# Second Trump tariffs

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The second Trump tariffs are protectionist trade initiatives announced by United States President Donald Trump during his second administration. Trump has long promoted import tariffs as a method for negotiating deals and retaliating against countries he accuses of "ripping off" the U.S. Shortly after his reelection, he used authority granted by the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs on several countries without congressional involvement, framing the actions as a way to hold these countries accountable for the spread of contraband drugs while also addressing concerns about illegal immigration and a need to boost domestic manufacturing.
While Trump's first administration imposed tariffs on approximately $380 billion of imports, his second administration is expected to exceed $1.4 trillion by April 2025. A 25% global tariff on steel and aluminum products took effect on March 12, 2025. Trump announced additional sectoral tariffs, as well as a global reciprocal tariff policy, will begin April 2, 2025.
In his second term, Trump resumed a trade war with China and initiated a second one with Canada and Mexico. On March 4, 2025, Trump raised the tariff on all Chinese goods to 20%. He also imposed a 25% tariff on all Canadian and Mexican goods, aside from 10% on Canadian energy, but later exempted all USMCA-compliant goods until April 2. Canada, China, and the European Union have announced counter tariffs, while other countries began proactive negotiations with Trump to prevent additional tariff disputes.

## Background

Since the 1980s, Trump has advocated for import tariffs as a tool to regulate trade and retaliate against foreign nations that he believes have been "ripping off" Americans. In his campaigns for U.S. presidency, Trump promised to use tariffs to achieve a wide range of goals including preventing war, reducing trade deficits, improving border security, and subsidizing childcare. Although Trump has said foreign countries pay his tariffs, U.S. tariffs are paid by U.S. consumers and businesses either directly or in the form of increased prices. Shortly after being reelected to a second term, Trump acknowledged that tariffs may cause "some pain" for Americans but insisted "it will all be worth the price that must be paid".
During his first term, Trump imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, resulting in price increases for Americans. In December 2021, a metric ton of hot-rolled band steel was $1,855 in the U.S. compared to $646 in China and $1,031 in Europe. The World Trade Organization later ruled that the implementation violated global trade rules. While he and his first successor, Joe Biden, rolled back some of these tariffs, most remained in place by the start of Trump's second term. Trump also launched a trade war with China which subjected 60% of U.S.-China trade to 20% tariffs and was widely characterized as a failure for the United States.
In May 2019, Trump used tariff threats of up to 25% on Mexico to negotiate an expansion of his "Remain in Mexico" policy and the deployment of Mexican soldiers to help control illegal immigration. Mexico deployed nearly 15,000 troops to its border with the U.S. and 6,500 troops to its border with Guatemala. In 2020, the U.S., Mexico and Canada renegotiated NAFTA as the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) and recommitted to 0% tariffs on most products traded between them. Five weeks after the USMCA went into effect, Trump used an exemption for national security concerns to implement a 10% tariff on Canadian aluminum after claiming it was flooding the U.S. market. He withdrew the tariff a month later, three hours before Canada planned to retaliate.

## Planning

While campaigning for his second term as U.S. president, Trump vowed to implement even larger tariffs than his first term, including a 60% tariff on China, 100% on Mexico, and 20% on all other countries. He also proposed using tariffs to penalize American companies that outsourced manufacturing, such as imposing a 200% tariff on John Deere. Additionally, Trump suggested replacing income taxes with tariff revenue, an idea that economists from the Peterson Institute and the Tax Foundation deemed "mathematically impossible."
Trump appointed close economic advisor Peter Navarro as his Senior Counselor for Trade and Manufacturing. Navarro had been recently imprisoned for defying congressional subpoenas related to his role in attempts to overturn the 2020 election, including his "Green Bay Sweep" strategy. Navarro wrote books criticizing corporations for prioritizing profits over American jobs and argues traditional economic analysis overlooks the harm free trade can inflict on people's lives. He advocates a permanent regime of trade barriers to balance the trade deficit. Navarro had served in high-ranking trade roles during Trump's first term but was often rebuffed by free market-minded Trump administration officials such as Gary Cohn, who resigned in protest of Trump's 2018 steel and aluminum tariffs. The Financial Times reported Navarro would receive more influence and less opposition in Trump's second administration. Navarro began working closely with cabinet nominees Howard Lutnick and Jamieson Greer.
During his inaugural address on January 20, 2025, Trump pledged to "immediately begin the overhaul of our trade system to protect American workers and families. Instead of taxing our citizens to enrich other countries, we will tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens."

