# Transportation Deployment Casebook/2024/Ningpo Metro
## Introduction
### Metro

After the London Underground, the first metro railway, came into service in 1863, many of the world's major cities have constructed their own underground systems. In 2015, nearly 160 cities around the world had metro systems, forty per cent of which were built in the 21st century.

### Urban transport in Ningpo

As one of the most populated and developed cities in Chekiang Province, Ningpo, with its permanent population of nearly 10 million (2023), attaches great importance to the system of urban transport. Currently, Ningpo has a relatively convenient and mature urban transport system, including bus and metro networks. According to "2022 China Urban Transport Report" released by Baidu Maps, the average walking distance for public transport trips in Ningpo was 791m, the walking distance between the two ends of the connection was 728m, and the walking distance between metro and bus interchange was 330m. These statistics are ranked in the top ten in the 100 main cities of China, which means that when people use public transport modes to travel in Ningpo, they are able to transfer easily in most cases and do not need to walk long distances.

### Overview of Ningpo Metro

The first metro system in China was the Peking Subway, which was approved in 1965 and began operation in 1969. In 2019, four decades after the first metro system opened in Peking, China has 37 cities with metro systems totalling 5,180.6 kilometres.
The metro was firstly proposed in 2003 by the government. The construction of Line 1 started in June 2009, and was put into operation in 2014. By 2022, Ningpo Rail Transit already has five lines in operation with a total length of about 180 km.
The trains used in the Ningbo Metro system are all CRRC Zhuzhou Locomotive designed Type B metro trains. The body is made of aluminium alloy, has a crash cushioning design and uses LED lighting to reduce energy consumption. The latest trains on Line 5 have Fully-Automatic Unattended Train Operation (UTO) capability.

## History and development of Ningpo Metro
### Beginning

Since 2003, Ningpo had accomplished a series of plans of rail transit, mainly the metro, and submitted the plan of construction to the state authorities in 2005. In 2006, Ningpo's rail transit construction plan was reviewed and feasibly evaluated in terms of the programme and technical standards. According to the initial plan, the two lines would be completed by 2015, with a total length of 72.1 kilometres and 45 stations.
In 2014, the first phase of Line 1, the construction of which began in 2009, became operational, while the second phase began in 2012 and was completed four years later. Construction of the first phase of Line 2, which forms a cross with Line 1, began at the end of 2010, and the 28.5km line connects to the airport, opening in 2015.

### Development

In 2011, Ningpo put forward the second round of rail transit construction plan, planning to complete the second phase of Line 2 and build Line 3, Line 4 and the first phase of Line 5 between 2013 and 2020, forming a transport network covering six major urban areas of the city. What is noteworthy in the second round of rail transport construction is the change in the finance source, with the municipal government signing an agreement with the financial themes (local governments) under the jurisdiction of Ningpo, whereby the municipal government takes the lead, and the local government also contributes funds to participate in the construction at the same time. Under the plan, by 2020, a rail network with a total length of nearly 250 kilometres would be in operation.
By the end of 2021, when the first phase of Line 5 was commissioned, the target for the second round of construction had been reached, and the city had a total of 183 kilometres of rail transit.
Currently, the Ningpo rail transit system is under construction according to the third phase of the programme. The third round was approved by the State Council in December 2020. The plan, which covers the period from 2021 to 2026, includes Lines 6, 7, 8, and the extension of two already existing lines, Line 1 and Line 4, with a total length of 106.5 kilometres and a planned investment of RMB 87.59 billion.

### Market

Funding for the construction of the Ningpo Metro came mainly from the government's public coffers, with the municipal government contributing assets in the early stages and the local government providing a portion of the funding from the second round of construction onwards. In view of the background of greater pressure on government finances, the city government has also asked the relevant authorities to make use of market financing in addition to playing the role of the government's public finances.

### Advantage

The five lines of the 180-kilometre-long Ningpo Metro basically cover the city's central urban area and connect business districts, train stations, airports and university towns, which to a large extent facilitates people's travel and eases traffic pressure.
In terms of promoting tourism, Ningpo Metro not only makes it easier for tourists to travel to various tourist attractions, but the metro itself, as a cultural symbol of the city, can also arouse tourists' interest and love for the city through the metro Logo, which symbolises the city's culture, and the cultural decorations in the metro and metro stations.

## Quantitative life-cycle analysis of Ningpo Metro
### Data collection

Annual passenger volume from 2015 to 2022 (The first line was launched in May 2014, so this year's data will not be included in the analysis) is obtained from the website of China Association Metro, where the association publishes the annual reports:
Actual annual passenger volume of Ningpo Metro 2015 - 2022 :
| Year | Actual Passengers |
| 2015 | 37,760,000 |
| 2016 | 99,681,000 |
| 2017 | 112,334,000 |
| 2018 | 124,371,000 |
| 2019 | 167,318,000 |
| 2020 | 159,860,000 |
| 2021 | 258,536,000 |
| 2022 | 256,562,800 |
An S-curve can be used to model the life cycle of Ningpo Metro. A three-parameter logistic function is used:
$S(t)=Smax/[1+exp(-b(t-ti)]$
where:
* S(t) is the status measure,
* t is time (in years),
* ti is the inflection time (year in which 1/2 Smax is achieved),
* Smax is saturation status level,
* b is a coefficient
| Year | Actual Passengers | Predicted Passengers |
| 2015 | 37,760,000 | 20000000 |
| 2016 | 99,681,000 | 89314718 |
| 2017 | 112,334,000 | 129861228 |
| 2018 | 124,371,000 | 158629436 |
| 2019 | 167,318,000 | 180943791 |
| 2020 | 159,860,000 | 199175946 |
| 2021 | 258,536,000 | 214591014 |
| 2022 | 256,562,800 | 227944154 |
* R² = 0.8432

