# Transportation Deployment Casebook/2023/Shinkansen
## Qualitative analysis
### Description of Shinkansen

Shinkansen (新幹線) is one of the high-speed train services in Japan. Shinkansen means “New mainline” in Japanese, so the service was developed to carry passengers to major cities faster. According to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, Japan (2006), the plan is defined by Nationwide Shinkansen Railway Development Law (1970), and the law says that Shinkansen is a train service that can run more than 200km/h to connect major cities. Thus, the main essential technology characteristic is that Shinkansen can travel over 200km/h. In the case of the Tohoku Shinkansen, the speed reaches 320km/h. The others depend on line though the majority of lines are operated with over 270km/h as of this moment. In the beginning, service was only available between Osaka and Tokyo, but the current system connects to other cities such as Hokkaido (the northern part of Japan) and Kagoshima (the southern part of Japan). Indeed, the statistic of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, (2006)indicates the operating distance is increased to 2997.1 km (2020) from 552.6km (1965). Also, the law (1970)indicates that the high-speed train service aimed to contribute to Japan’s national and local economy. Thus, the service seems to focus on commuters (business) leading to economic development. Sato (2007)shows the purpose to use Shinkansen, and he revealed that approximately 70% of passengers use Shinkansen for business in 2000. This means that the main market of the Shinkansen is businessmen and businesswomen.
One of the main advantages seems to be the high accessibility to travel to major Japanese cities. For example, Both of the Shinkansen stations in Osaka and Tokyo are close to the business area of them. Those stations are connected to a lot of local lines, which enable passengers to complete their trips by only railroads. In contrast, in the case of aviation, Haneda Airport (Tokyo) and Itami Airport (Osaka) are not as close as Shinkansen stations. Indeed, Inoue et al. (2015) show that good access is one of the factors to select Shinkansen. Travel duration may be one of the advantages to use the Shinkansen. Tokyo is approximately 550km far from Osaka, but Shinkansen enable passengers to travel within 2.5 hrs. Inoue et al. (2015) describe that short travel duration is one of the reasons why passengers travel via Shinkansen.

### Prior Mode

There were other transportation systems were available before the invention of the Shinkansen. For instance, railways operated by companies and Japanese National Railways. Also, ferries were the common way to travel from Tokyo to Osaka. However, there were limitations. Congestion was a problem between Tokyo and Osaka. According to Noguchi (1990, as cited in Hood, 2006), he found that the number of passengers was 3 to 4 times capacity. In addition to this, such transportation systems had significant safety issues. Hood (2006) found that there were over 1800 victims due to the transportation systems. It was after World War Ⅱ, so a lot of infrastructure was still rebuilding, so the network was poor. The market of transportation was developed by several conditions in Japan. For instance, the baby boom was observed from 1947 to 1949, so the population was grown. Also, Japan experienced big economic growth due to the Korean war. These factors mean that the demand of transport would be increased. To address the problems, the government sought a new main line (Shinkansen). This is because prior trains and ferries were slow, crowded and not safe. The government decided that it would construct a new line to avoid any human entrance to railways (overpass) and operate with high speed (gentle curve).

### Invention of the Shinkansen

There are several inventions of the Shinkansen. One of the technologies is the suitable structure of bogies. This is because there are no data in the high-speed condition. Thus, the development team of Shinkansen investigated the phenomenon that happened to bogies (Shimomae, 2022). He revealed that the project team found that prior bogies were able to be used for high-speed operation. However, the team found the other problem. It occurred by the elasticity of an axile. They continued to research the phenomenon by trying various types of bogies, and then they solved the problem by specific suspension at a particular location with rubber which enables the axles to have adequate elasticity.
Automatic Train Control (ATC) and Centralised Traffic Control System (CTC) are also one of the inventions to operate the Shinkansen. This is because Shinkansen would be operated at over 200km/h, so it seemed to be impossible to stop Shinkansen after train drivers recognised traffic lights. Thus, such automatic control systems were invented to keep distance automatically. AF waves were used gradually at that time, so Kawanabe applied such technology to invent ATC (Shimomae, 2022). CTC was invented in the USA, and it was installed on New York Central Railroad in 1927, and a couple of companies in Japan installed it in 1954 (Shimomae, 2022). However, Simomae (2022) showed that CTC was only installed on short-distance lines. Thus, they applied existing technology to invent CTC for long-distance use by testing prototypes (Shimomae, 2022). These technologies enable drivers to keep a constant distance to avoid crushing.

