# Opinion polling for the 1999 New Zealand general election

Opinion polling was commissioned throughout the duration of the 45th New Zealand Parliament in the lead up to the 1999 election by various organisations.

## Party vote

Polls are listed in the table below in chronological order. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey firms.

### Individual polls

| Poll | Date | Labour | National | NZ First | Alliance | ACT | Green | United |
| 1996 election result | 12 Oct 1996 | 28.19 | 33.87 | 13.35 | 10.10 | 6.10 | – | 0.88 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 13 Feb 1997 | 31 | 45 | 7 | 7 | 4.3 | – | 0.2 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 13 Mar 1997 | 32 | 47 | 4.2 | 7 | 4.4 | – | – |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 11 Apr 1997 | 36 | 41 | 5 | 8 | 6 | – | 0.1 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 13 May 1997 | 42 | 38 | 3.8 | 6 | 4.7 | – | 0.1 |
| TV3/CM Research | 25 May 1997 | 45 | 30 | 6 | 6.7 | 7.1 | – | – |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 25 Jun 1997 | 41 | 39 | 4.4 | 7 | 4.9 | – | 0.1 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 10 Jul 1997 | 42 | 39 | 3.8 | 7 | 4.5 | – | 0.2 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 7 Aug 1997 | 42 | 39 | 3.7 | 9 | 4.7 | – | 0 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 18 Sep 1997 | 45 | 36 | 1.9 | 7 | 6 | – | 0.6 |
| TV3/CM Research | 11 Oct 1997 | 49 | 31 | 4.5 | 8.3 | 5.9 | – | – |
| New Zealand Herald-DigiPoll | 13 Oct 1997 | 50 | 32 | 1.7 | 5.9 | 4.6 | – | – |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 16 Oct 1997 | 52 | 30 | 1.8 | 7 | 6 | – | 0.2 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 4 Nov 1997 | 45 | 37 | 2.3 | 6 | 5 | – | 0.3 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 13 Nov 1997 | 45 | 36 | 2.8 | 6 | 7 | – | – |
| TV3/CM Research | 23 Nov 1997 | 45 | 34 | 3.1 | 7.6 | 7 | – | – |
| 8 December 1997 – Jenny Shipley is elected Prime Minister and leader of the National Party after Jim Bolger's resignation. |||||||||
| One News Colmar Brunton | 8–10 Dec 1997 | 46 | 40 | 1.1 | 6 | 5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 12 Feb 1998 | 45 | 42 | 1.3 | 5 | 5 | 0.4 | – |
| TV3-CM Research | 15 Feb 1998 | 44 | 38 | 1.8 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 0.5 | – |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 25 Mar 1998 | 39 | 42 | 1.6 | 5 | 8 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| TV3/CM Research | 21 Apr 1998 | 38 | 42 | 2.2 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 0.4 | – |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 23 Apr 1998 | 38 | 46 | 2.5 | 6 | 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 2 May 1998 – National narrowly wins the Taranaki-King Country by-election after Bolger's resignation. |||||||||
| New Zealand Herald-DigiPoll | 11 May 1998 | 34.7 | 38.3 | 1.7 | 8.5 | 11.8 | 1.4 | – |
| TV3/CM Research | 14 May 1998 | 37 | 41 | 2.1 | 8 | 9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 18 Jun 1998 | 37 | 37 | 2.1 | 9 | 11 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 9 Jul 1998 | 42 | 36 | 1.9 | 9 | 8 | 0.2 | – |
| TV3-CM Research | 10 Jul 1998 | 42 | 36 | 2.3 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1 | – |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 6 Aug 1998 | 40 | 39 | 2.6 | 9 | 6 | 0.7 | – |
| New Zealand Herald-DigiPoll | 11 Aug 1998 | 46.1 | 32.6 | 2.2 | 9.7 | 5.9 | – | – |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 13 Aug 1998 | 41 | 39 | 2.9 | 9 | 5 | – | – |
| 14 August 1998 – Winston Peters is sacked from cabinet by Shipley ending the coalition between National and New Zealand First. |||||||||
| TV3/CM Research | 13 Sep 1998 | 42 | 35 | 4.4 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 0.4 | – |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 22 Sep 1998 | 42 | 41 | 1.8 | 7 | 6 | 0.3 | – |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 15 Oct 1998 | 48 | 35 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 16 Nov 1998 | 48 | 34 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 0.5 | – |
| TV3/CM Research | 17 Nov 1998 | 49 | 32 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 1 | – |
| New Zealand Herald-Digipoll | 7 Dec 1998 | 51 | 32 | 3.5 | 6 | 4.5 | – | – |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 10 Dec 1998 | 45 | 35 | 2.4 | 8 | 5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 11 Feb 1999 | 42 | 41 | 2.6 | 7 | 3.9 | 0.7 | – |
| TV3/CM Research | 14 Feb 1999 | 43 | 37 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 1 | – |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 23 Mar 1999 | 39 | 42 | 2.2 | 7 | 6 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| TV3/CM Research | 18 Apr 1999 | 41 | 37 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 1 | – |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 27 Apr 1999 | 44 | 38 | 1.5 | 6 | 6 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 19 May 1999 | 44 | 39 | 2.6 | 7 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 17 Jun 1999 | 42 | 41 | 1.9 | 6 | 4.9 | 1.4 | – |
| TV3/CM Research | 20 Jun 1999 | 46 | 33 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 1.4 | – |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 13 Jul 1999 | 44 | 38 | 1.8 | 6 | 4.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| TV3/CM Research | 25 Jul 1999 | 38 | 37 | 4.7 | 8 | 6 | 1.5 | – |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 5 August 1999 | 40 | 38 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 1.1 | – |
| TV3/CM Research | 22 August 1999 | 40 | 32 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 2.6 | – |
| New Zealand Herald-DigiPoll | 28 Aug – 3 Sep 1999 | 43.8 | 35.7 | 5.5 | 5 | – | 3.1 | – |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 16 Sep 1999 | 41 | 35 | 4.1 | 7 | 5 | 1.9 | 0.2 |
| TV3/CM Research | 19 Sep 1999 | 39 | 33 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 2.4 | – |
| TV3/CM Research | 10 Oct 1999 | 40 | 36 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 2 | – |
| TV3/CM Research | 20 Oct 1999 | 37 | 33 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 2.5 | – |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 18 Oct 1999 | 39 | 37 | 6 | 4.5 | 7 | 1 | 0.5 |
| New Zealand Herald-Digipoll | 5 Nov 1999 | 35.2 | 34 | 1 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 2.9 | 0.3 |
| TV3/CM Research | 7 Nov 1999 | 41 | 28 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 2.9 | – |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 11 Nov 1999 | 34 | 33 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 2.4 | 0.1 |
| TV3/CM Research | 17 Nov 1999 | 37 | 30 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 2.8 | – |
| New Zealand Herald-Digipoll | 26 Nov 1999 | 39.8 | 29.9 | 3.6 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 5.4 | – |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 26 Nov 1999 | 39 | 31 | 3.2 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 0.7 |
| TV3/CM Research | 26 Nov 1999 | 34 | 29 | 5.5 | 9 | 11 | 6 | – |
| 1999 election result | 27 Nov 1999 | 38.74 | 30.50 | 4.26 | 7.74 | 7.04 | 5.16 | 0.54 |

