# 2006 Maryland gubernatorial election

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Question P :
Government :
vte :
The 2006 Maryland gubernatorial election was held on November 7, 2006. Incumbent Republican governor Bob Ehrlich ran for a second term, but was defeated by the Democratic nominee, Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley. Ehrlich was the only incumbent governor from either party to lose a general election in the 2006 midterms.

## Democratic primary
### Candidates

* Martin O'Malley, Mayor of Baltimore

### Campaign

Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley and Montgomery County Executive Doug Duncan emerged as the two Democratic candidates for governor in late 2005. Early polling indicated that O'Malley would have the advantage in both the Democratic primary and the general election, with a solid lead over Duncan in the primary and a several point lead over Ehrlich in the general.
As the gubernatorial campaign intensified, Duncan withdrew from the race, citing his diagnosis with clinical depression. In the same announcement, he threw his support behind O'Malley and declined to seek another office in the fall. No other Democratic candidate had announced, so O'Malley was unopposed in the primary election.
O'Malley selected Anthony Brown, a black State Delegate from Prince George's County and a veteran of the Iraq War, as his running mate.

### Results

Democratic primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Democratic | Martin O'Malley | 524,671 | 100.00% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 524,671 | 100.00% |

## Republican primary
### Candidates

* Bob Ehrlich, incumbent governor

### Campaign

Ehrlich sought a second term as governor and did not face opposition at any point in the Republican primary. Incumbent lieutenant governor Michael Steele ran for the U.S. Senate instead of seeking a second term as lieutenant governor, so Ehrlich named Maryland Secretary of Disabilities Kristen Cox, who is blind, as his running mate.

### Results

Republican primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Republican | Bob Ehrlich (incumbent) | 213,744 | 100.00% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 213,744 | 100.00% |

## General election
### Candidates

* Martin O'Malley, Mayor of Baltimore (D)
* Bob Ehrlich, incumbent governor of Maryland (R)
* Ed Boyd, temporary employment agency recruiter (G)
* Christopher A. Driscoll (P)

### Campaign

Elected to his first term in 2002, incumbent Republican governor Bob Ehrlich ran for a second term as governor, opposed by the Democratic nominee, Martin O'Malley, the mayor of Baltimore. Both candidates emerged from uncontested primary elections and a contentious election season began.
Early in the campaign, Ehrlich boasted decent approval ratings from Maryland citizens, with a Gonzalez Research poll taken during October 2005 showing him with a 49% approval rating. and The Baltimore Sun poll from November 2005 giving the Governor a 50% approval and a 33% disapproval. However, the unpopularity of the national Republican Party and President George W. Bush dragged Ehrlich's re-election chances down.
Ehrlich launched attack ads that hit O'Malley on crime in Baltimore under his tenure as Mayor, calling the murder rate in Baltimore "awful" and "an embarrassment to the state of Maryland." O'Malley countered with one television ad that featured testimonials from local community leaders, Howard County Executive James N. Robey, Baltimore County Executive James T. Smith Jr. and another ad that attacked Ehrlich for breaking his promise to end parole for violent criminals.
The Washington Post and The Washington Times both endorsed Ehrlich in his bid for re-election, with the Times praising Ehrlich's "brand of moderate conservatism that offers a refreshing contrast" to the state's historically Democratic leanings and the Post called him "a generally proficient, pragmatic governor" and praised him for "successes on transportation, the environment and education."
In turn, The Baltimore Sun endorsed O'Malley, saying, "the progress under the mayor's tenure is clear and irrefutable", and that he addressed "rising crime, failing schools and shrinking economic prospects." O'Malley also called upon the praise given to him by TIME Magazine when they named him one of the country's "Top 5 Big City Mayors."

### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| The Cook Political Report | Tossup | November 6, 2006 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean D (flip) | November 6, 2006 |
| Rothenberg Political Report | Lean D (flip) | November 2, 2006 |
| Real Clear Politics | Tossup | November 6, 2006 |

### Polling

| Source | Date | Martin O'Malley (D) | Bob Ehrlich (R) |
| SurveyUSA | November 5, 2006 | 50% | 47% |
| The Baltimore Sun/Potomac Inc. | November 1, 2006 | 47% | 46% |
| The Wall Street Journal/Zogby | October 31, 2006 | 49.3% | 43.9% |
| Public Opinion Strategies | October 31, 2006 | 46% | 45% |
| Rasmussen | October 30, 2006 | 50% | 47% |
| The Washington Post | October 29, 2006 | 55% | 45% |
| Rasmussen | October 17, 2006 | 53% | 45% |
| USA Today/Gallup | October 6, 2006 | 53% | 41% |
| The Baltimore Sun/Potomac Inc. | September 24, 2006 | 50% | 44% |
| Survey USA | September 20, 2006 | 51% | 44% |
| Rasmussen | September 20, 2006 | 49% | 42% |
| The Wall Street Journal/Zogby | September 11, 2006 | 52.5% | 39.6% |
| The Wall Street Journal/Zogby | August 28, 2006 | 52.0% | 42.2% |
| Rasmussen | August 18, 2006 | 50% | 43% |
| | August 14, 2006 | 41% | 41% |
| The Wall Street Journal/Zogby | July 24, 2006 | 51.3% | 42.2% |
| Rasmussen | July 17, 2006 | 49% | 42% |
| The Baltimore Sun/Potomac Inc. | July 16, 2006 | 46% | 38% |
| The Washington Post | June 25, 2006 | 51% | 40% |
| The Wall Street Journal/Zogby | June 21, 2006 | 53.1% | 39.2% |
| Opinion Works | April 27, 2006 | 46% | 37% |
| Rasmussen | April 21, 2006 | 51% | 42% |
| Gonzales Research | April 18, 2006 | 46% | 41% |
| Rasmussen | January 13, 2006 | 42% | 47% |
| The Wall Street Journal/Zogby | January 13, 2006 | 53% | 40% |
| Rasmussen | November 22, 2005 | 46% | 40% |
| The Baltimore Sun | November 6, 2005 | 48% | 33% |
| The Baltimore Sun | October 25, 2005 | 48% | 42% |
| Rasmussen | July 18, 2005 | 41% | 46% |
| The Baltimore Sun | April 17, 2005 | 45% | 39% |
| The Baltimore Sun | January 2005 | 40% | 40% |

### Results

Maryland gubernatorial election, 2006 :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Democratic | Martin O'Malley | 942,279 | 52.69% | +5.02% |
| | Republican | Bob Ehrlich (incumbent) | 825,464 | 46.16% | −5.39% |
| | Green | Ed Boyd | 15,551 | 0.87% | N/A |
| | Populist | Christopher Driscoll | 3,481 | 0.19% | N/A |
| | Write-in | Write-in | 1,541 | 0.09% | N/A |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 1,788,316 | 100.00% | N/A |
| | Democratic gain from Republican | Democratic gain from Republican | Democratic gain from Republican | Democratic gain from Republican | Democratic gain from Republican |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
* Charles (largest municipality: Waldorf)
* Howard (largest municipality: Columbia)