# M23 campaign (2022–present)

vteConflicts in DR Congo :
Second Congo War :
The M23 campaign is an ongoing series of military offensives launched by the March 23 Movement (M23), a Rwandan-backed rebel paramilitary group in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, since March 2022. In November 2021, the M23 first launched attacks against the Congolese military (FARDC) and MONUSCO, seizing military positions in Ndiza, Cyanzu, and Runyoni in North Kivu Province. This coincided with the deployment of Uganda People's Defence Force (UPDF) to the region to combat the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), a Ugandan rebel group operating in the Congo's North Kivu and Ituri provinces.
The conflict escalated between March and June 2022, as M23 overran key areas in Rutshuru Territory, including the strategic border town of Bunagana, forcing Congolese soldiers to flee into Uganda. Uganda alleged that Rwanda orchestrated the offensive to undermine UPDF operations against the ADF, while Rwanda counterclaimed that Uganda was leveraging M23 elements to threaten its national security. The DRC accused Rwanda of provisioning armaments and reorganizing the insurgency, a claim substantiated by a United Nations Security Council Group of Experts report. Rwanda and M23, in turn, accused the DRC of collaborating with the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) and claimed their campaign aimed to protect Banyamulenge from FDLR aggression. A UNSC report noted that Rwandan military incursions into Congolese territory had begun prior to alleged FARDC-FDLR cooperation, with analysts posited that M23's resurgence was primarily driven by economic and commercial interests rather than ethno-political or security concerns.
The conflict drew regional involvement, leading the East African Community (EAC) to deploy the East African Community Regional Force (EACRF) to stabilize the situation. On 26 January 2023, M23 captured Kitchanga. Exasperated by the perceived inaction of the EACRF, the Congolese government sought military assistance from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and established a reserve corps, which encouraged the formation of militias under the Wazalendo movement near M23-controlled areas. In June 2023, Human Rights Watch documented widespread human rights abuses by M23, including extrajudicial executions, sexual violence, and other war crimes, with allegations of Rwandan complicity. The UNSC subsequently called for sanctions against M23 leaders and implicated high-ranking Rwandan officials in the violence. By March 2024, M23 had launched further offensives, including a northern push into Rutshuru Territory, capturing Rwindi and the Vitshumbi fishery along Lake Edward. An April UNSC-commissioned report estimated that between 3,000 and 4,000 Rwandan Defence Force (RDF) troops were present in eastern DRC, surpassing the estimated 3,000 M23 combatants. In June 2024, M23 and RDF forces seized Kanyabayonga and Kirumba and entering Lubero Territory for the first time. Diplomatic efforts, led by Angolan President João Lourenço, faltered after President Paul Kagame failed to attend a tripartite summit in Luanda on 15 December, which was meant to address the FDLR issue alongside President Félix Tshisekedi and President Lourenço. Rwanda's absence fueled suspicions that its involvement in eastern DRC was driven primarily by economic interests, particularly access to Kivu's mineral resources, rather than security concerns.
Beginning in January 2025, M23 began making major advances towards Goma and Bukavu, the provincial capitals of North Kivu and South Kivu, with alleged Rwandan backing, intensifying growing tensions between the two nations. By 30 January, M23 had captured all of Goma and began an advance towards Bukavu, capturing the town by 16 February. Following the capture of Goma, M23 announced their intentions to march on Kinshasa.

## Background

The March 23 Movement waged a rebellion in the northeastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) from 2012 to 2013. M23 was formed by deserters of the National Congress for the Defence of the People (CNDP), who had integrated into the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (FARDC) following a 2009 peace agreement. The agreement, which was negotiated after the arrest of CNDP leader General Laurent Nkunda, included provisions for prisoner releases, CNDP's transformation into a political party, refugee reintegration, and the incorporation of CNDP members into government institutions and the national army. However, resistance from local communities—who viewed CNDP leaders as perpetrators of crimes—hindered the full implementation of these measures. Ex-CNDP fighters within the military were accused of exploiting their positions for illegal mineral trade. The rebellion formally commenced on 6 May 2012, culminating in clashes with the Congolese army and the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO). Both the CNDP as well as the March 23 Movement's first rebellion were supported by Rwanda and Uganda. Human Rights Watch accused M23 of committing war crimes, including summary executions, sexual violence, and forced recruitment, and suggested that some Rwandan officials were complicit due to their continued support for M23 operations. The uprising was defeated by a joint campaign of the DRC and MONUSCO force. After agreeing to a peace deal, M23 was largely dismantled, its fighters disarmed and moved into refugee camps in Uganda.
Despite the agreement, hostilities between M23 and the DR Congo continued. In 2017, M23 commander Sultani Makenga and about 100 to 200 of his followers fled from Uganda to resume their insurgency, setting up camp at Mount Mikeno in the border area between Rwanda, Uganda, and the DR Congo. On 7 November 2021, Makenga's troops carried out a small-scale attack on FARDC positions in Ndiza, Cyanzu, and Runyoni, resulting in four fatalities. However, this offensive had little impact, as M23 no longer received significant international support. That same month, Uganda and the DRC had greatly improved their relations, cooperating against a common enemy, the Allied Democratic Forces, during Operation Shujaa. In early 2022, a growing number of M23 combatants began leaving their camps and moving back to the DRC; the rebel movement launched more attacks in February 2022, but these were repelled. The M23 leadership argued that parts of their movement had resumed the insurgency because the conditions of the 2013 peace deal were not being honored by the DRC government. The rebels also argued that they were attempting to defend Kivu's Tutsi minority from attacks by Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), although critics pointed out that the FDLR no longer posed a substantial threat and that M23 operations had commenced before FARDC-FDLR cooperation intensified. Meanwhile, Ugandan authorities accused Rwanda of reigniting M23's insurgency after its economic interests in the DRC were disrupted. Earlier, in June 2021, Presidents Paul Kagame and Félix Tshisekedi signed an agreement permitting Dither Ltd—allegedly linked to the Rwandan military—to refine gold extracted by Sakima. This deal was seen as an effort to cut off funding for armed groups profiting from mineral smuggling. However, as allegations of Rwandan backing for M23 grew, the DRC suspended the agreement in early June 2022.
The situation was further complicated by the factionalism within M23, as the movement was split into rival groups, namely the "Alliance for the Salvation of the People" headed by Jean-Marie Runiga, and the "Revolutionary Army of Congo" of Bertrand Bisimwa respectively. In addition, Makenga's group was de facto separate from the other M23 forces which were still mainly based in Uganda. Later research organized by the United Nations Security Council suggested that Makenga's return to an insurgency had started the gradual rearmament and restoration of M23, with Bisimwa's "Revolutionary Army of Congo" joining these efforts in late 2021 by reorganizing its remaining fighters and recruiting new ones in cooperation with Makenga. The headquarters of the restored M23 is believed to be located at Mount Sabyinyo.
By 2022, M23 was just one of 120 armed groups that operated in the eastern DR Congo. Before March 2022, the Congolese government made attempts to reinforce its position against the resurgent M23 by sending more troops. However, such measures weakened its presence in other areas, such as those affected by the Allied Democratic Forces insurgency.

## Offensive
### Initial rebel attacks

In the night of 27 March 2022, M23 rebels launched a new offensive in North Kivu, first attacking the villages of Tshanzu and Runyoni in the Rutshuru Territory from their strongholds at the surrounding hills. The two villages had been important strongholds of the M23 Movement during the 2012–13 rebellion. The rebel attack was reportedly led by Sultani Makenga. The DRC government claimed that Rwanda supported the insurgent operation, a claim which was denied by the Rwandan government and the rebels. International Crisis Group researcher Onesphore Sematumba argued that claims about Rwandan aid were believable. He suggested that the resurgence of M23 was probably influenced by Rwanda's wish to stop an infrastructure project that would link the DR Congo and Uganda.
On 29 March, the FARDC was able to repel a rebel attack against the border town of Bunagana, but M23 captured several villages, including Mugingo, Gasiza, Chengerero, Rugamba, Kibote, Baseke and Kabindi. In addition, a UN helicopter crashed at Tshanzu, killing eight MONUSCO peacekeepers (six Pakistanis, a Russian, and a Serbian). The FARDC blamed M23 rebels for shooting down the aircraft. At Bunagana, the FARDC received support by the Uganda People's Defence Force (UPDF). UPDF ground forces crossed the border, while Ugandan aircraft bombed the rebels. By 1 April, the clashes at Rutshuru had displaced 46,000 locals according to UNHCR. Meanwhile, the M23 fighters temporarily retreated to their mountain bases, with their first attacks being regarded as a failure. They proclaimed a unilateral ceasefire. One ex-M23 officer told the newspaper taz that it was entirely unclear what the rebel offensive was trying to achieve, with him speculating that Makenga was possibly hoping for one last battle to die in his homeland.

### Failure of peace talks and resumption of fighting

On 6 April, the FARDC rejected any negotiations with the M23 forces based in the DR Congo, and started a counter-attack. Four days later, M23 announced that it would withdraw its troops from any villages captured during the earlier clashes. However, as the fighting raged on, FARDC increasingly lost ground to the insurgents. In late April, the DRC government and several rebel groups held peace talks in Nairobi, but the Bisimwa faction of M23 voluntarily left or was expelled from the negotiations due to the ongoing clashes in North Kivu.
M23 forces, reportedly led by Makenga and including the Bisimwa faction, restarted their offensive in May. This operation was reportedly supported by at least 1,000 Rwandan soldiers. According to a local, M23 overran Kibumba on 18 May. On 19 May, M23 rebels attacked MONUSCO peacekeepers at Shangi, Rutshuru Territory, as the latter joined the FARDC in counter-insurgency operations. The rebel leadership declared that the attack was in response to a previous joint FARDC-FDLR operation. From 22 May, the rebels attempted to advance on North Kivu's provincial capital, Goma, displacing 70,000 people. From 22 to 23 May, a battle raged at Kibumba, while the insurgents temporarily seized Rumangabo before it was retaken by the FARDC. According to independent researchers, the insurgents were supported by Rwandan soldiers during the battle for Rumangabo.
On 25 May, M23 reached Goma's outskirts, but were repelled by MONUSCO, FARDC, and the FDLR after heavy fighting. The insurgents subsequently retreated, and there was a pause in fighting for the rest of the month. At this point, the FARDC accused the Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) of fighting directly alongside the rebels, claiming that local vigilantes had captured two Rwandan soldiers. On the other side, Rwanda claimed that the DR Congo had fired rockets into its territory, was aided by the FDLR, and had "abducted" the two RDF soldiers. The fighting also stoked local ethnic tensions; North Kivu's deputy police commander, Francois-Xavier Aba van Ang, released a video urging civilians to organize as militiamen to combat M23 in a "people's war". The FARDC also armed existing local militias so that they could assist in the campaign against M23.

