# 2016 United States Senate election in Arizona

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The 2016 United States Senate election in Arizona was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the U.S. Senate to represent the State of Arizona, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, other elections to the U.S. Senate in other states and elections to the U.S. House of Representatives, as well as various state and local elections.
The Democratic primary was held on March 22, 2016, while the Republican primary election took place on August 30, 2016. After serving in the Arizona State Legislature and U.S. House of Representatives for a number of years, Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick sought to unseat incumbent Republican senator John McCain, who won re-election to his sixth and final term in office.
After hinting in September 2013 that he could retire, McCain subsequently said that the chances he would run again were "pretty good", but his campaign had emphasized that he had not made a decision yet. On April 7, 2015, he announced that he would run for re-election. McCain faced strong primary opposition from the Tea Party, but he ultimately defeated challenger Kelli Ward in the August 30 primary.
McCain won with 53.7% of the vote compared to Kirkpatrick's 40.8%, with 5.5% voting for the Green candidate Gary Swing. Although McCain won reelection by double digits, this was the closest margin of his Senate career. It was also his first election in which he failed to win the traditionally Democratic counties of Coconino and Pima. As of 2024, this was the last time Republicans won a U.S. Senate seat in Arizona, and the last time Maricopa County voted for a Republican Senate candidate. Kirkpatrick would later successfully run again for the U.S. House of Representatives in Arizona's 2nd congressional district in 2018 and 2020.

