# Infrastructure Past, Present, and Future Casebook/Shinkansen High Speed Rail

Shinkansen High Speed Rail
This casebook is a case study on the Shinkansen by Alani Hall, Thomas Cross, Dorothy Raymond, and Tyler Mooney as part of the Infrastructure Past, Present and Future: GOVT 490-004 (Synthesis Seminar for Policy & Government) / CEIE 499-001 (Special Topics in Civil Engineering) Fall 2021 course at George Mason University's Schar School of Policy and Government and the Volgenau School of Engineering Sid and Reva Dewberry Department of Civil, Environmental, and Infrastructure Engineering. Modeled after the Transportation Systems Casebook. Under the instruction of Prof. Jonathan Gifford.

## Summary

The Shinkansen is a Japanese high-speed train system. It is operated by four companies: East Japan Railway Company (JR East), West Japan Railway Company (JR West), Central Japan Railway Company (JR Central), and Japan Railways Group (JR East) (Sato et al., 1). The Tokaido Shinkansen route between Tokyo and Osaka was the first Shinkansen line to open in 1964 (Sato et al., 1). The Shinkansen is well-known for its dependability, timeliness, and efficiency. The system is so reliable that bullet train delays of more than five minutes are uncommon. Furthermore, Shinkansen has had a tremendous environmental impact by reducing traffic congestion and pollution. The Shinkansen runs on dedicated tracks and can achieve speeds of up to 320 km/h (200 mph), making it one of the world's fastest train systems (Nonaka et al., 4). There are 22 Shinkansen lines in service as of March 2015, with intentions to build more in the future. The Shinkansen has been an enormous success, transporting over 10 billion people since its inception and becoming an integral part of Japanese culture and society (Smil, par 25).
The high-speed rail system has aided in connecting various sections of the country, making travel and commuting more accessible and faster for individuals. The Shinkansen has also received accolades for its safety record, with no fatal accidents happening in its more than 50 years of service. The Shinkansen's achievement has prompted other countries to consider developing their high-speed rail lines. China has just begun running its high-speed rail lines, and other nations, such as South Korea and Taiwan, are preparing to build their own. The Shinkansen is still an essential aspect of Japanese culture and civilization, and it will undoubtedly play a crucial role in the country's transportation system for many years (Yee et al., 6).

## Timeline of Events
### Pre Construction

1872, October 14th- Japan’s first railway opens linking Tokyo’s Shimbashi District and the port city of Yokohama.
1906: The government of Imperial Japan enacts the Railway Nationalization Act of 1906. All railways are nationalized and consolidated under the Railway Board of the state Ministry of Transport over the course of the year.
1949, June 1st: Under Allied occupation and General Douglas MacArthur recommendations Japan’s government reorganizes all state owned railways into the Japanese National Railways (JNR) public corporation. The company remained semi-autonomous under the government of Japan.

### Development & Construction of The First Shinkansen Line

1957, May: The first proposals of the Shinkansen are revealed at a public lecture hosted by the JNR-owned Railway Technical Research Institute (RTRI).
1958, December: The government of Japan approves the proposal of the first Shinkansen line, The Tokaido, linking Tokyo and Osako. The project is headed by Shinji Sogo, president of JNR and Hideo Shima, chief engineer.
1959, April 20th: Work begins on the Tokaido Line, with the deadline set to open in 5 years time.
1963: Due to cost overruns both Shinji Sogo and Hideo Shima resign from their respective positions.
1964, October 1st: The Shinkansen Tokaido line is opened, marking the first line of the Shinkansen railway network.

