OpenRaiser/Intern-Atlas huggingface dataset:
Dish-TS: A General Paradigm for Alleviating Distribution Shift in Time Series Forecasting
Venue: Conference AAAI 2023
Year: 2023

The distribution shift in Time Series Forecasting (TSF), indicating series distribution changes over time, largely hinders the performance of TSF models. Existing works towards distribution shift in time series are mostly limited in the quantification of distribution and, more importantly, overlook the potential shift between lookback and horizon windows. To address above challenges, we systematically summarize the distribution shift in TSF into two categories. Regarding lookback windows as input-space and horizon windows as output-space, there exist (i) intra-space shift, that the distribution within the input-space keeps shifted over time, and (ii) inter-space shift, that the distribution is shifted between input-space and output-space. Then we introduce, Dish-TS, a general neural paradigm for alleviating distribution shift in TSF. Specifically, for better distribution estimation, we propose the coefficient net (CONET), which can be any neural architectures, to map input sequences into learnable distribution coefficients. To relieve intra-space and inter-space shift, we organize Dish-TS as a Dual-CONET framework to separately learn the distribution of input- and output-space, which naturally captures the distribution difference of two spaces. In addition, we introduce a more effective training strategy for intractable CONET learning. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments on several datasets coupled with different state-of-the-art forecasting models. Experimental results show Dish-TS consistently boosts them with a more than 20% average improvement. Code is available.
Causal Conditional Hidden Markov Model for Multimodal Traffic Prediction
Venue: Conference AAAI 2023
Year: 2023

Multimodal traffic flow can reflect the health of the transportation system, and its prediction is crucial to urban traffic management. Recent works overemphasize spatio-temporal correlations of traffic flow, ignoring the physical concepts that lead to the generation of observations and their causal relationship. Spatio-temporal correlations are considered unstable under the influence of different conditions, and spurious correlations may exist in observations. In this paper, we analyze the physical concepts affecting the generation of multimode traffic flow from the perspective of the observation generation principle and propose a Causal Conditional Hidden Markov Model (CCHMM) to predict multimodal traffic flow. In the latent variables inference stage, a posterior network disentangles the causal representations of the concepts of interest from conditional information and observations, and a causal propagation module mines their causal relationship. In the data generation stage, a prior network samples the causal latent variables from the prior distribution and feeds them into the generator to generate multimodal traffic flow. We use a mutually supervised training method for the prior and posterior to enhance the identifiability of the model. Experiments on real-world datasets show that CCHMM can effectively disentangle causal representations of concepts of interest and identify causality, and accurately predict multimodal traffic flow.
Non-IID Transfer Learning on Graphs
Venue: Conference AAAI 2023
Year: 2023

Transfer learning refers to the transfer of knowledge or information from a relevant source domain to a target domain. However, most existing transfer learning theories and algorithms focus on IID tasks, where the source/target samples are assumed to be independent and identically distributed. Very little effort is devoted to theoretically studying the knowledge transferability on non-IID tasks, e.g., cross-network mining. To bridge the gap, in this paper, we propose rigorous generalization bounds and algorithms for cross-network transfer learning from a source graph to a target graph. The crucial idea is to characterize the cross-network knowledge transferability from the perspective of the Weisfeiler-Lehman graph isomorphism test. To this end, we propose a novel Graph Subtree Discrepancy to measure the graph distribution shift between source and target graphs. Then the generalization error bounds on cross-network transfer learning, including both cross-network node classification and link prediction tasks, can be derived in terms of the source knowledge and the Graph Subtree Discrepancy across domains. This thereby motivates us to propose a generic graph adaptive network (GRADE) to minimize the distribution shift between source and target graphs for cross-network transfer learning. Experimental results verify the effectiveness and efficiency of our GRADE framework on both cross-network node classification and cross-domain recommendation tasks.
Correspondence-Free Domain Alignment for Unsupervised Cross-Domain Image Retrieval
Venue: Conference AAAI 2023
Year: 2023

Cross-domain image retrieval aims at retrieving images across different domains to excavate cross-domain classificatory or correspondence relationships. This paper studies a less-touched problem of cross-domain image retrieval, i.e., unsupervised cross-domain image retrieval, considering the following practical assumptions: (i) no correspondence relationship, and (ii) no category annotations. It is challenging to align and bridge distinct domains without cross-domain correspondence. To tackle the challenge, we present a novel Correspondence-free Domain Alignment (CoDA) method to effectively eliminate the cross-domain gap through In-domain Self-matching Supervision (ISS) and Cross-domain Classifier Alignment (CCA). To be specific, ISS is presented to encapsulate discriminative information into the latent common space by elaborating a novel self-matching supervision mechanism. To alleviate the cross-domain discrepancy, CCA is proposed to align distinct domain-specific classifiers. Thanks to the ISS and CCA, our method could encode the discrimination into the domain-invariant embedding space for unsupervised cross-domain image retrieval. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, extensive experiments are conducted on four benchmark datasets compared with six state-of-the-art methods.
Optimistic Whittle Index Policy: Online Learning for Restless Bandits
Venue: Conference AAAI 2023
Year: 2023

