# Transportation Deployment Casebook/2024/Sydney On-Demand Bus Network
## Introduction
### What is an on-demand bus?

On-demand bus series are a form of public transport which are not on dedicated routes, rather they pick the passenger up from a selected location (either home or another convenient location) and takes them to their destination. The objective of these on-demand services is to help facilitate local trips (<5 kilometers) and connect to larger transportation hubs where passengers can extend their journeys. As such, on-demand services can be thought of as a form of 'micro'-transit providing a similar utility to that of a taxi.

### Building Blocks

There are many aspects of different technology which have influenced and led to the implementation of on demand public transport. The most significant influential technologies which have contributed to on-demand buses include:
* Buses (Automobile technology) - provides the ability to travel.
* Real time information (internet of things/telecommunication) – ability to track the bus in real time and see aspects like arrival times and journey time.
* Bookings/payment technology (networks) – ability to book a service to your location and pay via an online transactions or opal card (electronic payment)
* Ride hailing – has inspired on-demand services significantly. The introduction of services such as Uber highlighted the value and desire of having more flexible options when it comes to travel.

## History
### Sydney Bus Network

Sydney's bus network has steadily developed throughout Sydney's history. Through this historic period, what constitutes a 'bus' has changed and developed over time. The following phases have been observed for the technology:
* Birthing Phase - The early implementation of a what we call today a bus, was a horse drawn carriage. The capacity of carriages differed in size, but generally did cater to more than 15 people. During this initial phase, the bus had strong completion with the streetcar and trolley bus alternatives. As such during the period between 1900 - 1920, patronage on buses remained quite stagnate with no overall growth.
* Growing Phase - The growth phase can be categorised by the implementation of motorised buses. The bus, which was once the slower and more prohibited alternative could now move much faster in more degrees of freedom then their streetcar/trolley bus competition. This motorisation was also followed by the increased paving of roads throughout Sydney, to meet the demand of private vehicles which saw a significant increase during this period. Patronage saw a significant jump in the recorded passenger volumes, going from 6.4 million annual passengers in 1920 to 50.5 million annual passengers in 1930, or a 790 per cent increase in overall patronage volume. The growing phase of the bus system continued for another 40-years, where patronage would finally reach its market saturation at 324 million annual passengers.
* Mature Phase / Decline Phase - Since the 1970s, annual patronage has remained steady hovering between 260 - 300 million annual passengers. While the patronage has not significantly dropped it should be noted that the population of Sydney has more than doubled since the 1970. Therefore, in relative terms the patronage of buses has significantly declined. While the bus network has decreased in annual patronage, the extent of the network and provision of services has increased. Sydney for much of the 1900s was a much more centrally located place, with a majority of the population located in the urban core. It was private vehicle as well as urban planning reform which saw people move outwards, which saw a further uptick in vehicle use.

### On-demand (2017 - current) ￼

On-demand bus services are relatively new to Sydney with pilot programs beginning as early as November 2017. To date, there have been a total of 12 on-demand bus programs, with five still active as of 2023. Most of these services have been congregated in 'suburban' locations, localities such as The Ponds, Edmondson Park, Carlingford, and Northern beaches. As on-demand services primary role is to provide micro-mobility, providing the general public a public transport option for local trips, it has not seen much success in its implementation in more metropolitan areas. Inner West is an exception to this as the pilot program has been running since 2018 with continued patronage. This is partly due to inner West being a large Local Government Area with much of it not serviced by either heavy or light rail and a higher portion of residents not owning cars, thus providing the potential for an on-demand service to capture a portion of the market.

## On-Demand Bus Service Lifecycle

Transport systems, like all other technological inventions, can be categorised within a lifecycle stage. The three key stages within a transport Technolgies life cycle are:
* Birthing Phase
* Growth Phase
* Mature Phase
It is to be noted that while the above is seen as the general rule across technologies, it does not apply to all technologies. Certain technologies do not progress past the birthing phase as they are never adopted, while some technologies fluctuate between growth and maturing phase going through multiple irritations of the lifecycle. In the context of transportation technologies, the lifecycle stage can be classified via the assessment of various factors including number of users, extent of the transport network and accessibility via that transportation technology.

