# 2025 Shabelle offensive

The 2025 Shabelle offensive, also known as Operation Ramadan, is an ongoing military campaign in central Somalia, primarily in the Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle and Hiran regions. The offensive was launched by Al-Shabaab, a Jihadist militant group allegiant to Al-Qaeda, against the Somali National Army (SNA), African Union Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) forces, and allied Ma'awisley clan militias. The group seeks to regain territory lost in the 2022 Somali government/African Union offensive, particularly strategic towns and supply routes.
The offensive began on February 20, 2025, with coordinated attacks on multiple Somali military positions, which included ground assaults using car bombs. Al-Shabaab temporarily seized several towns before being repelled by government and allied militia forces. Subsequent attacks in late February targeted key locations such as Bal’ad, a district capital near Mogadishu. Both the United States and Ethiopia have conducted airstrikes against Al-Shabaab insurgents during the fighting.
The campaign is part of a broader escalation in Somalia’s insurgency, with Al-Shabaab attempting to exploit security gaps created by the withdrawal of Burundian troops from ATMIS. Thousands of Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) troops are reportedly preparing to deploy in an attempt to bolster SNA/AUSSOM forces. Analysts suggest the timing of the offensive may be linked to Ramadan and seasonal factors affecting militant operations.

## Attacks
### Initial attacks

On February 20, 2025, Al-Shabaab militants attacked four villages in the Middle Shabelle region with vehicles laden with explosives, they captured two villages before the Somali National Army repelled the Al-Shabaab militants from two villages in heavy fighting including the village of Ali Ahmed, where at least seven Somali National Army members were killed, twenty Al-Shabaab militants, and one local clan fighter were killed. Al-Shabaab militants used VBIED attacks, mortars, and attacked villages from all directions. Unnamed commanders of Al-Shabaab were killed in the village of Ceel Cali Axmed. Other villages like El Baraf were attacked, with fighting from pro-government Ma’awisley Abgal clan militia until they retreated and the village of El Baraf fell to Al-Shabaab with at least 93 pro-Government deaths.
In total, 130 Al-Shabaab militants were killed and the villages of El-Ali, Daaru Nicma, Ali Fooldheere, and Al Kawthar were taken from Al-Shabaab after brief moments of capture. Weapons, vehicles, and other military equipment were taken from Al-Shabaab militants after the confrontation though the exact amount of items were never specified.
According to General Ibrahim Mumin, the commander of the 3rd division of the Somali National Army, Al-Shabaab failed at its attempt at capturing major villages the Middle Shabelle region. Al-Shabaab has claimed they took over four military bases in the Middle Shabelle area and Ali Ahmed, Daru Nicma, Kevser and Ali Fol Dheer settlements. Dozens of Mogadishu administration soldiers were killed and injured in the attacks with Al-Shabaab releasing images of the attacks through their media outlet, Al-Kataib Media Foundation, with some officers being recorded as captured by Al-Shabaab.

### Later attacks and offensive
#### February

On February 25, a joint military operation by the Somali government and local forces in Hirshabelle state, south-central Somalia, resulted in the deaths of over 70 Al-Shabaab members. Many of the Al-Shabaab members were besieged and killed. On the same day, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for attacks in the Hiiraan and Middle Shabelle regions of Somalia, seizing weapons and military vehicles. Militants launched a surprise attack on the Aboorey area in Hiiraan, targeting Macawisley militia members and claiming to have inflicted casualties and captured vehicles, though militia officials also reported inflicting losses on the attackers. Simultaneously, Al-Shabaab assaulted multiple areas in Middle Shabelle, causing civilians to flee, and re-entered the El Ahmed and Al-Kowthar areas, establishing a continued presence. Rising fear is reported in Aadan Yabaal, formerly held by government forces and the Ma’awisley militia. Through these attacks, Al-Shabaab took two villages including Ali Ahmed.
On February 26, Al-Shabaab fighters attacked Balad district in the Middle Shabelle region early, entering the town from multiple directions and engaging Somali federal government forces in heavy fighting. While the extent of casualties remains unclear, government-run media reported that the attack was defeated. Al-Shabaab militants attacked military bases in the Balad district.
On February 27, mortar shells were fired from the Middle Shabelle area at Mogadishu ahead of a planned visit by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. On the same day, fighting began in the town of Balad.
On February 28, al-Shabaab militants captured Balad which is located 30 kilometers (18.6 miles) north of Mogadishu after storming a military base located near the town. The militants temporarily seized control of key government buildings and infrastructure, and also freed prisoners from the local prison before later withdrawing from the town.

