OpenRaiser/Intern-Atlas huggingface dataset:
RiverMamba: A State Space Model for Global River Discharge and Flood Forecasting
Venue: Conference NeurIPS 2025
Year: 2025

Recent deep learning approaches for river discharge forecasting have improved the accuracy and efficiency in flood forecasting, enabling more reliable early warning systems for risk management. Nevertheless, existing deep learning approaches in hydrology remain largely confined to local-scale applications and do not leverage the inherent spatial connections of bodies of water. Thus, there is a strong need for new deep learning methodologies that are capable of modeling spatio-temporal relations to improve river discharge and flood forecasting for scientific and operational applications. To address this, we present RiverMamba, a novel deep learning model that is pretrained with long-term reanalysis data and that can forecast global river discharge and floods on a $0.05^\circ$ grid up to $7$ days lead time, which is of high relevance in early warning. To achieve this, RiverMamba leverages efficient Mamba blocks that enable the model to capture spatio-temporal relations in very large river networks and enhance its forecast capability for longer lead times. The forecast blocks integrate ECMWF HRES meteorological forecasts, while accounting for their inaccuracies through spatio-temporal modeling. Our analysis demonstrates that RiverMamba provides reliable predictions of river discharge across various flood return periods, including extreme floods, and lead times, surpassing both AI- and physics-based models. The source code and datasets are publicly available at the project page https://hakamshams.github.io/RiverMamba.
Beyond Last-Click: An Optimal Mechanism for Ad Attribution
Venue: Conference NeurIPS 2025
Year: 2025

Accurate attribution for multiple platforms is critical for evaluating performance-based advertising. However, existing attribution methods rely heavily on the heuristic methods, e.g., Last-Click Mechanism (LCM) which always allocates the attribution to the platform with the latest report, lacking theoretical guarantees for attribution accuracy. In this work, we propose a novel theoretical model for the advertising attribution problem, in which we aim to design the optimal dominant strategy incentive compatible (DSIC) mechanisms and evaluate their performance. We first show that LCM is not DSIC and performs poorly in terms of accuracy and fairness. To address this limitation, we introduce the Peer-Validated Mechanism (PVM), a DSIC mechanism in which a platform's attribution depends solely on the reports of other platforms. We then examine the accuracy of PVM across both homogeneous and heterogeneous settings, and provide provable accuracy bounds for each case. Notably, we show that PVM is the optimal DSIC mechanism in the homogeneous setting. Finally, numerical experiments are conducted to show that PVM consistently outperforms LCM in terms of attribution accuracy and fairness.
rStar-Coder: Scaling Competitive Code Reasoning  with a  Large-Scale Verified  Dataset
Venue: Conference NeurIPS 2025
Year: 2025

Advancing code reasoning in large language models (LLMs) is fundamentally limited by the scarcity of high-difficulty datasets, especially those with verifiable input-output test cases necessary for rigorous solution validation at scale. We introduce rStar-Coder, which significantly improves LLM code reasoning capabilities by constructing a large-scale, verified dataset of 418K competition-level code problems, 580K long-reasoning solutions along with rich test cases of varying difficulty. This is achieved through three core contributions: (1) we curate competitive programming code problems and oracle solutions to synthesize new, solvable problems; (2) we introduce a reliable input-output test case synthesis pipeline that decouples the generation into a three-step input generation method and a mutual verification mechanism for effective output labeling; (3) we augment problems with high-quality, test-case-verified long-reasoning solutions. Extensive experiments on Qwen models (1.5B-14B) across various code reasoning benchmarks demonstrate the superiority of rStar-Coder dataset, achieving leading performance comparable to frontier reasoning LLMs with much smaller model sizes. On LiveCodeBench, rStar-Coder improves Qwen2.5-7B from 17.4% to an impressive 57.3%, and Qwen2.5-14B from 23.3% to 62.5%, surpassing o3-mini (low) by3.1%. On the more challenging USA Computing Olympiad, our 7B model achieves an average pass@1 accuracy of 16.15%, outperforming the frontier-level QWQ-32B. Code and the dataset will be released at https://github.com/microsoft/rStar.
From Average-Iterate to Last-Iterate Convergence in Games: A Reduction and Its Applications
Venue: Conference NeurIPS 2025
Year: 2025