### Legality

During his first term, Trump placed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act (TEA). The act allows the U.S. President to modify imports without involving congress if the Secretary of Commerce conducts an investigation, holds public hearings, and determines that imports threaten national security. Trump renewed these tariffs in his second term while terminating prior exemptions. Trump also reinitiated investigations that he previously used to threaten tariffs under section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974.
At the start of his second term, Trump invoked the National Emergencies Act (NEA) and the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by declaring multiple "national emergencies" related to border security, illegal immigration, and energy. Declaring these emergencies allowed Trump to enact tariffs without involving Congress or following the procedures required by TEA or other trade statutes. While the IEEPA had been used for sanctions, it had never before been used for tariffs. As he signed the orders, Trump stated that declaring an emergency "means you can do whatever you have to do to get out of that problem."
To end a national emergency under the NEA, a member of Congress can file a privileged resolution requiring a congressional vote within 15 days. In February 2025, Democrats Tim Kaine and Mark Warner forced a vote on terminating Trump's national emergency on energy, but the Senate's Republican majority defeated it. Kaine and other Democratic representatives planned votes to end the emergencies used to justify tariffs on Canada and Mexico, but in March 2025, a provision in the special rule to consider the March 2025 continuing resolution blockes this process by declaring that the remainder of the year "shall not constitute a calendar day for purposes of section 202 of the National Emergencies Act".

## Multinational tariffs
### Steel and aluminum tariffs

On March 12, 2025, the U.S. imposed 25% tariffs on all imports of steel and aluminum. These tariffs were first announced by presidential proclamation on February 10, 2025. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated the U.S.'s goal was nurturing "a big, strong domestic steel and aluminum capability" and that Trump would soon add a tariff on copper as well. The EU and Canada immediately announced counter tariffs, while Australia, Britain, Japan and Brazil criticized Trump's actions but withheld retaliation.
Although Trump had imposed steel and aluminum tariffs during his first term, the renewal in his second term eliminated all of the many exemptions negotiated by either himself or Joe Biden and raised the aluminum tariff from 10% to 25%. The administration claimed that "by granting exemptions to certain countries, the United States inadvertently created loopholes that were exploited by China and others with excess steel and aluminum capacity". Trump also said he would require steel to be "melted and poured" and aluminum to be "smelted and cast" within the United States to qualify for duty-free status in order to prevent countries from circumventing tariffs.
The U.S. was the world's largest importer of steel at the time, importing about 23% of the steel it consumed. In 2024 Canada was the largest supplier, exporting 6 million metric tons, followed by Brazil with 4.1 million, Mexico with 3.2 million, and South Korea with 2.5 million. Canada was also the U.S.'s top supplier of aluminum at 3.2 million metric tons, accounting for more than 50% of aluminum imported into the US in 2024.

### Reciprocal tariffs

On February 13, 2025, Trump asked his staff to research custom reciprocal tariffs for every country, taking into account features like their existing tariffs, trade balances, and value-added taxes, and to report back in 180 days. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said his team would have a plan ready by April 1. Trump subsequently said reciprocal tariffs will go into effect on April 2, 2025. Bloomberg News suggested the "president’s decision not to implement tariffs right away could be seen as an opening bid for negotiation". Economists at Deutsche Bank estimated that a reciprocal tariff policy would raise the U.S. weighted average tariff rate from 1.5% in 2022 to 4.8%.

