# Post-election pendulum for the 1992 Victorian state election

The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the 1992 Victorian state election.
"Very safe" seats require a swing of over 20 per cent to change, "safe" seats require a swing of 10 to 20 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.
| Liberal/National seats Marginal Frankston East Peter McLellan LIB 0.2% Geelong Ann Henderson LIB 0.7% Bendigo West Max Turner LIB 1.1% Essendon Ian Davis LIB 1.2% Tullamarine Bernie Finn LIB 1.5% Ballarat East Barry Traynor LIB 1.6% Ballarat West Paul Jenkins LIB 2.7% Oakleigh Denise McGill LIB 2.9% Ivanhoe Vin Heffernan LIB 4.3% Cranbourne Gary Rowe LIB 4.7% Monbulk Steve McArthur LIB 5.3% Narracan John Delzoppo LIB 5.4% Fairly safe Knox Hurtle Lupton LIB 6.1% Berwick Robert Dean LIB 7.0% Ripon Steve Elder LIB 7.1% Bayswater Gordon Ashley LIB 7.1% Mordialloc Geoff Leigh LIB 7.3% Prahran Don Hayward LIB 7.8% Bellarine Garry Spry LIB 7.9% Bentleigh Inga Peulich LIB 8.2% Mitcham Roger Pescott LIB 8.5% Bendigo East Michael John LIB 9.1% Burwood Jeff Kennett LIB 9.3% Safe Eltham Wayne Philips LIB 10.0% Mooroolbark Lorraine Elliott LIB 10.1% South Barwon Alister Paterson LIB 10.8% Seymour Marie Tehan LIB 11.0% Bennettswood Geoff Coleman LIB 11.8% Dromana Tony Hyams LIB 12.0% Gisborne Tom Reynolds LIB 12.9% Mornington Robin Cooper LIB 12.9% Box Hill Robert Clark LIB 13.2% Caulfield Ted Tanner LIB 13.9% Wantirna Kim Wells LIB 14.1% Pakenham Rob Maclellan LIB 14.4% Benambra Tony Plowman LIB 14.7% Evelyn Jim Plowman LIB 15.2% Forest Hill John Richardson LIB 15.3% Polwarth Ian Smith LIB 15.8% Warrandyte Phil Honeywood LIB 16.7% Portland Denis Napthine LIB 17.1% Frankston Graeme Weideman LIB 17.5% Gippsland West Alan Brown LIB 17.9% Doncaster Victor Perton LIB 18.1% Bulleen David Perrin LIB 18.2% Hawthorn Phil Gude LIB 18.4% Glen Waverley Ross Smith LIB 19.5% Shepparton Don Kilgour NAT 19.5% Sandringham Murray Thompson LIB 19.9% Very safe Benalla Pat McNamara NAT 20.8% Mildura Craig Bildstien LIB 20.9% Kew Jan Wade LIB 21.5% Malvern Robert Doyle LIB 22.5% Brighton Alan Stockdale LIB 22.8% Gippsland East David Treasure NAT 23.4% Gippsland South Peter Ryan NAT 23.9% Murray Valley Ken Jasper NAT 24.0% Warrnambool John McGrath NAT 25.8% Rodney Noel Maughan NAT 26.0% Swan Hill Barry Steggall NAT 29.4% Wimmera Bill McGrath NAT 29.6% | Labor seats Marginal Dandenong North Jan Wilson ALP 0.1% Carrum Mal Sandon ALP 0.9% Bundoora Sherryl Garbutt ALP 1.1% Yan Yean Andre Haermeyer ALP 1.9% Dandenong John Pandazopoulos ALP 3.1% Niddrie Bob Sercombe ALP 3.6% Morwell Keith Hamilton ALP 4.0% Albert Park John Thwaites ALP 5.8% Fairly safe Pascoe Vale Kelvin Thomson ALP 8.0% Springvale Eddie Micallef ALP 8.0% Werribee Ken Coghill ALP 8.3% Clayton Gerard Vaughan ALP 8.4% Keilor George Seitz ALP 8.9% Geelong North Peter Loney ALP 9.6% Safe Melton David Cunningham ALP 10.0% Altona Carole Marple ALP 10.9% Williamstown Steve Bracks ALP 11.0% Coburg Tom Roper ALP 11.2% Melbourne Neil Cole ALP 12.1% Mill Park Alex Andrianopoulos ALP 12.3% Richmond Demetri Dollis ALP 13.3% Sunshine Ian Baker ALP 13.3% Williamstown Joan Kirner ALP 14.2% Northcote Tony Sheehan ALP 15.2% Footscray Bruce Mildenhall ALP 16.2% Preston Michael Leighton ALP 16.2% Coburg Carlo Carli ALP 16.3% Broadmeadows John Brumby ALP 16.8% (primary) Broadmeadows Jim Kennan ALP 19.4% Very safe Thomastown Peter Batchelor ALP 20.0% Niddrie Rob Hulls ALP Unopp |