## Republican primary

John McCain, the 2008 Republican presidential nominee, was re-elected to a fifth term with 59.3% of the vote in 2010. In September 2013 he hinted that he might retire, saying that "[President Obama's] in his last term, I'm probably in mine." When asked if that meant he wouldn't run for re-election, he said, "I don't know. I was trying to make a point. I have to decide in about two years so I don't have to make a decision [now]. I don't want to be one of these old guys that should've shoved off." He then said in October 2013 that he was "seriously thinking" about running for re-election. By April 2014 he had held his first fundraiser and acknowledged that "elements on the right" would like to primary him, which he said was "fine with me... you know me: a fight not joined is a fight not enjoyed... I know that I will be very well-prepared." Jennifer Duffy of The Cook Political Report noted that McCain did not fit the profile of a "complacent, long-serving incumbent", saying: "It's not an easy thing to take him on. He is going to be well-prepared, and he has a well-earned reputation for running really tough campaigns. He raises a lot of money and he puts together a good organization."
In September 2014, McCain began having "serious conversations" with state Republicans, local officials and key supporters about running for re-election. He faced a primary challenge in 2010 from former Congressman J. D. Hayworth, who some felt was the weaker opponent. McCain massively outspent and easily defeated him. However, he could face a stronger challenger in 2016. A survey by Public Policy Polling in March 2014 found that McCain was the most unpopular Senator in the country, with 30% of Arizonans approving of him to 54% who disapproved. His unpopularity was bipartisan, with his approvals at 35%–55% with Republicans, 29%–53% with Democrats and 25%–55% with independents. An April 2014 survey by The Polling Company for Citizens United Political Victory Fund found that 64.2% of Republican primary voters favored "a new person" to 29.3% who thought that "Senator McCain deserves to be re-elected to another six-year term." It also found him trailing in match-ups with a generic primary opponent and against specific opponents (see below).
Further compounding matters for McCain was his relationship with the Arizona Republican Party. After his re-election in 2010, McCain adopted more orthodox conservative stances and attitudes and largely opposed actions of the Obama administration. By 2013, however, he had become a key figure in the Senate for negotiating deals on certain issues in an otherwise partisan environment. By early 2014, McCain's apostasies were enough that the Arizona Republican Party formally censured him for having what they saw as a liberal record that had been "disastrous and harmful". The action had no practical effect but showed that McCain's history of being criticized at the state level as insufficiently conservative was still ongoing. Tea Party leaders have said that they are "sick to death" of McCain and will oppose him if he seeks re-election, with one prominent critic of McCain saying that Arizona conservatives were preparing for a "civil war". However, McCain still had a large warchest – $1.7 million as of June 2014 – and would be helped by Arizona state law, which allows independents to vote in the Republican primary.
By early October 2014, McCain was telling reporters that the odds of his running for re-election were "pretty good", saying that whether or not Republicans retake control of the Senate in the 2014 elections would be a factor in his decision-making, "but it certainly wouldn't be the deciding factor." In late October, it was revealed that McCain had scheduled a meeting with supporters two days after the 2014 midterm elections to "discuss my thoughts on my own re-election in 2016." At that meeting, following the Republican takeover of the Senate, he said that he was "seriously considering" and "leaning towards" running for re-election and will make an announcement in early 2015.
In December 2014, Politico reported that McCain and his allies were waging an "aggressive and systematic campaign" to purge the Arizona Republican Party's apparatus of Tea Party and far-right conservatives who hold "obscure, but influential, local party offices" and replace them with McCain loyalists. The Super PAC "Arizona Grassroots Action" was created, which raised almost $300,000 and supported McCain-allied candidates with mailers and automated phone calls, bringing attention to what were previously low-profile and uncontested races. Before August 26, when elections for party offices were held, almost all of the 3,925 precinct committeemen (who vote for local party chairmen, who in turn make decisions on how the party will spend state and local funds, which candidates receive endorsements or funding etc.) were opposed to McCain. After the elections, 1,531 (39%) were regarded as supportive of McCain. Most notably, Timothy Schwartz, who authored the resolution which censured McCain, was ousted. Schwartz attacked McCain for using his "prominence and money and influence" to "ramrod" his critics and former Maricopa County Republican Party Chairman A.J. LaFaro said that McCain was "vindictive" and engaging in the equivalent of "ethnic cleansing".
Tea Party Congressmen Matt Salmon and David Schweikert had been widely regarded as two of the most serious potential challengers to McCain. The pair, who are close friends, agreed that if one of them decided to run against McCain, the other would not do so, to ensure that the anti-McCain vote wouldn't be split between them. Schweikert has acknowledged that he polled the race in 2014 but was considered the less likely of the two to run – he had much less cash-on-hand than Salmon and admitted that his wife was "not thrilled" at the idea of him running for the Senate. Salmon later stated that he would not challenge McCain in the primary.
In early February, McCain said that he was "most likely" running for re-election and Club for Growth President David McIntosh said that the organization would "watch closely" the primary race, particularly if Salmon or Schweikert ran, and would "do research and polling and determine if there's a path to victory [against McCain]." Towards the end of February, Salmon and Schweikert began to distance themselves from the race, with State Senator Kelli Ward revealing that she was considering a run.
McCain officially announced on April 7, 2015, that he was running for re-election.

### Candidates
#### Declared

* John McCain, incumbent U.S. senator
3* Clair Van Steenwyk, talk radio host, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2012 and candidate for AZ-08 in 2014
* Kelli Ward, former state senator

#### Withdrawn

* Alex Meluskey, printing company owner and FairTax activist
* David Pizer, businessman

#### Declined

* Jan Brewer, former governor of Arizona
* Jeff DeWit, State Treasurer of Arizona
* Trent Franks, U.S. representative
* Paul Gosar, U.S. representative
* Christine Jones, former Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary for Go Daddy and candidate for governor in 2014 (running for AZ-05)
* Martha McSally, U.S. representative and future U.S. senator interim appointee for this seat (2019–2020)
* Matt Salmon, U.S. representative
* David Schweikert, U.S. representative from Arizona's 6th congressional district
* John Shadegg, former U.S. representative
* Grant Woods, former Arizona Attorney General

