OpenRaiser/Intern-Atlas huggingface dataset:
The Narrow Depth and Breadth of Corporate Responsible AI Research
Venue: arXiv cs.CY 2026
Year: 2026

The transformative potential of AI presents remarkable opportunities, but also significant risks, underscoring the importance of responsible AI development and deployment. Despite a growing emphasis on this area, there is limited understanding of industry's engagement in responsible AI research, i.e., the systematic examination of AI's ethical, social, and legal dimensions. To address this gap, we analyzed over 6 million peer-reviewed articles and 32 million patent citations using multiple methods across five distinct datasets to quantify industry's engagement. Our analysis reveals notable heterogeneity between industry's substantial presence in conventional AI research and its comparatively modest engagement in responsible AI. Leading AI firms exhibit significantly lower output in responsible AI research compared to their conventional AI research and the contributions of leading academic institutions. Our linguistic analysis reveals a more concentrated scope of responsible AI research within industry, with fewer distinct key topics addressed. Our large-scale patent citation analysis uncovers limited linkage between responsible AI research and the commercialization of AI technologies, suggesting that industry patents infrequently draw upon insights from the responsible AI literature. These patterns raise important questions about the integration of responsible AI considerations into commercialization practices, with potential implications for the alignment of AI development with broader societal objectives. Our results highlight the need for industry to publicly engage in responsible AI research to absorb academic knowledge, cultivate public trust, and proactively address the societal dimensions of AI development.
LoRA-Ensemble: Efficient Uncertainty Modelling for Self-Attention Networks
Venue: arXiv cs.LG 2026
Year: 2026

Numerous real-world decisions rely on machine learning algorithms and require calibrated uncertainty estimates. However, modern methods often yield overconfident, uncalibrated predictions. The dominant approach to quantifying the uncertainty inherent in the model is to train an ensemble of separate predictors and measure their empirical variance. In an explicit implementation, the ensemble has a high computational cost and memory footprint, especially if the base model itself is already large, like modern transformers. This motivates efforts to develop implicit ensemble methods that emulate the ensemble without explicitly instantiating all its members. We introduce LoRA-Ensemble, a parameter-efficient ensembling method for self-attention networks. It is based on Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA), originally developed for efficient LLM fine-tuning, and extends it into an implicit ensembling scheme, where all ensemble members share the same, pre-trained self-attention network, but have individual low-rank matrices for the attention projections. The resulting method not only outperforms state-of-the-art implicit techniques like BatchEnsemble, but even matches or exceeds the accuracy of an Explicit Ensemble, while at the same time achieving superior calibration.
In-context Time Series Predictor
Venue: arXiv cs.LG 2026
Year: 2026

Recent Transformer-based large language models (LLMs) demonstrate in-context learning ability to perform various functions based solely on the provided context, without updating model parameters. To fully utilize the in-context capabilities in time series forecasting (TSF) problems, unlike previous Transformer-based or LLM-based time series forecasting methods, we reformulate "time series forecasting tasks" as input tokens by constructing a series of (lookback, future) pairs within the tokens. This method aligns more closely with the inherent in-context mechanisms, and is more parameter-efficient without the need of using pre-trained LLM parameters. Furthermore, it addresses issues such as overfitting in existing Transformer-based TSF models, consistently achieving better performance across full-data, few-shot, and zero-shot settings compared to previous architectures.
A Counterfactual Analysis of the Dishonest Casino
Venue: arXiv cs.LG 2026
Year: 2026

The dishonest casino is a well-known hidden Markov model (HMM) often used in education to introduce HMMs and graphical models. A sequence of die rolls is observed with the casino switching between a fair and a loaded die. Instead of recovering the latent regime through filtering, smoothing, or the Viterbi algorithm, we ask a counterfactual question: how much of the gambler's winnings are caused by the casino's cheating? We introduce a class of structural causal models (SCMs) consistent with the HMM and define the expected winnings attributable to cheating (EWAC). Because EWAC is only partially identifiable, we bound it via linear programs (LPs). Numerical experiments help to develop intuition using benchmark SCMs based on independence, comonotonic, and countermonotonic copulas. Imposing a time homogeneity condition on the SCM yields tighter bounds, whereas relaxing it produces looser bounds that admit an explicit LP solution. Domain knowledge such as pathwise monotonicity or counterfactual stability can be incorporated through additional linear constraints. Finally, we show the time-averaged EWAC becomes fully identifiable as the number of time periods tends to infinity. Our work is the first to develop LP bounds for counterfactuals in an HMM setting, benefiting educational contexts where counterfactual inference is taught.
On the Identification of Temporally Causal Representation with Instantaneous Dependence
Venue: arXiv cs.LG 2026
Year: 2026

