# Transportation Deployment Casebook/2024/Ferry service in Sydney
## Introduction of Ferries
### Overview and Characteristics

A ferry is a vessel commonly employed for transporting passengers and/or vehicles over a body of water. They come in a range of sizes and serve various purposes, from compact boats shuttling passengers across brief distances to expansive ships ferrying both passengers and vehicles over extended routes. Information about ferries and their role in public transportation systems in waterside cities and islands is provided. Connections between distant locations, like those across bodies of water such as the Mediterranean Sea, are often referred to as ferry services, with some accommodating vehicles.
It is believed that early humans utilised logs or other floating objects to traverse bodies of water, which is essentially the concept behind a ferry. Ferries have been utilised in various countries with waterways, and despite advancements in other modes of transportation, ferries have continued to operate in many countries for over two centuries.
According to historical records, the Juliana, established by John Stevens, is considered the first steam-powered ferry. It began operating between New York and Hoboken, New Jersey in 1811, challenging Livingston's monopoly in the area.
According to technology, one kind of vessel that is propelled by steam is the steamship, which is also referred to as a steamer at times. These vessels are often able to travel across seas and are propelled by steam engines that use paddlewheels or propellers to power their propulsion.

### Advantages of Ferry

Steamships were less reliant on wind patterns. Even when propelled by sail, shipping has always had an inherent advantage due to the comparatively effortless manoeuvrability of a large-diameter vessel across the water.

### Ferry Market in the world

Ferries operate on several routes worldwide, totalling hundreds of options. Europe has a high concentration of ferry services, particularly in two major markets: Northern Europe and the Baltic region, as well as across the Mediterranean. Greece's domestic ferry business, with its extensive transportation network connecting several islands, is among the biggest in the world. Japan relies heavily on ferries for transportation. The primary ferry market in North America is located along the Pacific border between the United States and Canada. Ferry operations in South America and Africa are quite restricted. There is ferry traffic in the Red Sea. The Philippines in Asia have significant ferry traffic due to their ferry-friendly archipelago. The ferry sector in Indonesia saw significant expansion initially, but has faced setbacks due to intense competition from budget airlines. Hong Kong and Singapore are significant markets for high-speed ferries. In China, there is a growing presence of modern ferries in the Bohai Sea.

## Invention, Market, and Policy of the Ferry
### Before the invention of the ferry

Paddlewheels were often used as the primary method of propulsion on these early ships. It was an efficient method of moving forward under perfect circumstances, but had significant disadvantages in other situations. The paddle-wheel functioned optimally at a certain depth, but any change in the ship's depth due to extra weight caused the paddle wheel to dive further, resulting in a significant decline in performance.

### Invention of ferry (Screw propulsion)

The crucial advancement that enabled ocean-going steamers to be practical was the transition from using paddle-wheels to using screw-propellers for propulsion. Steamships gained popularity rapidly due to the propeller's steady efficiency regardless of operating depth. Due to its lower size and bulk and total submersion, it was less susceptible to harm. The cylinders of an engine powering a paddle steamer are located below the shaft, which is above the waterline. The first screw propeller was installed on an early steam engine built by James Watt of Scotland at his Birmingham factory. This engine was a hydrodynamic screw, and Watt is generally acknowledged as having invented the technology.

### Early market development

The inadequate public transportation system in Sydney was a common gripe even back then. Despite plans for a four- or five-hour journey, the boat ride from Sydney to Parramatta often took as long as twelve hours, and in one documented case, it took just less than fourteen.
Port Jackson's deepwater harbour enabled Sydney to quickly establish itself as the primary seaport in the south-west Pacific area. As the colony expanded and the people migrated to the north, west, and south, coastal shipping emerged to provide the city with food and raw materials for its industries, as well as facilitate transhipment to other regions.
Suburbs like Balmain, Pyrmont, and Mortlake sprung up around the waterfront industry. These were located in the western suburbs of Sydney. Roughly 80% of Sydneysiders lived within a few minutes' walk of Sydney Harbour until the 1880s.
For the busiest times, Woolloomooloo Bay had 11 spaces, four of which were part of the wharf. Its main purpose was to let Australia's wool products leave the country.

