# Opinion polling for the November 2015 Turkish general election

In the leadup to the November 2015 general election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. These polls only include Turkish voters nationwide and do not take into account Turkish expatriates voting abroad.
The results tend to vary widely (see opinion polls in Turkey for further information). Opposition parties tend to regard such polls as unreliable and have presented legislation to Parliament tightening restrictions on how opinion polls conduct their research. After the previous election in June 2015, the polling company ORC issued a written statement apologising for the inaccuracies in their pre-election polls. KONDA, another polling company, made an apology for similar reasons after their predictions varied widely with the actual result after the 2014 presidential election.

## Polling accuracy

The following table shows the most accurate polling companies based on the last opinion polls conducted by each company before the June 2015 vote (held on 7 June 2015), taking into account the domestic-only vote shares won in the election.
| Party | Party | Actual vote 7 June 2015 | Most accurate pollster | Most accurate pollster | Most accurate pollster | Most accurate pollster |
| Party | Party | Actual vote 7 June 2015 | Pollster | Poll date | Predicted vote | Error margin |
| | AKP | 40.7 | ANAR | 27 May | 40.5 | 0.2 |
| | CHP | 25.1 | MAK | 18–26 May | 24.9 | 0.2 |
| | CHP | 25.1 | ORC | 30 May – 1 June | 25.3 | 0.2 |
| | MHP | 16.5 | Gezici | 2 June | 16.5 | 0.0 |
| | HDP | 13.0 | Konda | 30–31 May | 12.6 | 0.4 |
| Overall most accurate | Overall most accurate | Overall most accurate | ANAR | 27 May | – | 0.9 |

## Controversies

According to media reports, Turkey's Justice and Development Party (AKP) government has attempted to suppress polling companies who publish polls predicting that the AKP will lose seats in the election.
Gezici Research and Polling Company have had some of their pollsters arrested in February and September 2015, after predicting that the AKP will lose power in the next election.

