# On the Economy of Machinery and Manufactures/Chapter 25

(298.) There are many inquiries which ought always to be made previous to the commencement of the manufacture of any new article. These chiefly relate to the expense of tools, machinery, raw materials, and all the outgoings necessary for its production,—to the extent of demand which is likely to arise,—to the time in which the circulating capital will be replaced,—and to the quickness or slowness with which the new article will supersede those already in use.
(299.) The expense of tools and of new machines will be more difficult to ascertain, in proportion as they differ from those already employed; but the variety in constant use in our various manufactories, is such, that few inventions now occur in which considerable resemblance may not be traced to others already constructed. The cost of the raw material is usually less difficult to determine; but cases occasionally arise in which it becomes important to examine whether the supply, at the given price, can be depended upon: for, in the case of a small consumption, the additional demand arising from a factory may produce a considerable temporary rise, though it may ultimately reduce the price.
​(300.) The quantity of any new article likely to be consumed is a most important subject for the consideration of the projector of a new manufacture. As these pages are not intended for the instruction of the manufacturer, but rather for the purpose of giving a general view of the subject, an illustration of the way in which such questions are regarded by practical men, will, perhaps, be most instructive. The following extract from the evidence given before a Committee of the House of Commons, in the Report on Artizans and Machinery, shews the extent to which articles apparently the most insignificant, are consumed, and the view which the manufacterer takes of them.
The person examined on this occasion was Mr. Ostler, a manufacturer of glass beads and other toys of the same substance, from Birmingham. Several of the articles made by him were placed upon the table, for the inspection of the Committee of the House of Commons, which held its meetings in one of the committee-rooms.
"Question. Is there any thing else you have to state upon this subject?"
"Answer. Gentlemen may consider the articles on the table as extremely insignificant; but perhaps I may surprise them a little, by mentioning the following fact Eighteen years ago, on my first journey to London, a respectable-looking man, in the city, asked me if I could supply him with dolls' eyes; and I was foolish enough to feel half offended; I thought it derogatory to my new dignity as a manufacturer, to make dolls' eyes. He took me into a room quite as wide, and perhaps twice the length of this, and we had just room to walk between stacks, from the floor to the ceiling, of parts of dolls. He ​said, 'These are only the legs and arms; the trunks are below.' But I saw enough to convince me, that he wanted a great many eyes; and, as the article appeared quite in my own line of business, I said I would take an order by way of experiment; and he shewed me several specimens. I copied the order. He ordered various quantities, and of various sizes and qualities. On returning to the Tavistock hotel, I found that the order amounted to upwards of 500l. I went into the country, and endeavoured to make them. I had some of the most ingenious glass toy-makers in the kingdom in my service; but when I shewed it to them, they shook their heads, and said they had often seen the article before, but could not make it. I engaged them by presents to use their best exertions; but after trying and wasting a great deal of time for three or four weeks, I was obliged to relinquish the attempt. Soon afterwards I engaged in another branch of business (chandelier furniture), and took no more notice of it. About eighteen months ago I resumed the trinket trade, and then determined to think of the dolls' eyes; and about eight months since, I accidentally met with a poor fellow who had impoverished himself by drinking, and who was dying in a consumption, in a state of great want. I showed him ten sovereigns; and he said he would instruct me in the process. He was in such a state that he could not bear the effluvia of his own lamp; but though I was very conversant with the manual part of the business, and it related to things I was daily in the habit of seeing, I felt I could do nothing from his description. (I mention this to show how difficult it is to convey, by description, the mode of working.) He took me into his garret, where the poor fellow had economized to such a degree, that he actually used the entrails and fat of poultry from Leadenhall market to save oil (the price of the article having been lately so much reduced by competition at home.) In an instant, before I had seen ​him make three, I felt competent to make a gross; and the difference between his mode and that of my own workmen was so trifling, that I felt the utmost astonishment."
"Quest. You can now make dolls' eyes?"
"Ans. I can. As it was eighteen years ago that I received the order I have mentioned, and feeling doubtful of my own recollection, though very strong, and suspecting that it could [not] have been to the amount stated, I last night took the present very reduced price of that article (less than half now of what it was then), and calculating that every child in this country not using a doll till two years old, and throwing it aside at seven, and having a new one annually, I satisfied myself that the eyes alone would produce a circulation of a great many thousand pounds. I mention this merely to shew the importance of trifles; and to assign one reason, amongst many, for my conviction, that nothing but personal communication can enable our manufactures to be transplanted."
