# List of important publications in statistics

This is a list of important publications in statistics, organized by field.
Some reasons why a particular publication might be regarded as important:
* Topic creator – A publication that created a new topic
* Breakthrough – A publication that changed scientific knowledge significantly
* Influence – A publication which has significantly influenced the world or has had a massive impact on the teaching of statistics.

## Probability
### Théorie analytique des probabilités

    Author: Pierre-Simon Laplace
    Publication data: 1820 (3rd ed.)
    Online version: Internet Archive; CNRS, with more accurate character recognition; Gallica-Math, complete PDF and PDFs by section
    Description: Introduced the Laplace transform, exponential families, and conjugate priors in Bayesian statistics. Pioneering asymptotic statistics, proved an early version of the Bernstein–von Mises theorem on the irrelevance of the (regular) prior distribution on the limiting posterior distribution, highlighting the asymptotic role of the Fisher information. Studies the influence of median and skewness in regression analysis. Inspired the field of robust regression, proposed the Laplace distribution and was the first to provide alternatives to Carl Friedrich Gauss's work on statistics.
    Importance: Topic creator, Breakthrough, Influence

## Mathematical statistics

Mathematical Methods of Statistics
    Author: Harald Cramér
    Publication data: Princeton Mathematical Series, vol. 9. Princeton University Press, Princeton, N. J., 1946. xvi+575 pp. (A first version was published by Almqvist & Wiksell in Uppsala, Sweden, but had little circulation because of World War II.)
    Description: Carefully written and extensive account of measure-theoretic probability for statisticians, along with careful mathematical treatment of classical statistics.
    Importance: Made measure-theoretic probability the standard language for advanced statistics in the English-speaking world, following its earlier adoption in France and the USSR.
Statistical Decision Functions
    Author: Abraham Wald
    Publication data: 1950. John Wiley & Sons.
    Description: Exposition of statistical decision theory as a foundations of statistics. Included earlier results of Wald on sequential analysis and the sequential probability ratio test and on Wald's complete class theorem characterizing admissible decision rules as limits of Bayesian procedures.
    Importance: Raised the mathematical status of statistical theory and attracted mathematical statisticians like John von Neumann, Aryeh Dvoretzky, Jacob Wolfowitz, Jack C. Kiefer, and David Blackwell, providing greater ties with economic theory and operations research. Spurred further work on decision theory.
Testing Statistical Hypotheses
    Author: Erich Leo Lehmann
    Publication data: 1959. John Wiley & Sons.
    Description: Exposition of statistical hypothesis testing using the statistical decision theory of Abraham Wald, with some use of measure-theoretic probability.
    Importance: Made Wald's ideas accessible. Collected and organized many results of statistical theory that were scattered throughout journal articles, civilizing statistics.

