# Transportation Deployment Casebook/2014/Tianjin Metro
## Qualitative Analysis
### Brief Introduction of Tianjin Metro

Tianjin Metro is the urban rail transport system of Tianjin Province in China. It is the second city to have a subway system, only later than Beijing. The Construction of Tianjin Metro began on April 7th, 1970, and began its operation on January 10th, 1976. This subway program used to stop because of capital limitation. The construction restarted in year 1981, and opened on December 28th, 1984. On October 9th, 2001, Tianjin Metro stopped operation and the modification of existing lines began. The modification program official began on November 21st, 2002, and the system reopened on December 28th, 2005. Up to October, 2013, 4 lines (Line 1, Line 2, Line 3, and Line 9) and 85 stations have been put into use. Line 1, Line 2, and Line 3 serve the central urban area and 4 ring districts of Tianjin, and Line 9 connects the central urban area and Binhai New Area. Now, the total mileage of Tianjin Metro is 135 kilometers. It will reach 240 kilometers in recent planning and 1380 kilometers in long-term planning. On December 24th, 2013, the passenger daily volume exceeded 1 million for the first time and reached 102,000, among which the volume of 88,500 passengers for Line 1, No.2, and No.3, and 13,500 passengers for Line 9.
FIGURE 1 Tianjin Metro Network

### Birth of Tianjin Metro
#### Development of Tianjin Metro in Birth Stage

The history dates back to Tianjin Metro 1970s. Tianjin Metro closely follows the construction of Beijing Metro. The timeline of the main points in the development of Tianjin Metro in Birth Stage is as follows.
* In 1970, Tianjin Metro construction began.
* In February, 1976, a 3.6-kilometer line construction completed, and 4 stations (Xinhualu Station, Yingkoudao Station, Dianbaodalou Station and Haiguangsi Station) were opened; first trial operation achieved.
* In 1976, the construction of Tianjin Metro was suspended due to capital limitation
* In 1979, the construction of Tianjin Metro restarted without influencing the operation of the first 4 stations. This time, the line extended 1.6 kilometers to the north on the basis of existing 3.6 kilometers, and Erweilu Station and Xinanjiao Station opened.
* In 1980, the second trail operation achieved, and the construction stopped again at the end of this year.
* In 1984, after the third extension, Xibeijiao Station and Xizhan Station opened and the total mileage of Tianjin Metro reached 7.4 kilometers. On December 28th of the same year, first trail operation of all existing network achieved.
* On October 9th, 2001, operation of all existing lines of Tianjin Metro stopped, and modification construction began.
* On November 25th, 2002, existing line modification program of Tianjin Metro, namely the Tianjin Metro Line 1 Program, began, and was completed on December 28th, 2005. On June 12th, 2006, the line officially reopened and trail operation was achieved.

#### Policy and Market in Birth Stage

The rudiment of Tianjin Metro is a civil air-defense program of Tianjin Province. However, at that time, the 1970s, China implemented policy to suspend or slower large construction programs due to unadvanced construction equipment and technology condition and limited capital; adding that the Tangshan Earthquake gave a hard hit to the economy, Tianjin Metro program was once fully suspended. During this time, although the ticket price of Tianjin Metro increased from the initial price 0.05 yuan to 0.15 yuan, 0.25 yuan, 0.3yuan, and finally 1 yuan, it’s always the cheapest ticket price in China; the government had subsidy for it. However, as the concentration of Tianjin Metro was on civil air-defense at the beginning, the market was depressed in its birth stage. One reason is its short travel distance, which resulted in poor accessibility. The other is that the limited space and capacity for Metro operation in stations.

