# 2024 United States Senate election in Arizona

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vte :
The 2024 United States Senate election in Arizona was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arizona. This election was the fifth consecutive even-number year in which a Senate election was held in Arizona after 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022. Democratic U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego defeated Republican former news journalist Kari Lake to succeed Democrat-turned-independent incumbent Kyrsten Sinema, who did not seek a second term.
Sinema, who was elected as a Democrat, was considered vulnerable to a primary challenge due to frequently opposing her party's legislative agenda. After preparing a re-election bid as an independent, Sinema announced she would retire from the Senate. Lake, the Republican nominee in the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election, won her party's nomination with 55% of the vote against Pinal County sheriff Mark Lamb. The election was considered among the most competitive Senate races in 2024.
Most polls and ratings had Gallego as the slight favorite to win. Gallego defeated Lake by 2.41 percentage points, a closer race than polls had projected for most of the campaign. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's wider-than-expected victory in the state likely contributed to this, but there was also a significant amount of ticket splitting between the presidential and senatorial races.
Gallego outperformed Kamala Harris by the fourth largest margin among Democratic Senate candidates in 2024, and the largest margin for a non-incumbent. Gallego received about 93,000 more votes than Kamala Harris, while Lake received about 175,000 fewer votes than Donald Trump. This election marked the fourth consecutive election cycle in which Democrats won a Senate election in Arizona.
This was the first time that Arizona voted for candidates of different political parties for U.S. senator and president since Democrat Dennis DeConcini was reelected as Republican George H. W. Bush carried the state in 1988. Gallego also became the first Latino elected to the Senate from Arizona, a state with a large Latino population.

## Background

Arizona was once considered a Republican stronghold, but has become a critical swing state. Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years. As of May 2024, Democrats control the governorship, most other statewide offices, and both U.S. Senate seats, while Republicans control both houses of the Arizona State Legislature and a 6–3 majority of Arizona's U.S. House delegation. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump won Arizona by 3.5% in 2016, while Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden prevailed by 0.3% in 2020.

## Democratic primary

Prior to her departure from the Democratic Party, Sinema was considered highly vulnerable to a primary challenge due to her opposition to several parts of the Democratic Party's legislative agenda. Prospective polling showed Sinema trailing all of her potential challengers by wide margins, with U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego being viewed by numerous political analysts as the frontrunner to challenge her. On January 22, 2022, the Arizona Democratic Party voted overwhelmingly to censure Sinema for a second time for voting against a carve-out to the Senate filibuster rule in a Democratic-led effort to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act. Sinema did not support the Inflation Reduction Act until after Democratic leaders agreed to remove a provision closing the so-called carried interest tax loophole, the closure of which would have raised taxes on hedge fund owners and investment managers. This action renewed calls from Democrats for Sinema to face a primary opponent in her next election.
Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022 and registered as an independent, while continuing to be counted as part of the Senate Democratic Caucus.

### Candidates
#### Nominee

* Ruben Gallego, U.S. representative for Arizona's 3rd congressional district (2015–2025)

#### Declined

* Kate Gallego, Mayor of Phoenix (2019–present) (endorsed Ruben Gallego, her ex-husband)
* Greg Stanton, U.S. representative for Arizona's 4th congressional district (2019–present) and former mayor of Phoenix (2012–2018) (ran for re-election)

### Endorsements

Federal officials
* Hillary Clinton, former U.S. Secretary of State (2009–2013)
U.S. senators
* Dennis DeConcini, Arizona (1977–1995)
* Mark Kelly, Arizona (2020–present)
* Chuck Schumer, New York (1999–present)
U.S. representatives
* Ron Barber, AZ-02 (2012–2015)
* Gabby Giffords, AZ-08 (2007–2012)
* Dan Goldman, NY-10 (2023–present)
* Raúl Grijalva, AZ-07 (2003–2025)
* Ann Kirkpatrick, AZ-02 (2009–2011, 2013–2017, 2019–2023)
* Seth Moulton, MA-06 (2015–present)
* Nancy Pelosi, CA-11 (1987–present) and former Speaker of the House (2007–2011, 2019–2023)
* Linda Sánchez, CA-38 (2013–present)
Statewide officials
* Katie Hobbs, Governor of Arizona (2023–present)
* Anna Tovar, Arizona Corporation Commissioner (2021–present)
State legislators
* Flavio Bravo, state senator from the 26th district (2015–2019, 2023–present)
* Eva Diaz, state senator from the 22nd district (2023–present)
* Mitzi Epstein, Arizona Senate Minority Leader (2023–present) from the 12th district (2023–present)
* Theresa Hatathlie, state senator from the 6th district (2023–present)
* Catherine Miranda, state senator from the 11th district (2015–2019, 2023–present)
* 7 state representatives
Local officials
* Yassamin Ansari, Phoenix city councilor (2021–present)
* Kate Gallego, Mayor of Phoenix (2019–present) (candidate's ex-wife)
* Regina Romero, mayor of Tucson (2019–present)
* Corey Woods, mayor of Tempe (2020–present)
Individuals
* Harry Dunn, former U.S. Capitol Police officer
* Mark Hamill, actor
* Dolores Huerta, labor leader
Political parties
* Arizona Democratic Party
Labor unions
* Alliance for Retired Americans
* Arizona AFL-CIO
* Association of Flight Attendants
* Communications Workers of America Arizona State Council
* International Brotherhood of Teamsters Local 104
* National Education Association
* United Farm Workers
* United Mine Workers of America
Organizations
* Brady PAC
* CHC BOLD PAC
* Climate Hawks Vote
* Council for a Livable World
* Democratic Senate Campaign Committee
* End Citizens United
* Feminist Majority PAC
* Giffords
* Human Rights Campaign
* Indivisible
* Jewish Democratic Council of America
* Latino Victory Fund
* League of Conservation Voters
* People for the American Way
* Planned Parenthood Action Fund
* Population Connection Action Fund
* Progressive Change Campaign Committee
* Reproductive Freedom for All
* Sierra Club
* Stonewall Democrats of Arizona
* Swing Left
* UnidosUS
* VoteVets
Tribes
* Salt River Pima–Maricopa Indian Community
* San Carlos Apache Tribe

