# Petty's Place in the History of Economic Theory/4

published in The Quarterly Journal of Economics, May 1900, pp. 307-340
IV.
The second group of Petty's pamphlets, comprising the Political Anatomy of Ireland (1672) and the Political Arithmetick (1676), is predominantly descriptive. As might be expected from the specific circumstances which gave rise to the Political Anatomy of Ireland, its chief value springs from its author's unrivalled acquaintance with the condition of that island during the quarter-century after the Cromwellian settlement. Undeniably, the book has its blemishes. It contains some of the least admissible of Petty's calculations. It is not without numerical trivialities. But, on the whole, its merit is high. Economically, however, it merely repeats the suggestions of the earlier pamphlets, adding little or nothing new to Petty's known ideas. The Political Arithmetick deals chiefly with England. It, too, is in a sense descriptive. But detailed description is here consistently subordinated to a political purpose. The book is Petty's comment upon the rivalry between England and the continental nations for commercial control of the world. Of that great conflict it was his peculiar merit to take a large view. He ​recognized with a clearness of vision unparalleled in his time that the contest was already world-wide, and that the whole strength of Britain must be called into play. He was accordingly the first to propose the legislative union of Ireland with England, and also the earliest of imperial unionists. He saw, too, that the struggle was not a matter for one parliament or one reign. Various opponents had succeeded one another upon the continental side of the board,—Portugal, Spain, the Netherlands. Who should close the contest he could no more foresee than we can decide to-day whether the last player against Britain shall be Russia or America. But his prescience of the immediate future was extraordinary. Earlier than any of his contemporaries he discerned that the day of the Netherlands was passed. His thesis, supported with increasing vigor from the Treatise of Taxes, in 1662, to the Five Essays, written a quarter of a century later, is that England must find her rival for the trade of the world to the south, no longer to the north, of the Scheldt. And in a contest with France, as he never tires of showing, England has all the natural advantages necessary to ultimate success.
The argument of the Political Arithmetick might almost be condensed, though at some risk of misrepresenting the author's temper, into the words of a not unknown verse, — "We don't want to fight; but, by jingo, if we do, We've got the ships, we've got the men, we've got the money, too."
​"That the People and Territories of the King of England are naturally near as considerable for Wealth and Strength as those of France," that England can "maintain a hundred thousand Foot, thirty thousand horse, and forty thousand men at sea," that there is in England "Money sufficient to drive the Trade of the Nation," and "Stock competent and convenient to drive the Trade of the whole Commercial World,"—such are the propositions to whose demonstration Petty addresses himself. His line of argument is ingenious. He first proves, by the example of Holland, that a small country and few people may, by their situation, trade, and policy, be equivalent in wealth and strength to a far greater people and territory. Examination of the geographical situation leads him to the conclusion that conveniences for shipping and water carriage do most eminently and fundamentally conduce thereunto; and he points out very shrewdly how the inferiority of France in ports, and consequently in seafaring people, constitutes a real and natural impediment to her power. Meanwhile on land the conditions are not so unequal as they seem. To be sure, "the King of England hath about Ten Million of Subjects, ubivis Terrarum Orbis, and the King of France about Thirteen and ½." But, "Although it be very material to know the number of Subjects belonging to each Prince, yet when the Question is concerning their Wealth and Strength, It is also material to examine how many of them do get more than they spend and how many less." ​This introduces a new element into the calculation of "the value of people" as we met it in the Treatise and in Verbum Sapienti. Some individuals are not "superlucrators," and must be excluded. For example, there are twenty thousand churchmen in England, and over two hundred and seventy thousand in France. This quarter of a million of supernumerary clergymen, withdrawn out of the world, are adult and able-bodied persons, and consequently "equivalent to about double the same number of the promiscuous Mass of Mankind; ... wherefore the said Two Hundred and Fifty Thousand Churchmen (living as they do) makes the King of France's Thirteen Millions and a half to be less than Thirteen." He then shows further that the King of England has forty thousand seamen, and the King of France ten thousand. "But one seaman earneth as much as three common Husbandmen; wherefore this difference in seamen addeth to the account of the King of England's Subjects an advantage equivalent to Sixty Thousand Husbandmen." Similarly, the superiority of England in artisans employed upon shipping of all sorts, who likewise earn three times as much per capita as husbandmen, adds the equivalent of eighty thousand husbandmen more. Still further, the King of England's territories are, because of their coast line and deep rivers, "in effect but 12 miles from Navigable Water, the King of France's 65, ... upon which grounds it is clear that England can be supplied with all gross and bulky commodities of Foreign growth and Manufacture at far cheaper rates than France can be, namely, at about 4s. per cent, cheaper, the Land carriage ... being so much or thereabouts." This cannot amount to less than the labor of one million people. Thus the effective population of France is reduced from 13½ to 12 millions. ​Here the argument takes a new and concluding turn: "Lastly, I offer to the consideration of all those, who have travelled through England and France; whether the Plebians of England (for they constitute the bulk of any Nation) do not spend a sixth part more than the Plebians of France? And if so, it is necessary that they must first get it; and consequently that Ten Millions of the King of England's subjects, are equivalent to Twelve of the King of France; and upon the whole matter, to Thirteen Millions, at which the French Nation was estimated."
