# Transportation Deployment Casebook/2023/Saskatchewan Railway
## Introduction

Saskatchewan is a province in western Canada with an estimated population of 1,205,119 as of 2020. Historically, the people here lived mostly by farming. The advent of the railroad promoted the development of agricultural civilization in the region and connected it geographically with the rest of Canada and the United States. In this case, the difficulties involved in developing transportation policies and solutions to those concerns can be examined by focusing on the life cycle of rail traffic.

## Mode Description
### Technological Characteristics

A wheeled vehicle that transports people and cargo along the track is called a railway, which the locomotive and carriages are guided by the track. Most modern wheels and rails are constructed of metal. There are typically more than two sets of carriages in rail transportation due to the metal wheels typically reduced friction resistance compared to rubber-tired wheels. A steam or diesel engine provides the propulsion when running.

### Advantages

The railway is the dominant technology of the modern era also the representation of the development and assurance of modernity.

##### Transportation and Economy

First, it can move people and cargo more rapidly and cost-effective. According to Withuhn(2019), transportation prices per mile decreased tenfold and transit speeds improved tenfold as rail networks expanded across North America in the 19th century. Two million people were employed by the railways at a period of great prosperity. Additionally, almost all happenings in industry, mining and agriculture depend on the railway system. In the following nearly 100 years, it becomes to a significant national economic index indicator.

##### Community and Culture

Railway is necessary for both personal and professional travel, the sale of commodities, delivery, and mail. Individuals enjoy the items from the distant place in time and encourages interpersonal contact. Even across countries, regional ties have become deeper. In addition to fostering social connection, the railway also promoted cultural interactions. Lengthy train rides gave rise to new genres of literature and advertising.

##### Politics

As a symbol of the contemporary world, the significance of railroad is the effective fusion of equipment, labor, buildings, capital, transportation, and decision-making tools.
The shares, the intricate bureaucracy, and the multiple procedures imply that the railway is a driving force behind the development of the transportation system on a political and social level. Moreover, due to its networked nature, urbanization, suburbanization, nation-building, colonial exploitation, and global capitalism are all made possible.

### Main Market

As an entity, the railway network has a firm grip on a nation. Revill (2013) claims railways serve as a sort of spatial dictature, and corporate profit-seeking is a form of feudalism with exploitative and coercive characteristics. For instance, the Grange Movement in the US in 1867 provided evidence of the scope and significance of the fight between farmers and the railways and territorial monopoly. Railroad supported in immigration, economy, and market relying on people. It was commonly accepted that Saskatchewan's wheat boom in 1896 depended on the expansion of the railway system.

## Transportation mode before the railway
#### Piror mode

In Saskatchewan, trails and waterways were the primary modes of transportation prior to the construction of railways. Waterways like the Saskatchewan River and its tributaries was commonly used and transporting via canoes and steamboats.
Trails offered another mode of mobility in Saskatchewan, which usually include native paths, buffalo trails, and explorer trails. Horses and cows were used as “engine” and connected with carts, wagons, and travois, for transporting.

#### Limitations of prior mode

Nature condition: The weather in Saskatchewan is comparatively extreme(Atlas of Alberta Railways, n.d.). It is situated at high latitudes and close to the middle of the continent, far from the ocean's moist and regulating impact. Therefore, the dry summer may restrict the traffic on waterways, while the cold winter may lead the river to freeze over.
Low carrying capacity: The amount of cargo is limited via ships due to holding space. The wagons and carriages are limited by the size of the road as well as the distance.

## Invention of the railway locomotive

With the time and the progress of science and technology, railway locomotive types are divided into 3 classes, including steam, Internal combustion and electric.

### Steam

Three essential parts constitute the steam locomotive: the boiler, the engine, and the carriage (G.D. Dempsey C.E & C.E, 2015). Their functions are to produce power, transform the power into traction, and transport freight and people, respectively. The machine is propelled by steam, which is generated inside and frequently receives injections of water and fuel. As water is turned into steam and expands significantly, the process provides usable energy. Thus, the goal in the design is to obtain as much power as possible from as small a machine as possible. The last part - the carriage, including the frame and wheels - provides stable conditions for working and running.

