OpenRaiser/Intern-Atlas huggingface dataset:
Improving *day-ahead* Solar Irradiance Time Series Forecasting by Leveraging Spatio-Temporal Context
Venue: Conference NeurIPS 2023
Year: 2023

Solar power harbors immense potential in mitigating climate change by substantially reducing CO$_{2}$ emissions. Nonetheless, the inherent variability of solar irradiance poses a significant challenge for seamlessly integrating solar power into the electrical grid. While the majority of prior research has centered on employing purely time series-based methodologies for solar forecasting, only a limited number of studies have taken into account factors such as cloud cover or the surrounding physical context. In this paper, we put forth a deep learning architecture designed to harness spatio-temporal context using satellite data, to attain highly accurate \textit{day-ahead} time-series forecasting for any given station, with a particular emphasis on forecasting Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI). We also suggest a methodology to extract a distribution for each time step prediction, which can serve as a very valuable measure of uncertainty attached to the forecast. When evaluating models, we propose a testing scheme in which we separate particularly difficult examples from easy ones, in order to capture the model performances in crucial situations, which in the case of this study are the days suffering from varying cloudy conditions. Furthermore, we present a new multi-modal dataset gathering satellite imagery over a large zone and time series for solar irradiance and other related physical variables from multiple geographically diverse solar stations. Our approach exhibits robust performance in solar irradiance forecasting, including zero-shot generalization tests at unobserved solar stations, and holds great promise in promoting the effective integration of solar power into the grid.
Uncovering and Quantifying Social Biases in Code Generation
Venue: Conference NeurIPS 2023
Year: 2023

With the popularity of automatic code generation tools, such as Copilot, the study of the potential hazards of these tools is gaining importance. In this work, we explore the social bias problem in pre-trained code generation models. We propose a new paradigm to construct code prompts and successfully uncover social biases in code generation models. To quantify the severity of social biases in generated code, we develop a dataset along with three metrics to evaluate the overall social bias and fine-grained unfairness across different demographics. Experimental results on three pre-trained code generation models (Codex, InCoder, and CodeGen) with varying sizes, reveal severe social biases. Moreover, we conduct analysis to provide useful insights for further choice of code generation models with low social bias. (This work contains examples that potentially implicate stereotypes, associations, and other harms that could be offensive to individuals in certain social groups.)
ForecastPFN: Synthetically-Trained Zero-Shot Forecasting
Venue: Conference NeurIPS 2023
Year: 2023

The vast majority of time-series forecasting approaches require a substantial training dataset. However, many real-life forecasting applications have very little initial observations, sometimes just 40 or fewer. Thus, the applicability of most forecasting methods is restricted in data-sparse commercial applications. While there is recent work in the setting of very limited initial data (so-called `zero-shot' forecasting), its performance is inconsistent depending on the data used for pretraining. In this work, we take a different approach and devise ForecastPFN, the first zero-shot forecasting model trained purely on a novel synthetic data distribution. ForecastPFN is a prior-data fitted network, trained to approximate Bayesian inference, which can make predictions on a new time series dataset in a single forward pass. Through extensive experiments, we show that zero-shot predictions made by ForecastPFN are more accurate and faster compared to state-of-the-art forecasting methods, even when the other methods are allowed to train on hundreds of additional in-distribution data points.
Exact Bayesian Inference on Discrete Models via Probability Generating Functions: A Probabilistic Programming Approach
Venue: Conference NeurIPS 2023
Year: 2023

We present an exact Bayesian inference method for discrete statistical models, which can find exact solutions to a large class of discrete inference problems, even with infinite support and continuous priors. To express such models, we introduce a probabilistic programming language that supports discrete and continuous sampling, discrete observations, affine functions, (stochastic) branching, and conditioning on discrete events. Our key tool is probability generating functions: they provide a compact closed-form representation of distributions that are definable by programs, thus enabling the exact computation of posterior probabilities, expectation, variance, and higher moments. Our inference method is provably correct and fully automated in a tool called Genfer, which uses automatic differentiation (specifically, Taylor polynomials), but does not require computer algebra. Our experiments show that Genfer is often faster than the existing exact inference tools PSI, Dice, and Prodigy. On a range of real-world inference problems that none of these exact tools can solve, Genfer's performance is competitive with approximate Monte Carlo methods, while avoiding approximation errors.
Principle-Driven Self-Alignment of Language Models from Scratch with Minimal Human Supervision
Venue: Conference NeurIPS 2023
Year: 2023

