# 2024 United States Senate election in Virginia

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2024 :
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vte :
The 2024 United States Senate election in Virginia was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Virginia. Democratic incumbent Tim Kaine won re-election to a third term, defeating Republican former U.S. Navy captain Hung Cao. Primary elections took place on June 18, 2024.

## Background

Virginia is considered to be a moderately blue state at the federal level, with Joe Biden carrying Virginia by about 10 percentage points in the 2020 presidential election. Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats, a majority in its U.S. representative congressional delegation, and the minimum majority in both houses of the Virginia General Assembly. However, Republicans flipped all three statewide constitutional offices in the 2021 elections.
Kaine was first elected in 2012 by 6 points, defeating former U.S. Senator George Allen, and won re-election in 2018 by 16 points. Republicans have not won a U.S. Senate race in Virginia since 2002.
This race was considered to be clearly favoring Kaine as he is popular amongst Virginian voters and typically over-performs other down-ballot candidates.

## Democratic primary
### Candidates
#### Nominee

* Tim Kaine, incumbent U.S. senator (2013–present)

### Endorsements

U.S representatives
* Gabby Giffords, U.S. representative from Arizona's 8th congressional district (2007–2012)
Individuals
* Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez, labor organizer and president of NextGen America PAC (2021–present)
Organizations
* Feminist Majority PAC
* Giffords
* Harvard College Democrats
* Humane Society Legislative Fund
* Jewish Democratic Council of America
* Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
* J Street PAC
* League of Conservation Voters
* LGBT Democrats of Virginia
* National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare PAC
* Natural Resources Defense Council
* NextGen America PAC
* Population Connection Action Fund
* Sierra Club
Labor unions
* United Mine Workers of America

### Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of May 29, 2024 :
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Tim Kaine (D) | $14,583,509 | $8,488,125 | $8,615,046 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission ||||

## Republican primary
### Candidates

Hung Cao, the eventual Republican nominee, was embroiled in multiple controversies. Following the partial collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge after being struck by a container ship, Cao blamed Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg for the accident, claiming that Buttigieg "spends more time talking about racial equity with regard to highways and about climate change than about focusing on the fundamentals of keeping our country and our infrastructure working." Later, Cao claimed that Monterey, California is "a very dark place now, a lot of witchcraft, and the Wiccan community has really taken over there," adding that "we can't let that happen in Virginia."
In February 2023, Cao announced the formation of a PAC called Unleash America, with the PAC's goal being "to get Republicans elected" in the House of Delegates elections and State Senate elections in 2023. However, in April 2024, the Staunton-based publication The News Leader published an article claiming that none of the $103,489 raised by the PAC was spent on state house or state senate elections, but were instead spent on Cao's Senate bid. Cao would respond by denouncing the article as a "hit job" by a "podunk local newspaper" that he claimed was run by "left-wing hacks." In a virtual town hall hosted by the Fauquier County Republican Committee, Cao would also say that it would be "ridonkulous" and "crazy" for him to “drive six and a half hours down to Abingdon or something like that and to stand there with four other dudes and to have 30 seconds to answer questions." His comments have drawn backlash and accusations of being dismissive to rural portions of the commonwealth.
Despite these controversies, Cao was endorsed by former president Donald Trump for the Republican nomination. He would later win the parties nomination easily.

#### Nominee

* Hung Cao, former U.S. Navy captain and nominee for Virginia's 10th congressional district in 2022

#### Eliminated in primary

* Jonathan Emord, constitutional lawyer
* Eddie Garcia, financial advisor and former congressional aide
* Scott Parkinson, former Club for Growth vice president of government affairs and former chief of staff to Ron DeSantis
* Chuck Smith, former chair of the Virginia Beach Republican Party, nominee for Virginia's 3rd congressional district in 2010, and candidate for attorney general in 2017 and 2021