Temporally causal representation learning aims to identify the latent causal process from time series observations, but most methods require the assumption that the latent causal processes do not have instantaneous relations. Although some recent methods achieve identifiability in the instantaneous causality case, they require either interventions on the latent variables or grouping of the observations, which are in general difficult to obtain in real-world scenarios. To fill this gap, we propose an \textbf{ID}entification framework for instantane\textbf{O}us \textbf{L}atent dynamics (\textbf{IDOL}) by imposing a sparse influence constraint that the latent causal processes have sparse time-delayed and instantaneous relations. Specifically, we establish identifiability results of the latent causal process based on sufficient variability and the sparse influence constraint by employing contextual information of time series data. Based on these theories, we incorporate a temporally variational inference architecture to estimate the latent variables and a gradient-based sparsity regularization to identify the latent causal process. Experimental results on simulation datasets illustrate that our method can identify the latent causal process. Furthermore, evaluations on multiple human motion forecasting benchmarks with instantaneous dependencies indicate the effectiveness of our method in real-world settings.
Boosting Adversarial Transferability with Low-Cost Optimization via Maximin Expected Flatness
Venue: arXiv cs.CV 2026
Year: 2026

Transfer-based attacks craft adversarial examples on white-box surrogate models and directly deploy them against black-box target models, offering model-agnostic and query-free threat scenarios. While flatness-enhanced methods have recently emerged to improve transferability by enhancing the loss surface flatness of adversarial examples, their divergent flatness definitions and heuristic attack designs suffer from unexamined optimization limitations and missing theoretical foundation, thus constraining their effectiveness and efficiency. This work exposes the severely imbalanced exploitation-exploration dynamics in flatness optimization, establishing the first theoretical foundation for flatness-based transferability and proposing a principled framework to overcome these optimization pitfalls. Specifically, we systematically unify fragmented flatness definitions across existing methods, revealing their imbalanced optimization limitations in over-exploration of sensitivity peaks or over-exploitation of local plateaus. To resolve these issues, we rigorously formalize average-case flatness and transferability gaps, proving that enhancing zeroth-order average-case flatness minimizes cross-model discrepancies. Building on this theory, we design a Maximin Expected Flatness (MEF) attack that enhances zeroth-order average-case flatness while balancing flatness exploration and exploitation. Extensive evaluations across 22 models and 24 current transfer-based attacks demonstrate MEF's superiority: it surpasses the state-of-the-art PGN attack by 4% in attack success rate at half the computational cost and achieves 8% higher success rate under the same budget. When combined with input augmentation, MEF attains 15% additional gains against defense-equipped models, establishing new robustness benchmarks. Our code is available at https://github.com/SignedQiu/MEFAttack.
Kernel-based Optimally Weighted Conformal Time-Series Prediction
Venue: arXiv cs.LG 2026
Year: 2026

In this work, we present a novel conformal prediction method for time-series, which we call Kernel-based Optimally Weighted Conformal Prediction Intervals (KOWCPI). Specifically, KOWCPI adapts the classic Reweighted Nadaraya-Watson (RNW) estimator for quantile regression on dependent data and learns optimal data-adaptive weights. Theoretically, we tackle the challenge of establishing a conditional coverage guarantee for non-exchangeable data under strong mixing conditions on the non-conformity scores. We demonstrate the superior performance of KOWCPI on real and synthetic time-series data against state-of-the-art methods, where KOWCPI achieves narrower confidence intervals without losing coverage.
Multimodal Adversarial Defense for Vision-Language Models by Leveraging One-To-Many Relationships
Venue: arXiv cs.CV 2026
Year: 2026

Pre-trained vision-language (VL) models are highly vulnerable to adversarial attacks. However, existing defense methods primarily focus on image classification, overlooking two key aspects of VL tasks: multimodal attacks, where both image and text can be perturbed, and the one-to-many relationship of images and texts, where a single image can correspond to multiple textual descriptions and vice versa (1:N and N:1). This work is the first to explore defense strategies against multimodal attacks in VL tasks, whereas prior VL defense methods focus on vision robustness. We propose multimodal adversarial training (MAT), which incorporates adversarial perturbations in both image and text modalities during training, significantly outperforming existing unimodal defenses. Furthermore, we discover that MAT is limited by deterministic one-to-one (1:1) image-text pairs in VL training data. To address this, we conduct a comprehensive study on leveraging one-to-many relationships to enhance robustness, investigating diverse augmentation techniques. Our analysis shows that, for a more effective defense, augmented image-text pairs should be well-aligned, diverse, yet avoid distribution shift -- conditions overlooked by prior research. This work pioneers defense strategies against multimodal attacks, providing insights for building robust VLMs from both optimization and data perspectives. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/CyberAgentAILab/multimodal-adversarial-training.
PrevMatch: Revisiting and Maximizing Temporal Knowledge in Semi-Supervised Semantic Segmentation
Venue: arXiv cs.CV 2026
Year: 2026

