# 1988 United States presidential election in California

Elections in California :
Federal governmentU.S. President
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5th sp
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2026 :
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Legislature Senate
1988
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Assembly
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Judiciary Court of appeals
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State propositions1910–1919
1911
4
7
8
1960–1969
1964
14
1970–1979
1978
6
8
13
1980–1989
1982
8
1986
64
65
1988
98
99
1990–1999
1994
187
1996
196
209
215
218
1998
6
10
227
2000–2009
2000
21
22
36
39
2003
53
54
2004
1A
55
56
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60A
61
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2005
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2006
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2008
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94, 95, 96, and 97
98 and 99
1A
2
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4
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12
2009
1A
1B
1C
1D
1E
1F
2010–2019
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13
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29
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2016
50
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2018
68
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2020–2029
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36
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1988
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San Diego CountySan Diego County Board of supervisors
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Other localities
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Mayoral elections:
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Mayoral elections:
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Mayoral elections:
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vte :
The 1988 United States presidential election in California took place on November 8, 1988, and was part of the 1988 United States presidential election. Voters chose 47 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.
California voted for the Republican nominee, Vice President George H. W. Bush, over the Democratic nominee, Massachusetts governor Michael Dukakis by a margin of 3.57 percent. Bush won forty-four of the state's fifty-eight counties, but the election was kept close by Dukakis’ strong performance in the Bay Area and his victory in Los Angeles, the state's most populated county. Also, Dukakis won at least 31% of the vote in every county and at least 40 percent in forty of them. Much like Vermont in the same year, California was seen by observers as a swing state in this year's presidential election cycle due to fairly close polling.
California weighed in for this election as 4.2% more Democratic than the nation at large. As of the 2024 presidential election, this is the last presidential election in which the state of California was carried by a Republican candidate. From the next election onwards, California would, like fellow West Coast states Oregon and Washington, transition from being swing states to voting consistently for Democratic candidates, forming a "blue wall" of sorts over the next three decades. Oregon and Washington even voted for Dukakis in the election, making this is the only presidential election since 1948 that Oregon and California voted for different candidates, as well as the last presidential election where California voted to the right of both Oregon and Washington. Bush is also the last Republican to carry the following counties in a presidential election: Monterey, Napa, Sacramento, San Benito, and Santa Barbara. Additionally, he is the last Republican to win any county in the Bay Area (Napa), the last Republican to secure at least one-quarter of the vote in San Francisco, the last Republican to win a majority of votes in Imperial County, and the last Republican to secure at least 40% of the vote in Los Angeles County.
Bush became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Sonoma County, a Republican stronghold for most of the 20th century, since Benjamin Harrison in 1888, as well as the first to do so without carrying Los Angeles County, a bellwether county from 1920 to 1984, since Rutherford Hayes in 1876. Due to Bush's victory in California, this was also the most recent presidential election when the state of Texas would not be the biggest electoral vote prize won by the Republican candidate, and likewise for the Democratic nominee in regards to California, which instead was New York.
At the beginning of the campaign season in 1988 Dukakis had held a 16 point lead in California that shrunk as time went on, by the time Dukakis and Bush debated in los Angeles, Bush took a high single digit lead thereafter nearly every single poll had the state as tossup or leaning Bush

## Results

1988 United States presidential election in California :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Electoral votes |
| | Republican | George Herbert Walker Bush | 5,054,917 | 51.13% | 47 |
| | Democratic | Michael Stanley Dukakis | 4,702,233 | 47.56% | 0 |
| | Libertarian | Ron Paul | 70,105 | 0.71% | 0 |
| | Independent | Lenora Fulani | 31,180 | 0.32% | 0 |
| | American Independent | James C. Griffin | 27,818 | 0.28% | 0 |
| | No party | David Duke (write-in) | 483 | 0.00% | 0 |
| | No party | Eugene McCarthy (write-in) | 234 | 0.00% | 0 |
| | No party | Herbert G. Lewin (write-in) | 58 | 0.00% | 0 |
| | No party | Write-in | 25 | 0.00% | 0 |
| | No party | Larry Holmes (write-in) | 11 | 0.00% | 0 |
| Invalid or blank votes | Invalid or blank votes | Invalid or blank votes | | | — |
| Totals | Totals | Totals | 9,887,064 | 100.00% | 47 |
| Voter turnout | Voter turnout | Voter turnout | | | — |

