# 2024 United States presidential election in Hawaii

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The 2024 United States presidential election in Hawaii took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Hawaii voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Hawaii has 4 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.
Hawaii is a Pacific island state with its own unique culture separated from the mainland and is plurality-Asian American. Although Hawaii has been somewhat drifting away from the Democratic Party since 2008, Hawaii has only voted Republican in two presidential elections since gaining statehood, in 1972 and 1984.
Although Harris won the state comfortably, the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, received more than 35% of the vote for the first time since 2004, narrowing the margin by over 6% compared to 2020. It was also the first time since that election in which the Democratic candidate failed to achieve 60% of the vote in all of Hawaii's counties.

## Primary elections
### Democratic caucuses

The Hawaii Democratic caucuses were held on March 6, 2024.
Hawaii Democratic caucus, March 6, 2024 :
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | Actual delegate count | Actual delegate count |
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Bound | Unbound | Total |
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 1,032 | 66.0% | 15 | | 15 |
| Uncommitted | 455 | 29.1% | 7 | | 7 |
| Marianne Williamson | 50 | 3.2% | 0 | | |
| Dean Phillips | 15 | 1.0% | 0 | | |
| Jason Palmer | 6 | 0.4% | 0 | | |
| Armando Perez-Serrato | 5 | 0.3% | 0 | | |
| Total: | 1,563 | 100.00% | 22 | 9 | 31 |

### Republican caucuses

The Hawaii Republican caucuses was held on March 12, 2024, alongside primaries in Idaho, Mississippi, Missouri, and Washington.
Hawaii Republican caucuses, March 12, 2024 :
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | Actual delegate count | Actual delegate count |
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Bound | Unbound | Total |
| Donald Trump | 4,348 | 97.08% | 19 | 0 | 19 |
| Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 68 | 1.52% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 26 | 0.58% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 25 | 0.56% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 8 | 0.18% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 2 | 0.04% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Doug Burgum (withdrawn) | 1 | 0.02% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Stuckenberg | 1 | 0.02% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total: | 4,479 | 100.00% | 19 | 0 | 19 |

## General election

The Democratic Party of Hawaii attempted to disqualify the "ballot access petition" for Kennedy's newly created party, the We the People Party, on the November ballot, though the state Democratic Party was unsuccessful.

### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| The Cook Political Report | Solid D | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections | Solid D | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe D | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill | Safe D | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis | Solid D | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN | Solid D | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist | Safe D | June 12, 2024 |
| 538 | Solid D | June 11, 2024 |
| RCP | Solid D | June 26, 2024 |
| NBC News | Safe D | October 6, 2024 |

### Polling

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Other / Undecided |
| The Bullfinch Group | April 16–23, 2024 | 250 (RV) | ± 6.2% | 57% | 38% | 5% |
| John Zogby Strategies | April 13–21, 2024 | 301 (LV) | – | 55% | 34% | 11% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent | Cornel West Independent | Jill Stein Green | Other / Undecided |
| The Bullfinch Group | April 16–23, 2024 | 250 (RV) | ± 6.2% | 42% | 34% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 13% |
Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent | Other / Undecided |
| John Zogby Strategies | April 13–21, 2024 | 301 (LV) | – | 42% | 48% | 10% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent | Donald Trump Republican | Other / Undecided |
| John Zogby Strategies | April 13–21, 2024 | 301 (LV) | – | 50% | 27% | 23% |

### Results

2024 United States presidential election in Hawaii :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Democratic | Kamala HarrisTim Walz | 313,044 | 60.59 | −3.14 |
| | Republican | Donald TrumpJD Vance | 193,661 | 37.48 | +3.21 |
| | Green | Jill SteinButch Ware | 4,387 | 0.85 | +0.18 |
| | Libertarian | Chase OliverMike ter Maat | 2,733 | 0.53 | −0.43 |
| | Socialism and Liberation | Claudia De la CruzKarina Garcia | 1,940 | 0.38 | N/A |
| | American Solidarity | Peter SonskiLauren Onak | 936 | 0.18 | N/A |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 516,701 | 100.00 | N/A |

#### By county

| County | Kamala Harris Democratic | Kamala Harris Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Donald Trump Republican | Various candidates Other parties | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Margin | Total |
| County | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | Total |
| Hawaii | 52,163 | 62.98% | 28,748 | 34.71% | 1,912 | 2.31% | 23,415 | 28.27% | 82,823 |
| Honolulu | 204,301 | 59.93% | 130,489 | 38.28% | 6,131 | 1.79% | 73,812 | 21.65% | 340,921 |
| Kalawao | 15 | 83.33% | 3 | 16.67% | 0 | 0.00% | 12 | 66.66% | 18 |
| Kauai | 17,675 | 58.79% | 11,803 | 39.26% | 586 | 1.95% | 5,872 | 19.53% | 30,064 |
| Maui | 38,905 | 61.86% | 22,621 | 35.97% | 1,367 | 2.17% | 16,284 | 25.89% | 62,893 |
| Totals | 313,044 | 60.59% | 193,661 | 37.48% | 9,996 | 1.93% | 119,383 | 23.11% | 516,701 |

#### By congressional district

Harris won both congressional districts.
| District | Harris | Trump | Representative |
| 1st | 61.50% | 36.77% | Ed Case |
| 2nd | 59.74% | 38.14% | Jill Tokuda |

## Analysis

Despite still voting overwhelmingly for the Democratic candidate, Hawaii saw a noticeable shift to the right, with every county swinging by over 5%. Trump's margin was the best out of his three runs, having increased in every consecutive election. Trump's increased success in Hawaii was attributed by local political scientists to Hawaii's more moderate political nature and reluctance to embrace progressivism (Hawaii voted 44% against legalizing gay marriage at the same time that it gave Trump only 39% of the vote). It was also attributed to Hawaii's extremely high cost of living, with former blue-collar plantation households in Western Oahu posting some of Trump's strongest gains in the state. As the only majority-Asian state in the union, Hawaii also was affected by the large national shift to the right among Asian-American voters, especially Filipino Americans, who represent one of the largest Asian groups in Hawaii.