# Transportation Deployment Casebook/2023/Hong Kong MTR
## 1.   Introduction

The MTR is a domestic railway system operating in Hong Kong consisting of nine local railway lines, Airport Express line and Guangzhou-Shenzhen- Hong Kong Express Rail Link. These lines connect Hong Kong Island, Kowloon, and the New Territories. Hong Kong’s MTR also consists of light rail networks connecting the communities in the New Territories such as Tuen Mun and Yuen Long. The total length of the overall routes is approximately 271 kilometres and is the backbone of the public transport system in Hong Kong as it accounts for 41% of the trips out of all forms of public transport. The first MTR line from Shek Kip Mei to Kwun Tong opened on the 1st of October 1979 and was a 15-kilometre-long line that consisted of nine stations. The primary reason for the introduction of the MTR was to help solve and relieve the severe traffic and congestion problems within Hong Kong, the main market for the MTR is the Hong Kong commuters, allowing for quicker and more accessible travel around Hong Kong. The main advantages of the MTR in Hong Kong since its introduction is it allows for quicker and more accessible travel around Hong Kong, furthermore it has also helped to reduce traffic flow around Hong Kong.

## 2. Pre-Existing Modes of Transport
### 2.1 Existing Modes of Transport

Before the introduction of Hong Kong’s MTR on the 1st of October 1979 there were many alternative and existing forms of transport within Hong Kong such as the basic forms of transportation such rickshaws and sedans, until 1888 when the Peak Tram line in Central was introduced, the Peak Tram line which is a 7-minute ride running from Garden Road Station to Peak Tower on the Hill Side of the Peak. In 1904 Street Trams better known as the “Ding Ding '' was introduced and started off with a single track located on Hong Kong Island running from Kennedy Town to Causeway Bay, street trams would later expand by adding more additional lines making Hong Kong more accessible by trams. In the 1920s private companies began operating public bus routes. After the war, the local demand for bus services exponentially increased due to the population boom, in 1960 double-decker buses were introduced to help carry more commuters and meet the demand of the rising population. There are varying opinions but it is believed that taxis were introduced to Hong Kong around 1920-1950s, due to the post-war shortage of public transport in 1960, there was a rise in illegal unlicensed taxis operating outside of government regulations. In 1969 the minibus was introduced to Hong Kong and instantly became popular as many “red plate” taxi drivers and passengers ended up switching to minibuses.

### 2.2 Limitation of Existing of Mode

Before the opening of the first MTR line in 1979, Hong Kong was experiencing severe traffic congestion due to the rapid increase in population and the increased need to travel. The Rickshaws and sedan limitation was that it was very slow in terms of speed and very limited in terms of distance travelled as a man would be pulling a rickshaw, in addition, the rickshaw was very limited in terms of space as it could at max carry two people. The introduction of trams allowed for quicker and easier travel in Hong Kong, this is because trams can carry a large number of passengers from one place to another, sparking interest in mass transport for the commuter in Hong Kong. However, many positives came with the introduction of trams. There were limitations. The main limitation of trams is accessibility because existing tram lines only exist on Hong Kong Island and not Kowloon which affected the accessibility of the mode for the population in Kowloon. Furthermore, trams are also affected by traffic and congestion as trams run on tracks along the main roads of the city hence trams must wait for any possible obstacles such as cars and buses. Buses, minibuses, and taxis are also affected by the traffic and congestion problems that plague Hong Kong, since they must wait for the obstacles such as other vehicles to move. Also due to the large number of people travelling in small areas and narrow streets to get to and from home and work, there is limited space for roads generating congestion.

## 3. Development of the MTR
### 3.1 Innovation

After nearly twenty years of consultations between the Hong Kong government and transport consultants, the MTR was developed to counteract Hong Kong’s growing traffic and congestion problems. The MTR was designed to provide off-street, efficient mass transport through urban areas. The first batch of MTR trains known as the M-Stock trains now named the CM-Stock trains were electric-powered trains from Metro Cammell and were used on the modified initial system (initial route from Admiralty to Kwun Tong). Along with the first MTR trains, a central control room was established at Kowloon Bay Depot to manage the operations of the first MTR. In 1982 the T-Stock trains now known as the CT-Stock trains were introduced, later as more lines were introduced in the 1980s the central control room was expanded to manage lines such as Tsuen Wan and Island lines.

### 3.2 Early Market Development

In the early developmental stages of MTR, the primary market of the MTR was identified to be the Hong Kong commuter. The initial line (Modified Initial System) was designed to reflect and predict the changes in the general population and growing residential areas. After the initial launch of the first MTR line Shek Kip Mei to Kwun Tong, months later the line was extended to Tsim Sha Tsui and later on 12th February 1980 the initial line was then extended to Admiralty across Victoria Harbour was opened. The opening of these new lines allowed for quicker and easier travel around Kowloon and Hong Kong Island. The first MTR line featured a Central Control Room located in Kowloon Bay to help manage signals and communication.

