# 2024 United States presidential election in New Jersey

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The 2024 United States presidential election in New Jersey took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New Jersey voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New Jersey has 14 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.
New Jersey has backed the Democratic candidate in every presidential election since 1992. Kamala Harris was widely expected to win the state, which she did by a 5.91% margin, marking the first single-digit margin of victory for a Democrat in the state since 2004. This is the closest a Republican has come to winning in New Jersey since 1992. Trump's 1.96 million votes is the most received by a Republican in a presidential election in the state's history, surpassing Ronald Reagan's 1.93 million votes from 1984.
New Jersey had the second-largest swing to the right from the 2020 election after New York, owing largely to poor Democratic turnout compared to 2020 and 2016. New Jersey joined most other blue and blue-leaning states such as New York, California, and Illinois in seeing significant rightward trends in 2024.

## Primary elections
### Democratic primary

The New Jersey Democratic primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota.
New Jersey Democratic primary, June 4, 2024 :
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | Actual delegate count | Actual delegate count |
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Pledged | Unpledged | Total |
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 458,281 | 88.2% | 124 | | |
| Uncommitted | 46,988 | 9.1% | 2 | | |
| Terrisa Bukovinac | 14,179 | 2.7% | | | |
| Write-in votes | 1,269 | 0.2% | | | |
| Total: | 520,717 | 100.0% | 126 | 20 | 146 |

### Republican primary

The New Jersey Republican primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota.
New Jersey Republican primary, June 4, 2024 :
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | Actual delegate count | Actual delegate count |
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Bound | Unbound | Total |
| Donald Trump | 294,658 | 96.7% | 12 | 0 | 12 |
| Write-in votes | 9,915 | 3.3% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total: | 304,573 | 100.00% | 12 | 0 | 12 |

## General election
### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| Cook Political Report | Solid D | November 1, 2024 |
| Inside Elections | Solid D | October 31, 2024 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe D | September 25, 2024 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill | Safe D | August 26, 2024 |
| CNalysis | Solid D | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN | Solid D | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist | Safe D | October 27, 2024 |
| 538 | Solid D | October 21, 2024 |
| NBC News | Safe D | October 6, 2024 |

### Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kamala Harris Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Other / Undecided |
| Research Co. | November 2–3, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 57% | 40% | 3% |
| Rutgers-Eagleton | October 15–22, 2024 | 451 (RV) | – | 55% | 35% | 10% |
| Rutgers-Eagleton | October 15–22, 2024 | 478 (RV) | – | 51% | 37% | 12% |
| ActiVote | October 2–28, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 57% | 43% | – |
| Cygnal (R) | October 23–24, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 40% | 8% |
| ActiVote | September 4 – October 2, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 56% | 44% | – |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Other / Undecided |
| United 2024 (R) | July 1–2, 2024 | 477 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 41% | 43% | 16% |
| John Zogby Strategies | April 13–21, 2024 | 530 (LV) | – | 51% | 42% | 7% |
| Emerson College | March 26–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 39% | 15% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent | Cornel West Independent | Jill Stein Green | Other / Undecided |
| United 2024 (R) | July 1–2, 2024 | 477 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 43% | 43% | 8% | — | 3% | 3% |
| Emerson College | March 26–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 36% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 13% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent | Other / Undecided |
| co/efficient (R) | June 26–27, 2024 | 810 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 41% | 7% | 12% |
Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent | Other / Undecided |
| John Zogby Strategies | April 13–21, 2024 | 530 (LV) | – | 48% | 41% | 11% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent | Donald Trump Republican | Other / Undecided |
| John Zogby Strategies | April 13–21, 2024 | 530 (LV) | – | 42% | 40% | 18% |

### Results

2024 United States presidential election in New Jersey :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Democratic | Kamala Harris Tim Walz | 2,220,713 | 51.97% | −5.37% |
| | Republican | Donald Trump JD Vance | 1,968,215 | 46.06% | +4.66% |
| | Green | Jill Stein Butch Ware | 39,041 | 0.91% | +0.60% |
| | Independent | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (withdrawn)Nicole Shanahan (withdrawn) | 23,479 | 0.55% | N/A |
| | Libertarian | Chase Oliver Mike ter Maat | 10,500 | 0.25% | −0.45% |
| | Socialism and Liberation | Claudia De la Cruz Karina Garcia | 5,105 | 0.12% | +0.06% |
| | Constitution | Randall Terry Stephen Broden | 3,024 | 0.07% | +0.01% |
| | Socialist Equality | Joseph Kishore Jerome White | 1,371 | 0.03% | N/A |
| | Socialist Workers | Rachele Fruit Margaret Trowe | 1,277 | 0.03% | N/A |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 4,272,725 | 100.0% | |
| | Democratic hold | Democratic hold | Democratic hold | Democratic hold | Democratic hold |

