# Tornado outbreak of March 13–16, 2025

From March 13 to 17, 2025, a historic and devastating tornado outbreak, the second-largest on record for the month of March, affected much of the Midwestern into the Eastern United States, with additional severe weather and impacts occurring on the East Coast as well. On March 13, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued a moderate risk for severe weather for portions of the Midwest and Southeast on March 14, with several strong to violent tornadoes later touching down, including ones that struck the cities of Rolla and Hartville in south-central Missouri and other communities in northern Arkansas. Other tornadoes that have occurred include multiple EF3 tornadoes that tracked through southern Missouri, with one prompting the issuance of a tornado emergency for Van Buren and Fremont, an EF2 tornado that struck Villa Ridge, Missouri followed by another EF2 tornado that moved into the Greater St. Louis area, a strong tornado that struck Cherokee Village, Arkansas among other communities, a low-end EF4 tornado that struck areas southwest of Franklin, Arkansas, a high-end EF4 tornado that caused catastrophic damage to a neighborhood northwest of Diaz, Arkansas, a low-end EF3 tornado that killed one person after ripping through a trailer park near Poplar Bluff, Missouri, and an early morning EF2 tornado that caused significant damage in Elliott, Mississippi. Overall, at least 10 people were killed in Missouri and at least three more in Arkansas.
On March 14, the SPC issued a moderate risk of severe weather for portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida panhandle, and a tornado-driven high risk for portions of Mississippi and Alabama for the following day, making it the third ever issuance of a Day 2 high risk (with the previous two being for April 7, 2006 and April 14, 2012). On March 15, PDS tornado watches were issued over parts of Louisiana and nearly all of Mississippi and Alabama as a tornado outbreak featuring "significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent," was expected throughout the afternoon and evening. In the early afternoon, a tornado emergency was issued for parts of Walthall, Lawrence, Marion, and Jefferson Davis counties in Mississippi as a large, violent EF4 tornado tracked through the area. Tornadoes continued in Mississippi and Alabama throughout the afternoon and evening, including one that struck Taylorsville, Mississippi, and another that went through Gordo, Alabama, just to the northwest of Tuscaloosa.
Overall, at least 42 people have died from both tornado-related and non-tornado related impacts across eight states. With a total of 102 tornadoes confirmed so far, the outbreak received a score of 134 on the Outbreak Intensity Scale (OIS), classifying it as a "historic" outbreak.

## Meteorological synopsis
### Background

Starting on March 7, 2025, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) began monitoring the threat of a large-scale trough ejection over the High Plains and Upper Midwest. As the threat was a full week out, large spread between models led to uncertainties as to upper-level and surface features, which prevented the SPC from having enough confidence to outline a risk area. On March 9, a 15% severe risk was introduced on March 14 over the Mississippi Valley and on March 15 over the South, which was upgraded to a 30% risk for both days starting on March 10, as multiple forecast models began coming into agreement for the threat of all hazards, including a supercell-focused mode potentially evolving into a QLCS threat. An outlook on March 11 described the March 14 system as "anomalously intense upper cyclone", with a second upper-level trough expected to produce severe weather on March 15.
On March 13, the SPC upgraded the risk for March 14 into a moderate (4/5) risk over parts of the Middle Mississippi valley, including much Illinois and Missouri, alongside small parts of Iowa, Kentucky, Arkansas, and Tennessee. This risk was described as a "regional outbreak of severe storms", driven by the risk of storms producing swaths of damaging winds potentially in excess of 65 kn (75 mph; 120 km/h) over the region, with areas further south expected to be conducive to the development of strong tornadoes later in the day. The outlook for March 15 was also upgraded to a moderate (4/5) risk, as an environment more conducive for significant tornadoes, as favorable wind profiles, alongside moderate instability, produced the conditions necessary for "robust updrafts and intense supercells". A conditional risk was also highlighted further north into Ohio and Kentucky, which were expected to face a primarily non-severe event, reliant on the intensity of convection further south that could stabilize the atmosphere.
At the 1730Z Day 2 outlook on March 14, a high (5/5) risk was introduced over parts of Mississippi and Alabama, driven by the risk of a tornado outbreak. This has been the third time that the Storm Prediction Center issued a high risk for its Day 2 outlook since 2006, the other two occurring on April 7, 2006 and April 14, 2012.