### Growth of Tianjin Metro

After stepped into 21th Century, more developed national conditions and policies to foster economy development in China has brought new life to Tianjin Metro. On October 9th, 2001, operation of all existing lines of Tianjin Metro stopped, and modification construction began. On November 25th, 2002, existing line modification program of Tianjin Metro, namely the Tianjin Metro Line 1 Program, began, and was completed on December 28th, 2005. On June 12th, 2006, the line officially reopened and trail operation was achieved. After this modification program, the total travel distance of Line 1 reached 26.188 kilometers and 22 stations has been establishes. Xinhualu Station, on station on the former line 1, has been permanently closed. Line 2 construction began in 2006, and Line 3 construction followed in 2007. In 2012, both west segment and east segment of Line 2 achieved trail operation, and Line 3 ran the full line trail operation in the same year. On August 28th, 2013, the Jianguodao Station opened, indicating that the construction of the whole Line 2 completed. Besides, construction of Line 5 and Line 6 began in 2012, and these two lines are estimated to open in 2016.

#### Policy Support and Technology Innovation in Growth Stage
##### Economic Stimulus Policy and Building Booms

China has stepped into rapid development stage in 21st Century. Tianjin is one of the four municipalities in China and it is certain a key city of development. As transportation is the fundamental infrastructure, it’s always the primary aspect to develop. China government implemented “4 Trillion Economic Stimulus Plan” during year 2005 to 2010. To respond this plan, Tianjin government made transportation and municipal facility construction plans public in 2008. With the great technology and capital support, Tianjin largely increased the input to important transportation infrastructure like rails, roads, the airport, etc. In 2009, construction of existing Line 2, Line 3, and Line 9 was accelerated, and construction of new lines (Line 4, Line 5, and Line 6) began. Tianjin Metro develops rapidly and has the rudiment of a “global Metro city”.

##### Technology Innovation and New-type Financial Mode

Except for capital support from the government, technology is another important factor for the rapid development of Tianjin Metro. Many new technology and equipment abroad has been introduced into the construction of Tianjin Metro; things like deep excavation and shield design, energy-saving equipment, and investment control measures have been largely improved. The high cost of subway construction is a common difficulty for urban rail system development. Tianjin learned from the subway financing modes of Europe, Japan and Hongkong, and improvising according to its situation. Now, it has diverse financing modes, market-based construction, and improved standard and law-based management. All those above support the development of Tianjin Metro effectively.

### Impact of Tianjin Metro
#### Ease Traffic Pressure

The fast pace of urbanization development shows the great vitality of society, but urban traffic system faces more and more pressure now. To provide better travel quality for citizens, public transport should lead the urban transport system. Among various public transport means, subway is prominent because of its high speed, capacity and reliability. Lots of cities in China have chosen subway system as the basic skeleton of its public transport system, so does Tianjin Province. Tianjin Metro has eased the traffic pressure especially in central urban area, which always has the highest building and population density. It help adjust the layout of urban space, and facilitate the balanced development of fringe area and central urban area.

#### Accelerate Economic Development

Real estate industry can get benefit from subway construction. Improvement of transportation situation, such as the travel convenience subway brings to citizens, can increase the land price. Since Tianjin Metro has extended to 11 new Areas surrounding central urban area, it creates good chance for real estate industry in those new Areas. Subway is a collector of people flow, which is the very thing business needed. Subway’s giant amount of people flow, complex structure, and potential service demand among passengers always attract the businesses. Besides, Tianjin Metro has promoted the development of related industries. Subway construction is not only about civil. It also need the participation of mechanism, electronics, etc.. After its operation begins, more industries like financing, media, business, etc. will add in the whole system. In addition, Tianjin Metro provides more job opportunities for society. For example, Line 1 has already created more than 1000 jobs.

### Future Development of Tianjin Metro

According to related planning documents, by 2020, the total mileage of Tianjin Metro will reach 1036 kilometers. 4 transit lines have been planned; and those lines cover two urban areas and 11 new town, and connect the airport and railway stations as well. Another 17 lines are planned to connect central urban area, Binhai New Area and the middle reaches of Haihe River to realize “less-than-one-hour” goal for trip between any two districts. As expected, rail system will afford more than 60% public transport passenger volume in Tianjin. More than 60% of citizens living in areas between central urban area and Binhai New Area can reach a Metro station within 10-minite walk. To sum it up, Tianjin Metro will cover main passenger corridors in Tianjin, which can largely improving travel conditions for citizens and driving the surrounding land development.

