# 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election

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2024 :
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vte :
The 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election will be held on November 4, 2025, to elect the governor of Virginia. Incumbent Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin will be ineligible to run for re-election, as the Constitution of Virginia prohibits the state's governors from serving consecutive terms. Primary elections will take place on June 17, 2025.
Former U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat, and Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears, a Republican, are considered the front-runners for their respective party nominations. Either of them would be Virginia's first female governor, while Earle-Sears would also be the first Black female governor in U.S. history.
This is the only Republican-held governorship up for election in 2025. Democrat Kamala Harris won the state in the 2024 presidential election by 5.8%.
This election may be an indicator of the popularity of Trump's second presidency. With the exception of 2013, Virginia has elected a governor of the opposite party of the sitting president of the United States in every election since 1977.

## Background

Virginia is considered to be a moderately blue state at the federal level, with Kamala Harris carrying Virginia by about six percentage points in the 2024 presidential election, and the last time a Republican won a federal statewide race was in the 2004 presidential election. Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats, a majority in its U.S. representative congressional delegation, and the minimum majority in both houses of the Virginia General Assembly. However, statewide offices tend to be more competitive as Republicans flipped all three statewide constitutional offices in the 2021 elections, all of which are up for election in 2025.
Donald Trump's efforts to shrink the federal workforce is considered to be a potential issue in the election, given that many federal workers live in northern Virginia. Current predictions suggest the race is either a tossup or slightly leaning towards the Democrats (presumably Spanberger).

## Republican primary

Lieutenant Governor Earle-Sears was initially viewed as the presumptive Republican nominee for governor. However, after poor initial polling and growing dissatisfaction with the lieutenant governor in factions of the party, Earle-Sears drew two challengers: former senator Amanda Chase and former delegate Dave LaRock. Chase and LaRock are positioning themselves as more loyal to President Donald Trump.

### Candidates
#### Declared

* Amanda Chase, former state senator for SD-11 (2016–2024), candidate for governor in 2021, and candidate for SD-10 2025 special election
* Dave LaRock, former state delegate for HD-33 (2014–2024) and candidate for SD-1 in 2023
* Merle Rutledge, investigative reporter and perennial candidate
* Winsome Earle-Sears, Lieutenant Governor of Virginia (2022–present)

#### Declined

* Jason Miyares, Virginia Attorney General (2022–present) (running for re-election)
* Rob Wittman, U.S. representative from Virginia's 1st congressional district (2007–present) (running for re-election)

### Endorsements

Statewide officials
* Glenn Youngkin, incumbent governor (2022–present)
Organizations
* Maggie's List

### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jason Miyares | Winsome Earle-Sears | Undecided |
| Cygnal (R) | October 27–29, 2024 | ? | ± 4.0% | 12% | 48% | 40% |
| Cygnal (R) | March 13–14, 2024 | 510 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 16% | 44% | 41% |
| Differentiators Data | February 21–24, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 17% | 48% | 35% |

## Democratic primary
### Candidates
#### Declared

* Abigail Spanberger, former U.S. representative from Virginia's 7th congressional district (2019–2025)

#### Publicly expressed interest

* Bobby Scott, U.S. representative from Virginia's 3rd congressional district (1993–present)

#### Withdrawn

* Levar Stoney, former mayor of Richmond (2017–2025) and former Virginia Secretary of the Commonwealth (2014–2016) (running for lieutenant governor)

