# 2024 United States Senate election in Tennessee

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vte :
The 2024 United States Senate election in Tennessee was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Tennessee. Incumbent one-term Republican Senator Marsha Blackburn defeated state representative Gloria Johnson with 63.8% of the vote. Blackburn significantly improved on her performance from 2018.
The primaries took place on August 1, 2024, with Blackburn and Johnson winning their respective party nominations. This was the first all-woman general election for a Tennessee senate seat.
Blackburn performed comparably to Donald Trump in the general election overall but notably outperformed him in some key counties. Specifically, she outperformed him in Hamilton, Madison, Shelby, and Washington. She also outperformed Trump in Haywood County—a county he lost and where she had also previously lost—but this time, she managed to flip it.
Although Gloria Johnson campaigned for the Senate seat, she simultaneously sought and won re-election to the State House in the 90th district, where she ran unopposed in that race.

## Background

At the federal and state levels, Tennessee is considered to be a strongly red state, having gone to Donald Trump by 23 points in the 2020 presidential election. In Tennessee, Republicans occupy both Senate seats, 8 out of 9 U.S. House seats, supermajorities in both state legislative chambers, and the governor's office.
Due to Tennessee's strong conservative bent, this race was considered a "Safe" Republican hold.

## Republican primary
### Candidates
#### Nominee

* Marsha Blackburn, incumbent U.S. Senator (2019–present)

#### Eliminated in primary

* Tres Wittum, legislative policy analyst and candidate for Tennessee's 5th congressional district in 2022

#### Endorsements

U.S. Executive Branch officials
* Donald Trump, former president of the United States
Organizations
* American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC)
* Maggie's List
* Turning Point Action

### Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of July 12, 2024 :
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Marsha Blackburn (R) | $14,501,964 | $6,339,437 | $8,776,627 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission ||||

### Results

Republican primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Republican | Marsha Blackburn (incumbent) | 367,799 | 89.48% |
| | Republican | Tres Wittum | 43,244 | 10.52% |
| | Write-in | Write-in | 2 | <0.01% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 411,045 | 100.00% |

## Democratic primary
### Candidates
#### Nominee

* Gloria Johnson, state representative from the 90th district (2013–2015, 2019–present) and member of the Tennessee Three

#### Eliminated in primary

* Marquita Bradshaw, staffing consultant and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020
* Lola Brown, minister
* Civil Miller-Watkins, former Fayette County school board member

#### Declined

* Joanne Sowell, attorney

#### Endorsements

Individuals
* Ruby Amanfu, musician
* Kyshona Armstrong, musician
* Sam Ashworth, musician
* Mya Byrne, musician
* Brandi Carlile, musician
* Beth Nielsen Chapman, musician
* Shelly Colvin, musician
* Elizabeth Cook, musician
* Brooke Eden, musician
* Kam Franklin, musician
* Mary Gauthier, musician
* Devon Gilfillian, musician
* Emmylou Harris, musician
* Brittany Howard, musician
* Meghan Linsey, musician
* Paul McDonald, musician
* Erin Rae McKaskle, musician
* Morgxn, musician
* Maren Morris, musician
* Katie Pruitt, musician
* Allison Russell, musician
* Amanda Shires, musician
* Lucie Silvas, musician
* Langhorne Slim, musician
* Brittney Spencer, musician
* Lilly Winwood, musician
Organizations
* Feminist Majority PAC
* National Organization for Women
Labor unions
* National Education Association

### Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of July 12, 2024 :
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Marquita Bradshaw (D) | $36,054 | $35,691 | $364 |
| Gloria Johnson (D) | $5,046,183 | $3,009,194 | $2,048,985 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission ||||

### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Marquita Bradshaw | Gloria Johnson | Civil Miller-Watkins | Other | Undecided |
| Targoz Market Research | March 15 – April 2, 2024 | 282 (LV) | ± 2.77% | 7% | 38% | 2% | 1% | 52% |
| Targoz Market Research | December 14–28, 2023 | 251 (LV) | ± 2.66% | 11% | 41% | 2% | 1% | 45% |