#### March

On March 1, heavy clashes ensued between Somali forces and Al-Shabaab militants in Biyo Adde, a town in Middle Shabelle region, after Al-Shabaab launched an assault against government checkpoints, with Al-Shabaab publishing images of its fighters occupying the town.
On March 2, the Somali National Army completed an operation that killed around 40 Al-Shabaab members.
On March 3, the United States assisted with airstrikes against al-Shabaab during this operation near the El Baraf area in the Middle Shabelle region during clashes in Biyaadde according to an AFRICOM report, with Hirshabelle Vice President Yusuf Ahmed Hagar Dabageed saying "the fight will continue and will not stop until al-Shabaab is defeated.". On the same day, Al-Shabaab militants did coordinated attacks against Somali troops killing 60 Somali soldiers north of Mogadishu across several towns, though al-Shabaab claims they killed 100. These offensives have pushed closer to Mogadishu with these being the deadliest offensive by Al-Shabaab in several years. On the same day as well, Somali government forces, backed by local clan militias known as Macwiisley, repelled an attack by Al-Shabaab militants in the Boos-Hareeri area of the Adan Yabal district.
On March 4, al-Shabaab militants captured the village of War Ciise, located 25km from the provincial capital Jowhar, without a fight after Somali government forces fled, publishing images of militants patrolling the village.
On March 5, al-Shabaab militants continued their advance towards Mogadishu through the Middle Shabelle, after the capturing of Balcad they continued south to Mogadishu. That same day the Ethiopian Air Force conducted multiple airstrikes on Al-Shabaab targets in the Middle Shabelle region, marked Ethiopia’s first known aerial operation in Somalia in nearly two decades since its 2006 intervention against the Islamic Courts Union. However, despite airstrikes al-Shabaab militants have largely retained their positions, with ground offensives by Somali forces and allied Ma'awisley militias yet to dislodge Al-Shabaab from its newly captured territories.
On March 6, the federal government deployed reinforcements to Middle Shabelle region to intensify its military operations in the area against al-Shabaab. Federal government officials also visit the town of Bal'ad to boost morale of federal troops.
On March 7, al-Shabaab militants attacked and recaptured al-Kowthar in the Boos-Hareri area in the Aden Yabal district after battling Somali forces, killing several and injuring several, including Colonel Saney Abdulle. Several military vehicles were captured from the Somali soldiers by al-Shabaab including one with a Zu-23 anti-aircraft gun attached to it. The group also published images of its fighters in the town and the government militia base there. Al-Shabaab fighters also launched attacks on the Boos-Hareri village itself, with Harun Maruf reporting its re-capture. On the same day, the Somali Defense Minister Abdulkadir Mohamed Nuur confirmed Ethiopian airstrikes carried out against al-Shabaab militants in the Middle Shabelle with coordination from the Federal Government of Somalia. Former Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble stated that the Federal Government is currently facing a difficult situation and needs to cooperate with the opposition and the conservatives, otherwise the country will be taken over by Al-Shabaab. He also stated that apart from the Middle Shabelle region where heavy fighting is ongoing, there are fears that major battles will spread to other regions by Al-Shabaab. The Somalian government also banned weapons and military vehicles from entering Aden Adde International Airport driven by security concerns raised by the Americans.
On March 8, the Ethiopian Air Force continued its air strikes against al-Shabaab militants in the Middle Shabelle region in Somalia with cooperation from the Somali government. The Ethiopian government also deployed a large number of Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) near the border town of Ferfer in preparation for upcoming military operations targeting Al-Shabaab militants in the Hiiraan and Middle Shabelle regions. Near the Boos-Hareri region, Somali soldiers conducted a military operation killing 20 al-Shabaab militants. Al-Shabaab killed, Abukar Abdulle 'Garmaqate', a senior police commander and 1st Brigade commander of the Police, and overran the villages of Bursha Sheekh, Ceel Xarar, Laba Garas and Xaruur, located near the strategic town of Adale, approximately 70 kilometers northeast of Mogadishu. The militant also released images of their fighters in Balad during their temporary occupation of the town on February 28. Somalian officials also confirmed the death of Yusuf Dhegnaas, a senior Al-Shabaab leader, in a targeted airstrike in the El Ba'ad area of the Middle Shabelle region on March 5.
