# Opinion polling for the next New Zealand general election

Several polling firms have conducted opinion polls during the term of the 54th New Zealand Parliament (2023–present) for the next New Zealand general election. The regular polls are the quarterly polls produced by Television New Zealand (1 News) conducted by Verian (formerly known as Colmar Brunton and Kantar Public), along with monthly polls by Roy Morgan and by Curia (Taxpayers' Union). Curia Market Research is no longer a member of the Research Association of New Zealand, following complaints and the resignation from RANZ by its principal, David Farrar. The sample size, margin of error, and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.
The current parliament was elected on 14 October 2023. The next election must be held no later than December 2026.

## Party vote

The parties shown in this section are National (NAT), Labour (LAB), Green (GRN), ACT, New Zealand First (NZF), Te Pāti Māori (TPM), and Opportunities (TOP). Other parties may have also registered in some polls, but are not listed in this section.

### Table of polls

| Date | Polling organisation | Sample size | NAT | LAB | GRN | ACT | NZF | TPM | TOP | Others | Lead |
| 1–10 Mar 2025 | Talbot Mills | 1,003 | 31 | 34 | 10 | 10 | 6.1 | 4.4 | – | – | 3 |
| 2–4 Mar 2025 | Taxpayers' Union-Curia | 1,000 | 33.6 | 34.1 | 10 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 |
| 27 Jan – 23 Feb 2025 | Roy Morgan | 888 | 30.5 | 29 | 15.5 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| 3–7 Feb 2025 | 1 News–Verian | 1,002 | 34 | 33 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 1 |
| 2–4 Feb 2025 | Taxpayers' Union-Curia | 1,000 | 31.9 | 31.3 | 13.2 | 10 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| 7–27 Jan 2025 | Talbot Mills | 1,049 | 33 | 34 | 12 | 9 | 5.2 | 4.6 | – | – | 1 |
| 2–26 Jan 2025 | Roy Morgan | 885 | 32.5 | 28.5 | 11.5 | 9 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 4 |
| 9–13 Jan 2025 | Taxpayers' Union-Curia | 1,000 | 29.6 | 30.9 | 9.5 | 10.8 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 |
| 25 Nov – 15 Dec 2024 | Roy Morgan | 885 | 31 | 26 | 13.5 | 13 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 1 | 2.5 | 5 |
| 30 Nov – 4 Dec 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,006 | 37 | 29 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 1.5 | 2 | 8 |
| 1–3 Dec 2024 | Taxpayers' Union-Curia | 1,000 | 34.2 | 26.9 | 8.3 | 13 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 7.3 |
| 22–28 Nov 2024 | Labour–Talbot Mills | | 31 | 32 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 7 | – | – | 1 |
| 26–27 Nov 2024 | The Post–Freshwater Strategy | 1,150 | 34 | 31 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 4 | – | – | 3 |
| 28 Oct – 24 Nov 2024 | Roy Morgan | 866 | 28.5 | 28 | 13.5 | 9 | 6.5 | 9 | 3.5 | 2 | 0.5 |
| 10–19 Nov 2024 | Hīkoi mō te Tiriti protest against Treaty Principles Bill. | Hīkoi mō te Tiriti protest against Treaty Principles Bill. | Hīkoi mō te Tiriti protest against Treaty Principles Bill. | Hīkoi mō te Tiriti protest against Treaty Principles Bill. | Hīkoi mō te Tiriti protest against Treaty Principles Bill. | Hīkoi mō te Tiriti protest against Treaty Principles Bill. | Hīkoi mō te Tiriti protest against Treaty Principles Bill. | Hīkoi mō te Tiriti protest against Treaty Principles Bill. | Hīkoi mō te Tiriti protest against Treaty Principles Bill. | Hīkoi mō te Tiriti protest against Treaty Principles Bill. | Hīkoi mō te Tiriti protest against Treaty Principles Bill. |
| 6–10 Nov 2024 | Taxpayers' Union-Curia | 1,000 | 38.8 | 31.5 | 9.3 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 7.3 |
| 1–10 Nov 2024 | Talbot Mills | | 34 | 33 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 3.3 | – | – | 1 |
| 23 Sep – 20 Oct 2024 | Roy Morgan | 883 | 31 | 29 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 5–9 Oct 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,000 | 37 | 29 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 8 |