## Vote share polling
### Poll results

| Date | Pollster | Sample | AKP | CHP | MHP | HDP | Others | Lead |
| 1 Nov | Election results Domestic vote only | 46,555,267 | 49.3 | 25.6 | 12.0 | 10.6 | 2.5 | 23.7 |
| 24–29 Oct | Andy-Ar | 2,400 | 43.7 | 27.1 | 14.0 | 13.0 | 2.2 | 16.6 |
| 24–25 Oct | Konda | 3,574 | 41.7 | 27.9 | 14.2 | 13.8 | 2.3 | 13.8 |
| 24–25 Oct | A&G | 4,536 | 47.2 | 25.3 | 13.5 | 12.2 | 1.8 | 21.9 |
| 24–25 Oct | Gezici | 4,864 | 43.0 | 26.1 | 14.9 | 12.2 | 3.8 | 16.9 |
| 22–24 Oct | Metropoll | 2,576 | 43.3 | 25.9 | 14.8 | 13.4 | 2.6 | 17.4 |
| 21–24 Oct | ORC | 2,650 | 43.3 | 27.4 | 14.0 | 12.2 | 3.1 | 15.9 |
| 22 Oct | The first of a series of pre-election restrictions come into force, banning the publication of opinion polls | The first of a series of pre-election restrictions come into force, banning the publication of opinion polls | The first of a series of pre-election restrictions come into force, banning the publication of opinion polls | The first of a series of pre-election restrictions come into force, banning the publication of opinion polls | The first of a series of pre-election restrictions come into force, banning the publication of opinion polls | The first of a series of pre-election restrictions come into force, banning the publication of opinion polls | The first of a series of pre-election restrictions come into force, banning the publication of opinion polls | The first of a series of pre-election restrictions come into force, banning the publication of opinion polls |
| 17–21 Oct | Kurd-Tek | 2,592 | 39.1 | 28.1 | 14.4 | 14.2 | 4.2 | 11.0 |
| 16–20 Oct | AKAM | 24,540 | 40.5 | 28.2 | 14.3 | 14.2 | 2.8 | 12.3 |
| 16–20 Oct | Betimar | 2,000 | 44.3 | 25.5 | 13.6 | 13.0 | 3.6 | 18.8 |
| 13–19 Oct | Konsensus | 2,002 | 43.0 | 28.6 | 13.1 | 11.9 | 3.4 | 14.4 |
| 17–18 Oct | Konda | ? | 41.5 | 28.0 | 14.7 | 12.7 | 3.1 | |
| 12–17 Oct | Gezici | 4,864 | 41.3 | 27.0 | 15.6 | 12.5 | 3.6 | 14.3 |
| 12–17 Oct | MAK | – | 43.5 | 27.8 | 13.6 | 12.1 | 3.0 | 15.7 |
| 12–16 Oct | Argetus | 4,472 | 43.1 | 26.2 | 15.1 | 12.6 | 3.0 | 16.9 |
| 10–16 Oct | Perspektif | 1,255 | 42.3 | 27.6 | 14.7 | 12.8 | 2.6 | 14.7 |
| 10–15 Oct | Denge | – | 43.4 | 25.9 | 13.7 | 13.6 | 3.4 | 17.5 |
| 8–15 Oct | Sonar | 3,000 | 40.5 | 27.3 | 15.2 | 13.1 | 3.9 | 13.2 |
| 10 Oct | Twin bombings target a peace rally in Ankara | Twin bombings target a peace rally in Ankara | Twin bombings target a peace rally in Ankara | Twin bombings target a peace rally in Ankara | Twin bombings target a peace rally in Ankara | Twin bombings target a peace rally in Ankara | Twin bombings target a peace rally in Ankara | Twin bombings target a peace rally in Ankara |
| 5–9 Oct | Samer | 4,144 | 41.4 | 26.9 | 15.4 | 13.9 | 2.4 | 14.5 |
| 4–7 Oct | MetroPoll | 2,526 | 42.5 | 26.3 | 16.3 | 13.0 | 1.9 | 16.2 |
| 3–6 Oct | Andy-Ar | 1,764 | 42.6 | 27.1 | 15.2 | 12.1 | 3.0 | 15.5 |
| 3–4 Oct | Konda | ? | 41.0 | 29.2 | 14.8 | 12.2 | 2.8 | |
| 3–4 Oct | Gezici | 4,860 | 40.8 | 27.6 | 15.8 | 13.6 | 2.2 | 13.2 |
| 28 Sep – 1 Oct | TÜSİAR | 3,041 | 43.0 | 26.4 | 14.6 | 12.1 | 4.0 | 16.6 |
| 26–27 Sep | Gezici | 4,860 | 39.8 | 28.2 | 17.3 | 12.3 | 2.4 | 11.6 |
| 17–24 Sep | LRC | 2,425 | 38.9 | 26.0 | 17.9 | 12.3 | 4.9 | 12.9 |
| 23 Sep | AKAM | 1,214 | 38.9 | 27.7 | 14.5 | 14.6 | 4.3 | 11.2 |
| 19–23 Sep | MAK | 5,500 | 43.7 | 26.7 | 14.1 | 11.5 | 4.1 | 17.0 |
| 22 Sep | The two HDP ministers in the interim election government resign and are replaced by independents | The two HDP ministers in the interim election government resign and are replaced by independents | The two HDP ministers in the interim election government resign and are replaced by independents | The two HDP ministers in the interim election government resign and are replaced by independents | The two HDP ministers in the interim election government resign and are replaced by independents | The two HDP ministers in the interim election government resign and are replaced by independents | The two HDP ministers in the interim election government resign and are replaced by independents | The two HDP ministers in the interim election government resign and are replaced by independents |
| 19–21 Sep | Ada | 3,000 | 44.7 | 27.6 | 12.9 | 11.8 | 3.0 | 17.1 |
