# Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election

Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election is being carried out continually by various organisations to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. The dates of these opinion polls range from the previous general election on 4 July 2024 to the present.
The next general election must be held no later than 15 August 2029 under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022. The Act mandates that any Parliament automatically dissolves five years after it first met – unless it is dissolved earlier at the request of the prime minister – and polling day occurs no more than 25 working days later.

## Graphical summary

The chart below shows opinion polls conducted since the 2024 general election. The trend lines are local regressions (LOESS). The bar on the left represents the previous election, and the bar on the right represents the latest possible date of the next election.

## Most recent polling by pollster

This section collates the most recent opinion poll released by each pollster.
| Pollster | Dates conducted | Lab | Con | Ref | LD | Grn | Lead |
| YouGov | 16–17 Mar 2025 | 26% | 22% | 24% | 14% | 9% | Lab +2 over Ref |
| Techne | 12–13 Mar 2025 | 27% | 22% | 24% | 14% | 7% | Lab +3 over Ref |
| Find Out Now | 12 Mar 2025 | 24% | 21% | 27% | 11% | 10% | Ref +3 over Lab |
| More In Common | 7–10 Mar 2025 | 25% | 23% | 25% | 14% | 8% | Lab-Ref Tie |
| JL Partners | 6–9 Mar 2025 | 26% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 7% | Lab +2 over Con |
| Opinium | 5–7 Mar 2025 | 28% | 20% | 27% | 12% | 8% | Lab +1 over Ref |
| BMG Research | 25–26 Feb 2025 | 26% | 22% | 27% | 12% | 8% | Ref +1 over Lab |
| Survation | 28–29 Jan 2025 | 27% | 22% | 24% | 13% | 8% | Lab +3 over Ref |
| Whitestone Insight | 22–23 Jan 2025 | 25% | 20% | 24% | 12% | 13% | Lab +1 over Ref |
| Deltapoll | 17–20 Jan 2025 | 29% | 25% | 22% | 11% | 8% | Lab +4 over Con |
| Stonehaven | 6–9 Dec 2024 | 28% | 24% | 21% | 13% | 8% | Lab +4 over Con |
| We Think | 7–8 Aug 2024 | 33% | 20% | 21% | 11% | 8% | Lab +12 over Ref |
| General election (GB) | 4 Jul 2024 | 34.7% | 24.4% | 14.7% | 12.5% | 6.9% | Lab +10.3 over Con |

## National poll results

Most opinion polls do not cover Northern Ireland, which has different major political parties from the rest of the United Kingdom. This distinction is made in the tables below in the area column, where "GB" means Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales), and "UK" means the entire United Kingdom. Plaid Cymru only stand candidates in Wales and the Scottish National Party only stand candidates in Scotland. Due to rounding total figures might not add up to 100%.

### 2025

| Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Area | Sample size | Lab | Con | Ref | LD | Grn | SNP | PC | Others | Lead |
| 16–17 Mar | YouGov | The Times/Sky News | GB | 2,315 | 26% | 22% | 24% | 14% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2 |
| 12–13 Mar | Techne | N/A | UK | 1,638 | 27% | 22% | 24% | 14% | 7% | 2% | – | 4% | 3 |
| 12 Mar | Find Out Now | N/A | GB | 2,686 | 24% | 21% | 27% | 11% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 3 |
| 9–10 Mar | YouGov | The Times/Sky News | GB | 2,291 | 24% | 22% | 23% | 15% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 1 |
| 7–10 Mar | More In Common | N/A | GB | 2,041 | 25% | 23% | 25% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 2% | Tie |
| 6–9 Mar | JL Partners | The Sun | GB | 2,012 | 26% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 2 |
| 5–7 Mar | Opinium | The Observer | GB | 1,498 | 28% | 20% | 27% | 12% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1 |
| 5–6 Mar | Techne | N/A | UK | 1,632 | 28% | 21% | 25% | 13% | 7% | 2% | – | 4% | 3 |
| 5 Mar | Find Out Now | N/A | GB | 2,670 | 25% | 21% | 26% | 12% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1 |
| 2–3 Mar | YouGov | The Times | GB | 2,222 | 26% | 21% | 25% | 14% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1 |
| 28 Feb – 2 Mar | More in Common | N/A | GB | 2,010 | 26% | 24% | 24% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2 |
| 26–27 Feb | Techne | N/A | UK | 1,643 | 26% | 22% | 25% | 13% | 8% | 2% | – | 4% | 1 |
| 26 Feb | Find Out Now | N/A | GB | 3,363 | 23% | 21% | 28% | 13% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 5 |
| 25–26 Feb | BMG Research | The i | GB | 1,586 | 26% | 22% | 27% | 12% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1 |
| 23–24 Feb | YouGov | Sky News / The Times | GB | 2,415 | 24% | 22% | 25% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1 |
| 21–24 Feb | More in Common | N/A | GB | 2,013 | 23% | 25% | 24% | 16% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 1 |