### Data Collection

The assessment of Sydney's on-demand bus network has utilised transit patronage data spanning a period between January 2018 to the end of 2023. The following data has been provided by Transport for New South Wales (TfNSW), which details the number of passengers who barded'/alighted the bus service, excluding cancelations and no-shows. Patronage data covers all reportable services to date.
On-Demand Bus Service Patronage (2018 - 2023) :
| Service | 2018 Jan to Jun | 2018 Jul and Dec | 2019 Jan to Jun | 2019 - Jul to Dec | 2020 - Jan to Jun | 2020 - Jul to Dec | 2021 - Jan to Jun | 2021 - Jul to Dec | 2022 - Jan to Jun | 2022 - Jul to Dec | 2023 - Jan to Jun | 2023 - Jul to Dec |
| M01 - Cooee - The Ponds | - | - | - | 61149 | 37514 | 38738 | 50971 | 34225 | 62561 | 71405 | 82041 | 83277 |
| M02 - MetroConnect - Norwest | - | - | - | 15907 | 9698 | 7684 | 9837 | 3974 | 5681 | - | - | - |
| N59 - NIS On Demand | - | - | - | 31884 | 29454 | 29499 | 26488 | 21726 | 25271 | 25132 | 21516 | 23015 |
| POB - Eastern Suburbs (Pilot) | 815 | 6494 | 12686 | 8874 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| P02 - Punchbowl - Bankstown (Pilot) | 3630 | 2733 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| P03 - Keolis Downer - Northern Beaches | 11341 | 48192 | 75746 | 104565 | 74655 | 86895 | 87458 | 63419 | 82811 | 92777 | 88723 | 110573 |
| P04 - Keolis Downer - Macquarie Park (Pilot) | 4098 | 18836 | 23613 | 28048 | 12867 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| P05 - Sutherland Shire (Pilot) | 17953 | 21348 | 20252 | 15427 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| P06 - Manly / Eastern Suburbs (Pilot) | 20648 | 11940 | 6700 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| P07 - Carlingford (Pilot) | 1360 | 4183 | 4995 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| P08 - Edmondson Park | 3282 | 12075 | 13283 | 20081 | 10838 | 6139 | 7882 | 2754 | 4023 | 3636 | 3882 | 1671 |
| SBSC006 - Inner West | - | 16588 | 38880 | 41125 | 20132 | 23458 | 25685 | 11897 | 21590 | 26582 | 26444 | 26042 |
| Total | 63127 | 142389 | 196155 | 327060 | 195158 | 192413 | 208321 | 137995 | 201937 | 219532 | 222606 | 244578 |
| Yearly Total | 205,516 (in 2018) | 205,516 (in 2018) | 523,215 (in 2019) | 523,215 (in 2019) | 387,571 (in 2020) | 387,571 (in 2020) | 346,316 (in 2021) | 346,316 (in 2021) | 421,469 (in 2022) | 421,469 (in 2022) | 467,184 (in 2023) | 467,184 (in 2023) |

### Quantitative Assessment

Recorded patronage data was used to make a quantitative assessment of the life cycle of the technology via the application of a logistic function:
$S_{t}={Smax \over 1+exp(-b(t-t_{o}))}$
The purpose of this function is to create a S-curve to represent the three key phases in within a transport technologies lifecycle, where:
* $S_{t}$ = Status measure (patronage volumes)
* $Smax$ = Saturation status level (maximum market share)
* $t$ = Time (in years)
* $t_{o}$ = Midpoint (infliction point)
* $-b$ = Coefficient (b is estimated through a simple linear regression model)