### Fall of Bunagana, further rebel advances, and pro-government counter-attacks

By early June, clashes again took place at Bunagana. M23 militants reportedly attacked a MONUSCO force at Muhati, Rutshuru Territory, on 8 June. On 12 June, the FARDC repelled another M23 attack on Bunagana, coinciding with the visit of King Philippe of Belgium at Bukavu to the south. Unlike the previous attack on Bunagana, however, the Ugandan security forces across the border did not intervene and instead retreated from the hills overlooking the town. M23 captured Bunagana on the following day, reportedly after encircling it and thus forcing the local garrison of 137 soldiers and 37 police officers to retreat to Kisoro in Uganda. There, they surrendered to the local Ugandan security forces. Many civilians also fled across the border. Later, the commanders of the Bunagana garrison, Colonels Ndyadya and Lobo, and the regional sector commander, Peter Cirimwami Nkuba, accused each other of having given the order to retreat.
North Kivu's military governor Constant Ndima Kongba initially denied that the FARDC had lost the city, but the FARDC spokesman Sylvain Ekenge later declared that the fall of Bunagana constituted "no less than an invasion" by Rwanda. Tensions between Rwanda and the DR Congo consequently continued to escalate, as the latter suspended "all agreements" with the former. At this point, two senior Congolese security sources and members of the Congolese parliament also accused Uganda of supporting the rebel offensive. The Congolese parliamentarians claimed that the Ugandan retreat before the rebel attack had facilitated the takeover, and specifically singled out Muhoozi Kainerugaba, head of the Ugandan troops involved in Operation Shujaa, for supporting M23. The DR Congo proceeded to terminate the military cooperation with Uganda. The Ugandan government subsequently halted Operation Shujaa, while the Ugandan military claimed that M23's latest attacks did not pose a threat to Ugandan citizens and equipment, making an intervention on their part unnecessary. The local MONUSCO leadership stated that the claims about the Ugandan support for M23 were "nonsense" and called for calm and cooperation.
Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta reacted to the fall of Bunagana and the growing regional tensions by calling for the East African Community (EAC) to "immediate[ly]" organize a new peacekeeping mission called the "East African Regional Force" to restore security in the eastern DR Congo. Meanwhile, MONUSCO began to prepare its local troops to support the efforts of the Congolese security forces to retake the city. FARDC troops belonging to operations sector "Sokola 2" launched an attack from Kabindi on 16 June, and later claimed that they had recaptured Bunagana. However, the city was reportedly still in rebel hands on the following day, with heavy fighting taking place to its west. M23 reportedly counter-attacked, capturing the town of Tshengerero and the villages of Bugusa, Kabindi and Rangira. The insurgents were advancing on Rutshuru, and shot down a FARDC helicopter. Fighting had also spread into the Virunga National Park. Environmentalists pointed out that this threatened the survival of the local mountain gorillas.
The renewed advances of M23 were reportedly part of a plan by Sultani Makenga to cut off and eventually capture Goma, hoping to extract political concessions from the Congolese government in this way. By 18–19 June, the frontline had stabilized along the Rutshuru-Bunagana axis. Combined FARDC-MONUSCO forces still held settlements in the direct vicinity of Tshengerero such as Ntamugenga and Rwanguba, including the latter's important bridge. Fighting shifted to the Runyoni-Rumangabo axis, where clashes were reported at the villages of Kavumu and Bikenge. Meanwhile, an EAC meeting was organized in Nairobi to discuss the diplomatic tensions between the DR Congo, Rwanda, and Uganda as well as the deployment of a new peacekeeping force in reaction to the M23 attacks. The DRC government declared that it would welcome an EAC peacekeeping mission, but only under the condition of Rwanda's exclusion from the operation. The EAC subsequently called on M23 to retreat from Bunagana as precondition for a ceasefire, but the insurgents rejected the order. Instead, M23 reopened the Bunagana border post under its own administration, whereupon North Kivu's government forbid the import and export of goods through rebel-held territory.

### Pro-government forces retake territory and stalemate

From 19 to 22 June, clashes continued as M23 attempted to break through FARDC defense positions. At first, the rebels assaulted villages along the southern axis, but were repelled at Karambi, Kitagoma and Kitovu, Bweza, and Busanza. They subsequently focused on Bikenge, Ruvumu, Shangi, and Bukima, overrunning the villages before the FARDC organized a counter-attack. The military was able to retake most of these settlements, though Ruvumu, Buharo, and Rutokara reportedly remained rebel-held. Overall, the pro-government forces generally held their positions, but the rebel assaults increasingly threatened the Matebe-Rwanguba axis. Human Rights Watch reported that 17 civilians, including two children, had been summarily executed on 21 June by the M23 for suspected collaboration with the FARDC. According to the newspaper Eco News, the FARDC reportedly inflicted a defeat on M23 at the Runyoni frontline around this time, wounding Sultani Makenga and killing another rebel commander, Colonel Yusuf Mboneza. Mboneza's death was later disputed by pro-M23 sources. There was a lull in fighting from 24 to 27 June. Combat resumed on 28 June, as rebels attacked FARDC positions at Bushandaba, Ruseke and the strategic hill of Bikona. Pro-government forces, consisting of the military and police, counter-attacked, and retook the villages of Nkokwe, Ruvumu, Rugarama, Rutakara, Ntamugenga and Rutsiro. On 29 June, the FARDC continued its advance, capturing Kabindi and Chengerero, though M23 militants countered by attacking Rutsiro.
On 1 July, the FARDC claimed to had won a major victory over M23 and allied Rwandan troops after heavy fighting at Rutsiro, Ntamugenga and Nyabikona, completely evicting the insurgents from the Bweza grouping (groupement) in Rutshuru. Clashes continued at Bikenge and Ruseke on 4 July, as the FARDC repelled M23 assaults. On 6 July, the FARDC reorganized the leadership of the forces opposing M23 to improve their efficiency; in addition, Rwandan President Paul Kagame and the Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi held a meeting on the same day. According to the Congolese side, a ceasefire and the withdrawal of M23 from Congolese soil was agreed upon. Instead of adhering to this agreement, the rebels attacked Kanyabusoro and Rwanguba on the following day. Over the next days, clashes continued at various villages in the Bweza and Jomba groupements, as M23 attempted to retake territory. At the same time, however, combat died down along other parts of the frontline.
In the following days, combat largely ceased in the Bweza and Jomba groupements, but fighting erupted in the Kisigari groupement and at two important hills near Rumangabo. Heavy fighting also took place in the Bashali-Mukoto groupement of Bashali Chiefdom, as two "Nyatura" factions clashed. One of them was a "dissident" group led by Jean-Marie Nyatura who was considered close to M23; Jean-Marie Nyatura's force attempted to capture several villages before being evicted from most of them by its local rivals. After this point, there was again a lull in fighting. Negotiations continued between Rwanda and the DR Congo under international mediation, though little progress was made. On 14 July, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni made another attempt at convincing M23 and the Congolese government to organize a ceasefire. Meanwhile, MONUSCO and the FARDC announced that they were shifting forces from other areas to prepare for an operation to fully push M23 back. On 18 July, Congolese government spokesman Patrick Muyaya Katembwe reaffirmed that any negotiations with the rebels depended on M23 retreating from its occupied territory beforehand.
By the end of July, M23 was installing its own officials in the occupied territories and raised a tax. Violent protests also erupted in Goma and other eastern Congolese cities, with civilians attacking MONUSCO members and buildings, accusing the organization of inaction in the face of the ongoing regional rebellions. Protesters, MONUSCO peacekeepers, and bystanders were killed during the clashes. The North Africa Post alleged that the rebels had used the protests as cover for attacks, and had been involved in an attack on Moroccan peacekeepers at Nyamilima. One MONUSCO soldier was killed in a direct clash with M23 at Bunagana. On 27 July, fighting between M23 and FARDC resumed at Kabingo, Rutshuru, as the rebels attempted to harvest the crops planted by locals but were confronted by government soldiers. On 2 August, the rebels and FARDC fought at five villages in Rutshuru. In the following weeks, however, a truce held along the frontline. This was condemned by many local civilians who argued that it allowed the rebels to consolidate their territorial gains.
On 15 August, the first contingent of East African Community peacekeepers arrived in Kivu. This group, consisting of Burundian soldiers, pledged to assist in the campaign against M23 and other insurgent factions. The arrival of the Burundian peacekeepers received mixed reactions by local civil groups; some welcomed them, some considered the Burundians to be exploitative foreigners, and some took a more neutral stance. Sporadic clashes restarted on 16 August, when rebels, allegedly supported by Rwandan troops, attacked Rwanguba, Rangira, and Muhibira in Rutshuru. The M23 leadership claimed that these operations were in response to FARDC aggression, and declared that it wanted a "dialogue" with the government. On 19 August, M23 shelled FARDC positions at Jomba, Bweza and Busanza.

