# Post-election pendulum for the 1996 Victorian state election

The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the 1996 Victorian state election.
"Very safe" seats require a swing of over 20 per cent to change, "safe" seats require a swing of 10 to 20 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.
* Liberal/National seats
* Marginal
* Ballarat East
* Barry Traynor
* LIB
* 0.0%
* Oakleigh
* Denise McGill
* LIB
* 0.8%
* Carrum
* David Lean
* LIB
* 0.8%
* Ballarat West
* Paul Jenkins
* LIB
* 1.4%
* Narracan
* Florian Andrighetto
* LIB
* 1.6%
* Tullamarine
* Bernie Finn
* LIB
* 3.0%
* Frankston East
* Peter McLellan
* LIB
* 3.1%
* Geelong
* Ann Henderson
* LIB
* 3.5%
* Seymour
* Marie Tehan
* LIB
* 4.2%
* Ripon
* Steve Elder
* LIB
* 4.6%
* Prahran
* Leonie Burke
* LIB
* 4.6%
* Mordialloc
* Geoff Leigh
* LIB
* 4.7%
* Bentleigh
* Inga Peulich
* LIB
* 4.7%
* Bendigo East
* Michael John
* LIB
* 5.0%
* Monbulk
* Steve McArthur
* LIB
* 5.2%
* Mitcham
* Roger Pescott
* LIB
* 5.3%
* Berwick
* Robert Dean
* LIB
* 5.3%
* Bellarine
* Garry Spry
* LIB
* 5.5%
* Fairly safe
* Eltham
* Wayne Philips
* LIB
* 6.8%
* Bayswater
* Gordon Ashley
* LIB
* 7.5%
* Gisborne
* Tom Reynolds
* LIB
* 7.8%
* Knox
* Hurtle Lupton
* LIB
* 7.9%
* Polwarth
* Ian Smith
* LIB
* 8.1%
* Dromana
* Martin Dixon
* LIB
* 8.1%
* Burwood
* Jeff Kennett
* LIB
* 8.6%
* Cranbourne
* Gary Rowe
* LIB
* 9.1%
* Bennettswood
* Geoff Coleman
* LIB
* 9.2%
* Caulfield
* Helen Shardey
* LIB
* 9.3%
* Safe
* South Barwon
* Alister Paterson
* LIB
* 10.2%
* Box Hill
* Robert Clark
* LIB
* 10.3%
* Portland
* Denis Napthine
* LIB
* 10.4%
* Forest Hill
* John Richardson
* LIB
* 10.5%
* Pakenham
* Rob Maclellan
* LIB
* 11.1%
* Mornington
* Robin Cooper
* LIB
* 11.3%
* Mooroolbark
* Lorraine Elliott
* LIB
* 12.2%
* Gippsland West
* Alan Brown
* LIB
* 12.6%
* Evelyn
* Jim Plowman
* LIB
* 12.7%
* Wantirna
* Kim Wells
* LIB
* 13.1%
* Hawthorn
* Phil Gude
* LIB
* 13.6%
* Warrnambool
* John McGrath
* NAT
* 13.8%
* Warrandyte
* Phil Honeywood
* LIB
* 13.9%
* Sandringham
* Murray Thompson
* LIB
* 14.3%
* Bulleen
* David Perrin
* LIB
* 14.6%
* Benambra
* Tony Plowman
* LIB
* 14.9%
* Kew
* Jan Wade
* LIB
* 15.0%
* Doncaster
* Victor Perton
* LIB
* 15.0%
* Gippsland East
* David Treasure
* NAT
* 15.2%
* Benalla
* Pat McNamara
* NAT
* 15.3%
* Frankston
* Andrea McCall
* LIB
* 15.4%
* Glen Waverley
* Ross Smith
* LIB
* 15.7%
* Malvern
* Robert Doyle
* LIB
* 17.6%
* Brighton
* Alan Stockdale
* LIB
* 18.1%
* Swan Hill
* Barry Steggall
* NAT
* 19.0%
* Gippsland South
* Peter Ryan
* NAT
* 19.4%
* Shepparton
* Don Kilgour
* NAT
* 19.6%
* Very safe
* Wimmera
* Bill McGrath
* NAT
* 21.2%
* Murray Valley
* Ken Jasper
* NAT
* 22.4%
* Rodney
* Noel Maughan
* NAT
* 26.1%
* Labor seats
* Marginal
* Werribee
* Mary Douglas
* ALP
* 0.8%
* Ivanhoe
* Craig Langdon
* ALP
* 1.6%
* Yan Yean
* Andre Haermeyer
* ALP
* 1.6%
* Bendigo West
* Bob Cameron
* ALP
* 1.7%
* Dandenong North
* Jan Wilson
* ALP
* 2.2%
* Bundoora
* Sherryl Garbutt
* ALP
* 2.6%
* Morwell
* Keith Hamilton
* ALP
* 2.7%
* Dandenong
* John Pandazopoulos
* ALP
* 3.3%
* Essendon
* Judy Maddigan
* ALP
* 3.4%
* Niddrie
* Rob Hulls
* ALP
* 4.4%
* Fairly safe
* Springvale
* Eddie Micallef
* ALP
* 7.9%
* Geelong North
* Peter Loney
* ALP
* 8.1%
* Altona
* Lynne Kosky
* ALP
* 8.2%
* Albert Park
* John Thwaites
* ALP
* 8.8%
* Clayton
* Hong Lim
* ALP
* 9.6%
* Safe
* Mitcham
* Tony Robinson
* ALP
* 10.5%
* Pascoe Vale
* Christine Campbell
* ALP
* 11.1%
* Keilor
* George Seitz
* ALP
* 11.6%
* Melton
* David Cunningham
* ALP
* 12.2%
* Mill Park
* Alex Andrianopoulos
* ALP
* 13.9%
* Northcote
* Mary Delahunty
* ALP
* 15.0%
* Preston
* Michael Leighton
* ALP
* 15.3%
* Williamstown
* Steve Bracks
* ALP
* 15.6%
* Melbourne
* Neil Cole
* ALP
* 15.9%
* Coburg
* Carlo Carli
* ALP
* 16.9%
* Richmond
* Demetri Dollis
* ALP
* 17.3%
* Sunshine
* Ian Baker
* ALP
* 19.1%
* Footscray
* Bruce Mildenhall
* ALP
* 19.4%
* Northcote
* Tony Sheehan
* ALP
* 19.9%
* Very safe
* Thomastown
* Peter Batchelor
* ALP
* 22.0%
* Broadmeadows
* John Brumby
* ALP
* 25.1%
* Independent & other seats
* Gippsland West
* Susan Davies
* IND v LIB
* 0.3%
* Mildura
* Russell Savage
* IND v LIB
* 20.9%