### March 14

The states of Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Mississippi were under a moderate risk for severe weather, as a strong negatively-tilted upper-level shortwave trough detected on satellite that morning was expected to produce an intense mid-level jet that followed its parent shortwave and move towards the center of the continental United States. These features produced strong ascent, which, alongside a powerful surface cyclone expected to form and move from the central High Plains towards the Upper Midwest, produced the conditions necessary for the development of significant severe weather. Over much of the middle Mississippi Valley, strong diurnal heating was expected to occur, which, alongside a low-level jet to aid boundary-level moisture, allowed for the development of surface-based storms, which were expected to produce a single fast-moving band of convection that was expected to produce gusts up to 80–100 mph (130–160 km/h) over the region.
Further to the southeast over Missouri, forecasters outlined the risk of more discrete thunderstorms developing on the northern edge of a more concentrated area of low-level moisture. These storms were expected to form into at least semi-discrete supercells due to the presence of strong upper-level flow and strong deep-layer shear. The HRRR model suggested that widespread supercells could develop late in the afternoon, potentially as far south as the border of Mississippi, Arkansas, and Tennessee, with soundings of other forecast models, including the NAM model, favoring the development of intense supercells capable of producing large hail of 2–3 in (5.1–7.6 cm) and potentially significant or intense tornadoes.
Throughout the lower Mississippi Valley, lesser forcing was expected to preclude any possibility of widespread severe weather, but forecasters noted that the atmosphere were capable of producing supercells, some of which had the hazard for large hail, damaging winds, or tornadoes, for any supercells that sustain themselves.
The first complex of storms had emerged by 10:25 a.m. Central Daylight Time (UTC–5) over southern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma, which moved into a region of high atmospheric stability and strong convective inhibition, with a minimal severe hazard risk expected to be limited to small hail up to 1.25 in (3.2 cm). The Storm Prediction Center was expecting the formation of an intense squall line to initiate between 3 and 5 p.m. that afternoon. In the evening, a PDS tornado watch was issued for an area in the Mississippi Valley, with severe thunderstorms expected to develop in conditions primed for supercells capable of producing strong, long-track tornadoes. As forecast, numerous supercells began developing across the main risk area, and began producing tornadoes, some of which have presumably been strong to intense.

### March 15

A large warm sector had developed over much of the Gulf Coast states, producing widespread dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s Fahrenheit. That morning, storms had begun developing across the northern edge of the area of elevated moisture. Temperatures to the south and east of these storms were expected to rise to the upper 70 °F (21 °C)s, with multiple bands of convection expected to initiate between 12 and 2 p.m. CDT. Moderate levels of instability, ranging from 1500–2500 J/kg, and elongated hodographs, forecasted to produce 400–500 m$^2$/s$^2$ storm-relative helicity in the first kilometer of the atmosphere, was expected to "favor the rapid development of intense supercells", and alongside strong Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) values of 5–10, were expected to produce numerous tornadoes, some of which may be long-track or violent, as the day progressed.
Further north, across northern Alabama and south central Tennessee, the consolidation of storms was expected to bound stronger tornadoes to an area further south, with the northern structure highlighted as a potential area for bowing segments and embedded supercells, prompting the SPC to highlight an area of higher wind risk over these areas. Across parts of Georgia and western South and North Carolina, a weakly unstable airmass alongside intense mid-level flow was expected to produce an environment capable of supporting supercell and line structures, with a risk highlighted for severe wind and tornadoes in the region. Storms from the previous day over the Ohio Valley was expected to continue east as the day progressed, producing a risk for hail and wind, but as the day progressed, forecasters noted the uncertainty of potential airmass recovery that could be conducive for a severe risk over Indiana and southern Michigan later that evening, with models only showing weak instability below 500 J/kg that morning. Soundings from Louisiana and Mississippi indicated that the warm sector included steep lapse rates of 7–8 degrees Celsius from the 700 to 500 millibar layer. A 125 kn (144 mph; 232 km/h) jet at 250 millibars was expected to strengthen the region's wind profile, which, in conjunction with a lower-level jet moving east throughout the day, produced an environment capable of all hazards, including the threat of strong tornadoes.

## Confirmed tornadoes

Confirmed tornadoes by Enhanced Fujita rating :
| EFU | EF0 | EF1 | EF2 | EF3 | EF4 | EF5 | Total |
| 0 | 17 | 45 | 27 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 102+ |

### Chesterfield–Bridgeton–West Alton, Missouri/Altamont, Illinois

Widespread damage to homes, outbuildings, power poles, and trees occurred, including some homes that had their roofs at least partially removed. The tornado also crossed a runway at the St. Louis Lambert International Airport. Preliminary information.

### Cushman–Cave City–Reyno–Corning, Arkansas

This intense, very long-tracked tornado touched just east of the White River, near Marcella, initially damaging trees as it passed near Bethesda. The tornado then damaged numerous homes and obliterated a double-wide mobile home before it entered Cave City. Here numerous homes were either damaged or destroyed, and scores of trees were uprooted or debarked. A double-wide mobile home was rolled on its side as it exited town, and additional tree damage was noted. Later, the tornado moved through the Reyno, destroying a power pole and six empty grain bins before weakening and causing scattered tree damage. It overturned a center irrigation pivot, snapped power poles, and damaged an outbuilding near US 67, spreading debris into a nearby field. The tornado then produced minor tree and structural damage before lifting just south of the Missouri state line. Preliminary information.

