# Saanich—Gulf Islands

Saanich—Gulf Islands is a federal electoral district in British Columbia, Canada, that has been represented in the House of Commons of Canada since 1988. It is named for its geographical location across the Gulf Islands and Saanich Peninsula in the Vancouver Island region.

## Demographics

Panethnic groups in Saanich—Gulf Islands (2011−2021) :
| Panethnic group | 2021 | 2021 | 2016 | 2016 | 2011 | 2011 |
| Panethnic group | Pop. | % | Pop. | % | Pop. | % |
| European | 88,690 | 79.64% | 85,125 | 80.99% | 85,695 | 83.94% |
| East Asian | 8,705 | 7.82% | 8,175 | 7.78% | 6,740 | 6.6% |
| Indigenous | 4,825 | 4.33% | 4,675 | 4.45% | 3,885 | 3.81% |
| South Asian | 3,820 | 3.43% | 3,285 | 3.13% | 2,350 | 2.3% |
| Southeast Asian | 2,345 | 2.11% | 1,655 | 1.57% | 1,330 | 1.3% |
| African | 860 | 0.77% | 705 | 0.67% | 640 | 0.63% |
| Latin American | 785 | 0.7% | 530 | 0.5% | 490 | 0.48% |
| Middle Eastern | 670 | 0.6% | 440 | 0.42% | 530 | 0.52% |
| Other | 660 | 0.59% | 530 | 0.5% | 440 | 0.43% |
| Total responses | 111,360 | 98.08% | 105,110 | 97.92% | 102,085 | 97.89% |
| Total population | 113,541 | 100% | 107,339 | 100% | 104,285 | 100% |
| Notes: Totals greater than 100% due to multiple origin responses. Demographics based on 2012 Canadian federal electoral redistribution riding boundaries. |||||||
More than 21 percent of Saanich—Gulf Islands' residents are immigrants, and more than 31 percent are older than 65, making this the riding with the third largest senior population in Canada. The riding has a median age of 52.4, making it the riding with the highest median age in Canada. The average family income is $119,500; unemployment is 6.4 percent.
    According to the 2021 Canadian census; 2013 representation
Languages: 82.3% English, 2.6% Mandarin, 1.8% Yue, 1.2% French, 1.2% German, 1.2% Punjabi Religions (2021): 35.6% Christian (10.3% Catholic, 6.6% Anglican, 4.6% United Church, 1.3% Baptist, 1.1% Lutheran, 1.0% Presbyterian), 1.7% Sikh, 1.0% Buddhist, 58.3% No religion
Median income (2020): $44,400
Average income (2020): $59,550

## Geography

The riding of Saanich—Gulf Islands consists of the north part of the Municipality of Saanich, as well as the municipalities of Central Saanich, North Saanich, and Sidney on Vancouver Island. The district also includes a number of the southern Gulf Islands, including Salt Spring Island, the Pender Islands, Galiano Island, Mayne Island and Saturna Island. The district's southeastern border runs along the University of Victoria.

## History

The electoral district was created in 1987 from Esquimalt—Saanich and Cowichan—Malahat—The Islands ridings.
The 2012 federal electoral boundaries redistribution concluded that the electoral boundaries of Saanich—Gulf Islands should be adjusted, and a modified electoral district of the same name will be contested in future elections. The redefined Saanich—Gulf Islands loses a small portion of its current territory in the urbanized portion of Saanich to the new district of Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke. These new boundaries were legally defined in the 2013 representation order, which came into effect upon the call of the 42nd Canadian federal election, which was held October 19, 2015.

## Political geography

Despite the usually close vote between the various right-leaning parties, the Canadian Alliance, Reform and Conservative parties consistently won the district from 1993 to 2011. From 1953 to 2024, the riding and its predecessor, Esquimalt—Saanich, were only won by a non-conservative candidate five times: 1968 to Liberal David Anderson, in 1988 to New Democrat Lynn Hunter, and in 2011, 2015 and 2019 to Green party leader Elizabeth May, who in 2015 won every poll-district within the constituency. The 1988 Conservative loss is attributed to vote splitting between the Progressive Conservatives and the new Reform party. Despite a Conservative majority in 2011, the Greens won their very first elected seat here and it went on to become their only stronghold in the country. The peninsular portion of the riding is more competitive, with significant support for all parties except the Liberals. However, the Gulf Islands have probably the strongest Green support in the country, with many voters being environmentally conscious, moderate retirees, as well as a notable artist population. Even with the Green collapse nationally in 2021, May held on with 37%, although it was her lowest voteshare in the riding.