### Renewed offensive

Fighting renewed on 20 October after according to the FARDC, M23 attacked a military post. on 23 October M23 group captured the town of Ntamugenga killing five soldiers, fighting soon spread to the strategic RN2, four civilians were killed and 40 were injured in the fighting. By 24 October fighting caused more than 23,000 people to flee their homes. the offensive continued along the RN2 highway leading to M23 capturing the towns of Rubare, Kalengera, and Kako. On 29 October M23 rebels took control of Rutshuru and Kiwanja. Around this time, allegedly Rwandan-equipped Nyatura rebels clashed with FDLR militants at in Rugari. In response to the offensive, the government of the DRC ordered the Rwandan Ambassador to the country, Vincent Karega, to leave within the next 48 hours.
Anti-Rwandan protests broke out on 31 October in Goma, demanding that the DRC leave the East African Community and that Russia intervene in the conflict. Government spokesman Patrick Muyaya said that the DRC would not negotiate with M23. On 2 November, Kenya announced that it would send 900 soldiers to fight against the M23. Riots broke out in Goma after rumors of the UN transporting M23, and several UN vehicles were burned by rioting civilians. The UN accounted a "strategic and tactical withdrawal" from the Rumangabo military base. On 7 November, the Congolese military stated they were training 3,000 new recruits to go and fight M23, and soon after began to bomb the rebels with two fighter jets. Rwanda protested that a Congolese Air Force Sukhoi Su-25 had violated its airspace.
By 15 November 2022, M23 had pushed to the towns of Rugari and Tongo clashing with the FARDC. A M23 attack on Kibumba was initially repelled. As the insurgents advanced, hundreds of civilians fled. By 17 November, M23 claimed to have captured the towns of Kibumba, Ruhunda, Buhumba, Kabuhanga, Tongo, and Mulimbi from the FDLR who they accuse of working with the Congolese army. The Ugandan military said that they would participate in the fight against the M23 joining Kenyan troops. On 18 November, Rwanda declared a ceasefire on behalf of the rebels. By late November, the FARDC had reportedly formed a coalition with several local militias, including FLDR, Mai-Mai groups, and some Nyatura factions.
A MONUSCO investigation reported in December that massacres by the M23 in November killed at least 131 civilians in the Rutshuru Territory villages of Bambo and Kishishe. The victims included 102 men, 17 women and 12 children, each of whom were "arbitrarily executed ... as part of reprisals against the civilian population" who were perceived to be aligned with the government. On 23 December, M23 was forced by heavy international pressure to officially hand over Kibumba to the EAC Regional Force. Despite this, their withdrawal was only partial; the insurgents maintained a presence in the town's outskirts. FARDC declared the alleged handover of Kibumba a "sham", intended to distract from M23's attempts to advance in other areas. On 28 December 2022, South Sudan sent a contingency of 750 troops to join the East African Contingency to be stationed in Goma. Over the next weeks, heavy fighting took place between M23 and a number of rival militias allied to FARDC, including APCLS which declared its aim to capture Bwiza from the rebels. Meanwhile, M23 captured several villages and the town of Nyamilima near the Ugandan border.
In January, clashes continued even as M23 declared its intention to surrender the Rumangabo military base to the EAC Regional Force. On 18 January Felix Tshisekedi accused the M23 of not withdrawing from the seized territory as agreed. On 24 January a Congolese Su-25 was damaged by ground fire from Rwanda after Rwanda said it violated its airspace. On 27 January M23 captured the city of Kitshanga causing people to flee and take refuge in the nearby UN base. Kitshanga's capture cut off the road linking Butembo, North Kivu's second largest city, to Goma. After two days of heavy fighting, M23 seized the village of Mushaki on February 24, forcing civilians to flee and threatening supply routes to Goma. Three days later M23 took the town of Rubaya and its coltan mines. The next day, the town of Mweso also fell to the rebels.
In March, continued clashes caused 100,000 civilians to flee their homes. Further attempts to implement a ceasefire, including one organized by Angola, had failed. However, M23 did withdraw from a few villages to hand them over to the EAC Regional Force. At this point, the insurgents controlled much of the land north of Goma, while still advancing westward. In late March and early April, M23 rebels vacated some villages, though also fought with a rival Nyatura faction during this withdrawal. M23 also kept attacking the FARDC in other areas.
On 3 April, Ugandan EAC soldiers entered Bunagana. However, instead of replacing the M23 occupation (as previously agreed), the peacekeepers coexisted with the rebels. Such an arrangement was also observed at Rumangabo, where Kenyans and M23 inhabited the same base, and along the Sake-Kilolirwe-Kitshanga-Mwesso axis, where Burundian and rebel forces operated next to each other. In addition, local sources suggested that M23 had begun to arm and train other militias. On 10 April, M23 rebels completely retreated from the Bwito chiefdom in Rutshuru, allowing EAC peacekeepers to move in. On the other side, the insurgents fortified and reinforced their positions in Kibumba, in one case in the direct vicinity to Kenyan EAC troops.
In October 2023, the DRC ordered the EAC force in the country to leave by 8 December, due to a "lack of satisfactory results on the ground". On 26 October, the M23 rebels launched an offensive on Bambo, seizing the town. Meanwhile, fighting continued to close in on the city of Goma, with clashes taking place 20 kilometers from the city.
On 4 February 2024, M23 seized the town of Shasha, severing a road linking Goma to outside areas- M23 subsequently seized the towns of Kihindo, Kituva, Bukobati, and Nyamubingwa, and was in control of the Goma-Minova road by 5 February. The fighting caused many civilians and the Congolese military to flee to the town of Minova, and M23 ended up in control of all routes leading out of Goma. The M23 rebels were advancing on the town of Sake by 7 February, causing many in the town to flee to Goma. The town of Sake had been heavily defended by the Congolese government and the forces of MONUSCO over the course of a year.
On 20 June, Rwandan president Paul Kagame declared to France 24, "we are ready to fight" against the DRC if necessary, while evading questions about Rwanda's military presence in the region. In July 2024, a report commissioned by the UN Security Council disclosed that between 3,000 and 4,000 Rwandan military interventions and operations had been conducted in the Nyiragongo, Rutshuru, and Masisi territories, collaborating with M23 rebels, with "Kigali exercising significant control over the rebel group's operations." The report estimated that by April, the number of Rwandan troops was "matching if not surpassing" the estimated 3,000 M23 soldiers. It includes authenticated photographs, drone footage, video recordings, testimonies, and intelligence substantiating the RDF's systematic border incursions. The evidence depicts rows of armed personnel in uniform, operating equipment such as artillery, armored vehicles with radar and anti-aircraft missile systems, and troop transport trucks. It also reveals that children as young as 12 were recruited from "nearly all refugee camps in Rwanda" by intelligence officers through false promises of payment or employment, only to be sent to training camps in the rebel-controlled zone under the supervision of Rwandan soldiers and M23 combatants. On 5 August, nearly a hundred officers of the Congolese national police fled to Uganda as fighting between M23 and the Congolese army intensified. Diplomatic efforts led by Angolan President João Lourenço stalled after the Rwandan delegation failed to attend a tripartite summit on 15 December in Luanda, which was intended to discuss the neutralization of the FDLR alongside Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi and President Lourenço. Rwanda's absence heightened suspicions that its involvement in the DRC was driven primarily by economic interests, particularly access to the mineral resources in Kivu, rather than security-related concerns.

### January 2025: Intensified hostilities

On 4 January, M23 seized Masisi, a town with a population of 40,000 and the administrative seat of Masisi Territory. Agence France-Presse said that M23 forces had previously captured the Katale area before entering Masisi. On 9 January, Nobel laureate Denis Mukwege called for the international community to impose strong sanctions on Rwanda, urging action beyond verbal condemnations. The same day, M23 forces began moving toward Rubaya, a key area for the extraction of coltan, a mineral vital to global technology supply chains. On 13 January, FARDC reported successfully repelling an M23 offensive on its newly established positions in Ngungu, in the Mupfuni-Shanga groupement. FARDC conducted airstrikes in Mbingi, a region it was expected to control but failed to maintain for more than a day due to reinforcements arriving for M23. The following day, M23 fighters based in Mulimbi launched an assault on the Wazalendo stronghold in the Lubwe Sud urban area, within the Tongo groupement of Bwito Chiefdom. During an ambush by Wazalendo near Kiseguro, located in the Binza groupement in Rutshuru Territory, five members of the M23/RDF coalition were killed. M23 fighters were apprehended while looting agricultural products from farmers. Explosions from both heavy and light weaponry echoed for several hours after the ambush, particularly in the localities of Kiseguro and Ngwenda, where Wazalendo forces engaged in combat with M23 troops. On the same day, M23 seized control of Luofu, approximately 60 kilometers from Lubero-center in Lubero Territory, which had been under FARDC control for over two days. Humanitarian sources detailed accounts of atrocities, including the sexual assault of five young girls in Kalungu, 15 kilometers south of Minova in the Buzi groupement, Kalehe Territory, and two additional women in Bihovu, a locality within Shanje in Lowa-Numbi village.
By 15 January, clashes between FARDC and M23 rebels continued in Alimbongo and Luofu villages within Lubero Territory. That day, Wazalendo forces mounted another ambush in Kihondo, located within the Bwito Chiefdom. The engagement resulted in nine civilian fatalities perpetrated by M23 combatants. Kihondo was subsequently occupied by FARDC, while Nyanzale was bifurcated—its southern region held by Wazalendo and the northern portion controlled by the M23-RDF coalition. On 16 January, three civilians were shot in Masisi Territory, with one dying instantly and two critically injured and hospitalized. In Ngungu, FARDC forces regrouped and moved toward Numbi in an attempt to reclaim the lost area. On 17 January, one civilian was killed and two others injured by gunfire in Masisi-center. That morning, M23 forces advanced toward Kami-Lwanguba, Mashaki, Kironge, and Busekere, capturing a significant portion of Buabo while moving toward Kilambo. FARDC forces remained positioned in Luashi and around Kahongole, near Kahanga and Kasura. Meanwhile, Wazalendo units were also present in Buabo. On 18 January, President Félix Tshisekedi reaffirmed Kinshasa's refusal to engage in dialogue with M23, stating, "Legitimizing these criminals would be an insult to the victims and to international law". Tshisekedi criticized Kigali for its continued provocations, violations of agreements, and active support for M23, emphasizing that these actions compromised the credibility of the peace process outlined in the Luanda Agreement.
On 19 January, the M23-RDF coalition annexed the mineral-rich towns of Lumbishi and Changue in Kalehe Territory. On 20 January, the coalition launched a series of bombings targeting hills overlooking Sake in the Kamuronza groupement of Masisi Territory, which targeted FARDC and Wazalendo positions, primarily affected the locality of Kimoka near the Lushagala displaced persons camp. Despite the intensity of the attacks, the coalition was repelled. However, later that evening, M23 forces captured Minova after intense fighting in Masisi Territory. Minova became the first significant urban center in South Kivu to fall to M23. The occupation exacerbated an already precarious humanitarian situation, inflating the prices of essential commodities and displacing thousands more. Reports from the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) indicated that 178,079 internally displaced persons sought refuge across seven health areas surrounding Minova, contributing to the swelling count of 700,000 displaced persons already registered in the Buzi groupement. By 21 January, rebel forces had deployed across multiple locations within the town, commandeering positions previously held by FARDC and Wazalendo forces. Strategic vantage points such as Katale, Kachiazo, and the hills overlooking Minova were occupied to ensure dominion over Lake Kivu. M23 forces then moved toward Kasunyu, a route leading to both Goma and Rwanda, effectively cutting off a critical supply route to Goma. The rebels also advanced toward Kalungu, located 7 kilometers from Minova, with the potential to reach Nyabibwe, another mining hub. The axis also pointed toward Kavumu, home to a regional airport. Bweremana was taken by M23 following an artillery assault against FARDC forces. The situation rapidly escalated into a humanitarian crisis, compelling numerous residents to flee to safer locations, such as Burora and Nyamoma. FARDC announced that they are continuing their fight against the M23 rebels and RDF on multiple fronts in the eastern region of the country, asserting that they are containing "the enemy" in the areas of Lubero, Sake, and Nyiragongo, while admitting to "breakthroughs" by M23 in Bweremana and Minova.
By 22 January, M23 had entrenched itself within Minova and Kalungu in the Buzi groupement and expanded its dominion to Makelele and Butale in the Mbinga-Nord groupement. OCHA concurrently reported that the violence led to large-scale population displacement, with over 178,000 people newly displaced from Bweremana, Minova, and Kalungu, and 125 injured people evacuated to Goma for advanced medical care. Meanwhile, Actualite.cd reported that at least 18 civilians, predominantly farmers, lost their lives during M23's assault on Bweremana and Minova. Goma experienced an electricity outage due to a SNEL (Société Nationale d'Électricité) failure on the 70 kV high-voltage line linking Bukavu to Goma, with SNEL informing customers that the situation was "beyond its control". South Africa dispatched Minister of Defence and Veterans Affairs Angie Motshekga to the DRC, facilitating an appraisal of the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) contingent embedded within the SADC Mission in the DRC (SAMIDRC) combatting M23. On 23 January, intensified clashes erupted as the M23-RDF coalition launched a pre-dawn offensive against FARDC and Wazalendo positions near Sake, encompassing strategic corridors such as the Sake-Kirotshe, Sake-Mushaki, and Sake-Kitshanga roads. The SADC Force, stationed in Sake, sustained casualties, including seven fatalities among South African personnel and over ten injuries. MONUSCO mobilized reinforcements to fortify defenses around Sake and Goma but remained absent in Minova due to mandate restrictions. Meanwhile, in Nyiragongo Territory, residents of Rusayo in the Mudja groupement reported incessant artillery and small arms fire. Simultaneous attacks by M23-RDF forces targeted Wazalendo and FARDC positions in Kilimanyoka and Kanyamahoro, approximately 20 kilometers north of Goma. FARDC and Wazalendo successfully counterattacked, repelling M23 forces attempting to entrench themselves on Nditi Hill, near the Virunga National Park. Two civilians died in a bombing incident in the Turunga village by M23 and RDF coalition. In Lubero Territory, three civilians, including a woman and a child, were wounded when a bomb fired by M23 from the hills surrounding the town of Alimbongo exploded in Lubango, 45 kilometers away from Lubero-centre. In Kalehe Territory, two civilians were killed and several others wounded after M23's heavy bombing by Sukhoi planes on Nyundo hill in the Chondo village.
On the morning of 24 January, around 4 a.m., M23 launched explosives at multiple FARDC and Wazalendo resistance positions, particularly targeting Kanyamahoro, far from Kibati, heading towards Kibumba. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres condemned the actions of M23, calling for an immediate cessation of their advance, the withdrawal from occupied territories, and adherence to the 31 July 2024 ceasefire agreement, stating, "All actors must uphold the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the DRC and cease all forms of support to armed groups, whether domestic or foreign". That evening, the military governor of North Kivu, Major General Peter Cirimwami Nkuba, was shot at approximately 9:00 p.m. in Sake. Cirimwami was subsequently evacuated to Kinshasa, where his death was confirmed. Five MONUSCO peacekeepers sustained injuries, while four others had been wounded the previous day during combat in the same region. CBCA Hospital in Ndosho admitted over 256 wounded individuals, including 90 civilians with severe injuries from gunfire and shelling. Nicolas de Rivière, France's Ambassador to the UN, reaffirmed France's support for the sovereignty and Kinshasa's request for an emergency open session of the United Nations Security Council. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan advocated for a peaceful resolution to the conflict, expressed support for Angola's mediation efforts, and affirmed his readiness to support any initiative promoting peace in the African Great Lakes region. The German Foreign Ministry urgently called for Rwanda and M23 to immediately cease their military actions. French politician Jean-Luc Mélenchon accused Rwanda of orchestrating an "invasion" of the DRC, asserting, "Rwanda is organizing the annexation of the neighboring province into Congolese territory". President João Lourenço condemned the occupation of Sake and Minova by the M23-RDF coalition, declaring, "These irresponsible actions by the M23 and its supporters are worsening the humanitarian situation, particularly around Goma, and threatening regional security". He assured the integrity and security of the troops of the Enhanced Ad Hoc Verification Mechanism (MVA-R) deployed in Goma as part of regional peace initiatives.
On 25 January, fighting broke out between FARDC supported by Wazalendo and M23 supported by RDF advanced in the Masisi Territory's Mweso axis in the Bashali Chiefdom and the Sake axis in the Bahunde Chiefdom, with FARDC and Wazalendo attempting to repel M23 and the RDF coalition while trying to halt their advance toward Goma, beginning the battle of the city on its outskirts. In Mweso, at least two civilians, a woman and a child, who had been shot, died from their injuries shortly after being admitted to Mweso General Referral Hospital (Hôpital Général de Référence de Mweso). Three Malawian Defence Force (MDF) soldiers, part of the regional mission SAMIDRC, were killed in Sake, while nine SANDF soldiers lost their lives after succeeding in halting the M23 advance toward Goma and pushing the rebels back. Six UN peacekeepers, from South Africa and Uruguay, were killed in M23 attacks.

