# Constituency projections for the 2021 German federal election

← 2017
2025 →
2021 German federal election :
Candidates
Opinion polling
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Results
Elected MPs
MPs who lost their seat
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vte :

## Direct mandates
### Graphic of possible distribution of direct mandates

| Source | Date | Union | SPD | AfD | Linke | Grüne | FDP |
| 2021 federal election | 26 Sep 2021 | 143 | 121 | 16 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 24 September 2021 | 143 | 143 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| election.de | 24 September 2021 | 144 | 131 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 21 September 2021 | 139 | 141 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| INSA | 20 September 2021 | 90 | 182 | 14 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| election.de | 17 September 2021 | 134 | 138 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 16 September 2021 | 98 | 180 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| INSA | 13 September 2021 | 75 | 200 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| election.de | 10 September 2021 | 131 | 137 | 18 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 8 September 2021 | 84 | 198 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| INSA | 6 September 2021 | 84 | 198 | 13 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| election.de | 3 September 2021 | 153 | 106 | 16 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 31 August 2021 | 82 | 194 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| INSA | 30 August 2021 | 77 | 192 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| election.de | 27 August 2021 | 181 | 81 | 13 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| INSA | 23 August 2021 | 126 | 149 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| election.de | 20 August 2021 | 201 | 61 | 8 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 18 August 2021 | 135 | 126 | 7 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| INSA | 16 August 2021 | 175 | 99 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| election.de | 13 August 2021 | 213 | 51 | 5 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 12 August 2021 | 153 | 108 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| INSA | 9 August 2021 | 200 | 64 | 4 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| election.de | 6 August 2021 | 223 | 47 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 4 August 2021 | 168 | 99 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| INSA | 2 August 2021 | 211 | 60 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| election.de | 30 July 2021 | 233 | 37 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| INSA | 26 July 2021 | 194 | 60 | 22 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| election.de | 23 July 2021 | 233 | 37 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 20 July 2021 | 206 | 70 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| INSA | 19 July 2021 | 239 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| INSA | 12 July 2021 | 231 | 42 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| election.de | 9 July 2021 | 229 | 37 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| INSA | 5 July 2021 | 240 | 32 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 30 June 2021 | 215 | 59 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| INSA | 28 June 2021 | 243 | 29 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| election.de | 25 June 2021 | 220 | 33 | 4 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| INSA | 21 June 2021 | 242 | 25 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 15 June 2021 | 224 | 57 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| INSA | 14 June 2021 | 215 | 47 | 1 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| election.de | 11 June 2021 | 205 | 36 | 6 | 3 | 49 | 0 |
| INSA | 7 June 2021 | 220 | 32 | 4 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| election.de | 4 June 2021 | 187 | 42 | 8 | 3 | 59 | 0 |
| INSA | 31 May 2021 | 198 | 46 | 2 | 3 | 50 | 0 |
| INSA | 25 May 2021 | 204 | 42 | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 23 May 2021 | 145 | 82 | 9 | 4 | 58 | 1 |
| election.de | 21 May 2021 | 180 | 45 | 8 | 3 | 63 | 0 |
| INSA | 17 May 2021 | 183 | 47 | 15 | 3 | 51 | 0 |
| INSA | 10 May 2021 | 204 | 28 | 9 | 3 | 55 | 0 |
| election.de | 7 May 2021 | 166 | 47 | 20 | 4 | 62 | 0 |
| INSA | 4 May 2021 | 167 | 43 | 20 | 4 | 65 | 0 |
| INSA | 27 April 2021 | 169 | 53 | 8 | 3 | 66 | 0 |