| 3–7 Oct 2024 | Taxpayers' Union-Curia | 1,000 | 34.9 | 30.3 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 3 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 4.6 |
| 26 Aug – 22 Sep 2024 | Roy Morgan | 902 | 37.5 | 23 | 14 | 10 | 7.5 | 4 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 14.5 |
| 8–10 Sep 2024 | Taxpayers' Union-Curia | 1,000 | 39 | 26.7 | 11 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 5 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 12.3 |
| 1–10 Sep 2024 | Talbot Mills | | 37 | 32 | 10 | 8 | 6.1 | 3.9 | – | – | 5 |
| 29 Jul – 25 Aug 2024 | Roy Morgan | 898 | 36 | 26.5 | 13 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 9.5 |
| 10–14 Aug 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,001 | 38 | 30 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 2.8 | 8 |
| 24 Jun – 21 Jul 2024 | Roy Morgan | 930 | 32.5 | 24 | 14 | 11 | 6.5 | 6 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 8.5 |
| 4–8 Jul 2024 | Taxpayers' Union-Curia | 1,000 | 37.6 | 25.9 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 11.7 |
| 27 May – 23 Jun 2024 | Roy Morgan | 930 | 35 | 27.5 | 14.5 | 9 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 7.5 |
| 15–19 Jun 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,002 | 38 | 29 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 9 |
| 4–6 Jun 2024 | Taxpayers' Union-Curia | 1,000 | 35.4 | 29.4 | 12.7 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 6 |
| 30 May 2024 | Budget 2024 is delivered. | Budget 2024 is delivered. | Budget 2024 is delivered. | Budget 2024 is delivered. | Budget 2024 is delivered. | Budget 2024 is delivered. | Budget 2024 is delivered. | Budget 2024 is delivered. | Budget 2024 is delivered. | Budget 2024 is delivered. | Budget 2024 is delivered. |
| 22 Apr – 19 May 2024 | Roy Morgan | 925 | 33.5 | 30 | 14 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 3 | 3 | 1.5 | 3.5 |
| 1–10 May 2024 | Talbot Mills | | 35 | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3 |
| 5–7 May 2024 | Taxpayers' Union-Curia | 1,000 | 37.3 | 30 | 10.2 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 3.1 | 7.3 |
| 30 Apr 2024 | Labour–Talbot Mills | | 34 | 33 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 4 | – | – | 1 |
| 20–24 Apr 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,000 | 36 | 30 | 14 | 7 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 3.7 | 6 |
| 25 Mar – 21 Apr 2024 | Roy Morgan | 934 | 36.5 | 24.5 | 13 | 11 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 2–4 Apr 2024 | Taxpayers' Union-Curia | 1,000 | 37.1 | 25.7 | 14.6 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 3 | 11.4 |
| 26 Feb – 24 Mar 2024 | Roy Morgan | 931 | 38 | 23 | 13.5 | 11.5 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1 | 15 |
| 1–10 Mar 2024 | Talbot Mills | 1,000+ | 38 | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | – | – | – | 10 |
| 10 Mar 2024 | Chlöe Swarbrick is elected as co-leader of the Green Party. | Chlöe Swarbrick is elected as co-leader of the Green Party. | Chlöe Swarbrick is elected as co-leader of the Green Party. | Chlöe Swarbrick is elected as co-leader of the Green Party. | Chlöe Swarbrick is elected as co-leader of the Green Party. | Chlöe Swarbrick is elected as co-leader of the Green Party. | Chlöe Swarbrick is elected as co-leader of the Green Party. | Chlöe Swarbrick is elected as co-leader of the Green Party. | Chlöe Swarbrick is elected as co-leader of the Green Party. | Chlöe Swarbrick is elected as co-leader of the Green Party. | Chlöe Swarbrick is elected as co-leader of the Green Party. |
| 3–5 Mar 2024 | Taxpayers' Union-Curia | 1,000 | 37.4 | 25.3 | 11.3 | 10 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 4 | 12.1 |
| 29 Jan – 25 Feb 2024 | Roy Morgan | 935 | 35.5 | 21.5 | 15.5 | 12 | 7.5 | 4 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 14 |