## Bayesian statistics

An Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances
    Author: Thomas Bayes
    Publication data: 1763-12-23
    Online version: "An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances. By the late Rev. Mr. Bayes, F.R.S. communicated by Mr. Price, in a Letter to John Canton, A.M. F.R.S." (PDF). Department of Mathematics, University of York.
    Description: In this paper Bayes addresses the problem of using a sequence of identical "trials" to determine the per-trial probability of "success" – the so-called inverse probability problem. It later inspired the theorem that bears his name (Bayes' theorem). See also Pierre Simon de Laplace.
    Importance: Topic creator, Breakthrough, Influence
On Small Differences in Sensation
    Author: Charles Sanders Peirce and Joseph Jastrow
    Publication data: Peirce, Charles Sanders; Jastrow, Joseph (1885). "On Small Differences in Sensation". Memoirs of the National Academy of Sciences. 3: 73–83.
    Online version: http://psychclassics.yorku.ca/Peirce/small-diffs.htm
    Description: Peirce and Jastrow use logistic regression to estimate subjective probabilities of subjects's judgments of the heavier of two measurements, following a randomized controlled repeated measures design.
    Importance: Pioneered elicitation of subjective probabilities.
Truth and Probability
    Author: Frank P. Ramsey
    Publication data: * Ramsey, Frank Plumpton; "Truth and Probability" (PDF), Chapter VII in The Foundations of Mathematics and other Logical Essays (1931).
    Online version: https://web.archive.org/web/20080227205205/http://cepa.newschool.edu/het//texts/ramsey/ramsess.pdf
    Description: Ramsey proposes elucidating a person's subjective probability for a proposition using a sequence of bets. Ramsey described his work as an elaboration of some pragmatic ideas of C. S. Peirce, which were expressed in "How to Make Our Ideas Clear".
    Importance: Popularized the "Ramsey test" for eliciting subjective probabilities.
Bayesian Inference in Statistical Analysis
    Author: George E. P. Box and George C. Tiao
    Publication data: Addison Wesley Publishing Co., 1973. Reprinted 1992: Wiley ISBN 0471574287
    Description: The first complete analysis of Bayesian Inference for many statistical problems.
    Importance: Includes a large body of research on Bayesian analysis for outlier problems, variance components, linear models and multivariate statistics.
Theory of Probability
    Author: Bruno de Finetti
    Publication data: Two volumes, A.F.M. Smith and A. Machi (trs.), New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1974, 1975.
    Description: The first detailed statement of the operational subjective position, dating from the author's research in the 1920s and 30s.
    Importance: Emphasizes exchangeable random variables which are often mixtures of independent random variables. Argues for finitely additive probability measures that need not be countably additive. Emphasizes expectations rather than probability measures.
Introduction to statistical decision theory
    Author: John W. Pratt, Howard Raiffa, and Robert Schlaifer
    Publication data: preliminary edition, 1965. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1995.
    Description: Extensive exposition of statistical decision theory, statistics, and decision analysis from a Bayesian standpoint. Many examples and problems come from business and economics.
    Importance: Greatly extended the scope of applied Bayesian statistics by using conjugate priors for exponential families. Extensive treatment of sequential decision making, for example mining decisions. For many years, it was required for all doctoral students at Harvard Business School.

## Multivariate analysis

An Introduction to Multivariate Analysis
    Authors: Theodore W. Anderson
    Publication data: 1958, John Wiley
    Description:
    Importance: This textbook educated a generation of theorists and applied statisticians, emphasizing hypothesis testing via likelihood ratio tests and the properties of power functions: Admissibility, unbiasedness and monotonicity.

## Time series

Time Series Analysis Forecasting and Control
    Authors: George E.P. Box and Gwilym M. Jenkins
    Publication data: Holden-Day, 1970
    Description: Systematic approach to ARIMA and ARMAX modelling
    Importance: This book introduces ARIMA and associated input-output models, studies how to fit them and develops a methodology for time series forecasting and control. It has changed econometrics, process control and forecasting.

## Applied statistics

Statistical Methods for Research Workers
    Author: R.A. Fisher
    Publication data: Edinburgh: Oliver & Boyd, 1925 (1st edition); London: Macmillan, 1970 (15th edition)
    Online version: http://psychclassics.yorku.ca/Fisher/Methods/
    Description: The original manual for researchers, especially biologists, on how to statistically evaluate numerical data.
    Importance: Hugely influential text by the father of modern statistics that remained in print for more than 50 years. Responsible for the widespread use of tests of statistical significance.
Statistical Methods
    Author: George W. Snedecor
    Publication data: 1937, Collegiate Press
    Description: One of the first comprehensive texts on statistical methods. Reissued as Statistical Methods Applied to Experiments in Agriculture and Biology in 1940 and then again as Statistical Methods with Cochran, WG in 1967. A classic text.
    Importance: Influence
Principles and Procedures of Statistics with Special Reference to the Biological Sciences.
    Authors: Steel, R.G.D, and Torrie, J. H.
    Publication data: McGraw Hill (1960) 481 pages
    Description: Excellent introductory text for analysis of variance (one-way, multi-way, factorial, split-plot, and unbalanced designs). Also analysis of co-variance, multiple and partial regression and correlation, non-linear regression, and non-parametric analyses. This book was written before computer programmes were available, so it gives the detail needed to make the calculations manually.Cited in more than 1,381 publications between 1961 and 1975.
    Importance: Influence
Biometry: The Principles and Practices of Statistics in Biological Research
    Authors: Robert R. Sokal; F. J. Rohlf
    Publication data: 1st ed. W. H. Freemann (1969); 2nd ed. W. H. Freemann (1981); 3rd ed. Freeman & Co. (1994)
    Description:: Key textbook on Biometry: the application of statistical methods for descriptive, experimental, and analytical study of biological phenomena.
    Importance Cited in more than 7,000 publications.