The convergence of online learning algorithms in games under self-play is a fundamental question in game theory and machine learning. Among various notions of convergence, last-iterate convergence is particularly desirable, as it reflects the actual decisions made by the learners and captures the day-to-day behavior of the learning dynamics. While many algorithms are known to converge in the average-iterate, achieving last-iterate convergence typically requires considerably more effort in both the design and the analysis of the algorithm. Somewhat surprisingly, we show in this paper that for a large family of games, there exists a simple black-box reduction that transforms the average iterates of an uncoupled learning dynamics into the last iterates of a new uncoupled learning dynamics, thus also providing a reduction from last-iterate convergence to average-iterate convergence. Our reduction applies to games where each player's utility is linear in both their own strategy and the joint strategy of all opponents. This family includes two-player bimatrix games and generalizations such as multi-player polymatrix games. By applying our reduction to the Optimistic Multiplicative Weights Update algorithm, we obtain new state-of-the-art last-iterate convergence rates for uncoupled learning dynamics in multi-player zero-sum polymatrix games: (1) an $O(\frac{\log d}{T})$ last-iterate convergence rate under gradient feedback, representing an exponential improvement in the dependence on the dimension $d$ (i.e., the maximum number of actions available to either player); and (2) an $\widetilde{O}(d^{\frac{1}{5}} T^{-\frac{1}{5}})$ last-iterate convergence rate under bandit feedback, improving upon the previous best rates of $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{d} T^{-\frac{1}{8}})$ and $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{d} T^{-\frac{1}{6}})$.
Contextual Thompson Sampling via Generation of Missing Data
Venue: Conference NeurIPS 2025
Year: 2025

We introduce a framework for Thompson sampling (TS) contextual bandit algorithms, in which the algorithm's ability to quantify uncertainty and make decisions depends on the quality of a generative model that is learned offline. Instead of viewing uncertainty in the environment as arising from unobservable latent parameters, our algorithm treats uncertainty as stemming from missing, but potentially observable outcomes (including both future and counterfactual outcomes). If these outcomes were all observed, one could simply make decisions using an "oracle" policy fit on the complete dataset. Inspired by this conceptualization, at each decision-time, our algorithm uses a generative model to probabilistically impute missing outcomes, fits a policy using the imputed complete dataset, and uses that policy to select the next action. We formally show that this algorithm is a generative formulation of TS and establish a state-of-the-art regret bound. Notably, our regret bound depends on the generative model only through the quality of its offline prediction loss, and applies to any method of fitting the "oracle" policy.
Raw2Drive: Reinforcement Learning with Aligned World Models for End-to-End Autonomous Driving (in CARLA v2)
Venue: Conference NeurIPS 2025
Year: 2025

Reinforcement Learning (RL) can mitigate the causal confusion and distribution shift inherent to imitation learning (IL). However, applying RL to end-to-end autonomous driving (E2E-AD) remains an open problem for its training difficulty, and IL is still the mainstream paradigm in both academia and industry. Recently Model-based Reinforcement Learning (MBRL) have demonstrated promising results in neural planning; however, these methods typically require privileged information as input rather than raw sensor data. We fill this gap by designing Raw2Drive, a dual-stream MBRL approach. Initially, we efficiently train an auxiliary privileged world model paired with a neural planner that uses privileged information as input. Subsequently, we introduce a raw sensor world model trained via our proposed Guidance Mechanism, which ensures consistency between the raw sensor world model and the privileged world model during rollouts. Finally, the raw sensor world model combines the prior knowledge embedded in the heads of the privileged world model to effectively guide the training of the raw sensor policy. Raw2Drive is so far the only RL based end-to-end method on CARLA Leaderboard 2.0, and Bench2Drive and it achieves state-of-the-art performance.
Causal Climate Emulation with Bayesian Filtering
Venue: Conference NeurIPS 2025
Year: 2025

