# 2002 German federal election

Federal elections were held in Germany on 22 September 2002 to elect the members of the 15th Bundestag. Incumbent Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's centre-left "red-green" governing coalition retained a narrow majority, and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) retained their status as the largest party in the Bundestag by three seats.

## Issues and campaign

Several issues dominated the campaign, with the opposition CDU/CSU attacking the government's performance on the economy which fell back into recession due to the Telecoms crash and the introduction of the euro, as well as campaigning on family values and against taxes (particularly on fuel).
In the run up to the election, the CSU/CDU held a huge lead in the opinion polls and Christian Social Union (CSU) leader Edmund Stoiber famously remarked that "... this election is like a football match where it's the second half and my team is ahead by 2–0."
However, event soon overtook Stoiber and the CDU/CSU campaign. The SPD and the Greens were helped by broad support for its opposition to an invasion of Iraq, continued media attention on the CDU funding scandal and by Gerhard Schröder's personal popularity relative to the opposition's candidate for chancellor, Stoiber.
The SPD was also boosted by Schröder's swift response to the August floods in eastern Germany, as compared to Stoiber, who was on vacation and responded late to the events.
With Guido Westerwelle, leader of the Free Democratic Party (FDP), the FDP presented a chancellor candidate for the first time, usually a title reserved for the main election leaders of the SPD and CDU/CSU. This was met with general derision and Westerwelle was excluded from the chancellor television debate, the first one, against which he unsuccessfully sued.

## Contesting parties

The table below lists parties represented in the 14th Bundestag:
| Name | Name | Name | Name | Ideology | Lead candidate | 1998 result | 1998 result |
| Name | Name | Name | Name | Ideology | Lead candidate | Votes (%) | Seats |
| | SPD | SPD | Social Democratic Party of Germany Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands | Social democracy | Gerhard Schröder | 40.9% | 298 / 669 |
| | CDU/CSU | CDU | Christian Democratic Union of Germany Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands | Christian democracy | Edmund Stoiber | 35.1% | 245 / 669 |
| | CDU/CSU | CSU | Christian Social Union in Bavaria Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern | Christian democracy | Edmund Stoiber | 6.2% | 245 / 669 |
| | Grüne | Grüne | Alliance 90/The Greens Bündnis 90/Die Grünen | Green politics | Joschka Fischer | 6.7% | 47 / 669 |
| | FDP | FDP | Free Democratic Party Freie Demokratische Partei | Classical liberalism | Guido Westerwelle | 6.2% | 43 / 669 |
| | PDS | PDS | Party of Democratic Socialism Partei des Demokratischen Sozialismus | Socialism | Gabi Zimmer | 5.1% | 36 / 669 |

## Opinion polls

After a brief honeymoon period, the CDU/CSU overtook the SPD in opinion polling in early 1999. This dramatically reversed after the CDU donations scandal, and the SPD established a strong lead which it held throughout 2000 and 2001. The CDU/CSU retook first place at the beginning of election year, and combined with a strong FDP, the opposition held a clear lead over the SPD–Green incumbents through mid-August. Schröder's response to the floods that month buoyed the SPD's numbers, and put the CDU/CSU, FDP, and PDS on a downward trend. Polling during the final week of the campaign gave a narrow edge of the SPD, but also indicated the FDP would finish ahead of the Greens. Meanwhile, it was unclear if the PDS would win proportional seats, leaving the final outcome on a knife's edge.
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | SPD | Union | Grüne | FDP | PDS | Others | Lead |
| 2005 federal election | 22 Sep 2002 | – | 38.5 | 38.5 | 8.6 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 0.01 |
| Forsa | 20 Sep 2002 | 2,021 | 38.5–39.5 | 37.0–38.0 | 6.5–7.5 | 7.0–8.0 | 4.0–4.5 | | 0.5–2.5 |
| Allensbach | 20 Sep 2002 | | 37.5 | 37.0 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 0.5 |
| Allensbach | 6–15 Sep 2002 | ~2,000 | 37.0 | 37.3 | 7.2 | 10.1 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 0.3 |
| Emnid | 14 Sep 2002 | 3,518 | 39 | 37 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Forsa | 9–14 Sep 2002 | 3,006 | 40 | 38 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | 9–12 Sep 2002 | 1,326 | 40.0 | 37.0 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.0 |
| Infratest dimap | 9–12 Sep 2002 | 2,000 | 38.5 | 36.0 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 |

