OpenRaiser/Intern-Atlas huggingface dataset:
Learning to Prescribe Interventions for Tuberculosis Patients Using Digital Adherence Data
Venue: Conference KDD 2019
Year: 2019

Digital Adherence Technologies (DATs) are an increasingly popular method for verifying patient adherence to many medications. We analyze data from one city served by 99DOTS, a phone-call-based DAT deployed for Tuberculosis (TB) treatment in India where nearly 3 million people are afflicted with the disease each year. The data contains nearly 17,000 patients and 2.1M dose records. We lay the groundwork for learning from this real-world data, including a method for avoiding the effects of unobserved interventions in training data used for machine learning. We then construct a deep learning model, demonstrate its interpretability, and show how it can be adapted and trained in different clinical scenarios to better target and improve patient care. In the real-time risk prediction setting our model could be used to proactively intervene with 21% more patients and before 76% more missed doses than current heuristic baselines. For outcome prediction, our model performs 40% better than baseline methods, allowing cities to target more resources to clinics with a heavier burden of patients at risk of failure. Finally, we present a case study demonstrating how our model can be trained in an end-to-end decision focused learning setting to achieve 15% better solution quality in an example decision problem faced by health workers.
Personalized Purchase Prediction of Market Baskets with Wasserstein-Based Sequence Matching
Venue: Conference KDD 2019
Year: 2019

Personalization in marketing aims at improving the shopping experience of customers by tailoring services to individuals. In order to achieve this, businesses must be able to make personalized predictions regarding the next purchase. That is, one must forecast the exact list of items that will comprise the next purchase, i.e., the so-called market basket. Despite its relevance to firm operations, this problem has received surprisingly little attention in prior research, largely due to its inherent complexity. In fact, state-of-the-art approaches are limited to intuitive decision rules for pattern extraction. However, the simplicity of the pre-coded rules impedes performance, since decision rules operate in an autoregressive fashion: the rules can only make inferences from past purchases of a single customer without taking into account the knowledge transfer that takes place between customers. In contrast, our research overcomes the limitations of pre-set rules by contributing a novel predictor of market baskets from sequential purchase histories: our predictions are based on similarity matching in order to identify similar purchase habits among the complete shopping histories of all customers. Our contributions are as follows: (1) We propose similarity matching based on subsequential dynamic time warping (SDTW) as a novel predictor of market baskets. Thereby, we can effectively identify cross-customer patterns. (2) We leverage the Wasserstein distance for measuring the similarity among embedded purchase histories. (3) We develop a fast approximation algorithm for computing a lower bound of the Wasserstein distance in our setting. An extensive series of computational experiments demonstrates the effectiveness of our approach. The accuracy of identifying the exact market baskets based on state-of-the-art decision rules from the literature is outperformed by a factor of 4.0.
Precipitation Nowcasting with Satellite Imagery
Venue: Conference KDD 2019
Year: 2019

Precipitation nowcasting is a short-range forecast of rain/snow (up to 2 hours), often displayed on top of the geographical map by the weather service. Modern precipitation nowcasting algorithms rely on the extrapolation of observations by ground-based radars via optical flow techniques or neural network models. Dependent on these radars, typical nowcasting is limited to the regions around their locations. We have developed a method for precipitation nowcasting based on geostationary satellite imagery and incorporated the resulting data into the Yandex.Weather precipitation map (including an alerting service with push notifications for products in the Yandex ecosystem), thus expanding its coverage and paving the way to a truly global nowcasting service.
Sample Adaptive Multiple Kernel Learning for Failure Prediction of Railway Points
Venue: Conference KDD 2019
Year: 2019

Railway points are among the key components of railway infrastructure. As a part of signal equipment, points control the routes of trains at railway junctions, having a significant impact on the reliability, capacity, and punctuality of rail transport. Traditionally, maintenance of points is based on a fixed time interval or raised after the equipment failures. Instead, it would be of great value if we could forecast points' failures and take action beforehand, minimising any negative effect. To date, most of the existing prediction methods are either lab-based or relying on specially installed sensors which makes them infeasible for large-scale implementation. Besides, they often use data from only one source. We, therefore, explore a new way that integrates multi-source data which are ready to hand to fulfil this task. We conducted our case study based on Sydney Trains rail network which is an extensive network of passenger and freight railways. Unfortunately, the real-world data are usually incomplete due to various reasons, e.g., faults in the database, operational errors or transmission faults. Besides, railway points differ in their locations, types and some other properties, which means it is hard to use a unified model to predict their failures. Aiming at this challenging task, we firstly constructed a dataset from multiple sources and selected key features with the help of domain experts. In this paper, we formulate our prediction task as a multiple kernel learning problem with missing kernels. We present a robust multiple kernel learning algorithm for predicting points failures. Our model takes into account the missing pattern of data as well as the inherent variance on different sets of railway points. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of our algorithm compared with other state-of-the-art methods.
Predicting Path Failure In Time-Evolving Graphs
Venue: Conference KDD 2019
Year: 2019