| 18 Sep | Deputy Prime Minister and MHP Ankara MP Tuğrul Türkeş defects to the AKP | Deputy Prime Minister and MHP Ankara MP Tuğrul Türkeş defects to the AKP | Deputy Prime Minister and MHP Ankara MP Tuğrul Türkeş defects to the AKP | Deputy Prime Minister and MHP Ankara MP Tuğrul Türkeş defects to the AKP | Deputy Prime Minister and MHP Ankara MP Tuğrul Türkeş defects to the AKP | Deputy Prime Minister and MHP Ankara MP Tuğrul Türkeş defects to the AKP | Deputy Prime Minister and MHP Ankara MP Tuğrul Türkeş defects to the AKP | Deputy Prime Minister and MHP Ankara MP Tuğrul Türkeş defects to the AKP |
| 12–15 Sep | ORC | 2,760 | 44.0 | 27.8 | 13.4 | 11.0 | 3.8 | 16.2 |
| 2–15 Sep | KURD-TEK | 5,348 | 38.5 | 26.7 | 17.5 | 14.6 | 2.8 | 11.8 |
| 12–13 Sep | Gezici | 5,000 | 39.3 | 28.1 | 16.8 | 13.5 | 2.3 | 11.2 |
| 5–13 Sep | Konsensus | 1,500 | 43.3 | 27.6 | 13.8 | 12.6 | 2.7 | 15.7 |
| 27 Aug – 13 Sep | ANAR-Denge-GENAR-Pollmark | 157,907 | 44.2 | 25.4 | 14.0 | 12.5 | 3.9 | 18.8 |
| 12 Sep | Ahmet Davutoğlu is re-elected as AKP leader unopposed during the party's 5th Ordinary Congress | Ahmet Davutoğlu is re-elected as AKP leader unopposed during the party's 5th Ordinary Congress | Ahmet Davutoğlu is re-elected as AKP leader unopposed during the party's 5th Ordinary Congress | Ahmet Davutoğlu is re-elected as AKP leader unopposed during the party's 5th Ordinary Congress | Ahmet Davutoğlu is re-elected as AKP leader unopposed during the party's 5th Ordinary Congress | Ahmet Davutoğlu is re-elected as AKP leader unopposed during the party's 5th Ordinary Congress | Ahmet Davutoğlu is re-elected as AKP leader unopposed during the party's 5th Ordinary Congress | Ahmet Davutoğlu is re-elected as AKP leader unopposed during the party's 5th Ordinary Congress |
| 5–12 Sep | Sonar | 2,500 | 38.2 | 28.0 | 18.2 | 13.7 | 1.9 | 10.2 |
| 5–6 Sep | Konda | ? | 41.7 | 24.8 | 16.4 | 12.3 | 4.8 | |
| 2–5 Sep | MetroPoll | 2,540 | 41.4 | 27.3 | 15.3 | 13.0 | 3.2 | 14.1 |
| 3 Sep | Varyans | 15,000 | 43.9 | 26.2 | 14.1 | 12.3 | 3.5 | 17.7 |
| 2 Sep | KamuAR | 5,249 | 42.3 | 26.0 | 18.7 | 11.9 | 1.2 | 16.3 |
| 28 Aug | Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu forms Turkey's first ever interim election government | Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu forms Turkey's first ever interim election government | Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu forms Turkey's first ever interim election government | Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu forms Turkey's first ever interim election government | Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu forms Turkey's first ever interim election government | Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu forms Turkey's first ever interim election government | Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu forms Turkey's first ever interim election government | Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu forms Turkey's first ever interim election government |
| 22–25 Aug | ORC | 2,450 | 43.7 | 27.5 | 14.3 | 11.2 | 3.3 | 16.2 |
| 24 Aug | President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan calls a snap general election scheduled for 1 November 2015 | President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan calls a snap general election scheduled for 1 November 2015 | President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan calls a snap general election scheduled for 1 November 2015 | President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan calls a snap general election scheduled for 1 November 2015 | President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan calls a snap general election scheduled for 1 November 2015 | President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan calls a snap general election scheduled for 1 November 2015 | President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan calls a snap general election scheduled for 1 November 2015 | President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan calls a snap general election scheduled for 1 November 2015 |
| 24 Aug | AKAM | 1,624 | 39.7 | 28.5 | 12.6 | 14.8 | 4.7 | 11.2 |
| 22–23 Aug | Gezici | 4,860 | 38.9 | 27.8 | 16.3 | 13.5 | 3.5 | 11.1 |
| 19–23 Aug | Argetus | 2,960 | 42.6 | 25.5 | 15.4 | 12.5 | 4.0 | 17.1 |
| 21 Aug | MetroPoll | 2,520 | 41.7 | 25.5 | 15.7 | 14.7 | 2.4 | 16.2 |
| 20 Aug | CHP | – | 38.8 | 28.7 | 14.6 | 13.8 | 4.1 | 10.1 |
