# 2018 Arizona gubernatorial election

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The 2018 Arizona gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor of Arizona, concurrently with the election of Arizona's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
The primary was held on August 28. Despite considerably closer contests in other Arizona state elections, which included Democratic gains for U.S. Senate, Secretary of State, and Superintendent of Public Instruction, incumbent Governor Doug Ducey won a second term, with a slightly increased majority from his 2014 win and the largest margin of victory of any statewide candidate on the ballot. This was the first Arizona gubernatorial election since 1990 in which the winner was of the same party as the incumbent U.S. president. In addition, Ducey was the first person to receive 1 million votes in a gubernatorial election in the state.

## Republican primary
### Candidates
#### Nominee

* Doug Ducey, incumbent governor

#### Eliminated in primary

* Ken Bennett, former secretary of state of Arizona
* Robert Weber (write-in)

### Endorsements

Organizations
* Arizona Association of Realtors
* Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry
* Arizona Fraternal Order of Police
* Arizona Police Association
* Arizona State Troopers Association
* Chandler Chamber of Commerce
* Gilbert Chamber of Commerce
* Greater Phoenix Chamber of Commerce
* Flagstaff Chamber of Commerce
* Mesa Chamber of Commerce
* National Border Patrol Council
* National Federation of Independent Business
* Professional Fire Fighters of Arizona
* Tucson Metro Chamber
Newspapers
* Arizona Daily Star
* The Arizona Republic
* Casa Grande Dispatch
* The Daily Courier (Prescott, Arizona)
* Today's News-Herald (Lake Havasu City, Arizona)
Individuals
* John Doyle, Nogales mayor
* Mark Lamb, Pinal County Sheriff
* Scott Mascher, Yavapai County Sheriff
* Cindy McCain, philanthropist and businesswoman
* Mark Napier, Pima County Sheriff
* Mike Pence, 48th Vice President of the United States
* Gerardo Sanchez, San Luis mayor
* Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States
* Robert Uribe, Douglas mayor

### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Doug Ducey | Ken Bennett | Undecided |
| Emerson College | June 21–22, 2018 | 305 | ± 5.9% | 44% | 22% | 35% |

### Results

Republican primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Republican | Doug Ducey (incumbent) | 463,672 | 70.7 |
| | Republican | Ken Bennett | 191,775 | 29.3 |
| | Republican | Robert Weber (write-in) | 91 | 0.0 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 655,538 | 100.0 |

## Democratic primary
### Candidates
#### Nominee

* David Garcia, Arizona State University professor and nominee for Superintendent of Public Instruction in 2014

#### Eliminated in primary

* Mirza Fareed "Fareed" Baig (write-in)
* Steve Farley, state senator
* Kelly Fryer, nonprofit executive and activist

#### Declined

* Terry Goddard, former Arizona Attorney General and nominee for governor in 2010 and 1990
* Kyrsten Sinema, U.S. Representative (running for U.S. Senate)
* Greg Stanton, Mayor of Phoenix (running for AZ-09)

### Endorsements

Labor unions
* American Federation of Government Employees
* Arizona Building and Construction Trades Council
* Arizona Education Association
* Communications Workers of America
Organizations
* Democracy for America
* Latino Victory Fund
* People for the American Way
* Planned Parenthood Advocates of Arizona
* Progressive Change Campaign Committee
* Sierra Club
* VoteVets.org
* Working Families Party

### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Steve Farley | Kelly Fryer | David Garcia | Undecided |
| OH Predictive Insights | August 14–15, 2018 | 589 | ± 4.0% | 25% | 7% | 40% | 28% |
| Data Orbital | June 25–27, 2018 | 550 | ± 4.2% | 11% | 6% | 33% | 49% |
| Emerson College | June 21–22, 2018 | 260 | ± 6.2% | 13% | 8% | 30% | 48% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Garcia) | May 21–23, 2018 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 11% | 11% | 32% | 46% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) | January 5–7, 2018 | 446 | – | 22% | – | 43% | 36% |

