# 2023 Extremaduran regional election

The 2023 Extremaduran regional election was held on Sunday, 28 May 2023, to elect the 11th Assembly of the autonomous community of Extremadura. All 65 seats in the Assembly were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in eleven other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.
The Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), which had ruled Extremadura since 2015—and previously from 1982 to 2011—lost its absolute majority, tying with the opposition People's Party (PP) under María Guardiola with 28 seats each. The entry of the far-right Vox party with 5 seats, coupled with the left-wing United for Extremadura (Podemos–IU–AV) alliance remaining stagnant at 4 seats, meant that the right-wing parties commanded a majority in the Assembly, which initially prompted President Guillermo Fernández Vara to concede on election night. However, following Guardiola's initial rejection to form a coalition government with Vox, Vara reneged on his renounce and pledged to attempt to form a government of his own by virtue of leading the most-voted party.
Following several weeks of public fighting—which led to PSOE and Podemos–IU–AV retaining control of the Assembly's bureau and saw Guardiola herself proclaim that she could not allow into her government "those who deny gender-based violence, who use bold strokes, dehumanize immigrants and display a banner on which they throw the LGTBI flag into a trash can", in reference to Vox—Guardiola U-turned and accepted to include Vox in her cabinet in exchange for the latter to elect her as new regional president, thus forming the second PP-led government in the history of the region. This political episode was said as having had an impact in the outcome of the 2023 Spanish general election held on 23 July, as it evidenced the PP's willingness to allow the far-right into government despite initial pledges to the contrary.

## Overview
### Electoral system

The Assembly of Extremadura was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Extremadura, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Extremaduran Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president. Voting for the Assembly was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Extremadura and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2022 abolished the "begged" or expat vote system (Spanish: Voto rogado), under which Spaniards abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote. The expat vote system was attributed responsibility for a major decrease in the turnout of Spaniards abroad during the years it had been in force.
The 65 members of the Assembly of Extremadura were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of five percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Alternatively, parties failing to reach the threshold in one of the constituencies were also entitled to enter the seat distribution as long as they ran candidates in both districts and reached five percent regionally. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Badajoz and Cáceres, with each being allocated an initial minimum of 20 seats and the remaining 25 being distributed in proportion to their populations.
As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Assembly constituency was entitled the following seats:
| Seats | Constituencies |
| 36 | Badajoz |
| 29 | Cáceres |

### Election date

The term of the Assembly of Extremadura expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Journal of Extremadura (DOE), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 26 May 2019, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 26 May 2023. The election decree was required to be published in the DOE no later than 2 May 2023, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Assembly on Sunday, 25 June 2023.
The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Assembly of Extremadura and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Assembly was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.
The election to the Assembly of Extremadura was officially triggered on 4 April 2023 after the publication of the election decree in the Official Journal of Extremadura (DOE), setting the election date for 28 May.

## Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Parliament at the time of dissolution.
Parliamentary composition in April 2023 :
| Groups | Groups | Parties | Parties | Legislators | Legislators |
| Groups | Groups | Parties | Parties | Seats | Total |
| | Socialist Parliamentary Group | | PSOE | 34 | 34 |
| | People's Parliamentary Group | | PP | 20 | 20 |
| | Citizens–Party of the Citizenry Parliamentary Group | | CS | 7 | 7 |
| | United for Extremadura Parliamentary Group | | Podemos | 2 | 4 |
| | United for Extremadura Parliamentary Group | | IU | 1 | 4 |
| | United for Extremadura Parliamentary Group | | eX | 1 | 4 |

## Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least two percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.
Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:
| Candidacy | Candidacy | Parties and alliances | Candidate | Candidate | Ideology | Previous result | Previous result | Gov. | Ref. |
| Candidacy | Candidacy | Parties and alliances | Candidate | Candidate | Ideology | Votes (%) | Seats | Gov. | Ref. |
| | PSOE | List Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) | | Guillermo Fernández Vara | Social democracy | 46.77% | 34 | Y | |
| | PP | List People's Party (PP) | | María Guardiola | Conservatism Christian democracy | 27.48% | 20 | N | [16] [17] |
| | CS | List Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (CS) | | Fernando Baselga | Liberalism | 11.11% | 7 | N | [18] [19] |
| | Podemos– IU–AV | List We Can (Podemos) United Left (IU) – Communist Party of Extremadura (PCEx) – The Dawn. Marxist Organization OM (La Aurora (om)) – Republican Left (IR) Green Alliance (AV) | | Irene de Miguel | Left-wing populism Direct democracy Democratic socialism | 7.20% | 4 | N | |
| | Vox | List Vox (Vox) | | Ángel Pelayo | Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism | 4.71% | 0 | N | |