### Williford–Ravenden Springs, Arkansas/Fairdealing–Harviell, Missouri

This long-tracked EF3 tornado began in Arkansas before crossing into Missouri. Near Poynor, a manufactured home was overturned from its foundation, injuring a person inside. Large swaths of trees were downed across Ripley County, and additional outbuildings and homes were damaged by falling trees. Near the end of the path, multiple homes in and east of Fairdealing suffered severe damage, with their roofs being partially or completely destroyed. Preliminary information.

### Nuckles–Diaz–Tuckerman, Arkansas

This violent tornado first touched down at 11:17 p.m. CDT on March 14 in the small community of Departee near Departee Creek Road, initially snapping trees and causing damage to power poles nearby at a weaker intensity. Crossing Departee Creek, the tornado quickly strengthened to EF4 intensity as it entered Jackson County, destroying a well-built home, with surrounding structures sustaining EF3 damage. Moving northeast, the tornado impacted the town of Macks, before crossing the White River. Maintaining intensity, the tornado then struck Jacksonport and parts of Fitzgerald, causing EF3 and EF4 damage, where it tossed several cars and a dump truck several hundred yards from their initial location. Having narrowed in size by this point from a larger peak in width, the tornado caused high-end EF4 damage in Diaz to a well-built anchor-bolted home, which was completely leveled with its concrete slab foundation being mostly swept clean of debris. The tornado caused more damage in Campbell Station as it crossed Highway 367, before rapidly weakening and lifting just west of County Road 43 at 11:35 p.m CDT.
Despite the intensity, no fatalities were reported from this tornado, although one person did sustain injuries as a result. It was on the ground for 18 minutes for a total of 14.51 miles (23.35 km) and reached a maximum width of 1,760 yards (1,610 m). Preliminary damage surveys indicate the tornado peaked at high-end EF4 intensity with winds of 190 mph (310 km/h).

### Poplar Bluff, Missouri

This intense tornado touched down northeast of Fairdealing along County Road 462 at 12:27 am CDT and moved generally east-northeastward uprooting trees and inflicting minor damage to homes. After crossing Route M, the tornado strengthened to EF1 intensity, snapping and uprooting trees. As it approached Poplar Bluff, the tornado quickly strengthened EF3 intensity along County Road 450, sweeping away a block-foundation home and shifting an older home off its foundation, leveling it. One person was killed in the latter house. The tornado then continued east-northeastward at EF1 intensity, snapping or uprooting trees and flipping a mobile home onto its side. The tornado then re-intensified to EF2 strength, removing the roof and some of the siding off of a brick home. The tornado then impacted a group of duplex homes at low-end EF3 intensity, removing the roofs and knocking down the exterior walls of some of them. The tornado then approached and crossed US 67 at the Route PP exit at EF1-EF2 intensity, destroying multiple mobile homes and a garage, heavily damaging a church, and snapping and uprooting trees. The tornado then entered the western city limits of Poplar Bluff, damaging multiple businesses and ripping part of the roof off of the Poplar Bluff Early Childhood Center. It then impacted Three Rivers College, damaging apartment buildings and a church. The tornado then continued east-northeastward through the northwestern part of Poplar Bluff and crossed US 60/US 67 damaging apartment building, businesses, and vehicles, and snapping trees and power poles. It continued to snap trees and power poles as it moved through neighborhoods in the northern part of Poplar Bluff, which included trees falling on homes.
The tornado then crossed US 60, exited Poplar Bluff, and turned northeastward at EF1 intensity, uprooting dozens of trees and damaging the roof of a home. As it passed west of Rombauer, the tornado re-intensified to EF3 intensity, destroying a large portion of a shop-home, inflicting heavy roof and exterior wall damage to other homes, and uprooting more trees. The tornado then steadily weakened, ripping the roof off of a barn and uprooting numerous trees before dissipating at 11:47 p.m. CDT after traveling for 18.65 mi (30.01 km). It was on the ground for 20 minutes, had a peak width of 350 yd (320 m), and caused the aforementioned fatality.