| election.de | 23 April 2021 | 198 | 42 | 14 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| INSA | 20 April 2021 | 215 | 39 | 4 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 14 April 2021 | 177 | 62 | 6 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| INSA | 13 April 2021 | 202 | 42 | 15 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| election.de | 9 April 2021 | 209 | 49 | 8 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| INSA | 6 April 2021 | 204 | 51 | 1 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| INSA | 30 March 2021 | 184 | 57 | 14 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| INSA | 23 March 2021 | 203 | 57 | 6 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 20 March 2021 | 182 | 76 | 4 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| election.de | 19 March 2021 | 235 | 43 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| INSA | 16 March 2021 | 231 | 41 | 8 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| INSA | 9 March 2021 | 240 | 36 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| INSA | 2 March 2021 | 250 | 34 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| INSA | 23 February 2021 | 268 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| election.de | 17 February 2021 | 269 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| INSA | 15 February 2021 | 262 | 24 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| INSA | 9 February 2021 | 279 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| INSA | 2 February 2021 | 286 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 2 February 2021 | 244 | 40 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| election.de | 27 January 2021 | 276 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| INSA | 26 January 2021 | 278 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| INSA | 19 January 2021 | 283 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| INSA | 12 January 2021 | 284 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| INSA | 5 January 2021 | 283 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| INSA | 22 December 2020 | 271 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| election.de | 15 December 2020 | 276 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| INSA | 15 December 2020 | 268 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| INSA | 8 December 2020 | 282 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| INSA | 1 December 2020 | 281 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| INSA | 24 November 2020 | 283 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| election.de | 19 November 2020 | 276 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| INSA | 17 November 2020 | 285 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| INSA | 10 November 2020 | 280 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| INSA | 3 November 2020 | 276 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 3 November 2020 | 240 | 42 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| INSA | 27 October 2020 | 287 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| INSA | 20 October 2020 | 283 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| election.de | 15 October 2020 | 272 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| INSA | 13 October 2020 | 281 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 9 October 2020 | 233 | 36 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| INSA | 6 October 2020 | 286 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| INSA | 29 September 2020 | 274 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| INSA | 22 September 2020 | 283 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| election.de | 21 September 2020 | 277 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 18 September 2020 | 229 | 47 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| INSA | 15 September 2020 | 282 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| INSA | 8 September 2020 | 279 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 6 September 2020 | 233 | 47 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| INSA | 1 September 2020 | 280 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| INSA | 25 August 2020 | 279 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| election.de | 23 August 2020 | 283 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| INSA | 18 August 2020 | 268 | 21 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 17 August 2020 | 230 | 56 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| INSA | 11 August 2020 | 284 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 11 August 2020 | 233 | 52 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| INSA | 4 August 2020 | 288 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| INSA | 28 July 2020 | 287 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| INSA | 21 July 2020 | 285 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| election.de | 16 July 2020 | 286 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| INSA | 14 July 2020 | 285 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 14 July 2020 | 268 | 24 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| INSA | 7 July 2020 | 284 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| INSA | 30 June 2020 | 284 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| INSA | 23 June 2020 | 285 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| election.de | 14 June 2020 | 288 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 12 June 2020 | 266 | 24 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| INSA | 9 June 2020 | 287 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| INSA | 3 June 2020 | 287 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 31 May 2020 | 242 | 38 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| INSA | 26 May 2020 | 284 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| INSA | 19 May 2020 | 287 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 13 May 2020 | 260 | 27 