### Goma under siege and escalation of the conflict
#### Attacks on displacement camps, civilian casualties, press attacks, and infrastructure disruptions

On 26 January at approximately 11:00 a.m., a bomb struck the Rusayo 1 and Rusayo 2 camps for displaced persons in Nyiragongo Territory, killing ten people, including women and children, while numerous injuries were reported. On the same day, Actualite.cd reported that over 90 war-wounded, primarily suffering gunshot wounds, from various locations in Kalehe Territory and others from Goma hospital, had been receiving treatment by the ICRC at the Bukavu Provincial General Referral Hospital (Hôpital Général Provincial de Référence de Bukavu) since 1 January. Three Sky News journalists, a reporter from Radio France Internationale/Agence France-Presse, and a journalist from Sake FM were attacked in Kihisi in Nyiragongo Territory while covering the dire situation of fleeing populations. In response to these developments, Congolese government spokesperson Patrick Muyaya Katembwe criticized the African Union Commission for referring to M23 as a "political-military opposition", emphasizing that the group is a terrorist organization supported by Rwanda. The government accused the African Union of creating confusion and instead urged a stronger denunciation of M23's actions. On the same day, M23 deployed reinforcements around Goma, advancing closer to the city and consolidating its strategic positions.
The United Nations Special Representative in the DRC, Bintou Keita, briefed the Security Council on the severity of the situation. She noted that M23 had doubled the territory under its control since 2012. MONUSCO expressed its readiness to assist the DRC in filing a formal complaint with the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) over airspace violations involving M23, including incidents of GPS jamming at the Goma International Airport. Amid the unrest, thunderous artillery blasts echoed throughout Goma and nearby Nyiragongo Territory, halting daily activities as residents sheltered indoors. In the Mapendo neighborhood, opportunistic looters exploited the chaos to ransack businesses and deserted residences. Congolese authorities confirmed that the border crossing points with Rwanda, including the small and large barriers, operated normally until their routine closure at 3:00 p.m. Meanwhile, sporadic gunfire in Nyiragongo Territory continued to displace masses, as refugees from Rutshuru fled to Goma to escape the ongoing bombardments. Displacement camps in Nyiragongo Territory were targeted, with four bombs striking two locations, resulting in over ten fatalities, including women and children, and injuring numerous others. FARDC deployed tanks at strategic spots in Goma, including the Birere Roundabout, and rotated troops to strengthen the northern front. At Goma International Airport, Romanian military instructors coordinated with FARDC forces and Wazalendo units to bolster security amid rising tensions. M23 issued an ultimatum demanding the surrender of FARDC forces and imposing a 48-hour deadline, which led to some soldiers relinquishing their arms before the deadline expired. Goma's infrastructure faced severe challenges, including water and electricity outages, blocked roads, and persistent GPS interference, which threatened both civilian and humanitarian air operations. Some residents fled to Bukavu, using boats to cross the Lake Kivu.

#### Battle for Goma, military operations, and civil unrest in Kinshasa

Early on 27 January, M23 announced on X that they had captured Goma, although there were still reports of fighting throughout the city. Videos shared online showed M23 rebels patrolling the streets, and reports emerged of heavy shelling and a mass jailbreak from Goma's prison, which housed 3,000 inmates and was reportedly set ablaze. It was later reported that hundreds of female inmates were raped and burned alive during the Munzenze prison jailbreak. M23 and RDF fighters advanced into strategic neighborhoods such as Majengo, Mabanga, and areas surrounding Goma International Airport. RVA (Régie des Voies Aériennes) personnel remained trapped at the airport. Looting erupted in neighborhoods like Mapendo, Majengo, and the Office district. Patrick Muyaya urged residents to remain indoors, avoid acts of vandalism and theft, and resist Rwanda's alleged propaganda efforts. Civilians sought refuge in MONUSCO bases, while local authorities, including the police mayor of Goma, remained in the city. Cross-border tensions escalated as stray gunfire reportedly struck Gisenyi in Rwanda, leading to five casualties. Rwanda deployed tanks along the border. M23 forces solidified control over northern Goma, with their visible activity in major neighborhoods signaling their tightening grip. By mid-afternoon, Mount Goma—a strategic site hosting the provincial branch of Radio-Télévision nationale congolaise (RTNC)—fell under M23 control. A trainee doctor working in the maternity ward at the provincial hospital near Mount Goma was shot during crossfire. The World Food Programme (WFP) suspended its activities, cutting off essential food aid to 800,000 people. By 7:00 p.m. that evening, FARDC reclaimed control of the RTNC station. Vital Kamerhe, President of the National Assembly, announced that FARDC and Wazalendo forces "continue to hold certain positions in the city". On the same day, Agence France-Presse reported that the battle for Goma resulted in at least 17 fatalities and 367 injuries.
On 28 January, large-scale civil unrest erupted in Kinshasa during the morning hours, with crowds assembling outside key embassies—including those of Kenya, the US, Belgium, Rwanda, Netherlands, Uganda, and France—to demand more decisive international intervention and call for the immediate withdrawal of the M23-RDF coalition. Outside the U.S. embassy, demonstrators torched tires and criticized Western nations for their perceived indifference, advocating instead for intensified Russian involvement. Outside the Kenyan embassy, tensions escalated into property damage, looting, and break-ins, prompting the evacuation of two diplomatic personnel. Congolese security forces quickly intervened, setting up security cordons around the embassies. Congolese Foreign Minister Thérèse Kayikwamba Wagner expressed remorse, affirming that measures were underway to restore order and assess damages. Amidst the mounting unrest, SANDF responded to a video alleging its troops had surrendered to M23 rebels, clarifying that the white flag shown signified a temporary agreement with the M23 to recover casualties and provide medical assistance, rather than a surrender. South Africa confirmed that four additional SANDF soldiers had been killed, bringing the total number of South African peacekeepers killed since the conflict escalated to 13. Meanwhile, the ICRC reported an attack and looting of one of its warehouses in Goma and noted the worsening security situation in Sake, while its medical personnel at Ndosho Hospital in Goma faced an overwhelming influx of casualties, treating 198 patients despite the facility's original capacity of 147 beds. In response to the crisis, Germany suspended planned development aid negotiations with Rwanda, calling for an immediate withdrawal of M23-RDF forces from Congolese territory. That evening, Brigadier General Evariste Somo Kakule was elevated to the rank of Major General and appointed as the new military governor of North Kivu.

#### Offensive in Kalehe Territory, diplomatic tensions, advances toward Nyabibwe and humanitarian crisis

At dawn on 29 January, the M23-RDF coalition commenced an incursion into Kalehe Territory, launching coordinated offensives on Kiniezire and Mukwidja in Kalehe district capturing the towns. In Kiniezire, intense skirmishes erupted between the coalition and FARDC-Wazalendo forces, whereas Mukwidja was seized without resistance. Later that evening, prolonged firefights and bombings were reported in Turunga village within the Munigi groupement of the Bukumu Chiefdom, while movements of Wazalendo and other militant factions from Goma toward the chiefdom's Mudja groupement had been reported since the preceding day, accompanied by sporadic gunfire. During the same timeframe, over 300 men—allegedly "Romanian mercenaries" hired by the DRC to counter the rebel offensive—surrendered to M23 forces and, bereft of an alternative escape route, eventually handed themselves over to MUNUSCO peacekeeping units in Goma, who arranged for their repatriation via Kigali, Rwanda. President Cyril Ramaphosa paid tribute to the 13 SANDF soldiers killed in the conflict, explicitly blaming M23 and "Rwandan army militias" for the clashes involving FARDC and SAMIDRC. He also stressed that South Africa's mission in the DRC "is not a declaration of war against any country or state". In response, President Paul Kagame cautioned that "South Africa is not positioned to act as a mediator or peacemaker", warning against direct confrontation, stating that "If South Africa prefers confrontation, Rwanda will address the matter as such at any time". Meanwhile, President Félix Tshisekedi called for a national mobilization, urging citizens to rally behind FARDC against what he called "Rwanda's barbaric aggression".
The next day, on 30 January at around 5:00 a.m., the M23-RDF coalition, having advanced from Mukwidja, confronted FARDC troops in Kalangala village. The village, strategically positioned between Mukwidja and Nyabibwe, lies 6 km from Mukwidja and 56 km from the administrative town of Kalehe. That evening, the country's electoral commission, CENI, revealed that between 28 and 29 January, the coalition had transported election-related materials—including vehicles, motorcycles, and electoral kits—from Goma to Rwanda and had detained several officials from North Kivu's CENI Provincial Executive Secretariat. Concurrently, Agence France-Presse reported an alarming escalation in the death toll, reporting that "more than 100 people" had been killed, nearly a thousand wounded, and upwards of 500,000 civilians forcibly displaced since the onset of January. Meanwhile, La Croix affirmed that the M23-RDF coalition had commandeered Goma International Airport and had asserted near-total control over the city. The United Nations Humanitarian Coordinator in the DRC, Bruno Lemarquis, issued an urgent plea for the immediate reinstatement of airport operations, cautioning that its prolonged closure or restricted accessibility would severely hinder humanitarian relief efforts. Simultaneously, Deputy Prime Minister Guy Kabombo Muadiamvita declared that FARDC would not retreat or engage in talks near Kigali, stating, "we will stand and fight; there will be no other withdrawal".

