# 2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia

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vte :
The 2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of West Virginia. Democratic Wheeling mayor Glenn Elliott and Republican Governor Jim Justice were seeking their first term in office. Justice succeeded independent incumbent Joe Manchin, who did not seek a third full term. This was the first time since the 1956 special election that a Republican won West Virginia's Class I Senate Seat.
Manchin, a Democrat until his final year in the senate, announced he would not run for re-election shortly before switching to independent. He endorsed Elliott, who won the Democratic nomination with 45% of the vote against political activist Zach Shrewsbury and businessman Don Blankenship. Justice won the Republican nomination with 62% of the vote against Congressman Alex Mooney.
Due to West Virginia's heavy Republican lean, the absence of Manchin, and being held concurrently with a presidential race in a state in which Donald Trump was expected to win by a wide margin, this seat was universally expected to be easily picked up by Republicans in 2024. Elected Republicans last held both of West Virginia's Senate seats in 1931. West Virginia became one of several states to have a younger senior senator (Shelley Moore Capito) and an older junior senator (Justice).

## Background

Manchin saw electoral success through the 2010s, positioning himself as a centrist to conservative Democrat with strong ties to West Virginia, which is now considered a deeply red state at the federal and state levels.
The Republican Party has identified the contest as a top priority in the 2024 election cycle. Amongst the Republicans who ran for this seat are Congressman Alex Mooney and Governor Jim Justice.
Due to the state's heavy partisan lean, the narrow margin by which Manchin was re-elected in 2018, and a likely strong Republican presidential performance on the same ballot, Republicans were favored to win this seat even if Manchin sought re-election. After Justice announced his bid for the seat in April 2023, Elections Daily labeled this race as "Safe Republican" due to his strong polling advantage against Manchin. Since Manchin announced his retirement, all major outlets have rated this seat as an expected easy flip to GOP control. While some Democratic sources hoped that a primary victory by Don Blankenship would spur Manchin to run as an independent, Manchin himself described that notion as a "long, long, long-shot scenario" that ended when Blankenship lost the primary.

## Democratic primary
### Candidates
#### Nominee

* Glenn Elliott, former mayor of Wheeling (2016–2024)

#### Eliminated in primary

* Don Blankenship, former CEO of Massey Energy, Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018, and Constitution nominee for president in 2020
* Zach Shrewsbury, political organizer

#### Declined

* Joe Manchin, incumbent U.S. senator (endorsed Elliott)

### Endorsements

U.S. senators
* Joe Manchin, U.S. senator from West Virginia (2010–2025) (Independent)
Local officials
* Amy Shuler Goodwin, mayor of Charleston (2019–present)
Labor Unions
* West Virginia AFL–CIO
* United Auto Workers
* Communications Workers of America
State legislators
* Anitra Hamilton, state delegate (2023–present)
* Evan Hansen, state delegate (2018–present)
* Danielle Walker, former state delegate (2018–2023)
Individuals
* Howie Klein, former president of Reprise Records (1989–2001) and adjunct professor at McGill University
* Heather Digby Parton, political blogger
Organizations
* Peace Action
* Progressive Democrats of America

### Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of April 24, 2024 :
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Zachary Shrewsbury (D) | $295,678 | $238,895 | $56,782 |
| Glenn Elliott (D) | $125,407 | $60,071 | $65,335 |
| Don Blankenship (D) | $1,000 | $0 | $1,085 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission ||||

### Results

Democratic primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Democratic | Glenn Elliott | 46,176 | 45.40% |
| | Democratic | Zach Shrewsbury | 36,754 | 36.14% |
| | Democratic | Don Blankenship | 18,778 | 18.46% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 101,708 | 100.00% |

## Republican primary
### Candidates
#### Nominee

* Jim Justice, 36th governor of West Virginia (2017–2025)

#### Eliminated in primary

* Bryan Bird, pastor
* Zane Lawhorn, optometrist and perennial candidate
* Don Lindsay
* Bryan McKinney, sales manager
* Janet McNulty, IT professional
* Alex Mooney, U.S. representative for West Virginia's 2nd congressional district (2015–2025)

#### Withdrew

* Chris Rose, coal miner (running for state senate)

#### Declined

* Carol Miller, U.S. representative for West Virginia's 1st congressional district (2019–present) (running for re-election)
* Patrick Morrisey, West Virginia Attorney General (2013–present) and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018 (running for governor)

