# Transportation Deployment Casebook/2023/China railway
## The railway introduction

Nowadays, Chinese railways operate the largest high-speed railway system in the world and use cutting-edge high-speed train technology, such as the CRH series of rolling stock trains, which have a top speed of more than 350 km/h. The majority of China's railway lines are electrified, which increases train efficiency and lowers pollution. On Chinese railways, the electrification rate has surpassed 80%. Chinese railway signal and communication technology has undergone continuous improvement, and cutting-edge digital communication technology has been implemented to enable real-time communication between trains and dispatching command centers, ensuring the efficiency and safety of railway transportation.
Chinese rail is superior to other forms of transportation in a number of ways. One of its key advantages is speed, which enables passengers to go between locations swiftly and safely. Further, it has a remarkable safety record and is a dependable and safe method of transportation. When compared to other forms of transportation like the air and road, the rail system can carry a sizable number of passengers while also being ecologically benign and energy efficient. The backbone of China's transportation infrastructure, China is the principal market for Chinese railways. Via the Belt and Road Initiative, a significant infrastructure project intended to link China with other nations in Asia, Africa, and Europe, it also serves worldwide markets. As an illustration, the CRH series of rolling stock trains have used cutting-edge lightweight materials, innovative braking systems, and energy recovery technologies to enhance train safety and energy usage efficiency. To ensure the smooth and safe operation of trains as well as to increase the stability of train operating speed, Chinese railways employ high-precision track technology.

## The transportation mode before railway

Before Chinese railways were built, the major forms of transportation in China were waterways, horse-drawn carriages, camels, rickshaws, sedan chairs, bicycles, etc. There were also more basic light rail systems like rickshaw tracks and steam car tracks. These forms of transportation have a number of drawbacks, including sluggish speeds, low carrying capacities, poor safety, short travel distances, and restrictions according to the seasons and the weather. Due to the geography of China, a large amount of goods needed to be transported over long distances, and it was extremely inefficient to rely only on manpower or horse-drawn carts for large volumes of materials such as coal. China's coal fields were very unevenly distributed, especially between the north and the south, which was necessary for the establishment of railroads as a long transport mode of transportation. The need for transportation is rising quickly, and the market has been enhanced and extended as a result of China's fast industrialization and urbanization. People are interested in new transportation technologies and modes in this situation, particularly those that may boost transportation's speed, capacity, and efficiency.

## The invention of railway

The Tangxu Railway, suggested by Li Hongzhang and built independently by the Chinese, began in 1876 and was inaugurated in 1888. Prior to being powered by steam, the railway was first pulled by horses and mules. The railway had a total length of 9.7 kilometers and had a rail spacing of 1435 millimeters. Subsequently, in 1909, Zhan Tianyou, a railway engineer, invented the herringbone railway as a solution to the height between Nankou and Badaling. The Chinese completed every step autonomously, including the design and construction.
The development of Chinese railways may be dated to the late 19th and early 20th century, when American and European railway building, and operation technology were adopted. Several various technological specialties, including mechanical engineering, civil engineering, electrical engineering, signal engineering, and communications engineering, were used to introduce train technology in China. The physical infrastructure, such as train tracks, tunnels, bridges, and stations, is designed and constructed by civil engineers. Locomotives and other rolling equipment are designed and constructed by mechanical engineers. Signaling and communication systems were created and constructed by electrical engineers. The routes, timetables, and logistics of the railway were planned by transportation engineers. The fast expansion of China's railways was made possible by the integration of these technological skills.
In order to improve passenger transportation between China's main cities, the creation of Personal Dedicated Line started in the 1990s. The railways didn't utilize slab tracks previous to this. Due to its fast operation and high availability potential, slab track systems are drawing more and more interest for PDL architectures. Yet up until 2006, only short-distance tunnels or bridges utilize slab track in China. Just three slab track system types—prefabricated slab systems, integrated systems, and elastically mounted double-block sleeper systems—have been taken into consideration for practical implementation. On the Qinshen railway line, slab rails were used on the lengthy bridge for the first time in 1999. (Between Qinhuangdao and Shenyang). At a length of 404 kilometers, the line was completed and opened in 2003. The first freshly constructed high-speed railway line in China, this is an electrified double-track railway with a top speed of 200 km/h. The Chinese MOR has been transferring Slab track technology and know-how from Germany and Japan since 2005 to hasten PDL development. Two Chinese railway track types, CRTS I and CRTS II, were created as a result of the transfer of four slab track systems with two base forms (prefabricated slab tracks and bi-block sleeper tracks)

