# 2024 United States presidential election in Maine

Elections in Maine :
Federal offices
U.S. President
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1824
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2024
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U.S. Senate
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1829 sp
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U.S. House of Representatives
1820–1821
1822 sp 2nd
1823
1824–1825
1826–1827
1826 sp 5th
1827 sp 1st
1828–1830
1830
1833
1834
1836
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1843
1844
1846
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1850
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1860 sp 5th
1862
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1881 sp 2nd
1882
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1897 sp 3rd
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1899 sp 1st
1899 sp 2nd
1900
1901 sp 4th
1902
1904
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1908
1908 sp 2nd
1908 sp 4th
1910
1912
1913 sp 3rd
1914
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1918
1920
1922
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1926
1928
1930
1932
1934
1936
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1940 sp 2nd
1942
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1951 sp 3rd
1952
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1968
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1976
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1982
1984
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1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
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2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
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2024
2026 :
State government
Gubernatorial elections
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1936
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1962
1966
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1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
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2006
2010
2014
2018
2022
2026
State Senate elections
2016
2018
2020
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State House elections
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024 :
Ballot measures
People's vetoes
2009Question 1
2011Question 1
2018Question 1 (Jun)
2020Question 1
Citizen initiated referendums
2012Question 1
2014Question 1
2015Question 1
2016
Question 1
Question 2
Question 3
Question 4
Question 5
2017
Question 1
Question 2
2018
Question 1 (Nov)
2021
Question 1
2023
Question 1
Constitutional amendments
2021
Question 3
Legislatively referred referendums
2024
Question 5 :
City of Portland
Mayoral elections
2011
2015
2019
2023 :
vte :
The 2024 United States presidential election in Maine took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Maine voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Maine has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. This election coincided with five referendum questions including a referendum to change the state flag, as well as a U.S. Senate election, U.S. House elections for the state's two congressional districts and various other state, county and local elections. The state uses ranked-choice voting.
Unlike all other states except Nebraska, Maine awards two electoral votes based on the statewide vote, and one vote for each congressional district. The at-large votes were expected to be contested by both parties, but are favored to be carried by the Democratic presidential candidate, having last been won by a Republican in 1988. However, the two congressional districts were expected to be split between the Democratic and Republican candidates with ME-1 being a strongly blue district and ME-2 being a strongly red district, something that had occurred in both 2016 and 2020.
Maine at large was potentially considered a secondary battleground during the 2024 election cycle. In 2016, Trump narrowly lost Maine at-large to Hillary Clinton by less than 3% and a margin of 22,142 votes. However, in 2020, Biden won the state by just over 9% and 74,302 votes, though Trump held Maine's 2nd congressional district. However, most polls and analysts accurately predicted Maine to remain in the Democratic camp at large in the 2024 election.
Harris won Maine at-large by about 6.9%, worse than Biden but better than Clinton. As expected, Harris won Maine's 1st congressional district while Trump won Maine's 2nd congressional district. Ranked-choice tabulation was ultimately not used as Harris won a majority of the vote statewide and in the 1st district, while Trump won a majority of the vote in the 2nd district.

## Primary elections
### Democratic primary

The Maine Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
Maine Democratic primary, March 5, 2024 :
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | Actual delegate count | Actual delegate count |
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Pledged | Unpledged | Total |
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 60,018 | 82.8% | 24 | | |
| Dean Phillips | 4,623 | 6.4% | | | |
| Other candidates | 480 | 0.7% | | | |
| Blank ballots | 7,359 | 10.2% | | | |
| Total: | 72,480 | 100% | 24 | 8 | 32 |

### Republican primary

The Maine Republican caucuses was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
Maine Republican primary, March 5, 2024 :
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | Actual delegate count | Actual delegate count |
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Bound | Unbound | Total |
| Donald Trump | 79,034 | 71.92% | 20 | 0 | 20 |
| Nikki Haley | 27,912 | 25.40% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 1,191 | 1.08% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 440 | 0.40% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 299 | 0.27% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Blank ballots | 1,022 | 0.93% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total: | 109,898 | 100.00% | 20 | 0 | 20 |

