# 2025 Portuguese legislative election

A snap legislative election will take place in Portugal on 18 May 2025 to elect members of the Assembly of the Republic to the 17th Legislature. All 230 seats to the Assembly of the Republic will be at stake.
Following accusations and allegations of alleged conflicts of interest in relation to the Prime Minister's family business, the incumbent government called a confidence vote, which it lost on 11 March 2025; and President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa called an election for 18 May, making this the third legislative election in less than four years.

## Background

The Democratic Alliance (AD), composed by Social Democratic Party (PSD), CDS – People's Party (CDS–PP) and the People's Monarchist Party (PPM), led by PSD leader Luís Montenegro, won the 2024 legislative election by a very narrow margin, winning almost 29 percent of the votes and 80 seats in the 230 seat Assembly of the Republic. The Socialist Party (PS), in power between 2015 and 2024 and led by Pedro Nuno Santos, elected in the aftermath of the resignation of then Prime Minister António Costa due to an investigation around alleged corruption involving the award of contracts for lithium and hydrogen businesses, saw a significant decrease in support winning 28 percent of the votes and 78 seats. The populist and far-right party Chega (CH) surged in the elections, gathering 18 percent of the votes and 50 seats in Parliament, becoming kingmaker with the best result for a third party in decades. The Liberal Initiative (IL) was able to hold on to their eight seats and gather five percent of the vote. The left-wing/far-left parties, the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Left Bloc (BE), achieved, again, disappointing results, with BE holding on to their five seats and four percent of the votes, while the Communists' alliance got their worst result ever with just three percent of the votes and four seats. LIVRE nearly surpassed PCP by gathering also three percent of the votes and four seats. People Animals Nature (PAN) was able to win just one seat.
Eleven days after election day, on 21 March 2024, Luis Montenegro was asked by President of the Republic Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa to form a government, a minority one in this case. The new government was sworn into office on 2 April 2024.

### 2025 budget crisis

With the lack of a workable majority, the AD minority government is forced to negotiate with Opposition parties to pass major legislation and this created problems regarding the prospects of a budget for 2025. The Government decided to negotiate with the Socialist Party (PS), however, the odds of a positive outcome from these negotiations were slim as the PS rejected the corporate tax cuts and the proposed "Youth IRS" scheme, which would provide an income tax rate cut for young people under the age of 35, and accused the government of not giving in. President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa warned that a lack of a deal could lead to snap legislative elections, and admitted he was putting pressure on both the major parties to reach a deal.
On 3 October 2024, Luís Montenegro "dropped" several parts of his government's Youth IRS scheme and corporate tax cuts by bringing his new proposals closer to policies defended by the PS, calling it an "irrefutable proposal" for the Socialists. Pedro Nuno Santos recognized the concessions made by the government, but pressed for more conditions on corporate tax cuts, mainly on their timing. The Prime Minister rejected these last conditions made by the PS, but said he was "confident" in the budget being approved by Parliament.
On 17 October 2024, the general-secretary of the PS, Pedro Nuno Santos, announced that the Socialist Party would abstain in the budget vote, thus ensuring the approval of the document with the sole votes of the AD coalition. On 31 October, Parliament passed the budget in its first general reading by an 80-72 vote, with the 78 PS members abstaining. On the final vote, on 29 November 2024, the budget was confirmed by a 79-72 vote, with 77 PS members abstaining.

### Spinumviva case

On 15 February 2025, Correio da Manhã newspaper published an investigation in which it was uncovered that Prime Minister Luís Montenegro's family had a business with real estate interests, called Spinumviva. Montenegro confirmed the existence of the company, but denied any conflict of interest, saying he had sold his shares to his wife in 2022. Chega party criticized the lack of answers from Montenegro and presented a motion of no confidence, however, it was rejected by Parliament by a wide margin, 171 against to 49 in favour. It was later revealed that Montenegro's sale of his shares to his wife was in fact invalid, as the law doesn't allow share sales between spouses, thus making Montenegro still an active shareholder of the company. This raised further questions of possible conflicts of interest and Montenegro was strongly pressed to reveal the full list of clients of his business, but he rejected this.
Two weeks later, on 28 February, Expresso newspaper published that Spinumviva has been receiving a monthly payment of 4,500 euros by one of their main clients, Solverde, a casino company, since 2021, which continued while Montenegro was already Prime Minister. In the aftermath of this report, Spinumviva also disclosed the full list of clients and the services provided. Parties demanded more explanations from the Prime Minister, with Chega demanding the resignation of Montenegro as Prime Minister. On the same day, Luís Montenegro announced an emergency cabinet meeting for March 1st, to "analyze his personal and political situation". He announced that the Government would request a motion of confidence if Parliament doesn't "validate" the Government. The Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) presented a motion of no confidence, but the Socialist Party (PS) positioned itself against such motion. A few days later, the Public Prosecution Service announced that they received an anonymous tip against Luís Montenegro and his company, adding only that they were examining the complaint, while the Socialist Party also announced a Parliamentary inquiry committee to investigate the case. On 5 March, the Communists' motion was rejected, 88 votes against to 14 in favour, with 126 abstentions, but Luís Montenegro announced a vote of confidence, which was scheduled for March 11th.

