# Post-election pendulum for the 2009 Queensland state election

The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the 2009 Queensland state election.
"Very safe" seats require a swing of over 20 per cent to change, "safe" seats require a swing of 10 to 20 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.
* Labor seats (51)
* Marginal
* Chatsworth
* Steven Kilburn
* ALP
* 0.1%
* Everton
* Murray Watt
* ALP
* 1.4%
* Broadwater
* Peta-Kaye Croft
* ALP
* 2.0%
* Cook
* Jason O'Brien
* ALP
* 2.2%
* Barron River
* Steve Wettenhall
* ALP
* 2.3%
* Whitsunday
* Jan Jarratt
* ALP
* 3.2%
* Toowoomba North
* Kerry Shine
* ALP
* 3.2%
* Southport
* Peter Lawlor
* ALP
* 3.5%
* Townsville
* Mandy Johnstone
* ALP
* 4.0%
* Springwood
* Barbara Stone
* ALP
* 4.1%
* Cairns
* Desley Boyle
* ALP
* 4.2%
* Mansfield
* Phil Reeves
* ALP
* 4.4%
* Ferny Grove
* Geoff Wilson
* ALP
* 4.5%
* Kallangur
* Mary-Anne O'Neill
* ALP
* 4.6%
* Pine Rivers
* Carolyn Male
* ALP
* 4.6%
* Mount Ommaney
* Julie Attwood
* ALP
* 4.8%
* Burleigh
* Christine Smith
* ALP
* 4.9%
* Pumicestone
* Carryn Sullivan
* ALP
* 5.0%
* Mount Coot-tha
* Andrew Fraser
* ALP
* 5.2%
* Redcliffe
* Lillian van Litsenburg
* ALP
* 5.6%
* Mount Isa
* Betty Kiernan
* ALP
* 5.7%
* Fairly safe
* Brisbane Central
* Grace Grace
* ALP
* 6.0%
* Albert
* Margaret Keech
* ALP
* 6.5%
* Mundingburra
* Lindy Nelson-Carr
* ALP
* 6.6%
* Greenslopes
* Cameron Dick
* ALP
* 6.9%
* Ashgrove
* Kate Jones
* ALP
* 7.1%
* Murrumba
* Dean Wells
* ALP
* 7.2%
* Stafford
* Stirling Hinchliffe
* ALP
* 7.3%
* Keppel
* Paul Hoolihan
* ALP
* 7.6%
* Bulimba
* Di Farmer
* ALP
* 7.8%
* Mulgrave
* Curtis Pitt
* ALP
* 8.1%
* Thuringowa
* Craig Wallace
* ALP
* 8.5%
* Yeerongpilly
* Simon Finn
* ALP
* 8.7%
* Morayfield
* Mark Ryan
* ALP
* 9.1%
* Algester
* Karen Struthers
* ALP
* 9.2%
* Stretton
* Stephen Robertson
* ALP
* 9.5%
* Ipswich West
* Wayne Wendt
* ALP
* 9.5%
* Capalaba
* Michael Choi
* ALP
* 9.7%
* Safe
* Sunnybank
* Judy Spence
* ALP
* 10.8%
* Lytton
* Paul Lucas
* ALP
* 12.2%
* Sandgate
* Vicky Darling
* ALP
* 12.4%
* Logan
* John Mickel
* ALP
* 13.9%
* Nudgee
* Neil Roberts
* ALP
* 14.3%
* South Brisbane
* Anna Bligh
* ALP
* 15.0%
* Waterford
* Evan Moorhead
* ALP
* 16.5%
* Mackay
* Tim Mulherin
* ALP
* 16.7%
* Ipswich
* Rachel Nolan
* ALP
* 16.7%
* Rockhampton
* Robert Schwarten
* ALP
* 17.9%
* Very safe
* Bundamba
* Jo-Ann Miller
* ALP
* 21.2%
* Inala
* Annastacia Palaszczuk
* ALP
* 21.5%
* Woodridge
* Desley Scott
* ALP
* 25.4%
* Liberal National seats (31)
* Marginal
* Redlands
* Peter Dowling
* LNP
* 0.1%
* Cleveland
* Mark Robinson
* LNP
* 0.3%
* Mirani
* Ted Malone
* LNP
* 0.6%
* Gaven
* Alex Douglas
* LNP
* 0.7%
* Coomera
* Michael Crandon
* LNP
* 1.9%
* Burdekin
* Rosemary Menkens
* LNP
* 3.1%
* Mudgeeraba
* Ros Bates
* LNP
* 3.9%
* Aspley
* Tracy Davis
* LNP
* 4.5%
* Dalrymple
* Shane Knuth
* LNP v ONP
* 4.5%
* Glass House
* Andrew Powell
* LNP
* 5.8%
* Clayfield
* Tim Nicholls
* LNP
* 5.8%
* Indooroopilly
* Scott Emerson
* LNP
* 5.9%
* Fairly safe
* Bundaberg
* Jack Dempsey
* LNP
* 6.0%
* Caloundra
* Mark McArdle
* LNP
* 6.2%
* Hervey Bay
* Ted Sorensen
* LNP
* 6.5%
* Currumbin
* Jann Stuckey
* LNP
* 6.9%
* Kawana
* Jarrod Bleijie
* LNP
* 6.9%
* Lockyer
* Ian Rickuss
* LNP
* 7.6%
* Toowoomba South
* Mike Horan
* LNP
* 8.2%
* Beaudesert
* Aidan McLindon
* LNP
* 8.3%
* Safe
* Mermaid Beach
* Ray Stevens
* LNP
* 10.8%
* Burnett
* Rob Messenger
* LNP
* 11.1%
* Moggill
* Bruce Flegg
* LNP
* 11.3%
* Condamine
* Ray Hopper
* LNP v IND
* 11.6%
* Maroochydore
* Fiona Simpson
* LNP
* 12.8%
* Gregory
* Vaughan Johnson
* LNP
* 14.3%
* Buderim
* Steve Dickson
* LNP
* 14.3%
* Hinchinbrook
* Andrew Cripps
* LNP
* 14.7%
* Surfers Paradise
* John-Paul Langbroek
* LNP
* 16.5%
* Callide
* Jeff Seeney
* LNP
* 19.4%
* Noosa
* Glen Elmes
* LNP
* 19.8%
* Very safe
* Southern Downs
* Lawrence Springborg
* LNP
* 21.1%
* Warrego
* Howard Hobbs
* LNP
* 24.3%
* Gympie
* David Gibson
* LNP
* 27.3%
* Others (7)
* Nanango
* Dorothy Pratt
* IND v LNP
* 2.9%
* Gladstone
* Liz Cunningham
* IND v ALP
* 6.1%
* Nicklin
* Peter Wellington
* IND v LNP
* 16.3%
* Maryborough
* Chris Foley
* IND v LNP
* 16.8%