Recent AI-assistant agents, such as ChatGPT, predominantly rely on supervised fine-tuning (SFT) with human annotations and reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) to align the output of large language models (LLMs) with human intentions, ensuring they are helpful, ethical, and reliable. However, this dependence can significantly constrain the true potential of AI-assistant agents due to the high cost of obtaining human supervision and the related issues on quality, reliability, diversity, self-consistency, and undesirable biases. To address these challenges, we propose a novel approach called SELF-ALIGN, which combines principle-driven reasoning and the generative power of LLMs for the self-alignment of AI agents with minimal human supervision. Our approach encompasses four stages: first, we use an LLM to generate synthetic prompts, and a topic-guided method to augment the prompt diversity; second, we use a small set of human-written principles for AI models to follow, and guide the LLM through in-context learning from demonstrations (of principles application) to produce helpful, ethical, and reliable responses to user's queries; third, we fine-tune the original LLM with the high-quality self-aligned responses so that the resulting model can generate desirable responses for each query directly without the principle set and the demonstrations anymore; and finally, we offer a refinement step to address the issues of overly-brief or indirect responses. Applying SELF-ALIGN to the LLaMA-65b base language model, we develop an AI assistant named Dromedary. With fewer than 300 lines of human annotations (including < 200 seed prompts, 16 generic principles, and 5 exemplars for in-context learning). Dromedary significantly surpasses the performance of several state-of-the-art AI systems, including Text-Davinci-003 and Alpaca, on benchmark datasets with various settings.
Parts of Speech–Grounded Subspaces in Vision-Language Models
Venue: Conference NeurIPS 2023
Year: 2023

Latent image representations arising from vision-language models have proved immensely useful for a variety of downstream tasks. However, their utility is limited by their entanglement with respect to different visual attributes. For instance, recent work has shown that CLIP image representations are often biased toward specific visual properties (such as objects or actions) in an unpredictable manner. In this paper, we propose to separate representations of the different visual modalities in CLIP's joint vision-language space by leveraging the association between parts of speech and specific visual modes of variation (e.g. nouns relate to objects, adjectives describe appearance). This is achieved by formulating an appropriate component analysis model that learns subspaces capturing variability corresponding to a specific part of speech, while jointly minimising variability to the rest. Such a subspace yields disentangled representations of the different visual properties of an image or text in closed form while respecting the underlying geometry of the manifold on which the representations lie. What's more, we show the proposed model additionally facilitates learning subspaces corresponding to specific visual appearances (e.g. artists' painting styles), which enables the selective removal of entire visual themes from CLIP-based text-to-image synthesis. We validate the model both qualitatively, by visualising the subspace projections with a text-to-image model and by preventing the imitation of artists' styles, and quantitatively, through class invariance metrics and improvements to baseline zero-shot classification.
Estimating the Rate-Distortion Function by Wasserstein Gradient Descent
Venue: Conference NeurIPS 2023
Year: 2023

In the theory of lossy compression, the rate-distortion (R-D) function $R(D)$ describes how much a data source can be compressed (in bit-rate) at any given level of fidelity (distortion). Obtaining $R(D)$ for a given data source establishes the fundamental performance limit for all compression algorithms. We propose a new method to estimate $R(D)$ from the perspective of optimal transport. Unlike the classic Blahut--Arimoto algorithm which fixes the support of the reproduction distribution in advance, our Wasserstein gradient descent algorithm learns the support of the optimal reproduction distribution by moving particles. We prove its local convergence and analyze the sample complexity of our R-D estimator based on a connection to entropic optimal transport. Experimentally, we obtain comparable or tighter bounds than state-of-the-art neural network methods on low-rate sources while requiring considerably less tuning and computation effort. We also highlight a connection to maximum-likelihood deconvolution and introduce a new class of sources that can be used as test cases with known solutions to the R-D problem.
Consistent Aggregation of Objectives with Diverse Time Preferences Requires Non-Markovian Rewards
Venue: Conference NeurIPS 2023
Year: 2023

As the capabilities of artificial agents improve, they are being increasingly deployed to service multiple diverse objectives and stakeholders. However, the composition of these objectives is often performed ad hoc, with no clear justification. This paper takes a normative approach to multi-objective agency: from a set of intuitively appealing axioms, it is shown that Markovian aggregation of Markovian reward functions is not possible when the time preference (discount factor) for each objective may vary. It follows that optimal multi-objective agents must admit rewards that are non-Markovian with respect to the individual objectives. To this end, a practical non-Markovian aggregation scheme is proposed, which overcomes the impossibility with only one additional parameter for each objective. This work offers new insights into sequential, multi-objective agency and intertemporal choice, and has practical implications for the design of AI systems deployed to serve multiple generations of principals with varying time preference.
InstanT: Semi-supervised Learning with Instance-dependent Thresholds
Venue: Conference NeurIPS 2023
Year: 2023