## Results

Although most opposition parties gained seats, and the result was in doubt for most of the election night, the governing coalition retained a narrow majority. In particular, the SPD was able to partially offset declines in their vote share in the West with an increase in the East, with the PDS falling below both the 5% threshold and the 3-seat threshold, either of which is required to qualify a party for top-up seats. Consequently, the PDS held only two directly elected seats.
| Party | Party | Votes | % | Seats | Votes | % | Seats | Total seats | +/– |
| | Social Democratic Party | 18,488,668 | 38.52 | 80 | 20,059,967 | 41.93 | 171 | 251 | −47 |
| | Christian Democratic Union | 14,167,561 | 29.52 | 108 | 15,336,512 | 32.06 | 82 | 190 | −8 |
| | Christian Social Union | 4,315,080 | 8.99 | 15 | 4,311,178 | 9.01 | 43 | 58 | +11 |
| | Alliance 90/The Greens | 4,110,355 | 8.56 | 54 | 2,693,794 | 5.63 | 1 | 55 | +8 |
| | Free Democratic Party | 3,538,815 | 7.37 | 47 | 2,752,796 | 5.75 | 0 | 47 | +4 |
| | Party of Democratic Socialism | 1,916,702 | 3.99 | 0 | 2,079,203 | 4.35 | 2 | 2 | −34 |
| | Party for a Rule of Law Offensive | 400,476 | 0.83 | 0 | 120,330 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 | New |
| | The Republicans | 280,671 | 0.58 | 0 | 55,947 | 0.12 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| | National Democratic Party | 215,232 | 0.45 | 0 | 103,209 | 0.22 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| | Human Environment Animal Protection Party | 159,655 | 0.33 | 0 | 8,858 | 0.02 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| | The Grays – Gray Panthers | 114,224 | 0.24 | 0 | 75,490 | 0.16 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| | Party of Bible-abiding Christians | 101,645 | 0.21 | 0 | 71,106 | 0.15 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| | Ecological Democratic Party | 56,898 | 0.12 | 0 | 56,593 | 0.12 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| | Feminist Party | 36,832 | 0.08 | 0 | 2,264 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| | Family Party | 30,045 | 0.06 | 0 | 15,138 | 0.03 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| | Bürgerrechtsbewegung Solidarität | 16,958 | 0.04 | 0 | 22,531 | 0.05 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| | Christian Centre | 15,440 | 0.03 | 0 | 2,413 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| | Bavaria Party | 9,379 | 0.02 | 0 | 6,757 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| | Party for Pension Justice and Family | 7,499 | 0.02 | 0 | 4,363 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | New |
| | Departure for Civil Rights, Freedom and Health | 4,697 | 0.01 | 0 | 2,895 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | New |
| | Centre Party | 3,127 | 0.01 | 0 | 1,823 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| | Humanist Party | 2,485 | 0.01 | 0 | 1,385 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| | The Violets | 2,412 | 0.01 | 0 | 840 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | New |
| | Communist Party of Germany | 1,624 | 0.00 | 0 | 686 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| | German Social Union | | | | 6,003 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| | German Communist Party | | | | 3,953 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| | Freedom Party | | | | 2,003 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| | Alliance for Germany | | | | 571 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| | Independents and voter groups | | | | 43,116 | 0.09 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | Total | 47,996,480 | 100.00 | 304 | 47,841,724 | 100.00 | 299 | 603 | −66 |
| Valid votes | Valid votes | 47,996,480 | 98.79 | | 47,841,724 | 98.47 | | | |
| Invalid/blank votes | Invalid/blank votes | 586,281 | 1.21 | | 741,037 | 1.53 | | | |
| Total votes | Total votes | 48,582,761 | 100.00 | | 48,582,761 | 100.00 | | | |
| Registered voters/turnout | Registered voters/turnout | 61,432,868 | 79.08 | | 61,432,868 | 79.08 | | | |
| Source: Bundeswahlleiter ||||||||||