## Riding associations

Riding associations are the local branches of political parties:
| Party | Association name | President | HQ address | HQ city |
| Conservative | Saanich—Gulf Islands Conservative Association | Ryan T. Trelford | Post Office Box 606 | Sidney |
| Green | Saanich—Gulf Islands Green Party EDA | Dan Kells | Post Office Box 20076 | Sidney |
| Liberal | Saanich—Gulf Islands Federal Liberal Association | Sulo Saravanabawan | 460-580 Hornby Street | Vancouver |
| New Democratic | Saanich—Gulf Islands Federal NDP Riding Association | Elroy Deimert | | Saanich |

## Members of Parliament

This riding has elected the following members of Parliament:
| Parliament | Years | Member | Party |
| Saanich—Gulf Islands Riding created from Esquimalt—Saanich and Cowichan—Malahat—The Islands |||||
| 34th | 1988–1993 | Lynn Hunter | New Democratic |
| 35th | 1993–1997 | Jack Frazer | Reform |
| 36th | 1997–2000 | Gary Lunn | Reform |
| 36th | 2000–2000 | Gary Lunn | Alliance |
| 37th | 2000–2003 | Gary Lunn | Alliance |
| 37th | 2003–2004 | Gary Lunn | Conservative |
| 38th | 2004–2006 | Gary Lunn | Conservative |
| 39th | 2006–2008 | Gary Lunn | Conservative |
| 40th | 2008–2011 | Gary Lunn | Conservative |
| 41st | 2011–2015 | Elizabeth May | Green |
| 42nd | 2015–2019 | Elizabeth May | Green |
| 43rd | 2019–2021 | Elizabeth May | Green |
| 44th | 2021–present | Elizabeth May | Green |

### Current member of Parliament

As of 2024, the district's member of Parliament is Green Party leader Elizabeth May. She was first elected in 2011 and was the first Green MP to be elected to the House of Commons. She defeated Conservative incumbent and cabinet minister Gary Lunn.