On March 9, Mukhtar Robow, Somalia's Minister of Endowments and Religious Affairs and himself a former deputy leader and former spokesman of Al-Shabaab before defecting in 2017, dismissed fears that Mogadishu could fall to Al-Shabaab militants in a statement, declaring that the group has lost its ability to mount a serious threat to the capital. He also rejected comparisons between Al-Shabaab and extremist groups in Syria, insisting that Somalia is not on the brink of collapse stating "Mogadishu is neither Kabul nor Damascus, and Ahmed Diiriye is no Ahmed al-Sharaa". Somalia's Deputy Minister of Defence, Omar Ali Abdi, also revealed that senior government officials within the administration have been sharing sensitive military intelligence directly with Al-Shabaab militants. Al-Shabaab engaged in clashes with government forces killing multiple and injuring thirty six, capturing one as a prisoner of war and seizing a Bika machine gun and 7 Kalashnikov rifles, in the village of Ali Ahmed, repelling 5 other attacks and reasserting control of the area.
On March 10, the Somali Air Force, specifically the 143rd Unit of the 14th October Brigade, executed an airstrike against Al-Shabaab militants in the Baladul Amin area, one of the areas under the Afgooye district killing an Al-Shabaab leader that was later identified as Da'uud Mohamed Maleele, who is known as the emir of zakat tax collection of the Baladul Amin area in Afgooye district. On the same day, an airstrike coordinated by the Somali National Army targeted makeshift bridges by Al-Shabaab which were used to connect regions together and make movements by al-Shabaab easier. Former Deputy Director of Somalia's National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA), Abdisalam Guled, warned about Al-Shabaab's growing threat, stating that Al-Shabaab is shifting its methods, aiming to gain public trust while strengthening its territorial hold in central and southern Somalia, particularly in Hirshabelle. He also noted that Al-Shabaab is using strategies similar to those seen with the Taliban in their takeover of Afghanistan and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham in Syria's conflict, hoping to establish its own governing authority.
On March 11, Al-Shabaab militants bombed a hotel called the Cairo Hotel in Beledweyne, capital of the Hiiraan region in the morning time with a vehicle borne improvised explosive device, and launched an hours long inghimasi assault on the hotel. The hotel houses traditional elders and military officers involved in coordinating the government’s offensive against the militant group. The bombing initially killed 4 people (including two well-known traditional elders), but the death toll increased to 10 civilians killed in the bombing. Al-Shabaab's military command also issued a statement claiming to have killed 20, including 4 military officers in the operation in Beledweyne, while also claiming to have killed 18 soldiers and wounded 30 others in clashes near Adale. The military command also stated that the operation is ongoing.
On March 12, Somalia’s Minister of Defence, Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur, confirmed that the federal government of Somalia coordinated airstrike operations done by the United Arab Emirates and Ethiopia against Al-Shabaab and Islamic State in Somalia militants in Puntland's Al Miskaad Mountains and southern Somalia. The Somali National Army claimed the killing of a senior leader and 50 al-Shabaab militants in the Damasha Shabeelow area of the Middle Shabelle region, killing Mansoor Timo-Weyne, who was the group's leader in charge of preparing and using combat vehicles who was also the target for the airstrike.
On March 13, Somali forces and local security forces overran al-Shabaab militants targeting a heavily fortified militant base that was being used as a staging ground for attacks on civilian communities in a rural area near El Buur district in central Somalia’s Galgaduud region seizing the base and killing several al-Shabaab militants.
On March 14, a series of airstrikes conducted by Somali military forces in coordination with the National Intelligence and Security Agency killed 41 al-Shabaab members, including senior leaders, first in the Boos-Hareeri area of Middle Shabelle which killed 29 al-Shabaab members then the ambaluul area of Lower Shabelle which killed an additional 12 members.
On March 15, Al-Shabaab militants took control of the Sumadale area near the town of Adale, where 19 members of the Somali army were killed and 10 were injured after soldiers from Mogadishu attempted to take back the city of Adale. This figure later rose to 22 deaths (including 10 corpses left behind on the battlefield) and 43 wounded, with the wounded being transferred to the Haji Ali area 7km away by the group. Another round of clashes in the Laba Garas area led to government forces suffering 7 deaths and 4 injuries, with the group capturing a government technical. During an attack, al-Shabaab members also captured Awdheegle and the district associated with it in the Lower Shabelle region including the district bridge, with several Somali soldiers being killed in the process, with 31 dead and 38 wounded. The militants overran government forces and captured key infrastructure including the town’s main bridge and military barracks. The attacks targeted military installations used by the Somali National