# Timeline of events related to the 2025 United States trade war with Canada

The following article is a broad timeline of the course of events surrounding the 2025 United States trade war with Canada and Mexico.

## U.S. tariffs and Canadian retaliatory tariffs

United States tariffs :
| Tariff | Announced | Effective | Status | Delayed |
| 25% tariff on most Canadian goods | February 1, 2025 | March 4, 2025 | Partially in effect | On March 6, Trump delayed tariffs until April 2 on goods that are protected under the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) representing 38% of Canadian goods as of 2024. This 30-day reprieve on tariffs was intended to "minimize disruption to the [American] automotive industry". |
| 10% tariff on Canadian oil, gas, and potash | February 1, 2025 | March 4, 2025 | Delayed | Tariff delayed until April 2. On March 6, tariff on Canadian potash lowered to 10% tariff.| |
| 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum products | February 10, 2025 | March 12, 2025 | In effect | Admin plans to eventually include copper. |
| Proposed U.S. tariffs ||||||
| Reciprocal tariffs | February 13, 2025 | | | Trump admin says reciprocal tariffs will begin April 2 |
| Canadian lumber | March 1, 2025 | | | Trump asked Lutnick to investigate whether imports of lumber threaten America’s national security. |
| Canadian retaliatory tariffs on U.S. ||||||
| Canadian retaliation | Announced | Effective | Status | Notes |
| 25% on CA$30 bn (US$20.8 bn) of U.S. goods in effect. | February 1, 2025 | March 4, 2025 | In effect | 25% on CA$30 bn (US$20.8 bn) of U.S. goods in effect. A planned expansion to an additional CA$125 bn (US$86 bn) worth of U.S. goods was delayed on March 6. |
| 25% tariffs on CA$29.8 bn (US$20.6 bn) of U.S. goods: CA$12.6 bn (US$8.7 bn) steel products, CA$3 bn (US$2 bn) aluminum products, and CA$14.2 bn (US$9.9 bn) misc. goods. | March 12, 2025 | March 13, 2025 | In effect | 25% tariffs on CA$29.8 bn (US$20.6 bn) of U.S. goods: CA$12.6 bn (US$8.7 bn) steel products, CA$3 bn (US$2 bn) aluminum products, and CA$14.2 bn (US$9.9 bn) misc. goods. |

## 2024

* February 21, 2024 The bilateral trade relationship between the United States and Canada is one of the world's largest.$^{:1}$ Canada is the United States' largest customer—buying "more from American businesses than the UK, France, China and Japan combined". In 2023, a total of US$923 billion goods and services were traded.$^{:1}$ Both the energy and automotive markets are highly integrated.$^{:1}$ According to a CRS report based on U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data, taking into consideration both goods and services, in 2023, Canada was the United States' largest trading partner with U.S. imports from Canada valued at US$482 billion and U.S. exports to Canada valued at US$441 billion resulting a US$41 billion shortfall with Canada. The 2024 US$45 billion trade deficit with Canada in 2024 is the second smallest of all American trade deficits, representing 4% of the overall U.S. trade deficit. Reduction of Canadian imports "would barely move the needle", according to Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) economists.
* October 15, 2024 In an interview with Bloomberg News editor John Micklethwait at the Economic Club of Chicago on October 15, 2024, then-presidential candidate Donald Trump outlined his economic strategy, emphasizing the use of "draconian" tariffs as a key component to fund his proposed tax cuts, which would incentivize companies to invest in manufacturing within the United States.
* November 25 In a post on Truth Social, Trump announced that one of his first Executive Orders would impose and maintain a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico citing their alleged inadequate efforts to control their borders.
* November 29 Days after Trump's Truth Social post threatened 25% tariffs on Canadian imports, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Dominic LeBlanc, Canada's Finance Minister, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and others dined at Trump's Florida estate, Mar-a-Lago to discuss trade and tariffs.
* December 9 Then-President-elect Donald Trump referred to Trudeau as Governor of the Great State of Canada.
* Deecember 16 The Canadian Department of Finance announced initiatives in response to economic uncertainties following the 2024 United States presidential election including new tariffs on Chinese products.