### Early market development

The first Shinkansen line is Tokaido Shinkansen which is operated between Osaka and Tokyo. In the case of Tokaido Shinkansen, the lines focus on commuters who travel between Osaka and Tokyo. Before opening the Tokaido Shinkansen, it took approximately 6hr, and it was reduced to approximately 4hr (Shimomae, 2022). It enabled commuters to travel within 1 day. If it was 6hr travel for each trip leg, it would be difficult to return home by night. However, using Shinkansen services, passengers could leave Tokyo’s home in the morning, attend a meeting in Osaka and go back to their homes in Tokyo by night. This system contributed to enhancing the demand for commuting between Tokyo and Osaka. This success leads to developing new lines (new markets), and a lot of cities and prefectures tried to invite new lines to them.

### Role of policy

The first government policy for Shinkansen is “Dangan ressha” which means “Bullet trains”. Before World War Ⅱ, Japan had the land of Korea, Taiwan and some parts of China. Due to wars against China and the countries that controlled the eastern parts of Asia such as USA, UK, France and Netherlands, carrying huge goods played a significant role to support Japanese military power, so the Japanese government planned “Dangan ressha” to connect Tokyo and Shimonoseki. Such countries controlled the eastern part of Asia, so Shimonoseki, the city that has a port near Korea, was a suitable place to transport goods to the area they controlled. This plan was including developing new trains that can travel at 200km/h (Shimomae, 2022). However, a lot of infrastructure was destroyed by the war, so the project was not completed. After World War Ⅱ, the demand for commuting between Osaka and Tokyo increased, so the Japanese National Railways sought the “Dangan ressha” as “Shinkansen”, and the institution constructed Shinkansen. The plans such as routes were from “Dangan ressha”, and some land had already been bought by the government for “Dangan ressha”. Thus, Shinkansen was strongly based on previous policy. After the first Shinkansen was opened in 1964 successfully, the government realised the importance of the Shinkansen, so the government enacted Nationwide Shinkansen Railway Development Law in 1970. In this law, 5 new lines; Hokkaido Shinkansen, Tohoku Shinkansen, Hokuriku Shinkansen and Kyusyu Shinkansen (2 lines), were proposed to build. Therefore, the new policy was influenced by existing Shinkansen lines. In addition to this, the other two lines had been constructed before the law was enacted, so the two lines were not included in the law. Although the “Dangan ressha” plan indicated the line between Shimonoseki and Tokyo, the new policy shows the other lines. Because of this law, some lines indicated in the law are still constructed. Tohoku Shinkansen and one route of Kyusyu Shinkansen were completed, but Hokuriku, the other route of Kyusyu and Hokkaido Shinkansen are under construction.

### Growth of the Shinkansen

The distance of the operated Shinkansen line and the number of passengers dramatically increased from the opening year. This might be influenced by the market and other events. Shimomae (2022) shows that Tokyo Olympics might contribute to the success of the Shinkansen. The success of the Shinkansen led to the law. The success influenced politicians as well. For instance, prime minister Kakuei Tanaka said enhanced that Shinkansen could develop both rural and urban economies (Kobayashi, 2017). Indeed, a lot of Shinkansen lines had been constructed or proposed during the growing period. However, the cost of construction was one of the serious problems. According to Shimomae (2022), Japanese National Railways were divided into several private companies because the Japanese National Railways had huge debts. Thus, all constructions of the Shinkansen lines were stopped at that time. This shifting to private companies from national institution means that the government encourage the companies to operate the railways more efficiently. Before this shift, the government fully controlled the institution and used tax for the construction of the Shinkansen, but after the shift, the private companies, JR, must consider the budget and the cost like other companies. It also means the construction of the Shinkansen would be supported by the public sectors and private sectors after shifting. As a result, the public sectors still support the operator of the Shinkansen financially, but the private sector must evaluate the profitability and the cost to operate Shinkansen effectively. Also, the private sector must pay the cost. Consequently, the developing Shinkansen lines became more sustainable and cost-efficient.