Restless multi-armed bandits (RMABs) extend multi-armed bandits to allow for stateful arms, where the state of each arm evolves restlessly with different transitions depending on whether that arm is pulled. Solving RMABs requires information on transition dynamics, which are often unknown upfront. To plan in RMAB settings with unknown transitions, we propose the first online learning algorithm based on the Whittle index policy, using an upper confidence bound (UCB) approach to learn transition dynamics. Specifically, we estimate confidence bounds of the transition probabilities and formulate a bilinear program to compute optimistic Whittle indices using these estimates. Our algorithm, UCWhittle, achieves sublinear $O(H \sqrt{T \log T})$ frequentist regret to solve RMABs with unknown transitions in $T$ episodes with a constant horizon $H$. Empirically, we demonstrate that UCWhittle leverages the structure of RMABs and the Whittle index policy solution to achieve better performance than existing online learning baselines across three domains, including one constructed from a real-world maternal and childcare dataset.
Delving into the Adversarial Robustness of Federated Learning
Venue: Conference AAAI 2023
Year: 2023

In Federated Learning (FL), models are as fragile as centrally trained models against adversarial examples. However, the adversarial robustness of federated learning remains largely unexplored. This paper casts light on the challenge of adversarial robustness of federated learning. To facilitate a better understanding of the adversarial vulnerability of the existing FL methods, we conduct comprehensive robustness evaluations on various attacks and adversarial training methods. Moreover, we reveal the negative impacts induced by directly adopting adversarial training in FL, which seriously hurts the test accuracy, especially in non-IID settings. In this work, we propose a novel algorithm called Decision Boundary based Federated Adversarial Training (DBFAT), which consists of two components (local re-weighting and global regularization) to improve both accuracy and robustness of FL systems. Extensive experiments on multiple datasets demonstrate that DBFAT consistently outperforms other baselines under both IID and non-IID settings.
Formally Verified SAT-Based AI Planning
Venue: Conference AAAI 2023
Year: 2023

We present an executable formally verified SAT encoding of classical AI planning. We use the theorem prover Isabelle/HOL to perform the verification. We experimentally test the verified encoding and show that it can be used for reasonably sized standard planning benchmarks. We also use it as a reference to test a state-of-the-art SAT-based planner, showing that it sometimes falsely claims that problems have no solutions of certain lengths.
Symbolic Metamodels for Interpreting Black-Boxes Using Primitive Functions
Venue: Conference AAAI 2023
Year: 2023

One approach for interpreting black-box machine learning models is to find a global approximation of the model using simple interpretable functions, which is called a metamodel (a model of the model). Approximating the black-box with a metamodel can be used to 1) estimate instance-wise feature importance; 2) understand the functional form of the model; 3) analyze feature interactions. In this work, we propose a new method for finding interpretable metamodels. Our approach utilizes Kolmogorov superposition theorem, which expresses multivariate functions as a composition of univariate functions (our primitive parameterized functions). This composition can be represented in the form of a tree. Inspired by symbolic regression, we use a modified form of genetic programming to search over different tree configurations. Gradient descent (GD) is used to optimize the parameters of a given configuration. Our method is a novel memetic algorithm that uses GD not only for training numerical constants but also for the training of building blocks. Using several experiments, we show that our method outperforms recent metamodeling approaches suggested for interpreting black-boxes.
Cosmic Microwave Background Recovery: A Graph-Based Bayesian Convolutional Network Approach
Venue: Conference AAAI 2023
Year: 2023

The cosmic microwave background (CMB) is a significant source of knowledge about the origin and evolution of our universe. However, observations of the CMB are contaminated by foreground emissions, obscuring the CMB signal and reducing its efficacy in constraining cosmological parameters. We employ deep learning as a data-driven approach to CMB cleaning from multi-frequency full-sky maps. In particular, we develop a graph-based Bayesian convolutional neural network based on the U-Net architecture that predicts cleaned CMB with pixel-wise uncertainty estimates. We demonstrate the potential of this technique on realistic simulated data based on the Planck mission. We show that our model accurately recovers the cleaned CMB sky map and resulting angular power spectrum while identifying regions of uncertainty. Finally, we discuss the current challenges and the path forward for deploying our model for CMB recovery on real observations.
Clustering What Matters: Optimal Approximation for Clustering with Outliers
Venue: Conference AAAI 2023
Year: 2023