### Internal combustion

Internal combustion locomotives are fueled to generate rotational power, which is transmitted to the wheels. The steam engine was unable to generate adequate power as productivity and demand increase. This led to the birth of the internal combustion engine. The benefits of the internal combustion engine, include:
* High efficiency: refers to the percentage of fuel energy that is transferred to labour performed away from the steering wheel. An internal combustion locomotive achieves 25% efficiency, while a steam engine only achieves 8% (Franco & P. Labryn, 2013).
* Reduced cost: Because internal combustion engines don't need to pre-heat the machine, they save cost on fuel and labour.
* No water consumption: In nations with limited water resources, the purchase of water might be an extra expense.
* The potential for long-distance travel: The power produced by the steam engine limitations make it impossible to travel more than 300 kilometers.

### Electric

Electric locomotive, powered by electricity, that travels along a track through a conductor. Electric locomotives profit from the high efficiency with lower energy wasting. Without engines or exhaust pipes, there is less mechanical noise when electric locomotives operating. They produce short-term surge power for quick acceleration, therefore, is suitable for short commute. Moreover, renewable or low-carbon energy sources can powered such as solar and wind.

## Market Development

First, technological improvement is a prerequisite for railway growth. Productivity significantly rose since the first industrial revolution. The first steam locomotive was created by Richard Trevithick and it became economically feasible for commercial usage after iterations.
Enhancing regional connectedness is the second. The Champlain St. Lawrence Railway (C&SL), an internal provincial railway, is the first railway in Canada in 1836. At that time, connecting the significant economic hubs on the mainland has been one of the railways' main responsibilities.
The growth of the railways and agriculture were interdependent, as was indicated in the wheat boom. The expansion of railways increased the possibility of transporting products, which fueled the expansion of agriculture.

## Life Cycle
### Birth phase

The Qu'Appelle, Long Lake and Saskatchewan Railway (QLLS), which started operating in 1882, was the first railway in Saskatchewan. The federal government constructed the railway as a component of the Transcontinental line that connects eastern and western Canada (from Regina to Prince Albert with a subline to Fort Carlton). The Canadian Pacific Railway (CPR) finally took over the QLLS in 1885, because of a financial success. The route was extended by CPR and changed from narrow gauge to standard gauge, playing a significant role in the transcontinental rail network. The Canadian Northern Railway Corporation (CNR) was established in 1891 and started constructing railways in western Canada, including Saskatchewan.
The Canadian Parliament enacted the Canadian Pacific Railway Act of 1881 at the time. It served as the legal foundation to construct the Pacific Railway for the CPR because of significant financial and manpower requirements. The Canadian Pacific Railway Act of 1881 stipulated that to assist the building of the railway, the government would provide the CPR a sizable piece of land, financial gifts, and advantageous tax status. Also, the government imposed other requirements including a deadline of building and service. Through this act, a strong support is provided for the construction of national railway, and also promoted the Canadian economy and national unity.

### Growth phase

The main line of Grand Trunk Pacific Railway (GTP) was finished in 1910, opening up a second transcontinental railway route through Saskatchewan. After 2 year, the Saskatchewan Grain Growers Association was established by the government to promote improved rail rates and services for farmers. The Saskatoon Municipal Railway, the first urban railway in the province, started running a streetcar system in 1913. Over a tenth of the 2,266 miles of track the CPR constructed between 1923 and 1931 were in Saskatchewan grassland.
Although Parliament had never implemented any legislation that directly impacts tolls, it is essential that freight rates for grain exports from western Canada in the transportation aspect. The reason might be because following the Second World War, the overall reliance on wheat declined as mineral, forestry, and fisheries resources were exploited in Canada. Wheat, the economic backbone of Saskatchewan, was less impacted by rail charges.
Nonetheless, there were still discrepancies and disagreements about railway fees between the CPR, farmers, and the government, as the conflict between the public and private sectors. For instance, the Canadian government imposed Crow's Nest rates on the export of wheat crops to the east. The rising cost of operating the railroad and the new tariffs meant that CPR faced a loss of revenue (Currie, 1967), and farmers would have to pay the freight. Even though Crow's Nest prices were eliminated in 1919, Western farmers asked for the right that reduced train rates and improved service especially in the era of The Great Depression. It was not until 1933 that the federal government established the Canadian Wheat Board.