Army, with the first of the attacks starting before dawn against the Hawo Abdi area 20 kilometers (12 miles) from Mogadishu, which Somalia with the help from other foreign militaries liberated several towns in the area earlier. The militants also briefly seized the Lafoole neighbourhood of Afgooye and were also seen patrolling the Elasha Biyaha suburb of Mogadishu, marking the first time in 10 years that Al-Shabaab is approaching Mogadishu. Over 150 government soldiers died or were wounded in these attacks. Later that night the Ethiopian air force launched airstrikes using barrel bombs filled with fuel, targeting the towns of El-Ba'ad and Jilib. The initial strike struck El Ba’ad, killing a mother and her two children, while the second air raid targeted Jilib, the de facto Al-Shabaab capital. The strike focused on the town’s bustling market, which engulfed in flames, and a university established by the militant group for Islamic sharia studies.
On March 16, heavily armed Al-Shabaab militants were spotted patrolling the road linking Mogadishu and Afgoye for the second consecutive night on Saturday, manning security checkpoints and searching vehicles. Al-Shabaab militants seized Elasha Biyaha (Water Wells) area just outside Mogadishu, with federal troops, who offered no resistance, withdrawing and regrouping at the Siin-Dheer base, situated between the Water Wells and Tareedisho areas. The militants swiftly occupied key locations, cut power to main streets, and instructed residents to remain indoors. The group also publicly vowed to capture Mogadishu by the 17th of Ramadan Hijri (March 17). That same day Al-Shabaab released a press statement revealing the casualties of the Ethiopian air strikes of the night before. The federal government also mobilized and deployed a contingent of the Somali Custodial Corps, traditionally responsible for safeguarding prisoners and thus untrained for combat, to Lower Shabelle region to support the federal government's defense near Awdheegle. That same day Al-Shabaab released a message from an SNA soldier who was captured by the group during their Cadaan Laxey attack. In the recording, the soldier states that his unit panicked, fled, and abandoned him during the assault, further highlighting the lack of coordination and morale within government forces.
On March 17, the Somali Air Force conducted heavy airstrikes against Al-Shabaab members in Jilib and around the Jilib District, where 20 senior and middle-ranking leaders and about 100 militia members were killed while they were holding a meeting. These airstrikes also destroyed six military bases in the area of Jilib. The Somali National Army repelled an attack against military positions in Awdheegle District of Lower Shabelle and the Buursha Sheekh area of Middle Shabelle, where the al-Shabaab militants suffered substantial losses.
On March 18, the Federal Somali government issued a warning to all civilians in Jilib in the Middle Juba region to avoid targeted areas in the district and other areas controlled by Al-Shabaab, this was given out through a press release that said "The attack in Jilib is part of the Federal Government of Somalia's operations targeting the remnants of terrorist groups hiding in limited areas of the country. As confirmed, no civilians were harmed in the Jilib attack. The people living in Jilib district and other areas where terrorists are taking refuge are once again called upon to stay away from enemy targets to prevent civilian casualties,". On the same day, Turkey delivered Baykar Bayraktar Akıncı to Somalia, which are capable of carrying out airstrikes, strengthening the country's operations against Al-Shabaab, with the Qatari government selling planes to Somalia for a price of up to $8 million. In order to help with the fight against al-Shabaab, the Somali Government ordered hundreds of Somali police forces to the frontlines against the offensive, General Asad Osman Abdullahi, the chief of Somalia’s Police Force, spearheading this operation as he created the send-off. Al-Shabaab started making incursions onto Balcad road, a long road that connecting Mogadishu to Balad, with heavy fighting breaking out on the road between Al-Shabaab militants and Somali government forces, when al-Shabaab first arrived in the area known as Aargada Hareeri Aadle, between Balad and Mogadishu, where 20 Somali government forces from Aliyale attempted to push al-Shabaab back, Al-Shabaab entered the Elasha Biyaha area on the night of March 17, making movements there, then retreating. They were also seen in the Lafoole and Xawo Abdi areas between Mogadishu and Afgooye. Al-Shabaab has also claimed responsibility for the bombing of the Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohammed's convoy near Villa Somalia while he was travelling to Mogadishu in the town of Adan Yabal during the day after he left the presidential palace, narrowly surviving. Al-Shabaab clashed with Somali National Army soldiers after attempting to launch an assault against a government military base near Ceelbarwaaqo, located on the outskirts of the Middle Shabelle region where several al-Shabaab militants were killed.