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| INSA | 12 May 2020 | 287 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| election.de | 12 May 2020 | 288 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 6 May 2020 | 267 | 21 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| INSA | 5 May 2020 | 286 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 30 April 2020 | 249 | 44 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| INSA | 28 April 2020 | 288 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 23 April 2020 | 234 | 57 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| INSA | 21 April 2020 | 288 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| INSA | 15 April 2020 | 288 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 9 April 2020 | 243 | 54 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| election.de | 8 April 2020 | 266 | 20 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| INSA | 7 April 2020 | 287 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| INSA | 31 March 2020 | 283 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 27 March 2020 | 227 | 59 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| INSA | 24 March 2020 | 266 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 19 March 2020 | 206 | 64 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 0 |
| INSA | 17 March 2020 | 229 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| INSA | 10 March 2020 | 191 | 36 | 22 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| election.de | 10 March 2020 | 187 | 49 | 19 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| INSA | 3 March 2020 | 192 | 45 | 4 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 2 March 2020 | 153 | 54 | 31 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| INSA | 25 February 2020 | 199 | 27 | 17 | 11 | 45 | 0 |
| INSA | 18 February 2020 | 192 | 25 | 32 | 12 | 38 | 0 |
| election.de | 11 February 2020 | 215 | 29 | 17 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| INSA | 11 February 2020 | 216 | 7 | 25 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| INSA | 4 February 2020 | 236 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| INSA | 28 January 2020 | 204 | 21 | 32 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| INSA | 21 January 2020 | 216 | 7 | 32 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| election.de | 14 January 2020 | 216 | 28 | 19 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 10 January 2020 | 186 | 29 | 30 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| INSA | 7 January 2020 | 237 | 6 | 16 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| INSA | 23 December 2019 | 237 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| election.de | 17 December 2019 | 215 | 29 | 19 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| INSA | 10 December 2019 | 220 | 19 | 20 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| INSA | 26 November 2019 | 212 | 27 | 4 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| INSA | 19 November 2019 | 190 | 44 | 15 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| election.de | 19 November 2019 | 190 | 50 | 22 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| INSA | 12 November 2019 | 177 | 40 | 34 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| INSA | 5 November 2019 | 208 | 22 | 18 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| INSA | 29 October 2019 | 192 | 18 | 30 | 4 | 55 | 0 |
| INSA | 22 October 2019 | 215 | 16 | 17 | 3 | 48 | 0 |
| INSA | 15 October 2019 | 226 | 18 | 11 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| election.de | 14 October 2019 | 214 | 27 | 19 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| INSA | 1 October 2019 | 223 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 49 | 0 |
| INSA | 24 September 2019 | 198 | 26 | 24 | 3 | 48 | 0 |
| election.de | 17 September 2019 | 209 | 34 | 18 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| INSA | 17 September 2019 | 202 | 19 | 30 | 3 | 45 | 0 |
| INSA | 10 September 2019 | 215 | 14 | 23 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| INSA | 3 September 2019 | 195 | 25 | 27 | 2 | 50 | 0 |
| INSA | 27 August 2019 | 206 | 14 | 17 | 2 | 60 | 0 |
| election.de | 21 August 2019 | 208 | 27 | 16 | 3 | 45 | 0 |
| INSA | 20 August 2019 | 208 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 66 | 0 |
| INSA | 13 August 2019 | 221 | 6 | 20 | 3 | 49 | 0 |
| INSA | 6 August 2019 | 221 | 5 | 17 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| INSA | 30 July 2019 | 218 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 59 | 0 |
| INSA | 23 July 2019 | 243 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| election.de | 17 July 2019 | 197 | 31 | 17 | 3 | 51 | 0 |
| INSA | 16 July 2019 | 197 | 21 | 16 | 3 | 62 | 0 |
| INSA | 9 July 2019 | 221 | 21 | 3 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| INSA | 2 July 2019 | 208 | 15 | 17 | 4 | 55 | 0 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 27 June 2019 | 142 | 37 | 34 | 4 | 82 | 0 |
| INSA | 25 June 2019 | 194 | 14 | 22 | 5 | 64 | 0 |
| INSA | 18 June 2019 | 180 | 23 | 25 | 10 | 61 | 0 |
| INSA | 11 June 2019 | 177 | 25 | 25 | 4 | 68 | 0 |
| election.de | 7 June 2019 | 207 | 35 | 17 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| INSA | 4 June 2019 | 205 | 22 | 4 | 3 | 65 | 0 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 4 June 2019 | 155 | 22 | 26 | 6 | 90 | 0 |