### The role of policy

There was a need that boats be waterproof and have four oars so that anyone may lend a hand to the boatmen "if they pleased" when the government drafted laws in 1803. Additionally, the mast and sail had to be carried by the boats. This situation persisted until 1831. This government intervention eventually became the foundation of boat safety in the future The significance of water transport was important. The port and the rivers that flowed into it were early epicentres of activity, with private companies stepping up to the plate despite governmental regulations and limited resources. The role of the government in regulating transportation has persisted right up to the current day. Competition, however, did start to grow between government and privately operated transportation as well.

## Ferries in Sydney
### Birth (1831-1876)

Sydney's early colonisation by Europeans gave rise to the Sydney Harbour ferry service. Agricultural settlements along the Parramatta River were serviced by slow and irregular boats that ran from Sydney to Parramatta. The river was utilised by people, mail, and shops prior to the opening of the Sydney-Parramatta rail connection in 1855.
Ferry services continued to be vital for transportation along the Parramatta River even after the Sydney-Parramatta railway arrived in 1855 since they primarily serviced towns south of the harbour.
In order to sustain commerce, the Rose Hill Packet, dubbed the "first ferry," is established and serves as a bridge between Sydney Cove and the agricultural community of Parramatta. Round-trip travel on this ship required a week.
The first regularly scheduled cross-harbour rowboat in Sydney is run by former prisoner Billy Blue in the 1830s, from Dawes Point to Blues Point. When the oceangoing steamer Sophia Jane reaches Sydney in 1831, it is sometimes used for coastal commerce and towing to Newcastle on the Parramatta River.
In 1833, an Australian Conveyance firm was established. With a 12-horsepower (8.9-kW) engine, the Surprise was the first paddle steamer ever constructed in Australia, and it started providing regular trips to Parramatta in 1834. Boatmen used to use the poorly maintained route to Parramatta at that period.
As the tourist industry grows, Henry Gilbert Smith charters Brothers in 1855 to operate the first regularly scheduled service between Sydney and Manly.

### Growth (1876-1914)

* The growth of Sydney's ferry services:
The New Era and Birkenhead ferries were run by Thomas Henley in the 1890s, and the Balmain-Johnstons Bay region had a ferry boat boom around that time. Population growth also played a significant role in the growth of the ferry industry. Between 1851 and 1891, the population of Metropolitan Sydney surged from around 54,000 to 96,000 and 383,000, respectively. Also rising from 28% in 1851 to 34% in 1891 was Sydney's population share in New South Wales overall.
* The roles of the private and public sectors in the growth of the ferry industry:
During this time, the growth of the ferry business was influenced by both governmental and private factors. In terms of the private sector, it was in charge of providing ferry services and was essential to the development of the ferry sector. Improvements in the Balmain region were brought about by the large-scale engineering and ship repair activities that Thomas Sutcliffe Mort and Captain Rowntree started in Mort Bay. Employment prospects in the ferry industry were brought about by the migration of people into this region.
Regarding the public sector, steps were taken to guarantee that ferry services would be accessible and available as a means of public transit. When smooth transitions between trams and ferries were introduced, public transportation was used more often. Trams arrived at Erskine Street Wharf by the late 1880s, and the location became a centre for tram and ferry services that ran between Parramatta and Balmain.
* Policy for the growth of the ferry industry:
Toll fees can be utilized for the development funds of facilities, but high tolls can lead to dissatisfaction among users. Fare regulation is often implemented by authorities to prevent monopolistic practices and provide passengers with economical prices. Between New South Wales and Victoria, the Wymah ferry traverses the Hume Weir, travelling half a km in thirteen minutes. Farm vehicles and stock trucks are transported over the Weir on behalf of the nearby agricultural community, and it is directly managed by the Roads and Traffic Authority (RTA). At first, ferry users had to pay tolls, which varied depending on whether they were walking, riding in a cart, or on horseback. But when the ferry service was jointly supported by the State Governments of Victoria and New South Wales, as well as the Towong Shire Council, the toll system was eliminated in 1908. The number of people using ferries rose after tolls were eliminated.
Furthermore, the development of ports is essential for the advancement of the ferry industry. When the bubonic plague approached Sydney in 1900, the City Council faced criticism for its role in the public health emergency and the rat issue that made it worse. The Rocks and Millers Point slums were renovated by the state government, which also assumed control of the City Council's health authority. The newly formed Sydney Harbour Trust was given administration of these areas. This policy and social atmosphere led to the redevelopment of the docks.