| 18 Aug | AKP leader and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu returns the mandate to form a government to the President after last-ditch coalition talks with the MHP break down | AKP leader and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu returns the mandate to form a government to the President after last-ditch coalition talks with the MHP break down | AKP leader and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu returns the mandate to form a government to the President after last-ditch coalition talks with the MHP break down | AKP leader and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu returns the mandate to form a government to the President after last-ditch coalition talks with the MHP break down | AKP leader and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu returns the mandate to form a government to the President after last-ditch coalition talks with the MHP break down | AKP leader and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu returns the mandate to form a government to the President after last-ditch coalition talks with the MHP break down | AKP leader and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu returns the mandate to form a government to the President after last-ditch coalition talks with the MHP break down | AKP leader and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu returns the mandate to form a government to the President after last-ditch coalition talks with the MHP break down |
| 18 Aug | Gezici | – | 39.2 | 26.4 | 16.2 | 14.1 | 4.1 | 12.8 |
| 13 Aug | Coalition talks between the AKP and the CHP break down | Coalition talks between the AKP and the CHP break down | Coalition talks between the AKP and the CHP break down | Coalition talks between the AKP and the CHP break down | Coalition talks between the AKP and the CHP break down | Coalition talks between the AKP and the CHP break down | Coalition talks between the AKP and the CHP break down | Coalition talks between the AKP and the CHP break down |
| 13 Aug | AKP | – | 43.8 | 25.5 | 15.4 | 12.5 | 2.8 | 18.3 |
| 8–11 Aug | Andy-Ar | 1,504 | 42.8 | 27.0 | 15.9 | 12.8 | 1.5 | 15.8 |
| 8–9 Aug | Konda | ? | 43.6 | 25.5 | 14.7 | 12.8 | 3.4 | |
| 7–9 Aug | ORC | 1,580 | 44.1 | 26.8 | 15.6 | 10.7 | 2.8 | 17.3 |
| 4–8 Aug | MAK | 5,500 | 44.7 | 25.3 | 15.6 | 10.7 | 3.7 | 19.4 |
| 24 Jul – 4 Aug | SONAR | 3,500 | 42.9 | 25.2 | 17.0 | 10.3 | 5.6 | 17.2 |
| 27 Jul | AKAM | 1,412 | 39.9 | 27.5 | 13.8 | 14.5 | 4.4 | 12.4 |
| 21 Jul | İstanbul MP İhsan Özkes resigns from the CHP | İstanbul MP İhsan Özkes resigns from the CHP | İstanbul MP İhsan Özkes resigns from the CHP | İstanbul MP İhsan Özkes resigns from the CHP | İstanbul MP İhsan Özkes resigns from the CHP | İstanbul MP İhsan Özkes resigns from the CHP | İstanbul MP İhsan Özkes resigns from the CHP | İstanbul MP İhsan Özkes resigns from the CHP |
| 20 Jul | A suicide bombing in Suruç kills 32 people and results in military operations against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) | A suicide bombing in Suruç kills 32 people and results in military operations against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) | A suicide bombing in Suruç kills 32 people and results in military operations against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) | A suicide bombing in Suruç kills 32 people and results in military operations against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) | A suicide bombing in Suruç kills 32 people and results in military operations against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) | A suicide bombing in Suruç kills 32 people and results in military operations against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) | A suicide bombing in Suruç kills 32 people and results in military operations against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) | A suicide bombing in Suruç kills 32 people and results in military operations against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) |
| 11–15 Jul | ORC | 3,200 | 43.5 | 27.0 | 15.5 | 10.9 | 3.1 | 16.5 |
| 4–5 Jul | Gezici | 4,860 | 40.1 | 26.1 | 14.7 | 14.2 | 4.9 | 14.0 |
| 29 Jun | Andy-Ar | 1,556 | 42.8 | 27.3 | 15.4 | 11.7 | 2.8 | 15.5 |
| 24 Jun | MetroPoll | 2,483 | 41.6 | 25.1 | 16.2 | 12.9 | 4.2 | 16.5 |
| 8 Jun | IPSOS | 1,750 | 45.0 | 25.0 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 20.0 |
| 7 Jun | June 2015 general election Domestic vote only | 45,121,773 | 40.7 | 25.1 | 16.5 | 13.0 | 4.7 | 15.6 |
| 12 Jun 2011 | June 2011 general election Domestic vote only | 42,813,896 | 49.8 | 26.0 | 13.0 | – | 11.2 | 23.8 |

