# 2006 United States House of Representatives election ratings

The 2006 United States House of Representatives elections were held on November 7, 2006, with early voting taking place in some states in the weeks preceding that date. Voters chose representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. Non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and three of the four inhabited U.S. territories were also elected. These elections took place halfway through the second term of Republican President George W. Bush. The winners served in the 110th United States Congress, with seats apportioned among the states based on the 2000 United States census. On Election Day, Republicans had held a House majority since January 1995 as a result of the 2006 elections.

## Summary of analyses

Below is a table summarizing various non-partisan election analyses. Although the nomenclature varies slightly, the categories can be understood as follows: "Safe" — the race was not expected to become competitive. "Favored" — the race was not competitive, but might become competitive if new political factors intervened. "Leans" — the race was competitive, but one candidate had a clear advantage. "Tossup" — neither candidate had a clear advantage.
| Source | Safe Democratic | Democratic Favored | Leans Democratic | Tossup | Leans Republican | Republican Favored | Safe Republican |
| CQPolitics.com as of Nov 6 | 182 Democratic Seats | 16 Democratic seats 1 Republican seat | 5 Democratic seats 9 Republican seats | 23 Republican seats | 20 Republican seats | 22 Republican seats | 157 Republican seats |
| Cook Political Report as of Nov 6 | 182 Democratic Seats | 13 Democratic seats | 6 Democratic seats 5 Republican seats | 1 Democratic seat 38 Republican seats | 12 Republican seats | 13 Republican seats | 165 Republican seats |
| Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball as of Nov 6 (← and → show trends) | 193 Democratic seats | 6 Democratic seats 1→ 3 Republican seats | 4 Democratic seats 1→ 26 Republican seats ←5 | (none) | 31 Republican seats ←10 - 3→ | 10 Republican seats | 162 Republican seats |
| Majority Watch (final) as of Oct 30 | 198 seats | 24 seats | 18 seats | 2 seats | 10 seats | 6 seats | 177 seats |
| Rothenberg Political Report (← and → show trends) as of Nov. 6 | 197 Democratic seats | 1 Democratic seat 3 Republican seats | 1 Democratic seats 6 Republican seats | 3 Democratic seats ←3 37 Republican seats ←8 10→ | 3 Republican seats | 8 Republican seats | 166 Republican seats |
| Electoral-vote.com as of Nov. 6 | 203 Democratic seats 36 Republican seats | 203 Democratic seats 36 Republican seats | 203 Democratic seats 36 Republican seats | 1 Republican seat | 195 Republican seats | 195 Republican seats | 195 Republican seats |
| Ed Fitzgerald's survey of polls as of Nov. 6 | 227 seats | 227 seats | 227 seats | 4 seats | 204 seats | 204 seats | 204 seats |

