# 2025 Madeiran regional election

A snap regional election will be held in Madeira on 23 March 2025, to determine the composition of the Legislative Assembly of the Autonomous Region of Madeira. The election will replace all 47 members of the Madeira Assembly, and the new members will then elect the President of the Autonomous Region. This election, the third in just one year and a half, was called following the collapse of Albuquerque's government due to the approval of a motion of no confidence in December 2024.
The incumbent president since 2015 is Miguel Albuquerque, from the Social Democratic Party (PSD). The Social Democrats are defending their dominance in the islands, which they have held since 1976.

## Background

In the 2024 election, albeit being marred in an ongoing corruption investigation, the Social Democratic Party was once again the most voted party with 36.1 percent of the votes. Despite their victory, the PSD failed to win a majority of the seats.
The Socialist Party (PS) led by former Funchal mayor Paulo Cafôfo achieved a similar result to the 2023 elections, with 21.3 percent of the votes. The big surprise of the election was the regionalist party Together for the People (JPP), who gained 4 seats from their previous 5 seats and who achieved 16.9 percent of the votes. After the election, PS and JPP struck a deal in order to make a coalition government and prevent a government led by Albuquerque, despite not having a majority.
Miguel Albuquerque negotiated a parliamentary support agreement with the CDS–People's Party (CDS–PP), their previous coalition partners, in order to form a minority government. Albuquerque was appointed as president and had to face a vote of confidence in the regional parliament.
Albuquerque presented his government programme to the speaker of the Regional Parliament, José Manuel Rodrigues, on 14 June 2024, with Miguel Albuqerque saying that policies of all Opposition parties were included in the document. However, the Socialist Party (PS), Together for the People (JPP) and Chega (CH) announced they would vote against Albuquerque in the vote of confidence on 20 June 2024, thus putting at risk the continuity of the regional government. Facing a rejection, Albuquerque withdrew, on 19 June, his programme from the assembly and announced negotiations to present a new one, thus cancelling the 20 June vote. After negotiations with Opposition parties, mainly Chega, IL, CDS–PP and PAN, Miguel Albuquerque presented, on 2 July, a new government programme that was to be voted on 4 July, but which had no certainties of passing at the moment it was presented. On 4 July 2024, Albuquerque's government passed in the regional assembly, with 22 votes in favour, from PSD, CDS–PP and PAN, 21 votes against, from PS, JPP and Chega member Magna Costa, and four abstentions by IL and the three members from Chega.

### 2024 motion of no confidence

On 6 November 2024, Chega presented a motion of no confidence to bring down Miguel Albuquerque, citting the continued accusations, and investigations, of corruption against several regional secretaries and Albuquerque himself. At the same time, the Chega motion also criticized the Socialist Party (PS) for being an "accomplice" of the Social Democrats bad government, and this accusation generated divisions within the PS on what should be the party's position, with members divided between the vote in favour or abstain. However, shortly after, Chega said it was open to drop the criticisms towards the PS, and then the PS signaled it would vote in favour of the motion, which was later officially confirmed. The motion was expected to be voted on 18 November, but a PSD request to delay the vote was approved and the motion was then rescheduled for 17 December 2024. On 9 December, the proposed budget for 2025 was rejected on the first reading with the votes of all Opposition parties and the approval of only PSD and CDS–PP. On 17 December, the motion of no confidence was approved with the votes of all Opposition parties and the sole rejection of PSD and CDS–PP, thus causing the regional government to fall. After meeting with parties and the Council of State, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa dissolved the regional parliament and called an election for 23 March 2025.

### Leadership changes and challenges
#### Liberal Initiative

Nuno Morna, regional party leader, announced on 16 June 2024 he was stepping down from the party's leadership, but remaining as regional Parliament member, and a leadership ballot was called for 27 July 2024. Duarte Gouveia, Morna's predecessor in the leadership post, announced his intention to return to the party's leadership. A second candidate, Gonçalo Maia Camelo, also announced his intention to run for the leadership. However, just days before the ballot, Duarte Gouveia withdrew from the race citing "lack of conditions" to campaign for the leadership. Gonçalo Maia Camelo became the sole candidate and was elected, in a closed party meeting, as new regional leader on 27 July.

#### Chega

The vote to decide the leadership of the Chega-Madeira party was held on September 22, 2024. There were three candidates on the ballot: Current regional leader Miguel Castro; regional assembly member Magna Costa and Câmara de Lobos local assembly member José Fernandes. The ballot was quite secretive, with the media being barred from covering it, and Miguel Castro was re-elected as leader with 39 percent, followed by José Fernandes with 31 percent and Magna Costa with 28 percent. The results were the following:
Ballot: 22 September 2024 :
| Candidate | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Miguel Castro | 39.1 | 39.1 |
| | José Fernandes | 31.1 | 31.1 |
| | Magna Costa | 27.7 | 27.7 |
| Blank/Invalid ballots | Blank/Invalid ballots | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Turnout | Turnout | | |
| Source: ||||
Nearly five months after this ballot, in February 2025, the third-place candidate, Magna Costa, left Chega's regional parliamentary group.

