OpenRaiser/Intern-Atlas huggingface dataset:
Robust Influence Maximization
Authors: Xinran He, David Kempe
Venue: Conference KDD 2016
Year: 2016

Uncertainty about models and data is ubiquitous in the computational social sciences, and it creates a need for robust social network algorithms, which can simultaneously provide guarantees across a spectrum of models and parameter settings. We begin an investigation into this broad domain by studying robust algorithms for the Influence Maximization problem, in which the goal is to identify a set of k nodes in a social network whose joint influence on the network is maximized. We define a Robust Influence Maximization framework wherein an algorithm is presented with a set of influence functions, typically derived from different influence models or different parameter settings for the same model. The different parameter settings could be derived from observed cascades on different topics, under different conditions, or at different times. The algorithm's goal is to identify a set of k nodes who are simultaneously influential for all influence functions, compared to the (function-specific) optimum solutions. We show strong approximation hardness results for this problem unless the algorithm gets to select at least a logarithmic factor more seeds than the optimum solution. However, when enough extra seeds may be selected, we show that techniques of Krause et al. can be used to approximate the optimum robust influence to within a factor of 1-1/e. We evaluate this bicriteria approximation algorithm against natural heuristics on several real-world data sets. Our experiments indicate that the worst-case hardness does not necessarily translate into bad performance on real-world data sets; all algorithms perform fairly well.
Compressing Graphs and Indexes with Recursive Graph Bisection
Venue: Conference KDD 2016
Year: 2016

Graph reordering is a powerful technique to increase the locality of the representations of graphs, which can be helpful in several applications. We study how the technique can be used to improve compression of graphs and inverted indexes. We extend the recent theoretical model of Chierichetti et al. (KDD 2009) for graph compression, and show how it can be employed for compression-friendly reordering of social networks and web graphs and for assigning document identifiers in inverted indexes. We design and implement a novel theoretically sound reordering algorithm that is based on recursive graph bisection. Our experiments show a significant improvement of the compression rate of graph and indexes over existing heuristics. The new method is relatively simple and allows efficient parallel and distributed implementations, which is demonstrated on graphs with billions of vertices and hundreds of billions of edges.
Efficient Frequent Directions Algorithm for Sparse Matrices
Venue: Conference KDD 2016
Year: 2016

This paper describes Sparse Frequent Directions, a variant of Frequent Directions for sketching sparse matrices. It resembles the original algorithm in many ways: both receive the rows of an input matrix $A^{n \times d}$ one by one in the streaming setting and compute a small sketch $B \in R^{\ell \times d}$. Both share the same strong (provably optimal) asymptotic guarantees with respect to the space-accuracy tradeoff in the streaming setting. However, unlike Frequent Directions which runs in $O(nd\ell)$ time regardless of the sparsity of the input matrix $A$, Sparse Frequent Directions runs in $\tilde{O} (nnz(A)\ell + n\ell^2)$ time. Our analysis loosens the dependence on computing the Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) as a black box within the Frequent Directions algorithm. Our bounds require recent results on the properties of fast approximate SVD computations. Finally, we empirically demonstrate that these asymptotic improvements are practical and significant on real and synthetic data.
Semi-Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive Model-Based Anomaly Detection in Aviation Systems
Venue: Conference KDD 2016
Year: 2016

In this work we consider the problem of anomaly detection in heterogeneous, multivariate, variable-length time series datasets. Our focus is on the aviation safety domain, where data objects are flights and time series are sensor readings and pilot switches. In this context the goal is to detect anomalous flight segments, due to mechanical, environmental, or human factors in order to identifying operationally significant events and provide insights into the flight operations and highlight otherwise unavailable potential safety risks and precursors to accidents. For this purpose, we propose a framework which represents each flight using a semi-Markov switching vector autoregressive (SMS-VAR) model. Detection of anomalies is then based on measuring dissimilarities between the model's prediction and data observation. The framework is scalable, due to the inherent parallel nature of most computations, and can be used to perform online anomaly detection. Extensive experimental results on simulated and real datasets illustrate that the framework can detect various types of anomalies along with the key parameters involved.
Modeling Precursors for Event Forecasting via Nested Multi-Instance Learning
Venue: Conference KDD 2016
Year: 2016