### Development during the mature phase

At the beginning of the Shinkansen, other infrastructures were not satisfactorily developed. However, the development of technologies and the economy allows the government to construct other infrastructure such as highways and airports. Indeed, aviation enables passengers to travel shorter than the Shinkansen. In addition to this, the Low-Cost Carrier service is operated between Tokyo and Osaka. The price of the service is cheaper than Shinkansen. Long-distance bus service is also available at a cheaper price. To compete with such modes, the Shinkansen is still developed to operate at a higher speed, with high safety and high energy conservation for sustainable development and reduction of costs (Shimomae, 2022). Also, the new Shinkansen is developed to reduce noise (Shimomae, 2022). This is because a new environmental policy was created by the government. Especially for Tokaido Shinkansen, new technology tries to meet current and future demands. JR Tokai and the Japanese Government are constructing Chuo Shinkansen which is operated by maglev trains. From researching the Shinkansen, the research team found that there is maximum speed due to railways and wheels. Thus, JR Tokai re-invent the maglev trains to operate. This train can be operated at 500-600km/h and connect Osaka and Tokyo within approximately 1hr. JR Tokai says that this can contribute to solving the congestion of the Tokaido Shinkansen, and accessibility will be better (JR Tokai, n.d.). This development may be able to compete other modes. Indeed, Inoue et al. (2015) shows that the development may not be prevented by other modes such as Low-Cost Carrier service.

## Quantitative analysis

Data is based on the statistics of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, Japan (2022), and the data is including all Shinkansen lines. To predict the number of passengers-km travelled from the raw data, the following equation was used.
$S(t)=K/(1+\exp(-b(t-t_{i})))$
Where,
S(t): status measure, t:time, ti: inflection time, K: saturation status level, b: estimated coefficient
K, ti and b are unknown, so following linear regression was used to estimate them.
$ln(PKT)/(K-PKT)=bt+c$
Where,
PKT: Passengers-km travelled, c: coefficient
The results are shown in Figures 1,2 and Table 1. The data is including conditions during the pandemic, so a dramatic drop was observed between 2020 and 2021. This unusual situation may affect the prediction, so two cases were considered: analysing whole data (case 1) and analysing by excluding pandemic conditions (case 2). As a result, the number of passengers-km travelled seems to increase. Indeed, there are some decreases in 2009,2019 and 2020, but it may be because of the negative impacts of Lehman Brothers and the pandemic. Analysis indicates that case 1 may not be accurate because the r square is approximately 0.6 while case 2 is 0.9. Similarly, the t-statistics of case 2 are bigger than case 1. However, the t-statistics of both cases are more than 2, which means they are statistically significant. Thus, case 2 is more accurate while case 1 may be enough accurate to predict. The result of case 2 indicates the inflection time as 1995. From Figure 2, 1965-1980 may be the birthing period, and the growth period seems to be between 1980 and 2010. After 2010, it may be the maturity stage for the Shinkansen service. By 1980, the numbers grew gradually, and there is constant growth from 1980 and 2010. However, the estimated model shows that the number of passengers-km travelled tends to be stable after 2010. In 2022, a new Shinkansen line was opened, and one part of the Hokuriku Shinkansen is supposed to open in 2024. Thus, the model may be different after the openings.
Table 1: Comparison of R square and t-statistic :
| | Case 1 | Case 2 |
| R Square | 0.58 | 0.92 |
| T Statistics | 6.17 | 16.95 |
| P value | 1.2E-06 | 3.2E-15 |
| Inflection time | 2000 | 1995 |