#### FARDC counteroffensive and expansion into Kalehe Territory

On 31 January, at approximately 1:00 p.m., FARDC launched a counteroffensive, reclaiming Mukwidja, Sanzi, Muganzo, and adjacent localities. Clashes persisted in Ukana and Nyamigisha, while Lieutenant Jérémie Meya Gbe, spokesperson for FARDC's Sukola North-South Kivu military campaign, confirmed that clashes had spread beyond Nyabibwe. FARDC intensified efforts to thwart further M23 incursions toward Bukavu, the provincial capital of South Kivu. That evening, authorities in Bukavu inaugurated a recruitment initiative for volunteers willing to enlist in the battle against M23. Many youths expressed readiness to enlist with the Wazalendo militia to defend national sovereignty against what was described as "Rwandan aggression". UPDF announced its intent to "strengthen its defenses" in eastern DRC. Meanwhile, United Nations Secretary-General spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric provided an alarming update on the humanitarian crisis, disclosing that "more than 700 people" had been killed and 2,800 wounded within a mere five-day span of intensified conflict, with casualty figures based on assessments conducted collaboratively by the World Health Organization (WHO), its affiliated partners, and the Congolese government between 26 and 30 January.
On 1 February, Colonel Alexis Rugabisha, commander of FARDC's 12th Brigade, was killed in combat against M23-RDF forces on the Kanyanja axis near Kiniezire, after leading a counteroffensive that successfully expelled M23 militants from Nyabibwe toward the periphery of Minova, before ultimately succumbing to battlefield injuries. That same day, EAC convened a virtual summit, chaired by President William Ruto, calling for an "immediate and unconditional" ceasefire in eastern DRC and urging Kinshasa to engage in direct dialogue with all stakeholders, including M23. While President Paul Kagame participated in the summit, his Congolese counterpart, Félix Tshisekedi, abstained, with his office citing scheduling constraints. Muyaya dismissed the EAC's stance, asserting that the regional bloc was failing to acknowledge Rwanda's role in the conflict. Muyaya questioned why Rwanda had not been asked to engage in dialogue with FDLR if they truly sought a peaceful resolution. The following day, the Tanzanian People's Defence Force (TPDF) announced that two of its soldiers had been killed and four others wounded in clashes with the M23-RDF coalition between 24 and 28 January in Sake and Goma. On 3 February, M23 announced a unilateral ceasefire but warned that it would continue to defend its positions if attacked. Despite this announcement, reports indicated that M23 was reinforcing its positions with additional troops and equipment in Kalehe Territory. FARDC forces subsequently retook Mambasa, the capital of Bamate Chiefdom in Lubero Territory, forcing M23 to retreat to the village of Nduta near Alimbongo. Meanwhile, protests erupted in Butembo, where residents organized two marches—one covering 19 kilometers to Musienene and another spanning 45 kilometers to Lubero-center—in support of FARDC and in opposition to M23's presence in the region. Casualties mounted, with the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reporting a staggering toll of at least 900 fatalities and approximately 2,880 injuries. In response to the worsening security situation, Congolese ministers Jean-Pierre Bemba and Ève Bazaiba traveled to Kisangani, where they gathered several hundred young volunteers to enlist in FARDC's ranks. Meanwhile, President Cyril Ramaphosa called for the cessation of M23's territorial expansion and the immediate withdrawal of all foreign military forces from Congolese territory.
On 4 February, Deputy Administrator of Kalehe Territory, Archimède Karhebwa, reported that M23-RDF forces had advanced into Nyamasasa, engaging in further clashes with FARDC. While he stated that Bukavu remained "spared from immediate danger", rebel forces continued their progression, capturing Murambi and Kabugizi villages before moving into Luhefu and Kisale. In Mukwija, M23 reportedly forced Catholic priests to vacate a local convent before consolidating their presence in the area. Meanwhile, European Council President António Costa revealed that he had held discussions with both President Tshisekedi and President Kagame regarding the crisis. Costa expressed optimism that constructive talks would occur in Dar es Salaam under the auspices of the SADC and the EAC during the forthcoming International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR), scheduled to convene on 7 and 8 February. On 5 February, M23-RDF forces mounted an offensive against Nyabibwe, a strategic locality positioned along National Road No. 2 leading to Bukavu. Fighting erupted around 3:00 a.m., with the rebels breaching FARDC's defensive lines on the Nyanganwa-Chanjé axis. Within hours, M23 secured Nyabibwe, establishing a foothold in the area by midday and preparing to advance toward Kalehe-Ihusi. FARDC's military justice system issued an arrest warrant against Corneille Nangaa, accusing him of failing to prevent or suppress acts of torture committed under his authority. An official directive mandated Nangaa's immediate arrest and transfer to Congolese authorities for prosecution. That same day the head of the UN peacekeeping force based in Goma, Vivian van de Perre, said M23 may have had a sudden rethink after 2,000 extra reinforcements from Burundi arrived in Bukavu and a nearby airport was used by the Congolese air force. On 6 February, M23 rebels were halted in Bushushu village of Kalehe Territory after capturing Nyamukubi and Lushebere. On 7 February, the Fonds de Promotion de l'Industrie (FPI) reported that its facilities in Goma had been looted by M23-RDF forces. The perpetrators forced entry, absconding with a secure vault containing $7,500 and 4 million Congolese francs, alongside an FPI transport vehicle, with the misappropriated assets purportedly transported into Rwanda. Two vehicles belonging to the Caisse Nationale de Sécurité Sociale (CNSS) were commandeered. The FPI also noted that numerous executives of state-owned enterprises had gone into hiding due to mounting threats to their safety.

#### Calls for ceasefire; strategic decisions; and further advances

On 8 February, the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) denounced M23 and RDF, demanding an immediate cessation of hostilities, a full withdrawal from unlawfully occupied territories, and adherence to established humanitarian corridor agreements. That same day, M23 launched a bombing attack in Ndoluma, near the Lubero front line, killing 14 people, including civilians. A SADC-EAC summit convened, attended by regional leaders, where President Tshisekedi participated via videoconference from the African Union City in Kinshasa. The DRC delegation called for Rwanda's condemnation, the withdrawal of its troops, and the reopening of Goma International Airport to facilitate humanitarian aid. The summit mandated the EAC-SADC Chiefs of Defence Forces to convene within five days to provide technical guidance on enforcing a ceasefire, facilitating humanitarian assistance, securing Goma and its surroundings, reopening critical supply routes, and ensuring safe navigation on Lake Kivu. It also ordered a joint ministerial meeting to be held within 30 days to evaluate military measures, implement a coordination framework, and allocate financial resources for ongoing security interventions, and reaffirmed the merger of the Luanda and Nairobi peace efforts into a unified framework. President Ramaphosa endorsed the summit's resolutions, emphasizing that they would pave the way for the withdrawal of SAMIDRC troops.
On 10 February, Congolese Deputy Minister of National Defense and Veterans, Guy Kabombo Muadiamvita, visited Beni, where he led a security council meeting and addressed FARDC troops stationed on the front lines. That evening, M23 launched a bomb attack in Ndoluma, Lubero, killing a civilian and several FARDC soldiers. The following day, at approximately 1:00 a.m., unidentified armed men assassinated Chief Prosper Kimanuka Musakura and his three children in Kiziba II, a village in the Mudja groupement of Bukumu Chiefdom, which had been under M23-RDF control since late January. Later that afternoon, M23-RDF forces launched artillery strikes on FARDC positions in Kivisire, situated 15 kilometers from Mambasa. The same day, OCHA reported that since 29 January, about 30,000 people had fled villages along the Minova coast, relocating to Idjwi Territory, Kalehe center, Katana, Kavumu, Mudaka, and Bukavu, while others moved to Bunyakiri, west of Kalehe center, and Kalungu, to the north. OCHA also documented severe human rights abuses, including sexual violence and looting, particularly in Ihusi. In Goma, many displaced persons faced difficulties returning home due to restrictions on crossing Lake Kivu between Nzulo (North Kivu) and Bugulube (South Kivu). On 12 February, M23 recaptured Kalehe center and Ihusi after heavy clashes with FARDC, forcing government troops to withdraw to avert encirclement. The rebels advanced further toward Chibanda, Kasheke, and Kabamba, consolidating control over much of Kalehe Territory's coastal areas, from Minova to Kalehe center. The high plateau region, including Buloho Chiefdom, remained under FARDC control. Meanwhile, in Goma, three suspected armed bandits were burned alive by civilians following accusations of murder. On 13 February, M23 forces moved into Chofi, five kilometers from Kalehe center, and clashed with FARDC in Luzira and Kasheke in Kabare Territory. Simultaneously, fighting erupted in Kivisire, about ten kilometers from Mambasa. That same day, revolutionary Goma-based musician Delphin Katembo Vinywasiki, known as Delcat Idengo, was assassinated—allegedly targeted for opposing M23 after escaping Munzenze prison when Goma fell to the rebels in late January. The European Parliament urged Rwanda to withdraw its troops from the DRC and called for a suspension of the EU-Rwanda Memorandum of Understanding on Sustainable Raw Materials Value Chains, citing concerns over Rwanda's alleged mineral exploitation in M23-controlled areas, and recommended freezing budgetary support to Rwanda until it ceases its interference in the conflict. In a bid to de-escalate tensions, a delegation from the Conférence Épiscopale Nationale du Congo (CENCO) and Église du Christ au Congo (ECC) visited Kagame in Kigali as part of a broader initiative for regional peace. Prior to this meeting, the delegation held discussions in Kinshasa with Tshisekedi and other political figures, including Vital Kamerhe and Martin Fayulu. They also met with Nangaa in Goma the preceding day, advocating for an immediate ceasefire, the reopening of Goma's airport and port, and the establishment of a humanitarian corridor.

### Advances on Bukavu and surrounding regions

On 14 February, M23 occupied Kalehe and Kabare territories, seizing Kabamba and Katana. Fighting in Kabamba, a locality bordering Kalehe Territory, lasted through the night before the Congolese army withdrew to Katana around 9:00 a.m. M23 then advanced toward Kavumu, forcing FARDC to retreat to Kavumu Airport. As a result, many civilians fled to Bukavu, while others remained trapped in their homes as clashes continued. Human Rights Watch urged the African Union (AU) to take decisive action and support the United Nations Human Rights Council resolution on the DRC. By midday, M23 had successfully overrun Kavumu Airport, approximately 30 kilometers from Bukavu, despite continued resistance from FARDC. Civilian movement remained restricted, with some venturing onto the streets despite ongoing insecurity. Later that day, M23 reportedly entered Bukavu itself, where widespread looting occurred, particularly in the industrial zone, affecting Datco, Pharmakina, and WFP facilities. It was later reported that M23 executed a significant number of children during the occupation, though the precise number of casualties remained unverified. Amid the ongoing conflict, the Bukavu High Court sentenced 212 soldiers to death, convicting them of murder, attempted murder, sexual violence, and dereliction of duty in the face of the adversary during the M23 incursion. An additional 70 soldiers were acquitted and released. Meanwhile, in Munich, Tshisekedi, attending the Security Conference, excoriated Rwanda for what he called a "disguised aggression" against the DRC, asserting that "the M23 is a screen behind which the Rwandan army hides" and accused former President Joseph Kabila of being "the real sponsor" behind the rebellion, alleging that he had formed an alliance with Kigali to destabilize the nation. The EU expressed concern over the continued advance of the Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC)-M23 coalition in Bukavu, warning that violations of the DRC's territorial integrity would not go unanswered. ICRC reported increased casualties following M23's advance into Bukavu, with sporadic gunfire and looting recorded. Two fatalities and fourteen injured people were admitted to Hôpital Provincial Général de Référence de Bukavu (HPGRB).
On 15 February, sporadic gunfire and widespread looting persisted in Bukavu, though M23 did not advance beyond Kavumu Airport. That evening, M23 convened a meeting in Miti, approximately 27 kilometers from Bukavu. FARDC troops were sporadically sighted in certain neighborhoods, though their strategic positioning remained uncertain. French President Emmanuel Macron called for M23's "immediate withdrawal" from Bukavu and Kavumu Airport following discussions with Tshisekedi. France concurrently signaled its willingness to impose new multilateral sanctions on actors contributing to the armed conflict. Belgium followed suit, condemning the M23-RDF offensive and demanding the rebels' immediate withdrawal. That night, FARDC and Wazalendo forces regained near-total control of the city, forcing M23 to retreat in large numbers. On 16 February, a resurgent M23-AFC and RDF force re-entered Bukavu around 6:00 a.m., positioning themselves in key locations, including Independence Square (Place de l'Indépendance). M23's deputy coordinator, Bertrand Bisimwa, officially announced on X the group's entry into Bukavu. Demonstrations erupted across the city, including outside the Governorate, as residents cautiously emerged from their homes. Some attempted to attend places of worship despite widespread power outages affecting parts of the city. The Congolese government issued an advisory urging residents to remain indoors to avoid potential harm and assured citizens that efforts were underway to restore order and national sovereignty. The United Kingdom condemned the rebels' advance, calling for an immediate ceasefire, while international organizations—including the United Nations and various humanitarian agencies—called for urgent intervention to forestall a large-scale humanitarian crisis. The following day, Bukavu was eerily quiet, described as a "ghost town" with economic activities at a halt. Streets were strewn with debris as residents cautiously assessed the aftermath and sought to resume normal life. Meanwhile, Burundian authorities reported that approximately 10,000 Congolese refugees had entered the country, with some crossing via Gatumba and others navigating the Ruzizi River into Bubanza and Cibitoke provinces.

