# 2024 United States presidential election in Arkansas

"none" is preferred when the title is already sufficiently detailed; see [[WP:SDNONE]]
Elections in Arkansas :
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2024 :
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Issue 5 :
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vte :
The 2024 United States presidential election in Arkansas took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Arkansas voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Arkansas has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.
Trump easily carried the state for the third time in a row in 2024, this time by a 30.64% margin, the largest since 1972.

## Primary elections
### Democratic primary

The Arkansas Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
Arkansas Democratic primary, March 5, 2024 :
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | Actual delegate count | Actual delegate count |
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Bound | Unbound | Total |
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 71,978 | 88.5% | 31 | | |
| Marianne Williamson | 3,883 | 4.8% | | | |
| Dean Phillips | 2,346 | 2.9% | | | |
| Stephen Lyons | 1,442 | 1.8% | | | |
| Armando Perez-Serrato | 879 | 1.1% | | | |
| Frankie Lozada | 786 | 1.0% | | | |
| Total: | 81,314 | 100.00% | 37 | | 37 |

### Republican primary

The Arkansas Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
Arkansas Republican primary, March 5, 2024 :
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | Actual delegate count | Actual delegate count |
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Bound | Unbound | Total |
| Donald Trump | 204,898 | 76.89% | 39 | | 39 |
| Nikki Haley | 49,085 | 18.42% | 1 | | 1 |
| Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) | 7,377 | 2.77% | | | |
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 3,162 | 1.19% | | | |
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 860 | 0.32% | | | |
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 600 | 0.23% | | | |
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 183 | 0.07% | | | |
| Doug Burgum (withdrawn) | 157 | 0.06% | | | |
| David Stuckenberg | 151 | 0.06% | | | |
| Total: | 266,473 | 100.00% | 40 | | 40 |

## General election
### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| Cook Political Report | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill | Safe R | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist | Safe R | June 12, 2024 |
| 538 | Solid R | June 11, 2024 |
| RCP | Solid R | June 26, 2024 |
| NBC News | Safe R | October 6, 2024 |

### Polling

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Kamala Harris Democratic | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent | Cornel West Independent | Jill Stein Green | Chase Oliver Libertarian | Other / Undecided |
| Hendrix College | September 5–6, 2024 | 696 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 55% | 40% | 1% | – | 0% | 1% | 1% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Other / Undecided |
| | July 21, 2024 | Joe Biden withdraws from the race. | Joe Biden withdraws from the race. | Joe Biden withdraws from the race. | Joe Biden withdraws from the race. | Joe Biden withdraws from the race. |
| John Zogby Strategies | April 13–21, 2024 | 385 (LV) | – | 48% | 42% | 10% |
| Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 435 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 7.7% | 58% | 33% | 9% |
Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent | Other / Undecided |
| John Zogby Strategies | April 13–21, 2024 | 385 (LV) | – | 44% | 42% | 14% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent | Joe Biden Democratic | Other / Undecided |
| John Zogby Strategies | April 13–21, 2024 | 385 (LV) | – | 53% | 35% | 12% |
Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ron DeSantis Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Other / Undecided |
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 7.7% | 49% | 31% | 20% |

### Results

2024 United States presidential election in Arkansas :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Republican | Donald TrumpJD Vance | 759,241 | 64.20% | +1.80% |
| | Democratic | Kamala HarrisTim Walz | 396,905 | 33.56% | −1.22% |
| | Independent | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (withdrawn)Nicole Shanahan (withdrawn) | 13,255 | 1.12% | N/A |
| | Libertarian | Chase OliverMike ter Maat | 5,715 | 0.48% | −0.60% |
| | Green | Jill SteinButch Ware | 4,275 | 0.36% | +0.12% |
| | American Solidarity | Peter SonskiLauren Onak | 2,141 | 0.18% | +0.04% |
| | Prohibition | Michael WoodJohn Pietrowski | 1,144 | 0.10% | N/A |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 1,182,676 | 100.00% | N/A |

