# 2024 United States Senate election in Missouri

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The 2024 United States Senate election in Missouri was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Missouri. Republican incumbent Josh Hawley was re-elected to a second term, defeating his Democratic challenger Lucas Kunce. Primary elections took place on August 6, 2024.
Hawley was the favorite in the polls throughout the cycle due to the state's Republican lean, though some polls showed a close race. Kunce, who had previously run in 2022, losing narrowly in the Democratic primaries to Trudy Busch Valentine, was seen as a strong candidate who outpaced Hawley in fundraising for much of the race and outspent him in advertising.
Hawley ultimately won re-election with a comfortable 55.57% of the vote to Kunce's 41.84%, improving his 2018 margin by around 8 points. Despite his loss, Kunce outperformed Vice President Kamala Harris by 2 points, while Hawley underperformed Donald Trump by nearly 3 points, making the race slightly closer than the concurrent presidential election.

## Background

From 1904 to 2004, Missouri's electoral votes always went to the winner of the presidential race, with only one exception: in 1956, during the landslide re-election of President Dwight Eisenhower, Missouri went to Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson. The state's accuracy in voting with the national consensus includes the highly competitive elections of 1960, 1976, and 2000.
Missouri is no longer thought of as a perennial swing state, and is today considered to be a strongly red state. Since 1960, the only three Democrats it has backed have been Southerners: Lyndon B. Johnson, Jimmy Carter, and Bill Clinton. In 2008, Missouri narrowly voted for the losing candidate, Republican John McCain, despite a sizable electoral college win for Democrat Barack Obama. In 2012, Missouri favored losing candidate Mitt Romney by nearly 10 percentage points, despite another significant victory for Obama in the rest of the country. In 2016 and 2020, Missouri again voted strongly Republican, this time for Donald Trump by over 15 points, despite Trump losing the latter election. This marked the third time in four presidential elections that Missouri supported a losing Republican. Missouri has not supported any Democratic candidate since Bill Clinton in 1996.
In more recent years, Republicans have experienced significant electoral success in the state. In 2016, the Republican Party secured victories in key statewide positions, including Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, and Treasurer. Building on this momentum, in 2022, Scott Fitzpatrick successfully won the position of Auditor, a seat previously held by Democrat Nicole Galloway. Notably, Nicole Galloway remains the last Democrat to have been elected to a statewide position in the state.
The most recent Democrat to secure election to the Senate from Missouri was Claire McCaskill back in 2012. She sought a third term in 2018, facing off against Josh Hawley, but was ultimately defeated by a margin of 5.8%.
Most pollsters categorized this race as safe for the Republican Party.

## Republican primary
### Candidates
#### Nominee

* Josh Hawley, incumbent U.S. senator

### Endorsements

Organizations
* American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC)
* Senate Conservatives Fund

### Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of July 31, 2024 :
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Josh Hawley (R) | $22,492,767 | $17,267,201 | $5,701,081 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission ||||

### Results

Republican primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Republican | Josh Hawley (incumbent) | 607,602 | 100.0% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 607,602 | 100.0% |

## Democratic primary
### Candidates
#### Nominee

* Lucas Kunce, nonprofit executive and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022

#### Eliminated in primary

* Mita Biswas
* December Harmon, member of the Columbia Police Review Board
* Karla May, state senator (2019–present)

#### Withdrawn

* Wesley Bell, St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney (ran for U.S. House)