Traditional models of climate change use complex systems of coupled equations to simulate physical processes across the Earth system. These simulations are highly computationally expensive, limiting our predictions of climate change and analyses of its causes and effects. Machine learning has the potential to quickly emulate data from climate models, but current approaches are not able to incorporate physically-based causal relationships. Here, we develop an interpretable climate model emulator based on causal representation learning. We derive a novel approach including a Bayesian filter for stable long-term autoregressive emulation. We demonstrate that our emulator learns accurate climate dynamics, and we show the importance of each one of its components on a realistic synthetic dataset and data from two widely deployed climate models.
AI Debate Aids Assessment of Controversial Claims
Venue: Conference NeurIPS 2025
Year: 2025

As AI grows more powerful, it will increasingly shape how we understand the world. But with this influence comes the risk of amplifying misinformation and deepening social divides-especially on consequential topics where factual accuracy directly impacts well-being. Scalable Oversight aims to ensure AI systems remain truthful even when their capabilities exceed those of their evaluators. Yet when humans serve as evaluators, their own beliefs and biases can impair judgment. We study whether AI debate can guide biased judges toward the truth by having two AI systems debate opposing sides of controversial factuality claims on COVID-19 and climate change where people hold strong prior beliefs. We conduct two studies. Study I recruits human judges with either mainstream or skeptical beliefs who evaluate claims through two protocols: debate (interaction with two AI advisors arguing opposing sides) or consultancy (interaction with a single AI advisor). Study II uses AI judges with and without human-like personas to evaluate the same protocols. In Study I, debate consistently improves human judgment accuracy and confidence calibration, outperforming consultancy by 4-10% across COVID-19 and climate change claims. The improvement is most significant for judges with mainstream beliefs (up to +15.2% accuracy on COVID-19 claims), though debate also helps skeptical judges who initially misjudge claims move toward accurate views (+4.7% accuracy). In Study II, AI judges with human-like personas achieve even higher accuracy (78.5%) than human judges (70.1%) and default AI judges without personas (69.8%), suggesting their potential for supervising frontier AI models. These findings highlight AI debate as a promising path toward scalable, bias-resilient oversight in contested domains.
V-CECE: Visual Counterfactual Explanations via Conceptual Edits
Venue: Conference NeurIPS 2025
Year: 2025

Recent black-box counterfactual generation frameworks fail to take into account the semantic content of the proposed edits, while relying heavily on training to guide the generation process. We propose a novel, plug-and-play black-box counterfactual generation framework, which suggests step-by-step edits based on theoretical guarantees of optimal edits to produce human-level counterfactual explanations with zero training. Our framework utilizes a pre-trained image editing diffusion model, and operates without access to the internals of the classifier, leading to an explainable counterfactual generation process. Throughout our experimentation, we showcase the explanatory gap between human reasoning and neural model behavior by utilizing both Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Vision Transformer (ViT) and Large Vision Language Model (LVLM) classifiers, substantiated through a comprehensive human evaluation.
Noise Consistency Training: A Native Approach for One-step Generator in Learning Additional Controls
Venue: Conference NeurIPS 2025
Year: 2025