Forecasting events like civil unrest movements, disease outbreaks, financial market movements and government elections from open source indicators such as news feeds and social media streams is an important and challenging problem. From the perspective of human analysts and policy makers, forecasting algorithms need to provide supporting evidence and identify the causes related to the event of interest. We develop a novel multiple instance learning based approach that jointly tackles the problem of identifying evidence-based precursors and forecasts events into the future. Specifically, given a collection of streaming news articles from multiple sources we develop a nested multiple instance learning approach to forecast significant societal events across three countries in Latin America. Our algorithm is able to identify news articles considered as precursors for a protest. Our empirical evaluation shows the strengths of our proposed approaches in filtering candidate precursors, forecasting the occurrence of events with a lead time and predicting the characteristics of different events in comparison to several other formulations. We demonstrate through case studies the effectiveness of our proposed model in filtering the candidate precursors for inspection by a human analyst.
Label Noise Reduction in Entity Typing by Heterogeneous Partial-Label Embedding
Venue: Conference KDD 2016
Year: 2016

Current systems of fine-grained entity typing use distant supervision in conjunction with existing knowledge bases to assign categories (type labels) to entity mentions. However, the type labels so obtained from knowledge bases are often noisy (i.e., incorrect for the entity mention's local context). We define a new task, Label Noise Reduction in Entity Typing (LNR), to be the automatic identification of correct type labels (type-paths) for training examples, given the set of candidate type labels obtained by distant supervision with a given type hierarchy. The unknown type labels for individual entity mentions and the semantic similarity between entity types pose unique challenges for solving the LNR task. We propose a general framework, called PLE, to jointly embed entity mentions, text features and entity types into the same low-dimensional space where, in that space, objects whose types are semantically close have similar representations. Then we estimate the type-path for each training example in a top-down manner using the learned embeddings. We formulate a global objective for learning the embeddings from text corpora and knowledge bases, which adopts a novel margin-based loss that is robust to noisy labels and faithfully models type correlation derived from knowledge bases. Our experiments on three public typing datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of PLE, with an average of 25% improvement in accuracy compared to next best method.
Lexis: An Optimization Framework for Discovering the Hierarchical Structure of Sequential Data
Venue: Conference KDD 2016
Year: 2016

Data represented as strings abounds in biology, linguistics, document mining, web search and many other fields. Such data often have a hierarchical structure, either because they were artificially designed and composed in a hierarchical manner or because there is an underlying evolutionary process that creates repeatedly more complex strings from simpler substrings. We propose a framework, referred to as "Lexis", that produces an optimized hierarchical representation of a given set of "target" strings. The resulting hierarchy, "Lexis-DAG", shows how to construct each target through the concatenation of intermediate substrings, minimizing the total number of such concatenations or DAG edges. The Lexis optimization problem is related to the smallest grammar problem. After we prove its NP-Hardness for two cost formulations, we propose an efficient greedy algorithm for the construction of Lexis-DAGs. We also consider the problem of identifying the set of intermediate nodes (substrings) that collectively form the "core" of a Lexis-DAG, which is important in the analysis of Lexis-DAGs. We show that the Lexis framework can be applied in diverse applications such as optimized synthesis of DNA fragments in genomic libraries, hierarchical structure discovery in protein sequences, dictionary-based text compression, and feature extraction from a set of documents.
Convex Optimization for Linear Query Processing under Approximate Differential Privacy
Venue: Conference KDD 2016
Year: 2016

Differential privacy enables organizations to collect accurate aggregates over sensitive data with strong, rigorous guarantees on individuals' privacy. Previous work has found that under differential privacy, computing multiple correlated aggregates as a batch, using an appropriate \emph{strategy}, may yield higher accuracy than computing each of them independently. However, finding the best strategy that maximizes result accuracy is non-trivial, as it involves solving a complex constrained optimization program that appears to be non-linear and non-convex. Hence, in the past much effort has been devoted in solving this non-convex optimization program. Existing approaches include various sophisticated heuristics and expensive numerical solutions. None of them, however, guarantees to find the optimal solution of this optimization problem. This paper points out that under ($ε$, $δ$)-differential privacy, the optimal solution of the above constrained optimization problem in search of a suitable strategy can be found, rather surprisingly, by solving a simple and elegant convex optimization program. Then, we propose an efficient algorithm based on Newton's method, which we prove to always converge to the optimal solution with linear global convergence rate and quadratic local convergence rate. Empirical evaluations demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed solution.
Effective Evaluation Using Logged Bandit Feedback from Multiple Loggers
Venue: Conference KDD 2017
Year: 2017