(301.) In many instances it is exceedingly difficult to estimate beforehand the sale of an article, or the effects of a machine; a case, however, occurred during a recent inquiry, which although not quite appropriate as an illustration of probable demand, is highly instructive as to the mode of conducting investigations of this nature. A committee of the House of Commons was appointed to inquire into the tolls proper to be placed on steam-carriages; a question, apparently, of difficult solution, and upon which widely different opinions had been formed, if we may judge by the very different rate of tolls imposed upon such carriages by different "turnpike trusts." The principles on which the committee conducted the inquiry were, that "The only ground on which a fair claim to toll can be made on any public road, is to raise ​a fund, which, with the strictest economy, shall be just sufficient,—first, to repay the expense of its original formation;—secondly, to maintain it in good and sufficient repair." They first endeavoured to ascertain, from competent persons, the effect of the atmosphere alone in deteriorating a well-constructed road. The next step was, to determine the proportion in which the road was injured, by the effect of the horses' feet compared with that of the wheels. Mr. Macneill, the superintendent, under Mr. Telford, of the Holyhead roads, was examined, and proposed to estimate the relative injury, from the comparative quantities of iron worn off from the shoes of the horses, and from the tire of the wheels. From the data he possessed, respecting the consumption of iron for the tire of the wheels, and for the shoes of the horses, of one of the Birmingham day-coaches, he estimated the wear and tear of roads, arising from the feet of the horses, to be three times as great as that arising from the wheels. Supposing repairs amounting to a hundred pounds to be required on a road travelled over by a fast coach at the rate of ten miles an hour, and the same amount of injury to occur on another road, used only by waggons, moving at the rate of three miles an hour, Mr. Macneill divides the injuries in the following proportions:—
Supposing it, therefore, to be ascertained that the wheels of steam-carriages do no more injury to roads than other carriages of equal weight travelling with the same velocity, the committee now possessed the means of approximating to a just rate of toll for steam-carriages.
(302.) As connected with this subject, and as affording most valuable information upon points in which, previous to experiment, widely different opinions have been entertained; the following extract is inserted from Mr. Telford's Report on the State of the Holyhead and Liverpool Roads. The instrument employed for the comparison was invented by Mr. Macneill; and the road between London and Shrewsbury was selected for the place of experiment.
The general results, when a waggon weighing 21 cwt. was used on different sorts of roads, are as follows:—
lbs.
The following statement relates to the force required to draw a coach weighing 18 cwt., exclusive of seven passengers, up roads of various inclinations:
| INCLINATION. | Force required at Six Miles per Hour. | Force at Eight Miles per Hour. | Force at Ten Miles per Hour. |
| 1 in 20 1 in 30 1 in 26 1 in 40 1 in 600 | lbs. 268 213 165 160 111 | lbs. 296 219 196 166 120 | lbs. 318 255 200 172 128 |
(303.) In establishing a new manufactory, the time in which the goods produced can be brought to market and the returns be realized, should be thoroughly considered, as well as the time the new article will take to supersede those already in use. If it is destroyed in using, the new produce will be much more easily introduced. Steel pens readily took the place of quills; and a new form of pen would, if it possessed any advantage, as easily supersede the present one. A new lock, however secure, and however cheap, ​would not so readily make its way. If less expensive than the old, it would be employed in new work: but old locks would rarely be removed to make way for it; and even if perfectly secure, its advance would be slow.
(304.) Another element in this question which should not be altogether omitted, is the opposition which the new manufacture may create by its real or apparent injury to other interests, and the probable effect of that opposition. This is not always foreseen; and when anticipated is often inaccurately estimated. On the first establishment of steam-boats from London to Margate, the proprietors of the coaches running on that line of road petitioned the House of Commons against them, as likely to lead to the ruin of the coach proprietors. It was, however, found that the fear was imaginary; and in a very few years, the number of coaches on that road was considerably increased, apparently through the very means which were thought to be adverse to it. The fear, which is now entertained, that steam-power and rail-roads may drive out of employment a large proportion of the horses at present in use, is probably not less unfounded. On some particular lines such an effect might be produced; but in all probability the number of horses employed in conveying goods and passengers to the great lines of rail-road, would exceed that which is at present used.
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