| INSA | 21 May 2019 | 224 | 32 | 15 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| election.de | 17 May 2019 | 225 | 42 | 11 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| INSA | 14 May 2019 | 232 | 36 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| INSA | 7 May 2019 | 218 | 32 | 14 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| INSA | 30 April 2019 | 219 | 46 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| election.de | 16 April 2019 | 234 | 41 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| INSA | 16 April 2019 | 246 | 28 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| INSA | 2 April 2019 | 241 | 34 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| INSA | 26 March 2019 | 250 | 22 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| election.de | 20 March 2019 | 243 | 34 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| INSA | 19 March 2019 | 236 | 28 | 7 | 10 | 18 | 0 |
| INSA | 12 March 2019 | 259 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| INSA | 5 March 2019 | 225 | 55 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| INSA | 26 February 2019 | 220 | 64 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| INSA | 19 February 2019 | 230 | 51 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| election.de | 13 February 2019 | 242 | 31 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| INSA | 12 February 2019 | 239 | 31 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| INSA | 5 February 2019 | 242 | 18 | 14 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| INSA | 29 January 2019 | 244 | 16 | 4 | 15 | 20 | 0 |
| INSA | 22 January 2019 | 263 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| election.de | 17 January 2019 | 240 | 26 | 12 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| INSA | 15 January 2019 | 228 | 18 | 24 | 9 | 20 | 0 |
| INSA | 8 January 2019 | 238 | 18 | 20 | 7 | 16 | 0 |
| election.de | 18 December 2018 | 240 | 27 | 11 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| INSA | 18 December 2018 | 250 | 20 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| INSA | 11 December 2018 | 243 | 30 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| INSA | 4 December 2018 | 235 | 15 | 19 | 10 | 20 | 0 |
| election.de | 29 November 2018 | 205 | 38 | 25 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| INSA | 27 November 2018 | 221 | 24 | 22 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| INSA | 20 November 2018 | 200 | 32 | 25 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| INSA | 13 November 2018 | 197 | 31 | 29 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| INSA | 6 November 2018 | 204 | 29 | 21 | 12 | 33 | 0 |
| INSA | 30 October 2018 | 206 | 33 | 14 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| election.de | 24 October 2018 | 189 | 47 | 32 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| INSA | 23 October 2018 | 213 | 37 | 12 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| election.de | 17 October 2018 | 205 | 60 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| INSA | 16 October 2018 | 205 | 35 | 27 | 13 | 19 | 0 |
| INSA | 9 October 2018 | 200 | 61 | 24 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| INSA | 25 September 2018 | 205 | 47 | 27 | 12 | 8 | 0 |
| election.de | 13 September 2018 | 213 | 61 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| INSA | 11 September 2018 | 214 | 58 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 0 |
| INSA | 3 September 2018 | 237 | 38 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| INSA | 28 August 2018 | 236 | 46 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| INSA | 21 August 2018 | 235 | 40 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 0 |
| election.de | 16 August 2018 | 213 | 61 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| INSA | 14 August 2018 | 229 | 57 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| INSA | 7 August 2018 | 232 | 55 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| INSA | 31 July 2018 | 218 | 61 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 0 |
| INSA | 24 July 2018 | 227 | 60 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| election.de | 18 July 2018 | 214 | 60 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| INSA | 16 July 2018 | 241 | 40 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| INSA | 9 July 2018 | 236 | 50 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| INSA | 2 July 2018 | 221 | 65 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| INSA | 25 June 2018 | 214 | 67 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 0 |
| INSA | 18 June 2018 | 211 | 61 | 6 | 16 | 5 | 0 |
| election.de | 15 June 2018 | 229 | 59 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| INSA | 11 June 2018 | 244 | 35 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 0 |