### Results

Democratic primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Democratic | David Garcia | 255,555 | 50.6 |
| | Democratic | Steve Farley | 163,072 | 32.3 |
| | Democratic | Kelly Fryer | 86,810 | 17.2 |
| | Democratic | Mirza Fareed Baig (write-in) | 44 | 0.0 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 505,481 | 100.0 |

## Libertarian primary
### Candidates
#### Disqualified

* Jeff Funicello, activist
* Barry Hess (write-in)
* Kevin McCormick, candidate for president in 2016

### Endorsements

Individuals
* William Weld, former governor of Massachusetts

## Green primary
### Candidates
#### Nominee

* Angel Torres (write-in)

#### Eliminated in primary

* Noah Dyer (write-in)

### Results

Green primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Green | Angel Torres (write-in) | 357 | 76.3 |
| | Green | Noah Dyer (write-in) | 111 | 23.7 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 468 | 100.0 |

## Independents
### Candidates
#### Disqualified

* Noah Dyer, author, businessman and educator
* Christian R. Komor, author, psychologist, climate scientist

#### Declined

* Tim Jeffries, former director of the Arizona Department of Economic Security

## General election
### Debates

| Dates | Location | Ducey | Garcia | Link |
| September 24, 2018 | Tempe, Arizona | Participant | Participant | Full debate – YouTube |
| September 25, 2018 | Tucson, Arizona | Participant | Participant | Full debate – C-SPAN |

### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| The Cook Political Report | Likely R | October 26, 2018 |
| The Washington Post | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
| FiveThirtyEight | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| Rothenberg Political Report | Likely R | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics | Likely R | November 4, 2018 |
| Daily Kos | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
| Politico | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
| Governing | Lean R | November 5, 2018 |