### Polling

Ruben Gallego vs. Alexander Keller
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ruben Gallego | Alexander Keller | Other | Undecided |
| Emerson College | August 2–4, 2023 | 571 (LV) | – | 48% | 6% | 6% | 40% |
Ruben Gallego vs. Kate Gallego vs. Kathy Hoffman vs. Regina Romero vs. Kyrsten Sinema vs. Greg Stanton
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kate Gallego | Ruben Gallego | Kathy Hoffman | Regina Romero | Kyrsten Sinema | Greg Stanton | Undecided |
| Data for Progress (D) | January 21–24, 2022 | 673 (LV) | ± 4.0% | – | 74% | – | – | 16% | – | 10% |
| Data for Progress (D) | January 21–24, 2022 | 673 (LV) | ± 4.0% | – | 66% | – | – | 17% | – | 17% |
| Noble Predictive Insights | November 1–8, 2021 | 229 (RV) | ± 6.5% | – | 47% | – | – | 24% | – | 29% |
| Noble Predictive Insights | November 1–8, 2021 | 229 (RV) | ± 6.5% | – | – | 44% | – | 24% | – | 32% |
| Noble Predictive Insights | November 1–8, 2021 | 229 (RV) | ± 6.5% | – | – | – | – | 25% | 47% | 28% |
| Data for Progress (D) | October 8–10, 2021 | 467 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 9% | 23% | – | 9% | 19% | 13% | 26% |
| Data for Progress (D) | October 8–10, 2021 | 467 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 60% | – | – | – | 25% | – | 15% |
| Data for Progress (D) | October 8–10, 2021 | 467 (LV) | ± 5.0% | – | 62% | – | – | 23% | – | 15% |
| Data for Progress (D) | October 8–10, 2021 | 467 (LV) | ± 5.0% | – | – | – | 55% | 26% | – | 19% |
| Data for Progress (D) | October 8–10, 2021 | 467 (LV) | ± 5.0% | – | – | – | – | 24% | 59% | 17% |

### Results

Democratic primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Democratic | Ruben Gallego | 498,927 | 100.0% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 498,927 | 100.0% |

## Republican primary
### Candidates
#### Nominee

* Kari Lake, former KSAZ-TV news anchor and nominee for governor of Arizona in 2022

#### Eliminated in primary

* Mark Lamb, Pinal County Sheriff (2017–2024)
* Elizabeth Jean Reye, neuroscientist

#### Declined

* Juan Ciscomani, U.S. representative for Arizona's 6th congressional district (2023–present)
* Doug Ducey, governor of Arizona (2015–2023)
* Abraham Hamadeh, former prosecutor in the Maricopa County Attorney's office and nominee for Arizona Attorney General in 2022 (ran for U.S. House, endorsed Lake)
* Blake Masters, venture capitalist and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2022 (ran for U.S. House, endorsed Lake)
* Karrin Taylor Robson, former member of the Arizona Board of Regents (2017–2021) and candidate for governor of Arizona in 2022 (endorsed Lake)
* Kelli Ward, former state senator from the 5th district (2013–2015), former chair of the Arizona Republican Party (2019–2023), and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2018