### By county

| County | George H.W. Bush Republican | George H.W. Bush Republican | Michael Dukakis Democratic | Michael Dukakis Democratic | Various candidates Other parties | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Margin | Total votes cast |
| County | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | Total votes cast |
| Alameda | 162,815 | 33.99% | 310,283 | 64.78% | 5,899 | 1.23% | -147,468 | -30.79% | 478,997 |
| Alpine | 306 | 55.43% | 230 | 41.67% | 16 | 2.90% | 76 | 13.76% | 552 |
| Amador | 6,893 | 55.87% | 5,197 | 42.12% | 248 | 2.01% | 1,696 | 13.75% | 12,338 |
| Butte | 40,143 | 56.04% | 30,406 | 42.45% | 1,082 | 1.51% | 9,737 | 13.59% | 71,631 |
| Calaveras | 7,640 | 56.28% | 5,674 | 41.80% | 260 | 1.92% | 1,966 | 14.48% | 13,574 |
| Colusa | 3,077 | 59.49% | 2,022 | 39.10% | 73 | 1.41% | 1,055 | 20.39% | 5,172 |
| Contra Costa | 158,652 | 47.86% | 169,411 | 51.10% | 3,448 | 1.04% | -10,759 | -3.24% | 331,511 |
| Del Norte | 3,714 | 49.73% | 3,587 | 48.03% | 167 | 2.24% | 127 | 1.70% | 7,468 |
| El Dorado | 30,021 | 59.33% | 19,801 | 39.13% | 781 | 1.54% | 10,220 | 20.20% | 50,603 |
| Fresno | 94,835 | 49.95% | 92,635 | 48.79% | 2,400 | 1.26% | 2,200 | 1.16% | 189,870 |
| Glenn | 4,944 | 62.06% | 2,894 | 36.33% | 128 | 1.61% | 2,050 | 25.73% | 7,966 |
| Humboldt | 21,460 | 41.15% | 29,781 | 57.11% | 905 | 1.74% | -8,321 | -15.96% | 52,146 |
| Imperial | 12,889 | 55.16% | 10,243 | 43.84% | 233 | 1.00% | 2,646 | 11.32% | 23,365 |
| Inyo | 5,042 | 64.34% | 2,653 | 33.85% | 142 | 1.81% | 2,389 | 30.49% | 7,837 |
| Kern | 90,550 | 61.48% | 55,083 | 37.40% | 1,660 | 1.12% | 35,467 | 24.08% | 147,293 |
| Kings | 12,118 | 56.41% | 9,142 | 42.56% | 222 | 1.03% | 2,976 | 13.85% | 21,482 |
| Lake | 9,366 | 48.03% | 9,828 | 50.39% | 308 | 1.58% | -462 | -2.36% | 19,502 |
| Lassen | 5,157 | 58.59% | 3,446 | 39.15% | 199 | 2.26% | 1,711 | 19.44% | 8,802 |
| Los Angeles | 1,239,716 | 46.88% | 1,372,352 | 51.89% | 32,603 | 1.23% | -132,636 | -5.01% | 2,644,671 |
| Madera | 13,255 | 54.59% | 10,642 | 43.83% | 384 | 1.58% | 2,613 | 10.76% | 24,281 |
| Marin | 46,855 | 39.73% | 69,394 | 58.85% | 1,671 | 1.42% | -22,539 | -19.12% | 117,920 |
| Mariposa | 3,768 | 54.53% | 2,998 | 43.39% | 144 | 2.08% | 770 | 11.14% | 6,910 |
| Mendocino | 12,979 | 41.94% | 17,152 | 55.42% | 816 | 2.64% | -4,173 | -13.48% | 30,947 |
| Merced | 21,717 | 51.20% | 20,105 | 47.40% | 592 | 1.40% | 1,612 | 3.80% | 42,414 |
| Modoc | 2,518 | 62.68% | 1,416 | 35.25% | 83 | 2.07% | 1,102 | 27.43% | 4,017 |
| Mono | 2,177 | 61.38% | 1,284 | 36.20% | 86 | 2.42% | 893 | 25.18% | 3,547 |
| Monterey | 50,022 | 49.83% | 48,998 | 48.81% | 1,361 | 1.36% | 1,024 | 1.02% | 100,381 |
| Napa | 23,235 | 50.19% | 22,283 | 48.14% | 772 | 1.67% | 952 | 2.05% | 46,290 |