#### Notes

* ↑ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Doug Ducey (R) | David Garcia (D) | Angel Torres (G) | Other | Undecided |
| HarrisX | November 3–5, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 53% | 39% | – | – | – |
| HarrisX | November 2–4, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 55% | 37% | – | – | – |
| Emerson College | November 1–3, 2018 | 758 | ± 3.7% | 55% | 40% | – | – | 5% |
| HarrisX | November 1–3, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 57% | 36% | – | – | – |
| Research Co. | November 1–3, 2018 | 450 | ± 4.6% | 54% | 39% | – | 2% | 5% |
| HarrisX | October 31 – November 2, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 56% | 37% | – | – | – |
| Gravis Marketing | October 24 – November 2, 2018 | 1,165 | ± 2.9% | 53% | 40% | – | – | 7% |
| HarrisX | October 30 – November 1, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 57% | 36% | – | – | – |
| HarrisX | October 29–31, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 54% | 37% | – | – | – |
| Vox Populi Polling | October 27–30, 2018 | 677 | ± 3.7% | 54% | 46% | – | – | – |
| HarrisX | October 24–30, 2018 | 1,400 | ± 2.6% | 57% | 35% | – | – | – |
| Fox News | October 27–29, 2018 | 643 LV | ± 3.5% | 55% | 37% | – | 2% | 5% |
| Fox News | October 27–29, 2018 | 710 RV | ± 3.5% | 54% | 35% | – | 3% | 7% |
| CNN/SSRS | October 24–29, 2018 | 702 LV | ± 4.4% | 52% | 45% | – | 0% | 1% |
| CNN/SSRS | October 24–29, 2018 | 867 RV | ± 4.0% | 52% | 43% | – | 0% | 3% |
| HighGround Public Affairs | October 26–28, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 55% | 35% | 4% | – | 7% |
| Marist College | October 23–27, 2018 | 506 LV | ± 5.4% | 54% | 40% | 5% | <1% | 2% |
| Marist College | October 23–27, 2018 | 506 LV | ± 5.4% | 55% | 42% | – | 1% | 1% |
| Marist College | October 23–27, 2018 | 793 RV | ± 4.4% | 54% | 38% | 5% | <1% | 3% |
| Marist College | October 23–27, 2018 | 793 RV | ± 4.4% | 55% | 41% | – | 1% | 3% |
| YouGov | October 23–26, 2018 | 972 | ± 4.1% | 52% | 41% | – | 1% | 5% |
| Ipsos | October 17–26, 2018 | 799 | ± 4.0% | 57% | 37% | – | 2% | 3% |
| OH Predictive Insights | October 22–23, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 57% | 39% | 1% | – | 3% |
| Change Research (D-Garcia) | October 9–10, 2018 | 783 | – | 47% | 40% | – | – | 11% |
| OH Predictive Insights | October 3, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 54% | 37% | 2% | – | 7% |
| Data Orbital | October 1–3, 2018 | 550 | ± 4.2% | 52% | 34% | 2% | 2% | 9% |
| Fox News | September 29 – October 2, 2018 | 716 LV | ± 3.5% | 55% | 37% | – | 1% | 7% |
| Fox News | September 29 – October 2, 2018 | 806 RV | ± 3.5% | 54% | 35% | – | 2% | 9% |
| Vox Populi Polling | September 29 – October 1, 2018 | 702 | ± 3.5% | 57% | 43% | – | – | – |
| Suffolk University | September 27–30, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 50% | 38% | 2% | 0% | 10% |
| Latino Decisions | September 10–25, 2018 | 463 LV | – | 45% | 40% | – | – | 15% |
| Latino Decisions | September 10–25, 2018 | 610 RV | – | 41% | 37% | – | – | 19% |
| Emerson College | September 19–21, 2018 | 650 | ± 4.4% | 42% | 38% | – | 6% | 14% |
| Marist College | September 16–20, 2018 | 564 LV | ± 4.7% | 49% | 39% | 6% | <1% | 6% |
| Marist College | September 16–20, 2018 | 564 LV | ± 4.7% | 51% | 43% | – | <1% | 5% |
| Marist College | September 16–20, 2018 | 763 RV | ± 4.2% | 48% | 37% | 7% | <1% | 7% |
| Marist College | September 16–20, 2018 | 763 RV | ± 4.2% | 51% | 42% | – | 1% | 6% |
| CNN/SSRS | September 11–15, 2018 | 761 LV | ± 4.3% | 49% | 46% | – | 0% | 2% |
| CNN/SSRS | September 11–15, 2018 | 854 RV | ± 4.1% | 48% | 45% | – | 1% | 4% |
| Ipsos | September 5–14, 2018 | 1,016 | ± 4.0% | 51% | 39% | – | 4% | 7% |
| TargetSmart (D-ProgressNow AZ) | September 8–13, 2018 | 800 | ± 4.0% | 49% | 48% | – | 0% | 3% |
| Fox News | September 8–11, 2018 | 710 LV | ± 3.5% | 51% | 40% | – | 1% | 8% |
| Fox News | September 8–11, 2018 | 801 RV | ± 3.5% | 49% | 39% | – | 1% | 10% |
| Gravis Marketing | September 5–7, 2018 | 882 | ± 3.3% | 48% | 44% | – | – | 9% |
| Data Orbital | September 4–6, 2018 | 550 | ± 4.2% | 49% | 41% | – | 2% | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) | August 30–31, 2018 | 554 | ± 4.2% | 44% | 43% | – | – | 13% |
| Gravis Marketing | June 27 – July 2, 2018 | 925 | ± 3.2% | 41% | 42% | – | – | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) | January 5–7, 2018 | 735 | ± 4.0% | 42% | 43% | – | – | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) | June 7–8, 2017 | 1,020 | ± 3.1% | 42% | 44% | – | – | 14% |
with Steve Farley
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Doug Ducey (R) | Steve Farley (D) | Undecided |
| Gravis Marketing | June 27 – July 2, 2018 | 925 | ± 3.2% | 42% | 39% | 19% |
| GQR Research (D-Farley) | February 23 – March 5, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 49% | 44% | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) | January 5–7, 2018 | 735 | ± 4.0% | 42% | 39% | 19% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) | June 7–8, 2017 | 1,020 | ± 3.1% | 42% | 40% | 18% |
with generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Doug Ducey (R) | Generic Democrat | Undecided |
| Morning Consult | June 29 – July 9, 2018 | 1,641 | ± 2.0% | 34% | 41% | 25% |
with Kyrsten Sinema
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Doug Ducey (R) | Kyrsten Sinema (D) | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | May 13–15, 2016 | 896 | ± 3.3% | 43% | 36% | 21% |