### Endorsements

Federal officials
* Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)
U.S. senators
* Marsha Blackburn, U.S. senator from Tennessee (2019–present)
* Mitch McConnell, U.S. senator from Kentucky (1985–present) and Senate Minority Leader (2021–2025)
* Shelley Moore Capito, U.S. senator from West Virginia (2015–present)
* Lindsey Graham, U.S. senator from South Carolina (2003–present)
* Tom Cotton, U.S. senator from Arkansas (2015–present)
U.S. representatives
* David McKinley, U.S. representative for West Virginia's 1st congressional district (2011–2023)
State legislators
* Moore Capito, state delegate (2016–2023)
Individuals
* Cathy Justice, educator and First Lady of West Virginia (2017–2025) (candidate’s wife)
Organizations
* BIPAC
* National Republican Senatorial Committee
* Republican Main Street Partnership PAC
* West Virginia Coal Association
U.S. senators
* Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from Texas (2013–present)
* Rand Paul, U.S. senator from Kentucky (2011–present)
* Mike Lee, U.S. senator from Utah (2011–present)
* Jim DeMint, former U.S. senator from South Carolina (2005–2013)
U.S. representatives
* Jim Jordan, U.S. representative for Ohio's 4th congressional district (2007–present)
Statewide officials
* Riley Moore, West Virginia State Treasurer (2021–present)
* Craig Blair, Lieutenant Governor of West Virginia (2021–present)
State legislators
* Eric Householder, Majority Leader of the West Virginia House of Delegates (2023–present)
* Rollan Roberts, state senator from the 9th district (2019–present)
* Chuck Horst, state delegate from the 62nd district (2020–present)
* Patricia Rucker, state senator from the 16th district (2016–present)
* Robert Karnes, state senator from the 11th district (2020–present)
* Chris Pritt, state delegate from the 36th district (2020–present)
* Pat McGeehan, state delegate from the 1st district (2014–present)
Organizations
* Citizens United Political Victory Fund
* Club for Growth
* Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC)
* Eagle Forum
* Republican Liberty Caucus
* Senate Conservatives Fund
* West Virginia Republican Assembly

### Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of April 24, 2024 :
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Jim Justice (R) | $2,956,027 | $2,024,749 | $931,451 |
| Alex Mooney (R) | $3,266,887 | $2,629,525 | $637,362 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission ||||

### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jim Justice | Alex Mooney | Other | Undecided |
| Emerson College | May 2–5, 2024 | 558 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 60% | 30% | 10% | – |
| Research America | April 24 – May 1, 2024 | 407 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 67% | 23% | 7% | 3% |
| Osage Research (R) | April 22–24, 2024 | 400(LV) | ± 4.9% | 49% | 35% | 5% | 11% |
| NMB Research (R) | April 20–22, 2024 | 500(LV) | ± 4.38% | 60% | 24% | – | 16% |
| Research America | April 3–9, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 66% | 24% | 4% | 6% |
| Emerson College | March 19–21, 2024 | 735 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 54% | 17% | 1% | 22% |
| American Pulse Research & Polling (R) | November 13–14, 2023 | 414 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 56% | 20% | 3% | 22% |
| Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R) | September 11–13, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 62% | 23% | – | 15% |
| Research America | August 16–26, 2023 | 402 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 58% | 26% | – | 16% |
| Orion Strategies | June 17–20, 2023 | 651 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 56% | 19% | 9% | 16% |
| East Carolina University | May 22–23, 2023 | 796 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 53% | 12% | – | 35% |
| co/efficient (R) | April 24–25, 2023 | 753 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 17% | – | 38% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jim Justice | Alex Mooney | Patrick Morrisey | Undecided |
| National Public Affairs (R) | March 14–17, 2023 | 360 (LV) | ± 5.2% | 43% | 21% | 10% | 24% |
| Tarrance Group (R) | February 5–7, 2023 | 609 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 53% | 16% | 21% | 8% |

### Results

Republican primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Republican | Jim Justice | 138,307 | 61.84% |
| | Republican | Alex Mooney | 59,348 | 26.54% |
| | Republican | Bryan Bird | 7,001 | 3.13% |
| | Republican | Bryan McKinney | 6,573 | 2.94% |
| | Republican | Zane Lawhorn | 4,517 | 2.02% |
| | Republican | Janet McNulty | 4,404 | 1.97% |
| | Republican | Don Lindsay | 3,503 | 1.57% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 223,653 | 100.00% |

## Other candidates
### Independents
#### Declined

* Joe Manchin, incumbent U.S. senator (endorsed Elliott)

## General election
### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| The Cook Political Report | Solid R (flip) | May 17, 2024 |
| Inside Elections | Solid R (flip) | May 9, 2024 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe R (flip) | April 17, 2024 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill | Safe R (flip) | June 8, 2024 |
| Elections Daily | Safe R (flip) | May 4, 2023 |
| CNalysis | Solid R (flip) | November 21, 2023 |
| RealClearPolitics | Solid R (flip) | August 5, 2024 |
| Split Ticket | Safe R (flip) | October 23, 2024 |
| 538 | Solid R (flip) | October 23, 2024 |