## January 2025

* January 6 In a Truth Social post Trump made the false claim that "Many people in Canada LOVE being the 51st State." A CNN article on Trump's false claims about Canada, said that the 51st idea is "massively unpopular" in Canada— 85% are opposed and only 9% are in favor. It is one thing that politicians on left and right "vehemently" reject. In the same post, Trump said without evidence that by joining the U.S. as a state, Canada "would be TOTALLY SECURE from the threat of the Russian and Chinese Ships that are constantly surrounding them." Canada has never been surrounded as described. While there have been sporadic sightings of Russian and Chinese military ships and aircraft, as well as Chinese research vessels viewed with suspicion, in the vicinity of Alaska in recent years, these occurrences have been limited and monitored by Canadian and U.S. military forces.
* January 7 During a press conference at Mar-a-Lago, in response to a question by NBC correspondent Vaughn Hillyard, then President-elect Trump said he would not use "military force to annex and acquire" Canada but he would use "economic force". He said that getting "rid of that artificially drawn line"—the Canada–United States border— would improve national security. Trump said that the United States was subsidizing Canada by over US$200 billion annually through the U.S. trade deficit with Canada. Trump conflates the trade deficit with a subsidy. In 2024 the U.S. trade deficit with Canada in goods and services was US$35.7 billion—excluding services, it was US$70.6 billion according to official US statistics.
* January 15 A meeting convened by Prime Minister Trudeau with First Ministers was held to discuss the threat of tariffs by the United States, including revisiting the Canadian Free Trade Agreement (CFTA) that regulates interprovincial trade.
* January 20 In a memo President Donald Trump told officials to "assess the unlawful migration and fentanyl flows" from Canada, Mexico and China" and then "recommend appropriate trade and national security measures to resolve that emergency."
* January 22 A second meeting of First Ministers was held to prepare for a trade war and to discuss the removal of the 2017 detailed list of approximately 245 exemptions to the CFTA so Canadian consumers could trade goods and move workers between provinces.
* January 29 Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly met with United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington, D.C. in response to the threat of steep United States tariffs that could result in a trade war between the two countries. Joly expressed cautious optimism about a diplomatic solution to trade relations. Along with presenting details of Canada's initiatives in working with the United States to tackle illegal immigration and fentanyl at the border, she clarified that less than 1% of the fentanyl and less than 1% of illegal immigrants enter the United States through the Canadian border.
* January 31 Columbia University's economics professor and Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz said that "Virtually all economists think that the impact of the tariffs will be very bad for America and for the world...They will almost surely be inflationary...It's inconceivable that other countries won’t retaliate."

