# 2024 United States presidential election in Montana

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vte :
The 2024 United States presidential election in Montana took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Montana voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Montana has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.
Trump once again won Montana by 19.93%, an increase from his 16.37% margin of victory in 2020, but slightly under his 20.42% margin from 2016. Prior to the election, all major news organizations considered Montana a safe red state.

## Primary elections
### Democratic primary

The Montana Democratic primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.
Montana Democratic primary, June 4, 2024 :
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | Actual delegate count | Actual delegate count |
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Pledged | Unpledged | Total |
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 94,587 | 91.1% | 20 | | 20 |
| No preference | 9,285 | 8.9% | | | |
| Total: | 103,872 | 100.0% | 20 | 5 | 25 |

### Republican primary

The Montana Republican primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.
Montana Republican primary, June 4, 2024 :
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | Actual delegate count | Actual delegate count |
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Bound | Unbound | Total |
| Donald Trump | 165,678 | 90.9% | 31 | 0 | 31 |
| No Preference | 16,570 | 9.1% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total: | 182,248 | 100.00% | 31 | 0 | 31 |

### Green primary

The Montana Green primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia.
Montana Green primary, June 4, 2024 :
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Delegates |
| No Preference | 495 | 100.00% | 4 |
| Total: | 495 | 100.00% | 4 |
| Source: ||||

## General election
### Candidates

The following presidential candidates have received ballot access in Montana:
* Kamala Harris, Democratic Party
* Donald Trump, Republican Party
* Chase Oliver, Libertarian Party
* Jill Stein, Green Party
* Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Independent (withdrawn)

### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| Cook Political Report | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill | Safe R | May 30, 2023 |
| CNalysis | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist | Safe R | June 12, 2024 |
| 538 | Solid R | September 23, 2024 |
| RCP | Likely R | June 26, 2024 |
| NBC News | Safe R | October 6, 2024 |

### Polling

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Kamala Harris Democratic | Other / Undecided |
| AtlasIntel | November 3–4, 2024 | 752 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 59% | 39% | 2% |
| Emerson College | October 23–25, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 58% | 39% | 3% |
| Emerson College | October 23–25, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 59% | 40% | 1% |
| New York Times/Siena College | October 5–8, 2024 | 656 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 57% | 39% | 4% |
| New York Times/Siena College | October 5–8, 2024 | 656 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 57% | 40% | 3% |
| RMG Research | September 12–19, 2024 | 491 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 59% | 38% | 3% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ David Binder Research (D) | August 25–29, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 56% | 41% | 3% |
| | August 23, 2024 | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. |
| | August 22, 2024 | Democratic National Convention concludes | Democratic National Convention concludes | Democratic National Convention concludes | Democratic National Convention concludes | Democratic National Convention concludes |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | August 13–20, 2024 | 835 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 58% | 35% | 7% |
| | August 19, 2024 | Democratic National Convention begins | Democratic National Convention begins | Democratic National Convention begins | Democratic National Convention begins | Democratic National Convention begins |
| Emerson College | August 5–6, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | 3.0% | 55% | 40% | 5% |
| Emerson College | August 5–6, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | 3.0% | 58% | 43% | – |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Kamala Harris Democratic | Cornel West Independent | Jill Stein Green | Chase Oliver Libertarian | Other / Undecided |
| AtlasIntel | November 3–4, 2024 | 752 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 57% | 37% | – | 2% | 0% | 4% |
| New York Times/Siena College | October 5–8, 2024 | 656 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 56% | 38% | – | 0% | 0% | 6% |
| New York Times/Siena College | October 5–8, 2024 | 656 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 56% | 39% | – | 0% | 0% | 5% |
| Remington Research Group (R) | September 16–20, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 56% | 39% | – | 2% | – | 3% |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Kamala Harris Democratic | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent | Cornel West Independent | Jill Stein Green | Chase Oliver Libertarian | Other / Undecided |
| Montana State University Billings | September 30 – October 16, 2024 | 760 (A) | ± 3.6% | 52% | 34% | 3% | – | 1% | 2% | 8% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | August 13–20, 2024 | 835 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 58% | 31% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% |
| American Pulse Research & Polling | August 10–12, 2024 | 538 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 52% | 38% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 8% |
| Emerson College | August 5–6, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 54% | 39% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Kamala Harris Democratic | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent | Other / Undecided |
| RMG Research | August 6–14, 2024 | 540 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 57% | 39% | 2% | 2% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Other / Undecided |
| Torchlight Strategies (R) | June 22–26, 2024 | 649 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 51% | 35% | 14% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | June 11–13, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 57% | 37% | 6% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) | June 3–5, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 54% | 36% | 10% |
| John Zogby Strategies | April 13–21, 2024 | 301 (LV) | – | 59% | 34% | 7% |
| Emerson College | February 26 – March 2, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 56% | 35% | 9% |
| SurveyUSA | February 12–15, 2024 | 549 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 51% | 29% | 20% |
| Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 447 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 49% | 28% | 23% |
| Change Research (D)/Future Majority (D) | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,451 (RV) | – | 54% | 37% | 9% |
| J.L. Partners | August 12–17, 2023 | 741 (LV) | – | 51% | 39% | 10% |
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 320 (LV) | ± 6.6% | 49% | 36% | 15% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent | Cornel West Independent | Jill Stein Green | Other / Undecided |
| Emerson College | February 26 – March 2, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 28% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 13% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Cornel West Independent | Other / Undecided |
| Change Research (D)/Future Majority (D) | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,451 (RV) | – | 51% | 30% | 7% | 12% |
| Change Research (D)/Future Majority (D) | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,451 (RV) | – | 49% | 28% | 4% | 19% |
Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent | Other / Undecided |
| John Zogby Strategies | April 13–21, 2024 | 301 (LV) | – | 50% | 35% | 15% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent | Joe Biden Democratic | Other / Undecided |
| John Zogby Strategies | April 13–21, 2024 | 301 (LV) | – | 58% | 30% | 12% |
Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ron DeSantis Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Other / Undecided |
| J.L. Partners | August 12–17, 2023 | 741 (LV) | – | 50% | 36% | 14% |
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 320 (LV) | ± 6.6% | 42% | 35% | 23% |