### Post-primary endorsements

U.S. senators
* John Fetterman, U.S. senator from Pennsylvania (2023–present)
Organizations
* National Right to Life Committee

### Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024 :
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Glenn Elliott (D) | $252,262 | $183,127 | $69,135 |
| Jim Justice (R) | $3,680,408 | $2,881,158 | $799,423 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission ||||

### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Glenn Elliott (D) | Jim Justice (R) | Undecided |
| Research America | August 21–27, 2024 | 400 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 28% | 62% | 10% |
| Kaplan Strategies | June 4, 2024 | 464 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 27% | 60% | 13% |
Joe Manchin vs. Jim Justice
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Manchin (D) | Jim Justice (R) | Other | Undecided |
| Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 539 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 28% | 41% | – | 31% |
| Research America | August 16–26, 2023 | 402 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 38% | 51% | – | 11% |
| East Carolina University | May 22–23, 2023 | 957 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 32% | 54% | 1% | 13% |
| co/efficient (R) | April 24–25, 2023 | 974 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 29% | 43% | – | 28% |
| Tarrance Group (R) | February 5–7, 2023 | 609 (LRV) | ± 4.1% | 42% | 52% | – | 5% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | August 24–26, 2022 | 762 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 32% | 47% | – | 21% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 17–20, 2022 | 783 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 41% | 37% | – | 22% |
Joe Manchin vs. Alex Mooney
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Manchin (D) | Alex Mooney (R) | Other | Undecided |
| Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 539 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 37% | 31% | 31% | – |
| Research America | August 16–26, 2023 | 402 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 41% | 14% | – |
| East Carolina University | May 22–23, 2023 | 957 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 40% | 41% | 1% | 18% |
| co/efficient (R) | April 24–25, 2023 | 974 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 30% | – | 34% |
| Tarrance Group (R) | February 5–7, 2023 | 609 (LRV) | ± 4.1% | 55% | 40% | – | 5% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | August 24–26, 2022 | 762 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 38% | 45% | 12% | 5% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 17–20, 2022 | 783 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 28% | 16% | 7% |
Joe Manchin vs. Patrick Morrisey
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Manchin (D) | Patrick Morrisey (R) | Other | Undecided |
| Tarrance Group (R) | February 5–7, 2023 | 609 (LRV) | ± 4.1% | 52% | 42% | – | 6% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | August 24–26, 2022 | 762 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 36% | 50% | 9% | 5% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R) | January 17–20, 2022 | 783 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 29% | 7% | 16% |
Joe Manchin as an Independent vs. Jim Justice
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Manchin (I) | Jim Justice (R) | Undecided |
| Tarrance Group (R) | September 24–26, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 43% | 49% | 8% |

### Results

2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Republican | Jim Justice | 514,079 | 68.75% | +22.49% |
| | Democratic | Glenn Elliott | 207,548 | 27.76% | −21.81% |
| | Libertarian | David Moran | 26,075 | 3.49% | −0.68% |
| | Write-in | Write-in | 15 | 0.00% | N/A |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 747,717 | 100.00% | N/A |
| | Republican gain from Independent | Republican gain from Independent | Republican gain from Independent | Republican gain from Independent | Republican gain from Independent |

#### Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

* Brooke (largest borough: Wellsburg)
* Boone (largest city: Madison)
* Braxton (largest town: Sutton)
* Cabell (largest city: Huntington)
* Fayette (largest city: Fayetteville)
* Gilmer (largest city: Glenville)
* Greenbrier (largest city: Lewisburg)
* Jefferson (largest city: Charles Town)
* Harrison (largest city: Clarksburg)
* Kanawha (largest city: Charleston)
* Lincoln (largest city: Hamlin)
* Marshall (largest city: Moundsville)
* Mason (largest city: Point Pleasant)
* Marion (largest city: Fairmont)
* McDowell (largest city: Welch)
* Mineral (largest municipality: Keyser)
* Monongalia (largest city: Morgantown)
* Ohio (largest city: Wheeling)
* Putnam (largest municipality: Hurricane)
* Randolph (largest city: Elkins)
* Roane (largest city: Spencer)
* Summers (largest city: Hinton)
* Wayne (largest city: Kenova)
* Wetzel (largest city: New Martinsville)
* Wood (largest municipality: Parkersburg)

#### By congressional district

Justice won both congressional districts.
| District | Elliott | Justice | Representative |
| 1st | 27% | 70% | Carol Miller |
| 2nd | 29% | 68% | Alex Mooney (118th Congress) |
| 2nd | 29% | 68% | Riley Moore (119th Congress) |