### Results

Democratic primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Democratic | Gloria Johnson | 143,962 | 70.20% |
| | Democratic | Marquita Bradshaw | 44,657 | 21.78% |
| | Democratic | Lola Brown | 10,027 | 4.89% |
| | Democratic | Civil Miller-Watkins | 6,420 | 3.13% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 205,066 | 100.00% |

## Independents
### Candidates
#### Declared

* Tharon Chandler, farmer and Democratic nominee for Tennessee's 7th congressional district in 2016
* Pamela Moses, community activist and convicted felon
* Hastina Robinson, firefighter

## General election

After defeating Former Governor Phil Bredesen by a surprisingly wide margin in 2018, Blackburn sought re-election. She was easily re-nominated as the Republican nominee.
Initially, 2020 Democratic nominee for senate, Marquita Bradshaw was seen as the early favorite but months after her announcement, State Representative Gloria Johnson entered the race. Johnson had gained prominence for her protest on the Tennessee house floor over the 2023 Covenant School Shooting. Of the three representatives involved in the protest, two were expelled from the legislature, while Johnson narrowly avoided expulsion by just one vote. Johnson would go on to easily win the nomination.
Throughout the campaign, Blackburn consistently led Johnson in the polls and enjoyed a significant financial edge, with a $9 million fundraising advantage. On October 16, the two candidates were scheduled to debate, but Blackburn declined to attend, leaving Johnson to face an empty chair.
In the end, Blackburn easily won re-election, improving vastly from her 2018 performance by nearly 19 percentage points. She also narrowly flipped Haywood county, which had voted for Bredesen six years prior. While Johnson did perform well in the traditionally Democratic counties of Shelby and Davidson (Home to the cities of Memphis and Nashville respectively), she lost her home county, Knox County (Home to Knoxville) by a wide margin.

### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| The Cook Political Report | Solid R | November 9, 2023 |
| Inside Elections | Solid R | November 9, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe R | November 9, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill | Safe R | June 8, 2024 |
| Elections Daily | Safe R | May 4, 2023 |
| CNalysis | Safe R | November 21, 2023 |
| RealClearPolitics | Solid R | August 5, 2024 |
| Split Ticket | Safe R | October 23, 2024 |
| 538 | Solid R | October 23, 2024 |

### Post-primary endorsements
   #### Individuals

* Vivek Ramaswamy, pharmaceutical executive and candidate for president in 2024

### Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of July 12, 2024 :
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Marsha Blackburn (R) | $14,501,964 | $6,339,437 | $8,776,627 |
| Gloria Johnson (D) | $5,069,008 | $3,009,194 | $2,048,985 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission ||||

### Polling

Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Marsha Blackburn (R) | Gloria Johnson (D) | Undecided | Margin |
| 538 | through October 28, 2024 | October 29, 2024 | 55.0% | 35.7% | 9.3% | Blackburn +19.3 |
| RCP | October 1, 2023 - May 9, 2024 | September 9, 2024 | 50.5% | 33.0% | 16.5% | Blackburn +17.5 |
| TheHill/DDHQ | through October 28, 2024 | October 29, 2024 | 59.4% | 36.5% | 4.1% | Blackburn +22.9% |
| Average | Average | Average | 55.0% | 35.1% | 9.9% | Blackburn +19.9% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Marsha Blackburn (R) | Gloria Johnson (D) | Undecided |
| ActiVote | October 7–28, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 61% | 39% | – |
| ActiVote | September 14 – October 18, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 61% | 39% | – |
| Targoz Market Research | September 27 – October 8, 2024 | 1,159 (RV) | ± 2.77% | 52% | 29% | 18% |
| 971 (LV) | ± 2.77% | 54% | 31% | 15% |
| ActiVote | July 25 – September 2, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 60% | 40% | – |
| Targoz Market Research | June 20 – July 1, 2024 | 1,124 (RV) | ± 2.77% | 49% | 32% | 19% |
| 944 (LV) | ± 2.77% | 52% | 32% | 16% |
| SSRS/Vanderbilt University | April 26 – May 9, 2024 | 1,003 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 51% | 40% | 9% |
| Targoz Market Research | March 15 – April 2, 2024 | 955 (LV) | ± 2.77% | 45% | 29% | 26% |
| Targoz Market Research | October 5–16, 2023 | 850 (LV) | ± 2.79% | 49% | 29% | 23% |
Marsha Blackburn vs. Marquita Bradshaw
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Marsha Blackburn (R) | Marquita Bradshaw (D) | Undecided |
| Targoz Market Research | June 20 – July 1, 2024 | 1,124 (RV) | ± 2.77% | 51% | 33% | 17% |
| 942 (LV) | ± 2.77% | 54% | 33% | 14% |
| Targoz Market Research | March 15 – April 2, 2024 | 947 (LV) | ± 2.77% | 46% | 22% | 32% |
| Targoz Market Research | October 5–16, 2023 | 824 (LV) | ± 2.79% | 48% | 36% | 17% |

