) present significant deployment challenges due to their immense size and computational requirements. Model compression techniques are essential for making these models practical for resource-constrained environments. A prominent compression strategy is low-rank factorization via Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) to reduce model parameters by approximating weight matrices. However, standard SVD focuses on minimizing matrix reconstruction error, often leading to a substantial loss of the model's functional performance. This performance degradation occurs because existing methods do not adequately correct for the functional information lost during compression. To address this gap, we introduce Corrective Adaptive Low-Rank Decomposition (CALR), a two-component compression approach. CALR combines a primary path of SVD-compressed layers with a parallel, learnable, low-rank corrective module that is explicitly trained to recover the functional residual error. Our experimental evaluation on SmolLM2-135M, Qwen3-0.6B, and Llama-3.2-1B, demonstrates that CALR can reduce parameter counts by 26.93% to 51.77% while retaining 59.45% to 90.42% of the original model's performance, consistently outperforming LaCo, ShortGPT, and LoSparse. CALR's success shows that treating functional information loss as a learnable signal is a highly effective compression paradigm. This approach enables the creation of significantly smaller, more efficient LLMs, advancing their accessibility and practical deployment in real-world applications.
Revisiting Rule-Based Stuttering Detection: A Comprehensive Analysis of Interpretable Models for Clinical Applications
Venue: arXiv cs.AI 2025
Year: 2025

Stuttering affects approximately 1% of the global population, impacting communication and quality of life. While recent advances in deep learning have pushed the boundaries of automatic speech dysfluency detection, rule-based approaches remain crucial for clinical applications where interpretability and transparency are paramount. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of rule-based stuttering detection systems, synthesizing insights from multiple corpora including UCLASS, FluencyBank, and SEP-28k. We propose an enhanced rule-based framework that incorporates speaking-rate normalization, multi-level acoustic feature analysis, and hierarchical decision structures. Our approach achieves competitive performance while maintaining complete interpretability-critical for clinical adoption. We demonstrate that rule-based systems excel particularly in prolongation detection (97-99% accuracy) and provide stable performance across varying speaking rates. Furthermore, we show how these interpretable models can be integrated with modern machine learning pipelines as proposal generators or constraint modules, bridging the gap between traditional speech pathology practices and contemporary AI systems. Our analysis reveals that while neural approaches may achieve marginally higher accuracy in unconstrained settings, rule-based methods offer unique advantages in clinical contexts where decision auditability, patient-specific tuning, and real-time feedback are essential.
STGAtt: A Spatial-Temporal Unified Graph Attention Network for Traffic Flow Forecasting
Venue: arXiv cs.LG 2025
Year: 2025

Accurate and timely traffic flow forecasting is crucial for intelligent transportation systems. This paper presents a novel deep learning model, the Spatial-Temporal Unified Graph Attention Network (STGAtt). By leveraging a unified graph representation and an attention mechanism, STGAtt effectively captures complex spatial-temporal dependencies. Unlike methods relying on separate spatial and temporal dependency modeling modules, STGAtt directly models correlations within a Spatial-Temporal Unified Graph, dynamically weighing connections across both dimensions. To further enhance its capabilities, STGAtt partitions traffic flow observation signal into neighborhood subsets and employs a novel exchanging mechanism, enabling effective capture of both short-range and long-range correlations. Extensive experiments on the PEMS-BAY and SHMetro datasets demonstrate STGAtt's superior performance compared to state-of-the-art baselines across various prediction horizons. Visualization of attention weights confirms STGAtt's ability to adapt to dynamic traffic patterns and capture long-range dependencies, highlighting its potential for real-world traffic flow forecasting applications.
Multidimensional Distributional Neural Network Output Demonstrated in Super-Resolution of Surface Wind Speed
Venue: arXiv cs.LG 2025
Year: 2025

Accurate quantification of uncertainty in neural network predictions remains a central challenge for scientific applications involving high-dimensional, correlated data. While existing methods capture either aleatoric or epistemic uncertainty, few offer closed-form, multidimensional distributions that preserve spatial correlation while remaining computationally tractable. In this work, we present a framework for training neural networks with a multidimensional Gaussian loss, generating closed-form predictive distributions over outputs with non-identically distributed and heteroscedastic structure. Our approach captures aleatoric uncertainty by iteratively estimating the means and covariance matrices, and is demonstrated on a super-resolution example. We leverage a Fourier representation of the covariance matrix to stabilize network training and preserve spatial correlation. We introduce a novel regularization strategy -- referred to as information sharing -- that interpolates between image-specific and global covariance estimates, enabling convergence of the super-resolution downscaling network trained on image-specific distributional loss functions. This framework allows for efficient sampling, explicit correlation modeling, and extensions to more complex distribution families all without disrupting prediction performance. We demonstrate the method on a surface wind speed downscaling task and discuss its broader applicability to uncertainty-aware prediction in scientific models.
Generative Artificial Intelligence and Agents in Research and Teaching
Venue: arXiv cs.CY 2025
Year: 2025

