# 2026 United States Senate election in Texas

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18th sp :
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Dallas–Fort Worth
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Houston
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San Antonio
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2025 :
Government :
vte :
The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Texas. Incumbent four-term Republican Senator John Cornyn, who was re-elected in 2020 is eligible to run for re-election to a fifth term in office.
Republicans have won every U.S. Senate election in Texas since 1988. Due to Donald Trump's strong performance in Texas in 2024, Cornyn is generally seen as a strong favorite to win re-election. However, Cornyn may face a competitive primary challenge from Ken Paxton.

## Republican primary
### Background

In the 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary, incumbent Senator John Cornyn is expected to seek a fifth term but may face a significant challenge from state Attorney General Ken Paxton. The two have clashed for years, with Paxton criticizing Cornyn for being insufficiently conservative, particularly over his support for U.S. aid to Ukraine and a bipartisan gun safety bill. Cornyn, in turn, has highlighted Paxton’s legal troubles and 2023 impeachment, in which Paxton was acquitted. Paxton has not yet announced his candidacy but is meeting with donors and voters. The race could become a key battle between the Texas GOP’s establishment and hardline conservative factions.

### Candidates
#### Declared

* John Cornyn, incumbent U.S. Senator (2002–present)
* Rennie Mann, president of the Richland Springs school board

#### Publicly expressed interest

* Bo French, chair of the Tarrant County Republican Party
* Wesley Hunt, U.S. representative from Texas's 38th congressional district (2023–present)
* Ken Paxton, Texas Attorney General (2015–present)

#### Potential

* Dawn Buckingham, Texas Land Commissioner (2023–present) (if Cornyn withdraws)
* Ronny Jackson, U.S. representative from Texas's 13th congressional district (2021–present)
* Michael McCaul, U.S. representative from Texas's 10th congressional district (2005–present) (if Cornyn withdraws)
* Beth Van Duyne, U.S. representative from Texas's 24th congressional district (2021–present) (if Cornyn withdraws)

### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | John Cornyn | Ronny Jackson | Ken Paxton | Chip Roy | Undecided |
| Victory Insights (R) | January 4–6, 2025 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 34% | – | 42% | – | 25% |
| CWS Research (R) | October 19–23, 2023 | 823 (RV) | ± 3.42% | 35% | 14% | – | 18% | 33% |
| CWS Research (R) | July 9–10, 2022 | 1,918 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 31% | – | 51% | – | 18% |

## General election
### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| Inside Elections | Solid R | January 17, 2025 |
| The Cook Political Report | Solid R | February 11, 2025 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely R | February 13, 2025 |