#### Fall of the government

On 11 March 2025, Luís Montenegro's government fell after losing a vote of confidence in Parliament, 137 against with just 87 in favour. After the results of the motion were announced, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa held meetings with party leaders on 12 March, and a Council of State meeting on 13 March. On 13 March, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa called an election for 18 May 2025.

### Leadership changes and challenges
#### Liberal Initiative

On 8 April 2024, former 2021 Presidential candidate Tiago Mayan Gonçalves, announced a manifesto called "United by liberalism" and said he would be a candidate for the party's leadership when a ballot arrives, thus challenging incumbent leader Rui Rocha. On 20 June 2024, Mayan Gonçalves officially launched his bid for the party's leadership. A few months later, after it was revealed that Tiago Mayan forged signatures under his role as Parish President of Aldoar, Foz do Douro e Nevogilde, he dropped out from the leadership race. A leadership convention was scheduled for 1 and 2 February 2025, with party leader Rui Rocha running for another term. After the withdrawal of Mayan Gonçalves, Rui Malheiro, a party councillor, announced his bid against Rui Rocha. On 2 February 2025, during the party's convention held in Loures with 1,545 registered members to vote, Rui Rocha was reelected with more than 73 percent of the votes:
Ballot: 2 February 2025 :
| Candidate | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Rui Rocha | 73.4 | 73.4 |
| | Rui Malheiro | 26.6 | 26.6 |
| Blank/Invalid ballots | Blank/Invalid ballots | – | – |
| Turnout | Turnout | | |
| Source: ||||

### Date

According to the Portuguese Constitution, an election must be called between 14 September and 14 October of the year that the legislature ends. The election is called by the President of Portugal but is not called at the request of the Prime Minister; however, the President must listen to all of the parties represented in Parliament and the election day must be announced at least 60 days before the election. If an election is called during an ongoing legislature (dissolution of parliament) it must be held at least after 55 days. Election day is the same in all multi-seats constituencies, and should fall on a Sunday or national holiday. In normal circumstances, the next legislative election would, therefore, have taken place no later than 8 October 2028, but it was called early for 18 May 2025.
The President of Portugal has the power to dissolve the Assembly of the Republic by his/her own will. Unlike in other countries, the President can refuse to dissolve the parliament at the request of the Prime Minister or the Assembly of the Republic and all the parties represented in Parliament. If the Prime Minister resigns, the President can appoint a new Prime Minister after listening to all the parties represented in Parliament and then the government programme must be subject to discussion by the Assembly of the Republic, whose members of parliament may present a motion to reject the upcoming government, or dissolve Parliament and call new elections.

### Electoral system

The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved.
The number of seats assigned to each constituency depends on the district magnitude. The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.
The distribution of MPs by constituency for the 2024 legislative election was the following:
| Constituency | Number of MPs |
| Lisbon | 48 |
| Porto | 40 |
| Braga and Setúbal | 19 |
| Aveiro | 16 |
| Leiria | 10 |
| Coimbra, Faro and Santarém | 9 |
| Viseu | 8 |
| Madeira | 6 |
| Azores, Viana do Castelo and Vila Real | 5 |
| Castelo Branco | 4 |
| Beja, Bragança, Évora and Guarda | 3 |
| Portalegre, Europe and Outside Europe | 2 |

