# 2028 Bavarian state election

Elections to the Landtag of Bavaria will be held in 2028.

## Electoral system

The Landtag is elected using mixed-member proportional representation. Every voter has two votes, one for a candidate in their local constituency and one for a candidate in their regional district. Both votes are taken into account in the allocation of seats according to proportional representation. The election law was changed in 2022 to use the Sainte-Laguë method. There is no state-wide proportional representation; regional seats are allocated within the seven administrative districts, which are referred to as "constituencies" (Wahlkreise) in the constitution. The regional seats are allocated in an open-list fashion, according to votes cast for candidates.
Only parties and electoral groups that win at least 5% of the total votes across Bavaria (sum of first and second votes, meaning party votes and local district contest votes) participate in the allocation of seats. The regional "constituencies" are divided into local "electoral districts" (Stimmkreise), in each of which one MP is directly elected by getting plurality in the first (only) round.
The number of local "electoral districts" (91) is about equal to the number of seats in the regional "constituencies" (89). The number of seats may be increased if overhang seats occur. In that event, levelling seats are added in the regional constituency.

## Backgroud

In the 2023 Bavarian state elections, the CSU emerged once again as the leading party. The Free Voters and AfD saw significant increases in their voter support, securing the second and third positions, respectively. Conversely, the Greens experienced a decline, losing nearly 3 percentage points, which relegated them to the fourth spot. The SPD, despite further vote losses, retained its position as the fifth strongest party. The FDP, with a decrease of 2 percentage points, failed to secure enough votes to re-enter the state parliament. Neither the ÖDP nor the Left Party managed to surpass the five percent threshold required for representation.
Following the election, the coalition between the CSU and the Free Voters was continued, forming the Cabinet Söder III.

## Opinion polls
### Party polling

| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | CSU | FW | AfD | Grüne | SPD | FDP | Linke | BSW | Others | Lead |
| Federal Parliament election | 23 Feb 2025 | – | 37.2 | 4.3 | 19.0 | 12.0 | 11.6 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 18.2 |
| Civey | 30 Jan – 13 Feb 2025 | 5,007 | 41 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 27 |
| Civey | 3–17 Jan 2025 | 5,011 | 43 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 29 |
| Civey | 28 Nov – 12 Dec 2024 | 5,001 | 42 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 28 |
| Civey | 1–15 Nov 2024 | 5,008 | 44 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 32 |
| Civey | 11–18 Oct 2024 | 5,001 | 42 | 12 | 14 | 11 | 7 | – | – | – | 14 | 28 |
| INSA | 7–14 Oct 2024 | 1,000 | 43 | 11 | 18 | 10 | 8 | – | – | 5 | 5 | 25 |
| GMS | 11–16 Sep 2024 | 1,048 | 42 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 30 |
| Civey | 5–12 Sep 2024 | 5,002 | 42 | 13 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 1 | – | 8 | 27 |
| Civey | 9–16 Aug 2024 | 5,002 | 42 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | – | 8 | 28 |
| Forsa | 22 Jul – 2 Aug 2024 | 1,036 | 43 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 2 | – | 4 | 7 | 30 |
| Civey | 11–18 Jul 2024 | 5,004 | 42 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | – | 8 | 28 |
| Civey | 7–14 Jun 2024 | 5,004 | 41 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | – | 7 | 27 |
| European Parliament election | 9 Jun 2024 | 6,324,011 | 39.7 | 6.8 | 12.6 | 11.8 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 3.8 | 11.1 | 27.1 |
| Civey | 3–10 May 2024 | 5,005 | 41 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | – | 7 | 27 |
| GMS | 30 Apr – 6 May 2024 | 1,023 | 41 | 15 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 26 |
| Civey | 4–11 Apr 2024 | 5,002 | 42 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 7 | – | – | – | 11 | 28 |
| Civey | 8–15 Mar 2024 | 5,001 | 42 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 1 | – | 7 | 28 |
| Civey | 9–16 Feb 2024 | 5,001 | 40 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 8 | – | – | – | 11 | 26 |
| GMS | 31 Jan – 5 Feb 2024 | 1,018 | 42 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 27 |
| Infratest dimap | 11–15 Jan 2024 | 1,161 | 40 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 7 | 3 | – | – | 9 | 25 |
| Civey | 4–11 Jan 2024 | 5,000 | 41 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 8 | – | – | – | 10 | 27 |
| GMS | 27 Dec – 2 Jan 2024 | 1,002 | 41 | 16 | 14 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 1 | – | 6 | 25 |
| Civey | 8–15 Dec 2023 | 4,999 | 41 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 8 | – | – | – | 10 | 27 |
| Civey | 10–17 Nov 2023 | 5,001 | 40 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | – | 6 | 26 |
| 2023 state election | 8 Oct 2023 | – | 37.0 | 15.8 | 14.6 | 14.4 | 8.4 | 3.0 | 1.5 | – | 5.3 | 21.2 |