In this paper we use a time-evolving graph which consists of a sequence of graph snapshots over time to model many real-world networks. We study the path classification problem in a time-evolving graph, which has many applications in real-world scenarios, for example, predicting path failure in a telecommunication network and predicting path congestion in a traffic network in the near future. In order to capture the temporal dependency and graph structure dynamics, we design a novel deep neural network named Long Short-Term Memory R-GCN (LRGCN). LRGCN considers temporal dependency between time-adjacent graph snapshots as a special relation with memory, and uses relational GCN to jointly process both intra-time and inter-time relations. We also propose a new path representation method named self-attentive path embedding (SAPE), to embed paths of arbitrary length into fixed-length vectors. Through experiments on a real-world telecommunication network and a traffic network in California, we demonstrate the superiority of LRGCN to other competing methods in path failure prediction, and prove the effectiveness of SAPE on path representation.
EdMot: An Edge Enhancement Approach for Motif-aware Community Detection
Venue: Conference KDD 2019
Year: 2019

Network community detection is a hot research topic in network analysis. Although many methods have been proposed for community detection, most of them only take into consideration the lower-order structure of the network at the level of individual nodes and edges. Thus, they fail to capture the higher-order characteristics at the level of small dense subgraph patterns, e.g., motifs. Recently, some higher-order methods have been developed but they typically focus on the motif-based hypergraph which is assumed to be a connected graph. However, such assumption cannot be ensured in some real-world networks. In particular, the hypergraph may become fragmented. That is, it may consist of a large number of connected components and isolated nodes, despite the fact that the original network is a connected graph. Therefore, the existing higher-order methods would suffer seriously from the above fragmentation issue, since in these approaches, nodes without connection in hypergraph can't be grouped together even if they belong to the same community. To address the above fragmentation issue, we propose an Edge enhancement approach for Motif-aware community detection (EdMot). The main idea is as follows. Firstly, a motif-based hypergraph is constructed and the top K largest connected components in the hypergraph are partitioned into modules. Afterwards, the connectivity structure within each module is strengthened by constructing an edge set to derive a clique from each module. Based on the new edge set, the original connectivity structure of the input network is enhanced to generate a rewired network, whereby the motif-based higher-order structure is leveraged and the hypergraph fragmentation issue is well addressed. Finally, the rewired network is partitioned to obtain the higher-order community structure.
UrbanFM: Inferring Fine-Grained Urban Flows
Venue: Conference KDD 2019
Year: 2019

Urban flow monitoring systems play important roles in smart city efforts around the world. However, the ubiquitous deployment of monitoring devices, such as CCTVs, induces a long-lasting and enormous cost for maintenance and operation. This suggests the need for a technology that can reduce the number of deployed devices, while preventing the degeneration of data accuracy and granularity. In this paper, we aim to infer the real-time and fine-grained crowd flows throughout a city based on coarse-grained observations. This task is challenging due to two reasons: the spatial correlations between coarse- and fine-grained urban flows, and the complexities of external impacts. To tackle these issues, we develop a method entitled UrbanFM based on deep neural networks. Our model consists of two major parts: 1) an inference network to generate fine-grained flow distributions from coarse-grained inputs by using a feature extraction module and a novel distributional upsampling module; 2) a general fusion subnet to further boost the performance by considering the influences of different external factors. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets, namely TaxiBJ and HappyValley, validate the effectiveness and efficiency of our method compared to seven baselines, demonstrating the state-of-the-art performance of our approach on the fine-grained urban flow inference problem.
A User-Centered Concept Mining System for Query and Document Understanding at Tencent
Venue: Conference KDD 2019
Year: 2019