| Nevada | 21,383 | 57.76% | 14,980 | 40.46% | 660 | 1.78% | 6,403 | 17.30% | 37,023 |
| Orange | 586,230 | 67.75% | 269,013 | 31.09% | 10,064 | 1.16% | 317,217 | 36.66% | 865,307 |
| Placer | 42,096 | 59.59% | 27,516 | 38.95% | 1,030 | 1.46% | 14,580 | 20.64% | 70,642 |
| Plumas | 4,603 | 51.06% | 4,251 | 47.15% | 161 | 1.79% | 352 | 3.91% | 9,015 |
| Riverside | 199,979 | 59.46% | 133,122 | 39.58% | 3,247 | 0.96% | 66,857 | 19.88% | 336,348 |
| Sacramento | 201,832 | 51.01% | 188,557 | 47.65% | 5,301 | 1.34% | 13,275 | 3.36% | 395,690 |
| San Benito | 5,578 | 54.11% | 4,559 | 44.23% | 171 | 1.66% | 1,019 | 9.88% | 10,308 |
| San Bernardino | 235,167 | 59.99% | 151,118 | 38.55% | 5,723 | 1.46% | 84,049 | 21.44% | 392,008 |
| San Diego | 523,143 | 60.19% | 333,264 | 38.34% | 12,788 | 1.47% | 189,879 | 21.85% | 869,195 |
| San Francisco | 72,503 | 26.14% | 201,887 | 72.78% | 3,004 | 1.08% | -129,384 | -46.64% | 277,394 |
| San Joaquin | 75,309 | 54.39% | 61,699 | 44.56% | 1,445 | 1.05% | 13,610 | 9.83% | 138,453 |
| San Luis Obispo | 46,613 | 55.85% | 35,667 | 42.73% | 1,187 | 1.42% | 10,946 | 13.12% | 83,467 |
| San Mateo | 109,261 | 42.94% | 141,859 | 55.74% | 3,360 | 1.32% | -32,598 | -12.80% | 254,480 |
| Santa Barbara | 77,524 | 54.24% | 63,586 | 44.48% | 1,830 | 1.28% | 13,938 | 9.76% | 142,940 |
| Santa Clara | 254,442 | 46.99% | 277,810 | 51.30% | 9,276 | 1.71% | -23,368 | -4.31% | 541,528 |
| Santa Cruz | 37,728 | 36.77% | 63,133 | 61.53% | 1,750 | 1.70% | -25,405 | -24.76% | 102,611 |
| Shasta | 32,402 | 59.36% | 21,171 | 38.79% | 1,012 | 1.85% | 11,231 | 20.57% | 54,585 |
| Sierra | 860 | 50.71% | 791 | 46.64% | 45 | 2.65% | 69 | 4.07% | 1,696 |
| Siskiyou | 9,056 | 50.88% | 8,365 | 47.00% | 376 | 2.12% | 691 | 3.88% | 17,797 |
| Solano | 50,314 | 47.43% | 54,344 | 51.23% | 1,430 | 1.34% | -4,030 | -3.80% | 106,088 |
| Sonoma | 67,725 | 41.91% | 91,262 | 56.48% | 2,596 | 1.61% | -23,537 | -14.57% | 161,583 |
| Stanislaus | 51,648 | 53.07% | 44,685 | 45.92% | 982 | 1.01% | 6,963 | 7.15% | 97,315 |
| Sutter | 14,100 | 67.47% | 6,557 | 31.09% | 241 | 1.14% | 7,543 | 36.38% | 20,898 |
| Tehama | 9,854 | 56.52% | 7,213 | 41.37% | 367 | 2.11% | 2,641 | 15.15% | 17,434 |
| Trinity | 3,267 | 54.63% | 2,518 | 42.11% | 195 | 3.26% | 749 | 12.52% | 5,980 |
| Tulare | 46,891 | 59.61% | 30,711 | 39.04% | 1,067 | 1.35% | 16,180 | 20.57% | 78,669 |
| Tuolumne | 10,646 | 54.00% | 8,717 | 44.22% | 352 | 1.78% | 1,929 | 9.78% | 19,715 |
| Ventura | 147,604 | 61.64% | 89,065 | 37.19% | 2,804 | 1.17% | 58,539 | 24.45% | 239,473 |
| Yolo | 22,358 | 41.89% | 30,429 | 57.01% | 585 | 1.10% | -8,071 | -15.12% | 53,372 |
| Yuba | 8,937 | 61.37% | 5,444 | 37.38% | 182 | 1.25% | 3,493 | 23.99% | 14,563 |
| Total | 5,054,917 | 51.13% | 4,702,233 | 47.56% | 129,914 | 1.31% | 352,684 | 3.57% | 9,887,064 |

#### Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

* Humboldt
* Sonoma
* Mendocino
* San Mateo
* Los Angeles
* Santa Clara
* Solano
* Contra Costa
* Lake

### By congressional district

Bush won 23 of the 45 congressional districts, including five held by Democrats.
| District | Bush | Dukakis | Representative |
| 1st | 43.9% | 56.1% | Douglas H. Bosco |
| 2nd | 59.0% | 41.0% | Wally Herger |
| 3rd | 50.4% | 49.6% | Bob Matsui |
| 4th | 51.5% | 48.5% | Vic Fazio |
| 5th | 28.0% | 72.0% | Nancy Pelosi |
| 6th | 35.2% | 64.8% | Barbara Boxer |
| 7th | 46.1% | 53.9% | George Miller |
| 8th | 29.4% | 70.6% | Ron Dellums |
| 9th | 42.4% | 57.6% | Pete Stark |
| 10th | 44.2% | 55.8% | Don Edwards |
| 11th | 41.3% | 58.7% | Tom Lantos |
| 12th | 50.1% | 49.9% | Tom Campbell |
| 13th | 49.8% | 50.2% | Norman Mineta |
| 14th | 59.8% | 40.2% | Norman D. Shumway |
| 15th | 52.8% | 47.2% | Tony Coelho |
| 16th | 45.0% | 55.0% | Leon Panetta |
| 17th | 59.4% | 40.6% | Chip Pashayan |
| 18th | 46.5% | 53.5% | Richard Lehman |
| 19th | 54.7% | 45.3% | Bob Lagomarsino |
| 20th | 65.3% | 34.7% | Bill Thomas |
| 21st | 65.1% | 34.9% | Elton Gallegly |
| 22nd | 64.7% | 35.3% | Carlos Moorhead |
| 23rd | 43.5% | 56.5% | Anthony Beilenson |
| 24th | 34.3% | 65.7% | Henry Waxman |
| 25th | 32.1% | 67.9% | Edward Roybal |
| 26th | 44.1% | 55.9% | Howard Berman |
| 27th | 44.8% | 55.2% | Mel Levine |
| 28th | 26.4% | 73.6% | Julian Dixon |
| 29th | 19.3% | 80.7% | Augustus Hawkins |
| 30th | 46.6% | 53.4% | Matthew Martinez |
| 31st | 34.8% | 65.2% | Mervyn Dymally |
| 32nd | 50.4% | 49.6% | Glenn Anderson |
| 33rd | 63.1% | 36.9% | David Dreier |
| 34th | 49.1% | 50.9% | Ed Torres |
| 35th | 66.2% | 33.8% | Jerry Lewis |
| 36th | 52.0% | 48.0% | George Brown |
| 37th | 61.5% | 38.5% | Al McCandless |
| 38th | 61.7% | 38.3% | Bob Dornan |
| 39th | 71.5% | 28.5% | William Dannemeyer |
| 40th | 68.7% | 31.3% | Christopher Cox |
| 41st | 59.1% | 40.9% | Bill Lowery |
| 42nd | 65.7% | 34.3% | Dana Rohrabacher |
| 43rd | 68.8% | 31.2% | Ron Packard |
| 44th | 47.9% | 52.1% | Jim Bates |
| 45th | 66.8% | 33.2% | Duncan Hunter |

## Analysis

California voted Republican in 1988 for the 9th time out of 10 elections from 1952 on, confirming its status as a Republican electoral bulwark during this period. However, George H. W. Bush won California by only 3.57% even as he won nationally by 7.72%; and Florida displaced it as the state providing the Republican with his biggest raw-vote margin in the nation. Signs of the phenomena that would come to make California a 'Blue Wall' state from 1992 on emerged in this election; for the first time since 1916, Los Angeles County voted for the loser of the national election. Bush was also nearly swept out of the Bay Area, losing populous former Republican strongholds such as Santa Clara, San Mateo, Sonoma, and Marin Counties (as well as Santa Cruz County, the northernmost Central Coast county). While Bush continued to do well in San Diego, Orange, and Ventura Counties (and, to a lesser extent, Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, and Monterey Counties, as well as in relatively thinly populated Napa County), this represented a significant erosion of the Republican Party's traditional base along the length of California's coast. By 2016 and 2020, this process was complete, as every coastal county in the state save Del Norte voted Democratic two elections in a row.
On the other hand, in contrast to the 1976, 1968, 1960, and 1948 elections in California, all of which had been close (and which had been won by the Democrat in 1948), Dukakis carried little of inland California, which had traditionally been the Democratic base in the state. Counties that had voted Democratic in all four of those elections, but voted Republican in 1988, included Sacramento, Fresno, Placer, Merced, Shasta, Madera, Amador, Lassen, Plumas, Trinity, and Sierra Counties. Apart from Sacramento, Fresno, and Merced Counties, these have continued to remain as Republican strongholds in the state even as overall it has become increasingly blue in the 21st century. Comparing 1988 directly with what at the time was the most recent close election in California, 1976, Dukakis carried only nine of the 27 counties Carter carried in the state. Three of these (Shasta, Plumas, and Sierra) had even voted for McGovern in the disastrous Democratic defeat of 1972.