### 3.3 Functional improvement

Functional improvements were made to the MTR to improve the experience, efficiency and ride for passengers. As more lines and routes were slowly introduced into the systems the trains and control centres were slowly upgraded. As previously stated, when the MTR opened in 1979 the Central Control Room located in Kowloon Bay and was later expanded to manage lines such as Kwun Tong, Tsuen Wan and Island lines these control rooms were manned with a chief controller overseeing all lines, line controller in charge of decision making and communications and a train service regulator responsible for signalling systems. In the 1980s when the Kowloon Canton Railway (KCR) was upgraded and electrified, allowing for public train travel in the Northern areas of Hong Kong, with the modernisation of the Kowloon Canton Railway a signal room was opened at Hung Hom to manage the trains in the northern regions of Hong Kong. In 1994 the Kowloon Canton Railway control room was moved to Fo Tan, during this time from 1995 to 1998 the MTR upgraded to a computerised control system that brought more operation efficiency with a mimic display panel that would allow all actors to view incidents and train positions and two traffic controllers share control of a line which allowed for better management of incidents. In the 1990s when the Lantau Airport Railway project was started the control room at Kowloon Bay was at max capacity and it was decided to build a new control room at Tsing Yi station and was designed to incorporate existing and future lines. In 2007 when the MTR and KCR merged, a decision was made to have one single control room at the Tsing Yi control room. In 2012 there was a 117 million Hong Kong dollar upgrade of the control centre.

### 3.4 Policy in the birthing phase

Since the beginning of the MTR, the Hong Kong government have implemented policies to help the growth of the MTR as well as help to integrate the MTR into Hong Kong. When the MTR began operations in 1979 the Hong Kong government implemented a policy that curbed bus competition, the way the policy worked was it stated that half of the newly introduced bus routes could run parallel to the MTR routes, but the bus fares must be comparable to the MTR fares by doing this it provided incentive people to choose the new MTR over buses, helping the MTR slowly integrate into Hong Kong. In addition, the policy also stated that no bus routes from New Territories could go to Tsim Sha Tsui or cross the harbour to Hong Kong Island. Implementing these policies during the start of the MTR, it helped reduce traffic flow and allowed for more efficient allocation of resources such as buses, in addition, it allowed the MTR to smoothly integrate the MTR into Hong Kong’s transit system.

## 4. Growth and Maturity of the MTR
### 4.1 Growth of MTR

As the MTR continued to grow in the 1990s, policies began to change to match the growth of the MTR. With new lines such as the Airport Express line and the Tung Chung Line, Hong Kong adapted to the new demands and exponential growth in ridership. In the 1990s Hong Kong’s new transport policies focused more on healthy competition between modes of transport by applying an inter-modal coordination policy, developing a balanced transport network with buses and rail at the core, improving transport infrastructure, expanding, and upgrading service-revolving around public transport and managing road usage. In the 1994s Hong Kong’s transport policy also had a focus on expanding railway infrastructure to help improve the mobility of the population. With the help of the rail-favoured transport policies, it helped the MTR and the rapid addition of new lines from 1984 to 1994 there was an increase of approximately 9% in average annual growth in rail car-km and ridership.

### 4.2 Expansion and improvements MTR network

After the initial launch of the first MTR line the Modified Initial System and the extension Tsim Sha Tsui, the network would later be expanded and is still expanding to meet the population demands of Hong Kong and would change from 6 cars to 8 cars in the 1990s. In 1982 Tsuen Line was opened and would later undergo extensions in 1985 (Admiralty to Chai Wan) and in 1991 (Lai King to Mei Foo). Between 1880 and 1990 3 new lines would be added to the MTR. Between 1991 to 2019 nine new lines were added to the MTR, which included Disneyland Resort Line and the Shatin to Central Link line. Along with these expansions new trains were introduced and refurbished old trains, and new trains such as Adtranz-CAF A-Stock from Europe, Rotem K-Stock from Korea and the CNR Changchun C-Stock from China were implemented on these new lines. These changes to the trains provide a quicker and nicer train experience while travelling on the MTR and improve rider experience.

### 4.3 Mature Phase of MTR

The MTR entered the mature phase in 2019 before COVID-19 and the Hong Kong protest. The ridership was gradually increasing annually until it reached the peak of 6.8 billion passengers in 2019 before declining to 3.6 billion the following year in 2020. From there onward, the data indicates that the ridership is continuing to decline; this can be attributed to the main factors of the COVID-19 pandemic causing city-wide lockdowns and limiting travel around Hong Kong. In addition, the Hong Kong Riots forced people to stop using MTR as many stations were damaged during the riots forcing closures of stations. To combat the loss in ridership and the impact of the pandemic on the economy the MTR has decided to make changes in the fare concessions policies with a fare reduction of 1.85% and a 5% rebate for every trip from April 1st, 2021, to June 26th, 2021. Furthermore, there was a reduction in prices to the MTR City Saver and Monthly Pass Extra.