Clustering with outliers is one of the most fundamental problems in Computer Science. Given a set $X$ of $n$ points and two integers $k$ and $m$, the clustering with outliers aims to exclude $m$ points from $X$ and partition the remaining points into $k$ clusters that minimizes a certain cost function. In this paper, we give a general approach for solving clustering with outliers, which results in a fixed-parameter tractable (FPT) algorithm in $k$ and $m$, that almost matches the approximation ratio for its outlier-free counterpart. As a corollary, we obtain FPT approximation algorithms with optimal approximation ratios for $k$-Median and $k$-Means with outliers in general metrics. We also exhibit more applications of our approach to other variants of the problem that impose additional constraints on the clustering, such as fairness or matroid constraints.
Learning Relational Causal Models with Cycles through Relational Acyclification
Venue: Conference AAAI 2023
Year: 2023

In real-world phenomena which involve mutual influence or causal effects between interconnected units, equilibrium states are typically represented with cycles in graphical models. An expressive class of graphical models, relational causal models, can represent and reason about complex dynamic systems exhibiting such cycles or feedback loops. Existing cyclic causal discovery algorithms for learning causal models from observational data assume that the data instances are independent and identically distributed which makes them unsuitable for relational causal models. At the same time, causal discovery algorithms for relational causal models assume acyclicity. In this work, we examine the necessary and sufficient conditions under which a constraint-based relational causal discovery algorithm is sound and complete for cyclic relational causal models. We introduce relational acyclification, an operation specifically designed for relational models that enables reasoning about the identifiability of cyclic relational causal models. We show that under the assumptions of relational acyclification and $σ$-faithfulness, the relational causal discovery algorithm RCD (Maier et al. 2013) is sound and complete for cyclic models. We present experimental results to support our claim.
Rethinking Interpretation: Input-Agnostic Saliency Mapping of Deep Visual Classifiers
Venue: Conference AAAI 2023
Year: 2023

Saliency methods provide post-hoc model interpretation by attributing input features to the model outputs. Current methods mainly achieve this using a single input sample, thereby failing to answer input-independent inquiries about the model. We also show that input-specific saliency mapping is intrinsically susceptible to misleading feature attribution. Current attempts to use 'general' input features for model interpretation assume access to a dataset containing those features, which biases the interpretation. Addressing the gap, we introduce a new perspective of input-agnostic saliency mapping that computationally estimates the high-level features attributed by the model to its outputs. These features are geometrically correlated, and are computed by accumulating model's gradient information with respect to an unrestricted data distribution. To compute these features, we nudge independent data points over the model loss surface towards the local minima associated by a human-understandable concept, e.g., class label for classifiers. With a systematic projection, scaling and refinement process, this information is transformed into an interpretable visualization without compromising its model-fidelity. The visualization serves as a stand-alone qualitative interpretation. With an extensive evaluation, we not only demonstrate successful visualizations for a variety of concepts for large-scale models, but also showcase an interesting utility of this new form of saliency mapping by identifying backdoor signatures in compromised classifiers.
Implicit Bilevel Optimization: Differentiating through Bilevel Optimization Programming
Venue: Conference AAAI 2023
Year: 2023

Bilevel Optimization Programming is used to model complex and conflicting interactions between agents, for example in Robust AI or Privacy-preserving AI. Integrating bilevel mathematical programming within deep learning is thus an essential objective for the Machine Learning community. Previously proposed approaches only consider single-level programming. In this paper, we extend existing single-level optimization programming approaches and thus propose Differentiating through Bilevel Optimization Programming (BiGrad) for end-to-end learning of models that use Bilevel Programming as a layer. BiGrad has wide applicability and can be used in modern machine learning frameworks. BiGrad is applicable to both continuous and combinatorial Bilevel optimization problems. We describe a class of gradient estimators for the combinatorial case which reduces the requirements in terms of computation complexity; for the case of the continuous variable, the gradient computation takes advantage of the push-back approach (i.e. vector-jacobian product) for an efficient implementation. Experiments show that the BiGrad successfully extends existing single-level approaches to Bilevel Programming.
AI Audit: A Card Game to Reflect on Everyday AI Systems
Venue: Conference AAAI 2023
Year: 2023

An essential element of K-12 AI literacy is educating learners about the ethical and societal implications of AI systems. Previous work in AI ethics literacy have developed curriculum and classroom activities that engage learners in reflecting on the ethical implications of AI systems and developing responsible AI. There is little work in using game-based learning methods in AI literacy. Games are known to be compelling media to teach children about complex STEM concepts. In this work, we developed a competitive card game for middle and high school students called "AI Audit" where they play as AI start-up founders building novel AI-powered technology. Players can challenge other players with potential harms of their technology or defend their own businesses by features that mitigate these harms. The game mechanics reward systems that are ethically developed or that take steps to mitigate potential harms. In this paper, we present the game design, teacher resources for classroom deployment and early playtesting results. We discuss our reflections about using games as teaching tools for AI literacy in K-12 classrooms.
Safe Interval Path Planning with Kinodynamic Constraints
Venue: Conference AAAI 2023
Year: 2023