#### Attempted disqualification of Trump

Following a challenge to Trump's nomination petition for the Republican primary, the Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows on December 28, 2023 rejected Donald Trump's petition for the ballot on grounds of insurrection, similarly to what the Colorado Supreme Court ordered the secretary of state to do in Anderson v. Griswold for the Colorado primary. On January 2, 2024, Trump appealed the ruling to the Maine Superior Court, arguing that Bellows is biased and that she has "no legal authority to consider the federal constitutional issues presented by the challengers". On January 17, a Maine Superior Court judge ordered Bellows to wait for the Colorado case to be adjudicated by the Supreme Court before upholding or modifying her decision. Bellows appealed this decision to the Maine Supreme Judicial Court, and the appeal was dismissed on January 24. On March 4, 2024, the US Supreme Court ruled in Trump v. Anderson that the Colorado courts could not order for Trump to be removed from the Republican primary ballot as it is a matter for Congress to legislate on, which it had not. The secretary of state reversed her decision on the same day as the US Supreme Court's ruling.

## General election
### Predictions

| Source | Ranking (1st) | Ranking (2nd) | Ranking (statewide) | As of |
| The Economist | Safe D | Likely R | Likely D | September 5, 2024 |
| Cook Political Report | Safe D | Likely R | Likely D | August 27, 2024 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill | Safe D | Likely R | Safe D | November 4, 2024 |
| CNalysis | Safe D | Very Likely R | Solid D | November 4, 2024 |
| 538 | Safe D | Likely R | Likely D | July 15, 2024 |
| CNN | Safe D | Lean R | Safe D | January 14, 2024 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe D | Likely R | Likely D | June 29, 2023 |
| Inside Elections | Safe D | Lean R | Likely D | April 26, 2023 |
| NBC News | Safe D | Likely R | Likely D | October 6, 2024 |
| YouGov | Safe D | Tossup | Safe D | November 1, 2024 |
| Split Ticket | Safe D | Likely R | Likely D | November 1, 2024 |

### Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kamala Harris Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Other / Undecided |
| University of New Hampshire | August 15–19, 2024 | 951 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 58% | 41% | 1% |
| University of New Hampshire | July 23–25, 2024 | 1,445 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 54% | 45% | 1% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kamala Harris Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Cornel West Independent | Jill Stein Green | Chase Oliver Libertarian | Other / Undecided |
| University of New Hampshire | October 29 – November 2, 2024 | 1,485 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 52% | 41% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| SurveyUSA | October 24–29, 2024 | 1,079 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 51% | 43% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| Pan Atlantic Research | September 5–15, 2024 | 812 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 41% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 6% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kamala Harris Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Robert Kennedy Jr Independent | Cornel West Independent | Jill Stein Green | Chase Oliver Libertarian | Other / Undecided |
| University of New Hampshire | August 15–19, 2024 | 951 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 55% | 38% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| University of New Hampshire | July 23–25, 2024 | 1,445 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 48% | 40% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 5% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Other / Undecided |
| John Zogby Strategies | April 13–21, 2024 | 350 (LV) | – | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| Pan Atlantic Research | February 6–14, 2024 | 791 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 32% | 38% | 30% |
| Digital Research | October 3 – November 2, 2023 | 614 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 36% | 35% | 29% |
| Emerson College | September 19–20, 2022 | 1,164 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 51% | 40% | 9% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | RCV count | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Robert Kennedy Jr Independent | Cornel West Independent | Jill Stein Green | Other / Undecided |
| Digital Research | April 8–30, 2024 | 609 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 1 | 40% | 41% | 10% | 1% | 6% | 2% |
| Digital Research | April 8–30, 2024 | 609 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 2 | 41% | 41% | 11% | 1% | 6% | Elim |
| Digital Research | April 8–30, 2024 | 609 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 3 | 41% | 42% | 11% | Elim | 6% | Elim |
| Digital Research | April 8–30, 2024 | 609 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 4 | 42% | 43% | 15% | Elim | Elim | Elim |
| Digital Research | April 8–30, 2024 | 609 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 5 | 51% | 49% | Elim | Elim | Elim | Elim |
Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent | Other / Undecided |
| John Zogby Strategies | April 13–21, 2024 | 350 (LV) | – | 35% | 53% | 12% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent | Donald Trump Republican | Other / Undecided |
| John Zogby Strategies | April 13–21, 2024 | 350 (LV) | – | 43% | 37% | 20% |