#### By county

* Republican — +0-2.5%
* Republican — +2.5-5%
* Republican — +5-7.5%
* Republican — +7.5-10%
* Republican — +10-12.5%
* Republican — +12.5-15%
* Republican — +>15%
* Democratic  Hold Republican  Hold  Gain from Democratic
| County | Kamala Harris Democratic | Kamala Harris Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Donald Trump Republican | Various candidates Other parties | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Margin | Total |
| County | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | Total |
| Atlantic | 61,879 | 47.52% | 65,817 | 50.55% | 2,513 | 1.93% | -3,938 | -3.03% | 130,209 |
| Bergen | 232,660 | 50.50% | 217,096 | 47.12% | 10,929 | 2.38% | 15,564 | 3.38% | 460,685 |
| Burlington | 132,275 | 57.47% | 94,116 | 40.89% | 3,792 | 1.64% | 38,159 | 16.58% | 230,183 |
| Camden | 155,522 | 62.76% | 87,767 | 35.42% | 4,497 | 1.82% | 67,755 | 27.34% | 247,786 |
| Cape May | 21,648 | 39.51% | 32,151 | 58.68% | 987 | 1.81% | -10,503 | -19.17% | 54,786 |
| Cumberland | 26,577 | 47.50% | 28,675 | 51.25% | 700 | 1.25% | -2,098 | -3.75% | 55,952 |
| Essex | 224,596 | 71.69% | 83,908 | 26.78% | 4,779 | 1.53% | 140,688 | 44.91% | 313,283 |
| Gloucester | 78,708 | 47.63% | 83,326 | 50.42% | 3,229 | 1.95% | -4,618 | -2.79% | 165,263 |
| Hudson | 144,765 | 62.34% | 79,913 | 34.41% | 7,554 | 3.25% | 64,852 | 27.93% | 232,232 |
| Hunterdon | 36,995 | 45.52% | 42,391 | 52.16% | 1,885 | 2.32% | -5,396 | -6.64% | 81,271 |
| Mercer | 107,558 | 65.67% | 52,274 | 31.92% | 3,947 | 2.41% | 55,284 | 33.75% | 163,779 |
| Middlesex | 191,802 | 52.31% | 162,459 | 44.31% | 12,378 | 3.38% | 29,343 | 8.00% | 366,639 |
| Monmouth | 156,382 | 43.25% | 197,409 | 54.59% | 7,805 | 2.16% | -41,027 | -11.34% | 361,596 |
| Morris | 135,672 | 47.43% | 143,439 | 50.14% | 6,955 | 2.43% | -7,767 | -2.71% | 286,066 |
| Ocean | 105,789 | 31.30% | 227,232 | 67.22% | 5,014 | 1.48% | -121,443 | -35.92% | 338,035 |
| Passaic | 95,156 | 46.79% | 100,954 | 49.65% | 7,241 | 3.56% | -5,798 | -2.86% | 203,351 |
| Salem | 12,275 | 39.49% | 18,229 | 58.64% | 581 | 1.87% | -5,954 | -19.15% | 31,085 |
| Somerset | 98,790 | 55.39% | 74,101 | 41.55% | 5,452 | 3.06% | 24,689 | 13.84% | 178,343 |
| Sussex | 31,019 | 36.53% | 52,123 | 61.38% | 1,775 | 2.09% | -21,104 | -24.85% | 84,917 |
| Union | 147,327 | 60.90% | 89,063 | 36.81% | 5,533 | 2.29% | 58,264 | 24.09% | 241,923 |
| Warren | 23,318 | 38.63% | 35,772 | 59.27% | 1,266 | 2.10% | -12,454 | -20.64% | 60,356 |
| Totals | 2,220,713 | 51.79% | 1,968,215 | 45.90% | 98,812 | 2.31% | 252,498 | 5.89% | 4,287,740 |

#### Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

* Atlantic (largest municipality: Egg Harbor Township)
* Cumberland (largest municipality: Vineland)
* Gloucester (largest municipality: Washington Township)
* Morris (largest municipality: Parsippany)
* Passaic (largest municipality: Paterson)

#### By congressional district

Harris won 8 of 12 congressional districts, with the remaining four going to Trump, including one that elected a Democrat.
| District | Harris | Trump | Representative |
| 1st | 58% | 40% | Donald Norcross |
| 2nd | 43% | 55% | Jeff Van Drew |
| 3rd | 53% | 45% | Andy Kim (118th Congress) |
| 3rd | 53% | 45% | Herb Conaway (119th Congress) |
| 4th | 34% | 64% | Chris Smith |
| 5th | 50% | 48% | Josh Gottheimer |
| 6th | 52% | 45% | Frank Pallone Jr. |
| 7th | 48% | 49% | Tom Kean Jr. |
| 8th | 61% | 37% | Rob Menendez |
| 9th | 48% | 49% | Nellie Pou |
| 10th | 74% | 24% | LaMonica McIver |
| 11th | 53% | 45% | Mikie Sherrill |
| 12th | 60% | 37% | Bonnie Watson Coleman |