### Kentwood, Louisiana/Society Hill–Carson, Mississippi

This violent tornado touched down in southeastern Louisiana's Tangipahoa Parish, affecting Kentwood before tracking into southern Mississippi. It primarily impacted Pike and Walthall counties. The tornado formed as part of a larger severe weather system monitored by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). At 12:51 p.m. CDT (1751Z), the SPC issued Mesoscale Discussion 204 concerning an ongoing tornado watch for south-central Mississippi. Weather radar observations from the WSR-88D system at KHDC in Hammond, Louisiana detected a rapidly intensifying tornadic circulation. Radar data showed rotation speeds exceeding 60 knots (31 m/s), with brief periods surpassing 90 knots (46 m/s). Additionally, a tornado debris signature was detected at altitudes over 25,000 feet, providing strong evidence of a significant tornado event in progress. Based on real-time radar analysis, the SPC classified the tornado as "intense to potentially violent." The storm system developed in an area characterized by a Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) value of 6-8 according to SPC Mesoanalysis, representing atmospheric conditions highly favorable for strong tornado formation.
After entering Marion County, Mississippi at EF3 intensity, the tornado produced significant damage to trees and homes, crossing through Whitebluff and crossing the Pearl River, and entering Jefferson Davis County, where further tree and structural damage occurred. Prior to entering Covington County, the tornado briefly weakened before significantly shrinking in size and reaching its peak intensity west of Collins, where a small home was destroyed with its concrete foundation swept clean of debris. This building, while not showing signs of structural decay, was determined to have fewer anchor bolts than is typical of modern construction, which prevented surveyors from assigning a higher rating. Damage here also occurred to a tractor-trailer, multiple mobile homes, and a metal building system. After this, the tornado continued tracking northeast, crossing US 84 before dissipating.

## Non-tornadic effects
### Winter storm
#### California

Very heavy snow fell in the Sierra Nevada of California on March 12 and 13, with the highest snowfall being 32 inches (81 cm) at Bear Valley. Multiple car crashes due to snow were recorded on I-80. Heavy rain caused mudslides in Southern California, with six rescues being conducted in San Jacinto.

#### Minnesota

Following record-breaking high temperatures achieved the previous day, heavy snow and blizzard conditions were expected across much of Minnesota starting on March 15. The heaviest snow was expected to occur on the northwestern quadrant of the cyclone, specifically across central and western Minnesota, where snowfall rates were expected to exceed 1 in (2.5 cm) per hour.

### Fire weather and dust storms

An extremely critical risk for fire weather was issued over much of the Southern Plains, including much of western Texas, eastern New Mexico, and central Oklahoma, as the trough was expected to produce widespread sustained winds of 30–40 mph (48–64 km/h), including frequent gusts of 50–70 mph (80–113 km/h) and occasionally up to 80 mph (130 km/h), over an area of low relative humidity. Leedey, Oklahoma was put under an evacuation notice due to a rapidly spreading wildfire. Students at Oklahoma State University were told to shelter in place due to a wildfire. Fires were reported in nine counties across Oklahoma, including Oklahoma County and much of the Oklahoma City metropolitan area. One person in the state was killed in a car crash due to smoke, and at least 170,000 acres of land have been burned. In total, 142 injuries and four fatalities were reported due to fires and high winds.
Four people were killed in car crashes near Amarillo, Texas as a dust storm hit the area. Over 100,000 power outages were reported in Texas and Oklahoma.
Another dust storm caused a multiple-vehicle collision on I-70 between Colby and Goodland, Kansas. At least 71 vehicles were involved, eight people were killed, and at least thirty were injured.
Dust and smoke caused particularly poor air quality in Kansas City, Missouri.

## Impacts and aftermath

Casualties by state :
| State | Deaths | Injuries |
| Alabama | 3 | |
| Arkansas | 3 | |
| Kansas | 8 | ≥30 |
| Mississippi | 6 | |
| Missouri | 12 | |
| Oklahoma | 4 | 142 |
| Texas | 4 | |
| North Carolina | 2 | |
| Total | 42+ | 180+ |
The "Wearin' of the Green" parade in Baton Rouge, Louisiana was postponed by one day due to the expected severe weather. Due to high non-thunderstorm winds, over 400 flights were cancelled at Dallas Fort Worth International Airport. Around 20% of flights at Lubbock Preston Smith International Airport were also canceled.
In Rolla, Missouri, significant damage occurred to eight businesses at a strip mall. Strong storms caused a roof collapse at a business in Canton, Illinois. Numerous signs were knocked over in Hanna City, Illinois. Heavy tree damage occurred in Elgin, Illinois, and four tornadoes were confirmed across the Chicago Metropolitan Area on the overnight of the 14–15, with over 500,000 Commonwealth Edison customers losing power. 99% of these outages were resolved by 7:30 p.m. on the 15th.
In Mississippi, widespread tornado damage occurred, with Governor of Mississippi Tate Reeves stating that "Grenada County was the hardest hit", with major damage occurring in Elliott and Gore Springs.
On March 17, days after the outbreak, ABC reported that the office of the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma, which had provided forecasts throughout the outbreak, was listed as a property to be terminated by the Department of Government Efficiency, an executive branch entity headed by Elon Musk. Tom Cole, the Republican representative for Oklahoma's 4th congressional district, stated that he had intervened in the matter and the office would not be closed; despite this, the office still appeared on the list of properties facing lease termination.