## 5. Life Cycle Analysis
### 5.1 S-Curve

The MTR life cycle was visualised and modelled using ridership data of the MTR from 1979 to 2021 to determine the birthing, growth and maturity phases of the Hong Kong MTR. The data used was gathered from Chatgpt which sourced the data from the official MTR website, Hong Kong Annual Digest of Statistics, Hong Kong Yearbook and South China Morning Post. The data from years 1986-1989 was estimated by Chatgp, as such the data provided by Chatgpt is not entirely accurate, so the most realistic set of data provided by Chatgpt was used in the analysis of the Hong Kong MTR. In addition, data from after 2019 was removed from the analysis of the model as it is affected by the external factor of COVID-19 which caused lockdowns within Hong Kong impacting the population's ability to travel.
The following model was graphed in excel using equation 1.
S(t) = K/[1+exp(-b(t-t$_i$)]
Equation 1
Where:
* S(t): represents the status measured (ridership)
* t: time in years
* t$_i$: inflexion time (years in which ½ S$_{max}$ (k) is achieved)
* K: Saturation status level
* b: coefficient to be estimated
Find estimation of ridership, the single variable of linear regression estimates the coefficients c and b in model form equation 2:
Y=bX+c
Equation 2
* Y: ln(Passengers/(S$_{max}$(k)-Passengers)
* X: Years
Different values of K were tested and analysed to find the maximum value of R$^2$ closest to 1. This was achieved by using the single variable linear regression for each year under the corresponding K value. RSQ function was used to calculate the R$^2$, if the R$^2$ value is closest to 1 out of the K values tested, the INTERCEPT and SLOPE functions were used to find the values of b and c. These coefficients were then subbed back in the three-parameter logistics equation to find t$_i$ and find predicted passengers (ridership).

## 6. Results and Discussion

| Years | Passengers (Millions) | Predicted (Millions) |
| 1979 | 28.8 | 71 |
| 1980 | 41.6 | 78 |
| 1981 | 55.4 | 86 |
| 1982 | 75.7 | 95 |
| 1983 | 96.3 | 105 |
| 1984 | 122.2 | 116 |
| 1985 | 149.5 | 128 |
| 1986 | 174.2 | 142 |
| 1987 | 196.9 | 156 |
| 1988 | 221.6 | 172 |
| 1989 | 246.3 | 190 |
| 1990 | 269.9 | 209 |
| 1991 | 293.6 | 229 |
| 1992 | 317.3 | 252 |
| 1993 | 335.9 | 276 |
| 1994 | 367.8 | 303 |
| 1995 | 406.6 | 332 |
| 1996 | 452.8 | 363 |
| 1997 | 480.9 | 397 |
| 1998 | 501.4 | 433 |
| 1999 | 528.6 | 471 |
| 2000 | 562.5 | 513 |
| 2001 | 599.2 | 557 |
| 2002 | 646.8 | 603 |
| 2003 | 687.5 | 653 |
| 2004 | 726.8 | 704 |
| 2005 | 760.9 | 759 |
| 2006 | 794.7 | 816 |
| 2007 | 845 | 875 |
| 2008 | 849.6 | 936 |
| 2009 | 825.4 | 999 |
| 2010 | 921.4 | 1063 |
| 2011 | 1039.5 | 1129 |
| 2012 | 1100.7 | 1195 |
| 2013 | 1136.6 | 1262 |
| 2014 | 1182.6 | 1330 |
| 2015 | 1285.7 | 1397 |
| 2016 | 1389.3 | 1463 |
| 2017 | 1460.6 | 1529 |
| 2018 | 1681.1 | 1594 |
| 2019 | 1712.2 | 1657 |
The results indicated in Figure 1, show that between 1979-1984 is the birthing phase of the MTR, while 1985-2008 is the growth phase of the MTR and the maturity phase is indicated to be in 2019 as the ridership peaks at 1.7 billion. Furthermore, Figure 1 shows that there is a slight correlation in the predicted ridership and ridership data in 2005 while the other years predicted and actual passengers are off by millions at certain years. The model also indicates a decrease in ridership compared to projected ridership from 2008-2017 and a sudden increase in ridership from 2018-2019 when the curve reaches maximum saturation of passengers at 1.7 billion.
Although there is a slight correlation in the year of 2005, the predicted data and the actual data of the analysed S-shaped curve does not accurately portray or predict the ridership data as the ridership data is different from the predicted passenger data by millions, the data used for the years 1986-1989 were an estimate affecting the reliability of the data. In addition, the graph's data in the early and late 2010s is below the predicted values until 2018. The decline in passengers compared to the predicted passengers could be influenced by external factors such as Global Finance Crisis which severely affected Hong Kong causing some job losses and increases in cost of living possibly affecting the usage of Hong Kong MTR, which the predicted passengers model cannot account for as it assumes growth and does not take into account external factors. Overall, the model generated from the data does not accurately illustrate the trends and life cycle of the MTR and further research, and better data collection is needed to create a more accurate model. Another reason why this graph is inaccurate is because Chatgpt provides multiple sources of data and continuously changes the data, for that reason the most accurate set provided from Chatgpt was chosen for the analysis and because the MTR provides vague estimates of annual ridership or is missing data from early periods of operation .
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