## Election ratings

The following table rates the competitiveness of selected races from around the country according to noted political analysts. Races not included should be considered safe for the incumbent's party.
| District | CPVI | Incumbent | Previous result | Cook November 6, 2006 | Rothenberg November 6, 2006 | Sabato November 6, 2006 | RCP November 6, 2006 | CQ Politics November 7, 2006 | Winner |
| Arizona 1 | R+2 | Rick Renzi (R) | 58.6% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Tilt R | Lean R | Tossup | Rick Renzi (R) |
| Arizona 5 | R+4 | J. D. Hayworth (R) | 59.5% R | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | Tilt D (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Harry Mitchell (D) |
| Arizona 8 | R+1 | Jim Kolbe (R) (retiring) | 60.4% R | Lean D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Gabby Giffords (D) |
| California 4 | R+11 | John Doolittle (R) | 65.4% R | Lean R | Tilt R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | John Doolittle (R) |
| California 11 | R+3 | Richard Pombo (R) | 61.3% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | Tossup | Lean R | Jerry McNerney (D) |
| California 50 | R+5 | Brian Bilbray (R) | 49.3% R | Lean R | Likely R | Lean R | Safe R | Lean R | Brian Bilbray (R) |
| Colorado 3 | R+6 | John Salazar (D) | 50.5% D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | John Salazar (D) |
| Colorado 4 | R+9 | Marilyn Musgrave (R) | 51.0% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Tilt D (flip) | Lean R | Lean R | Marilyn Musgrave (R) |
| Colorado 5 | R+16 | Joel Hefley (R) (retiring) | 70.6% R | Lean R | Likely R | Lean R | Safe R | Likely R | Doug Lamborn (R) |
| Colorado 6 | R+10 | Tom Tancredo (R) | 59.7% R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | Tom Tancredo (R) |
| Colorado 7 | D+2 | Bob Beauprez (R) (retiring) | 54.7% R | Lean D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Ed Perlmutter (D) |
| Connecticut 2 | D+8 | Rob Simmons (R) | 54.2% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | Lean R | Lean R | Joe Courtney (D) |
| Connecticut 4 | D+5 | Chris Shays (R) | 52.4% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Chris Shays (R) |
| Connecticut 5 | D+4 | Nancy Johnson (R) | 59.8% R | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | Tilt D (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Chris Murphy (D) |
| Florida 8 | R+3 | Ric Keller (R) | 60.5% R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Ric Keller (R) |
| Florida 9 | R+4 | Michael Bilirakis (R) | 100% R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Gus Bilirakis (R) |
| Florida 13 | R+4 | Katherine Harris (R) (retiring) | 55.3% R | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Vern Buchanan (R) |
| Florida 16 | R+2 | Vacant | 68.0% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Tim Mahoney (D) |
| Florida 22 | D+4 | Clay Shaw (R) | 62.9% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | Lean R | Tossup | Ron Klein (D) |
| Georgia 8 | R+8 | Jim Marshall (D) | 62.9% D | Lean D | Tilt D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Jim Marshall (D) |
| Georgia 12 | D+2 | John Barrow (D) | 51.8% D | Likely D | Tilt D | Tilt D | Tossup | Lean D | John Barrow (D) |
| Idaho 1 | R+19 | Butch Otter (R) (retiring) | 69.5% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Tilt D (flip) | Lean R | Lean R | Bill Sali (R) |
| Illinois 6 | R+3 | Henry Hyde (R) (retiring) | 55.8% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Peter Roskam (R) |
| Illinois 8 | R+5 | Melissa Bean (D) | 51.7% D | Lean D | Tilt D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Melissa Bean (D) |
| Illinois 10 | D+4 | Mark Kirk (R) | 64.1% R | Likely R | Safe R | Lean R | Safe R | Likely R | Mark Kirk (R) |
| Illinois 17 | D+5 | Lane Evans (D) (retiring) | 60.7% D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Phil Hare (D) |
| Indiana 2 | R+4 | Chris Chocola (R) | 54.2% R | Tossup | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Joe Donnelly (D) |
| Indiana 3 | R+16 | Mark Souder (R) | 69.2% R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Mark Souder (R) |
| Indiana 7 | D+9 | Julia Carson (D) | 54.3% D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Julia Carson (D) |
| Indiana 8 | R+9 | John Hostettler (R) | 53.4% R | Tossup | Likely D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Brad Ellsworth (D) |
| Indiana 9 | R+7 | Mike Sodrel (R) | 49.4% R | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | Tilt D (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Baron Hill (D) |