### Endorsements

U.S. presidents
* Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)
U.S. senators
* John Barrasso, Wyoming (2007–present)
* Marsha Blackburn, Tennessee (2019–present)
* Ted Budd, North Carolina (2023–present)
* John Cornyn, Texas (2002–present)
* Tom Cotton, Arkansas (2015–present)
* Kevin Cramer, North Dakota (2019–present)
* Ted Cruz, Texas (2013–present)
* Steve Daines, Montana (2015–present)
* Joni Ernst, Iowa (2015–present)
* Chuck Grassley, Iowa (1981–present)
* Bill Hagerty, Tennessee (2021–present)
* Mike Lee, Utah (2011–present)
* Cynthia Lummis, Wyoming (2021–present)
* Roger Marshall, Kansas (2021–present)
* Markwayne Mullin, Oklahoma (2023–present)
* Rand Paul, Kentucky (2011–present)
* Jim Risch, Idaho (2009–present)
* Eric Schmitt, Missouri (2023–present)
* Tim Scott, South Carolina (2013–present)
* John Thune, South Dakota, (2005–present)
* Tommy Tuberville, Alabama (2021–present)
* J.D. Vance, Ohio (2023–2025)
* Roger Wicker, Mississippi (2007–present)
U.S. representatives
* Jim Banks, IN-03 (2017–2025)
* Byron Donalds, FL-19 (2021–present)
* Matt Gaetz, FL-01 (2017–2024)
* Louie Gohmert, TX-01 (2005–2023)
* Ronny Jackson, TX-13 (2021–present)
* Brian Mast, FL-21 (2017–present)
* Cory Mills, FL-07 (2023–present)
* Burgess Owens, UT-04 (2021–present)
* Elise Stefanik, NY-21 (2015–present)
* Wesley Hunt, TX-38 (2023–present)
Statewide officials
* Doug Burgum, Governor of North Dakota (2016–2024)
* Ken Paxton, Texas Attorney General (2015–present)
State officials
* Karrin Taylor Robson, former member of the Arizona Board of Regents (2017–2021)
State senators
* Dave Farnsworth, state senator from SD-10 (2023–present)
* Jake Hoffman, SD-15 (2023–present)
* Wendy Rogers, state senator from SD-7 (2021–present)
* Warren Petersen, president of the Arizona Senate (2023–present) from SD-14 (2021–present)
State representatives
* Alexander Kolodin, SD-03 (2023–present)
Organizations
* Citizens United PVF
* College Republicans of America
* Republicans for National Renewal
* Republican National Hispanic Assembly
* National Republican Senatorial Committee
* Senate Conservatives Fund
* Turning Point Action
Individuals
* Blake Masters, venture capitalist
* David Bossie, president of Citizens United
* Chad Prather, comedian
* Vivek Ramaswamy, pharmaceutical executive and candidate for president in 2024
Organizations
* Latinos for America First

### Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of July 10, 2024 :
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Kari Lake | $10,352,741 | $8,290,053 | $2,062,687 |
| Mark Lamb | $2,059,130 | $1,795,730 | $263,400 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission ||||

### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kari Lake | Mark Lamb | Other | Undecided |
| Noble Predictive Insights | July 22–23, 2024 | 438 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 49% | 38% | 7% | 2% |
| Noble Predictive Insights | May 7–14, 2024 | 364 (RV) | ± 5.1% | 46% | 21% | 9% | 25% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | February 21–26, 2024 | 469 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 55% | 26% | 7% | 12% |
| Noble Predictive Insights | February 6–13, 2024 | 384 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 54% | 21% | 9% | 17% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Abe Hamadeh | Kari Lake | Mark Lamb | Jim Lamon | Blake Masters | Karrin Taylor Robson | Brian Wright | Other | Undecided |
| Noble Predictive Insights | October 25–31, 2023 | 1,010 (RV) | ± 3.1% | – | 40% | 14% | – | 10% | – | 4% | – | 33% |
| Emerson College | August 2–4, 2023 | 667 (LV) | ± 3.7% | – | 42% | 11% | 2% | 7% | – | 2% | – | 28% |
| J.L. Partners | April 10–12, 2023 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 4% | 38% | 8% | 3% | 7% | 10% | – | 2% | 29% |

### Results

Republican primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Republican | Kari Lake | 409,339 | 55.28% |
| | Republican | Mark Lamb | 292,888 | 39.56% |
| | Republican | Elizabeth Jean Reye | 38,208 | 5.16% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 740,435 | 100.0% |

## Green primary

The Arizona Green Party endorsed the write-in campaign of Quintana and was "actively opposed" to Hernandez and Norton's campaigns. A press release on the national Green Party's website states that party leaders allege that Norton is a plant for the Democratic Party and that Hernandez is a plant for the Republican Party.