### Mature phase

The railway sector developed throughout the following two to three decades, until 1950s. Railway industry decreased as the industry of cars and trucks rose. In Saskatchewan, railway branches started to disappear practically as soon as the final line was constructed. Both Canadian National Railway (CNR) and Canadian Pacific Railway (CPR) asserted that running several branch lines depending on the grains was a loss-making endeavor. The Robson Commission was established by the federal government, allowing railways to sever all 525 miles (845 km) of expensive branch lines. More than 1,450 miles (2,333 km) of branch lines were abandoned during the following five years, with half of those abandonments taking place in Saskatchewan.
Also, there was a union and job issue. In 1860s, the Railroad Brotherhood was established to represent workers. Strikes in June and December 1883 were caused by the miserable living and working conditions in the mobile camps, low income as well as the intense job demands. Moreover, the greatest strike in Canadian history occurred in 1950 when 130,000 railway employees went on strike against the CPR and CNR.

### Re-invent phase

The development of the railway system took a new turn in 1995. To provide rural villages and resource development initiatives with rail connectivity, the Hudson Bay Railway started operating in northern Saskatchewan. The revival of railways has also been seen in the world. Substantial money has been spent on upgrading the rail infrastructure, particularly on building high-speed train lines. The trains are more competitive due to air network high-capacity and road network congestion. In addition, investment in railways becomes a tool to lower carbon dioxide emissions because of rising fuel prices and global warming. The re-invention of railway provide an opportunity for the cities with mature urbanization.

# Quantitative Analysis

According to data provided by Statistics Canada, the railway industry length of track operated at the end of the year, the estimation of a three-parameter logistic function is below.

### Formula

Three-parameter S-curve logistic function:
S(t) = Smax/[1+exp(-b(t-ti)]
where,
S(t) = State Measurement (operated length of track in km)，
t = time (in years)，
t 0 = inflection point time (the year in which half of S max is obtained)，
S max = saturation level (maximum operated length of track in km)，
b = the coefficient to be estimated.
Ordinary Least Squares Regression:
Y = bX + c
where,
Y = LN(length/(K-length)),
X=Year.

### Calculation and Discussion

Firstly, the maximum value is selected from the data of nearly 200 years, which is 96958 km in 1974. On this basis, we increased to 100000 km as the S max, and increased by 10000 each time for 20 iterations. finally, the y value is calculated. In 20 iterations, the maximum RSQ value and the best model fitting degree are selected. The predicted curve of change is calculated according to this value. The result is shown below:
As can be clearly seen from the chart, the rapid growth of railway in the first two decades of the 20th century. It then took more than half a century for it to mature and gradually decline until 2020. This is a little bit different from the expected curve.
The Quantitative Analysis in Canada is due to the lack of data in Saskatchewan, which cannot show the life cycle of railway. However, the existing data also illustrated in the appendix.

# Reference

* Atlas of Alberta Railways. (n.d.). Atlas of Alberta Railways -- The Canadian Pacific Railway. Railways.library.ualberta.ca. https://railways.library.ualberta.ca/Chapters-7-1/
* Bruinsma, F., Pels, E., Priemus, H., Rietveld, P., Bert Van Wee, & Springerlink (Online Service. (2008). Railway Development : Impacts on Urban Dynamics. Physica-Verlag Hd.
* Canada. Dominion Bureau of Statistics. Railway transport. Ottawa.
* Currie, A. W. (1967). Canadian Transportation Economics. University of Toronto Press.
* Encyclopedia Of Saskatchewan. (2020). The Encyclopedia of Saskatchewan | Home. Uregina.ca. https://esask.uregina.ca/home.jsp
* Floca, B. (2013). Locomotive. Atheneum Books For Young Readers.
* Franco, I., & P. Labryn. (2013). Internal-Combustion Locomotives and Motor Coaches. Springer.
* G.D. Dempsey C.E, & C.E, C. (2015). The Victorian Steam Locomotive (pp. 1–54). Wharncliffe.
* Government of Canada, S. C. (2022, February 9). Profile table, Census Profile, 2021 Census of Population - Saskatchewan [Province]. Www12.Statcan.gc.ca. https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2021/dp-pd/prof/details/page.cfm?DGUIDlist=2021A000247&GENDERlist=1&HEADERlist=0&Lang=E&STATISTIClist=1&SearchText=Saskatchewan
* Revill, G. (2013). Railway (pp. 8–114). Reaktion Books.
* Statistics Canada. (2023). Historical statistics of Canada: Section T: Transportation and Communication. Www150.Statcan.gc.ca. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/11-516-x/sectiont/4147444-eng.htm#1
* Transport Canada. (2021). Transportation in Canada 2020 - Overview Report.
* Withuhn, W. L. (2019). American Steam Locomotives. Indiana University Press.