Concepts embody the knowledge of the world and facilitate the cognitive processes of human beings. Mining concepts from web documents and constructing the corresponding taxonomy are core research problems in text understanding and support many downstream tasks such as query analysis, knowledge base construction, recommendation, and search. However, we argue that most prior studies extract formal and overly general concepts from Wikipedia or static web pages, which are not representing the user perspective. In this paper, we describe our experience of implementing and deploying ConcepT in Tencent QQ Browser. It discovers user-centered concepts at the right granularity conforming to user interests, by mining a large amount of user queries and interactive search click logs. The extracted concepts have the proper granularity, are consistent with user language styles and are dynamically updated. We further present our techniques to tag documents with user-centered concepts and to construct a topic-concept-instance taxonomy, which has helped to improve search as well as news feeds recommendation in Tencent QQ Browser. We performed extensive offline evaluation to demonstrate that our approach could extract concepts of higher quality compared to several other existing methods. Our system has been deployed in Tencent QQ Browser. Results from online A/B testing involving a large number of real users suggest that the Impression Efficiency of feeds users increased by 6.01% after incorporating the user-centered concepts into the recommendation framework of Tencent QQ Browser.
Real-time Attention Based Look-alike Model for Recommender System
Venue: Conference KDD 2019
Year: 2019

Recently, deep learning models play more and more important roles in contents recommender systems. However, although the performance of recommendations is greatly improved, the "Matthew effect" becomes increasingly evident. While the head contents get more and more popular, many competitive long-tail contents are difficult to achieve timely exposure because of lacking behavior features. This issue has badly impacted the quality and diversity of recommendations. To solve this problem, look-alike algorithm is a good choice to extend audience for high quality long-tail contents. But the traditional look-alike models which widely used in online advertising are not suitable for recommender systems because of the strict requirement of both real-time and effectiveness. This paper introduces a real-time attention based look-alike model (RALM) for recommender systems, which tackles the challenge of conflict between real-time and effectiveness. RALM realizes real-time look-alike audience extension benefiting from seeds-to-user similarity prediction and improves the effectiveness through optimizing user representation learning and look-alike learning modeling. For user representation learning, we propose a novel neural network structure named attention merge layer to replace the concatenation layer, which significantly improves the expressive ability of multi-fields feature learning. On the other hand, considering the various members of seeds, we design global attention unit and local attention unit to learn robust and adaptive seeds representation with respect to a certain target user. At last, we introduce seeds clustering mechanism which not only reduces the time complexity of attention units prediction but also minimizes the loss of seeds information at the same time. According to our experiments, RALM shows superior effectiveness and performance than popular look-alike models.
Is a Single Vector Enough?: Exploring Node Polysemy for Network Embedding
Venue: Conference KDD 2019
Year: 2019

Networks have been widely used as the data structure for abstracting real-world systems as well as organizing the relations among entities. Network embedding models are powerful tools in mapping nodes in a network into continuous vector-space representations in order to facilitate subsequent tasks such as classification and link prediction. Existing network embedding models comprehensively integrate all information of each node, such as links and attributes, towards a single embedding vector to represent the node's general role in the network. However, a real-world entity could be multifaceted, where it connects to different neighborhoods due to different motives or self-characteristics that are not necessarily correlated. For example, in a movie recommender system, a user may love comedies or horror movies simultaneously, but it is not likely that these two types of movies are mutually close in the embedding space, nor the user embedding vector could be sufficiently close to them at the same time. In this paper, we propose a polysemous embedding approach for modeling multiple facets of nodes, as motivated by the phenomenon of word polysemy in language modeling. Each facet of a node is mapped as an embedding vector, while we also maintain association degree between each pair of node and facet. The proposed method is adaptive to various existing embedding models, without significantly complicating the optimization process. We also discuss how to engage embedding vectors of different facets for inference tasks including classification and link prediction. Experiments on real-world datasets help comprehensively evaluate the performance of the proposed method.
Exploiting Cognitive Structure for Adaptive Learning
Venue: Conference KDD 2019
Year: 2019