### Endorsements

U.S. Presidents
* Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)
Governors
* Bob McDonnell, Former Governor of Virginia (2010–2014)
Individuals
* Oliver North, former President of the National Rifle Association of America (2018–2019), nominee for this seat in 1994
U.S. representatives
* Ron Paul, former U.S. representative from TX-14 (1976–1977, 1979–1985, 1997–2013) (Libertarian)
* Barry Goldwater Jr., former U.S. representative from CA-20 (1969–1983)
U.S. senators
* Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from Texas (2013–present)
* Jim DeMint, U.S. senator from South Carolina (2005–2013)
* Mike Lee, U.S. senator from Utah (2011–present)
* Tommy Tuberville, U.S. senator from Alabama (2021–present)
U.S. representatives
* Jim Banks, U.S. representative from Indiana (2017–present)
* Andy Biggs, U.S. representative from Arizona (2017–present)
* Dan Bishop, U.S. representative from North Carolina (2019–present)
* Lauren Boebert, U.S. representative from Colorado (2021–present)
* Josh Brecheen, U.S. representative from Oklahoma (2023–present)
* Eli Crane, U.S. representative from Arizona (2023–present)
* Bob Good. U.S. representative from Virginia (2021–present)
* Byron Donalds, U.S. representative from Florida (2021–present)
* Mary Miller, U.S. representative from Illinois (2021–present)
* Barry Moore, U.S. representative from Alabama (2021–present)
* Anna Paulina Luna, U.S. representative from Florida (2023–present)
* Scott Perry, U.S. representative from Pennsylvania (2013–present)
* August Pfluger, U.S. representative from Texas (2021–present)
* Matt Rosendale, U.S. representative from Montana (2021–present)
* Jason Smith, U.S. representative from Missouri (2013–present)
Individuals
* David Bossie, president of Citizens United
Organizations
* Citizens United
State legislators
* Amanda Chase, former state senator from the 11th district (2016–2024)

### Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of May 29, 2024 :
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Hung Cao (R) | $2,508,562 | $2,398,405 | $202,637 |
| Jonathan Emord (R) | $932,828 | $897,923 | $34,905 |
| Eddie Garcia (R) | $340,558 | $315,309 | $25,249 |
| Scott Parkinson (R) | $930,240 | $601,089 | $329,151 |
| Chuck Smith (R) | $556,762 | $536,262 | $20,499 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission ||||

### Results

Republican primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Republican | Hung Cao | 168,868 | 61.79% |
| | Republican | Scott Parkinson | 29,940 | 10.95% |
| | Republican | Eddie Garcia | 26,777 | 9.80% |
| | Republican | Chuck Smith | 24,108 | 8.82% |
| | Republican | Jonathan Emord | 23,614 | 8.64% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 273,307 | 100.00% |

## General election
### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| The Cook Political Report | Solid D | November 9, 2023 |
| Elections Daily | Solid D | August 9, 2024 |
| Inside Elections | Solid D | November 9, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe D | November 9, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill | Likely D | August 26, 2024 |
| CNalysis | Solid D | November 21, 2023 |
| RealClearPolitics | Likely D | August 5, 2024 |
| Split Ticket | Likely D | October 23, 2024 |
| 538 | Likely D | November 2, 2024 |

### Post-primary endorsements

U.S. representatives
* Denver Riggleman, former Republican U.S. representative from Virginia's 5th congressional district (2019–2021) (Independent)
Organizations
* CASA in Action
* People for the American Way
Newspapers
* The Washington Post
Statewide Officials
* Glenn Youngkin, Governor of Virginia (2022-present)
Organizations
* Log Cabin Republicans PAC
* National Federation of Independent Business

### Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024 :
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Tim Kaine (D) | $15,990,927 | $10,698,945 | $7,811,645 |
| Hung Cao (R) | $3,051,361 | $2,729,334 | $414,508 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission ||||