| 19–21 Feb | Opinium | The Observer | GB | 2,050 | 28% | 21% | 26% | 12% | 8% | 3% | – | 2% | 2 |
| 19–20 Feb | Techne | N/A | UK | 1,639 | 25% | 22% | 26% | 12% | 7% | 3% | – | 5% | 1 |
| 19 Feb | Find Out Now | N/A | GB | 2,393 | 24% | 20% | 28% | 12% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 4 |
| 14–18 Feb | More in Common | N/A | GB | 4,101 | 25% | 23% | 26% | 12% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1 |
| 16–17 Feb | YouGov | N/A | GB | 2,436 | 25% | 21% | 27% | 14% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 2 |
| 13–17 Feb | Lord Ashcroft Polls | N/A | GB | 5,099 | 28% | 23% | 23% | 9% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 5 |
| 12–13 Feb | Techne | N/A | UK | 1,637 | 26% | 22% | 25% | 12% | 8% | 2% | – | 5% | 1 |
| 12 Feb | Find Out Now | N/A | GB | 3,421 | 23% | 21% | 29% | 12% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 6 |
| 9–10 Feb | YouGov | N/A | GB | 2,419 | 25% | 21% | 26% | 14% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1 |
| 7–10 Feb | More in Common | N/A | GB | 2,005 | 25% | 23% | 25% | 12% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 3% | Tie |
| 5–7 Feb | Opinium | The Observer | GB | 1,493 | 27% | 22% | 26% | 11% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1 |
| 5–6 Feb | Techne | N/A | UK | 1,645 | 25% | 23% | 25% | 13% | 7% | 2% | – | 5% | Tie |
| 5 Feb | Find Out Now | N/A | GB | 2,487 | 25% | 18% | 29% | 13% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 4 |
| 2–3 Feb | YouGov | Sky News | GB | 2,465 | 24% | 21% | 25% | 14% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1 |
| 31 Jan – 3 Feb | More in Common | N/A | GB | 2,044 | 24% | 26% | 24% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 2 |
| 29–30 Jan | Techne | N/A | UK | 1,633 | 26% | 23% | 24% | 12% | 7% | 3% | – | 5% | 2 |
| 29 Jan | Find Out Now | N/A | GB | 2,487 | 23% | 21% | 27% | 11% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 4 |
| 28–29 Jan | BMG Research | The i | GB | 1,514 | 25% | 25% | 24% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | Tie |
| 28–29 Jan | Survation | N/A | UK | 1,670 | 27% | 22% | 24% | 13% | 8% | 3% | – | 4% | 3 |
| 26–27 Jan | YouGov | The Times | GB | 2,523 | 27% | 22% | 23% | 14% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 4 |
| 24–27 Jan | More in Common | N/A | GB | 2,009 | 25% | 24% | 25% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 3% | Tie |
| 22–29 Jan | Find Out Now Electoral Calculus (MRP) | PLMR | GB | 5,743 | 23% | 23% | 24% | 11% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 6% | 1 |
| 22–24 Jan | Opinium | The Observer | GB | 2,050 | 28% | 21% | 27% | 11% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1 |
| 22–23 Jan | Whitestone Insight | Daily Express | GB | 2,012 | 25% | 20% | 24% | 12% | 13% | 3% | – | 3% | 1 |
| 22–23 Jan | Techne | N/A | UK | 1,643 | 25% | 24% | 24% | 13% | 7% | 2% | – | 5% | 1 |
| 22 Jan | Find Out Now | N/A | GB | 2,380 | 22% | 23% | 26% | 12% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 3 |
| 19–20 Jan | YouGov | The Times | GB | 2,466 | 26% | 22% | 24% | 14% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2 |
| 17–20 Jan | More in Common | N/A | GB | 2,016 | 24% | 25% | 25% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 3% | Tie |
| 17–20 Jan | Deltapoll | Institute for Government | GB | 1,500 | 29% | 25% | 22% | 11% | 8% | 3% | – | 2% | 4 |
| 16–20 Jan | Lord Ashcroft Polls | N/A | GB | 5,251 | 28% | 25% | 20% | 11% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 3% | 3 |
| 15–16 Jan | Techne | N/A | UK | 1,624 | 26% | 25% | 23% | 12% | 7% | 2% | – | 5% | 1 |
| 15 Jan | Find Out Now | N/A | GB | 2,386 | 24% | 25% | 25% | 12% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 2% | Tie |
| 10–14 Jan | JL Partners | The Sunday Times | GB | 2,007 | 26% | 25% | 22% | 13% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1 |
| 12–13 Jan | YouGov | The Times | GB | 2,279 | 26% | 22% | 25% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1 |
| 10–13 Jan | More in Common | N/A | GB | 1,587 | 24% | 25% | 24% | 12% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 1 |
| 8–10 Jan | Opinium | The Observer | GB | 2,050 | 29% | 23% | 24% | 10% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 5 |
| 8 Jan | Find Out Now | N/A | GB | 2,076 | 25% | 20% | 25% | 11% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 2% | Tie |
| 6–8 Jan | More in Common | N/A | GB | 2,011 | 26% | 26% | 22% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 2% | Tie |
| 30 Dec – 3 Jan | Deltapoll | Mail on Sunday | GB | 1,532 | 30% | 23% | 22% | 12% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 7 |

