# Transportation Deployment Casebook/2018/Air Transport Mode
## Description

Air transport is another form of transportation mode by which passengers, mail and cargo are conveyed through air. It is the fastest transport method whereby the amount of time saved in regards of the high speed of flight. Air transport refers to the conveying of passengers internationally or domestically by an aircraft. An Aircraft particularly a machine that is able to fly.

### Technological Characteristic of an Aircraft

For an aircraft (Airplanes or Air mode) there is a variety of important technological characteristics involved within its invention. The most essential characteristics of an aircraft are as follows:
* Engine
Its purpose is to provide a force for propelling the aircraft through the air. In other words, it moves the aircraft with an immense amount of force produced by a tremendous thrust whereby causing the aircraft to move or fly at a high speed.
* Propeller
It converts the rotary motion from engine into a swirling slipstream which pushes the propeller forward direction.
* Fuselage
It’s the main body section of the aircraft. That is, it holds the crew passengers and cargo.
* Wings
It helps support the aircraft while in the air. That is, it generates the lift to hold the aircraft in the air.
* Three Controls
For an aircraft, there are three axes about which it can move. Further, allowing the flight pilot to adjust and control the aircraft.
* Flaps
The purpose of the flaps is to increase the lift of the aircraft wing correspond to the applied speed
* Tricycle under-carriage
Allows the aircraft to maneuver on ground as well as absorbing landing shocks when an aircraft land.

### Benefits of an Air mode

The most beneficial way of traveling by air transportation is that decreases the travel duration in regard to the high speed of flights. For an example, for long haul flights, air travel is unquestionably the quickest way to reach a desired destination. Similarly, for short hauls are often quicker. In terms of comfort, aircrafts are often more comfortable than some other alternatives. Such as, cozy seats, free beverages, etc. According to (Advantages of Air Travel, 2018) traveling by air mode internationally or domestically is the cheapest way to get to a destination. Comparing to the cost of tickets, bus train travel along with the cost of gasoline.
Other benefits:
* Easy transportation of costly and light goods
* Free from barriers (Mountains, rivers, etc.)
* Useful in natural calamite

### Main Market

The air transport mode market varies between the passengers (public) and cargo. On the contrary, planning and marketing can be presented as a process (see figure 1 below). The process or the cycle of airline marketing starts with planning flight schedule which determines which destination the aircraft should fly to. However, the planning of flight schedules is to attract as many customers as possible at the wide range of origin – destination (O&D) market. However, the profitability of flight schedules depends on the profitability of attracting revenues from customers and cargo. In general, the attraction of revenues is caused by the competitiveness of airlines flight schedules per each pair of location to which customers or cargo travel to.
Figure 1: factors of airline marketing
Source: (Mišetić, I & Steiner, Sanja & Tatalovic, Mirko, 2007)

## Other Related Modes

A similar mode in regard to transporting passengers and cargo internationally are ships. Sea modes or in this case ships, they are large watercraft that travels through water/ocean carrying passengers or goods. Ships are generally distinguished from boats based on shape, capacity, size, etc.

### Limitations

* Length, width, capability, operating speed (less passenger carrying capacity, longer transportation time)
* Amenities; cabins, activities and entertainment (people less inclined to travel without certain amenities; very limited on boats)
* Highly affected by weather conditions
* Difficult to monitor exact location
* Limited inland access

### Evolvement

Between the 16thand 18thcentury, the early development of international transportation and trade through seaports was prominently supported. Later in the industrial revolution, with globalization and containerization, sea vessels became increasingly used for international trade and global supply chains. During the late 20th century, global aviation became the more popular mode of transportation, due to their accelerated mobility of passengers and specialized cargoes.

### Factor of New Possibilities

The ultimate goal of transportation is to achieve the safe, efficient and economical movement of people and goods. With the limitations seen in the usage of sea transport, the evolving markets and the need for more economically efficient modes of transportation in the increasingly industrial 20thcentury, innovative transportation modes were essential in adapting to the evolving markets.