| 21 Feb 2024 | Green Party MP Efeso Collins dies aged 49. | Green Party MP Efeso Collins dies aged 49. | Green Party MP Efeso Collins dies aged 49. | Green Party MP Efeso Collins dies aged 49. | Green Party MP Efeso Collins dies aged 49. | Green Party MP Efeso Collins dies aged 49. | Green Party MP Efeso Collins dies aged 49. | Green Party MP Efeso Collins dies aged 49. | Green Party MP Efeso Collins dies aged 49. | Green Party MP Efeso Collins dies aged 49. | Green Party MP Efeso Collins dies aged 49. |
| 10–14 Feb 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,002 | 38 | 28 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 10 |
| 1–10 Feb 2024 | Talbot Mills | | 38 | 29 | 12 | 7 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 1.4 | – | 9 |
| 1–7 Feb 2024 | Taxpayers' Union-Curia | 1,000 | 39.6 | 27.9 | 9 | 13.7 | 5 | 2.3 | – | 2.5 | 11.7 |
| 30 Jan 2024 | James Shaw announces his intention to resign as co-leader of the Green Party in March 2024. | James Shaw announces his intention to resign as co-leader of the Green Party in March 2024. | James Shaw announces his intention to resign as co-leader of the Green Party in March 2024. | James Shaw announces his intention to resign as co-leader of the Green Party in March 2024. | James Shaw announces his intention to resign as co-leader of the Green Party in March 2024. | James Shaw announces his intention to resign as co-leader of the Green Party in March 2024. | James Shaw announces his intention to resign as co-leader of the Green Party in March 2024. | James Shaw announces his intention to resign as co-leader of the Green Party in March 2024. | James Shaw announces his intention to resign as co-leader of the Green Party in March 2024. | James Shaw announces his intention to resign as co-leader of the Green Party in March 2024. | James Shaw announces his intention to resign as co-leader of the Green Party in March 2024. |
| 8–28 Jan 2024 | Roy Morgan | 947 | 38 | 22 | 15.5 | 7.5 | 6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2 | 16 |
| 8–10 Jan 2024 | Curia | 1,000 | 41 | 28.4 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 3.6 | – | – | 12.6 |
| 27 Nov – 17 Dec 2023 | Roy Morgan | 947 | 36 | 22 | 15.5 | 9.5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 3–5 Dec 2023 | Curia | – | 36.5 | 28.8 | 10.8 | 6.2 | 8.1 | 5 | – | 4.6 | 7.7 |
| 3 Dec 2023 | Raf Manji resigns as leader of The Opportunities Party. | Raf Manji resigns as leader of The Opportunities Party. | Raf Manji resigns as leader of The Opportunities Party. | Raf Manji resigns as leader of The Opportunities Party. | Raf Manji resigns as leader of The Opportunities Party. | Raf Manji resigns as leader of The Opportunities Party. | Raf Manji resigns as leader of The Opportunities Party. | Raf Manji resigns as leader of The Opportunities Party. | Raf Manji resigns as leader of The Opportunities Party. | Raf Manji resigns as leader of The Opportunities Party. | Raf Manji resigns as leader of The Opportunities Party. |
| 27 Nov 2023 | Christopher Luxon is sworn in as Prime Minister of New Zealand. | Christopher Luxon is sworn in as Prime Minister of New Zealand. | Christopher Luxon is sworn in as Prime Minister of New Zealand. | Christopher Luxon is sworn in as Prime Minister of New Zealand. | Christopher Luxon is sworn in as Prime Minister of New Zealand. | Christopher Luxon is sworn in as Prime Minister of New Zealand. | Christopher Luxon is sworn in as Prime Minister of New Zealand. | Christopher Luxon is sworn in as Prime Minister of New Zealand. | Christopher Luxon is sworn in as Prime Minister of New Zealand. | Christopher Luxon is sworn in as Prime Minister of New Zealand. | Christopher Luxon is sworn in as Prime Minister of New Zealand. |
| 30 Oct – 26 Nov 2023 | Roy Morgan | 920 | 37.5 | 21 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 8 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 16.5 |
| 1–6 Nov 2023 | Taxpayers' Union-Curia | 1,000 | 37 | 28.3 | 13.8 | 8.1 | 6 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 8.7 |
| 14 Oct 2023 | 2023 election result | N/A | 38.08 | 26.92 | 11.61 | 8.64 | 6.09 | 3.08 | 2.22 | 3.36 | 11.16 |
| Date | Polling organisation | Sample size | NAT | LAB | GRN | ACT | NZF | TPM | TOP | Others | Lead |

