# 2012 United States House of Representatives election ratings

The 2012 United States House of Representatives elections were held November 6, 2012, to elect representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. The six non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and the inhabited U.S. territories will also be elected. Numerous federal, state, and local elections, including the 2012 presidential election and the 2012 Senate elections, were also held on this date.

## Election ratings

Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The seats listed below were considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.
Most election ratings use:
* Tossup: no advantage
* Tilt (sometimes used): slight advantage
* Lean: clear advantage
* Likely: strong, but not certain advantage
* Safe: outcome is nearly certain
| District | CPVI | Incumbent | Previous result | Cook November 5, 2012 | Rothenberg November 2, 2012 | Sabato November 5, 2012 | RCP November 4, 2012 | Roll Call November 4, 2012 | NYT November 4, 2012 | The Hill November 4, 2012 | Winner |
| Arizona 1 | R+3 | Paul Gosar (R) (switching seats) | 49.7% R | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Ann Kirkpatrick (D) |
| Arizona 2 | R+2 | Ron Barber (D) | 52.3% D | Lean D | Tilt D | Likely D | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Ron Barber (D) |
| Arizona 9 | R+1 | David Schweikert (R) (switching seats) | 52.0% R | Lean D (flip) | Tilt D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Kyrsten Sinema (D) |
| Arkansas 1 | R+7 | Rick Crawford (R) | 51.8% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Rick Crawford (R) |
| Arkansas 4 | R+9 | Mike Ross (D) (retiring) | 57.5% D | Likely R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Tom Cotton (R) |
| California 3 | D+1 | John Garamendi (D) | 58.8% D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D | John Garamendi (D) |
| California 7 | R+3 | Dan Lungren (R) | 50.1% R | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Ami Bera (D) |
| California 9 | D+2 | Jerry McNerney (D) | 48.0% D | Tossup | Tilt D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Jerry McNerney (D) |
| California 10 | R+5 | Jeff Denham (R) | 64.6% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Lean R | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Jeff Denham (R) |
| California 16 | D+2 | Jim Costa (D) | 51.7% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Lean D | Likely D | Jim Costa (D) |
| California 21 | R+3 | (New seat) | (New seat) | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Lean R | Lean R | David Valadao (R) |
| California 24 | D+3 | Lois Capps (D) | 57.8% D | Lean D | Tilt D | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Lois Capps (D) |
| California 26 | D+2 | Elton Gallegly (R) (retiring) | 59.9% R | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Julia Brownley (D) |
| California 36 | R+3 | Mary Bono (R) | 51.4% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Lean R | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Raul Ruiz (D) |
| California 41 | D+3 | (New seat) | (New seat) | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Mark Takano (D) |
| California 47 | D+5 | (New seat) | (New seat) | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D | Lean D | Likely D | Alan Lowenthal (D) |
| California 52 | R+1 | Brian Bilbray (R) | 56.6% R | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Scott Peters (D) |
| Colorado 3 | R+4 | Scott Tipton (R) | 50.1% R | Lean R | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R | Tossup | Lean R | Lean R | Scott Tipton (R) |
| Colorado 6 | R+1 | Mike Coffman (R) | 65.7% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Lean R | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Mike Coffman (R) |
| Colorado 7 | D+3 | Ed Perlmutter (D) | 53.4% D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Ed Perlmutter (D) |
| Connecticut 4 | D+5 | Jim Himes (D) | 53.1% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Jim Himes (D) |
| Connecticut 5 | D+2 | Chris Murphy (D) (retiring) | 54.1% D | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Elizabeth Esty (D) |
| Florida 2 | R+3 | Steve Southerland (R) | 53.6% R | Lean R | Likely R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Likely R | Steve Southerland (R) |
| Florida 9 | D+4 | (New seat) | (New seat) | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Lean D | Likely D | Alan Grayson (D) |
| Florida 10 | R+3 | Daniel Webster (R) | 56.1% R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Tossup | Daniel Webster (R) |
| Florida 13 | R+1 | Bill Young (R) | 65.9% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | Lean R | Bill Young (R) |
| Florida 16 | R+5 | Vern Buchanan (R) | 68.9% R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | Vern Buchanan (R) |
| Florida 18 | R+1 | Tom Rooney (R) (switching seats) | 66.9% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Lean R | Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Tossup | Patrick Murphy (D) |
| Florida 24 | D+5 | Allen West (R) (switching seats) | 54.4% R | Likely D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Lois Frankel (D) |
| Florida 26 | R+3 | David Rivera (R) | 52.2% R | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Likely D (flip) | Joe Garcia (D) |
| Georgia 12 | R+9 | John Barrow (D) | 56.6% D | Tossup | Tilt D | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | John Barrow (D) |