#### Socialist Party

Regional party leader Paulo Cafôfo always rejected an internal election, pressing that he would be the party's main candidate in a snap regional elections, while his opposition, led by former leader Carlos Pereira, demanded a leadership election. But, on 10 January 2025, Cafôfo surprised by calling a snap leadership election for 31 January, stating he was not afraid of elections. Carlos Pereira, however, rejected running in this ballot, citting the limited time to run a candidacy and that this action by Cafôfo "shames the Socialists". Paulo Cafôfo was the sole candidate on the ballot. Around 2,000 party members were registered to vote and Cafôfo was reelected with 98 percent of the votes:
Ballot: 31 January 2025 :
| Candidate | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Paulo Cafôfo | 1,249 | 98.3 |
| Blank/Invalid ballots | Blank/Invalid ballots | 22 | 1.7 |
| Turnout | Turnout | 1,271 | ~63.00 |
| Source: ||||

#### Social Democratic Party

In the PSD, Miguel Albuquerque's challenger in 2015 and 2024, Manuel António Correia, also pressed for a snap leadership ballot, saying that Albuquerque is the source of all the current instability in Madeira, and delivered enough signatures to ask for the calling of a ballot. Miguel Albuquerque, however, rejected any chance of calling a leadership ballot, saying it would divide the party and that there was no time available. On 16 January 2025, the PSD-Madeira Jurisdiction Board rejected the signatures and the request for a leadership ballot.

## Electoral system

The current 47 members of the Madeiran regional parliament are elected in a single constituency by proportional representation under the D'Hondt method, coinciding with the territory of the Region.

## Parties
### Current composition

The table below lists parties represented in the Legislative Assembly of Madeira before the election.
| Name | Name | Name | Ideology | Leader | 2024 result | 2024 result | Current seats | Status |
| Name | Name | Name | Ideology | Leader | % | Seats | Current seats | Status |
| | PPD/PSD | Social Democratic Party Partido Social Democrata | Liberal conservatism | Miguel Albuquerque | 36.1% | 19 / 47 | 19 / 47 | Government |
| | PS | Socialist Party Partido Socialista | Social democracy | Paulo Cafôfo | 21.3% | 11 / 47 | 11 / 47 | Opposition |
| | JPP | Together for the People Juntos pelo Povo | Centrism | Élvio Sousa | 16.9% | 9 / 47 | 9 / 47 | Opposition |
| | CH | Enough! Chega! | National conservatism | Miguel Castro | 9.2% | 4 / 47 | 3 / 47 | Opposition |
| | CDS–PP | CDS – People's Party Centro Democrático Social – Partido Popular | Christian democracy | José Manuel Rodrigues | 4.0% | 2 / 47 | 2 / 47 | Confidence and supply |
| | IL | Liberal Initiative Iniciativa Liberal | Classical liberalism | Gonçalo Maia Camelo | 2.6% | 1 / 47 | 1 / 47 | Opposition |
| | PAN | People Animals Nature Pessoas Animais Natureza | Animal welfare | Mónica Freitas | 1.9% | 1 / 47 | 1 / 47 | Opposition |
| | Ind. | Independent Independente | Magna Costa (left the Enough! caucus) | Magna Costa (left the Enough! caucus) | Magna Costa (left the Enough! caucus) | Magna Costa (left the Enough! caucus) | 1 / 47 | Opposition |

#### Seat changes

* On 12 February 2025, Chega member Magna Costa left the party following deep disagreements, political and personal, with the party's regional leader Miguel Castro.

### Parties running in the election

14 parties and/or coalitions will be on the ballot for the 2025 Madeira regional election. The parties and/or coalitions that will contest the election, and their lead candidates, are: (parties/coalitions are ordered by the way they will appear on the ballot)
* Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU), Edgar Silva
* Social Democratic Party (PSD), Miguel Albuquerque
* LIVRE (L), Marta Sofia
* Together for the People (JPP), Élvio Sousa
* New Right (ND), Paulo Ricardo Azevedo
* People-Animals-Nature (PAN), Mónica Freitas
* Portuguese Labour Party/Earth Party/React, Include, Recycle Forward Madeira coalition (PTP/MPT/RIR), Raquel Coelho
* Socialist Party (PS), Paulo Cafôfo
* Liberal Initiative (IL), Gonçalo Maia Camelo
* People's Monarchist Party (PPM), Paulo Brito
* Left Bloc (BE), Roberto Almada
* Enough (CH), Miguel Castro
* National Democratic Alternative (ADN), Miguel Pita
* CDS – People's Party (CDS–PP), José Manuel Rodrigues

## Campaign
### Issues

The campaign is being dominated by the political instability in the islands, with parties taking positions for negotiations and alliances after election day. On the left, the Socialist Party (PS) is calling for a convergence of votes in the party, but with Together for the People (JPP) making a strong challenge. On the right, parties are open to talks with the Social Democratic Party (PSD), but only without Albuquerque. Voter fatigue and apathy are also a source of concern due to the successive elections just in the last two years.