### Results

2024 United States Senate election in Tennessee :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Republican | Marsha Blackburn (incumbent) | 1,918,743 | 63.80% | +9.09% |
| | Democratic | Gloria Johnson | 1,027,461 | 34.16% | −9.76% |
| | Independent | Tharon Chandler | 28,444 | 0.95% | N/A |
| | Independent | Pamela Moses | 24,682 | 0.82% | N/A |
| | Independent | Hastina Robinson | 8,278 | 0.28% | N/A |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 3,007,608 | 100.00% | |

### By congressional district

Blackburn won eight of nine congressional districts.
| District | Blackburn | Johnson | Representative |
| 1st | 78% | 20% | Diana Harshbarger |
| 2nd | | | Tim Burchett |
| 3rd | | | Chuck Fleischmann |
| 4th | | | Scott DesJarlais |
| 5th | | | Andy Ogles |
| 6th | | | John W. Rose |
| 7th | | | Mark E. Green |
| 8th | | | David Kustoff |
| 9th | | | Steve Cohen |

#### By county

| County | Marsha Blackburn Republican | Marsha Blackburn Republican | Gloria Johnson Democratic | Gloria Johnson Democratic | Other votes | Other votes | Total votes |
| County | % | # | % | # | % | # | Total votes |
| Anderson | 66.52% | 23,718 | 32.49% | 11,587 | | | |
| Bedford | 77.98% | 15,098 | 21.01% | 4,067 | | | |
| Benton | 80.71% | 5,653 | 18.32% | 1,283 | | | |
| Bledsoe | 85.55% | 5,061 | 13.70% | 897 | | | |
| Blount | 73.06% | 9,551 | 26.00% | 17,632 | | | |
| Bradley | 79.06% | 37,622 | 19.95% | 9,494 | | | |
| Campbell | 81.48% | 12,250 | 16.60% | 2,495 | | | |
| Cannon | 80.31 % | 5,308 | 17.72% | 1,171 | | | |
| Carroll | 81.05% | 9,446 | 17.31% | 2,017 | | | |
| Carter | 81.30% | 19,687 | 16.85% | 4.081 | | | |
| Cheatham | 70.84% | 14,518 | 27.14% | 5,563 | | | |
| Chester | 82.86% | 6,169 | 15.25% | 1,135 | | | |
| Claiborne | 82.49% | 10,885 | 16.05% | 2,118 | | | |
| Clay | 81.67% | 2,900 | 16.70% | 593 | | | |
| Cocke | 81.92% | 12,471 | 16.13% | 2,456 | | | |
| Coffee | 75.42% | 18,463 | 22.17% | 5,428 | | | |
| Crockett | 75.81% | 4,350 | 19.59% | 1,124 | | | |
| Cumberland | 78.38% | 26,427 | 20.02% | 6,751 | | | |
| Davidson | | | | | | | |
| Decatur | | | | | | | |
| DeKalb | | | | | | | |
| Dickson | | | | | | | |
| Dyer | | | | | | | |
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| Greene | | | | | | | |
| Grundy | | | | | | | |
| Hamblen | | | | | | | |
| Hamilton | 56.31% | 97,475 | 41.66% | 72,115 | 2.04% | 3,527 | 173,117 |
| Hancock | | | | | | | |
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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
* Haywood (largest city: Brownsville)