### Additional proposals
#### Digital Sales Tax investigation

On February 21, 2025, Trump issued a presidential memorandum ordering the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) as well as other officials, including Peter Navarro, to investigate digital service taxes (DSTs) and determine whether to take retaliatory action. A fact sheet accompanying the memo emphasized the European Union’s Digital Markets Act (DMA) and Digital Services Act (DSA) would face scrutiny.
DSTs are taxes on revenue from digital services such as online advertising and selling user data. These taxes allow countries to collect revenue from multinational companies that provide digital services in their jurisdiction. USTR investigations initiated during Trump's first term led to tariff threats on several countries under authority granted by section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. On October 8, 2021, over 135 countries participating in the OECD negotiations agreed on a two-pillar approach to reform and withdraw DSTs called the "Global tax deal". The Pillar One deadline was December 31, 2023, but was subsequently extended to December 31, 2024. As of January 2025, Trump withdrew from Pillar Two of the agreement and many countries' DSTs remain in effect.

#### De minimis exemption

Trump's February 2025 executive orders announcing tariffs on imports from China, Mexico and Canada initially suspended the U.S. de minimis exemption. The de minimis exemption waives standard customs procedures on low-value packages to reduce administrative burdens. U.S. Congress quadrupled the de minimis threshold from $200 to $800 in 2016, resulting in an over 1000% increase in shipments claiming the exemption by 2023. The U.S. exemption was among the highest globally, over 5x the size of the European Union's, and used by many companies to send goods to the U.S. without close inspection or taxes. The largest beneficiaries were Chinese e-commerce companies such as Shein and AliExpress. Some shipments were linked to drug trafficking. However, by February 7, 2025, Trump indefinitely reinstated the de minimis exemption for all three target countries to avoid overwhelming U.S. customs officials.

## Country-specific tariffs
### China

On February 1, 2025, Trump signed Executive Order 14195 establishing a new 10% tariff on all Chinese imports. The order, which went into effect on February 4, came at the behest of the National Security Council. On February 10 China retaliated with tariffs of 15% on coals and liquefied natural gas and 10% on oil and agricultural machines. China also added PVH Corp. and Illumina to the Unreliable Entity List, launched an antitrust investigation into Google, and added export controls to some metals including tungsten.
Capital Economics, a UK-based macroeconomic research consultancy, estimated that while the U.S. levied new tariffs on about $450 billion worth of Chinese goods, China's additional tariffs only targeted about $20 billion of U.S. goods. Julian Evans-Pritchard, the firm's head of China Economics, stated "The measures are fairly modest, at least relative to U.S. moves". Reuters said China's "limited" response "underscored an attempt by Chinese policymakers to engage Trump in talks to avert an outright trade war".
On March 4, 2025, Trump raised tariffs on Chinese imports again from 10% to 20%. In response, China announced the same day that it would impose a 15% tariff on U.S. chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton, as well as a 10% tariff on U.S. sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products, effective March 10, 2025. Additionally, China launched an anti-circumvention investigation into optical fiber products imported from the United States. The General Administration of Customs of China suspended U.S. lumber imports and revoked soybean import licenses for three U.S. firms.
Retailer Walmart had asked some Chinese suppliers to lower prices due to tariffs. On March 12, 2025, China's Ministry of Commerce held talks with Walmart, according to state media reports.