## Election results

2021 federal election redistributed results :
| Party | Vote | % |
| Green | 25,136 | 35.77 |
| Conservative | 15,915 | 22.65 |
| New Democratic | 13,738 | 19.55 |
| Liberal | 13,216 | 18.81 |
| People's | 2,115 | 3.01 |
| Others | 156 | 0.22 |
vte2021 Canadian federal election :
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | Expenditures |
| | Green | Elizabeth May | 24,648 | 37.62 | -11.47 | $85,326.87 |
| | Conservative | David Busch | 14,775 | 22.55 | +2.32 | $91,482.76 |
| | Liberal | Sherri Moore-Arbour | 12,056 | 18.40 | +1.78 | 47,983.06 |
| | New Democratic | Sabina Singh | 11,959 | 18.25 | +5.55 | $44,510.15 |
| | People's | David Hilderman | 1,943 | 2.97 | +1.61 | $0.00 |
| | Communist | Dock Currie | 141 | 0.22 | - | $0.00 |
| Total valid votes/expense limit | Total valid votes/expense limit | Total valid votes/expense limit | 65,522 | 99.43 | – | $121,248.58 |
| Total rejected ballots | Total rejected ballots | Total rejected ballots | 374 | 0.57 |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 65,896 | 70.45 | -4.18 |
| Eligible voters | Eligible voters | Eligible voters | 93,538 |
| | Green hold | Green hold | Swing | Swing | |
| Source: Elections Canada |||||||
vte2019 Canadian federal election :
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | Expenditures |
| | Green | Elizabeth May | 33,454 | 49.09 | -5.31 | $87,482.73 |
| | Conservative | David Busch | 13,784 | 20.23 | +0.77 | none listed |
| | Liberal | Ryan Windsor | 11,326 | 16.62 | -0.08 | none listed |
| | New Democratic | Sabina Singh | 8,657 | 12.70 | +3.63 | none listed |
| | People's | Ron Broda | 929 | 1.36 | – | none listed |
| Total valid votes/expense limit | Total valid votes/expense limit | Total valid votes/expense limit | 68,150 | 99.53 |
| Total rejected ballots | Total rejected ballots | Total rejected ballots | 323 | 0.47 | +0.18 |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 68,473 | 74.63 | -4.05 |
| Eligible voters | Eligible voters | Eligible voters | 91,752 |
| | Green hold | Green hold | Swing | Swing | -3.04 |
| Source: Elections Canada |||||||
vte2015 Canadian federal election :
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | Expenditures |
| | Green | Elizabeth May | 37,070 | 54.40 | +7.99 | $191,615.15 |
| | Conservative | Robert Boyd | 13,260 | 19.46 | −17.02 | $148,289.09 |
| | Liberal | Tim Kane | 11,380 | 16.70 | +10.64 | $56,913.03 |
| | New Democratic | Alicia Cormier | 6,181 | 9.07 | −1.97 | $52,539.33 |
| | Libertarian | Meghan Jess Porter | 249 | 0.37 | – | $231.52 |
| Total valid votes/expense limit | Total valid votes/expense limit | Total valid votes/expense limit | 68,140 | 99.71 | | $223,670.30 |
| Total rejected ballots | Total rejected ballots | Total rejected ballots | 201 | 0.29 | – |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 68,341 | 78.68 | – |
| Eligible voters | Eligible voters | Eligible voters | 86,863 |
| | Green hold | Green hold | Swing | Swing | +12.50 |
| Source: Elections Canada |||||||
2011 federal election redistributed results :
| Party | Vote | % |
| Green | 28,993 | 46.42 |
| Conservative | 22,785 | 36.48 |
| New Democratic | 6,898 | 11.04 |
| Liberal | 3,787 | 6.06 |
vte2011 Canadian federal election :
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | Expenditures |
| | Green | Elizabeth May | 31,890 | 46.33 | +35.88 | $87,738 |
| | Conservative | Gary Lunn | 24,544 | 35.66 | −7.77 | $89,604 |
| | New Democratic | Edith Loring-Kuhanga | 8,185 | 11.89 | +6.20 | $66,273 |
| | Liberal | Renée Hetherington | 4,208 | 6.11 | −33.25 | $50,002 |
| Total valid votes/expense limit | Total valid votes/expense limit | Total valid votes/expense limit | 68,827 | 100.0 | | $293,617 |
| Total rejected ballots | Total rejected ballots | Total rejected ballots | 160 | 0.23 |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 68,987 | 75.25 |
| Eligible voters | Eligible voters | Eligible voters | 91,673 |
| | Green gain from Conservative | Green gain from Conservative | Swing | Swing | +21.82 |
vte2008 Canadian federal election :
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Conservative | Gary Lunn | 27,988 | 43.43 | +6.28 |
| | Liberal | Briony Penn | 25,367 | 39.36 | +13.28 |
| | Green | Andrew Lewis | 6,732 | 10.45 | +0.51 |
| | New Democratic | Julian West | 3,667 | 5.69 | −20.85 |
| | Libertarian | Dale P. Leier | 246 | 0.38 | – |
| | Western Block | Patricia O'Brien | 195 | 0.3 | +0.03 |
| | Canadian Action | Jeremy Arney | 139 | 0.2 | – |
| | Christian Heritage | Dan Moreau | 114 | 0.2 | – |
| Total valid votes | Total valid votes | Total valid votes | 64,448 | 100.0 |
| Total rejected ballots | Total rejected ballots | Total rejected ballots | 179 | 0.27 |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 64,639 | 70.40 |
| | Conservative hold | Conservative hold | Swing | Swing | −3.50 |
| Julian West was selected as the New Democratic Party candidate for the 2008 election, but withdrew after the filing deadline following a scandal. Due to the late withdrawal his name remained on the ballot. |||||||