## February 2025

* February 1 At the beginning of his second non-consecutive term, President Trump signed three executive orders and a Fact Sheet under the authority of the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) declaring a national emergency. He announced that Canada and Mexico would be sanctioned with tariffs starting on March 4, citing an "extraordinary threat posed by illegal aliens and drugs" and their "series of failures" to "address the flow of narcotics into the United States". His E.O "Imposing Duties to Address the Flow of Illicit Drugs Across Our Northern Border" and Fact Sheet said that "Canada has played a central role in these challenges, including by failing to devote sufficient attention and resources or meaningfully coordinate with United States law enforcement partners to effectively stem the tide of illicit drugs."
       On CPAC, the Canadian parliamentary channel, Trudeau announced retaliatory 25% tariffs valuing CA$155 billion (US$107 billion) on products from the United States.
* February 2 The Royal Bank of Canada's Chief Economists said that the blanket 25% tariffs on all imports from Canada and the 10% tariff on energy products represented the country's largest trade shock in nearly 100 years" comparing it to the Smoot–Hawley Tariffs.
       Media outlets examine the disconnect between the E.O. and the nature of the changing grievances and lists of things that Trump wants.
* February 3 Trump announced a 30-day pause on Canadian tariffs.
       According to the Associated Press, in the 2024 fiscal year United States Customs agents "seized 43 lb (20 kg) of fentanyl at the Canadian border", "compared with 21,100 lb (9,600 kg) at the Mexican border," which represents less than one per cent of all fentanyl seized by US border agents imports coming into the United States and into the United States. CBC News reported that in 2024, Canadian border officials confiscated eight million grams of drugs that had been smuggled into Canada compared to five million grams entering the United States via Canada seized by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection.
       According to a 2025 CRS backgrounder report on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), since Trump is the first president to use the IEEPA to impose tariffs, open questions remain about the "scale and scope of what tariffs might be authorized under the statute."$^{:26}$
       A series of "high-stakes" phone calls between Trump and Trudeau and between other officials took place. Trump cited a memo which included a list of grievances with Canada that were unrelated to trade, such as renegotiating the Canada–United States border.
* February 7–8 According to a Bloomberg News/Harris poll in early February, approximately 60% of Americans believe high tariffs would cause consumer prices to rise.
* February 10 A 25% tariff on aluminum and steel is announced in an Executive Order that cited an update on a 2018 report that said that the significant increase in steel imports from Canada, Mexico and other countries to "once again threaten to impair U.S. national security." Canada is the largest supplier of steel and aluminum to the United States, representing 22% of steel imports and 47% of aluminum imports in 2022. See also 2002 United States steel tariff. }}
       In response to the tariffs on steel and aluminium, Trudeau, who was in Paris at an international conference on artificial intelligence, said that the tariffs were ""entirely unjustified." Canada and the European Union "vowed to retaliate firmly" according to France 24.
* February 11 Trump reinstated 25% tariff on steel imports and increased tariffs on aluminum imports to 25% on Canada and other countries.
       Trudeau announced the appointment of Kevin Brosseau as Canada's new Fentanyl Czar to work with Americans to "disrupt and dismantle this illegal drug trade crossing our border".
* February 14 Wells Fargo and Company economists warned in their February 14 memo, that "Tariff worries are real" as retail sales slumped.
* February 20 Details of the February 3 phone calls between Trump and Trudeau emerge.
* February 26 Trump suggest that a one-month reprieve on tariffs is possible with the sanctions on Canada and Mexico to begin on April 2.
* February 27 The Peterson Institute for International Economics cautioned that the cost of the combined tariffs to the typical American family would be over $1,200 a year, according to a February 27 Bloomberg News article.
       The Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) announced the launch of Operation Blizzard to respond to fentanyl smuggling. Since early February, CBSA and their partners made significant seizures at the Canada–United States border, including six seizures amounting to 1.98 oz (56 g) of fentanyl brought in by two US citizens. It only takes a few grams of fentanyl to cause death.
       A CBC News article listed the efforts Canada made in February alone. Royal Canadian Mounted Police Commissoner and CBSA president met with American officials to present "major successes" in decreasing the flow of drugs and migrants into the United States.
       In a reversal of his February 26 suggestions to the Cabinet to give a one-month reprieve to April 4, Trump announced that tariffs will go into effect March 4.