### Canada and Mexico

On November 25, 2024, after winning reelection, Trump announced a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico unless they took action against illegal immigration and drug trafficking, particularly fentanyl. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau sought to de-escalate tensions. While Trudeau noted that less than 1% of illegal border crossings and less than 1% of fentanyl into the U.S. come from Canada, he unveiled a $1.3 billion security plan for the Canada-U.S. border on December 16, 2024. Despite these efforts, on January 31, 2025 the U.S. confirmed the tariffs would take effect on February 4, with a reduced 10% rate for Canadian energy products. Bloomberg News reported that Trump advisors Peter Navarro and Stephen Miller led the economic discussions on the tariffs.
Trudeau and Sheinbaum condemned Trump's actions and threatened immediate economic retaliation, but on February 3 the three leaders negotiated a one-month delay on the tariffs. As part of the agreement, Mexico committed to deploying 10,000 troops to its border with the United States, while Canada pledged to appoint a "fentanyl czar" and continue implementing the border security plan announced in 2024. In return, Trump pledged to take measures to curb weapons trafficking to Mexico and to collaborate with Canada on a joint anti-crime "strike force". However, on February 27, Trump claimed "Drugs are still pouring into our Country from Mexico and Canada" and reaffirmed his planned tariffs, leading to their implementation on March 4, 2025. Canada retaliated with 25% tariffs on $20 billion (CA$30 billion) in U.S. goods, with plans to expand to $85 billion (CA$125 billion), while Mexico prepared its response for March 9. The Wall Street Journal warned the tariffs had "the potential to profoundly reshape relations between the U.S. and two of its biggest trading partners, abruptly reversing America’s decades-long project of expanding free trade with its allies."
The trade war triggered stock market declines and economic concerns, particularly for retailers and car manufacturers. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick quickly signaled potential tariff reductions. "The president is listening to the offers from Mexico and Canada. He’s thinking about trying to do something in the middle," he said on March 5. The same day, Trump delayed tariffs on USMCA-compliant automakers by 30 days. On March 6, tariffs on all USMCA-compliant goods—covering 50% of Mexican and 38% of Canadian imports—were delayed until April 2. The Mexican government expected the amount of compliant goods would increase to 85-90% within weeks. The tariff on Canadian potash was reduced to 10% Canada said it would maintain its initial tariffs but pause planned increases. Ontario briefly imposed a 25% surcharge on electricity sales to U.S. states, but suspended it after Trump threatened higher tariffs on Canadian metals and Lutnick agreed to discuss trade. After being impacted by the U.S.'s steel and aluminum tariffs on March 12, Canada added 25% tariffs on an additional $20.6 billion (CA$29.8 billion) of U.S. goods on March 13.

### Europe

Before his second inauguration, Trump threatened to impose tariffs on Europe unless it reduced its trade surplus with the U.S. by increasing imports of American cars, agricultural products, and oil and gas. The US and the European Union traded a record $1.6 trillion in 2023. The European Commission pointed out that while the U.S. ran a trade deficit with the EU in goods, it was offset by a trade surplus in services. On February 2, 2025, Trump told reporters he planned to impose tariffs on the European Union "pretty soon". He also suggested tariffs on the UK "might happen" but believed "that one can be worked out".
Some EU leaders threatened retaliatory tariffs while others expressed concerns about reigniting global inflation. "We have to do everything to avoid this totally unnecessary and stupid tariff war," said Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. On February 4, 2025, EU trade ministers met in Warsaw to discuss the U.S. president's threats. On February 7, 2025, the EU proposed lowering tariffs on car imports from 10% to a rate closer to the 2.5% tariff imposed by the U.S., a deal originally suggested in January by BMW CEO Oliver Zipse. The EU also offered to increase its purchases of liquefied natural gas and military equipment from the U.S. On February 25, French President Emmanuel Macron met with Trump at the White House and aimed to persuade him to refrain from initiating a trade war with Europe and to concentrate on China instead.
On March 12, the EU announced retaliatory measures in response to Trump’s new global steel and aluminum tariffs. On April 1, they plan to reinstate tariffs originally imposed in 2018 and 2020 as a reaction to Trump's first-term metal tariffs. These measures, worth €6.3 billion in 2018 but €4.5 billion in 2025 due to Brexit and reduced U.S. trade, were suspended in 2023 after negotiations with President Biden. By mid-April, the EU intends to implement additional measures targeting €18 billion of U.S. industrial and agricultural goods, including steel, aluminum, home appliances, wood products, poultry, beef, and other food imports. The UK refrained from retaliation. United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer bemoaned that the European Union's retaliatory tariffs "completely disregards the national security imperatives of the United States – and indeed international security – and is yet another indicator that the EU's trade and economic policies are out of step with reality".
On March 13, 2025, Trump criticized the EU for imposing a 50% tariff on U.S. whiskey and threatened to retaliate with 200% tariffs on alcohol from the European Union.