### Expansions & Operations To Current Day

1969: Japan’s Government Cabinet approves the 1969 Second Comprehensive National Development Plan to expand the Shinkansen network by 7,200 km.
1970 May: Nationwide Shinkansen Railway Development Law passed by The Cabinet of Japan.
1972, March: San'yo Shinkansen (Shin-Osaka-Okayama line) opens to the public.
1973: Five additional Shinkansen lines and expansions are approved the Tohoku (Morioka–Shin-Aomori line), Hokkaido, Hokuriku, Kyushu (Kagoshima route), and Kyushu (Nagasaki route) lines.
1975, March: San'yo Shinkansen (Okayama-Hakata line) opens to the public.
1982, June: Tohoku Shinkan (Omiya-Morioka line) opens to the public.
1982, July: The Ad Hoc Commission on Administrative Reform recommends suspending construction of new Shinkansen lines due to JNR’s worsening financial situation.
1982, September: The Cabinet of Japan suspends Shinkansen development based on the Commission's findings.
1982, November: Joetsu Shinkansen (Omiya-Niigata line) opens to the public.
1985, March: Tohoku Shinkansen (Ueno-Omiya line) opens to the public.
1987, January: Cabinet of Japan lifts freeze on building new rail lines due to support of the public for Shinkansen development.
1987, April: Due to rising issues of mismanagement and debt, JNR is divided into 6 separate entities. JR Central, JR East and JR West, JR Kyushu, JR Shikoku and JR Hokkaido.
1988, March: Tsugara-Kaikyo Line opens to the public.
1988, April: Seto Ohasi Bridge opens, connecting Honshu to Shikoku, linking all four main Japanese islands by rail.
1991, June: Tohoku Shinkansen (Tokyo-Ueno line) opens to the public.
1997, October: Hokuriku Shinkansen (Tokyo-Nagano line) opens to the public.
2002, December: Tohoku Shinkansen (Morioka-Hachinohe line) opens to the public.
2004, March: Kyushu Shinkansen (Shin-Yatsushiro-Kagoshima-Chuo line) opens to the public.
2010, December: Tohoku Shinkansen (Tokyo-Shin-Aomori line) opens to the public.
2015, March: Hokuriku Shinkansen (Takasaki-Kanazawa line) opens to the public.
2016, March: Hokkaido Shinkansen (Shin-Aomori to Shin-Hakodate-Hokuto line) opens to the public.
2022, September: Nishi Kyushu Shinkansen (Takeo Onsen/Nagasaki line) opens to the public.

## Narrative
### The Beginnings of Railroad Development In Japan

During the Meiji Period (1868-1912) Imperial Japan began the process of rapid industrialization to face the competition of its western rivals. As part of this process the need for a comprehensive transportation system to link the country was realized. However Japan's geography made this difficult. Composed of the four main islands of Honshu, Hokkaido, Kyushu, and Shikoku Japan stretches 2,000 km of primarily mountainous (73%) terrain with interspaced heavy forest. The first railway in Japan opened on the 14th of October 1872, connecting the cities of Tokyo and Yokohama. To deal with the tight restraints of the mountainous terrain Japanese railways adopted the narrow gauge (3'/6" width) rail track that was better adapted to tighter turns than comparatively wider gauges.