Safe Interval Path Planning (SIPP) is a powerful algorithm for solving single-agent pathfinding problem when the agent is confined to a graph and certain vertices/edges of this graph are blocked at certain time intervals due to dynamic obstacles that populate the environment. Original SIPP algorithm relies on the assumption that the agent is able to stop instantaneously. However, this assumption often does not hold in practice, e.g. a mobile robot moving with a cruising speed is not able to stop immediately but rather requires gradual deceleration to a full stop that takes time. In other words, the robot is subject to kinodynamic constraints. Unfortunately, as we show in this work, in such a case original SIPP is incomplete. To this end, we introduce a novel variant of SIPP that is provably complete and optimal for planning with acceleration/deceleration. In the experimental evaluation we show that the key property of the original SIPP still holds for the modified version -- it performs much less expansions compared to A* and, as a result, is notably faster.
Generalized Category Discovery with Decoupled Prototypical Network
Venue: Conference AAAI 2023
Year: 2023

Generalized Category Discovery (GCD) aims to recognize both known and novel categories from a set of unlabeled data, based on another dataset labeled with only known categories. Without considering differences between known and novel categories, current methods learn about them in a coupled manner, which can hurt model's generalization and discriminative ability. Furthermore, the coupled training approach prevents these models transferring category-specific knowledge explicitly from labeled data to unlabeled data, which can lose high-level semantic information and impair model performance. To mitigate above limitations, we present a novel model called Decoupled Prototypical Network (DPN). By formulating a bipartite matching problem for category prototypes, DPN can not only decouple known and novel categories to achieve different training targets effectively, but also align known categories in labeled and unlabeled data to transfer category-specific knowledge explicitly and capture high-level semantics. Furthermore, DPN can learn more discriminative features for both known and novel categories through our proposed Semantic-aware Prototypical Learning (SPL). Besides capturing meaningful semantic information, SPL can also alleviate the noise of hard pseudo labels through semantic-weighted soft assignment. Extensive experiments show that DPN outperforms state-of-the-art models by a large margin on all evaluation metrics across multiple benchmark datasets. Code and data are available at https://github.com/Lackel/DPN.
Ripple: Concept-Based Interpretation for Raw Time Series Models in Education
Venue: Conference AAAI 2023
Year: 2023

Time series is the most prevalent form of input data for educational prediction tasks. The vast majority of research using time series data focuses on hand-crafted features, designed by experts for predictive performance and interpretability. However, extracting these features is labor-intensive for humans and computers. In this paper, we propose an approach that utilizes irregular multivariate time series modeling with graph neural networks to achieve comparable or better accuracy with raw time series clickstreams in comparison to hand-crafted features. Furthermore, we extend concept activation vectors for interpretability in raw time series models. We analyze these advances in the education domain, addressing the task of early student performance prediction for downstream targeted interventions and instructional support. Our experimental analysis on 23 MOOCs with millions of combined interactions over six behavioral dimensions show that models designed with our approach can (i) beat state-of-the-art educational time series baselines with no feature extraction and (ii) provide interpretable insights for personalized interventions. Source code: https://github.com/epfl-ml4ed/ripple/.
Principled Data-Driven Decision Support for Cyber-Forensic Investigations
Venue: Conference AAAI 2023
Year: 2023

In the wake of a cybersecurity incident, it is crucial to promptly discover how the threat actors breached security in order to assess the impact of the incident and to develop and deploy countermeasures that can protect against further attacks. To this end, defenders can launch a cyber-forensic investigation, which discovers the techniques that the threat actors used in the incident. A fundamental challenge in such an investigation is prioritizing the investigation of particular techniques since the investigation of each technique requires time and effort, but forensic analysts cannot know which ones were actually used before investigating them. To ensure prompt discovery, it is imperative to provide decision support that can help forensic analysts with this prioritization. A recent study demonstrated that data-driven decision support, based on a dataset of prior incidents, can provide state-of-the-art prioritization. However, this data-driven approach, called DISCLOSE, is based on a heuristic that utilizes only a subset of the available information and does not approximate optimal decisions. To improve upon this heuristic, we introduce a principled approach for data-driven decision support for cyber-forensic investigations. We formulate the decision-support problem using a Markov decision process, whose states represent the states of a forensic investigation. To solve the decision problem, we propose a Monte Carlo tree search based method, which relies on a k-NN regression over prior incidents to estimate state-transition probabilities. We evaluate our proposed approach on multiple versions of the MITRE ATT&CK dataset, which is a knowledge base of adversarial techniques and tactics based on real-world cyber incidents, and demonstrate that our approach outperforms DISCLOSE in terms of techniques discovered per effort spent.