### Results

Arizona gubernatorial election, 2018 :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Republican | Doug Ducey (incumbent) | 1,330,863 | 56.00% | +2.56% |
| | Democratic | David Garcia | 994,341 | 41.84% | +0.22% |
| | Green | Angel Torres | 50,962 | 2.14% | N/A |
| | Write-in | Write-in | 275 | 0.01% | -0.10% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 2,376,441 | 100.0% | N/A |
| | Republican hold | Republican hold | Republican hold | Republican hold | Republican hold |

#### By county

| County | David Garcia Democratic | David Garcia Democratic | Doug Ducey Republican | Doug Ducey Republican | Angel Torres Green | Angel Torres Green | Margin | Margin | Total votes |
| County | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | Total votes |
| Apache | 14,955 | 59.72% | 9,175 | 36.64% | 912 | 3.64% | 5,780 | 23.08% | 25,042 |
| Cochise | 14,576 | 32.10% | 29,638 | 65.26% | 1,201 | 2.64% | -15,062 | -33.17% | 45,415 |
| Coconino | 30,712 | 55.91% | 22,778 | 41.47% | 1,440 | 2.62% | 7,934 | 14.44% | 54,930 |
| Gila | 5,623 | 27.38% | 14,444 | 70.34% | 468 | 2.28% | -8,821 | -42.96% | 20,535 |
| Graham | 2,569 | 24.19% | 7,776 | 73.21% | 276 | 2.60% | -5,207 | -49.03% | 10,621 |
| Greenlee | 832 | 32.64% | 1,637 | 64.22% | 80 | 3.14% | -805 | -31.58% | 2,549 |
| La Paz | 1,122 | 21.99% | 3,852 | 75.49% | 129 | 2.53% | -2,730 | -53.50% | 5,103 |
| Maricopa | 603,055 | 42.09% | 800,210 | 55.85% | 29,495 | 2.06% | -197,155 | -13.76% | 1,432,760 |
| Mohave | 13,580 | 18.97% | 56,682 | 79.18% | 1,325 | 1.85% | -43,102 | -60.21% | 71,587 |
| Navajo | 13,646 | 37.30% | 21,880 | 59.81% | 1,055 | 2.88% | -8,234 | -22.51% | 36,581 |
| Pima | 195,227 | 50.25% | 184,621 | 47.52% | 8,678 | 2.23% | 10,606 | 2.73% | 388,526 |
| Pinal | 38,801 | 33.21% | 75,272 | 64.42% | 2,767 | 2.37% | -36,471 | -31.21% | 116,840 |
| Santa Cruz | 8,407 | 62.46% | 4,792 | 35.60% | 261 | 1.94% | 3,615 | 26.86% | 13,460 |
| Yavapai | 32,159 | 29.68% | 74,148 | 68.44% | 2,029 | 1.87% | -41,989 | -38.76% | 108,336 |
| Yuma | 19,077 | 43.47% | 23,958 | 54.60% | 846 | 1.93% | -4,881 | -11.12%% | 43,881 |
| Total | 994,341 | 41.8% | 1,330,863 | 56.0% | 50,962 | 2.1% | 336,522 | 14.2% | 2,376,166 |

#### By congressional district

Ducey won six of nine congressional districts, including two that elected Democrats.
| District | David Garcia Democratic | Doug Ducey Republican | Representative |
| 1st | 43.1% | 54.3% | Tom O'Halleran |
| 2nd | 46.1% | 51.6% | Ann Kirkpatrick |
| 3rd | 57.7% | 35.7% | Raúl Grijalva |
| 4th | 25.1% | 72.9% | Paul Gosar |
| 5th | 34.0% | 64.0% | Andy Biggs |
| 6th | 38.2% | 60.1% | David Schweikert |
| 7th | 67.3% | 29.6% | Ruben Gallego |
| 8th | 33.2% | 64.6% | Debbie Lesko |
| 9th | 52.2% | 45.5% | Greg Stanton |