### The First Shinkansen

Post World War II Japan was faced with the issues of upgrading old infrastructure as well as rebuilding after the destruction of Allied bombings. In 1957 the Government of Japan began hearings to decide the course of Japanese infrastructure development on the aging Tokiado line, which formed the backbone of Japanese transportation.
There was a growing thought in Japan among transportation engineers and politicians that rail transportation was outdated and would soon be replaced by air and highway transportation technologies favored by western countries. However the president of JNR, Shinji Sogo, and Hideo Shima, chief engineer of JNR, believed that rail technology could be improved upon and be a viable competitor. The Railway Transpiration Research Institute (A think tank of JNR) published a proposal in 1957 that they could create a new type of rail transportation, using innovative technologies such as computer controlled cabins, new types of electrified tracks, and aerodynamically designed trains. This proposal stated that this new train could make the 550km trip from Tokyo and Osaka in under three hours by a fully electric train.
In 1958 the Government of Japan accepted the plans of the JNR to construct this first Shinkansen line they proposed. Work was scheduled to take 5 years with a budget of 200 million yen, less than half of the final cost. The budget was intentionally underbid to persuade the government to accept the plan, and in 1963 both Shinji Sogo and Hideo Shima resigned from their positions in the JNR once the budget shortfalls were discovered. In 1964 the Tokaido Shinkansen opened, cutting down transit time from Tokyo to Osaka from 6 hours to 3 as promised by the 1957 proposal.The train line was 515 km long and ran with an initial top speed of 210 km/hr. The track was a fully electrified standard gauge rail (4'/8.5" width) with a catenary wire system supplying power of 25,000 V. To increase power efficiently each train car of the Shinkansen is electrified instead of having a single engine pulling the length of cars.
The line was initially scheduled for 60 departures a day, with 2 Series 0 trains running concurrently; one train stopped at only major stations while stopped at every station . The line proved to be extremely popular and served its 100 millionth passenger only 2 years after its initial opening. This growing popularity spurred the JNR and Japanese Government to increase the frequency of departures by adding new train engines as well as commissioning the creation of new rail lines to link other cities into the system.

### Future Developments

In 1969 the Second Comprehensive National Development Plan was created, tasking the JNR to expand its network across Japan with a combined track length of 7,200 km. Work progressed over the next 2 decades though the JNR begins to face issues with growing debt and the inability to fulfill the requirements of the National Development Plan. In 1987 JNR was fully privatized and divided into the sperate companies of JR Central, JR East and JR West, JR Kyushu, JR Shikoku and JR Hokkaido. Since this time these companies have expanded the railways, created new models of railcar, and improved the reliability and safety records of the Shinkansen. Currently there are eight separate rail lines crossing Japan, with more being built every year to meet the increased demand of Japan's economy and people. These routes are the Tokaido, San'yo, Tohoku, Joestu, Hokuriku, Kyushu, Nishi Kyushu, and Hokkaido.

## Key Actors and Institutions
### Public Sector Actors and Institutions

- Japan National Railways

### Private Sector Actors and Institutions

- East Japan Railway Company
- Central Japan Railway Company
- West Japan Railway Company
- Japan Railways Group (Sato et al., 1)

## Funding & Financing

The Shinkansen was initially built and operated by Japanese National Railways (JNR), a state-owned railway company. JNR was privatized in 1987, and the Shinkansen network was divided among the new private railway companies. The government continues to invest in the Shinkansen, with the MLIT providing funding for new lines and stations. However, the private sector also plays a significant role in financing the Shinkansen, with the different railway companies investing their resources into the network.
The Shinkansen is operated by Japan Railways Group (JR Group), a private company created in 1987 when the Japanese National Railways were privatized (Tomikawa et al., par 1). The Japanese government owns the JR Group and private investors. The government owns approximately 50% of the company, with private institutional and individual investors owning the remaining shares. The Japan Railways Group (JR Group) includes Central Japan Railway Company (JR Central), East Japan Railway Company (JR East), West Japan Railway Company (JR West), and South West Japan Railway Company (JR-West) (Sato et al., 1). The government also owns a majority stake in JR Central and JR East, which operate the Tokaido and Tohoku Shinkansen lines (Ali and Eliasson, 9). The remaining Shinkansen operators are privately owned. The Shinkansen is a profitable venture.
The Shinkansen is financed mostly through government investment and subsidies. Fare revenue only covers a small portion of the operating costs, with the rest coming from other sources such as advertising and leasing office space in Shinkansen stations. For instance, an advertiser may pay to have their product featured on Shinkansen's website or in its app. In exchange for this exposure, the advertiser agrees to pay a certain amount of money to Shinkansen. Shinkansen is also financed through sponsorships whereby a company may agree to sponsor Shinkansen in exchange for having their logo displayed on the website or app or in other marketing materials. The Shinkansen is a for-profit enterprise, with operating costs such as staff salaries, maintenance, and energy consumption offset by fare revenue. In the 2018 fiscal year, the four Shinkansen operators generated a combined operating profit of ¥206.8 billion (US$1.9 billion). This was up from ¥138.1 billion (US$1.3 billion) in the previous fiscal year. Ridership on the Shinkansen has been steadily increasing, reaching a record high of 151 million passengers in the 2018 fiscal year (Sato et al., 2). Fares have also been rising, resulting in increased revenue for the operators.
However, the Japanese government provides significant financial support for the construction and operation of the Shinkansen through subsidies and low-interest loans. The rail service subsidies amounted to over ¥700 billion (US$6.6 billion) in 2019 (Baruya 23). This subsidy covers a portion of the operating and maintenance costs, allowing the Shinkansen to function as a for-profit venture. Ticket prices are set to cover the remaining costs, with fares generally ranging from ¥10,000 (US$92) to ¥20,000 (US$184) for a one-way trip (Chou et al. 1). For instance, the government subsidizes JR East to the tune of ¥80 billion (around US$760 million) annually. This subsidy covers around a third of JR East's operating costs and allows the company to keep fares low. In addition, the government has invested billions of yen in constructing new Shinkansen lines, such as the Hokkaido Shinkansen and the Kyushu Shinkansen. The cost of building the new maglev line between Tokyo and Nagoya is estimated to be 9 trillion yen (around 80 billion USD). The Japanese government provides about 5 trillion yen (approximately 45 billion USD) of this funding, with the private sector raising the remaining 4 trillion yen (around 35 billion USD) (Chou et al. 1).