* February 28 In February the number of inbound trips by Canadians to the United Staes dropped by 20%.
* March 3 An amendment backtracked on the February 2 E.O. to allow some de minimis trade rule treatment.
       Trump announced that 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada that he had threatened, then delayed from the earlier February 4 date, would enter into force on March 4. Along with the increase of tariffs on China from 10% to 20% set to take place the same day, this caused the U.S. stock market to drop considerably: the S&P 500 index fell by 1.8%, while the Nasdaq-100 index fell by 2.6%. By March 6, the S&P 500 had lost almost all of its gains since November 2024.
       The Economist described Trump's tariffs as aggressive and erratic, and said that they would "cause lasting damage at home and abroad".
       William Reinsch of the Center for Strategic and International Studies contrasted the current trade war with Trump's first in 2018-2019, which economist say will be much more costly.
       According to an Associated Press article, if Trump substitutes tariff revenue for income taxes, tariffs would remain in place inspite of demands being met.
       KPMG's chief economist Diane Swonk said Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" witrh "multiple countries at the same time" means that the "rest of the world" could retaliate.
       Brian Bethune, an economist at Boston College said that Trump’s tariffs could "push up mortgage and loan borrowing rates ... and reduce real growth."
* March 4 Department of Finance Canada published a detailed list of retaliatory tariffs.
       A CBC News article said that, "The notion that the flow of illegal fentanyl across the U.S. border with Canada could somehow justify punitive tariffs on Canadian imports was always flimsy, at best."
       Reporting from Brussels on March 4, a POLITICO article cited a European Union executive who said the tariffs put global trade at risk, harms economic partnerships, and incites "unnecessary uncertainty at a time when international cooperation is more crucial than ever." The Chair of the European Parliament international trade committee said that the tariffs were "incomprehensible", "illegal and completely unjustified". He said that there are only losers, no winners in a trade war and that "American companies, workers and consumers will suffer too."
       Leading American automobile industry lobbiest told Trump that 25% tariffs announced on March 2, would give the foreign automobile industry an advantage over American carmakers. They told Trump that the price of vehicles could rise as much as 25% and that this could take place "almost immediately".
* March 5 In a phone call Ford Motors' CEO Jim Farley and Executive Chairman Bill Ford, General Motors' CEO Mary Barra, and Stellantis' Chairman John Elkann asked Trump to give a reprieve on the 25% tariffs on imports related to the automobile industry that are in compliance with the rules under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement signed by Trump in 2020. Increased prices caused by tariffs because of the interconnected automobile industry's supply chain, could also lead to higher automobile insurance.
* March 6 A White House Fact Sheet announced that there would be a 30-day reprieve on tariffs to "minimize disruption to the [American] automotive industry". Potash tariffs were reduced to 10%. Details included the maintenance of 25% tariffs on goods ouside United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) rules; a reduction to 10% on Canadian energy products that are not protected under the USMCA; potash tariffs outside USMCA were reduced to 10%; all Canadian and Mexican goods regulated by USMCA will have no tariffs. The New York Times said that the abrupt suspensions of tariffs covered most Canadian and Mexican products.
       Canadian Finance Minister LeBlanc announced that Canada would postpone its intended second phase of retaliatory measures on C$125 billion worth of American goods, until April 2.
       A BBC article described the tariffs and rollbacks as causing "uncertainty for businesses and worried financial markets". The article also repeated economists' warnings that the tariffs would cause "severe economic downturns in Mexico and Canada" and higher prices for American consumers.
       In an interview with CNN's Christiane Amanpour Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly describes changes in trade talks following the February 3 phone calls between Trump and Trudeau.
* March 7
* The Canadian federal government announced the launch of Export Development Canada (EDC)'s Trade Impact Program (TIP) as part of an initial CA$6.5 billion, as well as an additional CA$5 billion over two years in support of Canadian businesses negatively impacted by U.S. tariffs.
       The New York Times, the Toronto Star, and Global News explained the expanding list of Trump's grievances that were not related to the border.
       A Bloomberg News article described the frequent reversals and rollouts, as "baffling" and ineffective.
* March 9 In his final speech as Prime Minister, Trudeau warned that Canada was facing an existential crisis because of Trump's tariffs.