### 2024

| Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Area | Sample size | Lab | Con | Reform | Lib Dems | Green | SNP | PC | Others | Lead |
| 19–23 Dec | Deltapoll | The Mirror | GB | 1,552 | 29% | 25% | 21% | 12% | 8% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 4 |
| 18–20 Dec | Opinium | The Observer | GB | 1,472 | 29% | 23% | 22% | 11% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 6 |
| 18–19 Dec | Techne | N/A | UK | 1,642 | 27% | 26% | 21% | 12% | 7% | 2% | – | 5% | 1 |
| 12–16 Dec | Survation | N/A | UK | 2,030 | 30% | 25% | 20% | 11% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 5 |
| 11–12 Dec | Techne | N/A | UK | 1,634 | 27% | 25% | 22% | 11% | 7% | 2% | – | 6% | 2 |
| 11 Dec | Find Out Now | N/A | GB | 2,659 | 26% | 23% | 25% | 11% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1 |
| 6–10 Dec | More in Common | N/A | GB | 2,432 | 26% | 26% | 19% | 13% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 4% | Tie |
| 6–9 Dec | Stonehaven (MRP) | N/A | GB | 2,072 | 28% | 24% | 21% | 13% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 4 |
| 5–6 Dec | Techne | N/A | UK | 1,644 | 27% | 25% | 21% | 12% | 7% | 2% | – | 6% | 2 |
| 4 Dec | Find Out Now | N/A | GB | 2,607 | 23% | 26% | 24% | 11% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2 |
| 29 Nov – 2 Dec | More in Common | N/A | GB | 2,002 | 26% | 28% | 21% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2 |
| 27–29 Nov | Opinium | The Observer | GB | 2,050 | 29% | 25% | 21% | 10% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 4 |
| 27–28 Nov | Techne | N/A | UK | 1,648 | 28% | 27% | 18% | 13% | 6% | 2% | – | 6% | 1 |
| 27 Nov | Find Out Now | N/A | GB | 2,316 | 25% | 27% | 22% | 12% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2 |
| 26–27 Nov | BMG Research | The i | GB | 1,531 | 29% | 27% | 20% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 0% | 2% | 2 |
| 26–27 Nov | More in Common | N/A | GB | 1,972 | 27% | 30% | 18% | 12% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 3 |
| 20–21 Nov | Techne | N/A | UK | 1,632 | 29% | 27% | 17% | 12% | 7% | 2% | – | 6% | 2 |
| 19–21 Nov | More in Common | N/A | GB | 2,002 | 25% | 28% | 19% | 13% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 3 |
| 14–18 Nov | Deltapoll | N/A | GB | 1,749 | 29% | 27% | 18% | 12% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 2 |
| 13–14 Nov | JL Partners | The Sun / Politico | GB | 2,024 | 27% | 26% | 20% | 12% | 9% | 3% | – | 3% | 1 |
| 13–14 Nov | Techne | N/A | GB | 1,643 | 28% | 27% | 17% | 13% | 7% | 2% | – | 6% | 1 |
| 11–13 Nov | Opinium | The Observer | GB | 1,646 | 30% | 24% | 21% | 12% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 6 |
| 8–11 Nov | More in Common | N/A | GB | 2,007 | 27% | 29% | 19% | 11% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 2 |
| 6–7 Nov | Techne | N/A | UK | 1,636 | 29% | 25% | 18% | 13% | 7% | 2% | – | 6% | 4 |
| 2 Nov | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party |
| 31 Oct – 16 Dec | More in Common (MRP) | N/A | GB | 11,024 | 25% | 26% | 21% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1 |
| 30 Oct – 1 Nov | More in Common | N/A | GB | 2,007 | 28% | 26% | 18% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 2 |
| 30–31 Oct | Opinium | The Observer | GB | 1,548 | 31% | 24% | 20% | 10% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 7 |
| 30–31 Oct | BMG Research | The i | GB | 1,511 | 28% | 29% | 17% | 13% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1 |
| 30–31 Oct | Techne | N/A | UK | 1,632 | 30% | 24% | 18% | 14% | 7% | 2% | – | 5% | 6 |
| 23–24 Oct | Techne | N/A | UK | 1,644 | 29% | 24% | 19% | 13% | 7% | 2% | – | 6% | 5 |
| 16–18 Oct | Opinium | The Observer | GB | 1,565 | 31% | 24% | 20% | 12% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 7 |
| 16–17 Oct | Techne | N/A | UK | 1,636 | 28% | 25% | 19% | 13% | 7% | 2% | – | 6% | 3 |
| 11–13 Oct | JL Partners | The Telegraph | GB | 2,000 | 29% | 25% | 19% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 4 |
| 9–10 Oct | Techne | N/A | UK | 1,651 | 29% | 24% | 19% | 12% | 7% | 2% | – | 7% | 5 |
| 9–10 Oct | More in Common | The Times | GB | 2,000 | 27% | 27% | 21% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1% | Tie |
| 5–7 Oct | More in Common | Politico | GB | 2,023 | 29% | 28% | 19% | 11% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 1 |
| 4–7 Oct | Deltapoll | N/A | GB | 2,108 | 29% | 25% | 18% | 14% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 4 |
| 2–4 Oct | Opinium | The Observer | GB | 1,491 | 31% | 24% | 20% | 11% | 8% | 3% | – | 2% | 7 |
| 2–3 Oct | BMG Research | i | GB | 1,562 | 30% | 25% | 20% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 5 |
| 2–3 Oct | Techne | N/A | UK | 1,643 | 31% | 23% | 18% | 13% | 7% | 2% | – | 6% | 8 |
| 25–26 Sep | Techne | N/A | UK | 1,638 | 32% | 22% | 18% | 13% | 7% | 2% | – | 6% | 10 |
| 24–25 Sep | More in Common | N/A | GB | 2,080 | 30% | 26% | 18% | 13% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 4 |
| 18–19 Sep | Techne | The Independent | UK | 1,641 | 33% | 21% | 18% | 13% | 7% | 2% | – | 6% | 12 |
| 10–12 Sep | More in Common | Politico | GB | 1,542 | 29% | 25% | 18% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 4 |
| 29 Aug | BMG Research | i | GB | 1,560 | 30% | 26% | 19% | 12% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 4 |
| 7–8 Aug | We Think | N/A | GB | 1,278 | 33% | 20% | 21% | 11% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 4% Independents on 3% Other on 1% | 12 |
| 5–7 Aug | BMG Research | i | GB | 1,523 | 33% | 24% | 18% | 12% | 8% | – | – | 4% | 9 |
| 30 Jul – 5 Aug | Stonehaven | N/A | GB | 2,048 | 34% | 22% | 17% | 12% | 9% | – | – | 6% | 12 |
| 25–26 Jul | We Think | N/A | GB | 2,012 | 36% | 22% | 17% | 11% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 4% Independents on 3% Other on 1% | 14 |
| 11–12 Jul | We Think | N/A | GB | 2,005 | 39% | 20% | 16% | 11% | 9% | 2% | – | 3% | 19 |
| 4 Jul 2024 | 2024 general election | – | UK | – | 33.7% | 23.7% | 14.3% | 12.2% | 6.8% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 6.1% | 10.0 |
| 4 Jul 2024 | 2024 general election | – | GB | – | 34.7% | 24.4% | 14.7% | 12.5% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 3.5% | 10.3 |

