# Next Basque regional election

The next Basque regional election will be held no later than Sunday, 21 May 2028, to elect the 14th Parliament of the Basque Autonomous Community. All 75 seats in the Parliament will be up for election.

## Overview
### Electoral system

The Basque Parliament is the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of the Basque Country, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Basque Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a lehendakari. Voting for the Parliament is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Basque Country and in full enjoyment of their political rights.
The 75 members of the Basque Parliament are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Álava, Biscay and Gipuzkoa, with each being allocated a fixed number of 25 seats in order to provide for an equal parliamentary representation of the three provinces, as required under the regional statute of autonomy.

### Election date

The term of the Basque Parliament expires four years after the date of its previous election, unless it is dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Basque Country (BOPV), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 21 April 2024, which means that the legislature's term will expire on 21 April 2028. The election decree is required to be published in the BOPV no later than 28 March 2028 with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 21 May 2028.
The lehendakari has the prerogative to dissolve the Basque Parliament at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a lehendakari within a sixty-day period from the Parliament re-assembly, the Parliament is to be dissolved and a fresh election called.

## Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Parliament at the present time of dissolution.
Current parliamentary composition :
| Groups | Groups | Parties | Parties | Legislators | Legislators |
| Groups | Groups | Parties | Parties | Seats | Total |
| | Basque Nationalists Parliamentary Group | | EAJ/PNV | 27 | 27 |
| | EH Bildu Parliamentary Group | | EH Bildu | 27 | 27 |
| | Basque Socialists Parliamentary Group | | PSE–EE (PSOE) | 12 | 12 |
| | Basque People's Parliamentary Group | | PP | 7 | 7 |
| | Mixed Group | | EzAn–IU | 1 | 2 |
| | Mixed Group | | Vox | 1 | 2 |

## Parties and candidates

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.
Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:
| Candidacy | Candidacy | Parties and alliances | Leading candidate | Leading candidate | Ideology | Previous result | Previous result | Gov. | Ref. |
| Candidacy | Candidacy | Parties and alliances | Leading candidate | Leading candidate | Ideology | Votes (%) | Seats | Gov. | Ref. |
| | EAJ/PNV | List Basque Nationalist Party (EAJ/PNV) | | Imanol Pradales | Basque nationalism Christian democracy Social democracy | 34.82% | 27 | Y | |
| | EH Bildu | List Basque Country Gather (EH Bildu) – Create (Sortu) – Basque Solidarity (EA) – Alternative (Alternatiba) | | Pello Otxandiano | Basque independence Abertzale left Socialism | 32.13% | 27 | N | |
| | PSE–EE (PSOE) | List Socialist Party of the Basque Country–Basque Country Left (PSE–EE (PSOE)) | | Eneko Andueza | Social democracy | 14.09% | 12 | Y | |
| | PP | List People's Party (PP) | | Javier de Andrés | Conservatism Christian democracy | 9.18% | 7 | N | |
| | Sumar | List Unite Movement (SMR) Plural Left–United Left (EzAn–IU) – Communist Party of the Basque Country (PCE/EPK) – The Dawn. Marxist Organization OM (La Aurora (om)) – Republican Left (IR) Greens Equo (VQ) More Basque Country–Build the Basque Country (ME/EE) | | Alba García | Progressivism Left-wing populism Green politics | 3.31% | 1 | N | |
| | Vox | List Vox (Vox) | | Amaia Martínez | Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism | 2.03% | 1 | N | |

## Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

### Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 38 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Basque Parliament.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | PNV | | | | | | | Lead |
| Ikerfel/GPS | 28–31 Jan 2025 | 3,030 | 58.2 | 35.3 28 | 32.0 27 | 14.0 11 | 9.2 8 | 2.5 0 | 2.5 0 | 2.0 1 | 3.3 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía | 29 Dec–28 Jan 2025 | 1,450 | ? | 34.5 28 | 31.9 28 | 12.9 10 | 9.1 7 | 2.9 0 | 3.5 2 | 1.6 0 | 2.6 |
| Ikerfel/GPS | 5–8 Nov 2024 | 3,030 | 60.2 | 35.2 28 | 32.0 27 | 14.6 13 | 9.1 7 | 2.6 0 | 2.2 0 | 2.0 0 | 3.2 |
| ElectoPanel/Electomanía | 29 Sep–27 Oct 2024 | 1,450 | ? | 34.0 27 | 31.8 27 | 12.4 10 | 9.5 7 | 3.4 1 | 4.5 3 | 1.7 0 | 2.2 |
| 2024 EP election | 9 Jun 2024 | — | 48.8 | 22.4 (17) | 26.3 (22) | 26.0 (23) | 11.6 (9) | 3.3 (2) | 3.2 (1) | 2.7 (1) | 0.3 |
| 2024 regional election | 21 Apr 2024 | — | 60.0 | 34.8 27 | 32.1 27 | 14.1 12 | 9.2 7 | 3.3 1 | 2.2 0 | 2.0 1 | 2.7 |

### Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | PNV | | | | | | | ? | N | Lead |
| Ikerfel/GPS | 28–31 Jan 2025 | 3,030 | 22.1 | 19.6 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 28.1 | 14.1 | 2.5 |
| Ikerfel/GPS | 5–8 Nov 2024 | 3,030 | 22.9 | 20.1 | 7.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 29.4 | 11.6 | 2.8 |
| 2024 EP election | 9 Jun 2024 | — | 13.1 | 13.3 | 11.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.4 | — | 49.1 | 0.2 |
| 2024 regional election | 21 Apr 2024 | — | 21.6 | 20.0 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.2 | — | 37.5 | 1.6 |