| INSA | 4 June 2018 | 261 | 29 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| INSA | 28 May 2018 | 256 | 31 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| election.de | 24 May 2018 | 240 | 49 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| election.de | 23 April 2018 | 239 | 48 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| INSA | 23 April 2018 | 240 | 48 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| election.de | 20 March 2018 | 237 | 51 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| election.de | 16 February 2018 | 230 | 54 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| election.de | 19 January 2018 | 240 | 49 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| 2017 federal election | 24 Sep 2017 | 231 | 59 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 |

## By probability

| Source | Date | Union | Union | Union | SPD | SPD | SPD | AfD | AfD | AfD | Linke | Linke | Linke | Grüne | Grüne | Grüne |
| Source | Date | Safe | Likely | Lean | Safe | Likely | Lean | Safe | Likely | Lean | Safe | Likely | Lean | Safe | Likely | Lean |
| election.de | 24 September 2021 | 30 | 49 | 65 | 25 | 52 | 54 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| election.de | 17 September 2021 | 25 | 48 | 61 | 28 | 54 | 56 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| election.de | 10 September 2021 | 27 | 47 | 57 | 28 | 52 | 57 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| election.de | 3 September 2021 | 41 | 62 | 50 | 12 | 45 | 49 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| election.de | 27 August 2021 | 51 | 73 | 57 | 5 | 40 | 36 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| election.de | 20 August 2021 | 52 | 81 | 68 | 3 | 25 | 33 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 20 |
| election.de | 13 August 2021 | 60 | 91 | 62 | 2 | 21 | 28 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 21 |
| election.de | 6 August 2021 | 79 | 93 | 51 | 2 | 13 | 32 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| election.de | 30 July 2021 | 85 | 98 | 50 | 1 | 11 | 25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| election.de | 23 July 2021 | 86 | 97 | 50 | 1 | 11 | 25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| election.de | 9 July 2021 | 83 | 98 | 48 | 1 | 11 | 25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 21 |
| election.de | 25 June 2021 | 70 | 97 | 53 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 21 |
| election.de | 11 June 2021 | 55 | 87 | 63 | 1 | 12 | 23 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 22 |
| election.de | 4 June 2021 | 45 | 75 | 67 | 2 | 14 | 26 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 28 |
| election.de | 21 May 2021 | 38 | 71 | 71 | 2 | 17 | 26 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 27 | 30 |
| election.de | 7 May 2021 | 38 | 66 | 62 | 2 | 22 | 23 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 29 |
| election.de | 23 April 2021 | 61 | 83 | 54 | 2 | 16 | 24 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 30 |
| election.de | 9 April 2021 | 63 | 84 | 62 | 2 | 21 | 26 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 22 |
| election.de | 19 March 2021 | 107 | 71 | 57 | 2 | 11 | 30 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 |
| election.de | 17 February 2021 | 152 | 84 | 33 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| election.de | 27 January 2021 | 166 | 78 | 32 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| election.de | 15 December 2020 | 167 | 76 | 33 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| election.de | 19 November 2020 | 164 | 80 | 32 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| election.de | 15 October 2020 | 156 | 81 | 35 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| election.de | 21 September 2020 | 168 | 79 | 30 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| election.de | 23 August 2020 | 178 | 73 | 32 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| election.de | 16 July 2020 | 187 | 72 | 27 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| election.de | 14 June 2020 | 194 | 72 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| election.de | 12 May 2020 | 188 | 71 | 29 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| election.de | 8 April 2020 | 151 | 62 | 53 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| election.de | 10 March 2020 | 56 | 82 | 49 | 2 | 16 | 31 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 24 |
| election.de | 11 February 2020 | 75 | 80 | 60 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 22 |
| election.de | 14 January 2020 | 79 | 75 | 62 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 21 |
| election.de | 17 December 2019 | 78 | 78 | 59 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 24 |
| election.de | 19 November 2019 | 65 | 76 | 49 | 2 | 17 | 31 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 23 |
| election.de | 14 October 2019 | 71 | 80 | 63 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 19 |
| election.de | 17 September 2019 | 58 | 68 | 83 | 1 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 28 |
| election.de | 21 August 2019 | 59 | 63 | 86 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 31 |
| election.de | 17 July 2019 | 49 | 62 | 86 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 30 |
| election.de | 7 June 2019 | 58 | 66 | 83 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 29 |