In semi-supervised semantic segmentation, the Mean Teacher- and co-training-based approaches are employed to mitigate confirmation bias and coupling problems. However, despite their high performance, these approaches frequently involve complex training pipelines and a substantial computational burden, limiting the scalability and compatibility of these methods. In this paper, we propose a PrevMatch framework that effectively mitigates the aforementioned limitations by maximizing the utilization of the temporal knowledge obtained during the training process. The PrevMatch framework relies on two core strategies: (1) we reconsider the use of temporal knowledge and thus directly utilize previous models obtained during training to generate additional pseudo-label guidance, referred to as previous guidance. (2) we design a highly randomized ensemble strategy to maximize the effectiveness of the previous guidance. PrevMatch, a simple yet effective plug-in method, can be seamlessly integrated into existing semi-supervised learning frameworks with minimal computational overhead. Experimental results on three benchmark semantic segmentation datasets show that incorporating PrevMatch into existing methods significantly improves their performance. Furthermore, our analysis indicates that PrevMatch facilitates stable optimization during training, resulting in improved generalization performance.
IGC-Net for conditional average potential outcome estimation over time
Venue: arXiv cs.LG 2026
Year: 2026

Estimating potential outcomes for treatments over time based on observational data is important for personalized decision-making in medicine. However, many existing methods for this task fail to properly adjust for time-varying confounding and thus yield biased estimates. There are only a few neural methods with proper adjustments, but these have inherent limitations (e.g., division by propensity scores that are often close to zero), which result in poor performance. As a remedy, we introduce the iterative G-computation network (IGC-Net). Our IGC-Net is a novel, neural end-to-end model which adjusts for time-varying confounding in order to estimate conditional average potential outcomes (CAPOs) over time. Specifically, our IGC-Net is the first neural model to perform fully regression-based iterative G-computation for CAPOs in the time-varying setting. We evaluate the effectiveness of our IGC-Net across various experiments. In sum, this work represents a significant step towards personalized decision-making from electronic health records.
On Reduction and Synthesis of Petri's Cycloids
Venue: arXiv cs.DC 2026
Year: 2026

Cycloids are particular Petri nets for modelling processes of actions and events, belonging to the fundaments of Petri's general systems theory. Defined by four parameters they provide an algebraic formalism to describe strongly synchronized sequential processes. To further investigate their structure, reduction systems of cycloids are defined in the style of rewriting systems and properties of irreducible cycloids are proved. In particular the synthesis of cycloid parameters from their Petri net structure is derived, leading to an efficient method for a decision procedure for cycloid isomorphism.
From Link Prediction to Forecasting: Addressing Challenges in Batch-based Temporal Graph Learning
Venue: arXiv cs.LG 2026
Year: 2026

Dynamic link prediction is an important problem considered in many recent works that propose approaches for learning temporal edge patterns. To assess their efficacy, models are evaluated on continuous-time and discrete-time temporal graph datasets, typically using a traditional batch-oriented evaluation setup. However, as we show in this work, a batch-oriented evaluation is often unsuitable and can cause several issues. Grouping edges into fixed-sized batches regardless of their occurrence time leads to information loss or leakage, depending on the temporal granularity of the data. Furthermore, fixed-size batches create time windows with different durations, resulting in an inconsistent dynamic link prediction task. In this work, we empirically show how traditional batch-based evaluation leads to skewed model performance and hinders the fair comparison of methods. We mitigate this problem by reformulating dynamic link prediction as a link forecasting task that better accounts for temporal information present in the data.
Experimental Evaluation of ROS-Causal in Real-World Human-Robot Spatial Interaction Scenarios
Venue: arXiv cs.RO 2026
Year: 2026

Deploying robots in human-shared environments requires a deep understanding of how nearby agents and objects interact. Employing causal inference to model cause-and-effect relationships facilitates the prediction of human behaviours and enables the anticipation of robot interventions. However, a significant challenge arises due to the absence of implementation of existing causal discovery methods within the ROS ecosystem, the standard de-facto framework in robotics, hindering effective utilisation on real robots. To bridge this gap, in our previous work we proposed ROS-Causal, a ROS-based framework designed for onboard data collection and causal discovery in human-robot spatial interactions. In this work, we present an experimental evaluation of ROS-Causal both in simulation and on a new dataset of human-robot spatial interactions in a lab scenario, to assess its performance and effectiveness. Our analysis demonstrates the efficacy of this approach, showcasing how causal models can be extracted directly onboard by robots during data collection. The online causal models generated from the simulation are consistent with those from lab experiments. These findings can help researchers to enhance the performance of robotic systems in shared environments, firstly by studying the causal relations between variables in simulation without real people, and then facilitating the actual robot deployment in real human environments. ROS-Causal: https://lcastri.github.io/roscausal
BayesAgent: Bayesian Agentic Reasoning Under Uncertainty via Verbalized Probabilistic Graphical Modeling
Venue: arXiv cs.LG 2026
Year: 2026

