# Next Catalan regional election

The next Catalan regional election will be held no later than Monday, 26 June 2028, to elect the 16th Parliament of the autonomous community of Catalonia. All 135 seats in the Parliament will be up for election.

## Overview
### Electoral system

The Parliament of Catalonia is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Catalonia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Catalan Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president. As a result of no regional electoral law having been approved since the re-establishment of Catalan autonomy, the electoral procedure comes regulated under Transitory Provision Fourth of the 1979 Statute, supplemented by the provisions within the national electoral law. Voting for the Parliament is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Catalonia and in full enjoyment of their political rights.
The 135 members of the Parliament of Catalonia are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of three percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Barcelona, Girona, Lleida and Tarragona, with each being allocated a fixed number of seats:
| Seats | Constituencies |
| 85 | Barcelona |
| 18 | Tarragona |
| 17 | Girona |
| 15 | Lleida |
In smaller constituencies, the use of the electoral method results in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies.

### Election date

The term of the Parliament of Catalonia expires four years after the date of its previous election, unless it is dissolved earlier. The regional president is required to call an election fifteen days prior to the date of expiry of parliament, with election day taking place within from forty to sixty days after the call. The previous election was held on 12 May 2024, which means that the legislature's term will expire on 12 May 2028. The election is required to be called no later than 27 April 2028, with it taking place up to the sixtieth day from the call, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Monday, 26 June 2028.
The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Catalonia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process and that dissolution does not occur before one year has elapsed since a previous one under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament is to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.

## Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the present time.
Current parliamentary composition :
| Groups | Groups | Parties | Parties | Legislators | Legislators |
| Groups | Groups | Parties | Parties | Seats | Total |
| | Socialists' and United to Advance Parliamentary Group | | PSC | 41 | 42 |
| | Socialists' and United to Advance Parliamentary Group | | Els Units | 1 | 42 |
| | Together's Parliamentary Group | | JxCat | 34 | 35 |
| | Together's Parliamentary Group | | DC | 1 | 35 |
| | Republican Left of Catalonia's Parliamentary Group | | ERC | 20 | 20 |
| | People's Party of Catalonia's Parliamentary Group | | PP | 15 | 15 |
| | Vox's Parliamentary Group in Catalonia | | Vox | 11 | 11 |
| | Commons Parliamentary Group | | CatComú | 6 | 6 |
| | Mixed Group | | CUP | 4 | 6 |
| | Mixed Group | | Aliança.cat | 2 | 6 |

## Parties and candidates

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.
Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:
| Candidacy | Candidacy | Parties and alliances | Leading candidate | Leading candidate | Ideology | Previous result | Previous result | Gov. | Ref. |
| Candidacy | Candidacy | Parties and alliances | Leading candidate | Leading candidate | Ideology | Votes (%) | Seats | Gov. | Ref. |
| | PSC–PSOE | List Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC–PSOE) United to Advance (Els Units) | | Salvador Illa | Social democracy | 27.96% | 42 | Y | |
| | Cat–Junts+ | List Together for Catalonia (JxCat) – Action for the Republic (AxR) – Left Movement of Catalonia (MESCat) – Independence Rally (RI.cat) – Catalan State (EC) – Republican Youth of Lleida (JRL) Democrats of Catalonia (DC) | | Carles Puigdemont | Catalan independence Sovereigntism Populism | 21.59% | 35 | N | |
| | ERC | List Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) | | Oriol Junqueras | Catalan independence Left-wing nationalism Social democracy | 13.66% | 20 | N | [5] [6] |
| | PP | List People's Party (PP) | | Alejandro Fernández | Conservatism Christian democracy | 11.00% | 15 | N | |
| | Vox | List Vox (Vox) | | Ignacio Garriga | Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism | 7.95% | 11 | N | |
| | Comuns Sumar | List Catalunya en Comú (CatComú) – Barcelona in Common (BComú) – United Left Catalonia (EUCat) – Greens Equo (Verds Equo) – Green Left (EV) Unite Movement (SMR) | | Jéssica Albiach | Left-wing populism Direct democracy Eco-socialism | 5.84% | 6 | N | |
| | CUP–DT | List Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP) – Forward–Socialist Organization of National Liberation (Endavant–OSAN) – Free People (PL–PPCC) Let's Reverse (Capgirem) | | Laia Estrada | Catalan independence Anti-capitalism Socialism | 4.09% | 4 | N | |
| | Aliança.cat | List Catalan Alliance (Aliança.cat) | | Sílvia Orriols | Catalan independence Anti-immigration | 3.77% | 2 | N | |

## Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

### Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 68 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Catalonia.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | | | | | | | | | | SALF | Lead |
| GESOP/CEO | 11 Oct–24 Nov 2024 | 2,000 | ? | 25.0– 29.0 39/42 | 17.0– 20.0 30/32 | 12.0– 15.0 20/21 | 9.0– 12.0 15/16 | 6.0– 9.0 10/11 | 6.0– 8.0 6/7 | 5.0– 7.0 5/6 | 4.0– 6.0 6/7 | – | – | 8.0– 9.0 |
| NC Report/La Razón | 5–12 Jul 2024 | 1,000 | 56.5 | 29.5 44/45 | 22.4 35/36 | 11.1 15/16 | 11.9 15/16 | 6.8 9 | 4.1 3 | 3.7 3 | 4.0 5 | 2.2 2 | 2.1 2 | 7.1 |
| GESOP/CEO | 10 Jun–8 Jul 2024 | 2,000 | ? | 28.0– 32.0 39/45 | 19.0– 23.0 31/36 | 13.0– 16.0 19/24 | 10.0– 13.0 13/18 | 6.0– 8.0 7/11 | 5.0– 7.0 5/8 | 3.0– 5.0 1/6 | 2.0– 4.0 1/4 | – | – | 9.0 |
| Hamalgama Métrica/Vozpópuli | 1–4 Jul 2024 | 1,000 | ? | 29.4 44 | 22.8 36 | 11.6 17 | 11.7 16 | 8.3 11 | 5.0 5 | 3.6 3 | 3.9 3 | – | – | 6.6 |
| Demoscopia y Servicios/The Objective | 22–24 Jun 2024 | 1,000 | ? | 28.8 43 | 22.7 36 | 11.9 17 | 11.7 16 | 6.6 10 | 5.1 5 | 3.5 3 | 4.0 5 | – | – | 6.1 |
| ElectoPanel/GMG | 9–13 Jun 2024 | 1,150 | ? | 30.9 43 | 23.4 36 | 11.2 16 | 12.2 15 | 8.0 11 | 5.1 5 | 3.5 3 | 4.5 6 | – | – | 7.5 |
| NC Report/La Razón | 8–10 Jun 2024 | 1,000 | 54.4 | 29.3 44/45 | 21.8 34/35 | 11.5 17/18 | 11.5 15/16 | 7.6 10/11 | 5.4 5 | 3.8 4 | 4.1 2/3 | – | 2.4 0/2 | 7.5 |
| 2024 EP election | 9 Jun 2024 | — | 43.5 | 30.6 (46) | 18.0 (30) | 14.8 (23) | 13.8 (20) | 6.2 (8) | 4.3 (4) | – | – | 4.6 (4) | 2.8 (0) | 12.6 |
| 2024 regional election | 12 May 2024 | — | 55.3 | 28.0 42 | 21.6 35 | 13.7 20 | 11.0 15 | 8.0 11 | 5.8 6 | 4.1 4 | 3.8 2 | – | – | 6.4 |

### Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | | | | | | | | | | ? | N | Lead |
| GESOP/CEO | 11 Oct–24 Nov 2024 | 2,000 | 21.1 | 12.1 | 12.5 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.1 | 15.0 | 9.0 | 8.6 |
| GESOP/CEO | 10 Jun–8 Jul 2024 | 2,000 | 23.7 | 12.4 | 14.1 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 12.5 | 8.2 | 9.6 |
| 2024 regional election | 12 May 2024 | — | 16.1 | 12.4 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | – | — | 42.1 | 3.7 |

### Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Government of Catalonia.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | | | | | | | | | Other/ None/ Not care | ? | Lead |
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Illa PSC | Puigdem. Junts | Junqueras ERC | Fernández PP | Garriga Vox | Albiach CatComú | Estrada CUP | Orriols AC | Other/ None/ Not care | ? | Lead |
| GESOP/CEO | 11 Oct–24 Nov 2024 | 2,000 | 18.1 | 10.8 | 3.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 41.0 | 24.0 | 7.3 |
| InvyMark/laSexta | 13–17 May 2024 | ? | 68.9 | 30.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1.1 | 38.9 |

### Predicted President

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood for each leader to become president of the Government of Catalonia.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | | | Other/ None/ Not care | ? | Lead |
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Illa PSC | Puigdem. Junts | Other/ None/ Not care | ? | Lead |
| GESOP/CEO | 10 Jun–8 Jul 2024 | 2,000 | 65.4 | 14.3 | 7.7 | 12.7 | 51.1 |