It is not necessary to pursue the contentions of the Political Arithmetick further, in order to see that the impediments of the greatness of France, such as paucity of ports, are natural and perpetual, while the impediments of England's greatness, being political, are but contingent and removable. Nor shall I follow him here into the interesting discussion of the amount of money that the nation has and the amount that it needs. Enough has been brought forward to show both the extent to which Petty pushed his calculations of "the value of people," and his high estimate of their relative importance in that "Par or Equation between Lands and Labor" which he regarded as "the most important Consideration in Political Economies."
The Essays in Political Arithmetick, together with the Quantulumcunque, form the third group of Petty's writings. They are almost altogether taken up with attempts to calculate the population of various cities. Like the Political Arithmetick itself, they have a public purpose. ​They explain to James II., who, at least in Petty's fancy, was willing, if only he could afford it, to cut loose from the dependence upon France inaugurated by his brother, that his own capital of London was a greater city than Paris, and, indeed, the greatest in the world. From this demonstration it is clear that Petty expected great results. In fact, their influence upon the royal conduct was too slight to be detected. They attracted some attention of the curious, but they failed altogether of the purpose which their author had at heart.
The present interest of the Essays lies chiefly in the light which they throw upon Petty's statistical method. Economically, they are barren. The Quantulumcunque, on the other hand, is full of meat. This little tract of eight pages is one of the least known of Petty's writings, for it was never included in the collected editions of the Essays; and the reprints of it are nearly, if not quite, as scarce as the original. It takes the form of a dialogue, thirty-two questions being asked and answered about the coinage of England. It was written in August or September, 1682, when Halifax, always before his contemporaries in appreciating public needs, was already planning for the recoinage that was not carried out until 1696; and it is addressed to that far-sighted statesman. It begins by arguing that the clipped money should be recoined at full weight of the old standard, but at the cost of the holders, not of the State. If it were recoined at public cost, "men would clip their own Money; But the Owner himself must bear the loss, because he might have refused light and defective Money." The argument that recoinage at full weight will increase the export of coin to the damage of England ​is met by showing, first, that silver is exported as bullion, the number of coins to the ounce being immaterial, and, secondly, that money is exported only when the merchant can get for it abroad goods of greater value. Full weight coinage, therefore, is alone advisable; and those States that have debased their coin "are like Bankrupt Merchants, who Compound for their Debts by paying 16s. 12s. or 10s. in the pound." Interest is "a Reward for forbearing the use of your own Money for a Term of Time agreed upon, whatever need yourself may have of it in the meanwhile"; and laws limiting interest are as ill-judged as those limiting the exportation of money or the rate of exchange, "for Interest always carrieth with it an Ensurance praemium which is very casual, besides that of Forbearance." These extracts will show the quality of the pamphlet, whose published price was twopence. It was worth the money.
* ↑ Writings, i. 159-161, 219-221 (Political Anatomy), 298-301 (Political Arithmetick). Cf., T. D. Ingram's History of the Legislative Union, 11, ff.; Ball's Historical Review of the Legislative Systems in Ireland, 72. The Political Anatomy was written five years before [Thomas Sheridan's] Discourse of the Rise and Power of Parliaments, and was published seven years before Molyneaux's Case of Ireland being Bound.
* ↑ The much-experienced Sir William Temple might appear to be an exception. Temple's Observations upon the United Provinces, published in 1673, does indeed contain a chapter on "The Causes of their Fall in 1672." But Temple was impressed merely by the disasters of the Dutch at the beginning of that shameful war, and the causes that he assigns are chiefly that military unpreparedness and that lack of united martial spirit which the event showed to be less than he supposed. Of the underlying and more permanent reasons why Holland must give way to France, and France to England, Temple showed little comprehension.
* ↑ "Near" was, as the British Museum MS. of the Political Arithmetick shows, a concession to caution. It did not appear in the fair copy made by an amanuensis, but was afterwards inserted by Petty's hand. See Writings, i. 284.
* ↑ Political Arithmetick, 76, 77; Writings, i. 291.
* ↑ This argument quite harmonizes with Petty's highly-developed theory of productive and unproductive labor.
* ↑ Petty had conducted elaborate experiments to determine the cost of land carriage with different vehicles.
* ↑ Writings, i. 181; Political Anatomy of Ireland, chap. ix. This is, no doubt, the passage which Cantillon found "dans un petit Manuscrit de l'année 1685 [1672]" by Petty. But we may not conclude that Cantillon's eleventh chapter, or indeed any part of his argument, was consciously influenced by Petty's remarks, for he declares that "la recherche qu'il en a fait, en passant, n'est bisarre & éloignée des regles de la nature, que parcequ'il ne's'est pas attaché aux causes & aux principes, mais seulement aux effets." Essai sur le Commerce, p. 54.
* ↑ See Journal des sçavans, 15 Mars, 1683, Bayle's Nouvelles de la république des lettres, October, 1686, and the Leipzig Acta Eruditorum, October, 1687.
* ↑ In Massie's Observations relating to the Coin, 1760, and in A Select Collection of Scarce and Valuable Tracts on Money from the Originals of Vaughan, Cotton, Petty, Lowndes, Newton, Prior, Harris, and Others. With a preface (by J. R. McCulloch), notes, and index. London: Printed for the Political Economy Club, 1856.