# Appendix

Railway industry length of track operated at the end of the year in Canada. (1835-2020)
| Canada | Date - Independent variable | Resultant Calculation |
| | Operated length of Track | S(t) = S_{max}/[1+exp(-b(t-t_i)] |
| Year | km | km |
| 1836 | 26 | 1042 |
| 1837 | 26 | 1088 |
| 1838 | 26 | 1135 |
| 1839 | 26 | 1185 |
| 1840 | 26 | 1236 |
| 1841 | 26 | 1290 |
| 1842 | 26 | 1346 |
| 1843 | 26 | 1405 |
| 1844 | 26 | 1466 |
| 1845 | 26 | 1530 |
| 1846 | 26 | 1596 |
| 1847 | 87 | 1666 |
| 1848 | 87 | 1738 |
| 1849 | 87 | 1813 |
| 1850 | 106 | 1892 |
| 1851 | 256 | 1974 |
| 1852 | 330 | 2059 |
| 1853 | 814 | 2148 |
| 1854 | 1230 | 2241 |
| 1855 | 1411 | 2338 |
| 1856 | 2276 | 2439 |
| 1857 | 2324 | 2544 |
| 1858 | 3006 | 2653 |
| 1859 | 3209 | 2767 |
| 1860 | 3323 | 2886 |
| 1861 | 3454 | 3010 |
| 1862 | 3523 | 3139 |
| 1863 | 3523 | 3273 |
| 1864 | 3523 | 3413 |
| 1865 | 3605 | 3559 |
| 1866 | 3666 | 3710 |
| 1867 | 3666 | 3868 |
| 1868 | 3666 | 4032 |
| 1869 | 4062 | 4203 |
| 1870 | 4212 | 4381 |
| 1871 | 4337 | 4567 |
| 1872 | 4665 | 4759 |
| 1873 | 6167 | 4960 |
| 1874 | 6970 | 5168 |
| 1875 | 7731 | 5385 |
| 1876 | 8398 | 5610 |
| 1877 | 9305 | 5844 |
| 1878 | 10020 | 6088 |
| 1879 | 11037 | 6341 |
| 1880 | 11578 | 6604 |
| 1881 | 11798 | 6877 |
| 1882 | 13996 | 7160 |
| 1883 | 15413 | 7454 |
| 1884 | 16533 | 7760 |
| 1885 | 17337 | 8077 |
| 1886 | 18979 | 8406 |
| 1887 | 19608 | 8747 |
| 1888 | 20254 | 9101 |
| 1889 | 20254 | 9468 |
| 1890 | 21164 | 9848 |
| 1891 | 22270 | 10242 |
| 1892 | 23438 | 10650 |
| 1893 | 25758 | 11072 |
| 1894 | 25149 | 11509 |
| 1895 | 25712 | 11961 |
| 1896 | 26184 | 12429 |
| 1897 | 26635 | 12913 |
| 1898 | 27150 | 13413 |
| 1899 | 27761 | 13929 |
| 1900 | 28416 | 14463 |
| 1901 | 30117 | 15014 |
| 1902 | 30117 | 15582 |
| 1903 | 30558 | 16168 |
| 1904 | 31271 | 16772 |
| 1905 | 32971 | 17395 |
| 1906 | 34364 | 18036 |
| 1907 | 36133 | 18696 |
| 1908 | 36960 | 19375 |
| 1909 | 38792 | 20074 |
| 1910 | 39801 | 20792 |
| 1911 | 40877 | 21529 |
| 1912 | 43013 | 22286 |
| 1913 | 47160 | 23063 |
| 1914 | 49560 | 23859 |
| 1915 | 57257 | 24675 |
| 1916 | 60244 | 25511 |
| 1917 | 62127 | 26366 |
| 1918 | 81497 | 27241 |
| 1919 | 81457 | 28135 |
| 1920 | 83013 | 29048 |
| 1921 | 83935 | 29980 |
| 1922 | 83461 | 30930 |
| 1923 | 83583 | 31898 |
| 1924 | 84800 | 32884 |
| 1925 | 87066 | 33888 |
| 1926 | 87354 | 34908 |