## Institutional Arrangements

As the 1940s were coming to an end, development of transportation was at the forefront in the national agenda. Japan National Railways was the initial, government-led institution to tackle transportation in the region, during this era. However, an initiative to improve management, operation, and financing arose as these areas lacked in performance under this administration. These issues along with the additional need for global innovation kickstarted the privatization of the railway business in Japan in 1987. Japan National Railways was soon dissolved as private companies took on the reforms that called for progression.
When railway transportation went from the public sector to the private sector in 1987, the Joetsu Shinkansen line, Tohoku Shinkansen line, Tokaido Shinkansen line, and Sanyo Shinkansen line were affected. The East Japan Railway Company acquired the Joetsu and Tohoku lines. The Central Japan Railway Company acquired the Tokaido line. The West Japan Railway Company acquired the Sanyo line.
Eleven private companies took on the responsibility to reform railway transportation in Japan; however, the initial four private entities have significant influence. Notably, the Central Japan Railway Company operates and maintains the Tokaido Shinkansen that travels through the capital city, Tokyo.
The Central Japan Railway Company was among the private companies to partake in railway business reform in 1987. It is noted the April 1, 1987, marked its official creation. The company is keen on ensuring safety and reliability is maintained on the Tokaido Shinkansen and the Chuo Shinkansen. Note, the Tokaido Shinkansen and the Chuo Shinkansen in the areas of Osaka, Nagoya, and Tokyo—transportation hubs. The ESG management style is how the Central Japan Railway Company seeks to maintain and progress travel in these important areas. This approach incorporates economic activities that facilitate profit and encourages growth in society. Safety, improved services, efficiency, environmental consideration, and investment allows for better infrastructure, modernization, and support for local businesses.

## Lessons Learned/Takeaways
### Key Technological Advancements

Automatic Train Control was an innovation that prevent collision. The third edition Automatic Train Control system consists of a brake control system. It is also known as the ATC-NS. The system can apply the appropriate amount of brake stoppage. Tokaido Shinkansen was the first line to experience the Automatic Train Control system. Since the 1960s, the advancement in this system grew. The 1980s brought additional capabilities with a monitoring system. The monitoring system was crucial in strengthening the communications between the train and system.
The superconducting maglev system supports how the Shinkansen moves along. Its humble beginnings in 1990 would push this technology into its current use and existence. This system uses magnetic force to hover the train above the track. The coils on the track and the superconducting magnet on the train create this affect. The affects of using this system go further. The affects extend to the Shinkansen's ability to handle high speeds, natural disasters, and provide safe service. Also, the future superconducting maglev system is evident as the new Series L0 version is being tested. These tests suggest it could extend to commercial use.