#### Humanitarian situation and renewed offensives in Lubero, Butembo and Kamanyola

By 18 February, the humanitarian situation worsened, as the Red Cross of the DRC reported 26 deaths and disclosed that between 14 and 17 February, the HPGRB had received 39 individuals wounded by firearm projectiles. The number of wounded swiftly escalated to 176. The OHCHR estimated that approximately 330,000 children had been forced out of school, with many at risk of never returning. The ferry service between Bukavu and Goma, which had been suspended by M23 at the end of January 2025, was reinstated at 6:00 a.m., which allowed the evacuation of diverse groups of civilians from the embattled city. Concurrently, at approximately 4:00 a.m., M23 and RDF forces initiated renewed offensives in Lubero, launching assaults on FARDC's entrenched positions along the strategic highlands of Vutsorovya, Alimbongo, Tchulo, and Mambasa, which flank National Road 2 en route to Butembo. Intense fighting persisted throughout the afternoon, with heavy and light artillery fire engulfing multiple villages, including Lubango, Kipese, and Kitsombiro—an important FARDC rear base. The skirmishes induced large-scale civilian displacement, with many residents fleeing toward Butembo via Lubero. Others who had initially sought refuge in Lubango and Kipese continued their journey toward Butembo. At the Lubero front, the clashes unfolded approximately 40 kilometers from Lubero, where the Ugandan army maintains a major base in Mulo as part of joint operations against the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF). In Masisi Territory, recurrent armed engagements between Wazalendo and M23 were reported, particularly in Mweso. Masisi and Mweso's health zones were among the hardest hit, with Masisi's General Reference Hospital coming under gunfire since 16 February, injuring a Ministry of Public Health employee.
By the later part of 18 February, M23-RDF forces had seized control of Ndoluma, a locality known for its livestock husbandry, after intense fighting led to the withdrawal of FARDC from Mutongo, Mambasa and Kanyambi. Ndoluma's telecommunications infrastructure was also damaged. Meanwhile, in the Kamanyola groupement, M23 took control following clashes with the Burundian National Defence Force (FDNB), while FARDC retreated to Uvira—a border city situated 75 kilometers away along the periphery of Lake Tanganyika, adjacent to Burundi. The Kamanyola's takeover led to a new wave of displacement, leaving only 20% of the local population behind. Belgium reassessed its diplomatic and developmental cooperation with Rwanda and initiated the suspension of bilateral financial assistance. In retaliation, Rwanda unilaterally abrogated the 2024–2029 bilateral aid agreement with Belgium, denouncing Brussels for allegedly conspiring with Kinshasa to hinder its access to international development financing. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom summoned the Rwandan High Commissioner following M23's territorial advances. Concurrently, UPDF contingents deployed under the auspices of Operation Shujaa—a joint military effort with FARDC against ADF in Beni and Irumu territories—arrived in Bunia and established its headquarters at the Rwampara military center, southeast of Bunia, within the Tséré groupement of Irumu Territory. This deployment became controversial due to inflammatory pronouncements by the Ugandan Chief of Defence Forces Muhoozi Kainerugaba, a known sympathizer of M23. Days before the deployment, Kainerugaba issued "threatening" messages via X, vowing that UPDF forces would advance into Bunia to combat CODECO in Djugu Territory and issued an ultimatum, warning that all armed factions operating within Bunia had 24 hours to surrender, failing which they would be considered enemies and subjected to UPDF military action.

#### Conflict in Uvira and adjacent areas

As M23 troops advanced toward Uvira, reports surfaced of armed altercations between FARDC and Wazalendo from 18 February into the early hours of 19 February, resulting in at least 17 fatalities. Wazalendo fighters blocked FARDC units from retreating to Kalemie with weapons and ammunition, demanding full disarmament and summarily executing those who defied the directive. Escaping soldiers turned on civilians, looting homes, stealing valuables, and causing destruction. Those who attempted to resist were met with lethal force. More than 500 detainees, including civilian and military prisoners, escaped from Mulunge Prison in Uvira. A widely circulated video on social media showed hundreds of FARDC soldiers boarding a boat at Kalundu Port in Uvira en route to Kalemie. Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) reported receiving a large number of injured people while simultaneously dealing with widespread looting, which hampered emergency medical response, including ambulance services. The violence led to the shutdown of banks, pharmacies, markets, and medical facilities. Civilians fled in all directions, with some escaping into Burundi, others seeking refuge in remote plateaus, and many heading toward Kalemie and Moba, while political and administrative officials, along with a large portion of the police and military personnel, fled to neighboring areas such as Burundi, Kalemie, and Tanzania. Meanwhile, AFC-M23, captured Sange in Bafuliiru Chiefdom, with rebel convoys advancing along National Road 5 (RN5), approximately 35 kilometers from Uvira. Residents, fearing potential violence, fled into the mountains. In Lubero, AFC-M23 secured Kitsombiro by approximately 9:00 a.m., following intense clashes that had earlier led to the fall of Ndoluma. FARDC regrouped at Katondi, 5 kilometers north of Kitsombiro, establishing defensive lines with the intent of launching a counteroffensive. Fighting between FARDC and M23 persisted between Katondi and Kitsombiro, with reports suggesting that attempted to displace M23 toward the outskirts. Despite these efforts, M23 retained its dominance over the battlefield as night approached. In Fizi Territory, Michel Rukunda, alias Makanika, a Twirwaneho militia leader aligned with M23 and AFC, was killed in Minembwe by a Congolese military drone. The Congolese government accused Rwanda of trying to overthrow Tshisekedi, while Kayikwamba called the UN to implement "robust sanctions" against Rwanda and the AFC-M23 rebel faction. Meanwhile, a Facebook post widely shared on social media reported clandestine M23 recruitment operations in Kisangani. In response, Major General Timothée Mujinga, commander of the 31st Military Region, dismissed these claims as "unfounded rumors" and "false information", affirming that the Congolese National Police (PNC) and FARDC remained fully operational to safeguard civilian security and property.
On 20 February, multiple FARDC battalions were observed moving through Uvira from the Ruzizi Plain toward Kalundu Port, ostensibly preparing to embark for Kalemie. Within Uvira, segments of the city remained under Wazalendo dominion, while most residents remained sequestered in their homes. In Lubero Territory, M23 rebels attempted an offensive but were pushed back by FARDC forces in Katondi, forcing them to retreat to the outskirts without being fully dislodged. Unable to engage on National Road No. 2, they took an alternate route through Kasima, arriving in Kipese by nightfall, which serves as a gateway to Butembo. In Walungu Territory, M23 rebels advanced toward the administrative center of Walungu from Cisheke and Kashanja. Simultaneously, in Masisi, an MSF employee was wounded when gunfire struck the organization's base. That same day, the United States sanctioned Rwandan General James Kabarebe and M23 spokesman Laurence Kanyuka. During the G20 Foreign Ministers' meeting in South Africa, British Foreign Secretary David Lammy condemned Rwanda's military operations in the DRC and warned of potential diplomatic repercussions if Rwanda continued to violate Congolese territorial integrity. On 21 February, looting incidents were reported in combat zones around Butembo, particularly along the Lubero front, where M23 and FARDC forces had engaged in successive clashes. Some retreating FARDC soldiers were accused of ransacking properties in villages they passed through. That day, Twirwaneho captured Minembwe and its airfield. The UNSC unanimously adopted Resolution 2773 demanding that M23 rebels immediately cease their offensive. The resolution, spearheaded by France's permanent representative to the UN, also called upon Rwandan forces to halt their support for the M23 insurgency and withdraw from Congolese territory.