### Endorsements

Individuals
* John Bolton, 25th United States Ambassador to the United Nations
* Mark Brnovich, Arizona Attorney General
* George W. Bush, 43rd President of the United States
* Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard, 2010 Republican nominee for Senate in California, and 2016 presidential candidate
* Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the United States House of Representatives and former representative of Georgia's 6th congressional district
* Luis Gonzalez, former Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder and notable Cuban-American
* Fred Karger, political consultant and 2012 presidential candidate
* Evan McMullin, former chief policy director for the House Republican Conference in the U.S. House of Representatives, former CIA operations officer and 2016 independent candidate for president
* Reince Priebus, Republican National Committee chairman
* Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts, 2012 Republican nominee for president
* Paul Ryan, Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, U.S representative for Wisconsin's 1st congressional district and 2012 GOP vice presidential nominee
* Donald Trump, 2016 Republican presidential nominee, later 45th President of the United States
Senators
* Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR)
* Senator Joni Ernst (R-IA)
* Senator Jeff Flake (R-AZ)
* Senator Cory Gardner (R-CO)
* Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC)
* Senator David Perdue (R-GA)
* Senator Dan Sullivan (R-AK)
Governors
* Former governor of Arizona Jan Brewer (22nd governor, State of Arizona)
* Governor Doug Ducey, current governor of Arizona
* Governor Jane D. Hull (20th governor, State of Arizona)
* Governor John Kasich (former governor of Ohio)
* Governor Mike Pence of Indiana and 48th vice president of the United States
* Governor Fife Symington (19th governor, State of Arizona)
Mayors
* Mayor Richard Anderson, Kingman, Arizona
* Mayor Gail Barney, Queen Creek, Arizona
* Mayor Robin Boyd, Winslow, Arizona
* Former mayor Barbara Brewer, Payson, Arizona
* Former mayor Greg Bryan, Tusayan, Arizona
* Mayor Cathy Carlat, Peoria, Arizona
* Mayor Tom Claridge, Pima, Arizona
* Mayor Michael Collins, Paradise Valley, Arizona
* Mayor John Doyle, Nogales, Arizona
* Mayor Kenny Evans, Payson, Arizona
* Mayor Vincent Francia, Cave Creek, Arizona
* Mayor Charles German, Camp Verde, Arizona
* Mayor Chris Gibbs, Safford, Arizona
* Mayor John Giles, Mesa, Arizona
* Former mayor Hugh Hallman, Tempe, Arizona
* Mayor Satish Hiremath, Oro Valley, Arizona
* Mayor Ed Honea, Marana, Arizona
* Mayor John Insalaco, Apache Junction, Arizona
* Mayor Robert Irvin, Willcox, Arizona
* Mayor R.E. Isakson, Patagonia, Arizona
* Mayor Diane Joens, Cottonwood, Arizona
* Mayor Alvy Johnson, Fredonia, Arizona
* Former mayor Martin Kuykendall, Prescott, Arizona
* Vice Mayor Sheri Lauritano, Goodyear, Arizona
* Mayor Michael LeVault, Youngtown, Arizona
* Mayor John Lewis, Gilbert, Arizona
* Mayor Georgia Lord, Goodyear, Arizona
* Mayor Cecilia McCollough, Wellton, Arizona
* Mayor Ronnie McDaniel, Star Valley, Arizona
* Mayor Jackie Meck, Buckeye, Arizona
* Mayor Lana Mook, El Mirage, Arizona
* Mayor John Moore, Williams, Arizona
* Mayor Rick Mueller, Sierra Vista, Arizona
* Mayor Douglas Nicholls, Yuma, Arizona
* Mayor Terry Nolan, Dewey-Humboldt, Arizona
* Mayor Harry Oberg, Prescott, Arizona
* Mayor Ryan Patterson, St. Johns, Arizona
* Mayor Les Peterson, Carefree, Arizona
* Mayor Tom Poscharsky, Snowflake, Arizona
* Mayor Bob Rivera, Thatcher, Arizona
* Mayor Jerry Sanchez, San Luis, Arizona
* Mayor Graig Sanderson, Tusayan, Arizona
* Mayor Thomas Schoaf, Litchfield Park, Arizona
* Mayor Daryl Seymore, Show Low, Arizona
* Former Vice Mayor Onnie Shekerjian, Tempe, Arizona
* Mayor Harvy Skoog, Prescott Valley, Arizona
* Mayor Gregory Smith, Pinetop-Lakeside, Arizona
* Former mayor Scott Smith, Mesa, Arizona
* Former mayor Bob Stain, Sierra Vista, Arizona
* Mayor Ken Taylor, Huachuca City, Arizona
* Mayor Jay Tibshraeny, Chandler, Arizona
* Vice Mayor Douglas Treadway, Dewey-Humboldt, Arizona
* Mayor Bobby Tyler, Holbrook, Arizona
* Mayor Billy Waters, Duncan, Arizona
* Mayor Kenneth Weise, Avondale, Arizona
* Former mayor Roger Williams, Pinetop-Lakeside, Arizona
Organizations
* National Border Patrol Council
* National Federation of Independent Business
* National Right to Life
* Organization of Iranian American Communities, U.S.
* United States Hispanic Chamber of Commerce
Individuals
* Robert K. Corbin, former president of the National Rifle Association of America and former Arizona Attorney General
* Lori Klein, former state senator
* Dick Morris, conservative political consultant and commentator
* Paul E. Vallely, retired US Army Major General and senior military analyst for Fox News
Individuals
* Sylvia Allen, President pro tempore of the Arizona Senate
* Nancy Barto, State Senator
* Dave Farnsworth, State Senator
* John Fillmore, former State Representative
* Mark Finchem, state representative
* Jim Gilchrist, co-founder and President of the Minuteman Project
* Louie Gohmert, U.S. representative from Texas
* Gail Griffin, State Senator
* Laura Ingraham, conservative radio host
* Michael Johns, former White House speechwriter, former Heritage Foundation policy analyst, and Tea Party activist
* Anthony Kern, State Representative
* Vince Leach, State Representative
* Mark Levin, conservative radio host
* Richard Mack, former Graham County Sheriff, candidate for TX-21 in 2012 and Libertarian candidate for U.S. Senate in 2006
* Charles Main, Arlington Former Arlington Elementary School Board President
* Thomas Massie, U.S. representative from Kentucky
* Al Melvin, former state senator and candidate for governor in 2014
* Tom Morrissey, former chairman of the Arizona Republican Party and 2014 State Senate candidate
* Jill Norgaard, State Representative
* Ron Paul, 2012 Republican presidential candidate and former US Representative from Texas
* Russell Pearce, former president of the Arizona Senate
* Warren Petersen, state representative
* Carl Seel, former state representative
* Steve Smith, state senator
* Emilena Turley, Queen Creek Town Council member
Organizations
* Americans for Legal Immigration (ALIPAC)
* Gun Owners of America

### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | John McCain | Kelli Ward | Clair Van Steenwyk | Alex Meluskey | Other | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | May 1–3, 2015 | 300 | ± 5.7% | 44% | 31% | — | — | — | 25% |
| Behavior Research Center | October 24 – November 5, 2015 | 577 | ± 4.7% | 41% | 11% | 2% | 1% | — | 45% |
| Behavior Research Center | January 6–17, 2016 | 398 | ± 4.1% | 47% | 11% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 39% |
| Public Policy Polling | May 13–15, 2016 | 443 | ± 4.7% | 39% | 26% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 27% |
| Public Policy Polling | May 13–15, 2016 | 443 | ± 4.7% | 41% | 41% | — | — | — | 17% |
| NMB Research | July 11, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.38% | 47% | 22% | 2% | 6% | — | 23% |
| Data Orbital LLC | August 11, 2016 | 500 | ±4.38% | 50% | 29% | — | — | — | 17% |
| CNN/ORC | August 18–23, 2016 | 413 | ± 5.0% | 55% | 29% | 4% | — | 1% | 3% |
with Jan Brewer
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | John McCain | Jan Brewer | Other | Undecided |
| The Polling Company | April 11–12, 2014 | 600 | ± 4.1% | 29% | 47.7% | — | 23.3% |
with Christine Jones
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | John McCain | Christine Jones | Other | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | May 1–3, 2015 | 300 | ± 5.7% | 48% | 27% | — | 25% |
with Matt Salmon
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | John McCain | Matt Salmon | Other | Undecided |
| The Polling Company | April 11–12, 2014 | 600 | ± 4.1% | 30.3% | 48.2% | — | 21.5% |
| Public Policy Polling | May 1–3, 2015 | 300 | ± 5.7% | 42% | 40% | — | 18% |
with David Schweikert
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | John McCain | David Schweikert | Other | Undecided |
| The Polling Company | April 11–12, 2014 | 600 | ± 4.1% | 33.9% | 40.1% | — | 26% |
| Public Policy Polling | May 1–3, 2015 | 300 | ± 5.7% | 40% | 39% | — | 20% |
Generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | John McCain | A different Republican | Other | Undecided |
| The Polling Company | April 11–12, 2014 | 600 | ± 4.1% | 30.5% | 60.7% | — | 8.8% |
Someone more conservative
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | John McCain | Someone more conservative | Other | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | May 1–3, 2015 | 300 | ± 5.7% | 37% | 51% | — | 12% |