## Statistical learning theory

On the uniform convergence of relative frequencies of events to their probabilities
    Authors: V. Vapnik, A. Chervonenkis
    Publication data: Theory of Probability and Its Applications, 16(2):264–280, 1971 doi:10.1137/1116025
    Description: Computational learning theory, VC theory, statistical uniform convergence and the VC dimension.
    Importance: Breakthrough, Influence

## Variance component estimation

On the mathematical foundations of theoretical statistics
    Author: Fisher, RA
    Publication data: 1922, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Series A, volume 222, pages 309–368
    Description: First comprehensive treatise of estimation by maximum likelihood.
    Importance: Topic creator, Breakthrough, Influence
Estimation of variance and covariance components
    Author: Henderson, CR
    Publication data: 1953, Biometrics, volume 9, pages 226–252
    Description: First description of three methods of estimation of variance components in mixed linear models for unbalanced data. "One of the most frequently cited papers in the scientific literature."
    Importance: Topic creator, Breakthrough, Influence
Maximum-likelihood estimation for the mixed analysis of variance model
    Author: H. O. Hartley and J. N. K. Rao
    Publication data: 1967, Biometrika, volume 54, pages 93-108 doi:10.1093/biomet/54.1-2.93
    Description: First description of maximum likelihood methods for variance component estimation in mixed models
    Importance: Topic creator, Breakthrough, Influence
Recovery of inter-block information when block sizes are unequal
    Author: Patterson, HD; Thompson, R
    Publication data: 1971, Biometrika, volume 58, pages 545-554 doi:10.1093/biomet/58.3.545
    Description: First description of restricted maximum likelihood (REML)
    Importance: Topic creator, Breakthrough, Influence
Estimation of Variance and Covariance Components in Linear Models
    Author: Rao, CR
    Publication data: 1972, Journal of the American Statistical Association, volume 67, pages. 112–115
    Description: First description of Minimum Variance Quadratic Unbiased Estimation (MIVQUE) and Minimum Norm Quadratic Unbiased Estimation (MINQUE) for unbalanced data
    Importance: Topic creator, Breakthrough, Influence

## Survival analysis

Nonparametric estimation from incomplete observations
    Author: Kaplan, EL and Meier, P
    Publication data: 1958, Journal of the American Statistical Association, volume 53, pages 457–481. JSTOR 2281868
    Description: First description of the now ubiquitous Kaplan-Meier estimator of survival functions from data with censored observations
    Importance: Breakthrough, Influence
A generalized Wilcoxon test for comparing arbitrarily singly-censored samples
    Author: Gehan, EA
    Publication data: 1965, Biometrika, volume 52, pages 203–223. doi:10.1093/biomet/52.1-2.203
    Description: First presentation of the extension of the Wilcoxon rank-sum test to censored data
    Importance: Influence
Evaluation of survival data and two new rank order statistics arising in its consideration
    Author: Mantel, N
    Publication data: 1966, Cancer Chemotherapy Reports, volume 50, pages 163–170. PMID 5910392
    Description: Development of the logrank test for censored survival data.
    Importance: Topic creator, Breakthrough, Influence
Regression Models and Life Tables
    Author: Cox, DR
    Publication data: 1972, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, volume 34, pages 187–220. JSTOR 2985181
    Description: Seminal paper introducing semi-parametric proportional hazards models (Cox models) for survival data
    Importance: Topic creator, Breakthrough, Influence
The Statistical Analysis of Failure Time Data
    Author: Kalbfleisch, JD and Prentice, RL
    Publication data: 1980, John Wiley & Sons, New York
    Description: First comprehensive text covering the methods of estimation and inference for time to event analyses
    Importance: Influence