Semi-supervised learning (SSL) has been a fundamental challenge in machine learning for decades. The primary family of SSL algorithms, known as pseudo-labeling, involves assigning pseudo-labels to confident unlabeled instances and incorporating them into the training set. Therefore, the selection criteria of confident instances are crucial to the success of SSL. Recently, there has been growing interest in the development of SSL methods that use dynamic or adaptive thresholds. Yet, these methods typically apply the same threshold to all samples, or use class-dependent thresholds for instances belonging to a certain class, while neglecting instance-level information. In this paper, we propose the study of instance-dependent thresholds, which has the highest degree of freedom compared with existing methods. Specifically, we devise a novel instance-dependent threshold function for all unlabeled instances by utilizing their instance-level ambiguity and the instance-dependent error rates of pseudo-labels, so instances that are more likely to have incorrect pseudo-labels will have higher thresholds. Furthermore, we demonstrate that our instance-dependent threshold function provides a bounded probabilistic guarantee for the correctness of the pseudo-labels it assigns.
Neural Lyapunov Control for Discrete-Time Systems
Venue: Conference NeurIPS 2023
Year: 2023

While ensuring stability for linear systems is well understood, it remains a major challenge for nonlinear systems. A general approach in such cases is to compute a combination of a Lyapunov function and an associated control policy. However, finding Lyapunov functions for general nonlinear systems is a challenging task. To address this challenge, several methods have been proposed that represent Lyapunov functions using neural networks. However, such approaches either focus on continuous-time systems, or highly restricted classes of nonlinear dynamics. We propose the first approach for learning neural Lyapunov control in a broad class of discrete-time systems. Three key ingredients enable us to effectively learn provably stable control policies. The first is a novel mixed-integer linear programming approach for verifying the discrete-time Lyapunov stability conditions, leveraging the particular structure of these conditions. The second is a novel approach for computing verified sublevel sets. The third is a heuristic gradient-based method for quickly finding counterexamples to significantly speed up Lyapunov function learning. Our experiments on four standard benchmarks demonstrate that our approach significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines. For example, on the path tracking benchmark, we outperform recent neural Lyapunov control baselines by an order of magnitude in both running time and the size of the region of attraction, and on two of the four benchmarks (cartpole and PVTOL), ours is the first automated approach to return a provably stable controller. Our code is available at: https://github.com/jlwu002/nlc_discrete.
Evolving Connectivity for Recurrent Spiking Neural Networks
Venue: Conference NeurIPS 2023
Year: 2023

Recurrent spiking neural networks (RSNNs) hold great potential for advancing artificial general intelligence, as they draw inspiration from the biological nervous system and show promise in modeling complex dynamics. However, the widely-used surrogate gradient-based training methods for RSNNs are inherently inaccurate and unfriendly to neuromorphic hardware. To address these limitations, we propose the evolving connectivity (EC) framework, an inference-only method for training RSNNs. The EC framework reformulates weight-tuning as a search into parameterized connection probability distributions, and employs Natural Evolution Strategies (NES) for optimizing these distributions. Our EC framework circumvents the need for gradients and features hardware-friendly characteristics, including sparse boolean connections and high scalability. We evaluate EC on a series of standard robotic locomotion tasks, where it achieves comparable performance with deep neural networks and outperforms gradient-trained RSNNs, even solving the complex 17-DoF humanoid task. Additionally, the EC framework demonstrates a two to three fold speedup in efficiency compared to directly evolving parameters. By providing a performant and hardware-friendly alternative, the EC framework lays the groundwork for further energy-efficient applications of RSNNs and advances the development of neuromorphic devices.
Transformed Low-Rank Parameterization Can Help Robust Generalization for Tensor Neural Networks
Venue: Conference NeurIPS 2023
Year: 2023

Achieving efficient and robust multi-channel data learning is a challenging task in data science. By exploiting low-rankness in the transformed domain, i.e., transformed low-rankness, tensor Singular Value Decomposition (t-SVD) has achieved extensive success in multi-channel data representation and has recently been extended to function representation such as Neural Networks with t-product layers (t-NNs). However, it still remains unclear how t-SVD theoretically affects the learning behavior of t-NNs. This paper is the first to answer this question by deriving the upper bounds of the generalization error of both standard and adversarially trained t-NNs. It reveals that the t-NNs compressed by exact transformed low-rank parameterization can achieve a sharper adversarial generalization bound. In practice, although t-NNs rarely have exactly transformed low-rank weights, our analysis further shows that by adversarial training with gradient flow (GF), the over-parameterized t-NNs with ReLU activations are trained with implicit regularization towards transformed low-rank parameterization under certain conditions. We also establish adversarial generalization bounds for t-NNs with approximately transformed low-rank weights. Our analysis indicates that the transformed low-rank parameterization can promisingly enhance robust generalization for t-NNs.
Testing the General Deductive Reasoning Capacity of Large Language Models Using OOD Examples
Venue: Conference NeurIPS 2023
Year: 2023