### Candidates
#### Nominee

* Eduardo Heredia Quintana (write-in), chair of the Pima County Green Party

#### Eliminated in primary

* Mike Norton, nonprofit executive
* Arturo Hernandez

### Endorsements

Political parties
* Arizona Green Party

### Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024 :
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Mike Norton | $84,401 | $76,692 | $7,708 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission ||||

### Results

Green primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Green | Eduardo Heredia Quintana (write-in) | 282 | 49.47% |
| | Green | Mike Norton | 180 | 31.58% |
| | Green | Arturo Hernandez | 108 | 18.95% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 570 | 100.0% |

## Independents
### Candidates
#### Declined

* Kyrsten Sinema, incumbent U.S. senator (2019–present)

### Endorsements

U.S. senators
* Lisa Murkowski, Alaska (2002–present) (Republican)
Individuals
* Meghan McCain, television personality and daughter of former U.S. Senator John McCain (Republican)
Organizations
* AIPAC

### Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 :
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Kyrsten Sinema | $17,047,387 | $7,065,565 | $10,153,343 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission ||||

## General election
### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| Elections Daily | Likely D (flip) | October 9, 2024 |
| CNalysis | Likely D (flip) | October 15, 2024 |
| RealClearPolitics | Lean D (flip) | October 3, 2024 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean D (flip) | September 6, 2024 |
| Inside Elections | Lean D (flip) | October 10, 2024 |
| The Cook Political Report | Lean D (flip) | September 12, 2024 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill | Lean D (flip) | September 20, 2024 |
| Split Ticket | Lean D (flip) | October 23, 2024 |
| 538 | Likely D (flip) | October 23, 2024 |

### Post-primary endorsements

Executive branch officials
* Bill Clinton, President of the United States (1993–2001)
* Barack Obama, President of the United States (2009–2017)
* Kamala Harris, Vice President of the United States (2021–2025)
Statewide officials
* Tim Walz, Governor of Minnesota (2019–present)
* Gretchen Whitmer, Governor of Michigan (2019–present)
State legislators
* Adrian Boafo, Maryland state delegate from the 23rd district (2023–present)
* Robin Shaw, former state representative (1994–1998) (Republican)
Mayors
* John Giles, Mesa (2014–present) (Republican)
* Neil Giuliano, Tempe (1994–2004)
Organizations
* Arizona Police Association
* Democratic Majority for Israel
* Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund
* League of United Latin American Citizens Adelante PAC
* March for Our Lives
U.S. Senators
* Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator from Florida (2011–2025)
Governors
* Doug Ducey, former Governor of Arizona (2015–2023)
Local officials
* Mark Lamb, Sheriff of Pinal County (2017–2024)
Organizations
* Club for Growth PAC

### Debates

2024 Arizona U.S. Senate election debate :
| No. | Date | Host | Moderators | Link | Democratic | Republican |
| Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W Withdrawn | Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W Withdrawn | Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W Withdrawn | Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W Withdrawn | Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W Withdrawn | | |
| Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W Withdrawn | Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W Withdrawn | Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W Withdrawn | Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W Withdrawn | Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W Withdrawn | Gallego | Lake |
| 1 | October 10, 2024 | Clean Elections | Steve Goldstein Nohelani Graf | | P | P |

### Post-primary fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024 :
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Ruben Gallego (D) | $56,843,786 | $55,360,823 | $2,759,538 |
| Kari Lake (R) | $21,396,539 | $18,239,291 | $3,157,247 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission ||||

