# 2016 United States presidential election in Montana

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vte :
The 2016 United States presidential election in Montana was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Montana voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Montana has three electoral votes in the Electoral College.
Trump carried the state by a 20.42% margin of victory, exceeding Mitt Romney's 13.64% margin in 2012 and John McCain's 2.38% margin in 2008. Republicans have won Montana in every presidential election since 1996, and in all but one beginning in 1968. Libertarian nominee and third-party candidate Gary Johnson received 5.6% of the vote.
This was Johnson's fifth strongest state, behind his native New Mexico as well as North Dakota, Alaska, and Oklahoma.

## Primary elections
### Democratic primary

Two candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:
* Bernie Sanders
* Hillary Clinton
Montana Democratic primary, June 7, 2016 :
| Candidate | Popular vote | Popular vote | Estimated delegates | Estimated delegates | Estimated delegates |
| Candidate | Count | Percentage | Pledged | Unpledged | Total |
| Bernie Sanders | 65,156 | 51.56% | 11 | 1 | 12 |
| Hillary Clinton | 55,805 | 44.16% | 10 | 5 | 15 |
| No preference | 5,415 | 4.28% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Uncommitted | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 126,376 | 100% | 21 | 6 | 27 |
| Source: ||||||

### Republican primary

Five candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:
* Jeb Bush (withdrawn)
* Ted Cruz (withdrawn)
* John Kasich (withdrawn)
* Marco Rubio (withdrawn)
* Donald Trump
Montana Republican primary, June 7, 2016 :
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | Actual delegate count | Actual delegate count |
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Bound | Unbound | Total |
| Donald Trump | 115,594 | 73.68% | 27 | 0 | 27 |
| Ted Cruz (withdrawn) | 14,682 | 9.36% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Kasich (withdrawn) | 10,777 | 6.87% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| No preference | 7,369 | 4.70% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marco Rubio (withdrawn) | 5,192 | 3.31% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeb Bush (withdrawn) | 3,274 | 2.09% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Unprojected delegates: | Unprojected delegates: | Unprojected delegates: | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total: | 156,888 | 100.00% | 27 | 0 | 27 |
| Source: The Green Papers ||||||

## General election
### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| CNN | Safe R | November 4, 2016 |
| Cook Political Report | Safe R | November 7, 2016 |
| Electoral-vote.com | Safe R | November 7, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report | Safe R | November 7, 2016 |
| NBC | Lean R | November 7, 2016 |
| RealClearPolitics | Likely R | November 7, 2016 |

### Results

2016 United States presidential election in Montana :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Republican | Donald TrumpMike Pence | 279,240 | 56.17 |
| | Democratic | Hillary ClintonTim Kaine | 177,709 | 35.75 |
| | Libertarian | Gary JohnsonBill Weld | 28,037 | 5.64 |
| | Green | Jill SteinAjamu Baraka | 7,970 | 1.60 |
| | Independent | Evan McMullin (write-in)Nathan Johnson (write-in) | 2,297 | 0.46 |
| | American Delta | Rocky De La FuenteMichael Steinberg | 1,570 | 0.32 |
| | Constitution | Darrell Castle (write-in)Scott Bradley (write-in) | 296 | 0.06 |
| | American | Tom Hoefling (write-in)Steve Schulin (write-in) | 10 | 0.00 |
| | Independent | Laurence Kotlikoff (write-in)Edward Leamer (write-in) | 7 | 0.00 |
| | Independent | Andrew Basiago (write-in)Karen Kinnison (write-in) | 3 | 0.00 |
| | Independent | Robert Buchanan (write-in) | 2 | 0.00 |
| | Independent | Joe Exotic (write-in)Douglas Terranova (write-in) | 1 | 0.00 |
| | Independent | Mike Smith (write-in)Daniel White (write-in) | 1 | 0.00 |
| | Socialist | Mimi Soltysik (write-in)Angela Nicole Walker (write-in) | 1 | 0.00 |
| | Libertarian | Darryl Perry (write-in) | 1 | 0.00 |
| | Independent | Joe Schriner (write-in) | 1 | 0.00 |
| | Independent | Laio Morris (write-in) | 1 | 0.00 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 497,147 | 100% |
| | Republican win | Republican win | Republican win | Republican win |