## Preferred prime minister

Some pollsters ask voters which of the party leaders they would prefer as prime minister.
| Dates conducted | Pollster | Sample size | Keir Starmer | Kemi Badenoch | Nigel Farage | Ed Davey | Other | None | Don't know | Lead |
| 7–10 Mar 2025 | More in Common | 2,041 | 26% | 10% | 21% | – | – | 43% | – | 5 |
| 6–9 Mar 2025 | JL Partners | 2,012 | 35% | 24% | – | – | – | – | 40% | 9 |
| 6–9 Mar 2025 | JL Partners | 2,012 | 43% | – | 33% | – | – | – | 25% | 10 |
| 6–9 Mar 2025 | JL Partners | 2,012 | – | 32% | 34% | – | – | – | 34% | 2 |
| 6–9 Mar 2025 | JL Partners | 2,012 | 32% | 17% | 28% | – | – | – | 23% | 4 |
| 5–7 Mar 2025 | Opinium | 2,050 | 28% | 13% | – | – | – | 42% | 17% | 15 |
| 28 Feb – 3 Mar 2025 | More in Common | 2,010 | 28% | 12% | 22% | – | – | 38% | – | 6 |
| 21–24 Feb 2025 | More in Common | 2,013 | 22% | 11% | 23% | – | – | 44% | – | 1 |
| 19–21 Feb 2025 | Opinium | 2,050 | 25% | 15% | – | – | – | 45% | 15% | 10 |
| 18 Feb 2025 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1,500 | 32% | 27% | – | – | – | – | 41% | 5 |
| 18 Feb 2025 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1,500 | 36% | – | 37% | – | – | – | 26% | 1 |
| 14–18 Feb 2025 | More in Common | 4,101 | 23% | 10% | 25% | – | – | 43% | – | 2 |
| 13–17 Feb 2025 | Lord Ashcroft Polls | 5,099 | 29% | 17% | – | – | – | – | 54% | 12 |
| 13–17 Feb 2025 | Lord Ashcroft Polls | 5,099 | 30% | 9% | 23% | – | – | – | 38% | 7 |
| 7–10 Feb 2025 | More in Common | 2,005 | 22% | 13% | 24% | – | – | 41% | – | 2 |
| 6–7 Feb 2025 | YouGov | 2,275 | 31% | 20% | – | – | – | – | – | 11 |
| 6–7 Feb 2025 | YouGov | 2,275 | 36% | – | 26% | – | – | – | – | 10 |
| 6–7 Feb 2025 | YouGov | 2,275 | 24% | – | – | 16% | – | – | – | 8 |
| 6–7 Feb 2025 | YouGov | 2,275 | – | 22% | 22% | – | – | – | – | Tie |
| 6–7 Feb 2025 | YouGov | 2,275 | – | 17% | – | 26% | – | – | – | 9 |
| 6–7 Feb 2025 | YouGov | 2,275 | – | – | 25% | 30% | – | – | – | 5 |
| 5–7 Feb 2025 | Opinium | 2,050 | 24% | 15% | – | – | – | 46% | 15% | 9 |
| 31 Jan – 3 Feb 2025 | More in Common | 2,044 | 22% | 12% | 24% | – | – | 42% | – | 2 |
| 28–29 Jan 2025 | Survation | 2,010 | 34% | 31% | – | – | – | – | 44% | 3 |
| 24–27 Jan 2025 | More in Common | 2,009 | 21% | 12% | 23% | – | – | 44% | – | 2 |
| 16–20 Jan 2025 | Lord Ashcroft Polls | 5,231 | 29% | 18% | – | – | – | – | 53% | 11 |
| 16–20 Jan 2025 | Lord Ashcroft Polls | 5,231 | 31% | 11% | 21% | – | – | – | 37% | 10 |
| 17 Jan 2025 | YouGov | 2,266 | 19% | 9% | 20% | 8% | – | 34% | – | 1 |
| 10–14 Jan 2025 | JL Partners | 2,007 | 29% | 26% | – | – | – | – | 44% | 3 |
| 10–14 Jan 2025 | JL Partners | 2,007 | 38% | – | 33% | – | – | – | 29% | 5 |
| 10–13 Jan 2025 | More in Common | 2,005 | 21% | 12% | 20% | – | – | 47% | – | 1 |
| 8–10 Jan 2025 | Opinium | 2,050 | 26% | 16% | – | – | – | 42% | 16% | 10 |
| 18–20 Dec 2024 | Opinium | 2,010 | 25% | 16% | – | – | – | 41% | 17% | 9 |
| 13–17 Dec 2024 | Ipsos | 1,137 | 32% | 18% | – | – | – | 27% | – | 14 |
| 13–17 Dec 2024 | Ipsos | 1,137 | 37% | – | 25% | – | – | 21% | – | 12 |
| 13–17 Dec 2024 | Ipsos | 1,137 | – | 16% | 23% | – | – | 40% | – | 7 |
| 12–16 Dec 2024 | Survation | 2,030 | 35% | 30% | – | – | – | – | 35% | 5 |
| 6–10 Dec 2024 | More in Common | 2,432 | 28% | 23% | – | – | – | 49% | – | 5 |
| 26–27 Nov 2024 | YouGov | 2,203 | 27% | 22% | – | – | – | 4% | 47% | 5 |
| 2 Nov 2024 | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party |
| Dates conducted | Pollster | Sample size | Keir Starmer | Rishi Sunak | Nigel Farage | Ed Davey | Other | None | Don't know | Lead |
| 18–20 Oct 2024 | Savanta | 2,135 | 39% | 32% | – | – | – | 45% | 11% | 7 |
| 2–4 Oct 2024 | Opinium | 2,003 | 25% | 19% | – | – | – | 45% | – | 6 |
| 25–27 Sep 2024 | Opinium | 2,049 | 27% | 18% | – | – | – | 46% | 10% | 9 |
| 18–20 Sep 2024 | Opinium | 2,050 | 28% | 18% | – | – | – | 44% | 10% | 10 |
| 28–30 Aug 2024 | Opinium | 2,040 | 34% | 15% | – | – | – | 40% | 11% | 19 |
| 14–16 Aug 2024 | Opinium | 1,996 | 36% | 16% | – | – | – | 37% | 12% | 20 |
| 7–8 Aug 2024 | We Think | 1,278 | 26% | 10% | 20% | 5% | 4% Carla Denyer,Grn on 2% Adrian Ramsay, Grn on 2% | 20% | 15% | 6 |
| 31 Jul – 2 Aug 2024 | Opinium | 2,063 | 38% | 14% | – | – | – | 37% | 11% | 24 |
| 25–26 Jul 2024 | We Think | 2,012 | 30% | 11% | 18% | 4% | 4% Carla Denyer,Grn on 3% Adrian Ramsay, Grn on 1% | 18% | 15% | 12 |
| 17–19 Jul 2024 | Opinium | 2,010 | 37% | 14% | – | – | – | 34% | 15% | 23 |
| 11–12 Jul 2024 | We Think | 2,005 | 30% | 11% | 14% | 5% | 5% Carla Denyer,Grn on 4% Adrian Ramsay, Grn on 1% | 20% | 13% | 16 |

## Seat projections
### MRP polls

| Date(s) conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Area | Lab | Con | LD | SNP | Ref | Grn | Plaid | Others | Majority |
| 22 – 29 Jan 2025 | Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now | PLMR | 5,743 | GB | 174 | 178 | 57 | 37 | 175 | 4 | 2 | 5 | Hung (Con 148 short) |
| 30 Nov 2024 – 5 Jan 2025 | Focaldata | Hope not Hate | 17,790 | GB | 287 | 163 | 63 | 22 | 76 | 4 | 4 | 13 | Hung (Lab 39 short) |
| 31 Oct – 16 Dec 2024 | More in Common | N/A | 11,024 | GB | 228 | 222 | 58 | 37 | 72 | 2 | 4 | 26 | Hung (Lab 98 short) |
| 6–9 Dec 2024 | Stonehaven | N/A | 2,072 | GB | 278 | 157 | 47 | 24 | 120 | 3 | 2 | 19 | Hung (Lab 48 short) |
| 2 Nov 2024 | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party |
| 4 Jul 2024 | 2024 general election | 2024 general election | – | UK | 411 | 121 | 72 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 23 Sinn Féin: 7 Independents: 6 DUP: 5 SDLP: 2 Alliance: 1 UUP: 1 TUV: 1 Speaker: 1 | Lab 174 |

### POLARIS projections

Political Analysis through Regional and Local Insights System (POLARIS) is a novel model created by J.L. Partners, using council by-elections to predict election outcomes.
| Date(s) conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Area | Lab | Con | LD | SNP | Ref | Grn | Plaid | Oth | Majority |
| Through January 2025 | J.L. Partners | N/A | 306,817 | GB | 200 | 190 | 70 | 42 | 102 | 7 | 4 | 34 Northern Irish seats: 18 Independents or Workers Party: 16 Speaker: 1 | Hung (Lab 126 short) |
| Through December 2024 | J.L. Partners | N/A | 280,000 | GB | 256 | 208 | 66 | 6 | 71 | 5 | 4 | 33 Northern Irish seats: 18 Independents or Workers Party: 15 Speaker: 1 | Hung (Lab 70 short) |
| 2 Nov | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party |
| 4 Jul 2024 | 2024 general election | 2024 general election | – | UK | 411 | 121 | 72 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 23 Sinn Féin: 7 Independents: 6 DUP: 5 SDLP: 2 Alliance: 1 UUP: 1 TUV: 1 Speaker: 1 | Lab 174 |

## Sub-national poll results
### Northern Ireland

| Date(s) conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Sinn Féin | DUP | Alliance | UUP | SDLP | TUV | Others | Lead |
| 4 Jul 2024 | 2024 general election | 2024 general election | – | 27.0% | 22.1% | 15.0% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.9 |