| Iowa 1 | D+5 | Jim Nussle (R) (retiring) | 55.2% R | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Bruce Braley (D) |
| Iowa 2 | D+7 | Jim Leach (R) | 58.9% R | Likely R | Safe R | Lean R | Safe R | Likely R | Dave Loebsack (D) |
| Iowa 3 | D+1 | Leonard Boswell (D) | 55.2% D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Leonard Boswell (D) |
| Kansas 2 | R+7 | Jim Ryun (R) | 56.1% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt R | Safe R | Likely R | Nancy Boyda (D) |
| Kansas 3 | R+4 | Dennis Moore (D) | 54.8% D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Dennis Moore (D) |
| Kentucky 2 | R+13 | Ron Lewis (R) | 67.9% R | Lean R | Likely R | Lean R | Safe R | Lean R | Ron Lewis (R) |
| Kentucky 3 | D+2 | Anne Northup (R) | 60.3% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Tilt R | Tossup | Lean R | John Yarmuth (D) |
| Kentucky 4 | R+12 | Geoff Davis (R) | 54.4% R | Lean R | Tilt R | Tilt D (flip) | Lean R | Lean R | Geoff Davis (R) |
| Louisiana 2 | D+28 | William Jefferson (D) | 79.0% D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | William Jefferson (D) |
| Louisiana 3 | R+5 | Charlie Melançon (D) | 50.2% D | Lean D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Charlie Melançon (D) |
| Louisiana 7 | R+7 | Charles Boustany (R) | 55.0% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Charles Boustany (R) |
| Maryland 3 | D+7 | Ben Cardin (D) (retiring) | 63.4% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | John Sarbanes (D) |
| Maryland 6 | R+13 | Roscoe Bartlett (R) | 67.5% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Roscoe Bartlett (R) |
| Michigan 7 | R+2 | Joe Schwarz (R) (lost renomination) | 58.4% R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Tim Walberg (R) |
| Michigan 8 | R+2 | Mike Rogers (R) | 61.1% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Mike Rogers (R) |
| Minnesota 1 | R+1 | Gil Gutknecht (R) | 59.6% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt R | Lean R | Lean R | Tim Walz (D) |
| Minnesota 2 | R+3 | John Kline (R) | 56.4% R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | John Kline (R) |
| Minnesota 6 | R+5 | Mark Kennedy (R) (retiring) | 54.0% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt R | Lean R | Tossup | Michele Bachmann (R) |
| Nebraska 1 | R+11 | Jeff Fortenberry (R) | 54.2% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Lean R | Jeff Fortenberry (R) |
| Nebraska 3 | R+24 | Tom Osborne (R) (retiring) | 87.5% R | Lean R | Likely R | Tilt R | Safe R | Lean R | Adrian Smith (R) |
| Nevada 2 | R+8 | Jim Gibbons (R) (retiring) | 66.5% R | Lean R | Likely R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Dean Heller (R) |
| Nevada 3 | D+1 | Jon Porter (R) | 54.5% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Tilt R | Lean R | Lean R | Jon Porter (R) |
| New Hampshire 1 | Even | Jeb Bradley (R) | 63.4% R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Carol Shea-Porter (D) |
| New Hampshire 2 | D+3 | Charles Bass (R) | 58.3% R | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | Tilt D (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Paul Hodes (D) |
| New Jersey 5 | R+4 | Scott Garrett (R) | 57.6% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Scott Garrett (R) |
| New Jersey 7 | R+1 | Mike Ferguson (R) | 56.9% R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Safe R | Lean R | Mike Ferguson (R) |
| New Mexico 1 | D+2 | Heather Wilson (R) | 54.4% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Heather Wilson (R) |
| New York 3 | D+2 | Peter King (R) | 63.0% R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Peter King (R) |
| New York 13 | D+1 | Vito Fossella (R) | 59.0% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Vito Fossella (R) |
| New York 19 | R+1 | Sue Kelly (R) | 66.7% R | Lean R | Likely R | Tilt R | Lean R | Lean R | John Hall (D) |
| New York 20 | R+3 | John E. Sweeney (R) | 65.8% R | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | Tilt D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Kirsten Gillibrand (D) |
| New York 24 | R+1 | Sherwood Boehlert (R) (retiring) | 56.9% R | Lean D (flip) | Tilt D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Mike Arcuri (D) |
| New York 25 | D+3 | James T. Walsh (R) | 90.4% R | Lean R | Tilt R | Tilt R | Lean R | Lean R | James T. Walsh (R) |
| New York 26 | R+3 | Thomas M. Reynolds (R) | 55.6% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt R | Lean R | Lean D (flip) | Thomas M. Reynolds (R) |