### Results

2024 United States presidential election in Montana :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Republican | Donald TrumpJD Vance | 352,079 | 58.39% | +1.47% |
| | Democratic | Kamala HarrisTim Walz | 231,906 | 38.46% | −2.09% |
| | We the People | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (withdrawn)Nicole Shanahan (withdrawn) | 11,825 | 1.96% | N/A |
| | Libertarian | Chase OliverMike ter Maat | 4,275 | 0.71% | −1.82% |
| | Green | Jill SteinButch Ware | 2,878 | 0.48% | N/A |
| | Independent | Shiva Ayyadurai (write-in)Crystal Ellis (write-in) | 21 | 0.00% | N/A |
| | Write-in | Write-in | 6 | 0.00% | N/A |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 602,990 | 100.00% | N/A |

#### By county

From Secretary of State of Montana
| County | Donald Trump Republican | Donald Trump Republican | Kamala Harris Democratic | Kamala Harris Democratic | Various candidates Other parties | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Margin | Total |
| County | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | Total |
| Beaverhead | 4,058 | 70.04% | 1,543 | 26.63% | 193 | 3.33% | 2,515 | 43.41% | 5,794 |
| Big Horn | 2,188 | 48.95% | 2,112 | 47.25% | 170 | 3.80% | 76 | 1.70% | 4,470 |
| Blaine | 1,526 | 50.55% | 1,348 | 44.65% | 145 | 4.80% | 178 | 5.90% | 3,019 |
| Broadwater | 3,770 | 78.38% | 885 | 18.40% | 155 | 3.22% | 2,885 | 59.98% | 4,810 |
| Carbon | 4,719 | 64.67% | 2,353 | 32.25% | 225 | 3.08% | 2,366 | 32.42% | 7,297 |
| Carter | 760 | 88.99% | 75 | 8.78% | 19 | 2.23% | 685 | 80.21% | 854 |
| Cascade | 22,419 | 59.65% | 14,021 | 37.31% | 1,143 | 3.04% | 8,398 | 22.34% | 37,583 |
| Chouteau | 1,885 | 64.25% | 940 | 32.04% | 109 | 3.71% | 945 | 32.21% | 2,934 |
| Custer | 4,208 | 72.54% | 1,385 | 23.88% | 208 | 3.58% | 2,823 | 48.66% | 5,801 |
| Daniels | 778 | 81.81% | 154 | 16.19% | 19 | 2.00% | 624 | 65.62% | 951 |
| Dawson | 3,627 | 78.20% | 894 | 19.28% | 117 | 2.52% | 2,733 | 58.92% | 4,638 |
| Deer Lodge | 2,329 | 47.82% | 2,376 | 48.79% | 165 | 3.39% | -47 | -0.97% | 4,870 |
| Fallon | 1,303 | 86.46% | 163 | 10.82% | 41 | 2.72% | 1,140 | 75.64% | 1,507 |
| Fergus | 4,965 | 73.97% | 1,522 | 22.68% | 225 | 3.35% | 3,443 | 51.29% | 6,712 |
| Flathead | 41,390 | 65.18% | 20,062 | 31.59% | 2,049 | 3.23% | 21,328 | 33.59% | 63,501 |
| Gallatin | 32,695 | 46.50% | 34,938 | 49.69% | 2,684 | 3.81% | -2,243 | -3.19% | 70,317 |
| Garfield | 756 | 94.50% | 39 | 4.88% | 5 | 0.62% | 717 | 89.62% | 800 |
| Glacier | 1,939 | 38.18% | 2,933 | 57.76% | 206 | 4.06% | -994 | -19.58% | 5,078 |
| Golden Valley | 440 | 85.44% | 67 | 13.01% | 8 | 1.55% | 373 | 72.43% | 515 |
| Granite | 1,537 | 70.63% | 579 | 26.61% | 60 | 2.76% | 958 | 44.02% | 2,176 |
| Hill | 3,871 | 56.89% | 2,634 | 38.71% | 299 | 4.40% | 1,237 | 18.18% | 6,804 |
| Jefferson | 5,544 | 66.85% | 2,516 | 30.34% | 233 | 2.81% | 3,028 | 36.51% | 8,293 |