#### Speed

The Shinkansen's high-speed trains, or bullet trains, are able to achieve a top speed of 320km/hr.
The Shinkansen's SC Maglev exceeded two previous records for rail vehicles in 2015, achieving a top speed of 603km/hr.

#### Reliability & Safety

The Shinkansen is well known for holding an impressive safety record, in the 58 years since the debut of its Tōkaidō line there has been not a single reported on board passenger fatality caused by train derailment or collision, even during occurrences of train derailment caused by frequent earthquakes and other natural disasters, a record that the government and JRC boasts.
Despite this record, there have been numerous casualties involving the Shinkansen trains in the nearly six decades of operations, just not caused by train derailment or collision. Shinkansen passenger accidents have occurred occasionally in its years of operations such as injuries from closing doors and fatalities, reported by police authorities as suicides, with a recent September 2022 accident of an individual who broke on to the tracks at Toyohashi Station of the Tokaido Shinkansen line who was killed by the passing Nozomi No. 229 train, normal operations continued later that day following a temporary suspension.
Despite the very rare freak accidents and the slightly more common derailments due to an earthquake and blizzard conditions, the Shinkansen remains a remarkably safe for passengers and is a popular mode of transportation with a ridership that has now reached 1 million passengers per day. The Shinkansen is so reliable that the average delay time is 0.9 minutes, this number includes delays caused by natural disasters. The Shinkansen is able to be so punctial, despite Japan's frequent earthquakes and typhoons, because of its earthquake warning systems that allows trains to stop safely; the trains are also supported with many specially designed high-speed rail tracks, automatic train control (ATC), and automated train schedule management, that ensure that the Shinkansen trains always run on time.

### Impacts
#### Economic

Prior to the COVID-19 global pandemic in 2019, the entire Shinkansen network saw a total passenger ridership of 574 million passengers during 2018. That same year, the Shinkansen accumulated approximately ¥2,861.4 trillion in combined operating and transport revenues. Revenues and ridership began to dip during 2020 and would decrease sharply the following year as a result of Japan's COVID-19 policies limiting the public's travel. Despite this, the Shinkansen is projected to make ¥2,097.0 trillion in combined operating and transport revenues.
Prior to the privatization and break-up of the Japanese National Railways (JNR) in 1987, the Shinkansen had four operating lines: the Tōkaidō Shinkansen, the San'yō Shinkansen, the Tōhoku Shinkansen and the Jōetsu Shinkansen. Japan's progress in industrializing and infrastructure development is reflected in the four early lines and in the prefectures these lines operated in; their municipal finances, for those cities with a shinkansen station saw an increase of about 155% between 1980 and 1993, compared to the national average of about 110% and 75% increases for those cities near the Tohoku Shinkansen without a shinkansen. This period is important as the effects of Japan's industrialization, and in particular the Shinkansen's development, become clearer and show an apparent gap that begins to grow between cities with shinkansen stations and cities without. Japan's second largest city, Yokohama, was even affected greatly just from the fastest train on the line, Nozomi, not stopping here. Just by missing out on having a stop on an existing line it hindered further investment in the city and discouraged more people from moving to Yokohama; the remedy this the Prefectural Governor suggested introducing a ¥100 tax on non-stopping services that would have raised an estimated ¥3.1 billion a year for the area.
After the privatization and break-up of the Japanese National Railways (JNR), the Nationwide Shinkansen Development Law was developed to expand the Shinkansen network to 7,000km across Japan. The 7,000km network was not achievable at the time due to Oil Crisis of the 1970s, requiring plans for expansion to be dialed down to 3,500km. The economic issues regarding cities with shinkansen stations and those without was also present during the network's further expansions continuing into the 2000s. The city of Komoro, which lost out to the city of Saku for a Shinkansen location, saw a rapid decrease in economic activity in the city where the occupancy rate of shops in the city was once 85% in 1992 had collapsed to just 46% by 2003. Tourist and visitor numbers dropped by over 500,000 per year, causing Komoro's tourism industry shift to an emphasis on day-trips to the city rather than longer stays; this continued decline in economic activity due to being deprived of access concerned city officials that one day Komoro will effectively soon cease to exist. For Komoro, like many other cities and prefectures, conventional train service would eventually terminate and be replaced by bus services and increased road transport, a problem for a nation where its railway system carries billions of passengers a year and limited space for road infrastructure.
In contrast, the Shinkansen provides a great economic boost for cities and prefectures that its network connects to. Presently, cities with the Shinkansen's high-speed rail stations have 22% higher growth than cities without a high-speed rail. The Shinkansen provides for connectivity between urban and suburban areas allowing for increases in population, employment, and other economic activity for places with Shinkansen stations. The presence of the high-speed rail is also linked to the increase in school enrollment, as well as education quality. Cities with Shinkansen high-speed rail stations have seen a 16-34% higher growth in employment compared to cities without; the high-speed rail network has noticeably increased job opportunities for women as well.

