# Worst-to-First

In the National Football League (NFL), "going from worst-to-first" refers to a team winning its division the season following a last-place divisional finish. The inverse scenario, in which a team goes from first-to-worst in their division, has also been observed. The NFL's current division alignment has been in place since the 2002 season and sees both conferences–the American Football Conference (AFC) and National Football Conference (NFC)–have four divisions each, for a total of eight in the league. These conferences are mostly based on geography and have names to reflect this (i.e. the AFC East and NFC North).

## History

After finishing last in the Central Division of the NFL's Western Conference in 1967, the Minnesota Vikings won the division title the following season. Their worst-to-first turnaround in 1968 makes them hold the distinction of being the only team to do so prior to the league's merger with the American Football League (AFL).
The merger brought along with it the NFL's modern divisional structure, with the 1970 season being the first following the merger. That season saw two teams accomplish the worst-to-first feat: the Cincinnati Bengals and the San Francisco 49ers. The latter went from a last-place finish in the NFL Coastal Division to winning its spiritual successor, the NFC West. The Bengals, however, finished last in the AFL Western division in 1969 but were not a member of the post-merger AFC West in 1970. Instead, the Bengals were placed in the AFC Central division, which they won. The Bengals also have the distinction of having the most worst-to-first seasons, with five (1970, 1981, 1988, 1990, and 2021).
Beginning with the 2002 season, the league realigned its division structure to have four each in both conferences. Since the league's realignment in 2002, most seasons have seen at least one team go from worst-to-first. The 2002, 2014, 2019, and 2024 seasons featured no such teams. Two teams have accomplished the feat in the same season on multiple occasions, with 2018 being the most recent occurrence of this. This also happened three times prior to the 2002 realignment (1970, 1999, and 2001).
From 2003–2006, all four NFC South teams traded worst-to-first seasons: the Carolina Panthers achieved the feat in 2003, with the Atlanta Falcons, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and New Orleans Saints replicating the feat in 2004, 2005, and 2006, respectively. The Buccaneers went worst-to-first again in 2007, making the division have a five consecutive instances of a worst-to-first team.
Four worst-to-first teams have ultimately won the Super Bowl: the 1999 St. Louis Rams, the 2001 New England Patriots, the 2009 New Orleans Saints, and the 2017 Philadelphia Eagles. Four other teams to achieve a worst-to-first season also made Super Bowl appearances, albeit in losing efforts: three of the aforementioned Bengals teams (1981, 1988, 2021), and the 2003 Carolina Panthers.

## Analysis

NFL schedule makers create the regular season schedule with a team's divisional ranking from the previous season in mind. As a result, last-place divisional finishers will play a "last-place schedule", which can positively impact their ability to improve their record.
Due to the frequency of the worst-to-first feat being accomplished, particularly since the 2002 realignment, NFL media publications and sportswriters often speculate during NFL off-seasons about which last-place divisional finishers will produce turn-around seasons. These off-season publications often rank the eight divisions' last-place finishers in terms of most likely to go from worst-to-first. These sportswriters have also noted the phenomenon as contributing to the NFL's parity and fan optimism, citing worst-to-first instances as examples of quick turnarounds being able to materialize. The feat in the NFL is notably more common than in the other major North American sports leagues; according to Elias Sports Bureau, two teams achieving the worst-to-first feat in their divisions in consecutive seasons "has never happened in MLB, NBA, or the NHL".