### Other countries

On January 26, 2025, a dispute arose between Colombia and the U.S. after Colombian president Gustavo Petro refused to allow the landing of two U.S. military aircraft carrying deported Colombian nationals. Petro called the treatment of deportees on military flights undignified and said he would accept deportation flights on civilian planes. In response, Trump ordered retaliation against Colombia and its officials, including 25 percent tariffs that would increase to 50 percent in one week if Petro did not reverse his position. Petro responded by ordering a 25 percent tariff on the U.S. that would also increase to 50 percent. Hours later, the U.S. said Colombia had agreed to "unrestricted acceptance" of deportees, including on military aircraft. Colombia said it would "continue to receive" deported Colombians and would guarantee them "dignified conditions."
In November 2024 and again in January 2025, Trump warned BRICS countries that they would face 100% tariffs if they attempted to replace the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the White House in February to negotiate tariffs and work on a deal to double bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030. India reduced tariffs from 50% to 30% on motorcycles and from 150% to 100% on bourbon whiskey, promised to review other tariffs, and offered to increase imports of U.S. energy and defense equipment. Citi Research estimated India stood to lose $7 billion a year from Trump's reciprocal tariff proposals.

## Impact assessments
### United States

Although Trump's first term economic policy featured lower and more targeted tariffs with many exceptions, such as an exception for Apple products, Trump promised higher rates, broader impacts, and few exceptions in his second term. According to the Tax Foundation, the first Trump administration imposed new tariffs on approximately $380 billion worth of imports. Comparatively, the second Trump administration was expected to impact more than $1.4 trillion of imports by April 2025.
At the start of his second term, confusion over rapidly fluctuating tariff levels as well as other economic policies created significant uncertainty for businesses and economists. U.S. GDP grew by 2.8% in 2024, the year before Trump’s inauguration. In March 2025, the Federal Reserve lowered its 2025 growth forecast from 2.1% to 1.7%, while the OECD projected a decline to 2.2% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026. The Federal Reserve also increased average inflation expectations from 2.5% to 2.7%.
The expected impact of tariffs the threatened 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods is high. Grocery prices were expected to rise as 2/3 of U.S. vegetable imports came from Mexico. PIIE estimated that such a tariff retained through 2029 would reduce the gross domestic product of the United States by US$200 billion. According to the Budget Lab at Yale University, American households would lose approximately US$1,200 in purchasing power.
The Council on Foreign Relations notes the energy sector of the American economy is expected to be among the most impacted by tariffs. A 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports is expected to increase energy prices for American consumers, in part, because Canada is the biggest supplier of energy to the United States, including 61 percent of crude oil imports in 2021. American refineries, particularly in the Midwest, rely on crude oil to process into gasoline, and projections indicate that gas prices could increase up to 50 cents per gallon in the region due to tariffs. On February 2, 2025, Canadian company Irving Oil released a statement, noting, “The majority of the product produced at our Saint John refinery is bound for the U.S. market… This tariff will result in price increases for our U.S. customers and have impacts on energy security and the broader economy.” During his campaign, Trump promised voters he would cut energy prices in half during his first year in office.
Economist Michael Hudson has argued that the tariffs have the potential to disrupt the global economy by disrupting the balance of payments between the United States and its foreign debtors. By reducing the export trade between the United States and countries targeted by the tariffs and raising the cost of dollar-denominated goods, the US makes it more difficult for those countries to pay their dollar debts. Hudson believes this could cause a debt crisis, and compares it to the historical examples of the Latin American debt crisis and the inter-allied repayment of loans during the World Wars.