#### Humanitarian impact and continued conflict

On 23 February 2025, Burundian President Évariste Ndayishimiye met with Tshisekedi at N'djili International Airport in Kinshasa for a private discussion. No official statement was issued following their exchange. On the same day, M23 and RDF forces killed over a dozen civilians in Goma. Despite launching a new offensive in Kasinjwe, behind Kipese toward Masereka, M23 forces were repelled by FARDC and Wazalendo units stationed in Masereka. The frontline remained unchanged, with M23 forces holding Kipese and Kitsombiro, while FARDC maintained control over routes leading to Lubero and Lukanga, key pathways to Butembo. On 24 February, at a high-level session of the United Nations Human Rights Council in Geneva, Suminwa accentuated the escalating death toll, stating that more than 7,000 people had been killed since January and that approximately 450,000 people were left homeless following the destruction of 90 displacement camps. The DRC also welcomed Resolution 2773, and on that day, the European Union suspended defense consultations with Rwanda and initiated a review of its memorandum of understanding on strategic raw materials, citing concerns over Rwanda's involvement in the conflict, although a second wave of sanctions was blocked by Luxembourg's veto. The UK also took measures, announcing a £14.6 million aid package for conflict-affected populations in eastern DRC while freezing bilateral aid to Rwanda, except for humanitarian aid. The UK further suspended military training assistance to the RDF and initiated a review of export licenses for military equipment intended for Rwanda. British officials urged the DRC to consider an inclusive dialogue involving the M23, a proposal firmly rejected by the Congolese government.
On 25 February, fighting in Uvira between FARDC and Wazalendo left 20 dead and 60 injured, while SANDF disclosed that military personnel wounded in late January skirmishes with M23 in Goma had been medically evacuated to South Africa for treatment, though the exact number was undisclosed. SANDF units under the SAMIRDC framework maintained their operational presence in Goma. Simultaneously, MSF reported that between 19 and 20 February, 34 out of 47 healthcare facilities across North Kivu had suffered varying degrees of operational incapacitation due to the incessant violence, with Goma's main hospitals overwhelmed by an influx of casualties. In Mwenga Territory, FARDC and Wazalendo battled Twirwaneho forces, now under the command of Charles Sematama, whose alliance with Burundian Tutsi RED-Tabara rebels enabled them to seize Mikenge. In Sange, FARDC and Wazalendo clashed over Mugenyi II, resulting in seven deaths as FARDC attempted to reoccupy a former MONUSCO base after withdrawing to Uvira amid the M23 advance. In Rutshuru Territory, three civilians were killed in Kibirizi, Bwito Chiefdom, by M23 and AFC forces. On 26 February, reports emerged of forced recruitment efforts by AFC-M23 forces targeting finalist and pre-finalist students in Kamanyola, Goma, and Nyiragongo Territory. Fearing conscription, many parents removed their children from schools, while others attempted to flee the affected areas. Within Nyiragongo Territory, on the periphery of Goma, at least fifteen people died in an inferno that erupted during an M23-RDF operation near Don Bosco Ngangi, while at least five other civilians were shot in their homes during the incursion. In Uvira, FARDC's Operation Sukola 2 in South Kivu was launched to track down deserters and soldiers accused of harassment and misconduct amid the ongoing conflict. Meanwhile, in Kalehe Territory, two village chiefs were assassinated during the night of 25–26 February: Joseph Birikunguba Bitamenyeka Kanyere, the chief of Batayo village, was murdered in Mulunguzi—an area under Wazalendo control—while Bahati Cirhahola Jackson, the chief of the sub-village of Nyamutwe in Kasheke, was executed in an M23-controlled zone.
On 27 February, multiple explosions occurred during an M23-AFC meeting at Place de l'Indépendance in Bukavu as Nangaa was concluding a high-profile session, resulting in at least 13 fatalities and 70 injuries. M23's official casualty figures reported 11 deaths and 65 injuries. Tshisekedi denounced the attack, labeling it a "heinous terrorist act" and attributing culpability to "a foreign army illegally present on Congolese soil", albeit without explicitly identifying Rwanda or the M23-AFC alliance. Meanwhile, M23 denied responsibility for the attack and accused the Congolese government of orchestrating the attack. Reports also emerged from the Groupe de Travail Thématique Mines et Hydrocarbures (GTTMH) of South Kivu's civil society, alleging that M23-AFC forces looted the CJX Minerals processing entity on the night of 19–20 February. The group reported that M23-AFC troops abducted security personnel, disabled surveillance cameras, and facilitated the transfer of mineral resources to Rwanda for sale to companies such as Traxys and Sunrise. The Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned the Rwandan ambassador to demand clarification on Rwanda's involvement in the conflict, and UN peacekeeping officials visited Kinshasa to discuss the implementation of Resolution 2773. On 28 February, Luxembourg's Foreign Minister Xavier Bettel explained his veto of a second wave of EU sanctions, emphasizing that a sustainable political solution, mediated by local and regional actors, was essential for resolving the crisis. Bettel further stated that should the joint SADC-EAC ministerial meeting scheduled for Harare yield no progress, the EU would contemplate additional sanctions targeting Rwanda. On 1 March, an alliance comprising Twirwaneho, RED-Tabara, and the Android coalition, allied with M23, attacked Wazalendo positions in Bilalombili village near Mikenge, where displaced populations from Mikenge and surrounding areas had sought refuge. Several houses were burned, though the extent of the damage was not immediately clear. In Walungu Territory, M23 advanced to Bwahungu and Muzinzi after capturing Walungu center and Kashanja, following battles against FARDC and Wazalendo forces. On the same day, M23-AFC claimed to have handed over a group of FDLR fighters to the RDF at the Grande Barrière border post in Rubavu District. FARDC's spokesperson Major General Sylvain Ekenge dismissed this claim, describing it as a fabricated plot aimed at discrediting the FARDC and SADC forces. Ekenge argued that the detainees had been presented by Rwandan media on 22 January 2025, accusing Rwanda of faking their capture to justify military action in eastern DRC and further stating that these FDLR detainees had been held at Gitarama central prison in Rwanda and dressed in new FARDC military uniforms from the depot to mislead the public into believing they had been captured in Goma.

#### Diplomatic developments and clashes

On 3 March, Canada suspended export permits, government-to-government business pursuits, private-sector support, and participation in international events hosted by Rwanda or proposed by Kigali. It also pledged 15 million Canadian dollars in humanitarian aid for crisis-affected populations in the DRC. That same day, the OHCHR reported that M23 rebels had abducted at least 130 sick and wounded people from CBCA Ndosho Hospital and Heal Africa Hospital in Goma—116 from CBCA and an additional 15 from Heal Africa. Germany similarly suspended new development aid to Rwanda and initiated a reassessment of its extant financial commitments. On 5 March, heavy fighting in Mikenge saw Wazalendo forces, led by Kakobanya Nakalambi, reclaim the village from M23-allied militias Twirwaneho, RED-Tabara, and Android, forcing their retreat to Kalinga, six kilometers away in Mwenga Territory. That same day, during a public speech in Kikwit, Congolese Deputy Prime Minister of Transport and Communication Channels, Jean-Pierre Bemba, called on Congolese youth to join FARDC in defending the country "against its aggressors" and accused Joseph Kabila of backing M23, the AFC, and the Mobondo militia, which was engaged in conflicts in western DRC. Meanwhile, the scheduled SADC-EAC ministerial meeting in Harare was postponed indefinitely.
On the night of 7 March, after five days of occupation, M23 fighters withdrew from Kasugho, located at the foot of the Tayna Gorilla Reserve, 45 kilometers west of Lubero, and moved toward Bunyatenge, a gold-rich area six hours away on foot. The withdrawal occurred without confrontation. The civil society reported that the UPDF, which had been stationed on the Lubero-Kasugho route, took over Kasugho, while local officials claimed it was now under Wazalendo control. Some believe M23's retreat was to accommodate the Ugandan army, as General Kainerugaba had posted on X that M23 should pull back 20 kilometers south from Lubero (Kitsombiro, Kipese, Kasugho) to open up Ugandan-influenced zones. However, their movement toward Bunyatenge complicates the situation, as the town's strategic gold reserves and proximity to Mbwavinywa—home to Forces Patriotiques Populaires-Armee du People (FPP-AP) headquarters led by Kasereka Kasiyano, known as General Kabidon, a key Wazalendo leader and strong Kinshasa ally. That same day, in Mbwavinywa, a village near Bunyatenge in southern Lubero Territory, General Kabidon declared that the Front Commun de la Résistance (FCR)—a coalition of the FPP-AP and Mapenzi's Nduma Défense du Congo-Rénové (NDC-R)—had formally aligned with M23 and AFC units. FARDC's spokesperson for the northern front, Colonel Mak Hazukay, condemned Kabidon's defection, characterizing it as a betrayal motivated by mining interests. On 8 March, Justice Minister Constant Mutamba announced a $9 million bounty for wanted individuals, including $5 million for Nangaa, Bertrand Bisimwa, and Makenga. With the occupation of Goma by M23 rebels and the mass escape of prisoners from the central prison of Munzenze, the security situation continued to degenerate precipitously. Between 8–9 March, Goma experienced a surge in violence that left three dead. The first incident occurred in Katindo, where M23 rebels attacked a group playing cards, fatally shooting a young man as he attempted to flee. In Majengo, Jackson Kilimandjaro Mutondwe, son of former deputy Valérien Nzanzu Kenda Kenda, was killed at home by unknown assailants. The third victim was found lifeless on Mutakato Avenue in Mabanga Sud. According to Actualite.cd, at least 53 violent deaths were recorded in Goma and Nyiragongo throughout February 2025. On 9 March, Nyabiondo, long an APCLS stronghold under Janvier Karairi, fell to M23 and AFC rebels after intense two-day clashes with FARDC and Wazalendo. APCLS reportedly withdrew before the takeover. The fighting displaced locals to villages in Masisi Territory, with many fleeing to Kashebere in the Luberike groupement in Walikale Territory, 12 kilometers from Nyabiondo. M23, having seized key areas in Masisi Territory, advanced toward resource-rich Walikale, coveted for its minerals. On 10 March, FARDC and Wazalendo elements of the Union des Patriotes Congolais (UPC) engaged M23 forces in Kaziba Chiefdom, the second in Walungu Territory affected after Ngweshe Chiefdom. M23 advanced from Nyangezi through the Nyanfunzu escarpments to Mushenyi, a strategic gateway to Kaziba Chiefdom, where it clashed with FARDC and Wazalendo units in Cibanda groupement. Later that night, M23 and AFC forces seized the chiefdom's capital Lwanguku, targeting the royal court, where gunfire was reported to persist. Reports suggested that the rebels had entered the town center but had not secured full dominance over the entire chiefdom.
Amid escalating violence, Tshisekedi met with Lourenço in Luanda on 11 March to discuss the deteriorating security situation. Angola offered to mediate talks between the Congolese government and M23; however, Kinshasa insisted that any discussions be conducted within the framework of UNSC Resolution 2773, which aligns with the Luanda and Nairobi peace processes, as well as the resolutions from the Dar es Salaam summit. The Congolese government reiterated its stance that M23's involvement should be addressed within this framework. That same day, HRW reported that since M23 and AFC captured Goma in January, they had systematically threatened, detained, and attacked journalists, critics, and activists. HRW further noted that M23 fighters in North and South Kivu had issued death threats through audio recordings of phone calls, messages, and speeches, targeting independent media and civil society organizations. Over 200 activists had sought protection as a result, as the rebels also employed intimidation tactics to restrict the population's access to information and suppress dissent, making it increasingly difficult for journalists to report on the situation in Goma. On 12 March, M23 and AFC forces arrived in Idjwi Territory, a historically demilitarized zone, disembarking from maritime vessels without encountering resistance and subsequently convening a meeting. With the annexation of Idjwi, M23 and AFC consolidated their control over seven of South Kivu's eight territories—Kabare, Walungu, Uvira, Fizi, Mwenga, and now Idjwi—leaving only Shabunda Territory unaffected at this juncture. On the same day, France suspended new development aid projects in Rwanda and pledged to improve humanitarian assistance for approximately seven million displaced individuals affected by the conflict. Concurrently, following the capture of Kaziba Chiefdom, M23 and AFC forces advanced toward Rurambo and Kigarama in Bafuliiru Chiefdom, where they met resistance from Ruma Hondwa's Wazalendo faction. The fighting in Rurambo and Kigarama persisted into 13 March, but Hondwa's faction ultimately withdrew after Fuliiru rebel leader Rushaba and his Wazalendo faction defected to M23 and AFC. Shortly thereafter, Rushaba's Wazalendo unit from Masango welcomed M23 and AFC fighters in Kashama, ceding several strategic locations to facilitate their movement into the area. Rushaba's defection was seen as a blow to the Task Force—a coalition of Congolese and Burundian forces allied with Wazalendo fighters. Having previously fought alongside Nyamusaraba and Burundian forces within the Task Force, Rushaba's shift in loyalty triggered new clashes in Kashama before he joined M23 and AFC in battling the Task Force in Kigarama. Concurrently, the SADC declared the cessation of its military intervention, announcing a phased withdrawal of its SAMIDRC troops, and its alignment with the SADC-EAC summit's resolutions on merging the Luanda and Nairobi peace processes while welcoming UNSC Resolution 2773. In Goma, M23 and AFC rebels raided CBCA Ndosho hospital at night, shooting a man and causing widespread panic.
On 14 March, due to rising tensions in Walikale, Alphamin Bisie Mining (ABM), the DRC's largest tin producer, located 180 km northwest of Goma, 60 km from Walikale, and 32 km from the Walikale-Kisangani road, ceased its operations. That same day, the EU Council announced delayed sanctions against nine individuals linked to the ongoing violence but withheld their names, with EU foreign ministers scheduled to approve the sanctions on 17 March in Brussels. M23 forces in Cirunga, Kabare Territory's capital, killed a suspected Wazalendo combatant who attempted to push them out near the central prison on 14 March afternoon. Meanwhile, G7 foreign ministers from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the US, along with the EU's High Representative, met in Quebec from 12–14 March, condemning the M23 offensive and the subsequent violence, displacement, and human rights abuses, while calling for support for EAC and SADC-led mediation, accountability for all armed groups' abuses, and a peaceful, inclusive resolution. On 15 March, Lourenço urged a ceasefire from midnight on 16 March, including ending attacks on civilians and territorial advances, to foster peace talks in Luanda between the Congolese government and M23. However, instead of observing the ceasefire, M23 and AFC occupied the Ntea village in the Ihana groupement, Walikale Territory. Simultaneously, Wazalendo forces took control of Kaziba Chiefdom and the localities of Kigarama and Rurambo in the Uvira highlands. M23 and AFC elements advancing from Kaziba Chiefdom reached as far as Marungu and Kahololo, areas that serve as strongholds for the Twirwaheno, Android, and RED-Tabara coalition, while also housing IDP camps that were placed under the protection of the Twirweneho following the departure of MONUSCO. On 16 March, M23 and AFC forces captured Kibua, situated over 80 km from Walikale, defying the ceasefire call.
The following day, 17 March, the two factions expanded their territorial control by seizing Mpofi in the Utunda groupement, 52 km from Walikale. Armed clashes continued in Mutakato village within the Banabangi groupement, leading to the mass displacement of Walikale's population. Displaced persons traveled along the RN3 road towards Kisangani, with villages along the Kisangani axis, including Losso, Mungele, Tingi Tingi, Lubutu, Mubi, Ndjingala, Lobu, and Makana, receiving thousands of refugees from Walikale. That day, Belgium announced reciprocal diplomatic measures after Rwanda decided to sever diplomatic ties and expel Belgian diplomats within 48 hours. Rwanda justified the move by accusing Belgium of neocolonial ambitions, a violent historical role, and hostility toward Kigali in the DRC conflict while also accusing it of sheltering groups promoting genocidal ideology. Belgian Foreign Minister Maxime Prévôt called the decision "disproportionate" and regretted that "when we disagree with Rwanda, it prefers not to engage in dialogue". In response, Belgium summoned Rwanda's chargé d'affaires, declared Rwandan diplomats persona non grata, and suspended government cooperation agreements. Meanwhile, as previously scheduled, the EU imposed targeted sanctions on Rwandan officials and M23 leaders. Sanctioned RDF officers include Ruki Karusisi, commander of special forces in eastern DRC; Eugène Nkubito, 3rd Division commander in North Kivu since 2022; and Pascal Muhizi, 2nd Division commander in eastern DRC since 2023. Among M23 rebels, the EU sanctioned leader Bisimwa, already under UN sanctions, along with recruitment head Désiré Rukomera, Colonel John Imani Nzenze, deputy finance chief Jean-Bosco Nzabonimpa Mupenzi, and finance leader-turned-North Kivu governor Jean Bahati Musanga, while also listing Francis Kamanzi, CEO of Rwanda Mines, Petroleum and Gas Board, for exploiting conflict minerals and Gasabo Gold Refinery for illegally importing gold from M23-controlled areas. In response, AFC and M23 canceled their participation in the Angolan-mediated Luanda talks, condemning the sanctions as obstacles to dialogue and accusing international institutions of "sabotaging" peace efforts while claiming the measures strengthened Tshisekedi's alleged "warmongering" stance.