#### Voter demographics

Edison Research exit poll :
| Demographic subgroup | Garcia | Ducey | No answer | % of voters |
| Gender |||||
| Men | 40 | 58 | 2 | 47 |
| Women | 43 | 55 | 2 | 53 |
| Age |||||
| 18–24 years old | N/A | N/A | N/A | 5 |
| 25–29 years old | N/A | N/A | N/A | 4 |
| 30–39 years old | 45 | 52 | 3 | 17 |
| 40–49 years old | 43 | 55 | 2 | 16 |
| 50–64 years old | 37 | 61 | 2 | 29 |
| 65 and older | 40 | 59 | 1 | 29 |
| Race |||||
| White | 37 | 62 | 1 | 75 |
| Black | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2 |
| Latino | 56 | 44 | N/A | 19 |
| Asian | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 |
| Other | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 |
| Race and gender |||||
| White men | 34 | 64 | 2 | 34 |
| White women | 39 | 60 | 1 | 41 |
| Black men | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 |
| Black women | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 |
| Latino men | 53 | 46 | 1 | 9 |
| Latina women | 58 | 42 | N/A | 10 |
| Others | N/A | N/A | N/A | 4 |
| Education |||||
| High school or less | 32 | 67 | 1 | 25 |
| Some college education | 40 | 58 | 2 | 28 |
| Associate degree | 38 | 59 | 3 | 10 |
| Bachelor's degree | 46 | 51 | 3 | 23 |
| Advanced degree | 59 | 40 | 1 | 14 |
| Education and race |||||
| White college graduates | 48 | 49 | 3 | 27 |
| White no college degree | 30 | 69 | 1 | 38 |
| Non-white college graduates | 51 | 47 | 2 | 9 |
| Non-white no college degree | 61 | 38 | 1 | 16 |
| Whites by education and gender |||||
| White women with college degrees | 50 | 49 | 1 | 15 |
| White women without college degrees | 33 | 66 | 1 | 26 |
| White men with college degrees | 46 | 49 | 5 | 12 |
| White men without college degrees | 28 | 72 | N/A | 21 |
| Non-whites | 58 | 40 | 2 | 25 |
| Military service |||||
| Veteran | 33 | 65 | 2 | 14 |
| Non-veteran | 45 | 54 | 1 | 86 |
| Income |||||
| Under $30,000 | 36 | 62 | 2 | 15 |
| $30,000-$49,999 | 54 | 45 | 1 | 19 |
| $50,000-$99,999 | 46 | 52 | 2 | 33 |
| $100,000-$199,999 | 31 | 67 | 2 | 24 |
| Over $200,000 | 28 | 72 | N/A | 9 |
| Party ID |||||
| Democrats | 85 | 14 | 1 | 31 |
| Republicans | 5 | 95 | N/A | 38 |
| Independents | 45 | 52 | 3 | 31 |
| Party by gender |||||
| Democratic men | 77 | 20 | 3 | 14 |
| Democratic women | 91 | 9 | N/A | 17 |
| Republican men | 5 | 95 | N/A | 15 |
| Republican women | 4 | 96 | N/A | 23 |
| Independent men | 42 | 56 | 2 | 18 |
| Independent women | 48 | 47 | 5 | 13 |
| Ideology |||||
| Liberals | 83 | 16 | 1 | 22 |
| Moderates | 57 | 41 | 2 | 38 |
| Conservatives | 4 | 95 | 1 | 40 |
| First-time midterm election voter |||||
| Yes | 51 | 45 | 4 | 15 |
| No | 41 | 58 | 1 | 85 |
| Most important issue facing the country |||||
| Health care | 64 | 33 | 3 | 42 |
| Immigration | 8 | 91 | 1 | 31 |
| Economy | 38 | 60 | 2 | 18 |
| Gun policy | N/A | N/A | N/A | 7 |
| Area type |||||
| Urban | 52 | 46 | 2 | 43 |
| Suburban | 34 | 64 | 2 | 51 |
| Rural | N/A | N/A | N/A | 5 |
| Source: CNN |||||