## List of teams to go from worst-to-first

Legend :
| † | Won the Super Bowl |
Teams to go from worst-to-first :
| Season | Division | Team | Record | Playoff result | Previous finish |
| Pre-merger |||||||
| 1968 | NFL Central | Minnesota Vikings | 8–6 | Lost in Western Conference championship game | 4th, 3–8–3 |
| Post-merger |||||||
| 1970 | AFC Central | Cincinnati Bengals | 8–6 | Lost in AFC Divisional round | 5th, 4–9–1 |
| 1970 | NFC West | San Francisco 49ers | 10–3–1 | Lost in NFC Championship Game | 4th, 4–8–2 |
| 1972 | NFC Central | Green Bay Packers | 10–4 | Lost in NFC Divisional round | 4th, 4–8–2 |
| 1975 | AFC East | Baltimore Colts | 10–4 | Lost in AFC Divisional round | 5th, 2–12 |
| 1979 | NFC Central | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 10–6 | Lost in NFC Championship Game | 5th, 5–11 |
| 1981 | AFC Central | Cincinnati Bengals | 12–4 | Lost in Super Bowl XVI | 4th, 6–10 |
| 1987 | AFC East | Indianapolis Colts | 9–6 | Lost in NFC Divisional round | 5th, 3–13 |
| 1988 | AFC Central | Cincinnati Bengals | 12–4 | Lost in Super Bowl XXIII | 4th, 4–11 |
| 1990 | AFC Central | Cincinnati Bengals | 9–7 | Lost in AFC Divisional round | 4th, 8–8 |
| 1991 | AFC West | Denver Broncos | 12–4 | Lost in AFC Championship Game | 5th, 5–11 |
| 1992 | AFC West | San Diego Chargers | 11–5 | Lost in AFC Divisional round | 5th, 4–12 |
| 1993 | NFC Central | Detroit Lions | 10–6 | Lost in NFC Wild Card round | 5th, 5–11 |
| 1997 | NFC East | New York Giants | 10–5–1 | Lost in NFC Wild Card round | 5th, 6–10 |
| 1999 | AFC East | Indianapolis Colts | 13–3 | Lost in AFC Divisional round | 5th, 3–13 |
| 1999 | NFC West | St. Louis Rams | 13–3 | Won Super Bowl XXXIV† | 5th, 4–12 |
| 2000 | NFC West | New Orleans Saints | 10–6 | Lost in NFC Divisional round | 5th, 3–13 |
| 2001 | AFC East | New England Patriots | 11–5 | Won Super Bowl XXXVI† | 5th, 5–11 |
| 2001 | NFC Central | Chicago Bears | 13–3 | Lost in NFC Divisional round | 5th, 5–11 |
| Since 2002 realignment |||||||
| 2003 | AFC West | Kansas City Chiefs | 13–3 | Lost in AFC Divisional round | 4th, 8–8 |
| 2003 | NFC South | Carolina Panthers | 11–5 | Lost in Super Bowl XXXVIII | 4th, 7–9 |
| 2004 | AFC West | San Diego Chargers | 12–4 | Lost in AFC Wild Card round | 4th, 4–12 |
| 2004 | NFC South | Atlanta Falcons | 11–5 | Lost in NFC Championship Game | 4th, 5–11 |
| 2005 | NFC North | Chicago Bears | 11–5 | Lost in NFC Divisional round | 4th, 5–11 |
| 2005 | NFC South | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 11–5 | Lost in NFC Wild Card round | 4th, 5–11 |
| 2006 | NFC East | Philadelphia Eagles | 10–6 | Lost in NFC Divisional round | 4th, 6–10 |
| 2006 | NFC South | New Orleans Saints | 10–6 | Lost in NFC Championship Game | 4th, 3–13 |
| 2007 | NFC South | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 9–7 | Lost in NFC Wild Card round | 4th, 4–12 |
| 2008 | AFC East | Miami Dolphins | 11–5 | Lost in AFC Wild Card round | 4th, 1–15 |
| 2009 | NFC South | New Orleans Saints | 13–3 | Won Super Bowl XLIV† | 4th, 8–8 |
| 2010 | AFC West | Kansas City Chiefs | 10–6 | Lost in AFC Wild Card round | 4th, 4–12 |
| 2011 | AFC West | Denver Broncos | 8–8 | Lost in AFC Divisional round | 4th, 4–12 |
| 2012 | NFC East | Washington Redskins | 10–6 | Lost in NFC Wild Card round | 4th, 5–11 |
| 2013 | NFC East | Philadelphia Eagles | 10–6 | Lost in NFC Wild Card round | 4th, 4–12 |
| 2015 | NFC East | Washington Redskins | 9–7 | Lost in NFC Wild Card round | 4th, 4–12 |
| 2016 | NFC East | Dallas Cowboys | 13–3 | Lost in NFC Divisional round | 4th, 4–12 |
| 2017 | AFC South | Jacksonville Jaguars | 10–6 | Lost in AFC Championship Game | 4th, 3–13 |
| 2017 | NFC East | Philadelphia Eagles | 13–3 | Won Super Bowl LII† | 4th, 7–9 |
| 2018 | AFC South | Houston Texans | 12–4 | Lost in AFC Divisional round | 4th, 4–12 |
| 2018 | NFC North | Chicago Bears | 12–4 | Lost in NFC Wild Card round | 4th, 5–11 |
| 2020 | NFC East | Washington Football Team | 7–9 | Lost in NFC Wild Card round | 4th, 3–13 |
| 2021 | AFC North | Cincinnati Bengals | 10–7 | Lost in Super Bowl LVI | 4th, 4–11–1 |
| 2022 | AFC South | Jacksonville Jaguars | 9–8 | Lost in AFC Divisional round | 4th, 3–14 |
| 2023 | AFC South | Houston Texans | 10–7 | Lost in AFC Divisional round | 4th, 3–13–1 |

## First-to-Worst

The inverse scenario, in which a division champion finishes in last place the following season, has also been observed by NFL media. The Cincinnati Bengals who went from worst-to-first in 1970 then achieved the opposite feat the following season, as the 1971 Bengals squad finished in last place in their division. The Bengals franchise also has gone from first-to-worst a league-leading five times (1971, 1989, 1991, 2010, and 2023). The most recent instance of a team going from first-to-worst is the 2024 San Francisco 49ers, who won the NFC West in 2023, before finishing 6–11 in 2024. The 49ers had several key players sustain injuries that season, which is a common reason for teams documented to have considerable season-to-season decline in success; starters opting to retire or sign with another team in free agency have also been noted reasons for past first-to-worst falloffs.

## In other sports

The phenomenon has been observed in other sports, such as basketball. The Detroit Shock of the Women's National Basketball Association (WNBA) won the 2003 WNBA Finals one season after finishing with the worst record in their conference (9–23). In the National Basketball Association (NBA), the Boston Celtics finished at the bottom of the Eastern Conference with a 24–58 record in the 2006–07 season. The team's acquisition of Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen in the following off-season led to a significant turnaround in 2007–08, as the team won a league-best 66 games and the 2008 NBA Finals.
In Major League Baseball (MLB), the 1991 season saw both the Atlanta Braves and Minnesota Twins win their respective divisions after both teams finished in last place the previous season; the two teams then faced each other in the 1991 World Series, with the Twins emerging victorious. In 2013, the Boston Red Sox won the American League (AL) East division, as well as the 2013 World Series; the season prior, they posted a 69-93 record and finished last in their division.