| Illinois 8 | D+6 | Peter Roskam (R) (switching seats) | 63.7% R | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Likely D (flip) | Tammy Duckworth (D) |
| Illinois 10 | D+8 | Bob Dold (R) | 51.1% R | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Brad Schneider (D) |
| Illinois 11 | D+6 | Judy Biggert (R) | 63.8% R | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Bill Foster (D) |
| Illinois 12 | D+2 | Jerry Costello (D) | 59.8% D | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | William Enyart (D) |
| Illinois 13 | D+1 | (New seat) | (New seat) | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Rodney Davis (R) |
| Illinois 17 | D+6 | Bobby Schilling (R) | 52.6% R | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Cheri Bustos (D) |
| Indiana 2 | R+7 | Joe Donnelly (D) (retiring) | 48.2% D | Likely R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Safe D | Lean R (flip) | Jackie Walorski (R) |
| Indiana 8 | R+8 | Larry Bucshon (R) | 57.6% R | Lean R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | Safe R | Lean R | Lean R | Larry Bucshon (R) |
| Iowa 1 | D+5 | Bruce Braley (D) | 49.5% D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Bruce Braley (D) |
| Iowa 2 | D+4 | Dave Loebsack (D) | 55.4% D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D | Lean D | Dave Loebsack (D) |
| Iowa 3 | R+1 | Leonard Boswell (D) | 48.2% D | Lean R (flip) | Tilt R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tom Latham (R) |
| Iowa 4 | R+4 | Tom Latham (R) (switching seats) | 65.8% R | Lean R | Tilt R | Lean R | Tossup | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Steve King (R) |
| Kentucky 6 | R+7 | Ben Chandler (D) | 50.1% D | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Andy Barr (R) |
| Maine 2 | D+3 | Mike Michaud (D) | 55.1% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Lean D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Mike Michaud (D) |
| Maryland 6 | D+2 | Roscoe Bartlett (R) | 61.5% R | Likely D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | John Delaney (D) |
| Massachusetts 6 | D+7 | John F. Tierney (D) | 56.9% D | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | John F. Tierney (D) |
| Michigan 1 | R+4 | Dan Benishek (R) | 51.9% R | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Dan Benishek (R) |
| Michigan 3 | R+5 | Justin Amash (R) | 59.7% R | Likely R | Safe R | Lean R | Likely R | Safe R | Lean R | Safe R | Justin Amash (R) |
| Michigan 6 | R+1 | Fred Upton (R) | 62.0% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Fred Upton (R) |
| Michigan 7 | R+3 | Tim Walberg (R) | 50.2% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Lean R | Safe R | Tim Walberg (R) |
| Michigan 11 | R+4 | (Vacant) | 59.3% R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Tossup | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | Kerry Bentivolio (R) |
| Minnesota 2 | R+2 | John Kline (R) | 63.3% R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | John Kline (R) |
| Minnesota 6 | R+8 | Michele Bachmann (R) | 52.5% R | Lean R | Lean R | Likely R | Lean R | Lean R | Safe R | Lean R | Michele Bachmann (R) |
| Minnesota 7 | R+5 | Collin Peterson (D) | 60.4% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Collin Peterson (D) |
| Minnesota 8 | D+3 | Chip Cravaack (R) | 48.2% R | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Rick Nolan (D) |
| Montana at-large | R+7 | Denny Rehberg (R) (retiring) | 60.3% R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Steve Daines (R) |
| Nebraska 2 | R+6 | Lee Terry (R) | 60.8% R | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | Lean R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Lee Terry (R) |
| Nevada 3 | Even | Joe Heck (R) | 48.1% R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Tossup | Joe Heck (R) |
| Nevada 4 | D+2 | (New seat) | (New seat) | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Steven Horsford (D) |
| New Hampshire 1 | Even | Frank Guinta (R) | 54.0% R | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Carol Shea-Porter (D) |
| New Hampshire 2 | D+3 | Charles Bass (R) | 48.3% R | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D (flip) | Annie Kuster (D) |
| New Jersey 3 | R+3 | Jon Runyan (R) | 50.0% R | Lean R | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Jon Runyan (R) |
| New Jersey 5 | R+4 | Scott Garrett (R) | 65.0% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Scott Garrett (R) |
| New Jersey 7 | R+6 | Leonard Lance (R) | 65.0% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Leonard Lance (R) |
| New Jersey 9 | D+11 | Bill Pascrell (D) | 62.7% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Bill Pascrell (D) |
| New Mexico 1 | D+5 | Martin Heinrich (D) (retiring) | 51.8% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Lean D | Likely D | Martin Heinrich (D) |
| New York 1 | Even | Tim Bishop (D) | 50.2% D | Lean D | Tilt D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Tim Bishop (D) |
| New York 11 | R+6 | Michael Grimm (R) | 51.3% R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Tossup | Likely R | Michael Grimm (R) |
| New York 18 | R+2 | Nan Hayworth (R) | 52.7% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Lean R | Lean R | Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Sean Patrick Maloney (D) |
| New York 19 | Even | Chris Gibson (R) | 54.9% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Lean R | Lean R | Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Chris Gibson (R) |
| New York 21 | R+2 | Bill Owens (D) | 47.5% D | Lean D | Tilt D | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Bill Owens (D) |
