# 2024 United States presidential election in Vermont

Elections in Vermont :
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2024 :
State government
General elections
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Senate elections
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House of Representatives elections
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2024 :
Ballot measures
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Proposal 2
Proposal 5 :
Burlington
Mayoral elections
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2024 :
vte :
The 2024 United States presidential election in Vermont took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections. Vermont voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Vermont has 3 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.
Prior to the election, all major news organizations considered Vermont a state Harris would win, or otherwise a safe blue state.
Vermont was won by the Democratic candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, by a landslide margin of 31.51%; while her margin of victory decreased from Biden's 35.41% in 2020.

## Primary elections
### Republican primary

The Vermont Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Nikki Haley won the primary, becoming the first woman to win a state primary in a Republican presidential primary.
Vermont Republican primary, March 5, 2024 :
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | Actual delegate count | Actual delegate count |
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Bound | Unbound | Total |
| Nikki Haley | 36,241 | 49.32% | 9 | | 9 |
| Donald Trump | 33,162 | 45.13% | 8 | | 8 |
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 1,020 | 1.39% | | | |
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 949 | 1.29% | | | |
| Write-in votes | 586 | 0.80% | | | |
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 546 | 0.74% | | | |
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 278 | 0.38% | | | |
| Overvotes | 51 | 0.07% | | | |
| Blank ballots | 654 | 0.89% | | | |
| Total: | 73,487 | 100.00% | 17 | | 17 |

### Democratic primary

The Vermont Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Joe Biden won the primary.
Vermont Democratic primary, March 5, 2024 :
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | Actual delegate count | Actual delegate count |
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Pledged | Unpledged | Total |
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 56,924 | 82.98% | 16 | | |
| Marianne Williamson | 2,873 | 4.19% | | | |
| Dean Phillips | 1,942 | 2.83% | | | |
| Other write-ins | 1,260 | 1.84% | | | |
| Mark Greenstein | 779 | 1.14% | | | |
| Rashida Tlaib (write-in) | 763 | 1.11% | | | |
| Cenk Uygur | 700 | 1.02% | | | |
| "Blank" (write-in) | 556 | 0.81% | | | |
| Jason Palmer | 404 | 0.59% | | | |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (write-in) (Independent) | 322 | 0.47% | | | |
| Bernie Sanders (write-in) (Independent) | 288 | 0.42% | | | |
| Nikki Haley (write-in) (Republican) | 187 | 0.27% | | | |
| Kamala Harris (write-in) | 23 | 0.03% | | | |
| Overvotes | 73 | 0.10% | | | |
| Blank ballots | 1,525 | 2.22% | | | |
| Total: | 68,599 | 100% | 16 | 8 | 24 |

## General election
### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| Cook Political Report | Solid D | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections | Solid D | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe D | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill | Safe D | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis | Solid D | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN | Solid D | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist | Safe D | June 12, 2024 |
| 538 | Solid D | June 11, 2024 |
| NBC News | Safe D | October 6, 2024 |

### Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kamala Harris Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Other / Undecided |
| | August 23, 2024 | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. |
| | August 22, 2024 | Democratic National Convention concludes | Democratic National Convention concludes | Democratic National Convention concludes | Democratic National Convention concludes | Democratic National Convention concludes |
| University of New Hampshire | August 15–19, 2024 | 924 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 70% | 29% | 1% |
| | August 19, 2024 | Democratic National Convention begins | Democratic National Convention begins | Democratic National Convention begins | Democratic National Convention begins | Democratic National Convention begins |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kamala Harris Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Robert Kennedy Jr Independent | Cornel West Independent | Jill Stein Green | Chase Oliver Libertarian | Other / Undecided |
| University of New Hampshire | October 29 – November 2, 2024 | 1,167 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 63% | 31% | 2% | 0% | – | 0% | 4% |
| University of New Hampshire | August 15–19, 2024 | 924 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 67% | 27% | 3% | 0% | – | 0% | 3% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Other / Undecided |
| John Zogby Strategies | April 13–21, 2024 | 272 (LV) | – | 56% | 35% | 9% |
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | February 29 – March 3, 2024 | 117 (RV) | – | 58% | 28% | 14% |
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | February 29 – March 3, 2024 | 111 (LV) | – | 59% | 28% | 13% |
Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent | Other / Undecided |
| John Zogby Strategies | April 13–21, 2024 | 272 (LV) | – | 47% | 42% | 11% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent | Donald Trump Republican | Other / Undecided |
| John Zogby Strategies | April 13–21, 2024 | 272 (LV) | – | 52% | 29% | 19% |