### Party slogans

| Party or alliance | Original slogan | English translation |
| PSD | « Vota pela Madeira » | "Vote for Madeira" |
| PS | « Estabilidade e Compromisso » | "Stability and Commitment" |
| JPP | « Estamos prontos! » | "We're ready!" |
| CH | « Vamos limpar a Madeira de vez! » | "Let's clean up Madeira for good!" |
| CDS–PP | « Sentido de responsabilidade » | "Sense of responsibility" |
| IL | « Madeira com futuro » | "Madeira with a future" |
| PAN | « Semear a esperança » | "Sowing hope" |
| CDU | « A voz e força dos teus direitos » | "The voice and strength of your rights" |
| BE | « O Bloco faz falta » | "The Bloc is needed" |
| L | « Coragem para ser LIVRE » | "Courage to be FREE" |

### Election debates

2025 Madeiran regional election debates :
| Date | Organisers | Moderator | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited  I Invited  A Absent invitee | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited  I Invited  A Absent invitee | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited  I Invited  A Absent invitee | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited  I Invited  A Absent invitee | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited  I Invited  A Absent invitee | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited  I Invited  A Absent invitee | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited  I Invited  A Absent invitee | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited  I Invited  A Absent invitee | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited  I Invited  A Absent invitee | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited  I Invited  A Absent invitee | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited  I Invited  A Absent invitee | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited  I Invited  A Absent invitee | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited  I Invited  A Absent invitee | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited  I Invited  A Absent invitee | P Present  S Surrogate  NI Not invited  I Invited  A Absent invitee |
| Date | Organisers | Moderator | PSD | PS | JPP | CH | CDS-PP | IL | PAN | CDU | BE | FM | ADN | L | PPM | ND | Ref. |
| 5 Mar | Antena 1 | Paulo Santos | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | P Coelho | P Pita | P Sofia | P Brito | P Azevedo | |
| 6 Mar | Antena 1 | Paulo Santos | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | P Camelo | P Freitas | P Silva | P Almada | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | |
| 7 Mar | Antena 1 | Paulo Santos | P Albuquerque | P Cafôfo | P Sousa | P Castro | P Rodrigues | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | |
| 11 Mar | RTP Madeira | Gil Rosa | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | P Pita | P Sofia | S Ornelas | P Azevedo | |
| 12 Mar | RTP Madeira | Gil Rosa | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | P Camelo | P Freitas | P Silva | P Almada | P Coelho | NI | NI | NI | NI | |
| 13 Mar | RTP Madeira | Gil Rosa | P Albuquerque | P Cafôfo | P Sousa | P Castro | P Rodrigues | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | |

## Opinion polls

Polls that show their results without distributing those respondents who are undecided or said they would abstain from voting, are re-calculated by removing these numbers from the totals through a simple rule of three, in order to obtain results comparable to other polls and the official election results.
| Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | | | | | | | | | | | | O | Lead |
| Intercampus | 5–13 Mar 2025 | 801 | ? | 46.7 24 | 3.0 1 | 20.3 10 | 13.0 6 | 6.6 3 | 3.4 1 | 2.1 1 | 2.2 1 | 1.7 0 | — | 1.0 0 | — | 26.4 |
| Intercampus | 29 Nov–7 Dec 2024 | 803 | ? | 38.7 20 | 4.3 2 | 21.2 11 | 15.2 7 | 7.1 3 | 4.3 2 | 2.1 1 | — | 2.2 1 | 1.7 0 | — | 3.3 0 | 17.5 |
| Aximage | 30 Nov–6 Dec 2024 | 458 | ? | 37.4 19 | 3.2 1 | 19.2 10 | 18.3 9 | 11.3 5 | 4.0 2 | 2.6 1 | — | — | — | — | 3.9 0 | 18.2 |
| 2024 EP election | 9 Jun 2024 | — | 41.6 | 42.7 (23) | 42.7 (23) | 26.0 (14) | — | 9.1 (4) | 5.4 (2) | 1.9 (1) | 1.9 (1) | 2.9 (1) | 1.6 (0) | 1.7 (0) | 8.5 (1) | 16.7 |
| 2024 regional election | 26 May 2024 | — | 53.4 | 36.1 19 | 4.0 2 | 21.3 11 | 16.9 9 | 9.2 4 | 2.6 1 | 1.9 1 | 1.6 0 | 1.4 0 | 0.9 0 | 0.7 0 | 4.1 0 | 14.8 |