## Preferred prime minister

| Date | Polling organisation | Sample size | Luxon | Hipkins | Swarbrick | Seymour | Peters | Lead |
| 1–10 Mar 2025 | Talbot Mills | 1,003 | 21 | 24 | – | – | – | 3 |
| 2–4 Mar 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 20.3 | 20.7 | 4.8 | 5 | 8.6 | 0.4 |
| 3–7 Feb 2025 | 1 News–Verian | 1,002 | 22 | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| 2–4 Feb 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 20.7 | 17.6 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 8 | 3.1 |
| 7–27 Jan 2025 | Talbot Mills | 1,049 | 24 | 25 | – | – | – | 1 |
| 9–13 Jan 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 24.5 | 15.3 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 9.2 |
| 30 Nov – 4 Dec 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,006 | 24 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 9 |
| 1–3 Dec 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 27.1 | 19.9 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 7.2 |
| 22–28 Nov 2024 | Labour–Talbot Mills | | 22.1 | 22.7 | – | – | – | 0.6 |
| 26–27 Nov 2024 | The Post–Freshwater Strategy | 1,150 | 41 | 42 | – | – | – | 1 |
| 6–10 Nov 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 26.5 | 15.5 | 5.2 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 11 |
| 1–10 Nov 2024 | Talbot Mills | | 25 | 23 | – | – | – | 2 |
| 5–9 Oct 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,000 | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| 3–7 Oct 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 27.7 | 16.9 | 9.9 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 10.8 |
| 8–10 Sep 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 32.7 | 12.6 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 20.1 |
| 1–10 Sep 2024 | Talbot Mills | | 26 | 22 | – | – | – | 4 |
| 10–14 Aug 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,001 | 28 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| 4–8 Jul 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 34.5 | 18.7 | 10.9 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 15.8 |
| 15–19 Jun 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,002 | 23 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| 4–6 Jun 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 25.4 | 20.2 | 8.6 | 5 | 3.8 | 5.2 |
| 1–10 May 2024 | Talbot Mills | | 25 | 25 | – | – | – | Tie |
| 20–24 Apr 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,000 | 23 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 7 |
| 10 Mar 2024 | Chlöe Swarbrick is elected as co-leader of the Green Party. | Chlöe Swarbrick is elected as co-leader of the Green Party. | Chlöe Swarbrick is elected as co-leader of the Green Party. | Chlöe Swarbrick is elected as co-leader of the Green Party. | Chlöe Swarbrick is elected as co-leader of the Green Party. | Chlöe Swarbrick is elected as co-leader of the Green Party. | Chlöe Swarbrick is elected as co-leader of the Green Party. | Chlöe Swarbrick is elected as co-leader of the Green Party. |
| 1–10 Mar 2024 | Talbot Mills | 1,000+ | 24 | 23 | – | – | – | 1 |
| 10–14 Feb 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,002 | 25 | 15 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| 1–10 Feb 2024 | Talbot Mills | | 27 | 23 | – | – | – | 4 |
| 1–7 Feb 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 29 | 19 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 10 |
| 8–10 Jan 2024 | Curia | 1,000 | 31 | 13 | – | – | – | 18 |
| 3–5 Dec 2023 | Curia | | 30 | 22 | – | – | – | 8 |
| 1–6 Nov 2023 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 33 | 18 | 6.3 | 4 | 5 | 15 |