### Endorsements

U.S. representatives
* Bill Clay, former U.S. representative from Missouri's 1st congressional district (1969–2001)
State officials
* Jason Kander, former Missouri Secretary of State (2013–2017)
* Joe Maxwell, former lieutenant governor of Missouri (2000–2005)
* Susan Montee, former Missouri State Auditor (2007–2011)
State senators
* Jacob Hummel, 4th district (2017–2019)
State representatives
* LaDonna Appelbaum, 71st district (2019–present)
* Ingrid Burnett, 19th district (2017–present)
* Steve Butz, 81st district (2019–present)
* Kimberly-Ann Collins, 77th district (2021–present)
* Chantelle Nickson-Clark, 67th district (2023–present)
* Adrian Plank, 47th district (2023–present)
Municipal officials
* 4 St. Louis County councilors
* Frank White Jr., Jackson County Executive (2016–present)
Local officials
* Rasheen Aldridge Jr., St. Louis alder from the 14th ward (2023–present) and former state representative from the 78th district (2019–2023)
* Megan Green, president of the St. Louis Board of Aldermen (2022–present)
* Ella Jones, mayor of Ferguson (2020–present) (switched endorsement to Bell)
Individuals
* Jon Bauman, singer and actor
* Andy Cohen, talk show host
* Harry Dunn, former U.S. Capitol Police officer
* Jon Hamm, actor
* Howie Klein, McGill University professor
* Aaron Parnas, lawyer and TikToker
* Heather Digby Parton, political blogger
Labor unions
* American Federation of Government Employees
* International Union of Bricklayers and Allied Craftworkers Missouri
* Kansas City and St. Louis Building and Construction Trades Councils
* IBEW Local 124
* International Association of Fire Fighters Missouri
* 3 International Association of Heat and Frost Insulators and Allied Workers locals
* International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers District 9
* International Brotherhood of Boilermakers Local 83
* International Union of Elevator Constructors Local 12
* International Union of Operating Engineers Local 101
* International Union of Painters and Allied Trades District Council 3
* Iron Workers Local 10
* 4 Laborers' Union locals
* Missouri AFL-CIO
* Missouri State Council of Machinists
* Operative Plasterers' and Cement Masons' International Association Local 518
* SEIU Missouri/Kansas State Council
* SMART Local 2
* 5 Sprinkler Fitters locals
* Teamsters Locals 41 and 541
* Tile, Marble, and Terrazzo Workers Local 18
* UFCW Local 655
* United Union of Roofers, Waterproofers and Allied Workers Locals 2 and 20
Organizations
* End Citizens United
* Freedom, Inc.
* Indivisible St. Louis
* J Street PAC
* League of Conservation Voters
* VoteVets.org
State representatives
* LaKeySha Frazier-Bosley, 79th district (2019–present)
Local officials
* Michael Butler, St. Louis Recorder of Deeds (2018–present), former Missouri Democratic Party Chair (2020–2023), and former state representative from the 79th district (2013–2019)
State officials
* Bob Holden, former governor of Missouri (2001–2005)
State representatives
* Deb Lavender, 98th district (2015–2021, 2023–present)
Municipal officials
* Jean Peters Baker, Jackson County Prosecutor (2011–present), former Missouri Democratic Party Chair (2018–2020), and former state representative from the 39th district (2011)
Local officials
* Ella Jones, mayor of Ferguson (2020–present) (previously endorsed Kunce)
* Sharon Pace, mayor of Northwoods (2021–present) and former state representative from the 74th district (2009–2017)

### Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of July 31, 2024 :
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| December Harmon (D) | $16,524 | $15,578 | $945 |
| Lucas Kunce (D) | $11,193,778 | $6,959,981 | $4,241,078 |
| Karla May (D) | $53,962 | $48,314 | $5,647 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission ||||

### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mita Biswas | December Harmon | Lucas Kunce | Karla May | Undecided |
| Remington Research Group | July 10–11, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | 1% | 4% | 39% | 10% | 46% |

### Results

Democratic primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Democratic | Lucas Kunce | 255,775 | 67.64% |
| | Democratic | Karla May | 87,908 | 23.25% |
| | Democratic | December Harmon | 26,804 | 7.09% |
| | Democratic | Mita Biswas | 7,647 | 2.02% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 378,134 | 100.0% |

## Third-party and independent candidates
### Declared

* Jared Young (Better Party), payroll services executive
* Nathan Kline (Green), executive assistant
* W. C. Young (Libertarian)

### Results

Libertarian primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Libertarian | W.C. Young | 2,437 | 100.0% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 2,437 | 100.0% |

### Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 :
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Jared Young (I) | $364,377 | $253,727 | $110,650 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission ||||

## General election

The two candidates participated in two debates—one alongside third-party opponents and a second one-on-one televised event. Both debates were marked by frequent attacks. Hawley criticized Kunce over an accidental shooting involving a reporter at a campaign event and his refusal to endorse a presidential candidate. Kunce countered by attacking Hawley's involvement in objecting to the certification of the 2020 election and his opposition to abortion rights. 2024 Missouri Amendment 3, which was concurrently on the ballot, passed and legalized abortion in Missouri.
Despite the contentious exchanges, the candidates found some common ground on border security and opposition to deploying U.S. troops to the Middle East.

### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| The Cook Political Report | Solid R | November 9, 2023 |
| Inside Elections | Solid R | November 9, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe R | November 9, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill | Likely R | August 26, 2024 |
| Elections Daily | Safe R | May 4, 2023 |
| CNalysis | Solid R | November 21, 2023 |
| RealClearPolitics | Likely R | August 5, 2024 |
| Split Ticket | Safe R | October 23, 2024 |
| 538 | Solid R | October 26, 2024 |

### Post-primary endorsements

Individuals
* Harrison Butker, NFL kicker
Organizations
* Missouri Farm Bureau PAC
U.S. Representatives
* Adam Kinzinger, former U.S. Representative from IL-16 (2011–2023) (Republican)
Organizations
* Planned Parenthood Action Fund
Newspapers
* The Kansas City Star
* St. Louis Post-Dispatch
Organizations
* National Farmers Union
Individuals
* Andy Cohen, actor
* John Goodman, actor
U.S. Senators
* John Danforth, former U.S. Senator from Missouri (1976–1995) (Republican)

### Polling

Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Josh Hawley (R) | Lucas Kunce (D) | Undecided | Margin |
| FiveThirtyEight | through November 3, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 51.3% | 41.8% | 6.9% | Hawley +9.5% |
| TheHill/DDHQ | through November 3, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 52.6% | 44.5% | 2.9% | Hawley +8.1% |
| Average | Average | Average | 52.0% | 43.2% | 4.8% | Hawley +8.8% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Josh Hawley (R) | Lucas Kunce (D) | Other | Undecided |
| Research Co. | November 2–3, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 52% | 41% | 3% | 4% |
| ActiVote | October 6–27, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 56% | 44% | – | – |
| GQR (D) | October 23–26, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 46% | – | 5% |
| Emerson College | October 22–23, 2024 | 620 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 51% | 41% | 2% | 7% |
| ActiVote | September 1 – October 1, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 54% | 46% | – | – |
| Emerson College | September 12–13, 2024 | 850 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 51% | 40% | 1% | 8% |
| Change Research | September 11–13, 2024 | 1,237 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 41% | 4% | 9% |
| GQR Research (D) | September 6–12, 2024 | 645 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 50% | 46% | 2% | 2% |
| 52% | 48% | – | – |
| Remington Research Group (R) | September 4–5, 2024 | 816 (LV) | – | 52% | 37% | – | 11% |
| YouGov/Saint Louis University | August 8–16, 2024 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 53% | 42% | – | 4% |
| Emerson College | June 17–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 38% | 5% | 10% |
| Remington Research Group (R) | March 6–8, 2024 | 713 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 53% | 39% | – | 8% |
| Emerson College | January 23–28, 2024 | 1,830 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 43% | 30% | 7% | 20% |
| Show Me Victories (D) | October 26–31, 2023 | 407 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 46% | 42% | 4% | 8% |
| Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 491 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 32% | 5% | 17% |
| GQR Research (D) | August 16–19, 2023 | 863 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 43% | – | 12% |
Josh Hawley vs. Wesley Bell
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Josh Hawley (R) | Wesley Bell (D) | Other | Undecided |
| Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 491 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 34% | 5% | 17% |

### Debate

2024 United States Senate election in Missouri debate :
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Democratic | Libertarian | Green | Better |
| Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W Withdrawn | Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W Withdrawn | Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W Withdrawn | Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W Withdrawn | Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W Withdrawn | | | | | |
| Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W Withdrawn | Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W Withdrawn | Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W Withdrawn | Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W Withdrawn | Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W Withdrawn | Hawley | Kunce | Young | Kline | Young |
| 1 | Sep. 20, 2024 | Missouri Press Association | David Lieb | YouTube | P | P | N | P | P |

### Results

2024 United States Senate election in Missouri :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Republican | Josh Hawley (incumbent) | 1,651,907 | 55.57% | 4.19 |
| | Democratic | Lucas Kunce | 1,243,728 | 41.84% | 3.73 |
| | Libertarian | W.C. Young | 35,671 | 1.20% | 0.08 |
| | Better Party | Jared Young | 21,111 | 0.71% | N/A |
| | Green | Nathan Kline | 20,123 | 0.68% | 0.16 |
| | Write-in | Write-in | 19 | 0.00% | |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 2,972,559 | 100.00% | N/A |
| | Republican hold | Republican hold | Republican hold | Republican hold | Republican hold |

#### Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

* Clay (Largest city: Kansas City)

#### Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

* Platte (Largest city: Kansas City)

#### By congressional district

Hawley won six of eight congressional districts.
| District | Hawley | Kunce | Representative |
| 1st | 19% | 77% | Cori Bush (118th Congress) |
| 1st | 19% | 77% | Wesley Bell (119th Congress) |
| 2nd | 50% | 47% | Ann Wagner |
| 3rd | 59% | 39% | Blaine Luetkemeyer (118th Congress) |
| 3rd | 59% | 39% | Bob Onder (119th Congress) |
| 4th | 67% | 31% | Mark Alford |
| 5th | 35% | 62% | Emanuel Cleaver |
| 6th | 65% | 32% | Sam Graves |
| 7th | 68% | 29% | Eric Burlison |
| 8th | 73% | 24% | Jason Smith |