This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the development, functioning, and application of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) and large language models (LLMs), with an emphasis on their implications for research and education. It traces the conceptual evolution from artificial intelligence (AI) through machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) to transformer architectures, which constitute the foundation of contemporary generative systems. Technical aspects, including prompting strategies, word embeddings, and probabilistic sampling methods (temperature, top-k, and top-p), are examined alongside the emergence of autonomous agents. These elements are considered in relation to both the opportunities they create and the limitations and risks they entail. The work critically evaluates the integration of GenAI across the research process, from ideation and literature review to research design, data collection, analysis, interpretation, and dissemination. While particular attention is given to geographical research, the discussion extends to wider academic contexts. A parallel strand addresses the pedagogical applications of GenAI, encompassing course and lesson design, teaching delivery, assessment, and feedback, with geography education serving as a case example. Central to the analysis are the ethical, social, and environmental challenges posed by GenAI. Issues of bias, intellectual property, governance, and accountability are assessed, alongside the ecological footprint of LLMs and emerging technological strategies for mitigation. The concluding section considers near- and long-term futures of GenAI, including scenarios of sustained adoption, regulation, and potential decline. By situating GenAI within both scholarly practice and educational contexts, the study contributes to critical debates on its transformative potential and societal responsibilities.
A novel auxiliary equation neural networks method for exactly explicit solutions of nonlinear partial differential equations
Venue: arXiv cs.LG 2025
Year: 2025

In this study, we firstly propose an auxiliary equation neural networks method (AENNM), an innovative analytical method that integrates neural networks (NNs) models with the auxiliary equation method to obtain exact solutions of nonlinear partial differential equations (NLPDEs). A key novelty of this method is the introduction of a novel activation function derived from the solutions of the Riccati equation, establishing a new mathematical link between differential equations theory and deep learning. By combining the strong approximation capability of NNs with the high precision of symbolic computation, AENNM significantly enhances computational efficiency and accuracy. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the AENNM in solving NLPDEs, three numerical examples are investigated, including the nonlinear evolution equation, the Korteweg-de Vries-Burgers equation, and the (2+1)-dimensional Boussinesq equation. Furthermore, some new trial functions are constructed by setting specific activation functions within the "2-2-2-1" and "3-2-2-1" NNs models. By embedding the auxiliary equation method into the NNs framework, we derive previously unreported solutions. The exact analytical solutions are expressed in terms of hyperbolic functions, trigonometric functions, and rational functions. Finally, three-dimensional plots, contour plots, and density plots are presented to illustrate the dynamic characteristics of the obtained solutions. This research provides a novel methodological framework for addressing NLPDEs, with broad applicability across scientific and engineering fields.
AI Product Value Assessment Model: An Interdisciplinary Integration Based on Information Theory, Economics, and Psychology
Venue: arXiv cs.CY 2025
Year: 2025

In recent years, breakthroughs in artificial intelligence (AI) technology have triggered global industrial transformations, with applications permeating various fields such as finance, healthcare, education, and manufacturing. However, this rapid iteration is accompanied by irrational development, where enterprises blindly invest due to technology hype, often overlooking systematic value assessments. This paper develops a multi-dimensional evaluation model that integrates information theory's entropy reduction principle, economics' bounded rationality framework, and psychology's irrational decision theories to quantify AI product value. Key factors include positive dimensions (e.g., uncertainty elimination, efficiency gains, cost savings, decision quality improvement) and negative risks (e.g., error probability, impact, and correction costs). A non-linear formula captures factor couplings, and validation through 10 commercial cases demonstrates the model's effectiveness in distinguishing successful and failed products, supporting hypotheses on synergistic positive effects, non-linear negative impacts, and interactive regulations. Results reveal value generation logic, offering enterprises tools to avoid blind investments and promote rational AI industry development. Future directions include adaptive weights, dynamic mechanisms, and extensions to emerging AI technologies like generative models.
Error Reflection Prompting: Can Large Language Models Successfully Understand Errors?
Venue: arXiv cs.CL 2025
Year: 2025