### Scotland

| Date(s) conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Lab | SNP | Con | LD | Ref | Grn | Others | Lead |
| 15–20 Jan 2025 | Find Out Now | The Herald | 1,334 | 18% | 31% | 12% | 10% | 17% | 7% | 5% | 13 |
| 11–14 Jan 2025 | Norstat | The Sunday Times | 1,026 | 18% | 32% | 13% | 11% | 17% | 6% | 3% | 14 |
| 7–13 Jan 2025 | Survation | N/A | 1,024 | 24% | 33% | 14% | 9% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 9 |
| 17–24 Dec 2024 | Find Out Now | The National | 1,774 | 20% | 34% | 14% | 9% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 14 |
| 4–6 Dec 2024 | Norstat | The Sunday Times | 1,013 | 20% | 31% | 14% | 9% | 15% | 6% | 4% Alba on 3% Other on 1% | 11 |
| 1–15 Nov 2024 | Survation | Progress Scotland | 3,016 | 28% | 31% | 15% | 6% | 13% | 5% | 3% Alba on 2% Other on 1% | 3 |
| 30 Oct – 1 Nov 2024 | Norstat | The Sunday Times | 1,013 | 23% | 30% | 15% | 10% | 14% | 6% | 2% Alba on 1% Other on 1% | 7 |
| 27 Sep 2024 | Russell Findlay is elected leader of the Scottish Conservatives | Russell Findlay is elected leader of the Scottish Conservatives | Russell Findlay is elected leader of the Scottish Conservatives | Russell Findlay is elected leader of the Scottish Conservatives | Russell Findlay is elected leader of the Scottish Conservatives | Russell Findlay is elected leader of the Scottish Conservatives | Russell Findlay is elected leader of the Scottish Conservatives | Russell Findlay is elected leader of the Scottish Conservatives | Russell Findlay is elected leader of the Scottish Conservatives | Russell Findlay is elected leader of the Scottish Conservatives | Russell Findlay is elected leader of the Scottish Conservatives |
| 10–13 Sep 2024 | Survation | Progress Scotland | 2,059 | 31% | 31% | 14% | 9% | 11% | 3% | 1% Alba on 1% Other on 0% | Tie |
| 5–11 Sep 2024 | Opinium | The Sunday Times | 1,028 | 25% | 32% | 14% | 8% | 11% | 7% | 2% | 7 |
| 20–22 Aug 2024 | Norstat | The Sunday Times | 1,011 | 32% | 29% | 12% | 8% | 12% | 5% | 2% Alba on 2% Other on 1% | 3 |
| 4 Jul 2024 | 2024 general election | 2024 general election | – | 35.3% | 30.0% | 12.7% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 5.3 |

### Wales

| Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Lab | Con | Ref | Pld | LD | Grn | Oth | Lead |
| 3–5 Dec 2024 | Darren Millar is elected leader of the Welsh Conservatives | Darren Millar is elected leader of the Welsh Conservatives | Darren Millar is elected leader of the Welsh Conservatives | Darren Millar is elected leader of the Welsh Conservatives | Darren Millar is elected leader of the Welsh Conservatives | Darren Millar is elected leader of the Welsh Conservatives | Darren Millar is elected leader of the Welsh Conservatives | Darren Millar is elected leader of the Welsh Conservatives | Darren Millar is elected leader of the Welsh Conservatives | Darren Millar is elected leader of the Welsh Conservatives | Darren Millar is elected leader of the Welsh Conservatives |
| 18 Oct – 4 Nov 2024 | Survation | Reform UK | 2,006 | 33% | 18% | 21% | 13% | 9% | 5% | 0% | 12 |
| 4 Jul 2024 | 2024 general election | 2024 general election | – | 37.0% | 18.2% | 16.9% | 14.8% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 18.8 |

### English mayoral regions
#### Cambridgeshire and Peterborough

| Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | Ref | Grn | Others | Lead |
| Nov–Dec 2024 | Stonehaven | PoliticsHome | 6,500 | 28% | 24% | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | 4 |
| 4 Jul 2024 | 2024 general election | 2024 general election | – | 30.1% | 25.0% | 22.0% | 12.7% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 5.1 |

#### Greater Lincolnshire

| Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Con | Lab | Ref | LD | Grn | Others | Lead |
| Nov–Dec 2024 | Stonehaven | PoliticsHome | 6,500 | 33% | 24% | 28% | TBD | TBD | TBD | 5 |
| 4 Jul 2024 | 2024 general election | 2024 general election | – | 34.0% | 29.1% | 23.6% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.9 |

#### Hull and East Yorkshire

| Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Lab | Con | Ref | LD | Grn | Others | Lead |
| Nov–Dec 2024 | Stonehaven | PoliticsHome | 6,500 | 30% | 26% | 30% | TBD | TBD | TBD | Tie |
| 4 Jul 2024 | 2024 general election | 2024 general election | – | 37.7% | 26.2% | 21.9% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 1.7% | 11.5 |

#### London

| Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Lab | Con | LD | Grn | Ref | Others | Lead |
| 30 Oct – 11 Nov 2024 | Savanta | N/A | ? | 36% | 24% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 3% | 12 |
| 4 Jul 2024 | 2024 general election | 2024 general election | – | 43.0% | 20.6% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 22.7 |

### Constituency polling
#### Runcorn and Helsby

| Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Lab. | Ref. | Con. | Green | Lib. Dems | Others | Lead |
| 12–14 Mar 2025 | FindOutNow | FindOutNow | 147 | 33% | 36% | 12% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 3 |
| 3–12 Mar 2025 | Lord Ashcroft | Lord Ashcroft | 702 | 35% | 40% | 10% | 6% | 8% | 2% | 5 |
| 4 Jul 2024 | 2024 general election | 2024 general election | – | 52.9% | 18.1% | 16.0% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 1.4% | 34.8 |

### 100 most rural constituencies

In November 2024, Survation conducted a survey of the 100 "most rural" constituencies.
| Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Con | Lab | LD | Ref | Grn | Others | Lead |
| 14–21 Nov 2024 | Survation | Country Land and Business Association | 1,007 | 34% | 21% | 18% | 21% | 7% | 0% | 13 |
| 4 Jul 2024 | 2024 general election (Survation) | 2024 general election (Survation) | – | 33.9% | 23.6% | 19.1% | 16.1% | 6.0% | 1.4% | 10.4 |