Accurately evaluating new policies (e.g. ad-placement models, ranking functions, recommendation functions) is one of the key prerequisites for improving interactive systems. While the conventional approach to evaluation relies on online A/B tests, recent work has shown that counterfactual estimators can provide an inexpensive and fast alternative, since they can be applied offline using log data that was collected from a different policy fielded in the past. In this paper, we address the question of how to estimate the performance of a new target policy when we have log data from multiple historic policies. This question is of great relevance in practice, since policies get updated frequently in most online systems. We show that naively combining data from multiple logging policies can be highly suboptimal. In particular, we find that the standard Inverse Propensity Score (IPS) estimator suffers especially when logging and target policies diverge -- to a point where throwing away data improves the variance of the estimator. We therefore propose two alternative estimators which we characterize theoretically and compare experimentally. We find that the new estimators can provide substantially improved estimation accuracy.
Using Convolutional Networks and Satellite Imagery to Identify Patterns in Urban Environments at a Large Scale
Venue: Conference KDD 2017
Year: 2017

Urban planning applications (energy audits, investment, etc.) require an understanding of built infrastructure and its environment, i.e., both low-level, physical features (amount of vegetation, building area and geometry etc.), as well as higher-level concepts such as land use classes (which encode expert understanding of socio-economic end uses). This kind of data is expensive and labor-intensive to obtain, which limits its availability (particularly in developing countries). We analyze patterns in land use in urban neighborhoods using large-scale satellite imagery data (which is available worldwide from third-party providers) and state-of-the-art computer vision techniques based on deep convolutional neural networks. For supervision, given the limited availability of standard benchmarks for remote-sensing data, we obtain ground truth land use class labels carefully sampled from open-source surveys, in particular the Urban Atlas land classification dataset of $20$ land use classes across $~300$ European cities. We use this data to train and compare deep architectures which have recently shown good performance on standard computer vision tasks (image classification and segmentation), including on geospatial data. Furthermore, we show that the deep representations extracted from satellite imagery of urban environments can be used to compare neighborhoods across several cities. We make our dataset available for other machine learning researchers to use for remote-sensing applications.
Luck is Hard to Beat: The Difficulty of Sports Prediction
Venue: Conference KDD 2017
Year: 2017

Predicting the outcome of sports events is a hard task. We quantify this difficulty with a coefficient that measures the distance between the observed final results of sports leagues and idealized perfectly balanced competitions in terms of skill. This indicates the relative presence of luck and skill. We collected and analyzed all games from 198 sports leagues comprising 1503 seasons from 84 countries of 4 different sports: basketball, soccer, volleyball and handball. We measured the competitiveness by countries and sports. We also identify in each season which teams, if removed from its league, result in a completely random tournament. Surprisingly, not many of them are needed. As another contribution of this paper, we propose a probabilistic graphical model to learn about the teams' skills and to decompose the relative weights of luck and skill in each game. We break down the skill component into factors associated with the teams' characteristics. The model also allows to estimate as 0.36 the probability that an underdog team wins in the NBA league, with a home advantage adding 0.09 to this probability. As shown in the first part of the paper, luck is substantially present even in the most competitive championships, which partially explains why sophisticated and complex feature-based models hardly beat simple models in the task of forecasting sports' outcomes.
Bolt: Accelerated Data Mining with Fast Vector Compression
Venue: Conference KDD 2017
Year: 2017

Vectors of data are at the heart of machine learning and data mining. Recently, vector quantization methods have shown great promise in reducing both the time and space costs of operating on vectors. We introduce a vector quantization algorithm that can compress vectors over 12x faster than existing techniques while also accelerating approximate vector operations such as distance and dot product computations by up to 10x. Because it can encode over 2GB of vectors per second, it makes vector quantization cheap enough to employ in many more circumstances. For example, using our technique to compute approximate dot products in a nested loop can multiply matrices faster than a state-of-the-art BLAS implementation, even when our algorithm must first compress the matrices. In addition to showing the above speedups, we demonstrate that our approach can accelerate nearest neighbor search and maximum inner product search by over 100x compared to floating point operations and up to 10x compared to other vector quantization methods. Our approximate Euclidean distance and dot product computations are not only faster than those of related algorithms with slower encodings, but also faster than Hamming distance computations, which have direct hardware support on the tested platforms. We also assess the errors of our algorithm's approximate distances and dot products, and find that it is competitive with existing, slower vector quantization algorithms.
Customer Lifetime Value Prediction Using Embeddings
Venue: Conference KDD 2017
Year: 2017