## References

Hood, C. (2006). Shinkansen: From Bullet train to symbol of modern Japan (vol. 5). Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203180389
Inoue, G., Ono, M., Uehara, K., & Isono, F. (2015). Stated-preference analysis to estimate the domestic transport demand following the future entry of LCCs and the inauguration of the Linear Chuo Shinkansen in Japan. Journal of Air Transport Management, 47, 199–217. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2015.06.004
JR Tokai (n.d.). Liner Chuo Shinkansen and the future of Japan. https://linear-chuo-shinkansen.jr-central.co.jp/future/
Kobayashi. T. (2017, February 3). “Shinkansen wo zenkokuni” Tanaka Kakuei no tetudo seisaku toha?: “Nihon retto kaizoron” ni miru 45nennmaeno miraizu [“Build Shinkansen to entire Japan” What is the railway policy of Kakuei Tanaka?: The future image in 1975 based on Nihonrettokaizoron] Toyo Keizai Online. https://toyokeizai.net/articles/-/156568?page=4
Nationwide Shinkansen Railway Development Law 1976 (Japan). https://elaws.e-gov.go.jp/document?lawid=345AC1000000071_20150801_000000000000000
Sato, T. (2007). A study on changes in passenger demand for Shinkansen. https://www.jttri.or.jp/members2/kenkyuh/21_sato.pdf
Shimomae, T. (2022). Birth of the Shinkansen : the origin story of the world-first bullet train. Springer.
The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, Japan. (2006). What is the outline of “new Shinkansen lines”?. Shinkansen Development.
https://www.mlit.go.jp/english/2006/h_railway_bureau/01_shinkansen/01_whats.html
The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, Japan. (2022). Tetsudo unsou toukei chosa [Railways logistics statistics]. E-Stat. https://www.e-stat.go.jp/stat-search/files?page=1&layout=datalist&toukei=00600350&kikan=00600&tstat=000001011026&cycle=8&year=20211&month=0&result_back=1&result_page=1&tclass1val=0
The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, Japan. (n.d.). Shinkansen ryokyaku yusouryou no suii [The change in the number of passengers carried by Shinkansen]. https://www.mlit.go.jp/common/000232384.pdf
* ↑ The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, Japan. (2006). What is the outline of “new Shinkansen lines”?. Shinkansen Development. https://www.mlit.go.jp/english/2006/h_railway_bureau/01_shinkansen/01_whats.html
* 1 2 3 Nationwide Shinkansen Railway Development Law 1970 (Japan). https://elaws.e-gov.go.jp/document?lawid=345AC1000000071_20150801_000000000000000
* 1 2 The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, Japan. (2022). Tetsudo unsou toukei chosa [Railways logistics statistics]. E-Stat. https://www.e-stat.go.jp/stat-search/files?page=1&layout=datalist&toukei=00600350&kikan=00600&tstat=000001011026&cycle=8&year=20211&month=0&result_back=1&result_page=1&tclass1val=0
* 1 2 The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, Japan. (n.d.). Shinkansen ryokyaku yusouryou no suii [The change in the number of passengers carried by Shinkansen]. https://www.mlit.go.jp/common/000232384.pdf
* ↑ Sato, T. (2007). A study on changes in passenger demand for Shinkansen. https://www.jttri.or.jp/members2/kenkyuh/21_sato.pdf
* 1 2 3 Inoue, G., Ono, M., Uehara, K., & Isono, F. (2015). Stated-preference analysis to estimate the domestic transport demand following the future entry of LCCs and the inauguration of the Linear Chuo Shinkansen in Japan. Journal of Air Transport Management, 47, 199–217. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2015.06.004
* 1 2 Hood, C. (2006). Shinkansen: From Bullet train to symbol of modern Japan (vol. 5). Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203180389
* 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Shimomae, T. (2022). Birth of the Shinkansen : the origin story of the world-first bullet train. Springer.
* ↑ Kobayashi. T. (2017, February 3). “Shinkansen wo zenkokuni” Tanaka Kakuei no tetudo seisaku toha?: “Nihon retto kaizoron” ni miru 45nennmaeno miraizu [“Build Shinkansen to entire Japan” What is the railway policy of Kakuei Tanaka?: The future image in 1975 based on Nihonrettokaizoron] Toyo Keizai Online. https://toyokeizai.net/articles/-/156568?page=4
* ↑ JR Tokai (n.d.). Liner Chuo Shinkansen and the future of Japan. https://linear-chuo-shinkansen.jr-central.co.jp/future/