## Approval polling
### Leadership approval

Various organisations have carried out opinion polling to gauge the opinions that voters hold towards political leaders. The polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.
| Dates conducted | Pollster | Sample size | Keir Starmer | Keir Starmer | Keir Starmer | Kemi Badenoch | Kemi Badenoch | Kemi Badenoch | Nigel Farage | Nigel Farage | Nigel Farage | Ed Davey | Ed Davey | Ed Davey | Carla Denyer | Carla Denyer | Carla Denyer | Adrian Ramsay | Adrian Ramsay | Adrian Ramsay |
| Dates conducted | Pollster | Sample size | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net |
| 16–17 Mar 2025 | YouGov | 2,081 | 32% | 60% | –28 | 18% | 52% | –34 | 27% | 65% | –38 | 27% | 33% | –6 | 8% | 15% | –7 | 5% | 12% | –7 |
| 7–10 Mar 2025 | More in Common | 2,041 | 25% | 51% | –26 | 15% | 37% | –22 | 25% | 43% | –18 | 17% | 25% | –8 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 6–9 Mar 2025 | JL Partners | 2,012 | 28% | 47% | –19 | 26% | 31% | –5 | 33% | 42% | –9 | 22% | 25% | –3 | 10% | 17% | –7 | 10% | 18% | –8 |
| 5–7 Mar 2025 | Opinium | 2,050 | 26% | 49% | –23 | 19% | 36% | –17 | 29% | 39% | –10 | 23% | 21% | +2 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 3 Mar 2025 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1,398 | 32% | 46% | –14 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 28 Feb – 3 Mar 2025 | More in Common | 2,010 | 24% | 52% | –28 | 15% | 35% | –20 | 26% | 41% | –15 | 16% | 26% | –10 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 25–26 Feb 2025 | BMG Research | 1,586 | 24% | 54% | –30 | 23% | 22% | +1 | 32% | 33% | –1 | 23% | 18% | +5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 21–24 Feb 2025 | More in Common | 2,013 | 19% | 58% | –39 | 13% | 37% | –24 | 26% | 38% | –12 | – | – | – | | | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 19–21 Feb 2025 | Opinium | 2,050 | 21% | 55% | –34 | 18% | 38% | –20 | 30% | 38% | –8 | 21% | 22% | –1 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 18 Feb 2025 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1,500 | 30% | 48% | –18 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | | | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 14–18 Feb 2025 | More in Common | 4,101 | 20% | 57% | –37 | 15% | 36% | –21 | 30% | 38% | –8 | 16% | 26% | –10 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 16–17 Feb 2025 | YouGov | 2,436 | 26% | 66% | –40 | 17% | 51% | –34 | 30% | 60% | –30 | 27% | 32% | –5 | 7% | 13% | –5 | 4% | 12% | –8 |
| 12 Feb 2025 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 2,300 | – | – | – | 29% | 24% | +5 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 7–10 Feb 2025 | More in Common | 2,005 | 19% | 60% | –41 | 17% | 36% | –19 | 29% | 40% | –11 | 19% | 24% | –5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 5–7 Feb 2025 | Opinium | 2,050 | 22% | 56% | –34 | 20% | 35% | –15 | 31% | 38% | –7 | 22% | 21% | +1 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 31 Jan – 3 Feb 2025 | More in Common | 2,044 | 18% | 56% | –38 | 15% | 33% | –18 | 26% | 38% | –12 | 15% | 24% | –9 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 28–29 Jan 2025 | BMG Research | 1,514 | 22% | 55% | –33 | 23% | 23% | 0 | 32% | 35% | –3 | 22% | 18% | +4 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 28–29 Jan 2025 | Survation | 2,010 | 30% | 49% | –19 | 33% | 31% | +2 | 35% | 42% | –7 | 28% | 25% | +3 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 24–27 Jan 2025 | More in Common | 2,009 | 16% | 58% | –42 | 16% | 32% | –16 | 27% | 39% | –12 | 15% | 24% | –9 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 22–24 Jan 2025 | Opinium | 2,050 | 21% | 55% | –34 | 19% | 34% | –15 | 32% | 39% | –7 | 21% | 21% | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 17–20 Jan 2025 | More in Common | 2,016 | 20% | 56% | –36 | 16% | 33% | –17 | 27% | 39% | –12 | 15% | 24% | –9 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 17–20 Jan 2025 | Deltapoll | 1,500 | 29% | 64% | –35 | 29% | 45% | –16 | – | – | – | – | – | – | | | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 10–13 Jan 2025 | More in Common | 2,102 | 19% | 58% | –39 | 14% | 32% | –18 | 25% | 42% | –17 | – | – | – | | | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 8–10 Jan 2025 | Opinium | 2,050 | 22% | 55% | –33 | 21% | 34% | –13 | 30% | 39% | –9 | 22% | 20% | +2 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 30 Dec – 3 Jan 2025 | Deltapoll | 1,532 | 26% | 68% | –42 | 25% | 46% | –21 | – | – | – | – | – | – | | | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 19–23 Dec 2024 | Deltapoll | 1,552 | 28% | 64% | –36 | 34% | 38% | –4 | – | – | – | – | – | – | | | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 18–20 Dec 2024 | Opinium | 2,010 | 22% | 54% | –32 | 21% | 32% | –12 | 29% | 38% | –9 | 23% | 20% | +3 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 12–16 Dec 2024 | Survation | 2,030 | 35% | 44% | –9 | 36% | 25% | +11 | 37% | 37% | 0 | 29% | 23% | +6 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 12–13 Dec 2024 | YouGov | 2,215 | 25% | 66% | –41 | 18% | 49% | –31 | 28% | 62% | –34 | – | – | – | | | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 6–10 Dec 2024 | More in Common | 2,432 | 19% | 55% | –36 | 18% | 27% | –9 | 27% | 38% | –11 | 17% | 25% | '–8 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 27 Nov – 4 Dec 2024 | Ipsos | 1,028 | 27% | 61% | –34 | 19% | 34% | –15 | – | – | – | 30% | 27% | +3 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 27–29 Nov 2024 | Opinium | 2,020 | 22% | 54% | –32 | 22% | 28% | –6 | 29% | 38% | –9 | 22% | 21% | +1 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 26–27 Nov 2024 | BMG Research | 1,531 | 25% | 53% | –28 | 23% | 16% | +7 | 27% | 34% | –7 | 23% | 18% | +5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 26–27 Nov 2024 | More in Common | 1,749 | 24% | 53% | –29 | 20% | 26% | –6 | 25% | 41% | –16 | – | – | – | | | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 14–18 Nov 2024 | Deltapoll | 1,749 | 29% | 61% | –32 | 24% | 38% | –14 | – | – | – | – | – | – | | | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 13–14 Nov 2024 | JL Partners | 2,024 | 25% | 48% | –23 | 22% | 23% | –1 | 31% | 41% | –10 | 20% | 21% | –1 | 12% | 12% | - | 11% | 10% | +1 |