## Government approval rating

| Date | Polling organisation | Sample size | Right direction | Wrong direction | Do not know | Lead |
| 27 Jan – 23 Feb 2025 | Roy Morgan | 888 | 39 | 49 | 12 | 10 |
| 3–7 Feb 2025 | 1 News–Verian | 1,002 | 39 | 50 | 11 | 11 |
| 2–4 Feb 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 34.2 | 50 | 15.8 | 15.8 |
| 2–26 Jan 2025 | Roy Morgan | 885 | 37.5 | 48.5 | 14 | 11 |
| 9–13 Jan 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 39 | 53 | 12 | 14 |
| 25 Nov – 15 Dec 2024 | Roy Morgan | 885 | 35 | 52.5 | 12.5 | 17.5 |
| 26–27 Nov 2024 | The Post–Freshwater Strategy | 1,150 | 35 | 48 | 17 | 13 |
| 28 Oct – 24 Nov 2024 | Roy Morgan | 866 | 46.5 | 42.5 | 11 | 4 |
| 1–10 Nov 2024 | Talbot Mills | | 40 | 46 | 14 | 6 |
| 23 Sep – 20 Oct 2024 | Roy Morgan | 883 | 36.5 | 50.5 | 13 | 14 |
| 26 Aug – 22 Sep 2024 | Roy Morgan | 902 | 39 | 46.5 | 14.5 | 7.5 |
| 1–10 Sep 2024 | Talbot Mills | | 42 | 47 | 11 | 5 |
| 29 Jul – 25 Aug 2024 | Roy Morgan | 898 | 43 | 45.5 | 11.5 | 2.5 |
| 24 Jun – 21 Jul 2024 | Roy Morgan | 930 | 38 | 48 | 14 | 10 |
| 4–8 Jul 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 47.3 | 33.9 | 18.8 | 13.4 |
| 27 May – 23 Jun 2024 | Roy Morgan | 930 | 35.5 | 52.5 | 12 | 17 |
| 22 Apr – 19 May 2024 | Roy Morgan | 925 | 43 | 47 | 10 | 4 |
| 1–10 May 2024 | Talbot Mills | | 38 | 52 | 10 | 14 |
| 5–7 May 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 45.1 | 42.6 | 12.3 | 2.5 |
| 25 Mar–21 Apr 2024 | Roy Morgan | 934 | 34.5 | 49 | 16.5 | 14.5 |
| 26 Feb–24 Mar 2024 | Roy Morgan | 931 | 35 | 54 | 11 | 19 |
| 1–10 Mar 2024 | Talbot Mills | 1,000+ | 40 | 48 | 12 | 8 |
| 3–5 Mar 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 39.5 | 43.4 | 17 | 3.9 |
| 29 Jan – 25 Feb 2024 | Roy Morgan | 935 | 41.5 | 43.5 | 15 | 2 |
| 1–10 Feb 2024 | Talbot Mills | | 43 | 41 | 16 | 2 |
| 1–7 Feb 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 39.7 | 35.2 | 25.1 | 4.5 |
| 8–28 Jan 2024 | Roy Morgan | 947 | 42 | 41 | 17 | 1 |
| 27 Nov – 17 Dec 2023 | Roy Morgan | 947 | 38 | 45 | 17 | 7 |
| 30 Oct – 26 Nov 2023 | Roy Morgan | 920 | 36.5 | 46 | 17.5 | 9.5 |
| 9–12 Nov 2023 | Guardian Essential | 1,193 | 29 | 48 | 23 | 19 |
| 1–6 Nov 2023 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 29 | 49 | 22 | 20 |