#### Environment

Transportation by rail is the most environment-friendly mode of transportation as trains produce one-ninth of the CO2 emissions made by automobiles and one-sixth of the CO2 emissions produced by airplanes.
The Shinkansen also connects to several airports or have express trains where people can transfer over to the Shinkansen, these rail connections to the Shinkansen network are important to cutting pollution at airports as a large portion of pollution at airports is in fact created by cars traveling to and from the airport rather than by the airplanes.

#### Social

Although economic expansionism was a strong motivator behind the development of the Shinkansen, political and social factors where also important drivers behind the Shinkansen’s development and expansion. These political and social motivators is visually represented when comparing the Shinkansen’s rail map to Japan’s other conventional lines; these conventional lines have the noticeable characteristic of being ‘zigzagged from one town to another or looped in a huge half-circle through several towns' instead of more logically connecting Japan’s urban areas. This was caused by the expansion of the 1922 Railway Construction Law that further facilitated the political process by which politicians sought out favoritism or other means that would bring railways to particular constituencies, this indirectly sparked a practice of dispersion by railways that would follow into the development of the Shinkansen network.

### High Speed Rail Projects Across The Globe

The Shinkansen’s high-speed rail, or bullet train, technology have already successfully contracted, exported, developed, and established in several countries outside of Japan. These countries that have gained and established high-speed rail systems based upon the Shinkansen are Taiwan, China, and the United Kingdom.
Two more counties are in the process of their respective infrastructure development projects to import the Shinkansen’s technology to establish their own respective high-speed rail system for the first time; these two counties being India and the United States.
India is in the process of developing the Mumbai-Ahmedabad high-speed rail corridor that has seen a longstanding impasse due to costs of acquiring certain critical components from Japan, despite the Japan International Cooperation Agency covering 80% of the costs with a soft loan to India.
The project in the United States, located in Texas to construct a Dallas-Houston bullet train developed by the Texas Central High-Speed Railway company, has also suffered from longstanding delays, yet due to persistent leadership abandonment and slow land acquisition.

## Discussion Questions

1. The Shinkansen line has been in continuous development since the 1960's with significant expenditure of both economic and political capital. Do you think it’s possible for America to create a similar high speed rail in this current political and economic climate?
2. Shinji Sogō pushed back against his contemporaries who thought that highways and airlines would soon make railways obsolete. What are your thoughts on this? Does a country need to pick a path between highways and railways? Or can they exist together?
3. Currently there is a political debate over which direction America should take its next stage of infrastructure development. If trains and railed transportation are adopted what are some potential issues you could imagine arising as the US transitions away from airlines and highways.

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