# Hangzhou Metro
## Overview of Hangzhou Metro
### Introduction

The metro, also known as underground railway and underground railway, is a type of urban rail transport that travels in underground tunnels and is usually used for rapid public transport systems within cities. The metro system consists of underground railways, station facilities, rolling stock, power supply systems, signalling systems, and so on. As a modern urban transport system, the metro has become an indispensable part of many metropolises, providing urban residents with a convenient, fast, safe and comfortable way of travelling, and at the same time playing an important role in promoting the development of the city. So in this general trend of metro development, Hangzhou will not be an exception.
Hangzhou Metro refers to the urban rail transit system serving Hangzhou City and areas in the Hangzhou metropolitan area in Zhejiang Province, China. Its first line, Hangzhou Metro Line 1, was officially opened on 24 November 2012, making Hangzhou the fourth city in East China and the first in Zhejiang Province to open a metro. As of November 2023, Hangzhou Metro operates a total of 12 lines, with a total of 260 stations (interchange stations are not repeated) and 46 interchange stations. The total operating mileage is about 516 km (excluding 2 city lines). The total mileage of Hangzhou metropolitan area rail transit network is about 610 km. Before the 19th Asian Games in Hangzhou, Hangzhou has formed "12 underground lines, a total length of 516 kilometres of urban rail transit backbone network, to achieve full coverage of the ten urban areas.

### Technology and facilities
#### Technical characteristics

Metro is the forerunner of urban rapid transit. Metro is a rapid rail transit system with electric traction, wheel-rail guided, relatively heavy axle weight, a certain scale of capacity, running according to the operation plan, vehicle grouping running in underground tunnels, or according to the specific conditions of the city, running on the ground or elevated lines. Metro capacity, one-way in 30,000 passengers / hour, up to 6 to 80,000 passengers / hour. Maximum speed of up to 90km / h, travelling speed of up to 40km / h or more, can be 4 ~ 10 grouping, the minimum interval between vehicle operation can be less than 1.5min. drive mode has a DC motor, AC motor, linear motors and so on. Metro is expensive, each kilometre of investment in the 300-600 million yuan. Metro has the disadvantages of high construction cost and long construction period, but at the same time, it has the advantages of large capacity, fast construction, safety, punctuality, energy saving, non-pollution of the environment, and saving urban land. Metros are suitable for urban centres with long travel distances and high passenger demand. The underground railway requires a high level of technology, reliability and safety because most of the lines pass underground or elevated. The metro system, like the national trunk railways, is mainly composed of line network, tracks, stations, vehicles, communication signals and other equipment, which requires each department to be able to organically combine and act in concert to maximise the delivery of the task. The following are the main technical parameters.
| Order | Project | Technical Parameter |
| 1 | Peak hour one-way transportation capacity (person) | 30000~70000 |
| 2 | Train compostion | 4-8 sections, up to 11 sections |
| 3 | Train capacity (person) | 3000 |
| 4 | Vehicle construction speed (km/h) | 80~100 |
| 5 | Average operating speed (km/h) | 30~40 |
| 6 | Average distance between stations (m) | 600~2000 |
| 7 | Maximum throughput capacity (pair/h) | 30 |
| 8 | Isolation rate from ground traffic | 100% |
| 9 | Security and reliability | Preferably |
| 10 | Minimum white line radius (m) | 300 |
| 11 | Minimum vertical curve radius (m) | 3000 |
| 12 | Comfortableness | Preferably |
| 13 | Urban landscape | No major impact |
| 14 | Air pollution, noise pollution | Small |
| 15 | Platform height | Generally, it is a high platform |

#### Vehicle facilities

Train system Hangzhou Metro 1, 2, 4, 9, 16 line used in the train is a B-type car, the train for the aluminium alloy body structure, 6 grouping mode (16 line for 4 grouping). Train diameter 2.8 metres, 3.8 metres high, 120 metres long single section of the passenger capacity of the moving car for 348 people, trailer for 321 people, the whole train capacity of 2036 people, the maximum speed of up to 80 kilometres per hour. Hangzhou metro line 3, 5, 6 trains are AH-type cars, AH-type car single car length and B-type cars, 6-vehicle formation when the length of the front column is about 120 metres, the width of 3 metres, the ride in the compartment will be relatively more comfortable, but also can accommodate more passengers. Hangzhou Metro Line 7, 8, 10, 19 trains are A-type cars, the maximum operating speed of 80 to 120 km / h. A-type underground trains generally use high-strength, lightweight, large cross-section of the drum-type aluminium alloy body, 4-action, 2-trailer 6-vehicle grouping, the car width of 3 metres, the total length of about 140 metres, the maximum passenger capacity of 2,520 people.