We describe the Customer LifeTime Value (CLTV) prediction system deployed at ASOS.com, a global online fashion retailer. CLTV prediction is an important problem in e-commerce where an accurate estimate of future value allows retailers to effectively allocate marketing spend, identify and nurture high value customers and mitigate exposure to losses. The system at ASOS provides daily estimates of the future value of every customer and is one of the cornerstones of the personalised shopping experience. The state of the art in this domain uses large numbers of handcrafted features and ensemble regressors to forecast value, predict churn and evaluate customer loyalty. Recently, domains including language, vision and speech have shown dramatic advances by replacing handcrafted features with features that are learned automatically from data. We detail the system deployed at ASOS and show that learning feature representations is a promising extension to the state of the art in CLTV modelling. We propose a novel way to generate embeddings of customers, which addresses the issue of the ever changing product catalogue and obtain a significant improvement over an exhaustive set of handcrafted features.
On Sampling Strategies for Neural Network-based Collaborative Filtering
Venue: Conference KDD 2017
Year: 2017

Recent advances in neural networks have inspired people to design hybrid recommendation algorithms that can incorporate both (1) user-item interaction information and (2) content information including image, audio, and text. Despite their promising results, neural network-based recommendation algorithms pose extensive computational costs, making it challenging to scale and improve upon. In this paper, we propose a general neural network-based recommendation framework, which subsumes several existing state-of-the-art recommendation algorithms, and address the efficiency issue by investigating sampling strategies in the stochastic gradient descent training for the framework. We tackle this issue by first establishing a connection between the loss functions and the user-item interaction bipartite graph, where the loss function terms are defined on links while major computation burdens are located at nodes. We call this type of loss functions "graph-based" loss functions, for which varied mini-batch sampling strategies can have different computational costs. Based on the insight, three novel sampling strategies are proposed, which can significantly improve the training efficiency of the proposed framework (up to $\times 30$ times speedup in our experiments), as well as improving the recommendation performance. Theoretical analysis is also provided for both the computational cost and the convergence. We believe the study of sampling strategies have further implications on general graph-based loss functions, and would also enable more research under the neural network-based recommendation framework.
A Data Science Approach to Understanding Residential Water Contamination in Flint
Venue: Conference KDD 2017
Year: 2017

When the residents of Flint learned that lead had contaminated their water system, the local government made water-testing kits available to them free of charge. The city government published the results of these tests, creating a valuable dataset that is key to understanding the causes and extent of the lead contamination event in Flint. This is the nation's largest dataset on lead in a municipal water system. In this paper, we predict the lead contamination for each household's water supply, and we study several related aspects of Flint's water troubles, many of which generalize well beyond this one city. For example, we show that elevated lead risks can be (weakly) predicted from observable home attributes. Then we explore the factors associated with elevated lead. These risk assessments were developed in part via a crowd sourced prediction challenge at the University of Michigan. To inform Flint residents of these assessments, they have been incorporated into a web and mobile application funded by \texttt{Google.org}. We also explore questions of self-selection in the residential testing program, examining which factors are linked to when and how frequently residents voluntarily sample their water.
Contextual Motifs: Increasing the Utility of Motifs using Contextual Data
Venue: Conference KDD 2017
Year: 2017

Motifs are a powerful tool for analyzing physiological waveform data. Standard motif methods, however, ignore important contextual information (e.g., what the patient was doing at the time the data were collected). We hypothesize that these additional contextual data could increase the utility of motifs. Thus, we propose an extension to motifs, contextual motifs, that incorporates context. Recognizing that, oftentimes, context may be unobserved or unavailable, we focus on methods to jointly infer motifs and context. Applied to both simulated and real physiological data, our proposed approach improves upon existing motif methods in terms of the discriminative utility of the discovered motifs. In particular, we discovered contextual motifs in continuous glucose monitor (CGM) data collected from patients with type 1 diabetes. Compared to their contextless counterparts, these contextual motifs led to better predictions of hypo- and hyperglycemic events. Our results suggest that even when inferred, context is useful in both a long- and short-term prediction horizon when processing and interpreting physiological waveform data.
Efficient Correlated Topic Modeling with Topic Embedding
Venue: Conference KDD 2017
Year: 2017

Correlated topic modeling has been limited to small model and problem sizes due to their high computational cost and poor scaling. In this paper, we propose a new model which learns compact topic embeddings and captures topic correlations through the closeness between the topic vectors. Our method enables efficient inference in the low-dimensional embedding space, reducing previous cubic or quadratic time complexity to linear w.r.t the topic size. We further speedup variational inference with a fast sampler to exploit sparsity of topic occurrence. Extensive experiments show that our approach is capable of handling model and data scales which are several orders of magnitude larger than existing correlation results, without sacrificing modeling quality by providing competitive or superior performance in document classification and retrieval.