# Polymarket

Polymarket is an American cryptocurrency-based prediction market, headquartered in Manhattan, New York City. Launched in 2020, it offers a platform where investors can place bets on various future events, including economic indicators, weather patterns, awards, as well as political and legislative outcomes. Participants can deposit USDC cryptocurrency through the Polygon blockchain network and trade shares that represent the likelihood of specific outcomes occurring in the future.
Polymarket has blocked access to US customers since 2022, following a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which accused the company of running an unregistered derivatives-trading platform.

## History

Founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, Polymarket is a prediction market that allows users to gain/lose on the outcome of world events. In January 2022, Polymarket was fined US$1.4 million by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and received a cease and desist order for regulatory violations, including failure to register as a Swap Execution Facility. According to the CFTC, Polymarket offered "substantial cooperation" throughout the investigation, which resulted in the company receiving a lower fine.
The market comments section was modified to filter comments to Holders Only due to increased abusive content within the comments.
In May 2022, Polymarket appointed J. Christopher Giancarlo, a former Commissioner of the CFTC, as chairman of its advisory board. In May 2024, the company announced that it had raised US$70 million across two funding rounds. These rounds included investments from Vitalik Buterin, the co-founder of Ethereum, and Founders Fund, a venture capital firm founded by Peter Thiel.
In June 2023, Mother Jones reported that interest around the company had increased after a tweet about the outcome of the Titan submersible went viral; the premise of the bet was whether the submersible would be found by a certain date, rather than a wager on the fate of the passengers. Polymarket had over 60 markets available at the time of the submersible wager, including the outcome of the Guatemalan presidential election, the likelihood of Twitter suing Meta, and the likelihood that Russia would use nuclear force.

### 2024 United States elections

In 2024, the outcome of U.S. elections became the most active market on the platform, with over $3.3 billion (as of November 5, 2024) wagered on the presidential race between the Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. Nate Silver, founder of polling analysis firm FiveThirtyEight, became an advisor to Polymarket in 2024. As of September 2024, Polymarket operates its election prediction operations offshore, as domestic operations would be regulated by the CFTC.
A few days after the 2024 U.S. presidential debate held on June 27, 2024, Polymarket predicted a 70% chance that Democratic candidate Joe Biden would withdraw from the 2024 U.S. presidential election (an increase from 20%), weeks before he officially announced his withdrawal. By contrast, on August 5 Polymarket showed 68% odds Kamala Harris would pick Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro as her running mate, with Minnesota governor Tim Walz at 23% odds. Harris selected Walz the next day.
On October 7, 2024, Polymarket showed a spike in the odds Donald Trump would win the 2024 election, to 53.3%, with a corresponding decline in Kamala Harris's odds, to 46.1%. Two Polymarket competitors continued to show Harris with better odds of winning, at about 51%; Polymarket also showed a slight edge for Harris throughout September. That day, the FiveThirtyEight simulation model found Harris had a 55% chance to win the election, while elections statistician Nate Silver said his model gave Harris 54.7% odds. Forbes reported on theories for the Polymarket divergence, including that one or more major wagers had been placed on Trump, possibly because Elon Musk had spoken at a Trump rally two days earlier, and had previously promoted Polymarket. On the day of the Trump spike, Musk reposted an X post that asserted "Kamala is collapsing before our eyes." However, due to Polymarket lacking a cap on individual investor amounts, large wagers by one or a few bettors may not reflect a material change in the election landscape. Silver, a Polymarket advisor, said the shift in Trump's favor was a "larger swing than is justified." Polymarket competitor Predictit had since shown Trump with better odds of winning after previously favoring Kamala Harris.
The divergence continued into mid October 2024, showing Trump with 60% odds on October 18. The Wall Street Journal reported the market moves might be a mirage created by four bettors with about $30 million in Trump wagers, though the bets were not necessarily nefarious. The four bettors behaved in similar fashion, leading at least one blockchain analyst to conclude there was "strong reason to believe they are the same entity." Polymarket initiated an investigation of potential market manipulation for an influence campaign in favor of the Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign. The company confirmed on October 24 that the four accounts were controlled by one French trader with "extensive trading experience and a financial services background," finding no evidence of efforts at market manipulation. The trader ultimately won $85 million upon Trump's victory.

## Legal issues

On November 13, 2024, the FBI raided Coplan's home and seized his phone. According to Bloomberg News, the Department of Justice is investigating Polymarket for allegedly allowing U.S.-based gamblers to make bets on the website.
On November 26, 2024, the Swiss Gambling Supervisory Authority blocklisted Polymarket.com due to the controversial aspects of prediction markets in violation of the regulation on gambling and sports betting.
On December 2, 2024, the French National Gaming Authority geo-blocked Polymarket.com, saying that the website's gaming offerings were likely in violation of French laws. Singapore’s Gambling Regulatory Authority also blocked access to the website in the same month as it was deemed to be providing unlawful gambling.
On February 3, 2025, the Belgian gambling commission, Commission des Jeux de Hasard, banned the platform from the country, warning every user trying to connect to it that the use of this platform in Belgium is now illegal.