# Next Senedd election

The next Senedd election is due to be held by 7 May 2026 to elect 96 members to the Senedd (Welsh Parliament; Welsh: Senedd Cymru). It will be the seventh devolved general election since the Senedd (formerly the National Assembly for Wales) was established in 1999. If held in 2026 it will also be the first election following current reforms to the voting system, which would increase the size of the Senedd from 60 members to 96, adopting a party-list voting system, reducing the number of constituencies to sixteen, and shortening its term from five years to four. It will also be the second election since the Senedd changed its name in May 2020.

## Retiring members

The following MSs have announced their intention to not run for re-election:
| MS | Constituency/Region | First elected | Party | Date announced |
| Mark Drakeford | Cardiff West | 2011 | Welsh Labour | 9 August 2023 |
| Vaughan Gething | Cardiff South and Penarth | 2011 | Welsh Labour | 7 September 2024 |
| Lee Waters | Llanelli | 2016 | Welsh Labour | 24 October 2024 |
| Dawn Bowden | Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney | 2016 | Welsh Labour | 17 January 2025 |
| Mick Antoniw | Pontypridd | 2011 | Welsh Labour | 24 January 2025 |
| Joyce Watson | Mid and West Wales | 2007 | Welsh Labour | 25 January 2025 |
| Rebecca Evans | Gower | 2011 | Welsh Labour | 8 February 2025 |
| Julie Morgan | Cardiff North | 2011 | Welsh Labour | 11 February 2025 |
| Lesley Griffiths | Wrexham | 2007 | Welsh Labour | 14 February 2025 |
| John Griffiths | Newport East | 1999 | Welsh Labour | 17 February 2025 |
| Jane Hutt | Vale of Glamorgan | 1999 | Welsh Labour | 21 February 2025 |
| Julie James | Swansea West | 2011 | Welsh Labour | 21 February 2025 |
| Jenny Rathbone | Cardiff Central | 2011 | Welsh Labour | 21 February 2025 |

## Electoral system

In all prior elections since its establishment as the Welsh Assembly in 1999, the Senedd has been elected through the additional member system, under which 40 out of 60 seats were elected by the first past the post system from single-member constituencies (the same as those used for Westminster), while the remaining 20 were attributed regionally (in 5 regions of 4 seats) on the basis of a second vote for a closed party list of candidates. The additional member seats in each region were allocated from the lists by the D'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation.
Following the approval of the Senedd Reform Act, the size of the Senedd will be increased from 60 to 96 MSs, all elected through closed party list proportional representation (using the D'Hondt method). The elections will be organised in 16 six-member constituencies created by pairing up the 32 redrawn Westminster constituencies.
Although the new system would only be ready and used for elections held after 6 April 2026, to allow time for the new constituencies to be drawn up. The next election is due to be held on 7 May 2026.
Another proposed reform bill would have provided for mandatory "zipping" of male and female candidates in the list to ensure that for every party, half of the Members will be women. However, this bill was scrapped in September 2024.