## Campaign
### Election debates

The only campaign debate was held on May 17 and had the participation of candidates from ten parties, an unusually high number. The PSOE candidate, and current president, Guillermo Fernández Vara, would have refused to participate in a debate that had not include all parties. The People's Party accused him of wanting to "hide" in such a large crowd. The chosen date was also criticized for coinciding with the semifinal of the UEFA Champions League, in which Real Madrid participated, which could reduce the audience for the debate.
2023 Extremaduran regional election debates :
| Date | Organisers | Moderator(s) | P Present | P Present | P Present | P Present | P Present | P Present | P Present | P Present | P Present | P Present | P Present | P Present |
| Date | Organisers | Moderator(s) | PSOE | PP | CS | UP | Vox | L | PUM+J | JUEx | PEx | UED | Audience | Ref. |
| 17 May | Canal Extremadura | Manu Pérez | P F. Vara | P Guardiola | P Baselga | P de Miguel | P Pelayo | P Martín | P Blanco | P Granero | P González | P Caro | 8.6% (23,000) | [24] [25] |

## Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

### Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 33 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Extremadura.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | | | | | | | | L | Lead |
| 2023 regional election | 28 May 2023 | — | 70.4 | 39.9 28 | 38.8 28 | 0.9 0 | 6.0 4 | 8.1 5 | – | 2.5 0 | 0.8 0 | 1.1 |
| NC Report/La Razón | 22 May 2023 | ? | ? | 43.2 30/31 | 35.7 26/27 | – | 6.1 4 | 7.1 4 | – | 4.4 0/1 | – | 7.5 |
| KeyData/Público | 17 May 2023 | ? | 71.2 | 41.8 30 | 36.3 26 | 1.6 0 | 6.7 4 | 8.5 5 | – | – | – | 5.5 |
| ElectoPanel/El Plural | 11–17 May 2023 | 600 | ? | 43.3 31 | 35.7 25 | 1.8 0 | 6.8 4 | 9.4 5 | – | 2.2 0 | – | 7.6 |
| Data10/OKDiario | 12–15 May 2023 | 1,500 | ? | 42.2 29 | 37.8 27 | 1.7 0 | 6.3 4 | 8.8 5 | – | – | – | 4.4 |
| SocioMétrica/El Español | 8–14 May 2023 | ? | ? | 41.8 29/30 | 37.2 26/27 | 2.3 0 | 6.4 3/4 | 8.8 5/6 | – | – | – | 4.6 |
| ElectoPanel/El Plural | 4–10 May 2023 | 600 | ? | 43.0 31 | 35.9 25 | 1.8 0 | 6.8 4 | 9.4 5 | – | 2.2 0 | – | 7.1 |
| GAD3/ABC | 28 Apr–3 May 2023 | 1,004 | ? | 40.3 29/30 | 37.4 27/28 | 1.6 0 | 6.8 3/4 | 8.6 4/5 | – | – | – | 2.9 |
| ElectoPanel/El Plural | 26 Apr–3 May 2023 | 600 | ? | 42.8 31 | 36.0 25 | 1.8 0 | 6.9 4 | 9.4 5 | – | 2.2 0 | – | 6.8 |
| Ágora Integral/El Periódico | 27 Apr–2 May 2023 | 1,200 | ? | 42.8 29/31 | 36.5 25/27 | 0.5 0 | 6.2 4 | 7.3 5 | – | 4.8 0/1 | – | 6.3 |
| CIS | 10–26 Apr 2023 | 743 | ? | 40.6 28/29 | 35.9 24/26 | 1.5 0 | 10.3 4/8 | 8.6 5/6 | – | – | – | 4.7 |
| ElectoPanel/El Plural | 19–25 Apr 2023 | 600 | ? | 42.8 30 | 35.7 25 | 1.9 0 | 6.7 4 | 9.4 6 | – | 2.4 0 | – | 7.1 |