#### By State Legislative District

Harris won 25 of 40 State Legislative districts. Harris carried 3 districts (2nd, 8th, 21st) represented by Republican senators, while Trump carried 3 districts represented by Democratic Senators (3rd, 36th, 38th).
| District | Harris | Trump | State Senator |
| 1st | 44% | 55% | Mike Testa |
| 2nd | 50% | 48% | Vincent J. Polistina |
| 3rd | 45% | 53% | John Burzichelli |
| 4th | 50% | 48% | Paul D. Moriarty |
| 5th | 64% | 35% | Nilsa Cruz-Perez |
| 6th | 63% | 35% | James Beach |
| 7th | 64% | 35% | Troy Singleton |
| 8th | 50% | 49% | Latham Tiver |
| 9th | 35% | 64% | Carmen Amato |
| 10th | 35% | 63% | James W. Holzapfel |
| 11th | 51% | 47% | Vin Gopal |
| 12th | 36% | 61% | Owen Henry |
| 13th | 41% | 57% | Declan O'Scanlon |
| 14th | 54% | 43% | Linda R. Greenstein |
| 15th | 70% | 28% | Shirley Turner |
| 16th | 55% | 41% | Andrew Zwicker |
| 17th | 64% | 32% | Bob Smith |
| 18th | 53% | 43% | Patrick J. Diegnan |
| 19th | 49% | 48% | Joe F. Vitale |
| 20th | 61% | 37% | Joseph Cryan |
| 21st | 55% | 43% | Jon Bramnick |
| 22nd | 61% | 37% | Nicholas Scutari |
| 23rd | 44% | 54% | Doug Steinhardt |
| 24th | 39% | 59% | Parker Space |
| 25th | 49% | 49% | Anthony M. Bucco |
| 26th | 44% | 53% | Joseph Pennacchio |
| 27th | 64% | 33% | John F. McKeon |
| 28th | 88% | 11% | Renee Burgess |
| 29th | 70% | 29% | Teresa Ruiz |
| 30th | 26% | 72% | Robert W. Singer |
| 31st | 62% | 35% | Angela V. McKnight |
| 32nd | 70% | 27% | Raj Mukherji |
| 33rd | 55% | 42% | Brian P. Stack |
| 34th | 69% | 29% | Britnee Timberlake |
| 35th | 54% | 42% | Nellie Pou |
| 36th | 47% | 51% | Paul Sarlo |
| 37th | 60% | 37% | Gordon M. Johnson |
| 38th | 49% | 49% | Joseph Lagana |
| 39th | 48% | 50% | Holly Schepisi |
| 40th | 45% | 52% | Kristin Corrado |

## Analysis

Trump retook Gloucester County and Morris County, which he won in 2016 but lost to Biden in 2020. Additionally, Trump is the first Republican to win Passaic County since 1992, as well as Atlantic County and Cumberland County since 1988, while also being the first Republican presidential candidate to win a majority of the state's counties since 1992.
The largest swings were in North Jersey, although Trump also flipped counties in South Jersey. This is likely related to North Jersey being part of the New York metropolitan area, which swung heavily to the right in this election.
Trump's success in New Jersey was partially attributed to his success among Hispanic and Latino Americans, who shifted hard to the right nationally. This was seen in most of New Jersey's majority-Hispanic towns, which collectively shifted 25% to the right, a much higher rate than the state of New Jersey as a whole. In some majority-Hispanic cities, the Democratic Party's margin collapsed by as much as over 30% (Perth Amboy's margin shrunk by 33%), an underperformance that helped Trump flip Hispanic-plurality Passaic County. This was attributed by Republican strategists on the ground to a perceived overly strong focus on identity politics and immigration instead of household issues. Trump's success did not, however, translate down-ballot, as most Democratic legislators put up double digit overperformances compared to Harris, a phenomenon that appeared to be partially due to Trump-supporting Hispanics voting for Trump and leaving the rest of the ballot empty.
With this election, and Republican Jack Ciattarelli's strong performance in the 2021 gubernatorial election, some analysts believe New Jersey has transitioned from a reliable blue state into a potential swing state. The concurrent Senate race also lends this theory some legitimacy, as Kim was polling 20 points ahead of Bashaw in aggregates, but only won by 9.6%, smaller than Menendez's 2018 11.2% margin.