### Constituencies

* Afan Ogwr Rhondda
* Bangor Conwy Môn
* Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni
* Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd
* Caerdydd Penarth
* Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf
* Casnewydd Islwyn
* Ceredigion Penfro
* Clwyd
* Fflint Wrecsam
* Gwynedd Maldwyn
* Gŵyr Abertawe
* Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg
* Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr
* Sir Fynwy Torfaen
* Sir Gaerfyrddin
| 2021 Senedd election result | 2021 Senedd election result | 2021 Senedd election result | 2021 Senedd election result | 2026 Senedd election result | 2026 Senedd election result |
| Constituency | Member | Region | Members | Constituency | Members |
| Aberconwy | Janet Finch-Saunders (Con) | North Wales | Carolyn Thomas (Lab) Mark Isherwood (Con) Sam Rowlands (Con) Llyr Gruffydd (Plaid) | Bangor Conwy Môn | TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD |
| Ynys Môn | Rhun ap Iorwerth (Plaid) | North Wales | Carolyn Thomas (Lab) Mark Isherwood (Con) Sam Rowlands (Con) Llyr Gruffydd (Plaid) | Bangor Conwy Môn | TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD |
| Clwyd West | Darren Millar (Con) | North Wales | Carolyn Thomas (Lab) Mark Isherwood (Con) Sam Rowlands (Con) Llyr Gruffydd (Plaid) | Clwyd | TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD |
| Delyn | Hannah Blythyn (Lab) | North Wales | Carolyn Thomas (Lab) Mark Isherwood (Con) Sam Rowlands (Con) Llyr Gruffydd (Plaid) | Clwyd | TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD |
| Vale of Clwyd | Gareth Davies (Con) | North Wales | Carolyn Thomas (Lab) Mark Isherwood (Con) Sam Rowlands (Con) Llyr Gruffydd (Plaid) | Clwyd | TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD |
| Alyn and Deeside | Jack Sargeant (Lab) | North Wales | Carolyn Thomas (Lab) Mark Isherwood (Con) Sam Rowlands (Con) Llyr Gruffydd (Plaid) | Fflint Wrecsam | TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD |
| Wrexham | Lesley Griffiths (Lab) | North Wales | Carolyn Thomas (Lab) Mark Isherwood (Con) Sam Rowlands (Con) Llyr Gruffydd (Plaid) | Fflint Wrecsam | TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD |
| Arfon | Siân Gwenllian (Plaid) | North Wales | Carolyn Thomas (Lab) Mark Isherwood (Con) Sam Rowlands (Con) Llyr Gruffydd (Plaid) | Gwynedd Maldwyn | TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD |
| Clwyd South | Ken Skates (Lab) | North Wales | Carolyn Thomas (Lab) Mark Isherwood (Con) Sam Rowlands (Con) Llyr Gruffydd (Plaid) | Gwynedd Maldwyn | TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD |
| Dwyfor Meirionnydd | Mabon ap Gwynfor (Plaid) | Mid and West Wales | Cefin Campbell (Plaid) Eluned Morgan (Lab) Joyce Watson (Lab) Jane Dodds (Lib Dem) | Gwynedd Maldwyn | TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD |
| Montgomeryshire | Russell George (Con) | Mid and West Wales | Cefin Campbell (Plaid) Eluned Morgan (Lab) Joyce Watson (Lab) Jane Dodds (Lib Dem) | Gwynedd Maldwyn | TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD |
| Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire | Samuel Kurtz (Con) | Mid and West Wales | Cefin Campbell (Plaid) Eluned Morgan (Lab) Joyce Watson (Lab) Jane Dodds (Lib Dem) | Ceredigion Penfro | TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD |
| Ceredigion | Elin Jones (Plaid) | Mid and West Wales | Cefin Campbell (Plaid) Eluned Morgan (Lab) Joyce Watson (Lab) Jane Dodds (Lib Dem) | Ceredigion Penfro | TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD |
| Preseli Pembrokeshire | Paul Davies (Con) | Mid and West Wales | Cefin Campbell (Plaid) Eluned Morgan (Lab) Joyce Watson (Lab) Jane Dodds (Lib Dem) | Ceredigion Penfro | TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD |
| Carmarthen East and Dinefwr | Adam Price (Plaid) | Mid and West Wales | Cefin Campbell (Plaid) Eluned Morgan (Lab) Joyce Watson (Lab) Jane Dodds (Lib Dem) | Sir Gaerfyrddin | TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD |
| Llanelli | Lee Waters (Lab) | Mid and West Wales | Cefin Campbell (Plaid) Eluned Morgan (Lab) Joyce Watson (Lab) Jane Dodds (Lib Dem) | Sir Gaerfyrddin | TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD |
| Brecon and Radnorshire | James Evans (Con) | Mid and West Wales | Cefin Campbell (Plaid) Eluned Morgan (Lab) Joyce Watson (Lab) Jane Dodds (Lib Dem) | Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd | TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD |
| Neath | Jeremy Miles (Lab) | South Wales West | Tom Giffard (Con) Altaf Hussain (Con) Sioned Williams (Plaid) Luke Fletcher (Plaid) | Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd | TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD |
| Gower | Rebecca Evans (Lab) | South Wales West | Tom Giffard (Con) Altaf Hussain (Con) Sioned Williams (Plaid) Luke Fletcher (Plaid) | Gŵyr Abertawe | TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD |
| Swansea East | Mike Hedges (Lab) | South Wales West | Tom Giffard (Con) Altaf Hussain (Con) Sioned Williams (Plaid) Luke Fletcher (Plaid) | Gŵyr Abertawe | TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD |
| Swansea West | Julie James (Lab) | South Wales West | Tom Giffard (Con) Altaf Hussain (Con) Sioned Williams (Plaid) Luke Fletcher (Plaid) | Gŵyr Abertawe | TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD |
| Aberavon | David Rees (Lab) | South Wales West | Tom Giffard (Con) Altaf Hussain (Con) Sioned Williams (Plaid) Luke Fletcher (Plaid) | Afan Ogwr Rhondda | TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD |
| Ogmore | Huw Irranca-Davies (Lab) | South Wales West | Tom Giffard (Con) Altaf Hussain (Con) Sioned Williams (Plaid) Luke Fletcher (Plaid) | Afan Ogwr Rhondda | TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD |
| Rhondda | Buffy Williams (Lab) | (South Wales Central) | | Afan Ogwr Rhondda | TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD |
| Bridgend | Sarah Murphy (Lab) | (South Wales West) | | Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg | TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD |
| Vale of Glamorgan | Jane Hutt (Lab) | South Wales Central | Andrew RT Davies (Con) Joel James (Con) Rhys ab Owen (Plaid) Heledd Fychan (Plaid) | Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg | TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD |
| Cardiff South and Penarth | Vaughan Gething (Lab) | South Wales Central | Andrew RT Davies (Con) Joel James (Con) Rhys ab Owen (Plaid) Heledd Fychan (Plaid) | Caerdydd Penarth | TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD |
| Cardiff West | Mark Drakeford (Lab) | South Wales Central | Andrew RT Davies (Con) Joel James (Con) Rhys ab Owen (Plaid) Heledd Fychan (Plaid) | Caerdydd Penarth | TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD |
| Cardiff Central | Jenny Rathbone (Lab) | South Wales Central | Andrew RT Davies (Con) Joel James (Con) Rhys ab Owen (Plaid) Heledd Fychan (Plaid) | Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf | TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD |
| Cardiff North | Julie Morgan (Lab) | South Wales Central | Andrew RT Davies (Con) Joel James (Con) Rhys ab Owen (Plaid) Heledd Fychan (Plaid) | Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf | TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD |
| Cynon Valley | Vikki Howells (Lab) | South Wales Central | Andrew RT Davies (Con) Joel James (Con) Rhys ab Owen (Plaid) Heledd Fychan (Plaid) | Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr | TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD |
| Pontypridd | Mick Antoniw (Lab) | South Wales Central | Andrew RT Davies (Con) Joel James (Con) Rhys ab Owen (Plaid) Heledd Fychan (Plaid) | Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr | TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD |
| Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney | Dawn Bowden (Lab) | South Wales East | Laura Anne Jones (Con) Natasha Asghar (Con) Peredur Owen Griffiths (Plaid) Delyth Jewell (Plaid) | Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr | TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD |
| Blaenau Gwent | Alun Davies (Lab) | South Wales East | Laura Anne Jones (Con) Natasha Asghar (Con) Peredur Owen Griffiths (Plaid) Delyth Jewell (Plaid) | Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni | TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD |
| Caerphilly | Hefin David (Lab) | South Wales East | Laura Anne Jones (Con) Natasha Asghar (Con) Peredur Owen Griffiths (Plaid) Delyth Jewell (Plaid) | Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni | TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD |
| Islwyn | Rhianon Passmore (Lab) | South Wales East | Laura Anne Jones (Con) Natasha Asghar (Con) Peredur Owen Griffiths (Plaid) Delyth Jewell (Plaid) | Casnewydd Islwyn | TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD |
| Newport East | John Griffiths (Lab) | South Wales East | Laura Anne Jones (Con) Natasha Asghar (Con) Peredur Owen Griffiths (Plaid) Delyth Jewell (Plaid) | Casnewydd Islwyn | TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD |
| Newport West | Jayne Bryant (Lab) | South Wales East | Laura Anne Jones (Con) Natasha Asghar (Con) Peredur Owen Griffiths (Plaid) Delyth Jewell (Plaid) | Casnewydd Islwyn | TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD |
| Monmouth | Peter Fox (Con) | South Wales East | Laura Anne Jones (Con) Natasha Asghar (Con) Peredur Owen Griffiths (Plaid) Delyth Jewell (Plaid) | Sir Fynwy Torfaen | TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD |
| Torfaen | Lynne Neagle (Lab) | South Wales East | Laura Anne Jones (Con) Natasha Asghar (Con) Peredur Owen Griffiths (Plaid) Delyth Jewell (Plaid) | Sir Fynwy Torfaen | TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD |

## Campaign

On 2 February 2025, Welsh Labour leader Eluned Morgan said she would be open to a coalition with Plaid Cymru after the election "if needs must". She ruled out a coalition with the right-wing populist party Reform UK, as she thought there was a "red line on that one". She rejected the suggestion put to her that Welsh Labour was under threat at the election, explaining that there is "an international shift going on at the moment and we've got several months now to make sure people understand what's at stake here". She also called Reform an "English focused party" with "nothing Welsh about" them. A day later, Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth similarly ruled out working with Reform, describing the two parties' worldviews as "fundamentally different."

## Opinion polling

| Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Lab | Con | Plaid Cymru | Green | Lib Dems | Reform | Others | Lead |
| 25–29 Nov 2024 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,121 | 23% | 19% | 24% | 6% | 5% | 23% | 1% | 1 |
| 4–24 Nov 2024 | Beaufort Research | Nation.Cymru | 500 | 27% | 18% | 17% | 6% | 6% | 24% | 2% | 3 |
| 18 Oct – 4 Nov 2024 | Survation | Reform UK | 2,006 | 29% | 18% | 20% | 7% | 7% | 19% | 1% | 9 |
| 6 Aug 2024 | Eluned Morgan becomes First Minister of Wales | Eluned Morgan becomes First Minister of Wales | Eluned Morgan becomes First Minister of Wales | Eluned Morgan becomes First Minister of Wales | Eluned Morgan becomes First Minister of Wales | Eluned Morgan becomes First Minister of Wales | Eluned Morgan becomes First Minister of Wales | Eluned Morgan becomes First Minister of Wales | Eluned Morgan becomes First Minister of Wales | Eluned Morgan becomes First Minister of Wales | Eluned Morgan becomes First Minister of Wales |
| 5–18 Jul 2024 | Welsh Election Study | N/A | 2,565 | 25% | 16% | 24% | 6% | 6% | 16% | 8% AWA on 7% Other on 1% | 1 |
| 27 Jun – 1 Jul 2024 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,072 | 27% | 18% | 23% | 5% | 6% | 18% | 3% | 4 |
| 5–7 Jun 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 960 | 36% | 22% | 18% | 6% | 6% | 11% | 2% AWA on 2% Other on 0% | 14 |
| 30 May – 3 Jun 2024 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,066 | 30% | 19% | 23% | 6% | 6% | 12% | 4% | 7 |
| 18–19 May 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 900 | 37% | 20% | 20% | 5% | 3% | 10% | 5% AWA on 5% Other on 0% | 17 |
| 8 May 2024 | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, implementing a new one-list electoral system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, implementing a new one-list electoral system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, implementing a new one-list electoral system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, implementing a new one-list electoral system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, implementing a new one-list electoral system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, implementing a new one-list electoral system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, implementing a new one-list electoral system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, implementing a new one-list electoral system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, implementing a new one-list electoral system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, implementing a new one-list electoral system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, implementing a new one-list electoral system by 2026. |
| 6 May 2021 | 2021 Senedd election (regional) | 2021 Senedd election (regional) | – | 36.2% | 25.1% | 20.7% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 1.1% | 8.2% | 11.1 |
| 6 May 2021 | 2021 Senedd election (constituency) | 2021 Senedd election (constituency) | – | 39.9% | 26.1% | 20.3% | 1.6% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 5.6% | 13.8 |

### Past opinion polling

The following polls used questions designed for the two forms of voting in previous Senedd elections, that are to be abolished in the next Senedd election planned for 2026.