## Preferred prime minister
### Individual polls

| Poll | Date | Helen Clark | Jim Bolger | Jenny Shipley | Winston Peters | Jim Anderton | Richard Prebble | Mike Moore |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 13 May 1997 | 21 | 20 | 6 | 4 | 6 | – | 5 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 25 Jun 1997 | 26 | 21 | 4 | 4 | 5 | – | 4 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 13 Aug 1997 | 25 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 7 | – | – |
| 8 December 1997 – Jenny Shipley is elected Prime Minister and leader of the National Party after Jim Bolger's resignation. |||||||||
| One News Colmar Brunton | 8 – 10 Dec 1997 | 28 | 5 | 27 | 2 | – | – | – |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 12 Feb 1998 | 26 | 3 | 27 | 1 | 5 | – | 3 |
| TV3-CM Research | 15 Feb 1998 | 28 | 4 | 20 | 2 | 5 | – | 5 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 25 Mar 1998 | 23 | 3 | 31 | 3 | 4 | – | 3 |
| TV3-CM Research | 10 Jul 1998 | 21 | – | 22 | – | – | – | – |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 11 Aug 1998 | 22 | – | 28 | 2 | 9 | 2 | – |
| 14 August 1998 – Winston Peters is sacked from cabinet by Shipley ending the coalition between National and New Zealand First. |||||||||
| One News Colmar Brunton | 22 Sep 1998 | 23 | – | 28 | 3 | 7 | 1 | – |
| TV3/CM Research | 17 Nov 1998 | 24 | – | 15 | 4 | 6 | – | – |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 23 Mar 1999 | 21 | – | 29 | – | – | – | – |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 27 Apr 1999 | 21 | – | 27 | 3 | 5 | 1 | – |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 19 May 1999 | 22 | – | 27 | 4 | 6 | 1 | – |
| New Zealand Herald-DigiPoll | 11 Aug 1999 | 19.5 | – | 17.6 | 2.4 | 6.4 | – | 3 |
| New Zealand Herald-DigiPoll | 8 Sep 1999 | 19.5 | 1.1 | 16 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 26 Nov 1999 | 30 | – | 27 | – | – | – | – |
| TV3/CM Research | 26 Nov 1999 | 23 | – | 20 | – | – | – | – |

## Electorate polling
### Coromandel

| Poll | Date | Tony Bird | Jeanette Fitzsimons | Margaret Hawkeswood | Robyn McDonald | Murray McLean |
| Reid Research | 5–8 Aug 1999 | 6 | 33 | 20 | 10 | 31 |
| Sunday Star Times/UMR Insight | 24 Oct 1999 | – | 34 | 15 | – | 37 |
| TV1 Colmar Brunton | 10 Nov 1999 | 8 | 39 | 13 | 4 | 36 |
| Dominion/UMR Insight | 15 Nov 1999 | – | 43 | 11 | – | 35 |
| TV1 Colmar Brunton | 18–21 Nov 1999 | 3 | 44 | 11 | – | 39 |
| 1999 election result | 27 Nov 1999 | 3.56 | 39.98 | 11.37 | 3.61 | 39.25 |

### Wellington Central

| Poll | Date | Marian Hobbs | Richard Prebble |
| TV1 Colmar Brunton | 8 Nov 1999 | 48 | 47 |
| 1999 election result | 27 Nov 1999 | 48.37 | 44.27 |

### Ikaroa-Rāwhiti

| Poll | Date | Derek Fox | Bill Gudgeon | Parekura Horomia | Dalvanius Prime | Des Ratima | Vicky Robin | Tauni Sinclair |
| Marae | | 31.7 | 10.9 | 34.6 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 3.3 |
| Marae | 21 Nov 1999 | 34 | – | 36.6 | – | – | – | – |
| 1999 election result | 27 Nov 1999 | 37.16 | 5.97 | 40.99 | — | 5.27 | 0.77 | — |

### Waiariki

| Poll | Date | Tuariki Delamere | Mita Ririnui |
| Marae | 21 Nov 1999 | 27.1 | 30 |
| 1999 election result | 27 Nov 1999 | 20.01 | 45.11 |