### Polling

Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Ruben Gallego (D) | Kari Lake (R) | Undecided | Margin |
| FiveThirtyEight | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 49.4% | 45.3% | 5.3% | Gallego +4.1% |
| RealClearPolitics | October 20 – November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.8% | 45.6% | 5.4% | Gallego +3.2% |
| 270toWin | October 22 – November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 49.5% | 44.3% | 6.2% | Gallego +5.2% |
| TheHill/DDHQ | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 49.3% | 45.8% | 4.9% | Gallego +3.5% |
| Average | Average | Average | 49.3% | 45.3% | 5.4% | Gallego +4.0% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ruben Gallego (D) | Kari Lake (R) | Other | Undecided |
| AtlasIntel | November 3–4, 2024 | 875 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 48% | 2% | 2% |
| Victory Insights (R) | November 2–3, 2024 | 750 (LV) | – | 50% | 47% | – | 3% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | November 1–3, 2024 | 1,090 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 49% | 49% | – | 2% |
| Patriot Polling (R) | November 1–3, 2024 | 801 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 48% | – | – |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | November 1–2, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 47% | 1% | 3% |
| AtlasIntel | November 1–2, 2024 | 967 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 49% | 2% | 2% |
| Emerson College | October 30 – November 2, 2024 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 50% | 45% | – | 5% |
| New York Times/Siena College | October 25 – November 2, 2024 | 1,025 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 45% | – | 4% |
| New York Times/Siena College | October 25 – November 2, 2024 | 1,025 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 51% | 43% | – | 6% |
| Morning Consult | October 23 – November 1, 2024 | 666 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 42% | – | 8% |
| AtlasIntel | October 30–31, 2024 | 1,005 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | 2% | 1% |
| OnMessage (R) | October 29–31, 2024 | 800 (LV) | – | 48% | 48% | – | 4% |
| YouGov | October 25–31, 2024 | 856 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 45% | – | 6% |
| YouGov | October 25–31, 2024 | 880 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 44% | – | 7% |
| ActiVote | October 5–31, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 54% | 46% | – | – |
| Noble Predictive Insights | October 28–30, 2024 | 775 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 44% | 4% | 3% |
| Data for Progress (D) | October 25–30, 2024 | 1,079 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 45% | 2% | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | October 25–29, 2024 | 803 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 44% | 4% | 4% |
| AtlasIntel | October 25–29, 2024 | 1,458 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 48% | 2% | 2% |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | October 28, 2024 | 610 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 46% | 3% | 5% |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | October 28, 2024 | 610 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 47% | – | 3% |
| Data Orbital (R) | October 26–28, 2024 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 45% | 45% | 5% | 6% |
| RABA Research | October 25–27, 2024 | 589 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 34% | 8% | 9% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | October 24–26, 2024 | 1,094 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 50% | 46% | – | 4% |
| CNN/SRSS | October 21–26, 2024 | 781 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 43% | 6% | 1% |
| Marist College | October 17–22, 2024 | 1,193 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 53% | 45% | – | 2% |
| Marist College | October 17–22, 2024 | 1,329 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 53% | 45% | – | 1% |
| HighGround Public Affairs | October 19–20, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 52% | 42% | 2% | 4% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | October 19–20, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 46% | 1% | 3% |
| University of Arizona/Truedot | October 12–20, 2024 | 846 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 51% | 36% | 2% | 11% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 16–18, 2024 | 691 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 41% | 5% | 7% |
| AtlasIntel | October 12–17, 2024 | 1,440 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 46% | 2% | 2% |
| CBS News/YouGov | October 11–16, 2024 | 1,403 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 54% | 45% | 1% | – |
| Morning Consult | October 6–15, 2024 | 653 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 40% | 3% | 5% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 12–14, 2024 | 1,141 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 47% | 42% | 4% | 7% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | October 10–13, 2024 | 1,090 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 44% | 3% | 6% |
| New York Times/Siena College | October 7–10, 2024 | 808 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 41% | – | 10% |
| New York Times/Siena College | October 7–10, 2024 | 808 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 39% | – | 12% |
| ActiVote | September 8 – October 10, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 53% | 47% | – | – |
| Emerson College | October 5–8, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 43% | – | 7% |
| SoCal Strategies (R) | October 5–7, 2024 | 735 (LV) | – | 51% | 39% | – | 10% |
| RMG Research | September 30 – October 2, 2024 | 783 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 41% | 4% | 5% |
| RMG Research | September 30 – October 2, 2024 | 783 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 52% | 42% | 1% | 5% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | September 27 – October 2, 2024 | 555 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 48% | 42% | 3% | 7% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) | September 24 – October 1, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 44% | 1% | 4% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | September 29–30, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 43% | 1% | 6% |
| HighGround Public Affairs | September 26–29, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 41% | 2% | 5% |
| National Research Inc. | September 25–29, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 42% | 2% | 8% |
| Emerson College | September 27–28, 2024 | 920 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 52% | 41% | – | 7% |
| AtlasIntel | September 20–25, 2024 | 946 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 46% | 2% | 2% |
| BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) | September 19–25, 2024 | 409 (LV) | – | 51% | 39% | 4% | 6% |
| BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) | September 19–25, 2024 | 409 (LV) | – | 54% | 41% | – | 5% |
| Fox News | September 20–24, 2024 | 764 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 55% | 42% | 1% | 1% |
| Fox News | September 20–24, 2024 | 1,021 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 56% | 42% | 1% | 1% |