The pursuit of efficient and controllable high-quality content generation remains a central challenge in artificial intelligence-generated content (AIGC). While one-step generators, enabled by diffusion distillation techniques, offer excellent generation quality and computational efficiency, adapting them to new control conditions--such as structural constraints, semantic guidelines, or external inputs--poses a significant challenge. Conventional approaches often necessitate computationally expensive modifications to the base model and subsequent diffusion distillation. This paper introduces Noise Consistency Training (NCT), a novel and lightweight approach to directly integrate new control signals into pre-trained one-step generators without requiring access to original training images or retraining the base diffusion model. NCT operates by introducing an adapter module and employs a noise consistency loss in the noise space of the generator. This loss aligns the adapted model's generation behavior across noises that are conditionally dependent to varying degrees, implicitly guiding it to adhere to the new control. Theoretically, this training objective can be understood as minimizing the distributional distance between the adapted generator and the conditional distribution induced by the new conditions. NCT is modular, data-efficient, and easily deployable, relying only on the pre-trained one-step generator and a control signal model. Extensive experiments demonstrate that NCT achieves state-of-the-art controllable generation in a single forward pass, surpassing existing multi-step and distillation-based methods in both generation quality and computational efficiency. Code is available at https://github.com/Luo-Yihong/NCT
Distribution Learning Meets Graph Structure Sampling
Venue: Conference NeurIPS 2025
Year: 2025

This work establishes a novel link between the problem of PAC-learning high-dimensional graphical models and the task of (efficient) counting and sampling of graph structures, using an online learning framework. We observe that if we apply the exponentially weighted average (EWA) or randomized weighted majority (RWM) forecasters on a sequence of samples from a distribution P using the log loss function, the average regret incurred by the forecaster's predictions can be used to bound the expected KL divergence between P and the predictions. Known regret bounds for EWA and RWM then yield new sample complexity bounds for learning Bayes nets. Moreover, these algorithms can be made computationally efficient for several interesting classes of Bayes nets. Specifically, we give a new sample-optimal and polynomial time learning algorithm with respect to trees of unknown structure and the first polynomial sample and time algorithm for learning with respect to Bayes nets over a given chordal skeleton.
Advancing Compositional Awareness in CLIP with Efficient Fine-Tuning
Venue: Conference NeurIPS 2025
Year: 2025

Vision-language models like CLIP have demonstrated remarkable zero-shot capabilities in classification and retrieval. However, these models often struggle with compositional reasoning - the ability to understand the relationships between concepts. A recent benchmark, SugarCrepe++, reveals that previous works on improving compositionality have mainly improved lexical sensitivity but neglected semantic understanding. In addition, downstream retrieval performance often deteriorates, although one would expect that improving compositionality should enhance retrieval. In this work, we introduce CLIC (Compositionally-aware Learning in CLIP), a fine-tuning method based on a novel training technique combining multiple images and their associated captions. CLIC improves compositionality across architectures as well as differently pre-trained CLIP models, both in terms of lexical and semantic understanding, and achieves consistent gains in retrieval performance. This even applies to the recent CLIPS, which achieves SOTA retrieval performance. Nevertheless, the short fine-tuning with CLIC leads to an improvement in retrieval and to the best compositional CLIP model on SugarCrepe++. All our models and code are available at https://clic-compositional-clip.github.io
Implicit Reward as the Bridge: A Unified View of SFT and DPO Connections
Venue: Conference NeurIPS 2025
Year: 2025

Post-training processes are essential phases in grounding pre-trained language models to real-world tasks, with learning from demonstrations or preference signals playing a crucial role in this adaptation. We present a unified theoretical framework bridging Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) and preference learning in Large Language Model (LLM) post-training. Through rigorous mathematical derivation, we demonstrate that both SFT and preference learning methods like Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) operate within the same optimal policy-reward subspace, with SFT representing a special case of implicit reward learning. Our analysis reveals a critical limitation in conventional SFT: the KL divergence term in distribution matching becomes constant with respect to the policy during optimization, failing to constrain model updates. To address this, we propose a simple yet effective learning rate reduction approach that yields significant performance improvements (up to \textbf{25\%} relative gain and \textbf{6\%} absolute win rate increase in instruction following tasks. Additionally, we derive alternative SFT objectives from various f-divergence functions that preserve the KL term during optimization, further enhancing post-DPO model performance. Finally, we extend the theoretical relationship between LLM logits and Q-functions from preference learning to the SFT context, providing mathematical derivations and experimental validation.
APML: Adaptive Probabilistic Matching Loss for Robust 3D Point Cloud Reconstruction
Venue: Conference NeurIPS 2025
Year: 2025