## Reactions

Due to the attacks, on March 4, 2025, the United Nations Security Council extended their sanctions against Al-Shabaab focusing on illegal arms exports and charcoal exports. The sanctions are going to be in effect until December 13, 2025, with the renewal of a committee of experts that will monitor the sanctions on al-Shabaab until January 13, 2026.
Because of Al-Shabaab's offensive, Puntland's Minister of Justice and Religious Affairs, Mohamed Abdiwahaab, accused the Federal Government of Somalia of not properly stopping attacks and not doing enough against Al-Shabaab. Though, on March 5, 2025, Ahmed Mohamed Islam made a press release stating that they would fight alongside Somali government military forces and the Ma'awisley clan militias in Jubaland against al-Shabaab.
On March 5, 2025, former President of Somalia, Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, former Prime Minister, Hassan Ali Khaire, and member of the Somali parliament, Abdirahman Abdishakur Warsame issued a joint press statement supporting the brave forces fighting against Al-Shabaab and the Islamic State. Though they said that the President of Somalia, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, had engaged in political conflict with some of the states of Somalia, which had stalled the operations against Al-Shabaab.
After the offensive expanded, the United States Embassy in Somalia warned of the possibility of terrorist attacks including the Aden Adde International Airport in the capital, Mogadishu calling on American citizens in Somalia to exercise caution and avoid gatherings and demonstrations. It also announced the cancellation of all movements of its employees until further notice, as part of precautionary measures to confront potential threats. The Somali government attempted to downplay the warning with the Somali Minister of Transport and Civil Aviation, Fardowsa Osman Egal, insisting there was no imminent threat that justified the flight cancellations. "There is no security situation that warrants the suspension of international flights to Mogadishu," Egal told Voice of America Somali. "We continue to receive complete intelligence briefings, and no direct threats have been relayed to us.". The President of Somalia, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, accused the United States of sending out these alerts to undermine and destabilize the Somali government and to cause mass paranoia and panic. Turkish Airlines as a result temporarily suspended all flights to Somalia’s capital Mogadishu until March 12 following the US terror alert, while Qatar Airways suspended all flight to Mogadishu indefinitely.
On March 6, 2025, the Somalia’s Council of Ministers expanded security in Mogadishu due to the advances by al-Shabaab and to fight against al-Shabaab.
On March 15, 2025, Puntland's Minister of Information, Mohamud Aydid Diri, warned Somalia might undergo the same fate that happened with Afghanistan in a quote: "Most American diplomats have been evacuated. We fear Mogadishu could face the same fate as Afghanistan.".
Though supporting Somalia with air strikes against al-Shabaab, Ethiopia, on March 17, 2025, officially stated they would not put infantry troops into Somalia. On the same day, the President of Hirshabelle State, Ali Abdullahi Hussein, who recently returned to his office for a brief period, held a virtual meeting with the United States Ambassador to Somalia, Mr. Richard H. Riley where they discussed the ongoing military operations against extremist groups in Hirshabelle including al-Shabaab and the Islamic State in Somalia.