| 1927 | 88058 | 35944 |
| 1928 | 89246 | 36996 |
| 1929 | 89911 | 38063 |
| 1930 | 91156 | 39144 |
| 1931 | 91585 | 40239 |
| 1932 | 91831 | 41346 |
| 1933 | 91216 | 42465 |
| 1934 | 90959 | 43596 |
| 1935 | 92008 | 44736 |
| 1936 | 91237 | 45886 |
| 1937 | 91467 | 47044 |
| 1938 | 91346 | 48210 |
| 1939 | 91090 | 49381 |
| 1940 | 91016 | 50558 |
| 1941 | 91251 | 51739 |
| 1942 | 91063 | 52922 |
| 1943 | 91451 | 54108 |
| 1944 | 91554 | 55295 |
| 1945 | 90223 | 56481 |
| 1946 | 91741 | 57666 |
| 1947 | 91815 | 58848 |
| 1948 | 91741 | 60027 |
| 1949 | 93075 | 61201 |
| 1950 | 93337 | 62370 |
| 1951 | 93583 | 63532 |
| 1952 | 93810 | 64686 |
| 1953 | 94460 | 65831 |
| 1954 | 94565 | 66967 |
| 1955 | 95458 | 68092 |
| 1956 | 96287 | 69205 |
| 1957 | 95107 | 70307 |
| 1958 | 95465 | 71395 |
| 1959 | 95585 | 72469 |
| 1960 | 95262 | 73528 |
| 1961 | 94600 | 74572 |
| 1962 | 94563 | 75601 |
| 1963 | 94164 | 76613 |
| 1964 | 94055 | 77607 |
| 1965 | 93989 | 78585 |
| 1966 | 93825 | 79544 |
| 1967 | 94195 | 80485 |
| 1968 | 94401 | 81408 |
| 1969 | 95135 | 82311 |
| 1970 | 95964 | 83196 |
| 1971 | 96094 | 84061 |
| 1972 | 96620 | 84907 |
| 1973 | 96957 | 85732 |
| 1974 | 96958 | 86539 |
| 1975 | 96633 | 87325 |
| 1976 | 96521 | 88092 |
| 1977 | 96052 | 88840 |
| 1978 | 95382 | 89567 |
| 1979 | 94263 | 90275 |
| 1980 | 93723 | 90964 |
| 1981 | 92356 | 91634 |
| 1982 | 91218 | 92285 |
| 1983 | 90347 | 92917 |
| 1984 | 87514 | 93530 |
| 1985 | 86429 | 94125 |
| 1986 | 86090 | 94703 |
| 1987 | 85830 | 95262 |
| 1988 | 85853 | 95804 |
| 1989 | 82712 | 96329 |
| 1990 | 82737 | 96837 |
| 1991 | 81638 | 97329 |
| 1992 | 80589 | 97805 |
| 1993 | 78547 | 98265 |
| 1994 | 78453 | 98710 |
| 1995 | 77422 | 99140 |
| 1996 | 77390 | 99555 |
| 1997 | 76063 | 99956 |
| 1998 | 74530 | 100343 |
| 1999 | 74052 | 100716 |
| 2000 | 74412 | 101076 |
| 2001 | 73821 | 101424 |
| 2002 | 73186 | 101759 |
| 2003 | 71920 | 102082 |
| 2004 | 72048 | 102393 |
| 2005 | 72367 | 102693 |
| 2006 | 71878 | 102982 |
| 2007 | 71754 | 103260 |
| 2008 | 70230 | 103528 |
| 2009 | 67537 | 103786 |
| 2010 | 66312 | 104034 |
| 2011 | 64218 | 104273 |
| 2012 | 63106 | 104503 |
| 2013 | 62341 | 104724 |
| 2014 | 62307 | 104936 |
| 2015 | 63567 | 105141 |
| 2016 | 61856 | 105337 |
| 2017 | 61859 | 105526 |
| 2018 | 63050 | 105708 |
| 2019 | 64878 | 105882 |
| 2020 | 67114 | 106050 |