### Endorsements

U.S. senators
* Tim Kaine, Virginia (2013–present)
U.S. representatives
* Don Beyer, VA-8 (2015–present)
* Rick Boucher, VA-9 (1983–2011)
* Gerry Connolly, VA-11 (2009–present)
* Lois Frankel, FL-22 (2013–present)
* Elaine Luria, VA-2 (2019–2023)
* Tom Perriello, VA-5 (2009–2011)
* Suhas Subramanyam, VA-10 (2025–present)
* Eugene Vindman, VA-7 (2025–present)
* Jennifer Wexton, VA-10 (2019–2025)
Statewide officials
* Ralph Northam, former governor of Virginia (2018–2022)
* Mary Sue Terry, former Virginia Attorney General (1986–1993)
* Anthony Troy, former Virginia Attorney General (1977–1978)
State cabinet officials
* Viola Baskerville, former Virginia Secretary of Administration (2006–2010)
* Brian Moran, former Virginia Secretary of Public Safety and Homeland Security (2014–2022)
State legislators
* Monty Mason, former state senator from the 1st district (2016–2024)
* Russet Perry, state senator from the 31st district (2024–present)
* Don Scott, Speaker of the Virginia House of Delegates (2024–present) from the 88th district (2020–present)
* 5 other state delegates
Local officials
* Juli Briskman, Loudoun County supervisor (2020–present)
* Jeff McKay, at-large Fairfax County supervisor (2020–present)
Organizations
* Brady PAC
* End Citizens United
* EMILYs List
* Giffords
* Virginia League of Conservation Voters
* Vote Mama
* VoteVets
State legislators
* Louise Lucas, president pro tempore of the Virginia Senate (2020–present) from the 18th district (1992–present) (previously endorsed Stoney)
State officials
* Terry McAuliffe, former governor of Virginia (2014–2018), former chair of the Democratic National Committee (2001–2005) and nominee for governor in 2021
* Molly Joseph Ward, former Virginia Secretary of Natural Resources (2014–2018)
State legislators
* Lamont Bagby, state senator from the 9th district (2023–present)
* Creigh Deeds, state senator from the 25th district (2001–present), nominee for governor in 2009 and nominee for attorney general in 2005
* Michael Jones, state delegate from the 77th district (2024–present)
* Mamie Locke, state senator from the 2nd district (2004–present)
* Louise Lucas, president pro tempore of the Virginia Senate (2020–present) from the 18th district (1992–present)
Local officials
* Sherman Lea, mayor of Roanoke (2016–present)

### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Abigail Spanberger | Levar Stoney | Undecided |
| | April 22, 2024 | Stoney withdraws from the race | Stoney withdraws from the race | Stoney withdraws from the race | Stoney withdraws from the race | Stoney withdraws from the race |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | March 25–26, 2024 | 734 (LV) | — | 44% | 11% | 45% |
| Christopher Newport University | January 11–16, 2024 | 1000 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 52% | 8% | 40% |

## Independents
### Formed exploratory committee

* Denver Riggleman, former Republican U.S. Representative for Virginia's 5th congressional district (2019–2021)

## General election
### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| The Cook Political Report | Tossup | December 6, 2024 |
| Inside Elections | Tilt D (flip) | February 6, 2025 |

### Polling

Winsome Earle-Sears vs. Abigail Spanberger
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Winsome Earle-Sears (R) | Abigail Spanberger (D) | Other | Undecided |
| Cygnal (R) | February 26–28, 2025 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 46% | – | 14% |
| Roanoke College | February 17–20, 2025 | 690 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 24% | 39% | 4% | 33% |
| co/efficient (R) | January 18–20, 2025 | 867 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 40% | 40% | 5% | 15% |
| Virginia Commonwealth University | December 18, 2024 – January 15, 2025 | 806 (A) | ± 4.7% | 34% | 44% | 5% | 17% |
| Christopher Newport University | January 6–13, 2025 | 806 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 39% | 44% | 6% | 12% |
| Emerson College | January 6–8, 2025 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 42% | 4% | 13% |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | December 15–19, 2024 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 47% | – | 9% |
| Research America Inc. | September 3–9, 2024 | 1,000 (A) | ± 3.1% | 39% | 39% | 10% | 12% |
| co/efficient (R) | September 7–10, 2023 | 834 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 26% | 27% | – | 47% |
Winsome Earle-Sears vs. Bobby Scott
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Winsome Earle-Sears (R) | Bobby Scott (D) | Undecided |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | December 15–19, 2024 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 44% | 10% |
Jason Miyares vs. Abigail Spanberger
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jason Miyares (R) | Abigail Spanberger (D) | Undecided |
| Research America Inc. | September 3–9, 2024 | 1,000 (A) | ± 3.1% | 39% | 40% | 12% |
| co/efficient (R) | September 7–10, 2023 | 834 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 22% | 26% | 52% |