#### By county

| County | Donald Trump Republican | Donald Trump Republican | Hillary Clinton Democratic | Hillary Clinton Democratic | Various candidates Other parties | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Margin | Total |
| County | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | Total |
| Beaverhead | 3,353 | 69.15% | 1,143 | 23.57% | 353 | 7.28% | 2,210 | 45.58% | 4,849 |
| Big Horn | 1,853 | 43.73% | 2,094 | 49.42% | 290 | 6.85% | -241 | -5.69% | 4,237 |
| Blaine | 1,268 | 47.24% | 1,202 | 44.78% | 214 | 7.98% | 66 | 2.46% | 2,684 |
| Broadwater | 2,348 | 74.94% | 573 | 18.29% | 212 | 6.77% | 1,775 | 56.65% | 3,133 |
| Carbon | 3,748 | 62.56% | 1,828 | 30.51% | 415 | 6.93% | 1,920 | 32.05% | 5,991 |
| Carter | 678 | 86.26% | 70 | 8.91% | 38 | 4.83% | 608 | 77.35% | 786 |
| Cascade | 19,632 | 56.79% | 12,175 | 35.22% | 2,764 | 7.99% | 7,457 | 21.57% | 34,571 |
| Chouteau | 1,679 | 64.50% | 732 | 28.12% | 192 | 7.38% | 947 | 36.38% | 2,603 |
| Custer | 3,657 | 70.53% | 1,176 | 22.68% | 352 | 6.79% | 2,481 | 47.85% | 5,185 |
| Daniels | 730 | 75.88% | 168 | 17.46% | 64 | 6.66% | 562 | 58.42% | 962 |
| Dawson | 3,320 | 75.30% | 787 | 17.85% | 302 | 6.85% | 2,533 | 57.45% | 4,409 |
| Deer Lodge | 1,763 | 41.92% | 2,058 | 48.93% | 385 | 9.15% | -295 | -7.01% | 4,206 |
| Fallon | 1,279 | 86.19% | 154 | 10.38% | 51 | 3.43% | 1,125 | 75.81% | 1,484 |
| Fergus | 4,269 | 73.10% | 1,202 | 20.58% | 369 | 6.32% | 3,067 | 52.52% | 5,840 |
| Flathead | 30,240 | 63.67% | 13,293 | 27.99% | 3,963 | 8.34% | 16,947 | 35.68% | 47,496 |
| Gallatin | 23,802 | 44.23% | 24,246 | 45.05% | 5,771 | 10.72% | -444 | -0.82% | 53,819 |
| Garfield | 653 | 90.95% | 34 | 4.74% | 31 | 4.31% | 619 | 86.21% | 718 |
| Glacier | 1,620 | 31.92% | 3,121 | 61.50% | 334 | 6.58% | -1,501 | -29.58% | 5,075 |
| Golden Valley | 365 | 77.00% | 71 | 14.98% | 38 | 8.02% | 294 | 62.02% | 474 |
| Granite | 1,192 | 67.08% | 472 | 26.56% | 113 | 6.36% | 720 | 40.52% | 1,777 |
| Hill | 3,478 | 53.96% | 2,371 | 36.79% | 596 | 9.25% | 1,107 | 17.17% | 6,445 |
| Jefferson | 4,177 | 62.21% | 1,998 | 29.76% | 539 | 8.03% | 2,179 | 32.45% | 6,714 |
| Judith Basin | 872 | 72.19% | 235 | 19.45% | 101 | 8.36% | 637 | 52.74% | 1,208 |
| Lake | 7,530 | 57.13% | 4,776 | 36.23% | 875 | 6.64% | 2,754 | 20.90% | 13,181 |
| Lewis and Clark | 16,895 | 47.87% | 14,478 | 41.02% | 3,923 | 11.11% | 2,417 | 6.85% | 35,296 |
| Liberty | 698 | 72.63% | 206 | 21.44% | 57 | 5.93% | 492 | 51.19% | 961 |
| Lincoln | 6,729 | 72.12% | 2,041 | 21.88% | 560 | 6.00% | 4,688 | 50.24% | 9,330 |
| Madison | 3,297 | 69.51% | 1,180 | 24.88% | 266 | 5.61% | 2,117 | 44.63% | 4,743 |
| McCone | 862 | 78.72% | 154 | 14.06% | 79 | 7.22% | 708 | 64.66% | 1,095 |
| Meagher | 729 | 74.62% | 193 | 19.75% | 55 | 5.63% | 536 | 54.87% | 977 |
| Mineral | 1,330 | 66.10% | 519 | 25.80% | 163 | 8.10% | 811 | 40.30% | 2,012 |
| Missoula | 22,250 | 36.64% | 31,543 | 51.95% | 6,929 | 11.41% | -9,293 | -15.31% | 60,722 |
| Musselshell | 1,967 | 80.58% | 332 | 13.60% | 142 | 5.82% | 1,635 | 66.98% | 2,441 |
| Park | 4,980 | 53.21% | 3,595 | 38.41% | 784 | 8.38% | 1,385 | 14.80% | 9,359 |
| Petroleum | 278 | 86.34% | 30 | 9.32% | 14 | 4.34% | 248 | 77.02% | 322 |
| Phillips | 1,723 | 79.36% | 318 | 14.65% | 130 | 5.99% | 1,405 | 64.71% | 2,171 |
| Pondera | 1,799 | 66.07% | 738 | 27.10% | 186 | 6.83% | 1,061 | 38.97% | 2,723 |
| Powder River | 884 | 83.95% | 127 | 12.06% | 42 | 3.99% | 757 | 71.89% | 1,053 |
| Powell | 2,029 | 72.62% | 551 | 19.72% | 214 | 7.66% | 1,478 | 52.90% | 2,794 |
| Prairie | 556 | 80.70% | 100 | 14.51% | 33 | 4.79% | 456 | 66.19% | 689 |
| Ravalli | 14,810 | 65.66% | 6,223 | 27.59% | 1,523 | 6.75% | 8,587 | 38.07% | 22,556 |
| Richland | 3,908 | 80.23% | 671 | 13.78% | 292 | 5.99% | 3,237 | 66.45% | 4,871 |
| Roosevelt | 1,797 | 49.21% | 1,560 | 42.72% | 295 | 8.07% | 237 | 6.49% | 3,652 |
| Rosebud | 2,253 | 65.25% | 987 | 28.58% | 213 | 6.17% | 1,266 | 36.67% | 3,453 |
| Sanders | 4,286 | 72.00% | 1,218 | 20.46% | 449 | 7.54% | 3,068 | 51.54% | 5,953 |
| Sheridan | 1,241 | 67.63% | 477 | 25.99% | 117 | 6.38% | 764 | 41.64% | 1,835 |
| Silver Bow | 6,376 | 38.76% | 8,619 | 52.39% | 1,457 | 8.85% | -2,243 | -13.63% | 16,452 |
| Stillwater | 3,661 | 75.13% | 908 | 18.63% | 304 | 6.24% | 2,753 | 56.50% | 4,873 |
| Sweet Grass | 1,595 | 75.70% | 402 | 19.08% | 110 | 5.22% | 1,193 | 56.62% | 2,107 |
| Teton | 2,170 | 68.07% | 808 | 25.35% | 210 | 6.58% | 1,362 | 42.72% | 3,188 |
| Toole | 1,497 | 73.49% | 402 | 19.73% | 138 | 6.78% | 1,095 | 53.76% | 2,037 |
| Treasure | 351 | 79.23% | 59 | 13.32% | 33 | 7.45% | 292 | 65.91% | 443 |
| Valley | 2,698 | 69.29% | 886 | 22.75% | 310 | 7.96% | 1,812 | 46.54% | 3,894 |
| Wheatland | 702 | 74.21% | 179 | 18.92% | 65 | 6.87% | 523 | 55.29% | 946 |
| Wibaux | 463 | 85.58% | 55 | 10.17% | 23 | 4.25% | 408 | 75.41% | 541 |
| Yellowstone | 40,920 | 58.05% | 22,171 | 31.45% | 7,395 | 10.50% | 18,749 | 26.60% | 70,486 |
| Totals | 279,240 | 55.65% | 177,709 | 35.41% | 44,873 | 8.94% | 101,531 | 20.24% | 501,822 |
* Democratic — +12.5-15%
* Democratic — +5-7.5%
* Democratic — +2.5-5%
* Democratic — +0-2.5%
* Republican — +0-2.5%
* Republican — +2.5-5%
* Republican — +5-7.5%
* Republican — +7.5-10%
* Republican — +10-12.5%
* Republican — +12.5-15%
* Republican — +>15%
* Democratic — +12.5-15%
* Democratic — +5-7.5%
* Democratic — +2.5-5%
* Democratic — +0-2.5%
* Republican — +0-2.5%
* Republican — +2.5-5%
* Republican — +5-7.5%
* Republican — +7.5-10%
* Republican — +10-12.5%
* Republican — +12.5-15%
* Republican — +>15%
* Democratic  Hold  Gain from Republican Republican  Hold  Gain from Democratic

##### Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

* Blaine (largest city: Chinook)
* Hill (largest city: Havre)
* Roosevelt (largest city: Wolf Point)

##### Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

* Gallatin (largest city: Bozeman)

#### By congressional district

Due to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated, the At-Large District. This district covers the entire state, and thus is equivalent to the statewide election results.
| District | Trump | Clinton | Representative |
| At-large | 56.17% | 35.25% | Ryan Zinke |

## Analysis

Like every Republican nominee since 1996, Donald Trump carried Montana's three electoral votes. He won by a large margin, and he swept most of the plains counties in eastern Montana, traditionally the most conservative part of the state, by staggering margins sometimes exceeding 60 points. The eastern part of the state has benefited from the recent energy boom in neighboring North Dakota, and its populace is suspicious and disapproving of the environmental movement championed by Democrats in recent elections.
Most counties in the western part of the state were also traditionally Republican, with a ranching-based economy heavily dependent on the raising and production of cattle and hay, particularly in the counties bordering Idaho such as Beaverhead County and Ravalli County. However, an influx of retirees from the West Coast have made the western region more competitive in recent elections.
The only significant counties won by Clinton were Missoula County, where the city of Missoula is located, Gallatin County, where Bozeman is located, and Big Horn County and Glacier County, which are both majority Native American. While sweeping most of the rural, majority white conservative counties of the state, Trump also won in Lewis and Clark County where the capital city of Helena is located, in neighboring Cascade County where Great Falls is located, and in Yellowstone County where the city of Billings is located.
Trump became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Gallatin County since William McKinley in 1900.