# 2025 Canadian federal election in Ontario

In the 2025 Canadian federal election, there will be 122 members of parliament elected to the House of Commons from the province of Ontario (35.6% of all members).

## Background
### 2022 electoral redistribution

The 2025 Canadian federal election will be the first election to utilize the electoral districts established following the 2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution. The House of Commons will increase from 338 seats to 343 seats, with Ontario gaining one seat in an increase from 121 to 122. This ensures that the the average population per constituency in Ontario is 116,590 (according to the 2021 Canadian census), which is 8,742 more people per electoral district than the national average. Due to the redistribution, this will be the first Canadian federal election where the city of Toronto will have less seats than its surrounding municipalities within the Greater Toronto Area.

### Timeline

Changes in Ontario seats held (2021–present) :
| Seat | Before | Before | Before | Before | Change | Change | Change |
| Seat | Date | Member | Party | Reason | Date | Member | Party |
| Mississauga—Lakeshore | May 27, 2022 | Sven Spengemann | █ Liberal | Resigned seat | December 22, 2022 | Charles Sousa | █ Liberal |
| Oxford | January 28, 2023 | Dave MacKenzie | █ Conservative | Resigned seat | June 19, 2023 | Arpan Khanna | █ Conservative |
| Don Valley North | March 22, 2023 | Han Dong | █ Liberal | Resigned from caucus | | | █ Independent |
| Durham | August 1, 2023 | Erin O'Toole | █ Conservative | Resigned seat | March 4, 2024 | Jamil Jivani | █ Conservative |
| Toronto—St. Paul's | January 16, 2024 | Carolyn Bennett | █ Liberal | Resigned seat | June 24, 2024 | Don Stewart | █ Conservative |

### Opinion polling

| Polling firm | Last date of polling | LPC | CPC | NDP | GPC | PPC | Others | Margin of error | Sample size | Polling method | Lead |
| Mainstreet Research | February 17, 2025 | 41 | 39 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 2 | ± 2.7 pp | 1,278 (1/3) | online (rolling) | 2 |
| Mainstreet Research | February 16, 2025 | 42 | 38 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ± 2.8 pp | 1,229 (1/3) | online (rolling) | 4 |
| Mainstreet Research | February 15, 2025 | 41 | 39 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 2 | ± 2.8 pp | 1,228 (1/3) | online (rolling) | 2 |
| Mainstreet Research | February 14, 2025 | 43 | 39 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 1 | ± 2.7 pp | 1,272 (1/3) | online (rolling) | 4 |
| Mainstreet Research | February 13, 2025 | 43 | 41 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 2 | ± 2.7 pp | 1,294 (1/3) | online (rolling) | 2 |
| Mainstreet Research | February 12, 2025 | 43 | 40 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 2 | ± 2.7 pp | 1,314 (1/3) | online (rolling) | 3 |
| Mainstreet Research | February 11, 2025 | 43 | 39 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 2 | ± 2.7 pp | 1,303 (1/3) | online (rolling) | 4 |
| Mainstreet Research | February 10, 2025 | 45 | 37 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 2 | ± 2.7 pp | 1,301 (1/3) | online (rolling) | 8 |
| Mainstreet Research | February 9, 2025 | 43 | 39 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | ± 2.7 pp | 1,347 (1/3) | online (rolling) | 4 |
| Mainstreet Research | February 8, 2025 | 42 | 36 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 2 | ± 2.8 pp | 1,187 (1/3) | online (rolling) | 6 |
| Mainstreet Research | February 7, 2025 | 44 | 36 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 2 | ± 2.8 pp | 1,262 (1/3) | online (rolling) | 8 |
| Mainstreet Research | February 6, 2025 | 42 | 36 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 2 | ± 2.5 pp | 1,515 (1/4) | online (rolling) | 6 |
| Mainstreet Research | February 5, 2025 | 42 | 37 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 2 | ± 2.8 pp | 1,236 (1/3) | online (rolling) | 5 |
| Mainstreet Research | February 4, 2025 | 42 | 37 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 2 | ± 2.9 pp | 1,162 (1/3) | online (rolling) | 5 |
| Mainstreet Research | February 3, 2025 | 43 | 39 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 2 | ± 3.0 pp | 1,080 (1/3) | online (rolling) | 4 |
| Mainstreet Research | February 2, 2025 | 42 | 39 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 2 | ± 2.6 pp | 1,374 (1/3) | online (rolling) | 3 |
| Mainstreet Research | February 1, 2025 | 41 | 40 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 2 | ± 2.9 pp | 1,124 (1/3) | online (rolling) | 1 |
| Mainstreet Research | January 31, 2025 | 39 | 39 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 2 | ± 2.8 pp | 1,247 (1/3) | online (rolling) | 0 |
| Mainstreet Research | January 30, 2025 | 40 | 39 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 2 | ± 2.4 pp | 1,644 (1/3) | online (rolling) | 1 |
| Mainstreet Research | January 26, 2025 | 40 | 38 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 2 | ± 3.2 pp | 936 | online | 2 |
| Abacus Data | June 25, 2024 | 27 | 44 | 19 | 5 | — | 5 | ± 3.1 pp | 1,000 | online | 17 |
| Abacus Data | May 15, 2024 | 29 | 45 | 17 | 4 | — | 5 | ± 3.1 pp | 1,000 | online | 16 |

## Summary of results

| Party | Party | Votes | Vote % | Vote +/- | Seats | Seat +/- |
| | Liberal | TBD | TBD | TBDpp | TBD / 122 | TBD |
| | Conservative | TBD | TBD | TBDpp | TBD / 122 | TBD |
| | New Democratic | TBD | TBD | TBDpp | TBD / 122 | TBD |
| | Green | TBD | TBD | TBDpp | TBD / 122 | TBD |
| | People's | TBD | TBD | TBDpp | TBD / 122 | TBD |
| | Independent | TBD | TBD | TBDpp | TBD / 122 | TBD |
| | Other | TBD | TBD | TBDpp | TBD / 122 | TBD |
| Total | Total | TBD | 100% | – | 122 / 122 (100%) | 1 |