| New York 22 | R+3 | Richard Hanna (R) | 53.1% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Lean R | Likely R | Richard Hanna (R) |
| New York 23 | R+3 | Tom Reed (R) | 52.1% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Lean R | Safe R | Tom Reed (R) |
| New York 24 | D+3 | Ann Marie Buerkle (R) | 50.2% R | Lean D (flip) | Tilt D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Dan Maffei (D) |
| New York 25 | D+5 | Louise Slaughter (D) | 64.9% D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Louise Slaughter (D) |
| New York 27 | R+7 | Kathy Hochul (D) | 47.2% D | Lean R (flip) | Tilt R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Chris Collins (R) |
| North Carolina 7 | R+11 | Mike McIntyre (D) | 53.7% D | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Mike McIntyre (D) |
| North Carolina 8 | R+12 | Larry Kissell (D) | 53.0% D | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Tossup | Likely R (flip) | Richard Hudson (R) |
| North Carolina 11 | R+12 | Heath Shuler (D) (retiring) | 54.3% D | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Mark Meadows (R) |
| North Carolina 13 | R+9 | Brad Miller (D) (retiring) | 55.5% D | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | George Holding (R) |
| North Dakota at-large | R+10 | Rick Berg (R) (retiring) | 54.7% R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Kevin Cramer (R) |
| Ohio 6 | R+5 | Bill Johnson (R) | 50.2% R | Tossup | Lean R | Lean R | Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Lean R | Bill Johnson (R) |
| Ohio 7 | R+5 | Bob Gibbs (R) | 53.9% R | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Lean R | Likely R | Bob Gibbs (R) |
| Ohio 9 | D+15 | Marcy Kaptur (D) | 59.4% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Marcy Kaptur (D) |
| Ohio 16 | R+5 | Jim Renacci (R) | 52.1% R | Lean R | Tilt R | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Tossup | Jim Renacci (R) |
| Oklahoma 2 | R+14 | Dan Boren (D) (retiring) | 56.5% D | Likely R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Markwayne Mullin (R) |
| Oregon 5 | Even | Kurt Schrader (D) | 51.3% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Lean D | Likely D | Kurt Schrader (D) |
| Pennsylvania 6 | R+1 | Jim Gerlach (R) | 53.1% R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Lean R | Likely R | Jim Gerlach (R) |
| Pennsylvania 7 | Even | Pat Meehan (R) | 54.9% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Lean R | Likely R | Pat Meehan (R) |
| Pennsylvania 8 | D+1 | Mike Fitzpatrick (R) | 53.5% R | Lean R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Lean R | Lean R | Mike Fitzpatrick (R) |
| Pennsylvania 11 | R+6 | Lou Barletta (R) | 54.7% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Lou Barletta (R) |
| Pennsylvania 12 | R+6 | Jason Altmire (D) (lost renomination) | 50.8% D | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Keith Rothfus (R) |
| Pennsylvania 15 | R+2 | Charlie Dent (R) | 53.5% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Charlie Dent (R) |
| Pennsylvania 18 | R+6 | Tim Murphy (R) | 67.3% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Tim Murphy (R) |
| Rhode Island 1 | D+14 | David Cicilline (D) | 50.6% D | Tossup | Tilt D | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | David Cicilline (D) |
| South Dakota at-large | R+9 | Kristi Noem (R) | 48.1% R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Kristi Noem (R) |
| Tennessee 4 | R+13 | Scott DesJarlais (R) | 57.1% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Safe R | Lean R | Scott DesJarlais (R) |
| Texas 10 | R+11 | Michael McCaul (R) | 64.7% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Michael McCaul (R) |
| Texas 14 | R+8 | Ron Paul (R) (retiring) | 76.0% R | Lean R | Lean R | Likely R | Lean R | Lean R | Safe R | Lean R | Randy Weber (R) |
| Texas 23 | R+5 | Quico Canseco (R) | 49.4% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Pete Gallego (D) |
| Texas 34 | D+3 | (New seat) | (New seat) | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Filemon Vela Jr. (D) |
| Utah 4 | R+14 | (New seat) | (New seat) | Lean R | Tilt R | Lean R | Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Tossup | Jim Matheson (D) |
| Virginia 2 | R+5 | Scott Rigell (R) | 53.1% R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R | Lean R | Scott Rigell (R) |
| Virginia 5 | R+5 | Robert Hurt (R) | 50.8% R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Robert Hurt (R) |
| Washington 1 | D+3 | (Vacant) | 57.7% D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D | Suzan DelBene (D) |
| Washington 3 | R+2 | Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) | 53.0% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) |
| Washington 10 | D+4 | (New seat) | (New seat) | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Lean D | Likely D | Denny Heck (D) |
| West Virginia 3 | R+6 | Nick Rahall (D) | 56.0% D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Nick Rahall (D) |
| Wisconsin 7 | Even | Sean Duffy (R) | 52.1% R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Likely R | Lean R | Tossup | Sean Duffy (R) |
| Wisconsin 8 | R+2 | Reid Ribble (R) | 55.9% R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Lean R | Likely R | Reid Ribble (R) |
| Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | R - 217 D - 174 44 tossups | R - 233 D - 185 18 tossups | R - 239 D - 196 | R - 224 D - 178 33 tossups | R - 227 D -175 33 tossups | R - 227 D - 183 25 tossups | Republican retain 35 tossups | R - 234 D - 201 |