#### Maine's 1st congressional district

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kamala Harris Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Other / Undecided |
| Pan Atlantic Research | September 5–15, 2024 | 414 (LV) | – | 58% | 32% | 10% |
| University of New Hampshire | August 15–19, 2024 | 476 (LV) | – | 64% | 36% | – |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kamala Harris Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Cornel West Independent | Jill Stein Green | Chase Oliver Libertarian | Other / Undecided |
| University of New Hampshire | October 29 – November 2, 2024 | 801 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 60% | 36% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| SurveyUSA | October 24–29, 2024 | 482 (LV) | – | 58% | 37% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 3% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kamala Harris Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Robert Kennedy Jr Independent | Cornel West Independent | Jill Stein Green | Chase Oliver Libertarian | Other / Undecided |
| University of New Hampshire | August 15–19, 2024 | 476 (LV) | – | 62% | 33% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Other / Undecided |
| Pan Atlantic Research | February 6–14, 2024 | 791 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 39% | 31% | 31% |
| Digital Research | October 3 – November 2, 2023 | 307 (RV) | – | 43% | 27% | 30% |

#### Maine's 2nd congressional district

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Kamala Harris Democratic | Other / Undecided |
| Axis Research | October 17–20, 2024 | 411 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 50% | 41% | 8% |
| Pan Atlantic Research | September 5–15, 2024 | 398 (LV) | – | 49% | 42% | 9% |
| University of New Hampshire | August 15–19, 2024 | 432 (LV) | – | 47% | 52% | 1% |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Kamala Harris Democratic | Cornel West Independent | Jill Stein Green | Chase Oliver Libertarian | Other / Undecided |
| University of New Hampshire | October 29 – November 2, 2024 | 683 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 44% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 5% |
| SurveyUSA | October 24–29, 2024 | 484 (LV) | – | 49% | 44% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 4% |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Kamala Harris Democratic | Robert Kennedy Jr Independent | Cornel West Independent | Jill Stein Green | Chase Oliver Libertarian | Other / Undecided |
| University of New Hampshire | August 15–19, 2024 | 432 (LV) | – | 44% | 49% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 3% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Other / Undecided |
| Pan Atlantic Research | February 6–14, 2024 | 791 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 25% | 30% |
| Digital Research | October 3 – November 2, 2023 | 307 (RV) | – | 42% | 28% | 30% |

### Results

* Democratic — +0-2.5%
* Republican — +0-2.5%
* Republican — +2.5-5%
* Republican — +5-7.5%
* Democratic  Hold Republican  Hold  Gain from Democratic
2024 United States presidential election in Maine :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Democratic | Kamala HarrisTim Walz | 435,652 | 52.40% | −0.69% |
| | Republican | Donald TrumpJD Vance | 377,977 | 45.46% | +1.44% |
| | Green | Jill SteinButch Ware | 8,967 | 1.08% | +0.08% |
| | Libertarian | Chase OliverMike ter Maat | 5,286 | 0.64% | −1.09% |
| | Justice For All | Cornel WestMelina Abdullah | 2,912 | 0.35% | N/A |
| | Write-in | Write-in | 581 | 0.07% | +0.06% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 831,375 | 100.00% | N/A |