#### By county

| County | Donald Trump Republican | Donald Trump Republican | Kamala Harris Democratic | Kamala Harris Democratic | Various candidates Other parties | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Margin | Total |
| County | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | Total |
| Arkansas | 3,951 | 71.23% | 1,503 | 27.10% | 93 | 1.68% | 2,448 | 44.13% | 5,547 |
| Ashley | 5,145 | 73.19% | 1,774 | 25.23% | 111 | 1.58% | 3,371 | 47.96% | 7,030 |
| Baxter | 16,253 | 77.57% | 4,341 | 20.72% | 360 | 1.72% | 11,912 | 56.85% | 20,954 |
| Benton | 79,907 | 62.14% | 45,231 | 35.17% | 3,457 | 2.69% | 34,676 | 26.97% | 128,595 |
| Boone | 13,968 | 81.63% | 2,854 | 16.68% | 290 | 1.69% | 11,114 | 64.95% | 17,112 |
| Bradley | 2,213 | 68.96% | 961 | 29.95% | 35 | 1.09% | 1,252 | 39.01% | 3,209 |
| Calhoun | 1,674 | 80.02% | 379 | 18.12% | 39 | 1.86% | 1,295 | 61.90% | 2,092 |
| Carroll | 7,470 | 64.74% | 3,812 | 33.04% | 256 | 2.22% | 3,658 | 31.70% | 11,538 |
| Chicot | 1,658 | 47.51% | 1,796 | 51.46% | 36 | 1.03% | -138 | -3.95% | 3,490 |
| Clark | 4,526 | 59.11% | 2,959 | 38.64% | 172 | 2.25% | 1,567 | 20.47% | 7,657 |
| Clay | 3,968 | 79.89% | 907 | 18.26% | 92 | 1.85% | 3,061 | 61.63% | 4,967 |
| Cleburne | 10,595 | 83.17% | 1,941 | 15.24% | 203 | 1.59% | 8,654 | 67.93% | 12,739 |
| Cleveland | 2,804 | 83.11% | 521 | 15.53% | 46 | 1.36% | 2,280 | 67.58% | 3,374 |
| Columbia | 5,367 | 67.59% | 2,466 | 31.06% | 107 | 1.35% | 2,901 | 36.53% | 7,940 |
| Conway | 5,893 | 69.00% | 2,449 | 28.67% | 199 | 2.33% | 3,444 | 40.33% | 8,541 |
| Craighead | 25,152 | 67.54% | 11,210 | 30.10% | 880 | 2.36% | 13,942 | 37.44% | 37,242 |
| Crawford | 18,615 | 78.10% | 4,753 | 19.94% | 466 | 1.96% | 13,862 | 58.16% | 23,834 |
| Crittenden | 7,028 | 47.87% | 7,362 | 50.15% | 291 | 1.98% | -334 | -2.28% | 14,681 |
| Cross | 4,753 | 72.74% | 1,642 | 25.13% | 139 | 2.13% | 3,111 | 47.61% | 6,534 |
| Dallas | 1,482 | 63.77% | 798 | 34.34% | 44 | 1.89% | 684 | 29.43% | 2,324 |
| Desha | 1,805 | 51.50% | 1,638 | 46.73% | 62 | 1.77% | 167 | 4.77% | 3,505 |
| Drew | 4,203 | 66.03% | 2,050 | 32.21% | 112 | 1.76% | 2,153 | 33.82% | 6,365 |
| Faulkner | 35,357 | 64.92% | 17,752 | 32.59% | 1,356 | 2.49% | 17,605 | 32.33% | 54,465 |
| Franklin | 5,582 | 80.07% | 1,232 | 17.67% | 157 | 2.25% | 4,350 | 62.40% | 6,971 |
| Fulton | 4,040 | 80.11% | 906 | 17.97% | 97 | 1.92% | 3,134 | 62.14% | 5,043 |
| Garland | 28,359 | 67.00% | 13,015 | 30.75% | 953 | 2.25% | 15,344 | 36.25% | 42,327 |
| Grant | 6,755 | 83.62% | 1,192 | 14.76% | 131 | 1.62% | 5,563 | 68.86% | 8,078 |
| Greene | 12,617 | 79.75% | 2,935 | 18.55% | 268 | 1.69% | 9,682 | 61.20% | 15,820 |
| Hempstead | 4,193 | 68.86% | 1,776 | 29.17% | 120 | 1.97% | 2,417 | 39.69% | 6,089 |
| Hot Spring | 9,226 | 75.11% | 2,818 | 22.94% | 239 | 1.95% | 6,408 | 52.17% | 12,283 |
| Howard | 3,246 | 72.57% | 1,158 | 25.89% | 69 | 1.54% | 2,088 | 46.68% | 4,473 |
| Independence | 11,023 | 78.67% | 2,689 | 19.19% | 299 | 2.13% | 8,334 | 59.48% | 14,011 |
| Izard | 4,854 | 81.92% | 949 | 16.02% | 122 | 2.06% | 3,905 | 65.90% | 5,925 |
| Jackson | 3,509 | 73.49% | 1,183 | 24.77% | 83 | 1.74% | 2,326 | 48.72% | 4,775 |
| Jefferson | 8,468 | 39.19% | 12,802 | 59.25% | 338 | 1.56% | -4,334 | -20.06% | 21,608 |
| Johnson | 6,766 | 74.69% | 2,107 | 23.26% | 186 | 2.05% | 4,659 | 51.43% | 9,059 |