| 11–13 Nov 2024 | Opinium | 2,068 | 25% | 50% | –25 | 20% | 25% | –5 | 29% | 37% | –8 | 23% | 19% | +3 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 8–11 Nov 2024 | Ipsos | 1,139 | 23% | 52% | –29 | 21% | 39% | –18 | 28% | 48% | –20 | 21% | 31% | –10 | 17% | 26% | –9 | 16% | 26% | –10 |
| 8–11 Nov 2024 | More In Common | 2,111 | 24% | 48% | –24 | 17% | 19% | –2 | – | – | – | 16% | 21% | –5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 8–10 Nov 2024 | YouGov | 2,099 | 28% | 61% | –33 | 21% | 41% | –20 | 30% | 61% | –31 | 24% | 31% | –7 | 7% | 14% | –7 | 4% | 12% | –8 |
| 2 Nov | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party |
| Dates conducted | Pollster | Sample size | Keir Starmer | Keir Starmer | Keir Starmer | Rishi Sunak | Rishi Sunak | Rishi Sunak | Nigel Farage | Nigel Farage | Nigel Farage | Ed Davey | Ed Davey | Ed Davey | Carla Denyer | Carla Denyer | Carla Denyer | Adrian Ramsay | Adrian Ramsay | Adrian Ramsay |
| Dates conducted | Pollster | Sample size | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net |
| 30–31 Oct 2024 | BMG Research | 1,511 | 23% | 49% | –26 | 28% | 33% | –5 | 28% | 35% | –7 | 19% | 19% | - | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 30–31 Oct 2024 | Opinium | 2,016 | 26% | 50% | –24 | 23% | 45% | –22 | 28% | 40% | –12 | 23% | 19% | +4 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 18–20 Oct 2024 | Savanta | 2,135 | 30% | 48% | –18 | 28% | 49% | –21 | 31% | 46% | –14 | 22% | 28% | –5 | 15% | 20% | –5 | 13% | 20% | –7 |
| 16–18 Oct 2024 | Opinium | 2,007 | 21% | 53% | –32 | 20% | 45% | –25 | 25% | 39% | –14 | 22% | 20% | +2 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 9–10 Oct 2024 | More In Common | 2,073 | 18% | 56% | –38 | 18% | 49% | –31 | – | – | – | – | – | – | | | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 5–7 Oct 2024 | More In Common | 2,023 | 21% | 54% | –33 | 19% | 51% | –32 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 4–7 Oct 2024 | Deltapoll | 2,108 | 30% | 61% | –31 | 27% | 65% | –38 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 4–6 Oct 2024 | YouGov | 2,121 | 27% | 63% | –36 | 24% | 66% | –42 | 28% | 63% | –35 | 25% | 32% | –7 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 2–4 Oct 2024 | Opinium | 2,055 | 24% | 52% | –28 | 18% | 47% | –29 | 26% | 42% | –16 | 21% | 21% | - | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 2–3 Oct 2024 | BMG Research | 1,562 | 25% | 50% | –25 | 23% | 41% | –18 | 29% | 32% | –4 | 21% | 20% | +1 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 25–27 Sep 2024 | Opinium | 2,003 | 23% | 53% | –30 | 20% | 46% | –26 | 29% | 40% | –11 | 22% | 23% | –1 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 24–25 Sep 2024 | More In Common | 2,080 | 21% | 48% | –27 | 17% | 52% | –35 | – | – | – | – | – | – | | | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 20–22 Sep 2024 | YouGov | 2,137 | 30% | 60% | –30 | 24% | 68% | –44 | 28% | 63% | –35 | 27% | 36% | –9 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 18–20 Sep 2024 | Opinium | 2,050 | 24% | 50% | –26 | 21% | 46% | –25 | 27% | 39% | –12 | 24% | 21% | +3 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 9 Sep 2024 | More In Common | 2,024 | 25% | 45% | –20 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | | | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 29 Aug 2024 | BMG Research | 1,560 | 28% | 44% | –16 | 22% | 46% | –24 | 28% | 37% | –9 | 19% | 21% | –2 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 24–27 Aug 2024 | More In Common | 2,015 | 27% | 43% | –16 | 17% | 58% | –41 | – | – | – | – | – | – | | | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 14–16 Aug 2024 | Opinium | 2,000 | 32% | 38% | –6 | 20% | 50% | –30 | 24% | 43% | –19 | 21% | 21% | - | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 7–8 Aug 2024 | We Think | 1,278 | 33% | 42% | –9 | 22% | 57% | –35 | 29% | 44% | –15 | 18% | 36% | –18 | 14% | 28% | –14 | 10% | 26% | –16 |
| 5–7 Aug 2024 | BMG Research | 1,523 | 30% | 33% | –3 | 19% | 42% | –23 | 23% | 37% | –14 | 21% | 16% | +5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 5–6 Aug 2024 | YouGov | 2,163 | 37% | 53% | –16 | 23% | 71% | –48 | 25% | 67% | –42 | – | – | – | | | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 31 Jul – 2 Aug 2024 | Opinium | 2,063 | 35% | 32% | +3 | 18% | 48% | –30 | 25% | 40% | –15 | 24% | 19% | +5 | 19% | 17% | +2 | 19% | 17% | +2 |
| 30–31 Jul 2024 | YouGov | 2,233 | 40% | 49% | –9 | 23% | 70% | –47 | 27% | 62% | –35 | 27% | 33% | –6 | 9% | 12% | –3 | 3% | 10% | –7 |
| 25–26 Jul 2024 | We Think | 2,012 | 42% | 37% | +5 | 25% | 61% | –36 | 30% | 50% | –20 | 21% | 36% | –15 | 16% | 34% | –18 | 12% | 32% | –20 |
| 17–19 Jul 2024 | Opinium | 2,010 | 38% | 20% | +18 | 20% | 42% | –22 | – | – | – | 25% | 18% | +7 | 21% | 15% | +6 | 21% | 15% | +6 |
| 11–12 Jul 2024 | We Think | 2,005 | 38% | 15% | +23 | 21% | 31% | –10 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 5–8 Jul 2024 | YouGov | 2,102 | 44% | 47% | –3 | 23% | 70% | –47 | 27% | 65% | –38 | 34% | 29% | +5 | 13% | 16% | –3 | 7% | 14% | –7 |
| 5–6 Jul 2024 | Ipsos | 1,141 | 40% | 33% | +7 | 21% | 57% | –36 | 26% | 52% | –26 | 29% | 26% | +3 | – | – | – | – | – | – |