### Results

* Republican — +0-2.5%
* Republican — +2.5-5%
* Republican — +5-7.5%
2024 United States presidential election in Vermont :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Democratic | Kamala HarrisTim Walz | 235,791 | 63.83% | –2.26% |
| | Republican | Donald TrumpJD Vance | 119,395 | 32.32% | +1.65% |
| | We the People | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (withdrawn)Nicole Shanahan (withdrawn) | 5,905 | 1.60% | New |
| | Libertarian | Chase OliverMike ter Maat | 1,828 | 0.49% | –0.49% |
| | Socialism and Liberation | Claudia De la CruzKarina Garcia | 1,710 | 0.46% | New |
| | Green Mountain Peace and Justice | Cornel WestMelina Abdullah | 1,549 | 0.42% | +0.37% |
| | Green | Jill Stein (write-in)Butch Ware (write-in) | 893 | 0.24% | −0.12% |
| | Socialist Workers | Rachele FruitDennis Richter | 211 | 0.06% | +0.01% |
| | Write-in | Write-in | 2,140 | 0.58% | N/A |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 369,422 | 100.00% | N/A |

#### By county

| County | Kamala Harris Democratic | Kamala Harris Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Donald Trump Republican | Various candidates Other parties | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Margin | Total |
| County | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | Total |
| Addison | 14,879 | 65.82% | 6,841 | 30.26% | 887 | 3.92% | 8,038 | 35.56% | 22,607 |
| Bennington | 12,326 | 59.52% | 7,697 | 37.17% | 687 | 3.31% | 4,629 | 22.35% | 20,710 |
| Caledonia | 8,977 | 53.97% | 6,927 | 41.65% | 729 | 4.38% | 2,050 | 12.32% | 16,633 |
| Chittenden | 72,656 | 74.65% | 20,937 | 21.51% | 3,736 | 3.84% | 51,719 | 53.14% | 97,329 |
| Essex | 1,344 | 39.24% | 1,890 | 55.18% | 191 | 5.58% | -546 | -15.94% | 3,425 |
| Franklin | 13,280 | 49.66% | 12,490 | 46.70% | 973 | 3.64% | 790 | 2.96% | 26,743 |
| Grand Isle | 2,940 | 58.79% | 1,893 | 37.85% | 168 | 3.36% | 1,047 | 20.94% | 5,001 |
| Lamoille | 9,788 | 65.94% | 4,505 | 30.35% | 551 | 3.71% | 5,283 | 35.59% | 14,844 |
| Orange | 10,220 | 57.83% | 6,683 | 37.82% | 769 | 4.35% | 3,537 | 20.01% | 17,672 |
| Orleans | 7,006 | 47.45% | 7,233 | 48.99% | 526 | 3.56% | -227 | -1.54% | 14,765 |
| Rutland | 17,375 | 50.95% | 15,586 | 45.70% | 1,141 | 3.35% | 1,789 | 5.25% | 34,102 |
| Washington | 24,527 | 69.35% | 9,327 | 26.37% | 1,515 | 4.28% | 15,200 | 42.98% | 35,369 |
| Windham | 17,904 | 69.04% | 6,928 | 26.71% | 1,101 | 4.25% | 10,976 | 42.33% | 25,933 |
| Windsor | 22,569 | 65.82% | 10,458 | 30.50% | 1,262 | 3.68% | 12,111 | 35.32% | 34,289 |
| Totals | 235,791 | 63.83% | 119,395 | 32.32% | 14,236 | 3.85% | 116,396 | 31.51% | 369,422 |

#### Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

* Orleans (largest city: Derby)

#### By congressional district

Due to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated. This district, called the at-large district because it covers the entire state, is thus equivalent to the statewide election results.
| District | Trump | Harris | Representative |
| At-large | 32.32% | 63.83% | Becca Balint |

## Analysis

A sparsely populated state in New England, Vermont is one of the most rural states in the nation and is considered to be deeply blue, contradicting a trend in modern American electoral politics in which rural areas tend to be red. It was historically a moderate to liberal "Yankee Republican" stronghold, having backed the GOP in all but one presidential election between the party's formation and George H.W. Bush's narrow victory in 1988, the exception being Lyndon B. Johnson's 1964 landslide. However, an influx of more liberal voters has turned Vermont into a Democratic stronghold at the presidential level since the early 1990s, as the state has been won by the Democratic candidate in every presidential race starting in 1992, all of these victories being by double digits apart from Al Gore's 9.93% win in 2000.
Trump managed to narrowly flip Orleans County, the first time for a presidential Republican candidate since 2000, and also the first time a Republican had won any county other than Essex County since then. Vermont was once again the most Democratic state in the nation, only the second occasion in the state's history (behind 2020) in which it was the strongest for the Democrats, and the first time since 1956 in which it was the strongest state for either party in back-to-back elections.