## Quantitative Analysis

The annual ridership data of Tianjin Metro is from EPS (Economy Prediction System) Data Platform. The data is incomplete for some year from the start year 1976 to now, and all data available is as follows:
TABLE 1 Annual Ridership of Tianjin Metro
| Year | Annual Ridership (Million) |
| 1976 | 0.86 |
| 1984 | 3,00 |
| 1997 | 5.39 |
| 1998 | 4.98 |
| 1999 | 3.80 |
| 2000 | 3.35 |
| 2005 | 6.61 |
| 2006 | 13.90 |
| 2007 | 34.96 |
| 2008 | 48.72 |
| 2009 | 53.95 |
| 2010 | 65.67 |
| 2011 | 75.65 |
| 2012 | 112.30 |
S(t) = K/[1+exp(-b(t-t0)] where:
* S(t) is the status measure, (e.g. Passenger-km traveled)
* t is time (usually in years),
* t0 is the inflection time (year in which 1/2 K is achieved),
* K is saturation status level,
* b is a coefficient.
K and b are to be estimated. For calculation convenience, transform the function above to the format: Y = ln(Ridership/(K-Ridership)) =c+b×t Where c = -b×t0 The calculation result is as follows after the transformation:
TABLE 2 Calculation Result
Choose K=120、130、140、150、160、170、200、300 to carry out model fitting of Y and Year. Here is the goodness-of-fit result:
TABLE 3 Goodness-of-fit
According to the goodness-of-fit result above, the largest R-square value arises when K=140. So, set K=40 in model fitting. The model fitting result is as follows:
TABLE 4 Regression Analysis Result
The result shows that b=0.545, and the intercept is -1094.795. So, t0 =-Intercept/b=2008, which means the mid-point of life-cycle of Tianjin Metro is around the year 2009. The graph of model above is as follows:
FIGURE 2 S Curve of Annual Ridership
The red line represents the predicted ridership and the blue line stands for the actual annual ridership. It can be seen from the graph that the predicted ridership is in good agreement of the actual annual ridership. But the two inflexion points in predicted ridership S Curve show steep slopes, which is not common mitigate change. Two reasons might explain this phenomenon. First, the construction of Tianjin Metro has been suspended for several times, so its market was depressed in the early time. But after year 2000, with largely strengthened policy and capital support and advanced construction and operation technology, Tianjin Metro has stepped into a rapid development, which is consistent with the model graph. Second, the development of Tianjin Metro goes through about 40 years, which is not a short time. The lack of historical data may result in this “error” as well. However, it can be seen for the model graph that Tianjin Metro reached the 2/3 of its life-cycle. In studies of life-cycle of Beijing Metro and Shanghai Metro, the development stage of these two Metro system is between 1/2 and 2/3 of the life-cycle. Tianjin is one of the four municipalities in China. And, as it special location, just beside Beijing, its Metro system development is very likely to be proportional to Beijing’s, so the model fitting result is convincing to some degree. In sum, the fitting curve above can represent for the life-cycle of Tianjin Metro.

## References

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* ↑ 天津经济课题组,仲成春,臧广宇,虞冬青,孟力,张丽恒. 地铁让城市更美好——2011天津地铁年展望[J]. 天津经济,2011,01:27-34.
* ↑ 李伟佳. 地铁沿线土地利用与城市发展互动性研究[D].天津大学,2012.
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* ↑ http://www.tjjt.gov.cn/#
* ↑ https://en.wikibooks.org/wiki/Transportation_Deployment_Casebook/Beijing_Metro
* ↑ https://en.wikibooks.org/wiki/Transportation_Deployment_Casebook/Shanghai_Metro