#### Regional vote

| Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Lab | Con | Plaid Cymru | Green | Lib Dems | Reform | Others | Lead |
| 24 Jun 2024 | The Senedd Reform Act receives Royal assent, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act receives Royal assent, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act receives Royal assent, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act receives Royal assent, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act receives Royal assent, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act receives Royal assent, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act receives Royal assent, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act receives Royal assent, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act receives Royal assent, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act receives Royal assent, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act receives Royal assent, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. |
| 22–23 Apr 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 840 | 33% | 18% | 19% | 6% | 7% | 12% | 5% AWA on 4% Other on 1% | 14 |
| 23–24 Mar 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 878 | 32% | 16% | 18% | 9% | 7% | 11% | 7% AWA on 6% Other on 1% | 14 |
| 20 Mar 2024 | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales |
| 18 Feb 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 874 | 29% | 16% | 25% | 4% | 8% | 10% | 8% AWA on 7% Other on 1% | 4 |
| 24–26 Jan 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,100 | 34% | 19% | 21% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% AWA on 6% Other on 1% | 13 |
| 10–11 Dec 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,086 | 28% | 20% | 24% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 5% AWA on 4% Other on 1% | 4 |
| 12–13 Nov 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,100 | 32% | 21% | 18% | 9% | 6% | 7% | 6% AWA on 5% Other on 1% | 11 |
| 14–15 Oct 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 959 | 31% | 21% | 24% | 4% | 5% | 8% | 7% AWA on 7% Other on 0% | 10 |
| 16–17 Sep 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,172 | 35% | 21% | 18% | 6% | 12% | 5% | 3% AWA on 2% Other on 1% | 14 |
| 1–6 Sep 2023 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,051 | 34% | 16% | 20% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 12% AWA on 9% UKIP on 1% Other on 2% | 14 |
| 13–14 Aug 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,068 | 31% | 19% | 22% | 6% | 10% | 10% | 3% | 9 |
| 14–16 Jul 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,050 | 33% | 20% | 19% | 6% | 10% | 6% | 4% | 13 |
| 17–18 Jun 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,000 | 30% | 22% | 20% | 6% | 9% | 8% | 4% | 8 |
| 1 Jun 2023 | Rhun ap Iorwerth becomes Leader of Plaid Cymru | Rhun ap Iorwerth becomes Leader of Plaid Cymru | Rhun ap Iorwerth becomes Leader of Plaid Cymru | Rhun ap Iorwerth becomes Leader of Plaid Cymru | Rhun ap Iorwerth becomes Leader of Plaid Cymru | Rhun ap Iorwerth becomes Leader of Plaid Cymru | Rhun ap Iorwerth becomes Leader of Plaid Cymru | Rhun ap Iorwerth becomes Leader of Plaid Cymru | Rhun ap Iorwerth becomes Leader of Plaid Cymru | Rhun ap Iorwerth becomes Leader of Plaid Cymru | Rhun ap Iorwerth becomes Leader of Plaid Cymru |
| 12–17 May 2023 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,064 | 36% | 16% | 18% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% AWA on 5% UKIP on 1% Other on 1% | 18 |
| 14–15 May 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,058 | 30% | 21% | 24% | 4% | 10% | 8% | 4% | 6 |
| 15–17 Apr 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,251 | 32% | 22% | 23% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 2% | 9 |
| 3–7 Feb 2023 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,081 | 39% | 18% | 20% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 8% AWA on 6% Other on 2% | 19 |
| 25 Nov – 1 Dec 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,042 | 38% | 16% | 23% | 5% | 2% | 4% | 12% AWA on 8% UKIP on 2% Gwlad on 1% Other on 1% | 15 |
| 20–22 Sep 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,014 | 37% | 18% | 21% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 10% AWA on 7% UKIP on 2% Other on 1% | 16 |
| 12–16 Jun 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,020 | 31% | 21% | 24% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 10% AWA on 6% UKIP on 2% Gwlad on 1% Other on 1% | 7 |
| 25 Feb – 1 Mar 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,086 | 34% | 23% | 20% | 4% | 6% | 3% | 9% AWA on 6% UKIP on 1% Gwlad on 1% Other on 1% | 11 |
| 13–16 Dec 2021 | YouGov | ITV Wales | 1,009 | 35% | 22% | 19% | 7% | 3% | 5% | 9% AWA on 6% UKIP on 2% Other on 1% | 13 |
| 13–16 Sep 2021 | YouGov | ITV Wales | 1,057 | 33% | 26% | 19% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 11% AWA on 6% UKIP on 4% Other on 1% | 7 |
| 6 May 2021 | 2021 Senedd election | 2021 Senedd election | – | 36.2% | 25.1% | 20.7% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 1.1% | 8.2% | 11.1 |