### Party approval

| Dates conducted | Pollster | Sample size | Labour | Labour | Labour | Conservative | Conservative | Conservative | Reform | Reform | Reform | Lib Dems | Lib Dems | Lib Dems | Green | Green | Green |
| Dates conducted | Pollster | Sample size | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net |
| 16–17 Mar 2025 | YouGov | 2,081 | 32% | 59% | –27 | 25% | 66% | –41 | 28% | 59% | –31 | 36% | 46% | –10 | 42% | 40% | +2 |
| 10–11 Mar 2025 | YouGov | | 31% | 61% | –30 | 25% | 67% | –42 | 28% | 59% | –31 | 38% | 43% | –5 | 39% | 41% | –2 |
| 7–10 Mar 2025 | More in Common | 2,041 | 22% | 52% | –30 | 15% | 49% | –34 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 28 Feb – 3 Mar 2025 | More in Common | 2,010 | 21% | 53% | –32 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 21–24 Feb 2025 | More in Common | 2,013 | 18% | 57% | –39 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 14–18 Feb 2025 | More in Common | 4,101 | 18% | 58% | –40 | 14% | 50% | –36 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 16–17 Feb 2025 | YouGov | 2,436 | 29% | 64% | –35 | 24% | 68% | –44 | 32% | 56% | –24 | 34% | 45% | –11 | 41% | 38% | +3 |
| 7–10 Feb 2025 | More in Common | 2,005 | 21% | 57% | –36 | 16% | 51% | –35 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 31 Jan – 3 Feb 2025 | More in Common | 2,044 | 20% | 53% | –33 | 16% | 46% | –30 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 28–29 Jan 2025 | Survation | 2,010 | 34% | 47% | –13 | 34% | 44% | –10 | 33% | 41% | –8 | 29% | 31% | –2 | 32% | 33% | –1 |
| 24–27 Jan 2025 | More in Common | 2,009 | 17% | 53% | –36 | 15% | 49% | –34 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 17–20 Jan 2025 | More in Common | 2,016 | 21% | 56% | –35 | 16% | 49% | –33 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 12–16 Dec 2024 | Survation | 2,030 | 34% | 44% | –10 | 36% | 41% | –5 | 34% | 38% | –4 | 28% | 29% | –1 | 28% | 33% | –5 |
| 12–13 Dec 2024 | YouGov | 2,215 | 28% | 63% | –35 | 24% | 67% | –43 | 27% | 59% | –32 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 6–10 Dec 2024 | More In Common | 2,432 | 20% | 56% | –36 | 18% | 46% | –28 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 8–11 Nov 2024 | More In Common | 2,011 | 21% | 47% | –26 | 16% | 43% | –27 | – | – | – | 17% | 23% | –6 | – | – | – |
| 8–10 Nov 2024 | YouGov | 2,099 | 30% | 61% | –31 | 25% | 67% | –42 | 26% | 59% | –33 | 38% | 42% | –4 | 41% | 39% | +2 |
| 2 Nov 2024 | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party |
| 9–10 Oct 2024 | More In Common | 2,072 | 24% | 51% | –27 | 15% | 52% | –36 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 5–7 Oct 2024 | More In Common | 2,023 | 24% | 51% | –27 | 15% | 53% | –38 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 20–22 Sep 2024 | YouGov | 2,132 | 32% | 59% | –27 | 24% | 67% | –43 | 26% | 62% | –36 | 37% | 45% | –8 | 40% | 42% | –2 |
| 24–27 Aug 2024 | More In Common | 2,015 | 25% | 45% | –20 | 15% | 57% | –42 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 5–6 Aug 2024 | YouGov | 2,163 | 39% | 53% | –14 | 23% | 70% | –47 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 5–8 Jul 2024 | YouGov | 2,102 | 47% | 46% | +1 | 21% | 72% | –51 | 28% | 62% | –34 | 45% | 37% | +8 | 46% | 38% | +8 |
| 5–6 Jul 2024 | Ipsos | 1,141 | 40% | 34% | +6 | 20% | 59% | –39 | 25% | 51% | –26 | 29% | 28% | +1 | 33% | 28% | +6 |

## Hypothetical scenarios
### Different Conservative Party leaders: Voting intention and seat projection

For the 2024 Conservative Party leadership election, Electoral Calculus conducted a multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) opinion poll on behalf of Jack Lewy of the Robert Jenrick campaign, asking the general public how they would vote if respectively Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick were elected leader of the Conservatives.
| Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Area | Sample size | Hypothetical Conservative leader | Hypothetical Conservative leader | Lab | Con | LD | SNP | Ref | Grn | Plaid | Others | Majority / lead |
| 11–15 Oct 2024 | Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus (MRP) | Jack Lewy / Robert Jenrick | GB | 6,289 | Kemi Badenoch | Seats | 332 | 151 | 63 | 48 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 5 | Lab 14 |
| 11–15 Oct 2024 | Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus (MRP) | Jack Lewy / Robert Jenrick | GB | 6,289 | Kemi Badenoch | Vote share | 29% | 22% | 12% | 4% | 21% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 7 |
| 11–15 Oct 2024 | Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus (MRP) | Jack Lewy / Robert Jenrick | GB | 6,289 | Robert Jenrick | Seats | 311 | 178 | 58 | 48 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 5 | Hung (Labour 15 short) |
| 11–15 Oct 2024 | Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus (MRP) | Jack Lewy / Robert Jenrick | GB | 6,289 | Robert Jenrick | Vote share | 28% | 23% | 12% | 4% | 20% | 11% | 1% | 1% | 5 |

### Hypothetical preferred Prime Minister polling

| Dates conducted | Pollster | Sample size | Keir Starmer | Kemi Badenoch | Robert Jenrick | None | Don't know | Lead |
| 30–31 Oct 2024 | YouGov | 2,234 | 27% | 20% | – | 47% | 6% | 7 |
| 30–31 Oct 2024 | YouGov | 2,234 | 29% | – | 21% | 45% | 5% | 8 |
| 18–20 Oct 2024 | Savanta | 2,135 | 41% | 23% | – | – | 35% | 18 |
| 18–20 Oct 2024 | Savanta | 2,135 | 41% | – | 25% | – | 35% | 16 |

### Tactical voting scenarios

In February 2025, YouGov conducted polling on scenarios where only two parties appear to have a chance of winning a constituency.
| Dates conducted | Pollster | Area | Sample size | Lab | Con | Reform | Lib Dems | Green | Others | Don't know | Would not vote/refused | Lead |
| Conservative–Reform races |||||||||||||
| 23–24 Feb | YouGov | GB | 2,178 | 10% | 26% | 25% | 5% | 6% | 3% | 7% | 18% | Con +1 over Ref |
| Conservative–Lib Dem races |||||||||||||
| 23–24 Feb | YouGov | GB | 2,178 | 5% | 25% | 7% | 33% | 3% | 2% | 6% | 17% | LD +8 over Con |
| Conservative–Labour races |||||||||||||
| 23–24 Feb | YouGov | GB | 2,178 | 31% | 28% | 7% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 6% | 17% | Lab +3 over Con |
| Labour–Reform races |||||||||||||
| 23–24 Feb | YouGov | GB | 2,178 | 35% | 4% | 31% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 6% | 16% | Lab +4 over Ref |
| Lib Dem–Reform races |||||||||||||
| 23–24 Feb | YouGov | GB | 2,178 | 5% | 4% | 29% | 36% | 3% | 2% | 6% | 15% | LD +7 over Ref |