## Invention of Air Mode

In the 1900s the first airplane was invented and flew by the Wright brothers. The successful invented airplane was recognized as the first sustained and controlled heavier-than-air powered flight. The invention resulted with use of three axes control that allows the pilot to control the movement of the plane. In light of the evidence, it then began conveying people and cargo as designs developed larger and more reliable.
According to (Griffith, 2003), in 1890s the Wright brothers became seriously interested in flights. Although, prior to their successful powered flight, they faced problems. These problems were, balance and control, wing shape and resulting lift, and application of power to the structure. Subsequent to this, the Wright flyer was a four-year program of research and development began in 1899. After building and testing full-sized gliders, the Wrights' first powered airplane flew at Kitty Hawk, North Carolina (1903 Wright Flyer, 2018). As (Griffith, 2003) mention, even when they have accomplished manned flight, the brothers continued to develop and experiment with improvements to their flying machines.

### Different types of Expertise

In general, from Wright brother’s invention in the 1903 to jet transport of today, globally it has progressed from single flight to over thousandths each day. The development of technology has the potential to open a whole new era in aviation and provide greater opportunities in air transportation.
In terms of experts, different types of technological expertise were brought in, on the purpose for their technical knowledge and their competency in developing an aircraft. Further to this, engineering expertise (diverse technical disciplines) in the development of wings, fuselage, systems or cabins.

### The Experience of Design shift

Figure 2 & 3 illustrates a significant change in terms of design and aircraft development. From a one manned flight (Wright Flyer) to more than 100 passengers transporting from one destination to another. An enormous change since the 1900’s until now (2018) a century later.
Recent studies proved that the Wright Flyer didn’t have flaps to control the airplane. Instead the Wright Flyer had twist (warp) to control the rolling motion. Moreover, in making turns the pilot has to warp left or right wingtip (The Process of Invention, 2018).
Therefore, nowadays an extreme transformation of the powered flight to a more efficient and more reliable aircraft (See figure 3).
Figure 2:Wright Flyer, Source: (1903 Wright Flyer, 2018)
Figure 3:Boeing 787, source: (Google image, 2018)

## The Early Market Development of Air Mode

Early market development is a progression strategy that identifies and develops new market divisions for current products. It targets non-buying customersin currently targeted segmentsas well as new customers in new segments through the expansion of the prospective market through new uses.

### Market niche

Niche marketing is a targeted marketing plan that focuses on one particular section of the market that has high potential to connect with a product or service; it focuses on strategically selected venues and media platforms that have high concentrations of these targeted consumers.
The initial market niches of employing aviation for international transport was the need for the accelerated mobility of passengers and shorter travel time, which would result in a higher income profit for the airline company. They targeted a certain group of fare-paying passengers. For example, the American assumed that nearly all its Manchester-bound passengers at a certain time of year are leisure travelers paying coach fares, and that filling the plane with them is a better than premium service for a business-class section that might go mostly unsold. Air France even created a specialized airline, called Dedicate, to cater to a group of business travelers: engineers and executives in the construction and oil and gas industries, who often travel to places where tourists rarely go.

### Functional Enhancement vs Functional Discovery

With functional enhancement, the users, the market and the competitors are known, therefore the market development would be focused on the product features and performance.
With functional discovery, customersand their preferences are unknown and direct competitors are non-existent. Because of the absence of competition, the product features take on less importance; identifying customers and selling your product/service effectively is the main aim of the market development. This is more time-consuming than if you were in an existing market; puts extra emphasis on managing cash flow.

## Policy in the Birthing Phase

In the early years of 20thcentury, the policy of aviation insurance was first written. In general, the aviation insurance policy is the coverage of extends to accidental damages, operation of aircraft and other risks involved in aviation.