## Early market development

The early market dates back to the Qing Dynasty before 1911. The first railway in China was built by the British in 1879, and the Chinese government built its own railway in 1881. At the start of the Second Sino-Japanese War between 1937 and 1945, most of the new lines were built in the Japanese-occupied northeast. The ensuing Chinese civil war from 1945 to 1949 led to delays in the construction of new railways and the destruction of many railways. After the founding of New China in 1949, the central government established planning standards for railway construction, emphasizing national integration by expanding the railway system. The first five-year plan was carried out from 1953 to 1957, and railways were mainly built in the northwest and southwest. From 1964 to 1978, more railroads were built in the Northwest and Southwest, areas safe from foreign invasion, known as the "Third Front of Defense". Between 1966 and 1976, due to the slow development of railways in China during the Cultural Revolution, only 8,500 kilometers of new lines were added.The focus of national transportation investment has shifted to the eastern coastal areas, and the development of railways has shifted from building new lines to increasing the capacity of existing lines in the north and east at the commencement of economic reform and open policy, that is, in 1978. In the mid-1980s, due to unbalanced regional development, the railway focused on the expansion and electrification of existing lines in shoreline areas, while the sources of railway funding became more diversified. China's railway network matured after the mid-1990s. The focus of railway development was to build new lines and upgrade existing lines in the western, northeastern, and central regions, thereby reducing regional inequality.

## The birthing phase

At birthing phrase, China relied heavily on railways for freight and long-distance transportation. The development of railways is an important core for the formation of China's transportation hubs and economic belts and the development of urban systems. After the defeat in the Sino-Japanese War of 1894-1895, the Qing government ceded land and paid compensation, the invaders took the opportunity to put pressure on it, swayed China's railway rights and interests, and forcibly built them. According to their own needs, they designed and built a batch of railways respectively. The standards were different, and the equipment was messy, which caused the chaos and backwardness of China's railways in the early stage. Therefore, after the founding of New China in 1949, the government formulated policies for the integration of the railway system and standards for railway construction planning. These policies were ingrained in the birthing phrase of the railway and continued to shape China's railway system for decades to come. The policy of making railway development a national strategic priority is still in effect.
In addition to the railways operated by the central government at the time, there was a small network of state-owned local railways linking mines, farms, factories, and forest areas. The central government encourages the construction of these smaller railways, while the national railway system provides technical assistance when smaller railways can stimulate regional economic development.

## The growth phase

From a historical perspective, the first "Five-Year Plan" policy's implementation era may have marked the start of China's railways' growth phase. The government placed a major emphasis on the development of the transportation system between 1953 and 1957, and more than 60% of infrastructural development RMB 901.5 million—went towards building railways. The trend chart readily demonstrates the tremendous rise throughout this time. Since then, the government's position has evolved, placing a higher focus on national security while developing railways. National security was increasingly crucial as a result of China cutting off diplomatic ties with the Soviet Union and the United States' involvement in the Vietnam War in the early 1960s.
According to the policy, line growth is mostly centered on "third-line development" areas, which include western mountainous Sichuan, Guizhou, and southern Shanxi provinces, as well as Henan, Hubei, and western Hunan provinces. The central government adopted the strategy of directing the development of the eastern coastal areas in the middle of the 1980s and moved the focus of railway expansion to promote economic growth. As another example, the Sanshui-Maoming railway was jointly constructed by local governments, foreign finance, and loans from international organizations. Hence, policies such as resource development, economic development, and national security play important roles in helping the rapid advancement of China's railways.