vte2006 Canadian federal election :
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | Expenditures |
| | Conservative | Gary Lunn | 24,416 | 37.15 | +2.58 | $80,272 |
| | New Democratic | Jennifer Burgis | 17,455 | 26.54 | +4.96 | $50,412 |
| | Liberal | Sheila Orr | 17,144 | 26.08 | −0.70 | $79,489 |
| | Green | Andrew Lewis | 6,533 | 9.94 | −6.77 | $19,061 |
| | Western Block | Patricia O'Brien | 183 | 0.27 | – | $0 |
| Total valid votes | Total valid votes | Total valid votes | 65,721 | 100.0 |
| Total rejected ballots | Total rejected ballots | Total rejected ballots | 134 | 0.20 |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 65,855 | 73.2 |
| | Conservative hold | Conservative hold | Swing | Swing | −1.19 |
vte2004 Canadian federal election :
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | Expenditures |
| | Conservative | Gary Lunn | 22,050 | 34.57 | −18.86 | $81,613 |
| | Liberal | David Mulroney | 17,082 | 26.78 | −5.51 | $61,819 |
| | New Democratic | Jennifer Burgis | 13,763 | 21.58 | +13.56 | $40,318 |
| | Green | Andrew Lewis | 10,662 | 16.71 | +11.20 | $79,731 |
| | Independent | Mary Moreau | 214 | 0.33 | – | $12 |
| Total valid votes | Total valid votes | Total valid votes | 63,771 | 100.00 |
| Total rejected ballots | Total rejected ballots | Total rejected ballots | 159 | 0.25 |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 63,930 | 73.97 |
| | Conservative hold | Conservative hold | Swing | Swing | −6.68 |
| Conservative change is from a combination of Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservative votes. |||||||
vte2000 Canadian federal election :
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | Expenditures |
| | Alliance | Gary Lunn | 25,392 | 43.15 | +0.09 | $61,497 |
| | Liberal | Karen Knott | 19,002 | 32.29 | +0.82 | $63,669 |
| | Progressive Conservative | Don Page | 6,049 | 10.28 | +2.76 | $10,385 |
| | New Democratic | Pat O'Neill | 4,721 | 8.02 | −6.31 | $9,666 |
| | Green | Wally Du Temple | 3,243 | 5.51 | +2.77 | $7,217 |
| | Natural Law | Kathleen Lapeyrouse | 217 | 0.36 | −0.07 | $100 |
| | Independent | Dan Moreau | 123 | 0.20 | – | |
| | Communist | Charley Stimac | 88 | 0.14 | – | $189 |
| Total valid votes | Total valid votes | Total valid votes | 58,835 | 100.00 |
| Total rejected ballots | Total rejected ballots | Total rejected ballots | 165 | 0.28 |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 59,000 | 70.60 |
| | Alliance hold | Alliance hold | Swing | Swing | −0.36 |
| Canadian Alliance change is based on the Reform Party. |||||||
vte1997 Canadian federal election :
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | Expenditures |
| | Reform | Gary Lunn | 24,275 | 43.06 | +5.91 | $61,075 |
| | Liberal | Clark Roberts | 17,742 | 31.47 | +5.45 | $59,743 |
| | New Democratic | Chuck Beyer | 8,080 | 14.33 | −4.53 | $29,672 |
| | Progressive Conservative | Marilyn Loveless | 4,243 | 7.52 | −4.00 | $23,349 |
| | Green | Julia Lerner | 1,546 | 2.74 | – | $745 |
| | Natural Law | Andy Guest | 248 | 0.43 | −0.31 | $321 |
| | Canadian Action | Valerie Rampone | 234 | 0.41 | – | $4,335 |
| Total valid votes | Total valid votes | Total valid votes | 56,368 | 100.00 |
| Total rejected ballots | Total rejected ballots | Total rejected ballots | 181 | 0.32 |
| Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | 56,549 | 74.26 |
| | Reform hold | Reform hold | Swing | Swing | +0.23 |
1993 Canadian federal election :
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Reform | Jack Frazer | 26,016 | 37.15 | +24.67 |
| | Liberal | Alex Phillips | 18,226 | 26.02 | +8.40 |
| | New Democratic | Lynn Hunter | 13,207 | 18.86 | -16.54 |
| | Progressive Conservative | Marilyn Loveless | 8,070 | 11.52 | -21.94 |
| | National | Judith Rayburn | 3,730 | 5.33 | – |
| | Natural Law | Andy Guest | 521 | 0.74 | – |
| | Independent | C.R. Bob Ward | 215 | 0.31 | – |
| | Canada Party | Arleigh Rolind | 52 | 0.07 | – |
| Total valid votes | Total valid votes | Total valid votes | 70,037 | 100.0 |
| | Reform gain from New Democratic | Reform gain from New Democratic | Swing | Swing | +8.14 |
1988 Canadian federal election :
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | New Democratic | Lynn Hunter | 23,168 | 35.40 |
| | Progressive Conservative | Patrick D. Crofton | 21,900 | 33.46 |
| | Liberal | Kathryn Clout | 11,534 | 17.62 |
| | Reform | Bob Slavick | 8,165 | 12.48 |
| | Independent | Patrick Kelly | 216 | 0.33 |
| | Libertarian | William St. John Buckler | 214 | 0.33 |
| | Independent | Doug Christie | 172 | 0.26 |
| | Communist | Ernie Knott | 78 | 0.12 |
| Total valid votes | Total valid votes | Total valid votes | 65,447 | 100.0 |
| This riding was created from Esquimalt—Saanich and Cowichan—Malahat—The Islands, which elected a Progressive Conservative and a New Democrat, respectively, in the previous election. Patrick Crofton was the incumbent from Esquimalt—Saanich. |||||||