##### By section

| Date conducted | Subsection | Sample size | Lab | Con | Plaid Cymru | Green | Lib Dems | Reform | Lead |
| November 2024 | South West Wales and the Valleys | 1000 (500) | 28 | 13 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 1 |
| November 2024 | Cardiff and South East Wales | 1000 (500) | 34 | 23 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 16 | 11 |
| November 2024 | North and Mid Wales | 1000 (500) | 21 | 18 | 24 | 8 | 4 | 24 | Tie |
| November 2024 | Male voters | 1000 (500) | 28 | 20 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 27 | 1 |
| November 2024 | Female voters | 1000 (500) | 27 | 15 | 26 | 6 | 5 | 20 | 1 |
| November 2024 | Aged 16-34 | 1000 (500) | 37 | 9 | 21 | 9 | 7 | 17 | 16 |
| November 2024 | Aged 34-54 | 1000 (500) | 32 | 15 | 21 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 11 |
| November 2024 | Aged over 55 | 1000 (500) | 21 | 22 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 29 | 7 |
| November 2024 | ABC1 | 1000 (500) | 28 | 23 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 5 |
| November 2024 | C2DE | 1000 (500) | 26 | 11 | 17 | 5 | 6 | 34 | 8 |
| November 2024 | Welsh speakers | 1000 (500) | 24 | 16 | 31 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 7 |
| November 2024 | Non-Welsh speakers | 1000 (500) | 29 | 18 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 26 | 3 |

#### Constituency vote

| Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Lab | Con | Plaid Cymru | Lib Dems | Green | Reform | Other | Lead |
| 8 May 2024 | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. |
| 22–23 Apr 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 840 | 37% | 21% | 22% | 4% | 3% | 10% | 3% AWA on 3% Other on 0% | 15 |
| 23–24 Mar 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 878 | 36% | 21% | 21% | 3% | 3% | 11% | 4% AWA on 3% Other on 1% | 15 |
| 20 Mar 2024 | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales |
| 18 Feb 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 874 | 34% | 21% | 19% | 4% | 3% | 13% | 6% AWA on 7% Other on 1% | 13 |
| 24–26 Jan 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,100 | 39% | 25% | 18% | 3% | 4% | 9% | 4% AWA on 3% Other on 1% | 14 |
| 10–11 Dec 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,086 | 41% | 22% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 7% | 3% AWA on 3% Other on 0% | 19 |
| 12–13 Nov 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,100 | 40% | 23% | 18% | 3% | 4% | 7% | 4% AWA on 3% Other on 1% | 17 |
| 14–15 Oct 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 959 | 37% | 27% | 18% | 4% | 3% | 6% | 5% AWA on 5% Other on 0% | 10 |
| 16–17 Sep 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,172 | 39% | 27% | 18% | 5% | 6% | 3% | 2% AWA on 1% Other on 1% | 12 |
| 1–6 Sep 2023 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,051 | 41% | 18% | 19% | 6% | 4% | 8% | 7% | 22 |
| 13–14 Aug 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,068 | 37% | 21% | 20% | 6% | 3% | 9% | 4% | 16 |
| 14–16 Jul 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,050 | 42% | 22% | 16% | 6% | 3% | 7% | 3% | 20 |
| 17–18 Jun 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,000 | 36% | 22% | 19% | 7% | 3% | 10% | 3% | 14 |
| 12–17 May 2023 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,064 | 40% | 18% | 17% | 7% | 5% | 8% | 4% | 22 |
| 14–15 May 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,058 | 38% | 23% | 20% | 7% | 3% | 7% | 2% | 15 |
| 15–17 Apr 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,251 | 41% | 21% | 20% | 5% | 4% | 8% | 2% | 20 |
| 3–7 Feb 2023 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,081 | 43% | 18% | 20% | 4% | 4% | 9% | 1% | 23 |
| 25 Nov – 1 Dec 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,042 | 44% | 17% | 20% | 6% | 3% | 7% | 4% | 24 |
| 20–22 Sep 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,014 | 40% | 20% | 22% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 18 |
| 12–16 Jun 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,020 | 37% | 24% | 21% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 13 |
| 25 Feb – 1 Mar 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,086 | 38% | 24% | 21% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 14 |
| 13–16 Dec 2021 | YouGov | ITV Wales | 1,009 | 40% | 23% | 17% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 4% | 17 |
| 13–16 Sep 2021 | YouGov | ITV Wales | 1,057 | 37% | 27% | 19% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 10 |
| 6 May 2021 | 2021 Senedd election | 2021 Senedd election | – | 39.9% | 26.1% | 20.3% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 5.6% | 13.8 |