Prompting methods for language models, such as Chain-of-thought (CoT), present intuitive step-by-step processes for problem solving. These methodologies aim to equip models with a better understanding of the correct procedures for addressing a given task. Despite these advancements, CoT lacks the ability of reflection and error correction, potentially causing a model to perpetuate mistakes and errors. Therefore, inspired by the human ability for said tasks, we propose Error Reflection Prompting (ERP) to further enhance reasoning in language models. Building upon CoT, ERP is a method comprised of an incorrect answer, error recognition, and a correct answer. This process enables the model to recognize types of errors and the steps that lead to incorrect answers, allowing the model to better discern which steps to avoid and which to take. The model is able to generate the error outlines itself with automated ERP generation, allowing for error recognition and correction to be integrated into the reasoning chain and produce scalability and reliability in the process. The results demonstrate that ERP serves as a versatile supplement to conventional CoT, ultimately contributing to more robust and capable reasoning abilities along with increased interpretability in how models ultimately reach their errors.
Explainable AI for Predicting and Understanding Mathematics Achievement: A Cross-National Analysis of PISA 2018
Venue: arXiv cs.AI 2025
Year: 2025

Understanding the factors that shape students' mathematics performance is vital for designing effective educational policies. This study applies explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques to PISA 2018 data to predict math achievement and identify key predictors across ten countries (67,329 students). We tested four models: Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Random Forest (RF), CATBoost, and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), using student, family, and school variables. Models were trained on 70% of the data (with 5-fold cross-validation) and tested on 30%, stratified by country. Performance was assessed with R^2 and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). To ensure interpretability, we used feature importance, SHAP values, and decision tree visualizations. Non-linear models, especially RF and ANN, outperformed MLR, with RF balancing accuracy and generalizability. Key predictors included socio-economic status, study time, teacher motivation, and students' attitudes toward mathematics, though their impact varied across countries. Visual diagnostics such as scatterplots of predicted vs actual scores showed RF and CATBoost aligned closely with actual performance. Findings highlight the non-linear and context-dependent nature of achievement and the value of XAI in educational research. This study uncovers cross-national patterns, informs equity-focused reforms, and supports the development of personalized learning strategies.
How Good are LLM-based Rerankers? An Empirical Analysis of State-of-the-Art Reranking Models
Venue: arXiv cs.CL 2025
Year: 2025

In this work, we present a systematic and comprehensive empirical evaluation of state-of-the-art reranking methods, encompassing large language model (LLM)-based, lightweight contextual, and zero-shot approaches, with respect to their performance in information retrieval tasks. We evaluate in total 22 methods, including 40 variants (depending on used LLM) across several established benchmarks, including TREC DL19, DL20, and BEIR, as well as a novel dataset designed to test queries unseen by pretrained models. Our primary goal is to determine, through controlled and fair comparisons, whether a performance disparity exists between LLM-based rerankers and their lightweight counterparts, particularly on novel queries, and to elucidate the underlying causes of any observed differences. To disentangle confounding factors, we analyze the effects of training data overlap, model architecture, and computational efficiency on reranking performance. Our findings indicate that while LLM-based rerankers demonstrate superior performance on familiar queries, their generalization ability to novel queries varies, with lightweight models offering comparable efficiency. We further identify that the novelty of queries significantly impacts reranking effectiveness, highlighting limitations in existing approaches. https://github.com/DataScienceUIBK/llm-reranking-generalization-study
Latent Graph Learning in Generative Models of Neural Signals
Venue: arXiv cs.LG 2025
Year: 2025

Inferring temporal interaction graphs and higher-order structure from neural signals is a key problem in building generative models for systems neuroscience. Foundation models for large-scale neural data represent shared latent structures of neural signals. However, extracting interpretable latent graph representations in foundation models remains challenging and unsolved. Here we explore latent graph learning in generative models of neural signals. By testing against numerical simulations of neural circuits with known ground-truth connectivity, we evaluate several hypotheses for explaining learned model weights. We discover modest alignment between extracted network representations and the underlying directed graphs and strong alignment in the co-input graph representations. These findings motivate paths towards incorporating graph-based geometric constraints in the construction of large-scale foundation models for neural data.
On systematic construction of correct logic programs
Venue: arXiv cs.LO 2025
Year: 2025

Partial correctness of imperative or functional programming divides in logic programming into two notions. Correctness means that all answers of the program are compatible with the specification. Completeness means that the program produces all the answers required by the specifications. We also consider semi-completeness -- completeness for those queries for which the program does not diverge. This paper presents an approach to systematically construct provably correct and semi-complete logic programs, for a given specification. Normal programs are considered, under Kunen's 3-valued completion semantics (of negation as finite failure) and the well-founded semantics (of negation as possibly infinite failure). The approach is declarative, it abstracts from details of operational semantics, like e.g.\ the form of the selected literals (``procedure calls'') during the computation. The proposed method is simple, and can be used (maybe informally) in actual everyday programming.