## Meta analysis

Report on Certain Enteric Fever Inoculation Statistics
    Author: Pearson, K
    Publication data: 1904, British Medical Journal, volume 2, pages 1243-1246 PMID 20761760
    Description: Generally considered to be the first synthesis of results from separate studies, although no formal statistical methods for combining results are presented.
    Importance: Breakthrough, Influence
The Probability Integral Transformation for Testing Goodness of Fit and Combining Independent Tests of Significance
    Author: Pearson, ES
    Publication data: 1938 Biometrika, volume 30, pages 134-148 doi:10.1093/biomet/30.1-2.134
    Description: One of the first published methods for formally combining results from different experiments
    Importance: Breakthrough, Influence
Combining Independent Tests of Significance
    Author: Fisher, RA
    Publication data: 1948, The American Statistician, volume 2, page 30
    Description: One of the first published methods for formally combining results from different experiments
    Importance: Breakthrough, Influence
The combination of estimates from different experiments
    Author: Cochran, WG
    Publication data: 1954, Biometrics, volume 10, page 101–129
    Description: A comprehensive treatment of the various methods for formally combining results from different experiments
    Importance: Breakthrough, Influence

## Experimental design

On Small Differences in Sensation
    Author: Charles Sanders Peirce and Joseph Jastrow
    Publication data: Peirce, Charles Sanders; Jastrow, Joseph (1885). "On Small Differences in Sensation". Memoirs of the National Academy of Sciences. 3: 73–83.
    Online version: http://psychclassics.yorku.ca/Peirce/small-diffs.htm
    Description: Peirce and Jastrow use logistic regression to estimate subjective probabilities of subjects's judgments of the heavier of two measurements, following a randomized controlled repeated measures design.
    Importance: The first randomized experiment, which also used blinding; it seems also to have been the first experiment for estimating subjective probabilities.
The Design of Experiments
    Author: Fisher, RA
    Publication data: 1935, Oliver and Boyd, Edinburgh
    Description: The first textbook on experimental design
    Importance: Influence
The Design and Analysis of Experiments
    Author: Oscar Kempthorne
    Publication data: 1950, John Wiley & Sons, New York (Reprinted with corrections in 1979 by Robert E. Krieger)
    Description: Early exposition of the general linear model using matrix algebra (following lecture notes of George W. Brown). Bases inference on the randomization distribution objectively defined by the experimental protocol, rather than a so-called "statistical model" expressing the subjective beliefs of a statistician: The normal model is regarded as a convenient approximation to the randomization-distribution, whose quality is assessed by theorems about moments and simulation experiments.
    Importance: The first and most extensive discussion of randomation-based inference in the field of design of experiments until the recent 2-volume work by Hinkelmann and Kempthorne; randomization-based inference is called "design-based" inference in survey sampling of finite populations. Introduced the treatment-unit additivity hypothesis, which was discussed in chapter 2 of David R. Cox's book on experiments (1958) and which has influenced Donald Rubin and Paul Rosenbaum's analysis of observational data.
On the Experimental Attainment of Optimum Conditions (with discussion)
    Author: George E. P. Box and K. B. Wilson.
    Publication data: (1951) Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B 13(1):1–45.
    Description: Introduced Box-Wilson central composite design for fitting a quadratic polynomial in several variables to experimental data, when an initial affine model had failed to yield a direction of ascent. The design and analysis is motivated by a problem in chemical engineering.
    Importance: Introduced response surface methodology for approximating local optima of systems with noisy observations of responses.