Training deep learning models for point cloud prediction tasks such as shape completion and generation depends critically on loss functions that measure discrepancies between predicted and ground-truth point sets. Commonly used functions such as Chamfer Distance (CD), HyperCD, and InfoCD rely on nearest-neighbor assignments, which often induce many-to-one correspondences, leading to point congestion in dense regions and poor coverage in sparse regions. These losses also involve non-differentiable operations due to index selection, which may affect gradient-based optimization. Earth Mover Distance (EMD) enforces one-to-one correspondences and captures structural similarity more effectively, but its cubic computational complexity limits its practical use. We propose the Adaptive Probabilistic Matching Loss (APML), a fully differentiable approximation of one-to-one matching that leverages Sinkhorn iterations on a temperature-scaled similarity matrix derived from pairwise distances. We analytically compute the temperature to guarantee a minimum assignment probability, eliminating manual tuning. APML achieves near-quadratic runtime, comparable to Chamfer-based losses, and avoids non-differentiable operations. When integrated into state-of-the-art architectures (PoinTr, PCN, FoldingNet) on ShapeNet benchmarks and on a spatiotemporal Transformer (CSI2PC) that generates 3D human point clouds from WiFi CSI measurements, APM loss yields faster convergence, superior spatial distribution, especially in low-density regions, and improved or on-par quantitative performance without additional hyperparameter search. The code is available at: https://github.com/apm-loss/apml.
Scaling and context steer LLMs along the same computational path as the human brain
Venue: Conference NeurIPS 2025
Year: 2025

Recent studies suggest that the representations learned by large language models (LLMs) are partially aligned to those of the human brain. However, whether and why this alignment score arises from a similar sequence of computations remains elusive. In this study, we explore this question by examining temporally-resolved brain signals of participants listening to 10 hours of an audiobook. We study these neural dynamics jointly with a benchmark encompassing 22 LLMs varying in size and architecture type. Our analyses confirm that LLMs and the brain generate representations in a similar order: specifically, activations in the initial layers of LLMs tend to best align with early brain responses, while the deeper layers of LLMs tend to best align with later brain responses. This brain-LLM alignment is consistent across transformers and recurrent architectures. However, its emergence depends on both model size and context length. Overall, this study sheds light on the sequential nature of computations and the factors underlying the partial convergence between biological and artificial neural networks.
Double-Checker: Enhancing Reasoning of Slow-Thinking LLMs via Self-Critical Fine-Tuning
Venue: Conference NeurIPS 2025
Year: 2025

While slow-thinking large language models (LLMs) exhibit reflection-like reasoning, commonly referred to as the "aha moment:, their ability to generate informative critiques and refine prior solutions remains limited. In this paper, we introduce Double-Checker, a principled framework designed to enhance the reasoning capabilities of slow-thinking LLMs by fostering explicit self-critique and iterative refinement of their previous solutions. By fine-tuning on our curated 1,730 self-critical instances, Double-Checker empowers long-CoT LLMs to iteratively critique and refine their outputs during inference until they evaluate their solutions as correct under self-generated critiques. We validate the efficacy of Double-Checker across a comprehensive suite of reasoning benchmarks, demonstrating that iterative self-critique significantly enhances the reasoning capabilities of long-CoT LLMs. Notably, our Double-Checker increases the pass@1 performance on challenging AIME benchmarks from 4.4% to 18.2% compared to the original long-CoT LLMs. These results highlight a promising direction for developing more trustworthy and effective LLMs capable of structured self-critique. Our codes and data are available at https://github.com/XinXU-USTC/DoubleChecker