### Polling

Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Tim Kaine (D) | Hung Cao (R) | Undecided | Margin |
| FiveThirtyEight | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 51.9% | 41.2% | 6.9% | Kaine +10.7% |
| RealClearPolitics | October 19 – November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 52.0% | 41.2% | 6.8% | Kaine +10.8% |
| 270toWin | October 26 – November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 51.2% | 41.8% | 7.0% | Kaine +9.4% |
| TheHill/DDHQ | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 52.2% | 42.4% | 6.4% | Kaine +9.8% |
| Average | Average | Average | 51.8% | 41.6% | 6.6% | Kaine +10.2% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tim Kaine (D) | Hung Cao (R) | Other | Undecided |
| AtlasIntel | November 1–4, 2024 | 2,202 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 53% | 44% | 1% | 2% |
| Research Co. | November 2–3, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 53% | 41% | – | 6% |
| Chism Strategies | October 28–30, 2024 | 520 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 46% | 45% | – | 9% |
| Cygnal (R) | October 27–29, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 42% | – | 7% |
| Roanoke College | October 25–29, 2024 | 851 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 51% | 40% | 3% | 6% |
| ActiVote | October 2–28, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 55% | 45% | – | – |
| The Washington Post/ George Mason University | October 19–23, 2024 | 1,004 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 54% | 41% | 1% | 4% |
| The Washington Post/ George Mason University | October 19–23, 2024 | 1,004 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 54% | 40% | 1% | 5% |
| ActiVote | September 9 – October 14, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 56% | 44% | – | – |
| Christopher Newport University | September 28 – October 4, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 55% | 35% | 5% | 5% |
| Emerson College | September 22–24, 2024 | 860 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 51% | 41% | 2% | 6% |
| Research America | September 3–9, 2024 | 1,000 (A) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 38% | 8% | 9% |
| Research America | September 3–9, 2024 | 756 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 43% | 2% | 6% |
| The Washington Post/ George Mason University | September 4–8, 2024 | 1,005 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 53% | 41% | 1% | 5% |
| The Washington Post/ George Mason University | September 4–8, 2024 | 1,005 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 53% | 41% | – | 5% |
| ActiVote | July 24 – September 1, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 55% | 45% | – | – |
| Roanoke College | August 12–16, 2024 | 691 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 49% | 38% | 10% | 3% |
| Emerson College | July 14–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 39% | 4% | 8% |
| Mainstreet Research/FAU | July 14–15, 2024 | 301 (A) | ± 3.2% | 42% | 33% | 5% | 20% |
| Mainstreet Research/FAU | July 14–15, 2024 | 265 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 34% | 4% | 19% |
| Mainstreet Research/FAU | July 12–13, 2024 | 617 (A) | ± 3.2% | 45% | 32% | 7% | 15% |
| Mainstreet Research/FAU | July 12–13, 2024 | 544 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 34% | 6% | 13% |
| NYT/Siena College | July 9–12, 2024 | 661 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 52% | 34% | – | 14% |
| NYT/Siena College | July 9–12, 2024 | 661 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 52% | 36% | – | 12% |
| Virginia Commonwealth University | June 24 – July 3, 2024 | 809 (A) | ± 4.8% | 49% | 38% | 14% | – |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) | April 26–28, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 36% | 1% | 16% |
Tim Kaine vs. Glenn Youngkin
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tim Kaine (D) | Glenn Youngkin (R) | Other | Undecided |
| Virginia Commonwealth University | July 14–25, 2023 | 804 (A) | ± 5.46% | 47% | 42% | 3% | 7% |
| University of Mary Washington | September 6–12, 2022 | 1,000 (A) | ± 3.1% | 41% | 39% | 10% | 10% |

### Debates

2024 Virginia U.S. Senate election debate :
| No. | Date | Host | Moderators | Link | Democratic | Republican |
| Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W Withdrawn | Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W Withdrawn | Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W Withdrawn | Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W Withdrawn | Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W Withdrawn | | |
| Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W Withdrawn | Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W Withdrawn | Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W Withdrawn | Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W Withdrawn | Key: P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W Withdrawn | Kaine | Cao |
| 1 | Oct. 2, 2024 | NSU | Tom Schaad & Deanna Allbrittin | YouTube | P | P |

### Results

United States Senate election in Virginia, 2024 :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Democratic | Tim Kaine (incumbent) | 2,417,115 | 54.37% | −2.63% |
| | Republican | Hung Cao | 2,019,911 | 45.44% | +4.43% |
| | Write-in | Write-in | 8,509 | 0.19% | +0.04% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 4,445,535 | 100.00% | N/A |
| | Democratic hold | Democratic hold | Democratic hold | Democratic hold | Democratic hold |

#### Counties and independent cities that flipped from Democratic to Republican

* Fluvanna (largest city: Lake Monticello)
* Lynchburg (independent city)
* Waynesboro (independent city)
* Nelson (largest community: Nellysford)
* Essex (largest town: Tappahannock)
* Westmoreland (largest town: Colonial Beach)
* Caroline (largest town: Bowling Green)

### By congressional district

Kaine won 7 of 11 congressional districts, including one that elected a Republican.
| District | Kaine | Cao | Representative |
| 1st | 48.17% | 51.72% | Rob Wittman |
| 2nd | 51.24% | 48.65% | Jen Kiggans |
| 3rd | 68.86% | 31.01% | Bobby Scott |
| 4th | 67.77% | 32.07% | Jennifer McClellan |
| 5th | 45.04% | 54.82% | Bob Good (118th Congress |
| 5th | 45.04% | 54.82% | John McGuire (119th Congress |
| 6th | 40.96% | 59.49% | Ben Cline |
| 7th | 53.29% | 46.49% | Abigail Spanberger (118th Congress |
| 7th | 53.29% | 46.49% | Eugene Vindman (119th Congress |
| 8th | 74.61% | 25.09% | Don Beyer |
| 9th | 32.92% | 66.94% | Morgan Griffith |
| 10th | 54.77% | 44.93% | Jennifer Wexton (118th Congress |
| 10th | 54.77% | 44.93% | Suhas Subramanyam (119th Congress |
| 11th | 67.26% | 32.40% | Gerry Connolly |