Given the intractably large size of the space of proofs, any model that is capable of general deductive reasoning must generalize to proofs of greater complexity. Recent studies have shown that large language models (LLMs) possess some abstract deductive reasoning ability given chain-of-thought prompts. However, they have primarily been tested on proofs using modus ponens or of a specific size, and from the same distribution as the in-context examples. To measure the general deductive reasoning ability of LLMs, we test on a broad set of deduction rules and measure their ability to generalize to more complex proofs from simpler demonstrations from multiple angles: depth-, width-, and compositional generalization. To facilitate systematic exploration, we construct a new synthetic and programmable reasoning dataset that enables control over deduction rules and proof complexity. Our experiments on four LLMs of various sizes and training objectives show that they are able to generalize to compositional proofs. However, they have difficulty generalizing to longer proofs, and they require explicit demonstrations to produce hypothetical subproofs, specifically in proof by cases and proof by contradiction.
Accountability in Offline Reinforcement Learning: Explaining Decisions with a Corpus of Examples
Venue: Conference NeurIPS 2023
Year: 2023

Learning controllers with offline data in decision-making systems is an essential area of research due to its potential to reduce the risk of applications in real-world systems. However, in responsibility-sensitive settings such as healthcare, decision accountability is of paramount importance, yet has not been adequately addressed by the literature. This paper introduces the Accountable Offline Controller (AOC) that employs the offline dataset as the Decision Corpus and performs accountable control based on a tailored selection of examples, referred to as the Corpus Subset. AOC operates effectively in low-data scenarios, can be extended to the strictly offline imitation setting, and displays qualities of both conservation and adaptability. We assess AOC's performance in both simulated and real-world healthcare scenarios, emphasizing its capability to manage offline control tasks with high levels of performance while maintaining accountability.
Type-to-Track: Retrieve Any Object via Prompt-based Tracking
Venue: Conference NeurIPS 2023
Year: 2023

One of the recent trends in vision problems is to use natural language captions to describe the objects of interest. This approach can overcome some limitations of traditional methods that rely on bounding boxes or category annotations. This paper introduces a novel paradigm for Multiple Object Tracking called Type-to-Track, which allows users to track objects in videos by typing natural language descriptions. We present a new dataset for that Grounded Multiple Object Tracking task, called GroOT, that contains videos with various types of objects and their corresponding textual captions describing their appearance and action in detail. Additionally, we introduce two new evaluation protocols and formulate evaluation metrics specifically for this task. We develop a new efficient method that models a transformer-based eMbed-ENcoDE-extRact framework (MENDER) using the third-order tensor decomposition. The experiments in five scenarios show that our MENDER approach outperforms another two-stage design in terms of accuracy and efficiency, up to 14.7% accuracy and 4$\times$ speed faster.
Finding Counterfactually Optimal Action Sequences in Continuous State Spaces
Venue: Conference NeurIPS 2023
Year: 2023

Whenever a clinician reflects on the efficacy of a sequence of treatment decisions for a patient, they may try to identify critical time steps where, had they made different decisions, the patient's health would have improved. While recent methods at the intersection of causal inference and reinforcement learning promise to aid human experts, as the clinician above, to retrospectively analyze sequential decision making processes, they have focused on environments with finitely many discrete states. However, in many practical applications, the state of the environment is inherently continuous in nature. In this paper, we aim to fill this gap. We start by formally characterizing a sequence of discrete actions and continuous states using finite horizon Markov decision processes and a broad class of bijective structural causal models. Building upon this characterization, we formalize the problem of finding counterfactually optimal action sequences and show that, in general, we cannot expect to solve it in polynomial time. Then, we develop a search method based on the $A^*$ algorithm that, under a natural form of Lipschitz continuity of the environment's dynamics, is guaranteed to return the optimal solution to the problem. Experiments on real clinical data show that our method is very efficient in practice, and it has the potential to offer interesting insights for sequential decision making tasks.
Reusing Pretrained Models by Multi-linear Operators for Efficient Training
Venue: Conference NeurIPS 2023
Year: 2023

Training large models from scratch usually costs a substantial amount of resources. Towards this problem, recent studies such as bert2BERT and LiGO have reused small pretrained models to initialize a large model (termed the ``target model''), leading to a considerable acceleration in training. Despite the successes of these previous studies, they grew pretrained models by mapping partial weights only, ignoring potential correlations across the entire model. As we show in this paper, there are inter- and intra-interactions among the weights of both the pretrained and the target models. As a result, the partial mapping may not capture the complete information and lead to inadequate growth. In this paper, we propose a method that linearly correlates each weight of the target model to all the weights of the pretrained model to further enhance acceleration ability. We utilize multi-linear operators to reduce computational and spacial complexity, enabling acceptable resource requirements. Experiments demonstrate that our method can save 76\% computational costs on DeiT-base transferred from DeiT-small, which outperforms bert2BERT by +12.0\% and LiGO by +20.7\%, respectively.