Human cognition excels at transcending sensory input and forming latent representations that structure our understanding of the world. While Large Language Model (LLM) agents demonstrate emergent reasoning and decision-making abilities, they lack a principled framework for capturing latent structures and modeling uncertainty. In this work, we explore for the first time how to bridge LLM agents with probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) to address agentic reasoning under uncertainty. To this end, we introduce Verbalized Probabilistic Graphical Modeling (vPGM), a Bayesian agentic framework that (i) guides LLM agents in following key principles of PGMs through natural language and (ii) refines the resulting posterior distributions via numerical Bayesian inference. Unlike many traditional probabilistic methods requiring substantial domain expertise, vPGM bypasses expert-driven model design, making it well-suited for scenarios with limited assumptions. We evaluated our model on several agentic reasoning tasks, both close-ended and open-ended. Our results indicate that the model effectively enhances confidence calibration and text generation quality.
Equilibrium Selection for Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning: A Unified Framework
Venue: arXiv cs.GT 2026
Year: 2026

While multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) has produced numerous algorithms that converge to Nash or related equilibria, such equilibria are often non-unique and can exhibit widely varying efficiency. This raises a fundamental question: how can one design learning dynamics that not only converge to equilibrium but also select equilibria with desirable performance, such as high social welfare? In contrast to the MARL literature, equilibrium selection has been extensively studied in normal-form games, where decentralized dynamics are known to converge to potential-maximizing or Pareto-optimal Nash equilibria (NEs). Motivated by these results, we study equilibrium selection in finite-horizon stochastic games. We propose a unified actor-critic framework in which a critic learns state-action value functions, and an actor applies a classical equilibrium-selection rule state-wise, treating learned values as stage-game payoffs. We show that, under standard stochastic stability assumptions, the stochastically stable policies of the resulting dynamics inherit the equilibrium selection properties of the underlying normal-form learning rule. As consequences, we obtain potential-maximizing policies in Markov potential games and Pareto-optimal (Markov perfect) equilibria in general-sum stochastic games, together with sample-based implementation of the framework.
Finite-Time Analysis of Simultaneous Double Q-learning
Venue: arXiv cs.LG 2026
Year: 2026

$Q$-learning is one of the most fundamental reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms. Despite its widespread success in various applications, it is prone to overestimation bias in the $Q$-learning update. To address this issue, double $Q$-learning employs two independent $Q$-estimators which are randomly selected and updated during the learning process. This paper proposes a modified double $Q$-learning, called simultaneous double $Q$-learning (SDQ), with its finite-time analysis. SDQ eliminates the need for random selection between the two $Q$-estimators, and this modification allows us to analyze double $Q$-learning through the lens of a novel switching system framework facilitating efficient finite-time analysis. Empirical studies demonstrate that SDQ converges faster than double $Q$-learning while retaining the ability to mitigate the maximization bias. Finally, we derive a finite-time expected error bound for SDQ.
CoSQA+: Pioneering the Multi-Choice Code Search Benchmark with Test-Driven Agents
Venue: arXiv cs.SE 2026
Year: 2026

Semantic code search, retrieving code that matches a given natural language query, is an important task to improve productivity in software engineering. Existing code search datasets face limitations: they rely on human annotators who assess code primarily through semantic understanding rather than functional verification, leading to potential inaccuracies and scalability issues. Additionally, current evaluation metrics often overlook the multi-choice nature of code search. This paper introduces CoSQA+, pairing high-quality queries from CoSQA with multiple suitable codes. We develop an automated pipeline featuring multiple model-based candidate selections and the novel test-driven agent annotation system. Among a single Large Language Model (LLM) annotator and Python expert annotators (without test-based verification), agents leverage test-based verification and achieve the highest accuracy of 93.9%. Through extensive experiments, CoSQA+ has demonstrated superior quality over CoSQA. Models trained on CoSQA+ exhibit improved performance. We publicly release both CoSQA+_all, which contains 412,080 agent-annotated pairs, and CoSQA+_verified, which contains 1,000 human-verified pairs, at https://github.com/DeepSoftwareAnalytics/CoSQA_Plus.