| Suffolk University | September 19–24, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 41% | 5% | 8% |
| Marist College | September 19–24, 2024 | 1,264 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 54% | 44% | – | 1% |
| Marist College | September 19–24, 2024 | 1,416 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 53% | 44% | – | 2% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | September 19–22, 2024 | 1,030 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 45% | 4% | 4% |
| New York Times/Siena College | September 17–21, 2024 | 713 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 49% | 43% | – | 8% |
| New York Times/Siena College | September 17–21, 2024 | 713 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 50% | 41% | – | 9% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | September 16–19, 2024 | 789 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 46% | 41% | 3% | 9% |
| Emerson College | September 15–18, 2024 | 868 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 48% | 42% | – | 10% |
| Morning Consult | September 9–18, 2024 | 862 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | 39% | – | 8% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | September 11–12, 2024 | 1,088 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 43% | 4% | 5% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | September 6–9, 2024 | 765 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 48% | 42% | 2% | 8% |
| Morning Consult | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 901 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 41% | 3% | 7% |
| YouGov | August 23 – September 3, 2024 | 900 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 50% | 42% | – | 9% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | August 29–31, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 45% | 2% | 4% |
| University of Arizona/Truedot | August 28–31, 2024 | 1,155 (RV) | – | 47% | 36% | 4% | 13% |
| CNN/SRSS | August 23–29, 2024 | 682 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 47% | 44% | 8% | – |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | August 25–28, 2024 | 530 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 37% | 3% | 17% |
| Emerson College | August 25–28, 2024 | 720 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 49% | 42% | – | 9% |
| Fox News | August 23–26, 2024 | 1,014 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 56% | 41% | 2% | 1% |
| Noble Predictive Insights | August 12–16, 2024 | 1,003 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 40% | – | 13% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | August 12–15, 2024 | 592 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 44% | 39% | 4% | 13% |
| New York Times/Siena College | August 8–15, 2024 | 677 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 49% | 41% | – | 10% |
| New York Times/Siena College | August 8–15, 2024 | 677 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 42% | – | 8% |
| WPA Intelligence (R) | August 11–13, 2014 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 46% | 3% | 3% |
| Peak Insights (R) | July 31 – August 5, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 46% | – | 8% |
| HighGround Public Affairs | July 30 – August 5, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 39% | 3% | 9% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | July 31 – August 3, 2024 | 567 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 36% | – | 22% |
| BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) | July 26 – August 2, 2024 | 435 (LV) | – | 51% | 42% | – | 7% |
| | July 30, 2024 | Primary elections held | Primary elections held | Primary elections held | Primary elections held | Primary elections held | Primary elections held |
| Emerson College | July 22–23, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 42% | – | 12% |
| | July 21, 2024 | Joe Biden withdraws from the presidential race | Joe Biden withdraws from the presidential race | Joe Biden withdraws from the presidential race | Joe Biden withdraws from the presidential race | Joe Biden withdraws from the presidential race | Joe Biden withdraws from the presidential race |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | July 19–20, 2024 | 736 (RV) | – | 49% | 42% | – | 9% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | July 5–12, 2024 | 1,101 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 41% | 7% | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | July 10–11, 2024 | 596 (RV) | – | 50% | 47% | – | 4% |
| J.L. Partners (R) | July 10–11, 2024 | 513 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 43% | 44% | – | 3% |
| YouGov | July 4–12, 2024 | 900 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 48% | 41% | 2% | 9% |
| 793 (LV) | – | 49% | 42% | 2% | 8% |
| Expedition Strategies | June 24 – July 8, 2024 | 268 (LV) | – | 49% | 45% | – | 7% |
| Remington Research Group (R) | June 29 – July 1, 2024 | 638 (LV) | – | 47% | 47% | – | 6% |
| North Star Opinion Research (R) | June 17–20, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 38% | 9% | 13% |
| Emerson College | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 41% | – | 14% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | June 11–13, 2024 | 750 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 41% | 5% | 10% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | June 11–13, 2024 | 750 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 39% | 7% | 14% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) | May 28 – June 4, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 45% | – | 7% |
| Mainstreet Research/FAU | May 19–21, 2024 | 609 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 38% | – | 18% |
| Mainstreet Research/FAU | May 19–21, 2024 | 501 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 39% | – | 13% |
| CBS News/YouGov | May 10–16, 2024 | 1,214 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 36% | – | 15% |
| Noble Predictive Insights | May 7–14, 2024 | 1,003 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 36% | – | 18% |
| BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) | May 6–13, 2024 | 527 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 46% | 41% | – | 13% |
| New York Times/Siena College | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 626 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 41% | – | 14% |
| New York Times/Siena College | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 626 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 43% | – | 11% |
| Data Orbital (R) | April 27–29, 2024 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 44% | – | 8% |
| Emerson College | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 43% | – | 12% |
| RABA Research | March 28–31, 2024 | 503 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 36% | 28% | 13% | 23% |
| Emerson College | March 12–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 40% | – | 16% |
| | March 5, 2024 | Kyrsten Sinema announces she will not seek re-election. | Kyrsten Sinema announces she will not seek re-election. | Kyrsten Sinema announces she will not seek re-election. | Kyrsten Sinema announces she will not seek re-election. | Kyrsten Sinema announces she will not seek re-election. | Kyrsten Sinema announces she will not seek re-election. |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | February 21–26, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 45% | 4% | 9% |