### Estimating S-max

While the technology of buses is well established with networks operating throughout Sydney's modern history, the introduction of on-demand buses is relatively new with services official recorded services popping up around 2017. As a result of the technology being in its infancy, in order to assess its lifecycle, a number of educated assumptions will need to be made in order to capture an approximate maximum market share (S-max) for the technology.
To calculate S-max, the following assumptions have been made:
* Extension of services - at market saturation it is assumed that every Local Government Area will have at a minimum of one service. Larger LGA's such has Hawkesbury, Penrith, and Canterbury - Bankstown will have multiple services.
* Mode Shift - It is expected that a number of existing bus users and taxi/car hailing services switch to on-demand bus services. On-demand services are in a great position to compete with taxi and car hailing services for pre-planned trips, as they provide a similar service for a fraction of the cost. Where on-demand services are limited are for spontaneous trips or trips which need to be made urgently. Similarly, on-demand patronage has recovered better proportionally to regular bus services, indicating that there are less bus trips being made when compared to on-demand services.
* Population - It is expected that Sydney's total population grows.
* Suburbanisation - While Sydney has plans for densification it is assumed that Sydney continues to grow outwards, creating suburbs such as Marsden Park and Jordan Springs. As these areas are difficult to support by rail and bus patronage may not be economical for frequent bus routes, on-demand services are particularly convenient to service such areas. Target demographic groups within these areas include elderly, tertiary students, users with mobility issues, and in general the population which does not drive.
A base trip rate has been calculated for the different urban environments. The trip rate has been calculated by using patronage data and the existing population (Trip Rate = service patronage / population of service area)
Base trip rate :
| Urban environment | Trip Rate (per person per year) |
| Metropolitan Core | 0.44 |
| Suburbs | 3.6 |
The trip rate assuming an uptick of demand as people move from regular buses services and taxi/car hailing services:
S-max trip rate (increased mode share scenario) :
| Urban environment | Trip Rate (per person per year) |
| Metropolitan Core | 0.7 |
| Suburbs | 5.3 |
2036 population has been taken as the future population scenario as it is expected that by 2036 every LGA has an on-demand service running. 2036 populations are based on future projections data taken from the Department for Planning and Environment (DPEs) Travel Zone Projections 2022. On demand patronage for each urban environment category has been calculated by the following:
On demand Patronage = Trip rate * 2036 population
| Urban environment | 2036 Population | On-demand Patronage |
| Metropolitan Core | 2,082,690 | 1,457,833 |
| Suburbs | 4,499,018 | 23,844,795 |
| S-max | ~ 25,300,000 | ~ 25,300,000 |

### Results

Based off the quantitative methodology, the following forecasted values were produced:
Quantitative Assessment Results :
| Year | Patronage | Forecasted Patronage | Variance in Forecast |
| 2018 | 205516 | 300137 | + 46% |
| 2019 | 523215 | 329852 | - 61% |
| 2020 | 387571 | 362026 | - 7% |
| 2021 | 346316 | 396763 | + 14% |
| 2022 | 421469 | 434157 | + 3% |
| 2023 | 467184 | 474281 | - 7% |
Coefficient :
| Term | Value |
| S-max | 25,000,000 |
| To | 2036.442513 |
| -b | 0.108006569 |
| c-Intercept | -219.949169 |
| RSQ | 0.282569121 |

#### Assessment Critique

As the R-squared value equaled 0.283, the model is not considered a statistically accurate representation. The low R-squared value is as a result of:
* Sample Size - There was only 6 years of patronage data available for on-demand buses as they are a new service.
* Variance - 2 data points, years 2020 and 2021, were significantly impacted by covid which introduced a significant decrease in patronage. This variance does not match up with the upward projection of patronage and thus has had an impact on decreasing the reliability of the model.
Furthermore, another issue regarding the model was the estimation of S-max. While the methodology was built of educated assumptions and projections, the market size for on-demand buses is difficult to estimate. In the future the following could be done for a better estimation of S-max:
* A better disaggregation of metropolitan core / suburbs classification
* A case-study on the introduction of on-demand buses and to what effect have they caused mode shifts
* A review of taxi/car hailing trips to better understand their utilisation and whether these trips could be converted to on-demand bus trips
It should be noted that as the technology is in its infancy (early life stage of a technology), it's expected that there will be a lot of unknowns surrounding the technology and its development.

## References

"On-Demand Patronage - Dataset". TfNSW. Retrieved 2024-03-06.
"Population Projections". TfNSW. Retrieved 2024-03-06.
"Long-term trends in urban public transport". BITRE. Retrieved 2024-03-07.
"World Population Prospects". United Nations. Retrieved 2024-03-07. Ashton, Paul, (December 2008). Suburban Sydney. Sydney Journal. Retrieved 2024-03-07.