       On March 9, 2025, Mark Carney was elected leader of the Liberal Party on the first ballot, winning 85.9% of the vote.
       During his victory speech, Prime Minister designate and the new leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, Mark Carney, confirmed that he would maintain the retaliatory tariffs announced by Trudeau.
       Bloomberg News said that while Trump is fulfilling a campaign promise to impose tariffs as his signature economic policy, he is using them to intimidate other countries as leverage in disputes unrelated to trade. In the 21st century global economy this represents a "dramatic shift" as most nation states with larger economies are working towards reducing, not increasing trade barriers.
* March 10 Trump's suggestion that there was a possibility of a recession in a Fox News interview is cited as causing investor fears and a decline in the S&P 500. Trade tensions are listed as one of the factors contributing to one of the worst single-day market performances since 2022. Since its peak in February, the S&P 500 lost US$4 trillion from the stock market sell-off.
* March 11 The S&P 500 dropped by 9% since its February 14 peak with the Nasdaq falling by 13%. According to the Economist, Trump's unpredictable trade policies, including tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico caused the sell-off. Europe stocks are having their "strongest run in over 15 years" outperforming the United States.
       Trump doubles the tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50% starting on March 12 allegedly in response to the province of Ontario's threat of a relaliatory 25% tariff on electricity from Ontario exported to three American states.
       Trump doubles the tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50% starting on March 12 allegedly in response to the province of Ontario's threat of a relaliatory 25% tariff on electricity from Ontario exported to three American states. The tariffs on electricity were suspended.
       The Canadian government sold US$3.5 billion worth of US Treasuries bonds to American investors.
       Trump falsely claims on his Truth Social platform, that Canada is "one of the highest tariffing nations anywhere in the world", that there are "250% to 390% [tariffs] on various U.S. dairy products", and that the U.S. is [[subsidizing Canada to the tune of more than 200 Billion Dollars a year". His claims were refuted by a CNN political correspondent in a list of Trump's false claims about Canada, many of which are related to the trade war with Canada. This included Trump's claim without evidence that Canada is "one of the highest tariffing nations".
* March 12 A separate set of tariffs—25% on Canadian steel and aluminum exported to the United States—go into effect at midnight following "back-and-forth" threats and reversals on March 11. In response, Canadian announced that retaliatory tariffs valuing CA$29.8 billion (US$20 billion) on steel, aluminum, cast iron products and more will come into effect on March 13.
* March 14 In his first speech after having been officially sworn in, Prime Minister Carney said that his first priority is to protect Canada's workers and Canadian households faced with the United States "unjustified foreign trade actions". He said that he and President Trump have shared goals—to protect our workers and their jobs. His first official trip is to Europe to discuss security reinforcement and trade diversification.
       Bloomberg reported that it only took 16 days for the S&P 500 index to slip into a correction—defined as a 10% decline from a recent high.
* March 15 Prime Minister Carney and Bill Blair, Canada's defence minister, are investigating alternatives to the planned procurement of U.S. based Lockheed Martin's F-35 Lightning II jets in response to Trump's policy shifts. Tensions over tariffs led to a rise in Canadian patriotism with consumers choosing to buy Canadian products and avoid American services and products.
* March 17 Prime Minister Carney met French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in France and London to discuss trade and security ties as a follow up to Trump's instigation of a trade war. In response to questions from the press, Carney said that in order for broader conversations between the United States and Canada on bilateral trade to take place, Trump had to stop the unhelpful and disrespectful comments about the 51st state.
       According to The Economist, the American economy was currently in a state of uncertainty, with both positive and negative indicators causing concern among economists and policymakers. President Trump's policies, particularly his push for higher tariffs, have led to a sharp decline in the stock market and increased economic policy uncertainty, wiping out previous gains and potentially impacting consumer spending and inflation.
       In an Asahi Shimbun article cited by The Economist, the Japanese newspaper's editorial board called Trump’s tariffs a "reckless manipulation of trade policy" that violate World Trade Organization (WTO) rules and bilateral trade agreements. The editors called on major countries to unite against the tariffs, to strengthen the WTO, and to uphold its rules.