## References

* ↑ UITP (2015). "World Metro Figures: statistics brief". UITP Advancing Public Transport: 1–6.
* ↑ Zhejiang Provincial Bureau of Statistics (2023-02-22). "2022年浙江省人口主要数据公报" [Bulletin of key data on the population of Chekiang Province in 2022]. Retrieved 2024-03-03.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
* ↑ Baidu Maps (2022). "2022年度中国城市交通报告" [2022 China Urban Transport Report]. Retrieved 2024-03-03.
* ↑ "Beijing's Metro, Beijing Subway Development". Railway Technology. 2014-03-15. Retrieved 2024-03-03.
* ↑ Lin, Dong; Nelson, John D.; Beecroft, Mark; Cui, Jianqiang (2021). "An overview of recent developments in China's metro systems". Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology. 111. doi:10.1016/j.tust.2020.103783. ISSN 0886-7798.
* 1 2 3 4 Ningbo Daily (2006-11-29). "宁波市"十"字轨道交通将在2015年建成". 宁波网. Retrieved 2024-03-03.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
* ↑ 中国宁波网 (2009-06-27). "宁波轨道交通１号线一期工程开工" [Phase I of Ningpo Rail Transit Line 1 Project Begins]. Retrieved 2024-03-03.
* 1 2 Xinhua (2014-05-22). "宁波轨道交通1号线一期万人试乘" [Trial ride for 10,000 people on Phase 1 of Ningbo Rail Transit Line 1]. Retrieved 2024-03-03.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
* ↑ "宁波轨道交通建设在全国处于什么水平？这份报告告诉你" [What level is Ningpo's rail transport construction in the country? This report tells you.]. cnnb.com.cn. 2023-04-08. Retrieved 2024-03-03.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
* ↑ 中国宁波网 (2021-06-29). "全省首列全自动运行地铁列车来了!宁波5号线一期联调联试" [The first fully automated metro train in the province is here! The first phase of Ningpo Line 5 is under commissioning.]. Retrieved 2024-03-03.
* ↑ "宁波市轨道交通1号线二期工程可行性研究报告通过批准" [The feasibility study report of the second phase of Ningpo Rail Transit Line 1 was approved]. National Development and Reform Commission. 2012. Archived from the original on 2013-11-09.
* ↑ 中国宁波网 (2016-03-21). "『宁波』轨道交通1号线二期开通试运营" ["Ningpo" Railway Line 1 Phase 2 Opens for Trial Operation]. rail-transit.com. Retrieved 2024-03-03.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
* ↑ 中国宁波网. "宁波轨道交通2号线一期9月26日8：50开通试运营" [Ningpo Rail Transit Line 2 Phase I opens for trial operation at 8:50pm on 26th September.]. cnnb.com.cn. Retrieved 2024-03-03.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
* 1 2 3 宁波晚报 (2011-11-01). "宁波第二轮轨道交通建设规划全面启动" [Ningpo's second round of rail transit construction planning is in full swing]. nb.ifeng.com. Retrieved 2024-03-03.
* 1 2 浙江在线 (2011-05-26). "2020年宁波将形成"四线一环"轨道交通网络格局" [In 2020, Ningbo will form "four lines and a ring" rail transport network pattern]. www.zjol.com.cn. Retrieved 2024-03-03.
* ↑ 中国宁波网 (2021-12-27). "宁波轨道交通5号线一期12月28日10点开通运营" [Ningpo Rail Transit Line 5 Phase I opens for business at 10:00 on 28th December]. cnnb.com.cn. Retrieved 2024-03-03.
* 1 2 National Development and Reform Commission (2020-12-14). "国家发展改革委关于宁波市城市轨道交通第三期建设规划（2021-2026年）的批复" [Approval of the Third Phase Construction Plan of Ningpo Urban Rail Transit (2021-2026)]. National Development and Reform Commission. Retrieved 2024-03-03.
* ↑ "城市轨道交通2015年度统计和分析报告" [Urban rail transit 2015 annual statistical and analytical report]. China Association of Metros. 2020-04-22. Retrieved 2024-03-03.
* ↑ "城市轨道交通2016年度统计和分析报告" [Urban rail transit 2016 annual statistical and analytical report]. China Association of Metros. 2020-04-22. Retrieved 2024-03-04.
* ↑ "城市轨道交通2017年度统计和分析报告" [Urban rail transit 2017 annual statistical and analytical report]. China Association of Metros. 2020-04-22. Retrieved 2024-03-04.
* ↑ "城市轨道交通2018年度统计和分析报告" [Urban rail transit 2018 annual statistical and analytical report]. China Association of Metros. 2020-04-22. Retrieved 2024-03-04.
* ↑ "城市轨道交通2019年度统计和分析报告" [Urban rail transit 2018 annual statistical and analytical report]. China Association of Metros. 2020-05-18. Retrieved 2024-03-03.
* ↑ "城市轨道交通2020年度统计和分析报告" [Urban rail transit 2018 annual statistical and analytical report]. China Association of Metros. 2021-04-10. Retrieved 2024-03-04.
* ↑ "城市轨道交通2021年度统计和分析报告" [Urban rail transit 2018 annual statistical and analytical report]. China Association of Metros. 2022-04-22. Retrieved 2024-03-04.
* ↑ "城市轨道交通2022年度统计和分析报告" [Urban rail transit 2018 annual statistical and analytical report]. China Association of Metros. 2023-03-31. Retrieved 2024-03-04.