| Emerson College | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 39% | – | 15% |
| Noble Predictive Insights | February 6–13, 2024 | 1,002 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 37% | – | 16% |
| J.L. Partners (R) | January 29 – February 1, 2024 | 500 (RV) | – | 44% | 46% | – | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | January 5–6, 2024 | 590 (V) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 46% | – | 9% |
| Cygnal (R) | October 24–25, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 43% | – | 11% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R) | October 24, 2023 | – | ± 4.4% | 49% | 44% | – | 7% |
| National Research Inc. (R) | October 8–9, 2023 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 44% | 44% | – | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | October 6–7, 2023 | 522 (V) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 43% | – | 9% |
| Noble Predictive Insights | July 13–17, 2023 | 1000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 35% | – | 20% |
| Noble Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 33% | – | 24% |
| Normington Petts (D) | January 18–23, 2023 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 45% | – | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | December 21, 2022 | 650 (V) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 47% | – | 5% |
Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake vs. Kyrsten Sinema
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ruben Gallego (D) | Kari Lake (R) | Kyrsten Sinema (I) | Other | Undecided |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | February 21–26, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 33% | 37% | 21% | 2% | 7% |
| Emerson College | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 30% | 21% | – | 13% |
| Noble Predictive Insights | February 6–13, 2024 | 1,002 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 34% | 31% | 23% | – | 12% |
| J.L. Partners (R) | January 29 – February 1, 2024 | 500 (RV) | – | 39% | 40% | 13% | – | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | January 5–6, 2024 | 590 (V) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 35% | 17% | – | 12% |
| VCreek/AMG (R) | December 1–8, 2023 | 694 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 35% | 41% | 16% | 1% | 7% |
| Tulchin Research (D) | November 13–20, 2023 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 39% | 34% | 17% | 6% | 4% |
| Noble Predictive Insights | October 25–31, 2023 | 1,010 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 39% | 33% | 29% | – | – |
| Cygnal (R) | October 24–25, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 37% | 15% | – | 11% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R) | October 24, 2023 | – | ± 4.4% | 41% | 37% | 17% | – | 5% |
| National Research Inc. (R) | October 8–9, 2023 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 33% | 37% | 19% | – | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | October 6–7, 2023 | 522 (V) | ± 4.3% | 41% | 36% | 15% | – | 8% |
| Noble Predictive Insights | July 13–17, 2023 | 1000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 34% | 25% | 26% | – | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | April 18–19, 2023 | 559 (V) | – | 42% | 35% | 14% | – | 9% |
| Noble Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 34% | 26% | 19% | – | 21% |
| Normington Petts (D) | January 18–23, 2023 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 36% | 36% | 24% | – | – |
| Blueprint Polling (D) | January 5–8, 2023 | 618 (V) | ± 3.9% | 32% | 36% | 14% | – | 19% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | December 21, 2022 | 678 (V) | ± 3.8% | 40% | 41% | 13% | – | 6% |
Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake vs. "An Independent / third-party candidate"
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ruben Gallego (D) | Kari Lake (R) | Generic independent | Undecided |
| The Bullfinch Group | March 29 – April 3, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 41% | 10% | 8% |
Ruben Gallego vs. Doug Ducey vs. Kyrsten Sinema
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ruben Gallego (D) | Doug Ducey (R) | Kyrsten Sinema (I) | Undecided |
| Noble Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 38% | 34% | – | 28% |
| Noble Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 32% | 27% | 17% | 23% |
| Normington Petts (D) | January 18–23, 2023 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 37% | 31% | 27% | 5% |
Ruben Gallego vs. Blake Masters vs. Kyrsten Sinema
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ruben Gallego (D) | Blake Masters (R) | Kyrsten Sinema (I) | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | October 6–7, 2023 | 522 (V) | ± 4.3% | 41% | 31% | 17% | 11% |
| Noble Predictive Insights | July 13–17, 2023 | 1000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 44% | 36% | – | 20% |
| Noble Predictive Insights | July 13–17, 2023 | 1000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 32% | 24% | 28% | 16% |
| Noble Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 32% | – | 26% |
| Noble Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 33% | 24% | 22% | 21% |
Ruben Gallego vs. Karrin Taylor-Robson vs. Kyrsten Sinema
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ruben Gallego (D) | Karrin Taylor Robson (R) | Kyrsten Sinema (I) | Undecided |
| Noble Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 36% | 32% | – | 32% |
| Noble Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 31% | 24% | 21% | 25% |
Ruben Gallego vs. Mark Lamb vs. Kyrsten Sinema
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ruben Gallego (D) | Mark Lamb (R) | Kyrsten Sinema (I) | Undecided |
| Noble Predictive Insights | October 25–31, 2023 | 1,010 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 36% | 32% | 32% | 0% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | October 6–7, 2023 | 522 (V) | ± 4.3% | 40% | 31% | 16% | 13% |
| Emerson College | August 2–4, 2023 | 1,337 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 42% | 42% | – | 16% |
| Emerson College | August 2–4, 2023 | 1,337 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 36% | 29% | 21% | 15% |
| Noble Predictive Insights | July 13–17, 2023 | 1000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 40% | 36% | – | 24% |
| Noble Predictive Insights | July 13–17, 2023 | 1000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 33% | 25% | 24% | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | April 18–19, 2023 | 559 (V) | – | 43% | 33% | 15% | 9% |
Ruben Gallego vs. Jim Lamon vs. Kyrsten Sinema
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ruben Gallego (D) | Jim Lamon (R) | Kyrsten Sinema (I) | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | April 18–19, 2023 | 559 (V) | – | 43% | 27% | 16% | 14% |
Ruben Gallego vs. Brian Wright vs. Kyrsten Sinema
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ruben Gallego (D) | Brian Wright (R) | Kyrsten Sinema (I) | Undecided |
| Emerson College | August 2–4, 2023 | 1,337 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 41% | 38% | – | 21% |
| Emerson College | August 2–4, 2023 | 1,337 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 37% | 25% | 26% | 12% |