## Growth Development of Air Mode

The first commercial international air transport service between England and France was in 1919. World War I provided the first real spur to the development of commercial aviation as air power began to be used and better aircrafts were quickly designed. The market for long-haul travel was very small, partly because of the extraordinarily high cost. Many of the long-haul air services were to colonies and dependencies. Only the elite or government officials was able to afford air travel. It was only after World War II that air transportation became the dominant mode of long-haul passenger travel in developed countries. Air travel was becoming increasingly advertised and better fare prices were emerging. However, the growth of the number of planes and commercial services led to growth of risk and occurrences of air collisions and near-collisions. In response, national air traffic control systems began to be established in the mid 1950s, which substantially reduced the risks of accidents. Now, on average, more than 8 million people fly every day, with 36.8 million flights being operated in 2017.

### Policymaking

Air transportation generally produce noise, emission, and water pollution. Other type of environmental influence is heritage and cultural, and land soils. Therefore, these influenced the term of policymaking. The environmental policy was established according to the commitment of reducing the impact of operation on the environment, heritage and communities.

## Recommendation

The air transport mode is clearly still in growth development because currently innovation and invention of new technology both hardware (physical artifacts) and software (the way the artefacts are used to produce transportation) gradually increasing.
To reinvent the mode so that it can be better serve the needs of today and tomorrow. Predicting the future of passenger travel, perhaps an opportunity to create a supersonic aircraft/jets. A supersonic aircraft is an aircraft that’s able to fly faster than the speed of sound. This could reduce the duration of travel from point A to point B at a significant amount (time).

### Roles of public and private sector

Most of air transport infrastructure (airports and air navigational services) has been created by the public sector. However, during the last 20 years, the private sector participation has increased in the airport sector through a range of different schemes and models.
Government participation (use of public money, ownership powers) in the airport sector, is often suggested in situations where the public service nature of the service contributes greatly to the country’s transport network.

## Results
### Data

The table below showcase the total number of passengers carried per year, the calculations of the predicted passengers per year was done by using the logistic function (S(t) = K/[1+exp(-b(t-t$_0$)]). Therefore, the use of the logistic function allows the K (saturation status level) and b (coefficient) to be estimated. This determines if the model is accurate or not.
| Aviation | DATA - INDEPENDENT VARIABLE | RESULTANT CALCULATION | | CALCULATION FOR REGRESSION - DEPENDENT VARIABLE |
| | Passengers | S(t) = K/[1+exp(-b(t-t$_0$)] | | Y=LN(Passengers/(K-Passengers)) |
| Year | carried (thousands) | Predicted Passengers (thousands) | K | 199076.49 |
| 1985 | 44572 | 40978 | | -1.243117 |
| 1986 | 51023 | 45047 | | -1.065297 |
| 1987 | 56368 | 49393 | | -0.928902 |
| 1988 | 63931 | 54012 | | -0.748547 |
| 1989 | 69660 | 58893 | | -0.61941 |
| 1990 | 73641 | 64020 | | -0.53259 |
| 1991 | 76680 | 69373 | | -0.467625 |
| 1992 | 84801 | 74925 | | -0.298305 |
| 1993 | 87042 | 80645 | | -0.252416 |
| 1994 | 91448 | 86498 | | -0.162915 |
| 1995 | 98608 | 92443 | | -0.018692 |
| 1996 | 103898 | 98440 | | 0.087656 |
| 1997 | 106245 | 104445 | | 0.134962 |
| 1998 | 105251 | 110415 | | 0.114911 |
| 1999 | 107919 | 116306 | | 0.168792 |
| 2000 | 112902 | 122079 | | 0.270146 |
| 2001 | 105347 | 127696 | | 0.116847 |
| 2002 | 106085 | 133125 | | 0.131733 |
| 2003 | 117942 | 138337 | | 0.374085 |
| 2004 | 133353 | 143310 | | 0.707543 |
| 2005 | 132392 | 148026 | | 0.685795 |
| 2006 | 132674 | 152473 | | 0.692161 |
| 2007 | 138358 | 156644 | | 0.823596 |
| 2008 | 146014 | 160536 | | 1.012232 |
| 2009 | 153853 | 164150 | | 1.224381 |
| 2010 | 161108 | 167492 | | 1.445318 |
| 2011 | 164473 | 170570 | | 1.558792 |
| 2012 | 169958 | 173394 | | 1.764178 |
| 2013 | 181591 | 175976 | | 2.340386 |
| 2014 | 179839 | 178329 | | 2.235201 |
| 2015 | 186287 | 180468 | | 2.678665 |
| 2016 | 196780 | 182408 | | 4.450707 |
| | Variable | Value | REGRESSION RESULTS - OFFICE 2011 | REGRESSION RESULTS - OFFICE 2011 |
| | K | 199076.4851 | INTERCEPT | -241.0153 |
| See Regression Results | b | 0.120738113 | b | 0.120738 |
| | | | RSQ | 0.854738 |
| | tnought | 1996.182734 | tnought=intercept/-b | 1996.183 |
| | | Best Fit at K=300000 | | |
Table 1:Data Collections with excel calculated values
Table below shows the values of each variable estimated using excel solver as opposed to the total number of passengers per year.
| K | 199076.4851 |
| b | 0.120738113 |
| tnought | 1996.182734 |
| RSQ | 0.854738 |
Table 2:Important values of K, b, t$_0$, r$^2$