| election.de | 17 May 2019 | 70 | 74 | 81 | 1 | 6 | 35 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| election.de | 16 April 2019 | 75 | 76 | 83 | 1 | 4 | 36 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| election.de | 20 March 2019 | 84 | 80 | 79 | 0 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| election.de | 13 February 2019 | 86 | 75 | 81 | 0 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| election.de | 17 January 2019 | 90 | 73 | 77 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| election.de | 18 December 2018 | 89 | 74 | 77 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| election.de | 29 November 2018 | 63 | 67 | 75 | 1 | 4 | 33 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 19 |
| election.de | 24 October 2018 | 58 | 71 | 60 | 1 | 6 | 42 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| election.de | 17 October 2018 | 71 | 52 | 82 | 2 | 6 | 52 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| election.de | 13 September 2018 | 122 | 28 | 63 | 5 | 18 | 38 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| election.de | 16 August 2018 | 123 | 26 | 64 | 5 | 18 | 38 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| election.de | 18 July 2018 | 142 | 30 | 42 | 13 | 16 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| election.de | 15 June 2018 | 118 | 54 | 57 | 2 | 17 | 40 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| election.de | 24 May 2018 | 130 | 59 | 51 | 2 | 12 | 35 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| election.de | 23 April 2018 | 128 | 61 | 50 | 2 | 12 | 34 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| election.de | 20 March 2018 | 127 | 59 | 51 | 2 | 13 | 36 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| election.de | 16 February 2018 | 118 | 57 | 55 | 2 | 14 | 38 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| election.de | 19 January 2018 | 128 | 63 | 49 | 2 | 12 | 35 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2017 federal election | 24 September 2017 | 231 | 231 | 231 | 59 | 59 | 59 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |

## Second place

| Source | Date | Union | SPD | AfD | Linke | Grüne |
| election.de | 24 September 2021 | 130 | 113 | 11 | 1 | 44 |
| election.de | 17 September 2021 | 128 | 118 | 13 | 2 | 38 |
| election.de | 10 September 2021 | 129 | 115 | 8 | 2 | 45 |
| election.de | 3 September 2021 | 111 | 117 | 11 | 2 | 58 |
| election.de | 27 August 2021 | 96 | 124 | 15 | 4 | 60 |
| election.de | 20 August 2021 | 82 | 125 | 21 | 6 | 65 |
| election.de | 13 August 2021 | 73 | 121 | 26 | 7 | 72 |
| election.de | 6 August 2021 | 66 | 120 | 31 | 5 | 77 |
| election.de | 30 July 2021 | 57 | 121 | 30 | 6 | 84 |
| election.de | 23 July 2021 | 56 | 120 | 31 | 9 | 83 |
| election.de | 9 July 2021 | 59 | 121 | 30 | 7 | 82 |
| election.de | 25 June 2021 | 63 | 93 | 29 | 10 | 104 |
| election.de | 11 June 2021 | 74 | 84 | 27 | 11 | 103 |
| election.de | 4 June 2021 | 88 | 80 | 26 | 9 | 96 |
| election.de | 21 May 2021 | 93 | 77 | 26 | 10 | 93 |
| election.de | 7 May 2021 | 105 | 75 | 18 | 7 | 94 |
| election.de | 23 April 2021 | 83 | 91 | 25 | 12 | 88 |
| election.de | 9 April 2021 | 72 | 102 | 29 | 10 | 86 |
| election.de | 19 March 2021 | 55 | 123 | 30 | 11 | 80 |
| election.de | 17 February 2021 | 25 | 147 | 30 | 15 | 82 |
| election.de | 27 January 2021 | 18 | 150 | 30 | 15 | 86 |
| election.de | 15 December 2020 | 18 | 153 | 33 | 12 | 83 |
| election.de | 19 November 2020 | 18 | 148 | 33 | 12 | 88 |
| election.de | 15 October 2020 | 22 | 141 | 29 | 15 | 92 |
| election.de | 21 September 2020 | 17 | 151 | 33 | 12 | 86 |
| election.de | 23 August 2020 | 14 | 155 | 33 | 11 | 86 |
| election.de | 16 July 2020 | 11 | 155 | 34 | 12 | 87 |
| election.de | 14 June 2020 | 9 | 155 | 27 | 19 | 89 |
| election.de | 12 May 2020 | 9 | 170 | 33 | 11 | 76 |
| election.de | 8 April 2020 | 30 | 141 | 33 | 12 | 83 |
| election.de | 10 March 2020 | 91 | 82 | 25 | 13 | 88 |
| election.de | 11 February 2020 | 69 | 87 | 31 | 12 | 100 |
| election.de | 14 January 2020 | 71 | 85 | 35 | 7 | 101 |
| election.de | 17 December 2019 | 72 | 94 | 33 | 8 | 92 |
| election.de | 19 November 2019 | 91 | 90 | 27 | 10 | 81 |
| election.de | 14 October 2019 | 71 | 84 | 38 | 5 | 101 |
| election.de | 17 September 2019 | 74 | 88 | 38 | 5 | 94 |
| election.de | 21 August 2019 | 75 | 77 | 32 | 9 | 106 |
| election.de | 17 July 2019 | 85 | 71 | 31 | 10 | 102 |
| election.de | 7 June 2019 | 78 | 86 | 29 | 9 | 97 |
| election.de | 17 May 2019 | 64 | 120 | 30 | 9 | 76 |
| election.de | 16 April 2019 | 55 | 123 | 30 | 11 | 80 |
| election.de | 20 March 2019 | 50 | 127 | 36 | 9 | 77 |
| election.de | 13 February 2019 | 50 | 123 | 33 | 12 | 81 |
| election.de | 17 January 2019 | 53 | 114 | 37 | 9 | 86 |
| election.de | 18 December 2018 | 53 | 116 | 39 | 7 | 84 |
| election.de | 29 November 2018 | 79 | 102 | 36 | 4 | 78 |
| election.de | 24 October 2018 | 93 | 102 | 34 | 5 | 65 |
| election.de | 17 October 2018 | 88 | 132 | 46 | 2 | 31 |
| election.de | 13 September 2018 | 81 | 158 | 44 | 2 | 14 |
| election.de | 16 August 2018 | 81 | 159 | 43 | 2 | 14 |
| election.de | 18 July 2018 | 80 | 159 | 44 | 2 | 14 |
| election.de | 15 June 2018 | 67 | 175 | 40 | 7 | 10 |
| election.de | 24 May 2018 | 57 | 183 | 44 | 6 | 9 |
| election.de | 23 April 2018 | 59 | 179 | 39 | 8 | 14 |
| election.de | 20 March 2018 | 60 | 184 | 43 | 7 | 5 |
| election.de | 16 February 2018 | 66 | 169 | 39 | 9 | 16 |
| election.de | 19 January 2018 | 57 | 181 | 32 | 13 | 16 |
| 2017 federal election | 24 September 2017 | 66 | 185 | 33 | 10 | 5 |