#### By county

| County | Kamala Harris Democratic | Kamala Harris Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Donald Trump Republican | Various candidates Other parties | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Margin | Total |
| County | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | Total |
| Androscoggin | 27,019 | 45.91% | 30,605 | 52.01% | 1,223 | 2.08% | -3,586 | -6.10% | 58,847 |
| Aroostook | 12,900 | 36.18% | 22,246 | 62.40% | 507 | 1.42% | -9,346 | -26.22% | 35,653 |
| Cumberland | 127,971 | 66.42% | 59,964 | 31.12% | 4,721 | 2.46% | 68,007 | 35.30% | 192,656 |
| Franklin | 7,990 | 44.80% | 9,459 | 53.03% | 387 | 2.17% | -1,469 | -8.23% | 17,836 |
| Hancock | 19,817 | 54.66% | 15,551 | 42.90% | 885 | 2.44% | 4,266 | 11.76% | 36,253 |
| Kennebec | 34,585 | 47.45% | 36,589 | 50.20% | 1,712 | 2.35% | -2,004 | -2.75% | 72,886 |
| Knox | 15,076 | 58.22% | 10,262 | 39.63% | 555 | 2.15% | 4,814 | 18.59% | 25,893 |
| Lincoln | 13,110 | 54.62% | 10,409 | 43.37% | 484 | 2.01% | 2,701 | 11.25% | 24,003 |
| Oxford | 14,765 | 42.69% | 19,228 | 55.59% | 597 | 1.72% | -4,463 | -12.90% | 34,590 |
| Penobscot | 37,945 | 43.58% | 47,438 | 54.48% | 1,690 | 1.94% | -9,493 | -10.90% | 87,073 |
| Piscataquis | 3,510 | 34.39% | 6,487 | 63.57% | 208 | 2.04% | -2,977 | -29.18% | 10,205 |
| Sagadahoc | 13,982 | 57.17% | 9,917 | 40.55% | 557 | 2.28% | 4,065 | 16.62% | 24,456 |
| Somerset | 10,134 | 35.63% | 17,826 | 62.68% | 481 | 1.69% | -7,692 | -27.05% | 28,441 |
| Waldo | 12,661 | 50.38% | 11,815 | 47.02% | 654 | 2.60% | 846 | 3.36% | 25,130 |
| Washington | 6,763 | 37.48% | 11,001 | 60.96% | 282 | 1.56% | -4,238 | -23.48% | 18,046 |
| York | 71,813 | 54.22% | 58,054 | 43.83% | 2,585 | 1.95% | 13,759 | 10.39% | 132,452 |
| Totals | 435,652 | 52.40% | 377,977 | 45.46% | 17,746 | 2.14% | 57,675 | 6.94% | 831,375 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
* Kennebec (largest municipality: Augusta)

#### By congressional district

Harris won the first of Maine's two congressional districts. Trump won the other district, which elected a Democrat to the House of Representatives in the same election cycle.
| District | Harris | Harris | Trump | Trump | Other | Other | Representative |
| District | # | % | # | % | # | % | Representative |
| 1st | 258,863 | 59.69% | 165,214 | 38.09% | 9,632 | 2.22% | Chellie Pingree |
| 2nd | 176,789 | 44.46% | 212,763 | 53.50% | 8,114 | 2.04% | Jared Golden |

## Analysis

A sparsely populated state in New England, Maine is one of the most rural states in the nation and is considered to be moderately blue.
All but two counties swung Republican compared to 2020, and Trump flipped Kennebec County, which he had won in 2016 but narrowly lost in 2020. However, the state trended (relative to the national popular vote) 3.9 points towards the Democrats, remaining non-competitively blue even as neighboring New Hampshire was decided rather narrowly. While every state in the union shifted toward Donald Trump in the 2024 election, Maine had one of the smallest such shifts. Trump was the first Republican since George H.W. Bush to win Kennebec with a majority, winning it in 2016 on a plurality. It was also the first time since 2012 the county was won by a majority, with Obama carrying it with 55%.