### Maturity (1915-1946)

During the mature phase, the development entails the stabilization and establishment of the transportation mode or the scaling up of economies. Apart from the Manly ferry service and a few little launching services, Sydney Ferries Limited had a near-monopoly on the Sydney Harbour ferry services in the 1920s. It became the biggest ferry service in the world in terms of the number of vessels and utilisation rates in addition to purchasing the majority of other ferry companies and their assets.
The highest capacity ferries on Sydney Harbour, Kuttabul and Koompartoo, were put into operation by Sydney Ferries Limited in response to the increasing demand for cross-harbour ferry services to Milsons Point. Sydney Ferries met a historically high demand for cross-harbour services during the duration of the 1920s.
* Competition market:
Sydney Ferries Limited, which held a monopoly, faced competition from other modes of transportation. They stopped providing cross-Parramatta River services beyond Gladesville in 1928 as a result of competition from railways and roadways.
The opening of the Sydney Harbour Bridge took place on March 19, 1932. As a direct consequence of this, the number of passengers travelling every year dropped from 40 million to 14 million. The Milsons Point location was the only one where the Sydney Ferry service was available. Within the first two weeks after the bridge was opened, the vehicle ferry services that were formerly offered between Dawes Point and Blues Point, as well as between Bennelong Point and Milsons Point, were furthermore terminated.
* Attempts to adapt to the mode-changing markets:
The Manly was known for its limited width, which made ferry manoeuvres difficult and time-consuming to perform. In 1922, the first double-ended screw steam ferry, known as the Manly (II), was developed in order to solve this issue further. Located in Balmain, New South Wales, it was constructed by Young, Son & Fletcher. The voyage to Manly was completed in a record time of 22 minutes, which has not been exceeded by conventional ferries yet. This record was achieved in 1922.
The Lady Chelmsford was changed from steam power to diesel propulsion in order to modernise its fleet in conjunction with the introduction of diesel engines meant for ferries. By virtue of its two-stroke, five-cylinder engine, the Gardner diesel was capable of producing 190 horsepower (141 kW) and achieving a speed of 10.3 knots. The conversion of the other four "Lady Class" ferries, as well as Karingal and Karabah, took place in the 1930s. This was due to the fact that ferry firms were typically unable to buy new ships during the decades after the Bridge.
* Re-invention:
During this period, new services were introduced that went beyond simple transportation methods, offering features previously unseen at the time. In 1929, the Viceroy of India ordered the construction of ships that introduced a new degree of luxury and speed to the service experience. The first Peninsular and Orient Steam Navigation Company (P&O) ships to include indoor swimming pools were these particular vessels. The propulsion system for all three vessels consisted of enormous electric motors that were driven by turbo-electric steam turbines. As far as design, popularity, and service were concerned, the 'Strath' liners were superior than the Viceroy of India. They possessed the same degree of luxury and speed as the Viceroy of India, which was able to finish its journey from Britain to Bombay without any disruptions.

### Decline (1947-1975)

Since 1946, the Sydney ferry service began to decline. Ferry companies, lacking sufficient funds to purchase new vessels, planned to increase efficiency by converting ships to diesel propulsion. However, the conversion process incurred substantial costs, nearly leading the companies to bankruptcy. Attempts to persuade the government to take over the ferry service failed.
The failing Sydney Ferries Limited was acquired by the New South Wales government in 1951 for a sum of £25,000. The government purchased assets obtained by the Sydney Harbour Transport Commission, in addition to fifteen ferries and the Balmain plant. The Port Jackson & Manly Steamship Company had the operation and maintenance contract.
* Policy of government in 1951
As a response to Sydney Ferries Limited's decision to cease ferry operations, the government enacted the Sydney Harbour Transport Act (No. 11 of 1951). Under this legislation, Sydney Harbour Transport was established as a company with members including the Under Secretary of the Treasury, the Commissioner for Government Transport, and the President of the Maritime Services Board in July 1951. Although the board controlled the facilities and the boats, it did not handle the recruitment of staff or other operational duties. This minimal engagement approach revealed the government's lack of expertise in specialized matters when, by 1974, it was compelled to assume direct control and management of almost all Sydney ferries.