### Results

Republican primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Republican | John McCain | 302,532 | 51.7% |
| | Republican | Kelli Ward | 235,988 | 39.2% |
| | Republican | Alex Meluskey | 31,159 | 5.5% |
| | Republican | Clair Van Steenwyk | 21,476 | 3.6% |
| | Republican | Sean Webster (write-in) | 175 | 0.0% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 591,330 | 100.0% |

## Democratic primary
### Candidates
#### Declared

* Ann Kirkpatrick, U.S. representative

#### Withdrawn

* Leonard Clark, teacher, State House candidate in 2002, 2004, and 2008 and Green Party nominee for AZ-03 in 2010
* Richard Sherzan, retired administrative law judge and former Iowa state representative

#### Declined

* Richard Carmona, former surgeon general and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012
* Fred DuVal, former chairman of the Arizona Board of Regents and nominee for governor in 2014
* Ruben Gallego, U.S. representative
* Phil Gordon, former mayor of Phoenix
* Mark Kelly, retired astronaut and husband of former Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords and future U.S. senator for this seat
* Janet Napolitano, President of the University of California System, former Secretary of Homeland Security and former governor of Arizona
* Greg Stanton, Mayor of Phoenix
* Nan Walden, businesswoman, attorney and former chief of staff to Senator Bill Bradley

### Endorsements

U.S. Senators
* Dennis DeConcini, Arizona (former)
* Kirsten Gillibrand, New York
U.S. Representatives
* Ron Barber, Arizona (former)
* Harry Mitchell, Arizona (former)
* Ed Pastor, Arizona (former)
Organizations
* Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee
* EMILY's List
* Planned Parenthood

### Results

Democratic primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Democratic | Ann Kirkpatrick | 333,586 | 99.8% |
| | Democratic | Axel Bello (write-in) | 508 | 0.2% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 334,094 | 100.0% |

## Green primary
### Candidates
#### Declared

* Gary Swing (write-in)

### Results

Green primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Green | Gary Swing (write-in) | 238 | 100.0% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 238 | 100.0% |

## Libertarian primary
### Candidates

* Merissa Hamilton (write-in)

### Results

Libertarian primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Libertarian | Merissa Hamilton (write-in) | 1,286 | 100.0% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 1,286 | 100.0% |

## General election
### Debates

| Date | Location | McCain | Kirkpatrick | Link |
| October 10, 2016 | Phoenix, Arizona | Participant | Participant | |

### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| The Cook Political Report | Lean R | November 2, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely R | November 7, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report | Likely R | November 3, 2016 |
| Daily Kos | Safe R | November 8, 2016 |

### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | John McCain (R) | Ann Kirkpatrick (D) | Other | Undecided |
| SurveyMonkey | November 1–7, 2016 | 2,609 | ± 4.6% | 50% | 45% | — | 5% |
| Insights West | November 4–6, 2016 | 392 | ± 4.9% | 50% | 42% | — | 9% |
| Data Orbital | November 4–6, 2016 | 550 | ± 4.1% | 56% | 44% | — | 0% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 31–November 6, 2016 | 2,322 | ± 4.6% | 50% | 45% | — | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 28–November 3, 2016 | 1,748 | ± 4.6% | 50% | 45% | — | 5% |
| Data Orbital | November 1–2, 2016 | 550 | ± 4.1% | 52% | 41% | 2% | 6% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 27–November 2, 2016 | 1,461 | ± 4.6% | 50% | 44% | — | 6% |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist | October 30–November 1, 2016 | 719 LV | ± 3.7% | 55% | 39% | 5% | 2% |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist | October 30–November 1, 2016 | 948 RV | ± 3.2% | 55% | 38% | 5% | 2% |
| The Times-Picayune/Lucid | October 28–November 1, 2016 | 1,113 | ± 3.0% | 52% | 40% | — | 8% |
| CNN/ORC | October 27–November 1, 2016 | 769 LV | ± 3.5% | 54% | 41% | 1% | 3% |
| CNN/ORC | October 27–November 1, 2016 | 867 RV | ± 3.5% | 54% | 41% | 3% | 1% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 26–November 1, 2016 | 1,320 | ± 4.6% | 50% | 44% | — | 6% |
| Emerson College | October 29–31, 2016 | 700 | ± 3.6% | 46% | 40% | 6% | 9% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 25–31, 2016 | 1,457 | ± 4.6% | 49% | 46% | — | 5% |
| Data Orbital | October 29–30, 2016 | 550 | ± 4.1% | 49% | 39% | 3% | 10% |
| CBS News/YouGov | October 26–28, 2016 | 994 | ± 4.3% | 43% | 38% | 8% | 11% |
| Monmouth University | October 21–24, 2016 | 401 | ± 4.9% | 50% | 40% | 5% | 4% |
| Washington Post/SurveyMonkey | October 8–16, 2016 | 1,028 | ± 0.5% | 48% | 45% | — | 6% |
| Arizona Republic/Morrison/Cronkite | October 10–15, 2016 | 660 | ± 4.2% | 52% | 40% | 8% | 0% |
| Highground | October 14, 2016 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 45% | 35% | 8% | 9% |
| Emerson College | October 2–4, 2016 | 600 | ± 3.6% | 52% | 36% | 7% | 5% |
| Insights West | September 12–14, 2016 | 484 | ± 4.5% | 53% | 35% | 1% | 11% |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist | September 6–8, 2016 | 649 | ± 3.8% | 57% | 38% | 1% | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling | August 26–28, 2016 | 837 | ± 3.0% | 43% | 43% | — | 15% |
| CNN/ORC | August 18–23, 2016 | 809 LV | ± 3.5% | 52% | 39% | 2% | 2% |
| CNN/ORC | August 18–23, 2016 | 842 RV | ± 3.5% | 52% | 39% | 2% | 2% |
| Public Policy Polling | June 22–23, 2016 | 691 | ± 3.7% | 42% | 40% | — | 19% |
| Greenberg Quinlan Rosner – Democracy Corps | June 11–20, 2016 | 300 | ± 5.7% | 44% | 42% | — | 14% |
| Behavior Research Center | June 6–19, 2016 | 448 | ± 4.7% | 40% | 31% | — | 29% |
| Public Policy Polling | June 8–9, 2016 | 747 | ± 3.6% | 41% | 43% | — | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling | May 13–15, 2016 | 896 | ± 3.3% | 42% | 36% | — | 23% |
| Behavior Research Center | April 4–11, 2016 | 564 | ± 4.2% | 42% | 42% | — | 16% |
| The Merrill Poll | March 7–11, 2016 | 701 | ± 3.7% | 41% | 40% | 3% | 16% |
| Behavior Research Center | January 6–17, 2016 | 590 | ± 4.1% | 38% | 37% | — | 25% |
| Strategies 360 | December 4–9, 2015 | 504 | ± 4.4% | 51% | 36% | — | 13% |
| Behavior Research Center | October 24–November 5, 2015 | 577 | ± 3.8% | 37% | 31% | — | 32% |
| Gravis Marketing | August 13–16, 2015 | 1,433 | ± 2.6% | 48% | 35% | — | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling | May 1–3, 2015 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 42% | 36% | — | 23% |
with John McCain
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | John McCain (R) | Richard Carmona (D) | Other | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | May 1–3, 2015 | 600 | ± 4% | 40% | 34% | — | 25% |
| Public Policy Polling | February 28–March 2, 2014 | 870 | ± 3.3% | 35% | 41% | — | 24% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | John McCain (R) | Fred DuVal (D) | Other | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | May 1–3, 2015 | 600 | ± 4% | 40% | 36% | — | 24% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | John McCain (R) | Gabrielle Giffords (D) | Other | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | February 28–March 2, 2014 | 870 | ± 3.3% | 35% | 42% | — | 23% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | John McCain (R) | Janet Napolitano (D) | Other | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | February 28–March 2, 2014 | 870 | ± 3.3% | 44% | 36% | — | 19% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | John McCain (R) | Kyrsten Sinema (D) | Other | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | May 1–3, 2015 | 600 | ± 4% | 42% | 36% | — | 22% |
with Christine Jones
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Christine Jones (R) | Richard Carmona (D) | Other | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | May 1–3, 2015 | 600 | ± 4% | 36% | 42% | — | 22% |
with Matt Salmon
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Matt Salmon (R) | Richard Carmona (D) | Other | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | May 1–3, 2015 | 600 | ± 4% | 43% | 35% | — | 21% |
with David Schweikert
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | David Schweikert (R) | Richard Carmona (D) | Other | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | May 1–3, 2015 | 600 | ± 4% | 39% | 39% | — | 22% |
with Kelli Ward
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kelli Ward (R) | Ann Kirkpatrick (D) | Other | Undecided |
| Breitbart/Gravis Marketing | August 27, 2016 | 1,244 | ± 2.8% | 53% | 19% | — | 29% |
| Public Policy Polling | May 13–15, 2016 | 896 | ± 3.3% | 37% | 35% | — | 28% |
| Gravis Marketing | August 13–16, 2015 | 1,433 | ± 2.6% | 43% | 38% | — | 19% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kelli Ward (R) | Richard Carmona (D) | Other | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | May 1–3, 2015 | 600 | ± 4% | 36% | 39% | — | 26% |