### Graph

Figure 4:Illustration of number of passenger on aviation per year
The graph shows the total number of passengers travelling inbound and outbound of Australia from various part of the world (internationally) for the years from 1985-1986 to 2016-2017. It can clearly be seen that there has been a large increase in the number of passengers.
The total number of passengers have risen considerably over this time period. In 1985 the total amount of passengers was nearly 45000. This figure climbed to approximately 100,000 in 1995. In the year 2000 to 2001 a sudden drop of about 7 percent, then rose dramatically by 5000 to just over 150000 two years later. Similarly, 2004 to 2006 a decrease of about 1000. Since 2006 there has been a steady increase with around 60000 passengers traveling inbound and outbound of Australia.
Note that the birth of deregulation of international aviation in Australia occurred in the mid 1980s (Bamber, 2018). Before deregulation of international airlines, they were highly regulated due to the monopoly of the two international countries. Therefore, using the graph the birthing phase of international flights began in the year 1985, where then continued to grow gradually hence currently the growth development of air transport mode is still raising. However, maturity of aviation mode does not occur at this point, as mention the development of aviation is still growing. Nevertheless, by looking at the RSQ that is equivalent to about 0.85 which is close to one (1) therefore it can be concluded that the model is fairly accurate.

## Reference(s)

1903 Wright Flyer. (2018), accessed 10 May 2018, Retrieved from https://airandspace.si.edu/collection-objects/1903-wright-flyer
Advantages of Air Travel. (2018), accessed 10 May 2018, Retrieved from http://traveltips.usatoday.com/advantages-air-travel-12486.html
Aeronautics Technology. (2018), accessed 10 May 2018, Retrieved from https://www.nasa.gov/pdf/55403main_20%20AT.pdf
Air Transport. (2018). Retrieved from https://transportgeography.org/?page_id=1765
Airline industry worldwide - number of flights 2017 | Statistic. (2018), accessed 10 May 2018, Retrieved from https://www.statista.com/statistics/564769/airline-industry-number-of-flights/
Airport traffic data. (2018), accessed 10 May 2018, Retrieved from https://bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoing/airport_traffic_data.aspx
Bamber, G. (2018). There are two routes to survival for airlines, accessed 10 May, Retrieved from https://www.smh.com.au/business/there-are-two-routes-to-survival-for-airlines-20090618-clz2.html
Griffith, W.M. 2003, "The Wright stuff: Materials in the Wright Flyer", Advanced Materials and Processes, vol. 161, no. 12, pp. 21-24.
Maynard, M. (2018). Airlines Taking Niche Approach To Many Flights, accessed 10 May 2018, Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2004/05/15/business/airlines-taking-niche-approach-to-many-flights.html
Mišetić, I & Steiner, Sanja & Tatalovic, Mirko. (2007). Airline marketing factors. Promet - Traffic - Traffico. 19. 11-19.
The Wright Way: The Process of Invention. (2018), accessed 10 May 2018, Retrieved from https://www.nasa.gov/pdf/143715main_Process.of.Invention.pdf