### Results

2024 United States Senate election in Arizona :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Democratic | Ruben Gallego | 1,676,335 | 50.06% | +0.10% |
| | Republican | Kari Lake | 1,595,761 | 47.65% | +0.04% |
| | Green | Eduardo Heredia Quintana | 75,868 | 2.27% | –0.14% |
| | Write-in | Write-in | 850 | 0.02% | – |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 3,348,814 | 100.0% | N/A |
| | Democratic gain from Independent | Democratic gain from Independent | Democratic gain from Independent | Democratic gain from Independent | Democratic gain from Independent |
On November 9, 2024, Decision Desk HQ projected that Gallego had won the Senate election in Arizona. On November 12, 2024, the Associated Press projected that Gallego had defeated Lake as well.

#### By congressional district

Gallego won five of nine congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans.
| District | Gallego | Lake | Representative elected |
| 1st | 52% | 47% | David Schweikert |
| 2nd | 45% | 53% | Eli Crane |
| 3rd | 73% | 24% | Ruben Gallego (118th Congress) |
| 3rd | 73% | 24% | Yassamin Ansari (119th Congress) |
| 4th | 56% | 41% | Greg Stanton |
| 5th | 43% | 55% | Andy Biggs |
| 6th | 51% | 46% | Juan Ciscomani |
| 7th | 63% | 33% | Raúl Grijalva |
| 8th | 45% | 53% | Debbie Lesko (118th Congress) |
| 8th | 45% | 53% | Abraham Hamadeh (119th Congress) |
| 9th | 38% | 60% | Paul Gosar |
* Republican — >15%
* Republican — +12.5−15%
* Republican — +10−12.5%
* Republican — +7.5−10%
* Republican — +5−7.5%
* Republican — +2.5−5%
* Republican — +0−2.5%
* Democratic — +0−2.5%
* Democratic — +2.5−5%
* Democratic — +5−7.5%
* Democratic — +7.5-10%
* Democratic — +10−12.5%
* Democratic — +12.5−15%  Democratic—+>15%

#### By county

| County | Ruben Gallego Democratic | Ruben Gallego Democratic | Kari Lake Republican | Kari Lake Republican | Various candidates Other parties | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Margin | Total |
| County | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | Total |
| Apache | 19,901 | 62.46% | 11,283 | 35.41% | 679 | 2.13% | 8,618 | 27.05% | 31,863 |
| Cochise | 23,347 | 40.17% | 33,184 | 57.10% | 1,585 | 2.73% | −9,837 | −16.93% | 58,116 |
| Coconino | 42,924 | 61.77% | 24,825 | 35.73% | 1,736 | 2.50% | 18,099 | 26.05% | 69,485 |
| Gila | 9,330 | 34.14% | 17,433 | 63.79% | 565 | 2.07% | −8,103 | −29.65% | 27,328 |
| Graham | 4,235 | 28.15% | 10,385 | 69.27% | 373 | 3.59% | −6,150 | −41.02% | 14,993 |
| Greenlee | 1,102 | 33.56% | 2,078 | 63.28% | 373 | 3.17% | −976 | −29.72% | 3,284 |
| La Paz | 2,292 | 30.52% | 4,998 | 66.56% | 219 | 2.92% | −2,706 | −36.04% | 7,509 |
| Maricopa | 1,045,766 | 51.50% | 940,465 | 46.31% | 44,417 | 2.19% | 105,301 | 5.19% | 2,030,648 |
| Mohave | 26,578 | 24.50% | 79,494 | 73.28% | 2,415 | 2.23% | −52,916 | −48.78% | 108,487 |
| Navajo | 22,173 | 43.93% | 27,218 | 53.92% | 1,085 | 2.15% | −5,045 | −9.99% | 50,476 |
| Pima | 298,751 | 59.07% | 193,021 | 38.17% | 13,970 | 2.76% | 105,730 | 20.91% | 505,742 |
| Pinal | 86,674 | 41.88% | 115,595 | 55.86% | 4,672 | 2.26% | −28,921 | −13.98% | 206,941 |
| Santa Cruz | 11,986 | 63.23% | 6,370 | 33.61% | 599 | 3.16% | 5,616 | 29.62% | 18,955 |
| Yavapai | 52,077 | 35.22% | 93,200 | 63.03% | 2,592 | 1.75% | −41,123 | −27.81% | 147,869 |
| Yuma | 29,199 | 43.50% | 36,212 | 53.95% | 1,707 | 2.54% | −7,013 | −10.45% | 67,118 |
| Totals | 1,676,335 | 50.06% | 1,595,761 | 47.65% | 76,618 | 2.29% | 80,574 | 2.41% | 3,348,814 |