### Results by state

Second vote (Zweitstimme, or votes for party list)
| State results in % | SPD | CDU/CSU | GRÜNE | FDP | PDS | all others |
| Baden-Württemberg | 33.5 | 42.8 | 11.4 | 7.8 | 1.0 | 3.5 |
| Bavaria | 26.1 | 58.6 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 0.7 | 2.5 |
| Berlin | 36.6 | 25.9 | 14.6 | 6.6 | 11.4 | 4.9 |
| Brandenburg | 46.4 | 22.3 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 17.2 | 3.8 |
| Bremen | 48.6 | 24.6 | 15.0 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 2.9 |
| Hamburg | 42.0 | 28.1 | 16.2 | 6.8 | 2.1 | 4.8 |
| Hesse | 39.7 | 37.1 | 10.7 | 8.2 | 1.3 | 3.0 |
| Mecklenburg-Vorpommern | 41.7 | 30.3 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 16.3 | 2.8 |
| Lower Saxony | 47.8 | 34.5 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 1.0 | 2.3 |
| North Rhine-Westphalia | 43.0 | 35.1 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 1.2 | 2.4 |
| Rhineland-Palatinate | 38.2 | 40.3 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 1.0 | 3.3 |
| Saarland | 46.0 | 35.0 | 7.6 | 6.4 | 1.4 | 3.6 |
| Saxony | 33.3 | 33.6 | 4.6 | 7.3 | 16.2 | 4.9 |
| Saxony-Anhalt | 43.2 | 29.0 | 3.4 | 7.6 | 14.4 | 2.4 |
| Schleswig-Holstein | 42.9 | 36.0 | 9.4 | 8.0 | 1.3 | 2.4 |
| Thuringia | 39.9 | 29.4 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 17.0 | 3.5 |
* SPD vote
* CDU/CSU vote
* Green vote
* FDP vote
* PDS vote

#### Constituency seats

| State | Total seats | Seats won | Seats won | Seats won | Seats won | Seats won |
| State | Total seats | SPD | CDU | CSU | PDS | Grüne |
| Baden-Württemberg | 37 | 7 | 30 | | | |
| Bavaria | 44 | 1 | | 43 | | |
| Berlin | 12 | 9 | | | 2 | 1 |
| Brandenburg | 10 | 10 | | | | |
| Bremen | 2 | 2 | | | | |
| Hamburg | 6 | 6 | | | | |
| Hesse | 21 | 17 | 4 | | | |
| Lower Saxony | 29 | 25 | 4 | | | |
| Mecklenburg-Vorpommern | 7 | 5 | 2 | | | |
| North Rhine-Westphalia | 64 | 45 | 19 | | | |
| Rhineland-Palatinate | 15 | 7 | 8 | | | |
| Saarland | 4 | 4 | | | | |
| Saxony | 17 | 4 | 13 | | | |
| Saxony-Anhalt | 10 | 10 | | | | |
| Schleswig-Holstein | 11 | 10 | 1 | | | |
| Thuringia | 10 | 9 | 1 | | | |
| Total | 299 | 171 | 82 | 43 | 2 | 1 |

#### List seats

| State | Total seats | Seats won | Seats won | Seats won | Seats won | Seats won |
| State | Total seats | CDU | SPD | Grüne | FDP | CSU |
| Baden-Württemberg | 39 | 4 | 20 | 9 | 6 | |
| Bavaria | 51 | | 25 | 7 | 4 | 15 |
| Berlin | 11 | 6 | | 3 | 2 | |
| Brandenburg | 6 | 4 | | 1 | 1 | |
| Bremen | 2 | 1 | | 1 | | |
| Hamburg | 7 | 4 | | 2 | 1 | |
| Hesse | 23 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 4 | |
| Lower Saxony | 34 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 5 | |
| Mecklenburg-Vorpommern | 3 | 2 | | | 1 | |
| North Rhine-Westphalia | 70 | 30 | 15 | 12 | 13 | |
| Rhineland-Palatinate | 15 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | |
| Saarland | 5 | 3 | | 1 | 1 | |
| Saxony | 12 | | 8 | 2 | 2 | |
| Saxony-Anhalt | 8 | 6 | | 1 | 1 | |
| Schleswig-Holstein | 11 | 7 | | 2 | 2 | |
| Thuringia | 7 | 5 | | 1 | 1 | |
| Total | 304 | 108 | 80 | 54 | 47 | 15 |

## Post-election

The coalition between the SPD and the Greens continued in government, with Schröder as chancellor. However, due to the slim majority in the Bundestag, the governing coalition was not stable.