| Simple Lógica/elDiario.es | 12–19 Apr 2023 | 600 | ? | 39.4 28/29 | 34.2 24/25 | 2.5 0 | 7.4 5/6 | 9.0 6/7 | – | 3.3 0 | 2.2 0/1 | 5.2 |
| ElectoPanel/El Plural | 12–18 Apr 2023 | 600 | ? | 42.9 30 | 35.3 25 | 2.1 0 | 6.4 4 | 9.8 6 | – | 2.4 0 | – | 7.6 |
| Data10/OKDiario | 11–14 Apr 2023 | 1,500 | ? | 42.8 30 | 37.5 26 | 2.1 0 | 5.9 4 | 8.1 5 | – | – | – | 5.3 |
| IMOP/El Confidencial | 10–13 Apr 2023 | 822 | 70 | 42.4 30 | 33.6 24 | 2.5 0 | 6.8 4 | 10.5 7 | – | – | – | 8.8 |
| ElectoPanel/El Plural | 5–11 Apr 2023 | 600 | ? | 43.8 31 | 33.8 23 | 1.9 0 | 5.9 4 | 10.9 7 | – | 2.6 0 | – | 10.0 |
| Celeste-Tel/PSOE | 27 Mar–11 Apr 2023 | 1,500 | ? | ? 31 | ? 26 | ? 0 | ? 4 | ? 4 | – | – | – | ? |
| SocioMétrica/El Español | 3–7 Apr 2023 | 1,200 | ? | 41.2 29/30 | 37.7 26/27 | 2.0 0 | 6.6 3 | 8.9 6 | – | – | – | 3.5 |
| ElectoPanel/El Plural | 27 Mar–4 Apr 2023 | 600 | ? | 43.7 31 | 33.8 23 | 1.8 0 | 5.8 4 | 10.7 7 | – | 2.9 0 | – | 9.9 |
| NC Report/La Razón | 10–17 Mar 2023 | ? | 71.0 | 43.5 30 | 37.3 27 | – | 6.6 4 | 6.9 4 | – | – | – | 6.2 |
| KeyData/Público | 15 Mar 2023 | ? | 73.0 | 42.2 30 | 35.9 26 | 2.8 0 | 6.5 4 | 7.2 5 | – | – | – | 6.3 |
| Data10/OKDiario | 13–15 Feb 2023 | 1,500 | ? | 42.4 29 | 37.7 27 | 2.2 0 | 6.1 4 | 7.8 5 | – | – | – | 4.7 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo | 30 Nov–5 Dec 2022 | 900 | ? | 41.2 29/30 | 35.4 26/27 | 4.5 0/1 | 7.6 4/5 | 6.9 4 | – | – | – | 5.8 |
| CIS | 17 Nov–2 Dec 2022 | 242 | ? | 36.9 24/32 | 41.4 26/35 | 1.0 0/2 | 7.3 0/6 | 4.4 0/5 | – | – | – | 4.5 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía | 1 Oct–13 Nov 2022 | 303 | ? | 43.3 30 | 31.5 23 | 1.5 0 | 5.4 3 | 13.5 9 | – | 3.6 0 | – | 11.8 |
| GAD3/PP | 26–31 Oct 2022 | 802 | ? | 41.9 29/30 | 37.5 27/28 | 2.5 0 | 5.5 3/4 | 6.7 4/5 | – | – | – | 4.4 |
| Celeste-Tel/PSOE | 21 Sep–10 Oct 2022 | 1,800 | 72.6 | 45.2 31/33 | 33.5 23/25 | 4.3 0 | 6.6 4 | 7.8 5 | 0.9 0 | – | – | 11.7 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía | 30 Mar 2021 | 400 | ? | 45.4 32 | 31.9 23 | 3.5 0 | 5.5 3 | 11.4 7 | – | – | – | 13.5 |
| SyM Consulting | 12–14 Mar 2021 | 1,437 | 71.3 | 51.4 37/38 | 28.4 20/21 | 2.7 0 | 4.9 1 | 9.2 5/7 | – | – | – | 23.0 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía | 1 Apr–15 May 2020 | ? | ? | 46.8 33 | 31.6 22 | 6.1 3 | 7.3 4 | 5.4 3 | – | – | – | 15.2 |
| SyM Consulting | 7–9 May 2020 | 1,496 | 71.8 | 44.9 32 | 28.2 17/18 | 7.8 4/5 | 7.0 5/6 | 9.5 5/6 | – | – | – | 16.7 |
| November 2019 general election | 10 Nov 2019 | — | 67.2 | 38.3 27 | 26.0 17 | 7.6 5 | 9.1 5 | 16.8 11 | – | – | – | 12.3 |
| 2019 regional election | 26 May 2019 | — | 69.3 | 46.8 34 | 27.5 20 | 11.1 7 | 7.2 4 | 4.7 0 | – | – | – | 19.3 |

### Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | | | | | | ? | N | Lead |
| 2023 regional election | 28 May 2023 | — | 28.2 | 27.5 | 0.6 | 4.2 | 5.7 | — | 27.5 | 0.7 |
| CIS | 10–26 Apr 2023 | 743 | 29.1 | 24.7 | 0.7 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 27.0 | 3.0 | 4.4 |
| CIS | 17 Nov–2 Dec 2022 | 242 | 20.9 | 26.7 | 0.4 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 29.4 | 6.9 | 5.8 |
| November 2019 general election | 10 Nov 2019 | — | 26.0 | 17.7 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 11.4 | — | 30.9 | 8.3 |
| 2019 regional election | 26 May 2019 | — | 32.9 | 19.4 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 3.3 | — | 28.7 | 13.5 |

### Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Regional Government of Extremadura.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | | | | | | Other/ None/ Not care | ? | Lead |
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | F. Vara PSOE | Guardiola PP | Baselga CS | De Miguel UP | Pelayo Vox | Other/ None/ Not care | ? | Lead |
| SocioMétrica/El Español | 3–7 Apr 2023 | 1,200 | 54.6 | 26.5 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 5.6 | – | – | 28.1 |

## Results
### Overall

← Summary of the 28 May 2023 Assembly of Extremadura election results → :
| Parties and alliances | Parties and alliances | Popular vote | Popular vote | Popular vote | Seats | Seats |
| Parties and alliances | Parties and alliances | Votes | % | ±pp | Total | +/− |
| | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) | 244,227 | 39.90 | –6.87 | 28 | –6 |
| | People's Party (PP) | 237,384 | 38.78 | +11.30 | 28 | +8 |
| | Vox (Vox) | 49,798 | 8.13 | +3.42 | 5 | +5 |
| | United for Extremadura We Can–United Left–Green Alliance (Podemos–IU–AV) | 36,836 | 6.01 | –1.19 | 4 | ±0 |
| | Together for Extremadura (JUEx) | 15,559 | 2.54 | New | 0 | ±0 |
| | Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (CS) | 5,463 | 0.89 | –10.22 | 0 | –7 |
| | Raise Extremadura (Levanta)$^1$ | 4,679 | 0.76 | +0.11 | 0 | ±0 |
| | A Worthy Extremadura (UED) | 2,289 | 0.37 | New | 0 | ±0 |
| | Cáceres Alive (Cáceres Viva) | 2,117 | 0.34 | New | 0 | ±0 |
| | We Are Cáceres (Somos Cc) | 1,975 | 0.32 | New | 0 | ±0 |
| | Extremennist Party–Extremennists–Party of Extremadurans (PEx–EXT) | 1,892 | 0.30 | New | 0 | ±0 |
| | For a Fairer World (PUM+J) | 1,156 | 0.18 | +0.09 | 0 | ±0 |
| Blank ballots | Blank ballots | 8,721 | 1.42 | +0.51 | | |
| Total | Total | 612,096 | | | 65 | ±0 |
| Valid votes | Valid votes | 612,096 | 97.77 | –0.90 | | |
| Invalid votes | Invalid votes | 13,937 | 2.23 | +0.90 | | |
| Votes cast / turnout | Votes cast / turnout | 626,033 | 70.35 | +1.09 | | |
| Abstentions | Abstentions | 263,803 | 29.65 | –1.09 | | |
| Registered voters | Registered voters | 889,836 | | | | |
| Sources |||||||
| Footnotes: $^1$ Raise Extremadura results are compared to United Extremadura totals in the 2019 election. |||||||
Popular vote
PSOE
39.90%
PP
38.78%
Vox
8.13%
Podemos–IU–AV
6.01%
JUEx
2.54%
Others
3.22%
Blank ballots
1.42% :
Seats
PSOE
43.08%
PP
43.08%
Vox
7.69%
Podemos–IU–AV
6.15% :

### Distribution by constituency

| Constituency | PSOE | PSOE | PP | PP | Vox | Vox | UP | UP |
| Constituency | % | S | % | S | % | S | % | S |
| Badajoz | 41.2 | 16 | 38.0 | 15 | 8.0 | 3 | 6.0 | 2 |
| Cáceres | 37.7 | 12 | 40.1 | 13 | 8.4 | 2 | 6.1 | 2 |
| Total | 39.9 | 28 | 38.8 | 28 | 8.1 | 5 | 6.0 | 4 |
| Sources |||||||||

## Aftermath

Investiture María Guardiola (PP) :
| Ballot → | Ballot → | 14 July 2023 |
| Required majority → | Required majority → | 33 out of 65 Y |
| | Yes • PP (28) • Vox (5) | 33 / 65 |
| | No • PSOE (28) • UP (4) | 32 / 65 |
| | Abstentions | 0 / 65 |
| | Absentees | 0 / 65 |
| Sources |||