## Life Cycle of Ferries in Sydney
### Quantitative Analysis

Every transport system has a lifespan. This quantitative investigation quantitatively examined the full Sydney ferry life cycle. First comes growth, then maturity, then decline. Sydney ferry life-cycle phases are determined by yearly patronage statistics. The data comes from the Bureau of Infrastructure and Transport Research Economics (1900–2013) and New South Whale Government Annual Reports (2013–2023)
. However, due to limited access to data on passenger usage in the 1800s, analysis was conducted starting from the 1900s.
Utilising the observed data, a three-parameter logistic function was estimated. The accuracy of the function, which models passenger numbers, can be assessed by plotting it against the observed data.
* The function of logistics is:
S(t) = S$_{max}$/[1+exp(-b(t-t$_i$)],
S(t) = State Measurement (in units of individual passengers on board)
t = time (in years)，
t$_0$ = inflection point time (the year in which half of S max is obtained)，
S$_{max}$ = saturation level (maximum annual passenger capacity of U.S. airliner)，
b = the coefficient to be estimated.
* Coefficient b was determined using single variable linear regression in a model of the form:
Y = bX + c
where:
Y=ln(Passengers/(S$_{max}$-Passengers))
X=Year

### Parameters

To fit the model as closely as feasible (R-squared near to 1), several S$_{max}$ were used for the tests, and the final S$_{max}$ value was obtained by narrowing down the range one at a time from a large range of tests and a number of tests to identify the real S$_{max}$ boundary.

#### Regression Statistics Results

Regression Statistics Results :
| 1900-2022 | | 1900-1914 | | 1915-1946 | | 1947-1975 | | 1976-1990 | | 1991-2022 | |
| S(Max) (Million) | 75 | S(Max) (Million) | 52 | S(Max) (Million) | 85 | S(Max) (Million) | 80 | S(Max) (Million) | 80 | S(Max) (Million) | 50 |
| b | -0.0152229583114186 | b | 0.0736979726812061 | b | -0.0268845805870114 | b | -0.02553913755079 | b | 0.0520770398967628 | b | -0.0257977142887259 |
| T_i | 1891.5802540259 | T_i | 1907.99324007325 | T_i | 1916.57635850391 | T_i | 1902.96124539449 | T_i | 2012.54547070763 | T_i | 1963.94249494722 |
| Multiple R | 0.683235607361857 | Multiple R | 0.797870716246689 | Multiple R | 0.515300985182576 | Multiple R | 0.807034519833202 | Multiple R | 0.943062012962958 | Multiple R | 0.235257540196296 |
| R Square | 0.466810895167125 | R Square | 0.636597679844004 | R Square | 0.265535105330133 | R Square | 0.651304716202407 | R Square | 0.889365960293747 | R Square | Example |
| Adjusted R Square | Example | Adjusted R Square | Example | Adjusted R Square | Example | Adjusted R Square | Example | Adjusted R Square | Example | Adjusted R Square | 0.0553461102192118 |
| Standard Error | 5.62238282781825 | Standard Error | 2.63743844752949 | Standard Error | 4.47303329123389 | Standard Error | 1.5826351344886 | Standard Error | 0.939370497546718 | Standard Error | 0.680481297933914 |
| Observations | 122 | Observations | 15 | Observations | 32 | Observations | 29 | Observations | 15 | Observations | 31 |

#### Data Results
### Analysis
#### 1900-2022 (Total)

Figure 2 depicts the Sydney ferry passenger real data and predicted passenger data from 1900 to 2022. Although having data from 1830 would have provided a clearer life cycle, the analysis proceeded based on the available data. As shown in Figure 1, there are two peak points in the lifecycle of the ferry until 2022. The first peak occurred in 1931 with 45 million passengers, followed by a sharp decline in 1932 due to the opening of the Harbour Bridge. Following a period of decline after 1950 due to the increasing use of public transportation and private cars, there was a resurgence in the 1970s when the government took over ferry services, accompanied by investments. However, passenger numbers have since stabilized. The second peak drop occurred in 2020, with a drastic drop to 1 million passengers, attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019. While there has been a recovery since passenger numbers have not surpassed those seen in the early 1900s. The regression results for the period from 1900 to 2022 yielded an R-square of 0.468, indicating low fitness of the regression model, and a standard deviation of 5.6, suggesting significant short-term fluctuations in passenger numbers. Therefore, the analysis proceeded by dividing the data into segments.