### China

Nomura Holdings estimated that eliminating the U.S. de minimis exemption for Chinese goods "would slow Chinese export growth by 1.3 percentage points and GDP growth by 0.2 point". When the U.S. Congress raised the de minimis limit from $200 to $800 in 2016, they sparked a surge in U.S. imports of cheap Chinese goods. A 2023 U.S. House Select Committee report estimated that "nearly half" of all de minimis shipments originated from China and that Chinese e-commerce companies. Temu and Shein, estimated to comprise more than 30% of daily de minimis exemptions to the U.S., onboarded more sellers with a physical presence in the U.S. and expanded their distribution facilities beyond China to mitigate the impact of losing the U.S. de minimis exemption.
On February 7, 2025, Trump suspended closing the exemption for China until the Secretary of Commerce notified him that adequate systems to process and collect tariff revenue were in place.

### Other countries

Ontario Premier Doug Ford stated that the tariffs would likely impact around half a million jobs in the province's automotive industry. Peterson Institute Director of Studies Marcus Nolands believed the tariffs would cause deindustrialization in Mexico.

## Summary table

Enacted U.S. tariffs :
| Tariff | Announced | Effective | Status | Notes | Ref |
| 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum products | February 10, 2025 | March 12, 2025 | In effect | | |
| 25% tariff on most Canadian goods | February 1, 2025 | March 4, 2025 | Partially in effect | On March 6, tariffs on USMCA-compliant goods were delayed until April 2. 38% of Canadian goods were compliant in 2024. Potash tariff lowered to 10%. | |
| 10% tariff on Canadian oil and gas | February 1, 2025 | March 4, 2025 | Delayed | Tariff suspended until April 2. | |
| 20% tariff on all Chinese goods | February 1, 2025 | February 4, 2025; Increased March 4, 2025 | In effect | Increased from 10% to 20% on March 4 | |
| 25% tariff on all Mexican goods | February 1, 2025 | March 4, 2025 | Partially in effect | On March 6, tariffs on USMCA-compliant goods were delayed until April 2. 50% of Mexican goods were compliant in 2024, but Mexico planned to increase to 85%-90%. | |
| Proposed U.S. tariffs ||||||
| Reciprocal tariffs | February 13, 2025 | | | Trump admin says reciprocal tariffs will begin April 2 | |
| Tariffs on all EU goods | February 2, 2025 | | | On February 2, 2025, Trump told reporters he planned to impose tariffs on the European Union "pretty soon". On March 13, he threatened a 200% tariff on EU alcohol. | |
| Digital Service Taxes (DSTs) | February 21, 2025 | | | Trump directed USTR to initiate Section 302 investigation into DSTs, particularly against France, Austria, Italy, Spain, Turkey, and the UK | |
| Copper | | | | Trump directed Commerce Secretary to initiate Section 232 investigation into copper imports. | |
| Timber and Lumber | March 1, 2025 | | | Trump directed Commerce Secretary to initiate Section 232 investigation into timber and lumber imports. | |
| Foreign retaliation ||||||
| Country/Region | Announced | Effective | Status | Notes | Ref |
| Canada | February 1, 2025 | March 4, 2025 | In effect | 25% on CA$30 bn (US$20.8 bn) of U.S. goods in effect. A planned expansion to an additional CA$125 bn (US$86 bn) worth of U.S. goods was suspended on March 6. | |
| Canada | March 12, 2025 | March 13, 2025 | In effect | 25% tariffs on CA$29.8 bn (US$20.6 bn) of U.S. goods: CA$12.6 bn (US$8.7 bn) steel products, CA$3 bn (US$2 bn) aluminum products, and CA$14.2 bn (US$9.9 bn) misc. goods. | |
| China | February 1, 2025 | February 4, 2025 | In effect | 15% tariff on coals and liquefied natural gas, 10% on oil and agricultural machines, and investigations on U.S. companies. | |
| China | March 4, 2025 | March 10, 2025 | In effect | 10-15% tariffs on U.S. meat and agricultural products, suspension of U.S. lumber imports, revocation of soybean import licenses for 3 U.S. firms. | |
| European Union | March 12, 2025 | April 1, 2025 | Planned | Two phase plan of 1) tariffs on €4.5 bn of U.S. consumer goods on Apr 1 and 2) €18 bn of U.S. steel and agricultural products mid-April. | |