| Lafayette | 1,589 | 68.34% | 698 | 30.02% | 38 | 1.63% | 891 | 38.32% | 2,325 |
| Lawrence | 4,608 | 80.96% | 965 | 16.95% | 119 | 2.09% | 3,643 | 64.01% | 5,692 |
| Lee | 1,181 | 46.87% | 1,270 | 50.40% | 69 | 2.74% | -89 | -3.53% | 2,520 |
| Lincoln | 2,502 | 74.20% | 813 | 24.11% | 57 | 1.69% | 1,689 | 50.09% | 3,372 |
| Little River | 3,744 | 76.42% | 1,084 | 22.13% | 71 | 1.45% | 2,660 | 54.29% | 4,899 |
| Logan | 6,567 | 80.04% | 1,464 | 17.84% | 174 | 2.12% | 5,103 | 62.20% | 8,205 |
| Lonoke | 23,225 | 75.85% | 6,790 | 22.18% | 605 | 1.98% | 16,435 | 53.67% | 30,620 |
| Madison | 5,885 | 78.46% | 1,491 | 19.88% | 125 | 1.67% | 4,394 | 58.58% | 7,501 |
| Marion | 6,230 | 79.35% | 1,501 | 19.12% | 120 | 1.53% | 4,729 | 60.23% | 7,851 |
| Miller | 11,842 | 74.94% | 3,769 | 23.85% | 192 | 1.21% | 8,073 | 51.09% | 15,803 |
| Mississippi | 6,963 | 64.97% | 3,574 | 33.35% | 180 | 1.68% | 3,389 | 31.62% | 10,717 |
| Monroe | 1,385 | 56.93% | 1,002 | 41.18% | 46 | 1.89% | 383 | 15.75% | 2,433 |
| Montgomery | 2,987 | 80.58% | 645 | 17.40% | 75 | 2.02% | 2,342 | 63.18% | 3,707 |
| Nevada | 2,002 | 68.87% | 849 | 29.21% | 56 | 1.93% | 1,153 | 39.66% | 2,907 |
| Newton | 3,063 | 81.25% | 644 | 17.08% | 63 | 1.67% | 2,419 | 64.17% | 3,770 |
| Ouachita | 5,056 | 58.61% | 3,412 | 39.55% | 158 | 1.83% | 1,644 | 19.06% | 8,626 |
| Perry | 3,559 | 77.64% | 923 | 20.14% | 102 | 2.23% | 2,636 | 57.50% | 4,584 |
| Phillips | 2,098 | 42.49% | 2,754 | 55.77% | 86 | 1.74% | -656 | -13.28% | 4,938 |
| Pike | 3,746 | 85.96% | 560 | 12.85% | 52 | 1.19% | 3,186 | 73.11% | 4,358 |
| Poinsett | 5,731 | 80.96% | 1,235 | 17.45% | 113 | 1.60% | 4,496 | 63.51% | 7,079 |
| Polk | 6,987 | 84.30% | 1,145 | 13.82% | 156 | 1.88% | 5,842 | 70.48% | 8,288 |
| Pope | 18,118 | 74.90% | 5,487 | 22.68% | 586 | 2.42% | 12,631 | 52.22% | 24,191 |
| Prairie | 2,628 | 82.13% | 524 | 16.38% | 48 | 1.50% | 2,104 | 65.75% | 3,200 |
| Pulaski | 57,977 | 37.67% | 92,038 | 59.79% | 3,909 | 2.54% | -34,061 | -22.12% | 153,924 |
| Randolph | 5,367 | 80.88% | 1,138 | 17.15% | 131 | 1.97% | 4,229 | 63.73% | 6,636 |
| St. Francis | 2,909 | 48.65% | 2,953 | 49.39% | 117 | 1.96% | -44 | -0.74% | 5,979 |
| Saline | 39,736 | 68.98% | 16,609 | 28.83% | 1,264 | 2.19% | 23,127 | 40.15% | 57,609 |
| Scott | 2,913 | 86.08% | 425 | 12.56% | 46 | 1.36% | 2,488 | 73.42% | 3,384 |
| Searcy | 3,305 | 85.42% | 511 | 13.21% | 53 | 1.37% | 2,794 | 72.21% | 3,869 |
| Sebastian | 30,719 | 67.59% | 13,652 | 30.04% | 1,081 | 2.38% | 17,067 | 37.55% | 45,452 |
| Sevier | 3,772 | 80.02% | 862 | 18.29% | 80 | 1.70% | 2,910 | 61.73% | 4,714 |
| Sharp | 5,978 | 80.38% | 1,316 | 17.70% | 143 | 1.92% | 4,662 | 62.68% | 7,437 |
| Stone | 4,808 | 79.73% | 1,089 | 18.06% | 133 | 2.21% | 3,719 | 61.67% | 6,030 |
| Union | 10,196 | 66.00% | 5,019 | 32.49% | 233 | 1.51% | 5,177 | 33.51% | 15,448 |
| Van Buren | 6,023 | 79.03% | 1,437 | 18.86% | 161 | 2.11% | 4,586 | 60.17% | 7,621 |
| Washington | 50,243 | 51.71% | 43,779 | 45.06% | 3,136 | 3.23% | 6,464 | 6.65% | 97,158 |
| White | 24,514 | 79.50% | 5,641 | 18.29% | 682 | 2.21% | 18,873 | 61.21% | 30,837 |
| Woodruff | 1,513 | 65.27% | 760 | 32.79% | 45 | 1.94% | 753 | 32.48% | 2,318 |
| Yell | 5,147 | 79.47% | 1,213 | 18.73% | 117 | 1.81% | 3,934 | 60.74% | 6,477 |
| Totals | 759,241 | 64.20% | 396,905 | 33.56% | 26,530 | 2.24% | 362,336 | 30.64% | 1,182,676 |

#### Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

* Desha (largest municipality: Dumas)
* Democratic — +0-2.5%
* Republican — +0-2.5%
* Republican — +2.5-5%
* Republican — +5-7.5%
* Republican — +7.5-10%
* Democratic  Hold Republican  Hold  Gain from Democratic

#### By congressional district

Trump won all four congressional districts.
| District | Trump | Harris | Representative |
| 1st | 71.71% | 26.37% | Rick Crawford |
| 2nd | 56.60% | 40.99% | French Hill |
| 3rd | 61.09% | 36.18% | Steve Womack |
| 4th | 69.05% | 29.11% | Bruce Westerman |

## Analysis

Although former Democratic President Bill Clinton hails from the state and comfortably won it in both of his victories (1992 and 1996), Arkansas is a Southern state in the Bible Belt that has trended strongly towards the Republican Party in the 21st century, with Al Gore (from neighboring Tennessee) losing the state in 2000 by 5.45%. The last Democratic presidential candidate to come within single digits of carrying Arkansas, or even win more than 40% of the state vote, was John Kerry in 2004. The state's rightward shift continued under Barack Obama, leading to Arkansas becoming a Republican stronghold at the presidential level. In 2008, Obama became the first Democrat to win without carrying Arkansas despite decisively winning nationwide.
The GOP's popularity in Arkansas has become so pronounced that the state turned sharply against former First Lady of Arkansas Hillary Clinton in 2016, favoring Republican Donald Trump by 26.9%. Trump easily won the state again by 27.6% in 2020. In addition, Republicans have held all statewide elected positions in Arkansas since 2015.
Trump became the first Republican to carry the plurality-Black Delta county of Desha in a presidential election since landslide victor Richard Nixon in 1972, when he carried every county in the state. Trump's success in Desha, as well as his narrowed margin in other Delta region counties, was partially attributed to a decreased turnout rate in the traditionally Democratic region (of the 10 counties in the state with the lowest turnout, 4 were in the Delta despite the Delta containing only 20% of the state's counties).