### Early market niche and the need to build

The development of urban rapid transit is a strategic decision made by Hangzhou City in accordance with the law of urban development and the development needs of productive forces, taking into account the immediate and long-term, which is not only a major event to promote the development of Hangzhou's public transport across the development of Hangzhou, but also a matter of Hangzhou's future development of the city's strategic overall situation for the creation of a new advantage in the development of the city's functions, optimise the environment of the development of Hangzhou, improve the urban taste of Hangzhou and the quality of life of the masses of the people have a significant practical significance and an important strategic impact.
The development of urban rapid transit is a "people's project" to alleviate the problem of "difficult to travel and parking" and to improve the quality of life of the people, and it is a "pilot project" to strengthen the connection between the main city and the sub-cities and to build a networked metropolis in the city area. ". Now "difficult to travel" has become the majority of people in Hangzhou, reflecting the urgent problem of great concern, become an obstacle to economic and social development and affect the people's lives of the prominent contradictions. From domestic and foreign experience and Hangzhou's actual point of view, the construction of rapid transit, constructing a "rail transit as the skeleton, regular buses as the main body, other ways to supplement" modern three-dimensional transport system, is to solve the problem of "travelling and parking difficult" is a good prescription, is Hangzhou The implementation of public transport priority strategy of the urgent and fundamental move. Moreover, the construction of rapid rail transit corridor connecting the main city and the sub-city, the main city and the group, the main city between the areas, is conducive to the construction of Hangzhou, "a main three sub-sub-six groups," the main skeleton of the city, and further optimise the city's urban spatial layout and form. The construction of the first phase of Hangzhou rail transit project will solve the connection between the three sub-cities and the main city in one go, shorten the space-time distance between the sub-cities and the main city, reduce the cost of commuting, and build a half-hour working circle and living circle between the sub-cities and the main city, which makes it easier for people to accept the sub-cities as a place of work, living, residence, shopping and recreation, and then promote the solution to the problem of "difficult housing". and thus promote the solution of the "housing difficulty" problem.
Before the metro was built, the only options for travelling were bicycles, electric cars, buses or taxi. Bicycles and electric bikes have a close range, can't cross long distances and take a long time to cost. Buses are cheap but not fast and inefficient, and there are a lot of private cars on the road that can easily get stuck in traffic, which is one of the drawbacks of taking a taxi and driving your own car. Of course, the cost of taking a taxi or driving is also very high. At that time, the infrastructure of the city was not perfect, and there were not many parking spaces, so it was very difficult to find a place to park a private car.
Therefore, the advantages of the metro are obvious, and its market is precisely for people who have the need to travel, which can greatly improve people's travelling efficiency and reduce the cost of time and travelling expenses.

## Historical background of policies and construction of specific routes of construction
### Policy orientation of construction

In 1984, Hangzhou commissioned the Second Design Institute of the Ministry of Railways to plan the "Feasibility Study of Hangzhou Light Rail Transit System" with two ground-level light rails crossing through the old city of Hangzhou in the shape of a cross.
In 1986, Hangzhou Municipal Planning Bureau commissioned the Survey and Design Department of the Tunnel Engineering Bureau of the Ministry of Railways to prepare and complete the Feasibility Study Report on the Light Rail Transit around the Lake.
In 1992, Beijing Municipal Urban Construction Design and Research Institute compiled and completed the first "Pre-feasibility Study Report on Hangzhou Railway Transportation".
In February 1993, Hangzhou Municipal Planning and Design Institute completed the Planning Programme for Rapid Transit Line Network.
In November 2001, Hangzhou Rail Transit Phase I Feasibility Study was completed.
On 6th June 2002, Hangzhou Metro Group Co.
In October 2003, the General Office of the State Council issued the Notice on Strengthening the Construction Management of Urban Rapid Transit. In December of the same year, Hangzhou once again declared to the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) the relevant construction plan of Hangzhou Metro.
On 6 June 2005, the National Development and Reform Commission approved the "Hangzhou Railway Transport Phase I Construction Plan (2005-2010)".
On 20 June 2013, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) approved the "Hangzhou Urban Rail Transit Immediate Construction Plan (2013-2019)".
On 16 September 2015, Hangzhou successfully bid to host the 2022 Asian Games.On 12 December 2016, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) approved the Hangzhou Urban Rapid Transit Phase III Construction Plan (2017-2022).