#### 1900-1914 (Growth)

Figure 3 depicts the ferry passenger real data and predicts passenger data from 1900 to 1914. The positive value of "b" indicates a positive slope, and the R-square value has significantly increased to 0.636 compared to the previous total graph (1900 to 2022). The standard error has also decreased significantly to 2.6. While there are differences between the curve graphs of the predicted and actual data, the trend direction can still be discerned, and overall improvement is observed compared to the data for the entire period (Figure 1). Given the historical context, ferry services in Sydney in the early 1900s remained crucial public transportation amid rapid population growth, as indicated by the data portraying a phase of growth.

#### 1915-1946 (Maturity)

Figure 4 illustrates the ferry passenger data and predicted passenger data from 1915 to 1946. The value of "b" is -0.026, indicating a negative slope, and the R-square value has sharply declined to 0.265, indicating a significant decrease in the fitness of the regression model. The standard error has also increased significantly to 4.7. In 1931, ferry usage peaked at 520,000 passengers, but in 1932, with the opening of the Harbour Bridge, ferry usage plummeted to 200,000 passengers. While there was some recovery until 1946, considering the negative value of "b" during this period, it can be inferred that this was a phase of maturity, marked by reaching the peak followed by a low-growth phase.

#### 1947-1975 (Decline)

Figure 5 illustrates the ferry passenger data and predicted passenger data from 1946 to 1975. The value of "b" is -0.025, indicating a negative slope, and the R-square value has increased again to 0.65, indicating an improvement in the fitness of the regression model. The standard error has also significantly decreased to 1.58. From the late 1940s on, many ferry services were either mobilized for the war effort, reduced, or suspended due to the difficulties of the Depression and the War. Despite attempts to transition to diesel engines in the 1950s and the introduction of premium services like the Manly III, which significantly reduced travel time, demand struggled to recover. In the 1960s, services to Neutral Bay, Cremorne, and Mosman experienced modest growth alongside harbor housing developments in the area, leading to a slight increase in passenger demand. Despite efficiency improvements through the introduction of new technologies and fast premium services, ferry demand decreased from 1946 to 1975. This period can be considered a phase of decline.

#### 1976-present (Re-growth)

Figure 6 depicts the ferry passenger data and predicted passenger data from 1976 to 1990. The value of "b" has shifted back to positive at 0.052, and the R-square value has significantly increased to 0.88, making it the most accurate regression model among all. The standard error has also decreased substantially to 0.938, indicating a close match between the graphs.
During the 1980s, the inaugural Great Ferry Race was held as part of the Festival of Sydney, becoming an annual event since then, now held on Australia Day. Additionally, the introduction of the new "Freshwater-class" Manly ferries, the largest ferries to run on the harbor, took place during this period. This period can be viewed as a phase of resurgence, marked by government organizational changes, new events, and the introduction of modernized ferries.

#### 1991-2022 (Stability)

Figure 7 illustrates the ferry passenger data and predicted passenger data from 1991 to 2022. The value of "b" has shifted back to negative at 0.025, and the R-square value has significantly decreased to 0.05, making it the lowest among all regression models. The standard error, however, was the lowest at 0.68, despite the low R-square value. This discrepancy can be attributed to the sharp decline in 2020 due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The demand for ferries experienced a drastic decline due to the effects of the pandemic, with a gradual recovery in demand observed after 2022. However, the demand has stabilized at a consistent level with slight fluctuations, indicating a phase of stability and a minor decline post-pandemic.

### Conclusion

Figure 8 illustrates the phase of the lifecycle of Sydney ferries obtained through regression analysis, evaluating the accuracy of actual versus predicted data through regression analysis. In some cases, analyzing the entire duration resulted in a significant decrease in the R-square value. However, segmenting the data over different periods helped improve this. One limitation was the inability to include the "birth" phase due to restricted access to Sydney ferry data. If more data becomes available in the future, it will be necessary to revisit the analysis and include this phase.

## References

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