## Analysis
### Rwandan role

As a result of the M23 advances in 2022, Bintou Keita, top UN official for the DRC, described the group as having "conducted itself as a conventional army, rather than an armed group," and warned that the group's capabilities exceeded that of MONUSCO. According to United Nations Security Council researchers, the presence of individuals in Rwandan uniforms among the rebels has been proven through photos and drone footage, partially explaining the M23 forces' increased professionalism. Congolese researcher Josaphat Musamba concurred, arguing that it was "clear that there is support" behind M23's resurgence. Congo Research Group director Jason Stearns stated that, though there was "no certainty" about Rwanda backing the M23 offensive, the rebels' firepower and various frontline reports made Rwandan involvement "very likely". Regardless of Rwanda's possible role in the offensive, analysts cautioned that M23 had never been just a Rwandan pawn, and always maintained its own agenda.
In early August 2022, a report for the UN by independent researchers provided further evidence about Rwandan support for M23, including photos and videos showcasing Rwandan soldiers moving into Congolese territory and M23 troops armed with Rwandan weaponry. In October, a Rwandan soldier surrendered to MONUSCO at Kiwanja; the Congolese government regarded this as a further proof of Rwandan support for the rebel offensive. By January 2023, the United States, several European countries, and UN experts believed that Rwanda was supporting M23.
By 2025 it was estimated that 4000 to 7000 RDF soldiers were fighting in Congo and had suffered significant casualties. Satellite images also showed significant expansion in the Kanombe military cemetery in Kigali, where at least 600 graves have been dug since the beginning of the offensive.

#### Economic and commercial interests

Critics argue that both M23 and Rwanda have opportunistically exploited the presence of the FDLR as a pretext for broader political and economic ambitions in eastern DRC, particularly since the FDLR no longer poses a substantial military threat to Rwanda. A December 2023 UNSC-commissioned report revealed that since October 2023, RDF soldiers had been deployed in Nyiragongo, Rutshuru, and Masisi territories, with RDF and M23 receiving support from 250 e-x FDLR combatants under Rwanda's Defence Intelligence Directorate. There is substantial evidence suggesting that rebel factions backed by Rwanda and Uganda—including M23—control strategic yet informal supply chains that transport valuable minerals from the Kivu region to both countries. The corridor from Bunagana on the Ugandan border, through Kanyabayonga to Goma on the Rwandan border, encompasses a lucrative mining belt containing some of the world's largest deposits of coltan, a mineral essential for the production of electronic devices. The DRC is also the world's largest producer of cobalt, a key component in electric vehicle batteries, which are in high demand globally.
In 2021, U.S. data indicated that Rwanda accounted for 15% of the world's tantalum supply, a derivative of coltan ore, despite producing only modest amounts domestically. In March 2023, Congolese Finance Minister Nicolas Kazadi reported that the country was losing approximately $1 billion annually due to minerals being illicitly smuggled into Rwanda. He noted that Rwanda's 2022 mineral exports—including gold, tin, tantalum, and tungsten—were valued at nearly $1 billion, despite the country having limited known reserves. The U.S. also purchased 36% of its tantalum imports from Rwanda—more than from any other country—while only 7% came from the DRC, a major tantalum producer. Rwanda has utilized an international network of elites to facilitate the smuggling, sale, and monetization of DRC minerals through militarized trade routes. Kigali has received institutional backing to commercialize these minerals via an industry-led compliance framework and companies such as AVX Corporation, KEMET Corporation, and Global Advanced Metals, which manufacture electronic components. These firms have been accused of knowingly purchasing minerals of illicit origin. Due diligence teams from major technology companies—including Apple, Intel, Sony, Motorola, and Lockheed Martin—have also been informed that minerals sourced from Rwanda were likely smuggled from the DRC, often under conditions of violent exploitation. Despite this, these minerals continue to be integrated into global supply chains for products ranging from laptops to aircraft. Rwanda, in turn, has cultivated an image as a stable and efficient trading hub within the mineral sector.
In a separate but related case, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled in February 2022 that Uganda must pay $325 million to the DRC in reparations for its role in conflicts between 1998 and 2003, which included the deaths of thousands of civilians in Ituri Province, the funding of rebel groups, and the illicit extraction of natural resources such as gold, diamonds, and timber. Since then, gold has since become Uganda's leading export, with much of it reportedly originating from DRC mines. Similarly, while the DRC accounted for 40% of the world's coltan output in 2019, substantial amounts are reportedly funneled illicitly into Rwanda, Uganda, and Burundi. UN investigations have found that while most of the DRC's contraband coltan is routed through Rwanda, a notable portion is also transported via Bunagana and Rutshuru into Uganda and through Uvira into Burundi.

#### European Union agreements and controversy

In October 2023, the European Union (EU) signed a partnership with the DRC and Zambia to develop raw material supply chains, including infrastructure investment and sustainable resource extraction. The EU stated that securing a stable supply of critical minerals was essential for meeting its green energy and climate goals. In February 2024, the EU announced a similar agreement with Rwanda, aiming to "nurture sustainable and resilient value chains for critical raw materials". The EU's investments in Rwanda's mineral sector between 2021 and 2024 amounted to $260 million. The agreement recognized Rwanda as a key player in global tantalum production, as well as a producer of tin, tungsten, gold, niobium, and potentially lithium and rare earth elements. The EU further praised Rwanda's regulatory environment, stating that it could serve as a hub for mineral processing and value addition. The announcement was met with immediate criticism from the Congolese government and civil society organizations. President Félix Tshisekedi described the deal as a "provocation of very, very bad taste", arguing that it would legitimize mineral smuggling and exploitation. He asserted that the agreement effectively allowed Rwanda to profit from "the blood of our compatriots". DRC Foreign Minister Christophe Lutundula accused the EU of complicity in the "looting and aggression" against the DRC, citing other EU-Rwanda agreements on security and military cooperation. Notably, Rwandan President Paul Kagame himself acknowledged that Rwanda serves as a transit point for smuggled Congolese minerals. He stated that minerals from the DRC pass through Rwanda to destinations including Brussels, Tel Aviv, Russia, and Dubai.

#### Geopolitical and economic rivalry between Rwanda and Uganda

In November 2020, the Ugandan construction company Dott Services, a co-financier and developer of road networks linking Uganda and the DRC, entered a joint venture with the Congolese state-owned mining company Société Aurifère du Kivu et du Maniema (Sakima). This agreement granted Dott Services access to strategic mining sites in Maniema Province, an area rich in tin, tantalum, gold, and tungsten. Under the terms of the deal, Dott Services secured a 70% ownership stake, with Sakima retaining 30%. Additionally, Dott Services is committed to establishing a mineral processing facility alongside its infrastructure projects. The company is widely believed to have close ties to Uganda's political elite.
Rwanda has also sought to assert its influence in the region's mining sector. In June 2021, Kagame and Tshisekedi signed an agreement allowing Dither Ltd—a company reportedly linked to the Rwandan military—to refine gold mined by Sakima. The stated objective of the agreement was to curb revenue streams for armed groups operating in the mining sector. However, the DRC suspended the deal in June 2022, citing Rwanda's alleged support for the resurgent M23 rebellion. Ugandan officials have argued that Rwanda's increasing support for M23 was motivated, at least in part, by the disruption of its economic ventures in the DRC. During the M23 offensive in Bunagana on 23 March 2022, Ugandan soldiers intervened to safeguard Dott Services personnel and assets. The incident heightened tensions between Uganda and Rwanda, which accused the other of leveraging M23 for economic gain. In Kampala, officials alleged that Rwandan-backed M23 elements orchestrated the attack to disrupt Uganda's operations in the DRC. Conversely, in Kigali, officials accused Uganda of using M23 affiliates to seize the border town, a crucial transit hub for Dott Services.

### Motives of M23

Stearns argued that the new M23 offensive was possibly aimed at enforcing the group's inclusion in a disarmament, demobilisation, and reintegration (DDR) programme. Previous attempts of M23 at becoming part of this process, including after the 2013 agreement, failed due to considerable opposition by the Congolese public. One of the issues hampering any attempts to achieve M23's complete demobilisation is the fact that several members of the rebel group are known to have committed various war crimes over several years of involvement in insurgencies, even before M23 itself had emerged. This makes their integration into the Congolese security forces or rewarding them with amnesties difficult to justify in the DR Congo.