### Specific lines open to traffic

At 14:30 on 24th November 2012, Metro Line 1 (Xianghu Station - Wenze Road Station; Passenger Transportation Centre Station - Linping Station) was opened for trial operation.
At 9:15 on 24 November 2014, the southeast section of Metro Line 2 (Chaoyang Station - Qianjiang Road Station) was opened for trial operation.
At 9:30 on 2 February 2015, the first section of Metro Line 4 (Pangbu Station - Jinjiang Station) was opened for trial operation.
At 15:30 on 3 July 2017, the northwest section of Metro Line 2 Phase 1 (Gucui Road Station - Qianjiang Road Station) was opened for operation.
At 17:00 on 27 December 2017, the second and third phases of Metro Line 2 (Liangzhu Station - Gucui Road Station) were opened for operation, and Line 2 became the first fully opened metro line in Hangzhou.
At 15:00 on 24 June 2019, the first through section of Metro Line 5 (Liangmu Road Station - Shanxian Station) opens for operation.
At 11:00 on 30 December 2020, the first phase of Line 6 (Shuangpu Station - Qianjiang Century City Station), the Hangfu section of Line 6 (Guihua West Road Station - Xiangshan Station of the Academy of Fine Arts), and the first through section of Line 7 (Olympic Sports Center Station - Jiangdong Second Road Station) opened for operation.
At 10:30 on 28 June 2021, Metro Line 8 Phase I (Wenhai South Road Station - Xinwan Road Station) opened for operation. At 14:30 on the same day, Hanghai Intercity Railway (Yuhang High-speed Railway Station - ZJU International Campus Station) opened for operation.
At 15:00 on 17 September 2021, the northern section of Metro Line 9 Phase I (Linping Station - Longan Station), and Line 7 Olympic Sports Centre Station (not included) - Civic Centre Station opened for operation.
At 11:00 on 21 February 2022, the first section of Line 10 Phase I (Cuibai Road Station - Yisheng Road Station) opened for operation.
At 14:00 on 22 September 2022, Line 19 opened for operation.

### Policy Drivers and Markets

The role of the policy is to promote the construction of metro lines, due to the rapid development of Hangzhou, the influx of foreign population, the traffic pressure will only get bigger and bigger, with reference to the Hong Kong Metro and the Shanghai Metro, the size and continuous construction of the state, Hangzhou Metro will also continue to build. Because of the nature of the Hangzhou metro, so there is no same type of transport to compete for the market, the larger the population base, the amount of travelling on the metro will also be more, the development of the Hangzhou metro market is full of potential.

## Quantitative analysis of Hangzhou Metro
### Data Collection and Methodology

The life cycle can be modelled by an S-curve which is used to display data over some time. S-curves (status vs. time) allow us to determine the periods of birthing, growth, and maturity. Here, it is assumed that the data used for modelling takes on a logistic shape to seek a curve that best fits the data.
In the current context, to analyze the life cycle of Hangzhou Metro, the operated kilometers by Hangzhou Metro are considered as the status and the consequent years as time to plot the S-curve. The required data was then collected from the annual reports published by Hangzhou Rail Transit over the years from 2013 to 2022.
The life-cycle model can be represented by the following equation:
S(t) = Smax/[1+exp(-b(t-ti)]
Where:
* S(t) is the status measure, (Passenger-km traveled) t is time (usually in years), ti is the inflection time (year in which 1/2 Smax is achieved), Smax is saturation status level, which is the maximum passenger volume that was recorded in the data. b is a coefficient to be estimated.

### Results and Interpretations

The data over the years was used to plot the S-curve and the forecasted model was obtained as follows:
Hangzhou Metro :
| Time | Operating mileage (KM) | Passenger volume(10,000 visits) | Predicted passenger volume(10,000 visits) |
| 2013 | 44.97 | 11680 | 21040 |
| 2014 | 66.27 | 14500 | 24645 |
| 2015 | 81.52 | 22300 | 28842 |
| 2016 | 81.52 | 26900 | 33717 |
| 2017 | 107.02 | 34000 | 39368 |
| 2018 | 117.72 | 53000 | 45902 |
| 2019 | 135.36 | 63000 | 53431 |
| 2020 | 306 | 58000 | 62078 |
| 2021 | 342 | 90000 | 71970 |
| 2022 | 516 | 96000 | 83231 |
The parameters and the model derived from the regression analysis on the above data are as follows:
* Final Market Size (S$_{max}$) =7000（millions visits）
* Slope (b) =0.169
* Inflection Time (t$_i$) =2034.2
* R$^2$ =0.971

## References

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