## The mature phase

The mature stage of China's railways began after the 1990s. This stage is called the "corridor construction stage", and the main purpose is to strengthen the railway corridor. At this stage, the central government adopts a balanced development strategy to narrow regional gaps, focusing on areas with underdeveloped railways such as the west, northeast and central regions. During this process, China's railways developed rapidly, and railway construction opened a new era.
Moreover, since 2000, the Chinese government has vigorously promoted the construction of high-speed railways. The purpose of this initiative is to improve the speed and efficiency of the railway, support economic development and strengthen the connection between regions. In the following decades, China's high-speed rail network developed and expanded rapidly, becoming the largest high-speed rail network in the world. Up to now, China's railways have entered a mature stage, and the railway network has become completer and more efficient. As a result, market competition has become more intense, and aviation and automobiles have become popular modes of transportation. In order to adapt to the market, the railway system also focuses on improving efficiency and improving service quality to give passengers a better experience.
While adapting to the market, it is also limited by the lock-in effect of infrastructure and technology, because a large amount of capital has been invested in existing technology and infrastructure, which has added obstacles to re-innovation and the development of more efficient modes of transportation. Still, Chinese railways can be reinvented and built on new technologies like high-speed rail and maglev trains to become more efficient modes of transportation. At the same time, the innovative technology can also reduce the environmental pollution caused by the use of fuels, reduce energy consumption and emissions, so as to achieve sustainable development of future transportation.

## Quantitative analysis
### Formula presentation

In order to plot the S-curve, the original data (passenger traffic) of China's railways from 1949 to 2021 were selected. by formula $St=Smax/[1+exp(-b(t-ti)]$
$St$ stands for passenger traffic
$t$ stands for year (1949-2021)
$ti$ is the year that $1/2Smax$ can achieve,
$Smax$ is $K$, which represents the saturation level and is the maximum passenger volume.
The setting of the $K$ value is to find the maximum value of the actual data and then add 10,000 to finally become 370,000, 380,000, 390,000 and so on.
$b$ is the slope,
In order to determine b and c it is also necessary to adopt the formulas，$Y=bX+c$ , $Y=\ln(passenger/K-passenger)$, $X$ represents year
Through the formula, Calculate the values for each year and compare them. After that, determine K the value (Smax) by comparing the R square to find the largest R square. It can be seen from the data that when is 580000, the R square is the largest.
| K | 560000 | 570000 | 580000 |
| Intercept(c) | -82.45692 | -82.09485 | -81.75231 |
| b | 0.040693 | 0.040499 | 0.040315 |
| RSQ | 0.854214 | 0.854768 | 0.855263 |
Regression Statistics :
| Multiple R | 0.924804 |
| R Square | 0.855263 |
| Adjusted R Square | 0.853224 |
| Standard Error | 0.354351 |
| Observations | 73 |

## Interpretation of result

The graph indicates that the S-curve and the real data curve have an appropriate fusion. From around 1949 to 1957, when the People's Republic of China was just established, the main task was to manage the country's railway capital construction, and the curve was relatively stable. Over the ensuing decades, railroad construction grew steadily.
It can be seen from the chart that the trend of the curve is rising slowly, which may be the reason for the slow growth of passenger traffic due to economic downturn and other reasons. After 2003, due to the technological upgrading and innovation of China's railways, railway construction has reached a mature stage, and passenger traffic has also grown rapidly, exceeding the expectations of the S-curve. According to the model, half of Smax will be reached in 2027. Therefore, passenger traffic may continue to grow, but in 2020 and 2021, due to the impact of covid 19, passenger traffic will drop off a cliff, so the S-curve will not fit perfectly. China's traffic continues to grow, so the recession is not demonstrated in the graph.

## References

* ↑ How China's high-speed rail network got built so fast | CNN
* ↑ Boten–Vientiane railway - Wikipedia
* ↑ https://www.flickr.com/photos/adavey/5097354857/
* ↑ https://www.britannica.com/place/China/Railways
* ↑ China Railway History, China’s First Self-Constructed Railway (chinatravel.com)
* ↑ https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/30901823
* ↑ https://www.globalrailwayreview.com/article/5039/the-development-of-high-speed-railways-in-china-and-its-impact-on-the-chinese-economy/
* 1 2 3 4 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2009.07.003
* ↑ https://www.britannica.com/place/China/Railways