| New York 29 | R+5 | Randy Kuhl (R) | 50.7% R | Lean R | Tilt R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Randy Kuhl (R) |
| North Carolina 8 | R+3 | Robin Hayes (R) | 55.5% R | Likely R | Safe R | Lean R | Safe R | Likely R | Robin Hayes (R) |
| North Carolina 11 | R+7 | Charles Taylor (R) | 54.9% R | Lean D (flip) | Tilt D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Heath Shuler (D) |
| North Carolina 13 | D+2 | Brad Miller (D) | 58.8% D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Brad Miller (D) |
| Ohio 1 | R+1 | Steve Chabot (R) | 59.8% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt R | Tossup | Tossup | Steve Chabot (R) |
| Ohio 2 | R+13 | Jean Schmidt (R) | 51.6% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Jean Schmidt (R) |
| Ohio 6 | Even | Ted Strickland (D) (retiring) | 100.0% D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Charlie Wilson (D) |
| Ohio 12 | R+1 | Pat Tiberi (R) | 62.0% R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Pat Tiberi (R) |
| Ohio 13 | D+6 | Sherrod Brown (D) (retiring) | 67.4% D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Betty Sutton (D) |
| Ohio 15 | R+1 | Deborah Pryce (R) | 60.0% R | Tossup | Lean D (flip) | Tilt D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Deborah Pryce (R) |
| Ohio 18 | R+6 | Vacant | 66.2% R | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Zack Space (D) |
| Oregon 5 | D+1 | Darlene Hooley (D) | 52.9% D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Darlene Hooley (D) |
| Pennsylvania 4 | R+3 | Melissa Hart (R) | 63.1% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt R | Lean R | Lean R | Jason Altmire (D) |
| Pennsylvania 6 | D+2 | Jim Gerlach (R) | 51.0% R | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Jim Gerlach (R) |
| Pennsylvania 7 | D+4 | Curt Weldon (R) | 58.8% R | Tossup | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Joe Sestak (D) |
| Pennsylvania 8 | D+3 | Mike Fitzpatrick (R) | 55.3% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt R | Lean R | Tossup | Patrick Murphy (D) |
| Pennsylvania 10 | R+8 | Don Sherwood (R) | 92.8% R | Tossup | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Chris Carney (D) |
| South Carolina 5 | R+6 | John Spratt (D) | 63.1% D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | John Spratt (D) |
| Texas 17 | R+18 | Chet Edwards (D) | 51.2% D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Chet Edwards (D) |
| Texas 22 | R+15 | Vacant | 55.2% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Nick Lampson (D) |
| Texas 23 | R+4 | Henry Bonilla (R) | 69.3% R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Safe R | Likely R | Ciro Rodriguez (D) |
| Utah 2 | R+17 | Jim Matheson (D) | 54.8% D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Jim Matheson (D) |
| Vermont at-large | D+8 | Bernie Sanders (I) (retiring) | 67.4% I | Lean D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Peter Welch (D) |
| Virginia 2 | R+6 | Thelma Drake (R) | 55.1% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt R | Lean R | Lean R | Thelma Drake (R) |
| Virginia 11 | R+5 | Frank Wolf (R) | 63.7% R | Likely R | Safe R | Lean R | Safe R | Likely R | Frank Wolf (R) |
| Washington 2 | D+3 | Rick Larsen (D) | 54.8% D | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Rick Larsen (D) |
| Washington 5 | R+7 | Cathy McMorris (R) | 59.7% R | Likely R | Safe R | Lean R | Safe R | Likely R | Cathy McMorris (R) |
| Washington 8 | D+2 | Dave Reichert (R) | 51.5% R | Lean R | Tilt R | Tilt R | Lean R | Tossup | Dave Reichert (R) |
| West Virginia 1 | R+6 | Alan Mollohan (D) | 67.8% D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Alan Mollohan (D) |
| West Virginia 2 | R+5 | Shelley Moore Capito (R) | 57.5% R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Shelley Moore Capito (R) |
| Wisconsin 8 | Even | Mark Green (R) (retiring) | 70.1% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt R | Lean R | Tossup | Steve Kagen (D) |
| Wyoming at-large | R+19 | Barbara Cubin (R) | 55.3% R | Tossup | Likely R | Tilt R | Safe R | Tossup | Barbara Cubin (R) |
| Overall | Overall | Overall | Overall | D - 207 R - 189 39 tossups | D - 220 R - 196 19 tossups | D - 233 R - 202 | D - 214 R - 205 16 tossups | D - 213 R - 199 23 tossups | D - 233 R - 202 |

## Polling map - November 6, 2006

The map below shows the latest polling information as of November 6, 2006, for House races. No party polls included. Darker colors indicate stronger support. Where no polls were available, last year's election results were used. If two polls tied for most recent, the longer poll was used.