## Forecasts

The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party (ACT retains Epsom and Tāmaki, Greens retain Auckland Central, Rongotai and Wellington Central, Te Pāti Māori retains all six of their Māori electorates, etc). Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.
When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.
| Source | Seats in parliament | Seats in parliament | Seats in parliament | Seats in parliament | Seats in parliament | Seats in parliament | Seats in parliament | Likely government formation |
| Source | NAT | LAB | GRN | ACT | NZF | TPM | Total | Likely government formation |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 2–4 Mar 2025 poll | 42 | 42 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| Roy Morgan 27 Jan – 23 Feb 2025 poll | 38 | 36 | 20 | 14 | 8 | 6** | 122 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| 1 News–Verian 3–7 Feb 2025 poll | 43 | 42 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 2–4 Feb 2025 poll | 39 | 39 | 16 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Talbot Mills 7–27 Jan 2025 poll | 40 | 42 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (63) |
| Roy Morgan 2–26 Jan 2025 poll | 40 | 36 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 9–13 Jan 2025 poll | 38 | 39 | 12 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| Roy Morgan 25 Nov – 15 Dec 2024 poll | 39 | 32 | 17 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| 1 News–Verian 30 Nov – 4 Dec 2024 poll | 46 | 36 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1–3 Dec 2024 poll | 44 | 34 | 11 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 120 | National–ACT (61) |
| Labour–Talbot Mills 22–28 Nov 2024 poll | 39 | 40 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| The Post–Freshwater Strategy 26–27 Nov 2024 poll | 42 | 39 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Roy Morgan 28 Oct – 24 Nov 2024 poll | 37 | 36 | 17 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (64) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 6–10 Nov 2024 poll | 48 | 39 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 6*** | 123 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
| Talbot Mills 1–10 Nov 2024 poll | 42 | 41 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Roy Morgan 23 Sep – 20 Oct 2024 poll | 39 | 37 | 18 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| 1 News–Verian 5–9 Oct 2024 poll | 47 | 37 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 3–7 Oct 2024 poll | 44 | 38 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (65) |
| Roy Morgan 26 Aug – 22 Sep 2024 poll | 47 | 29 | 17 | 13 | 9 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (69) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 8–10 Sep 2024 poll | 48 | 33 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
| Talbot Mills 1–10 Sep 2024 poll | 46 | 39 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Roy Morgan 29 Jul – 25 Aug 2024 poll | 45 | 33 | 16 | 12 | 9 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| 1 News–Verian 10–14 Aug 2024 poll | 49 | 38 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Roy Morgan 24 Jun – 21 Jul 2024 poll | 41 | 31 | 18 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 4–8 Jul 2024 poll | 47 | 33 | 16 | 11 | 9 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
| Roy Morgan 27 May – 23 Jun 2024 poll | 44 | 35 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| 1 News–Verian 15–19 Jun 2024 poll | 47 | 36 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 4–6 Jun 2024 poll | 44 | 36 | 16 | 12 | 7 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Roy Morgan 22 Apr – 19 May 2024 poll | 42 | 38 | 17 | 12 | 7 | 6** | 122 | Hung parliament |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 5–7 May 2024 poll | 47 | 37 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| Talbot Mills 30 Apr 2024 poll | 42 | 41 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| 1 News–Verian 20–24 Apr 2024 poll | 48 | 40 | 18 | 9 | 0 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (64) |
| Roy Morgan 25 Mar – 21 Apr 2024 poll | 45 | 31 | 16 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 2–4 Apr 2024 poll | 47 | 32 | 18 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Roy Morgan 29 Jan – 25 Feb 2024 poll | 45 | 27 | 19 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (69) |
| Talbot Mills 1–10 Feb 2024 poll | 47 | 35 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1–7 Feb 2024 poll | 49 | 34 | 11 | 17 | 6 | 6*** | 123 | National–ACT (66) |
| Roy Morgan 8–28 Jan 2024 poll | 49 | 28 | 20 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| Roy Morgan Dec 2023 poll | 46 | 28 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 8** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| Curia 3–5 Dec 2023 poll | 46 | 36 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 120 | National–NZ First–ACT (64) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1–6 Nov 2023 poll | 46 | 35 | 17 | 10 | 8 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| 2023 election result 14 Oct 2023 | 48 | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
    * indicates an overhang seat
* ↑ Forecasted seats are calculated using the Electoral Commission's MMP seat allocation calculator, based on polling results.