### Results

United States Senate election in Arizona, 2016 :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Republican | John McCain (incumbent) | 1,359,267 | 53.71% | −5.36% |
| | Democratic | Ann Kirkpatrick | 1,031,245 | 40.75% | +5.97% |
| | Green | Gary Swing | 138,634 | 5.48% | +4.03% |
| | Write-in | Write-in | 1,584 | 0.06% | N/A |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 2,530,730 | 100.0% | N/A |
| | Republican hold | Republican hold | Republican hold | Republican hold | Republican hold |

#### Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

* Coconino (largest municipality: Flagstaff)
* Pima (largest municipality: Tucson)

#### By congressional district

McCain won 7 of 9 congressional districts, including two that elected Democrats.
| District | McCain | Kirkpatrick | Representative |
| 1st | 48.4% | 45.3% | Ann Kirkpatrick |
| 1st | 48.4% | 45.3% | Tom O'Halleran |
| 2nd | 48.8% | 45.6% | Martha McSally |
| 3rd | 40.1% | 54.2% | Raúl Grijalva |
| 4th | 63.8% | 27.6% | Paul Gosar |
| 5th | 62.9% | 31.2% | Matt Salmon |
| 5th | 62.9% | 31.2% | Andy Biggs |
| 6th | 59.5% | 35.3% | David Schweikert |
| 7th | 22.6% | 71.8% | Ruben Gallego |
| 8th | 60.7% | 32.7% | Trent Franks |
| 9th | 47.8% | 46.6% | Kyrsten Sinema |