Adaptive learning, also known as adaptive teaching, relies on learning path recommendation, which sequentially recommends personalized learning items (e.g., lectures, exercises) to satisfy the unique needs of each learner. Although it is well known that modeling the cognitive structure including knowledge level of learners and knowledge structure (e.g., the prerequisite relations) of learning items is important for learning path recommendation, existing methods for adaptive learning often separately focus on either knowledge levels of learners or knowledge structure of learning items. To fully exploit the multifaceted cognitive structure for learning path recommendation, we propose a Cognitive Structure Enhanced framework for Adaptive Learning, named CSEAL. By viewing path recommendation as a Markov Decision Process and applying an actor-critic algorithm, CSEAL can sequentially identify the right learning items to different learners. Specifically, we first utilize a recurrent neural network to trace the evolving knowledge levels of learners at each learning step. Then, we design a navigation algorithm on the knowledge structure to ensure the logicality of learning paths, which reduces the search space in the decision process. Finally, the actor-critic algorithm is used to determine what to learn next and whose parameters are dynamically updated along the learning path. Extensive experiments on real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of CSEAL.
Hierarchical Gating Networks for Sequential Recommendation
Venue: Conference KDD 2019
Year: 2019

The chronological order of user-item interactions is a key feature in many recommender systems, where the items that users will interact may largely depend on those items that users just accessed recently. However, with the tremendous increase of users and items, sequential recommender systems still face several challenging problems: (1) the hardness of modeling the long-term user interests from sparse implicit feedback; (2) the difficulty of capturing the short-term user interests given several items the user just accessed. To cope with these challenges, we propose a hierarchical gating network (HGN), integrated with the Bayesian Personalized Ranking (BPR) to capture both the long-term and short-term user interests. Our HGN consists of a feature gating module, an instance gating module, and an item-item product module. In particular, our feature gating and instance gating modules select what item features can be passed to the downstream layers from the feature and instance levels, respectively. Our item-item product module explicitly captures the item relations between the items that users accessed in the past and those items users will access in the future. We extensively evaluate our model with several state-of-the-art methods and different validation metrics on five real-world datasets. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our model on Top-N sequential recommendation.
Interpretable and Steerable Sequence Learning via Prototypes
Venue: Conference KDD 2019
Year: 2019

One of the major challenges in machine learning nowadays is to provide predictions with not only high accuracy but also user-friendly explanations. Although in recent years we have witnessed increasingly popular use of deep neural networks for sequence modeling, it is still challenging to explain the rationales behind the model outputs, which is essential for building trust and supporting the domain experts to validate, critique and refine the model. We propose ProSeNet, an interpretable and steerable deep sequence model with natural explanations derived from case-based reasoning. The prediction is obtained by comparing the inputs to a few prototypes, which are exemplar cases in the problem domain. For better interpretability, we define several criteria for constructing the prototypes, including simplicity, diversity, and sparsity and propose the learning objective and the optimization procedure. ProSeNet also provides a user-friendly approach to model steering: domain experts without any knowledge on the underlying model or parameters can easily incorporate their intuition and experience by manually refining the prototypes. We conduct experiments on a wide range of real-world applications, including predictive diagnostics for automobiles, ECG, and protein sequence classification and sentiment analysis on texts. The result shows that ProSeNet can achieve accuracy on par with state-of-the-art deep learning models. We also evaluate the interpretability of the results with concrete case studies. Finally, through user study on Amazon Mechanical Turk (MTurk), we demonstrate that the model selects high-quality prototypes which align well with human knowledge and can be interactively refined for better interpretability without loss of performance.
Deep Spatio-Temporal Neural Networks for Click-Through Rate Prediction
Venue: Conference KDD 2019
Year: 2019

Click-through rate (CTR) prediction is a critical task in online advertising systems. A large body of research considers each ad independently, but ignores its relationship to other ads that may impact the CTR. In this paper, we investigate various types of auxiliary ads for improving the CTR prediction of the target ad. In particular, we explore auxiliary ads from two viewpoints: one is from the spatial domain, where we consider the contextual ads shown above the target ad on the same page; the other is from the temporal domain, where we consider historically clicked and unclicked ads of the user. The intuitions are that ads shown together may influence each other, clicked ads reflect a user's preferences, and unclicked ads may indicate what a user dislikes to certain extent. In order to effectively utilize these auxiliary data, we propose the Deep Spatio-Temporal neural Networks (DSTNs) for CTR prediction. Our model is able to learn the interactions between each type of auxiliary data and the target ad, to emphasize more important hidden information, and to fuse heterogeneous data in a unified framework. Offline experiments on one public dataset and two industrial datasets show that DSTNs outperform several state-of-the-art methods for CTR prediction. We have deployed the best-performing DSTN in Shenma Search, which is the second largest search engine in China. The A/B test results show that the online CTR is also significantly improved compared to our last serving model.