# 2025 Runcorn and Helsby by-election

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Runcorn and Helsby is expected in 2025. The constituency's MP, Mike Amesbury, was sentenced on 24 February 2025 to ten weeks in prison for assault, which was reduced on appeal to a suspended sentence. This would have triggered a recall petition, but Amesbury resigned his position on 17 March 2025.

## Background

Amesbury was first elected as Member of Parliament (MP) for Weaver Vale at the 2017 general election. Weaver Vale was abolished in the 2023 review of Westminster constituencies and largely replaced by the new constituency of Runcorn and Helsby. Amesbury was elected to represent Runcorn and Helsby at the 2024 general election with a majority of almost 15,000.

### Assault charges and resignation

In the early hours of 26 October 2024, Amesbury was filmed in Frodsham repeatedly punching a man. Pending an investigation, he was suspended from the Labour Party.
On 7 November 2024, Amesbury was charged with common assault. He pleaded guilty to assault and subsequently resigned from the Labour Party. On 24 February 2025, he was sentenced to ten weeks' imprisonment. On 27 February, an appeal was heard and the sentence was suspended, although no alteration to the length of the sentence was made. The Recall of MPs Act 2015 is triggered by any custodial sentence, even if suspended, meaning a recall petition would be initiated.
There were calls for Amesbury to resign, which would obviate the need for a recall petition and lead straight to a by-election. Labour and Reform UK called for a by-election.
On 10 March 2025, Amesbury said he would stand down at the earliest opportunity and he officially tendered his resignation on 17 March 2025, being appointed as Steward of the Chiltern Hundreds on the same day.

### Constituency profile

Runcorn and Helsby was created for the 2024 United Kingdom general election as part of the 2023 review of Westminster constituencies, mostly from the seats of Weaver Vale and Halton, with smaller parts of City of Chester and Ellesmere Port and Neston. The town of Runcorn represents approximately two-thirds of the seat, with the remainder primarily being commuter towns. It has been described as suffering the consequences of deindustrialisation.

## Campaign

The by-election has been characterised in the media as a fight between Labour and Reform UK. According to the William Hill bookmakers, as of 10 March, Reform UK were the favourites to win the by-election with 4/9 odds, compared to Labour at 7/4 and the Conservatives at 16/1.

## Candidates

The Conservative Party issued an invitation for by-election candidates to step forward in February, prior to Amesbury's sentencing. On 16 March, they announced Sean Houlston, a National Federation of Builders executive and former candidate for the neighbouring seat of Widnes and Halewood, as their candidate.
The Labour Party opened its candidate selection process on 8 March 2025, closed nominations on 9 March 2025. On 13 March, they announced Karen Shore, a former teacher and deputy leader of Cheshire West and Chester Council as their candidate.
The Green Party have again selected their general election candidate, Chris Copeman, a local councillor in Helsby.
On 8 March 2025, former British ambassador Peter Ford annouced his intention to stand for the Workers Party of Britain.

## Opinion polls

| Pollster | Client | Date(s) conducted | Sample size | Lab | Reform | Con | Green | Lib Dem | Others | Lead |
| FindOutNow | FindOutNow | 12–14 Mar 2025 | 147 | 33% | 36% | 12% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 3 |
| Lord Ashcroft | Lord Ashcroft | 3–12 Mar 2025 | 702 | 35% | 40% | 10% | 6% | 8% | 2% | 5 |
| 2024 general election | 2024 general election | 4 Jul 2024 | – | 52.9% | 18.1% | 16.0% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 1.4% | 34.8 |

## Previous result

General election 2024: Runcorn and Helsby :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Labour | Mike Amesbury | 22,358 | 52.9 | +4.1 |
| | Reform UK | Jason Moorcroft | 7,662 | 18.1 | +13.3 |
| | Conservative | Jade Marsden | 6,756 | 16.0 | −20.8 |
| | Green | Chris Copeman | 2,715 | 6.4 | +3.5 |
| | Liberal Democrats | Chris Rowe | 2,149 | 5.1 | −1.6 |
| | Liberal | Danny Clarke | 479 | 1.1 | N/A |
| | SDP | Paul Murphy | 116 | 0.3 | N/A |
| Rejected ballots | Rejected ballots | Rejected ballots | 171 | | |
| Majority | Majority | Majority | 14,696 | 34.8 | +22.9 |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 42,235 | 58.7 | −9.5 |
| Registered electors | Registered electors | Registered electors | 71,955 | | |
| | Labour hold | Labour hold | Swing | −4.6 | |
Changes are from the notional results of the 2019 election on the new boundaries.