| Judith Basin | 1,051 | 77.68% | 265 | 19.59% | 37 | 2.73% | 786 | 58.09% | 1,353 |
| Lake | 9,880 | 58.22% | 6,510 | 38.36% | 581 | 3.42% | 3,370 | 19.86% | 16,971 |
| Lewis and Clark | 21,479 | 50.82% | 19,085 | 45.16% | 1,699 | 4.02% | 2,394 | 5.66% | 42,263 |
| Liberty | 752 | 76.11% | 214 | 21.66% | 22 | 2.23% | 538 | 54.45% | 988 |
| Lincoln | 8,909 | 75.57% | 2,615 | 22.18% | 265 | 2.25% | 6,294 | 53.39% | 11,789 |
| Madison | 4,615 | 71.42% | 1,689 | 26.14% | 158 | 2.44% | 2,926 | 45.28% | 6,462 |
| McCone | 931 | 86.04% | 129 | 11.92% | 22 | 2.04% | 802 | 74.12% | 1,082 |
| Meagher | 888 | 75.77% | 256 | 21.84% | 28 | 2.39% | 632 | 53.93% | 1,172 |
| Mineral | 2,049 | 72.33% | 689 | 24.32% | 95 | 3.35% | 1,360 | 48.01% | 2,833 |
| Missoula | 27,306 | 37.52% | 42,903 | 58.95% | 2,564 | 3.53% | -15,597 | -21.43% | 72,773 |
| Musselshell | 2,550 | 84.66% | 396 | 13.15% | 66 | 2.19% | 2,154 | 71.51% | 3,012 |
| Park | 6,128 | 52.30% | 5,224 | 44.58% | 365 | 3.12% | 904 | 7.72% | 11,717 |
| Petroleum | 284 | 87.65% | 37 | 11.42% | 3 | 0.93% | 247 | 76.23% | 324 |
| Phillips | 1,753 | 80.08% | 385 | 17.59% | 51 | 2.33% | 1,368 | 62.49% | 2,189 |
| Pondera | 1,972 | 69.14% | 782 | 27.42% | 98 | 3.44% | 1,190 | 41.72% | 2,852 |
| Powder River | 963 | 87.07% | 131 | 11.84% | 12 | 1.09% | 832 | 75.23% | 1,106 |
| Powell | 2,466 | 75.14% | 710 | 21.63% | 106 | 3.23% | 1,756 | 53.51% | 3,282 |
| Prairie | 546 | 79.25% | 122 | 17.71% | 21 | 3.04% | 424 | 61.54% | 689 |
| Ravalli | 20,617 | 68.66% | 8,485 | 28.26% | 925 | 3.08% | 12,132 | 40.40% | 30,027 |
| Richland | 4,387 | 82.63% | 778 | 14.65% | 144 | 2.72% | 3,609 | 67.98% | 5,309 |
| Roosevelt | 2,055 | 52.50% | 1,680 | 42.92% | 179 | 4.58% | 375 | 9.58% | 3,914 |
| Rosebud | 2,466 | 66.77% | 1,095 | 29.65% | 132 | 3.58% | 1,371 | 37.12% | 3,693 |
| Sanders | 6,150 | 76.19% | 1,705 | 21.12% | 217 | 2.69% | 4,445 | 55.07% | 8,072 |
| Sheridan | 1,321 | 69.09% | 509 | 26.62% | 82 | 4.29% | 812 | 42.47% | 1,912 |
| Silver Bow | 8,110 | 44.50% | 9,386 | 51.50% | 730 | 4.00% | -1,276 | -7.00% | 18,226 |
| Stillwater | 4,699 | 79.56% | 1,056 | 17.88% | 151 | 2.56% | 3,643 | 61.68% | 5,906 |
| Sweet Grass | 1,789 | 75.14% | 525 | 22.05% | 67 | 2.81% | 1,264 | 53.09% | 2,381 |
| Teton | 2,533 | 70.99% | 927 | 25.98% | 108 | 3.03% | 1,606 | 45.01% | 3,568 |
| Toole | 1,571 | 76.78% | 415 | 20.28% | 60 | 2.94% | 1,156 | 56.50% | 2,046 |
| Treasure | 367 | 83.03% | 57 | 12.90% | 18 | 4.07% | 310 | 70.13% | 442 |
| Valley | 3,019 | 74.01% | 935 | 22.92% | 125 | 3.07% | 2,084 | 51.09% | 4,079 |
| Wheatland | 843 | 77.62% | 209 | 19.24% | 34 | 3.14% | 634 | 58.38% | 1,086 |
| Wibaux | 463 | 84.80% | 71 | 13.00% | 12 | 2.20% | 392 | 71.80% | 546 |
| Yellowstone | 50,460 | 62.00% | 28,392 | 34.88% | 2,541 | 3.12% | 22,068 | 27.12% | 81,393 |
| Totals | 352,079 | 58.27% | 231,906 | 38.38% | 20,196 | 3.35% | 120,173 | 19.89% | 604,181 |

##### Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

* Big Horn (largest city: Hardin)
* Blaine (largest city: Chinook)
* Democratic — +2.5-5%
* Democratic — +0-2.5%
* Republican — +0-2.5%
* Republican — +2.5-5%
* Republican — +5-7.5%
* Republican — +7.5-10%
* Republican — +10-12.5%
* Democratic  Hold Republican  Hold  Gain from Democratic

#### By congressional district

Trump won both congressional districts.
| District | Trump | Harris | Representative |
| 1st | 54% | 43% | Ryan Zinke |
| 2nd | 63% | 34% | Matt Rosendale (118th Congress) |
| 2nd | 63% | 34% | Troy Downing (119th Congress) |

## Analysis

Although somewhat less conservative than its neighboring states, Montana — a sparsely-populated state in the Northern Rockies and Great Plains — has not been won by a Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton narrowly did so in 1992, neither has it been competitive at the presidential level since Democrat Barack Obama came up less than 3 points shy of carrying the state in 2008. With the exception of 2008, the state has been carried by Republican presidential candidates by double digits since 2000.
However, despite the state's strong Republican lean, Montana received significant attention from both parties due to the simultaneous U.S. Senate race between incumbent Democrat Jon Tester and Republican challenger Tim Sheehy, which was seen as competitive but favoring Sheehy, who ended up winning by over seven points. Trump's victory is seen to have helped Sheehy win via the coattail effect, thus flipping Montana's last remaining Democratic statewide office into the Republican column.
Trump became the first Republican to win predominantly-Native American Big Horn County since Ronald Reagan in 1980. In addition, his 9.5% victory in Roosevelt County is the best for a presidential Republican since Reagan's 10.5% in 1984; the historically-Democratic county, home to much of the Fort Peck Reservation, has voted for Trump in all three of his election bids. With Clallam County, Washington voting for Harris, Blaine County now holds the longest active bellwether streak in the nation, having last voted for a losing presidential candidate in 1988, its only miss outside of its inaugural election in 1912. Trump also came within just 47 votes of winning Deer Lodge County, thus giving the best performance for a Republican there since Calvin Coolidge last won the county in 1924.