## Parties
### Parliamentary factions

The table below lists the parties and/or coalitions represented in the Assembly of the Republic during the 16th legislature (2024–2025) and that will run in the 2025 elections:
| Name | Name | Name | Name | Name | Ideology | Political position | Leader | 2024 result | 2024 result | Current seats | Status |
| Name | Name | Name | Name | Name | Ideology | Political position | Leader | % | Seats | Current seats | Status |
| | AD | | PPD/PSD | Social Democratic Party Partido Social Democrata | Liberal conservatism | Centre-right | Luís Montenegro | 28.8% | 78 / 230 | 78 / 230 | Governing coalition |
| | AD | | CDS–PP | CDS – People's Party CDS – Partido Popular | Christian democracy Conservatism | Centre-right to right-wing | Nuno Melo | 28.8% | 2 / 230 | 2 / 230 | Governing coalition |
| | PS | Socialist Party Partido Socialista | Socialist Party Partido Socialista | Socialist Party Partido Socialista | Social democracy | Centre-left | Pedro Nuno Santos | 28.0% | 78 / 230 | 78 / 230 | Opposition |
| | CH | Enough! Chega! | Enough! Chega! | Enough! Chega! | National conservatism Right-wing populism | Right-wing to far-right | André Ventura | 18.1% | 50 / 230 | 49 / 230 | Opposition |
| | IL | Liberal Initiative Iniciativa Liberal | Liberal Initiative Iniciativa Liberal | Liberal Initiative Iniciativa Liberal | Classical liberalism Right-libertarianism | Centre-right to right-wing | Rui Rocha | 4.9% | 8 / 230 | 8 / 230 | Opposition |
| | BE | Left Bloc Bloco de Esquerda | Left Bloc Bloco de Esquerda | Left Bloc Bloco de Esquerda | Democratic socialism Left-wing populism | Left-wing to far-left | Mariana Mortágua | 4.4% | 5 / 230 | 5 / 230 | Opposition |
| | CDU | | PCP | Portuguese Communist Party Partido Comunista Português | Communism Marxism-Leninism | Left-wing to far-left | Paulo Raimundo | 3.2% | 4 / 230 | 4 / 230 | Opposition |
| | L | FREE LIVRE | FREE LIVRE | FREE LIVRE | Green politics Pro-Europeanism | Centre-left to left-wing | Rui Tavares | 3.2% | 4 / 230 | 4 / 230 | Opposition |
| | PAN | People Animals Nature Pessoas-Animais-Natureza | People Animals Nature Pessoas-Animais-Natureza | People Animals Nature Pessoas-Animais-Natureza | Animal welfare Environmentalism | Centre-left | Inês Sousa Real | 2.0% | 1 / 230 | 1 / 230 | Opposition |
| | Ind. | Independent Independente | Independent Independente | Independent Independente | Miguel Arruda (left the Enough! caucus) | Miguel Arruda (left the Enough! caucus) | Miguel Arruda (left the Enough! caucus) | Miguel Arruda (left the Enough! caucus) | Miguel Arruda (left the Enough! caucus) | 1 / 230 | Opposition |

#### Seat changes

* On 23 January 2025, Chega MP Miguel Arruda left the party following accusations, and a police investigation, that he stole several suitcases at Lisbon Airport and at Ponta Delgada Airport and then sold the items from the suitcases on Vinted. Chega demanded the resignation of Arruda from his seat, but he rejected and decided to remain as an independent.

### Non-represented parties

The table below lists the parties and/or coalitions not represented in the Assembly of the Republic that will also run in the elections.
| Name | Name | Name | Ideology | Political position | Leader | 2024 result | Ref. |
| Name | Name | Name | Ideology | Political position | Leader | % | Ref. |
| | ADN | National Democratic Alternative Alternativa Democrática Nacional | Traditionalism Anti-establishment | Far-right | Joana Amaral Dias | 1.6% | |

## Opinion polling
### Polling aggregations

| Polling aggregator | Last update | | | | | | | | | Lead |
| Renascença | 17 Mar 2025 | 29.3 | 28.6 | 16.9 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| PolitPro | 16 Mar 2025 | 29.6 | 28.8 | 16.6 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| Europe Elects | 12 Mar 2025 | 30 | 28 | 17 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Marktest | 12 Mar 2025 | 29.6 | 29.1 | 16.2 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| Politico | 10 Mar 2025 | 30 | 29 | 16 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 2024 legislative election | 10 Mar 2024 | 28.8 80 | 28.0 78 | 18.1 50 | 4.9 8 | 4.4 5 | 3.2 4 | 3.2 4 | 2.0 1 | 0.8 |