## Seat predictions

| Date | Pollster | Sample | AKP | CHP | MHP | HDP | Majority |
| 22–24 Oct | MetroPoll | 2,576 | 269 / 550 | 134 / 550 | 67 / 550 | 80 / 550 | Hung |
| 17–21 Oct | Kurd-Tek | 2,592 | 251 / 550 | 149 / 550 | 66 / 550 | 84 / 550 | Hung |
| 16–20 Oct | AKAM | 24,540 | 254 / 550 | 140 / 550 | 69 / 550 | 87 / 550 | Hung |
| 16–20 Oct | Betimar | 2,000 | 278 / 550 | 132 / 550 | 61 / 550 | 79 / 550 | 6 |
| 17–18 Oct | Gezici | 4,864 | 262 / 550 | 137 / 550 | 74 / 550 | 77 / 550 | Hung |
| 3–4 Oct | Gezici | 4,860 | 256 / 550 | 141 / 550 | 73 / 550 | 80 / 550 | Hung |
| 26–27 Sep | Gezici | 4,860 | 246 / 550 | 140 / 550 | 87 / 550 | 77 / 550 | Hung |
| 23 Sep | AKAM | 1,214 | 243 / 550 | 149 / 550 | 72 / 550 | 86 / 550 | Hung |
| 27 Aug – 13 Sep | ANAR-Denge-GENAR-Pollmark | 157,907 | 276 / 550 | 129 / 550 | 65 / 550 | 80 / 550 | 2 |
| 24 Aug | AKAM | 1,624 | 250 / 550 | 144 / 550 | 68 / 550 | 88 / 550 | Hung |
| 22–23 Aug | Gezici | 4,860 | 240 / 550 | 142 / 550 | 85 / 550 | 83 / 550 | Hung |
| 21 Aug | MetroPoll | 2,520 | 259 / 550 | 133 / 550 | 74 / 550 | 84 / 550 | Hung |
| 20 Aug | CHP | – | 238 / 550 | 149 / 550 | 76 / 550 | 86 / 550 | Hung |
| 27 Jul | AKAM | 1,412 | 254 / 550 | 147 / 550 | 63 / 550 | 86 / 550 | Hung |
| 7 Jun | June 2015 general election | – | 258 / 550 | 132 / 550 | 80 / 550 | 80 / 550 | Hung |
| 12 Jun 2011 | June 2011 general election | – | 327 / 550 | 135 / 550 | 53 / 550 | 35 / 550 | 104 |