# 2023 Mississippi gubernatorial election

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The 2023 Mississippi gubernatorial election was held on November 7, 2023, to elect the governor of Mississippi. Incumbent Republican governor Tate Reeves won re-election to a second term, defeating Democratic nominee, Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley.
Primary elections were held on August 8. Reeves won the Republican nomination, while Presley won the Democratic nomination unopposed.
The race was considered to be competitive, with Reeves moderately favored. Reeves won re-election, but this was the best performance for a Democrat, the worst for a Republican, and the closest Mississippi gubernatorial election since 1999. It was also the closest ever gubernatorial election in the state won by a Republican, and the closest gubernatorial election in the 2023 cycle.

## Background

This was the first Mississippi gubernatorial election since a 2020 referendum altered the election process. Previously, under a provision crafted as part of the 1890 Constitution of Mississippi, a candidate needed a majority of voters across the state and a majority of voters in a majority of state House of Representatives districts; if no candidates achieved such a result, the state House of Representatives would choose between the top two finishers, something that only happened in 1999.
This structure was referred to as Mississippi's version of the electoral college; it was originally crafted, in the words of the Mississippi Historical Society, as part of "the legal basis and bulwark of the design of white supremacy". In the 21st century, because the state House districts favor Republican candidates, the provision was seen as helping Republican gubernatorial candidates as well. Under the new law, any candidate who receives a majority of statewide votes will be elected; if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, a statewide runoff election between the top two candidates will be held.
A socially conservative Southern state, Mississippi is considered safely Republican at the federal and state levels, with both of its U.S. senators, all but one of its U.S. representatives and all statewide executive officers currently belonging to the Republican Party. In the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump comfortably carried Mississippi by 17 percentage points. Incumbent governor Tate Reeves was first elected in 2019, narrowly defeating then-attorney general Jim Hood, who was the only Democrat elected to hold statewide office in Mississippi at the time.
Most analysts considered Reeves to be a favorite to win reelection, given the state's partisan lean and incumbency advantage. Nonetheless, the race was considered to be unusually competitive throughout the Fall as polling showed the race within the margin of error. Weaknesses for Reeves included his narrow victory four years prior, the heavy criticism he has faced for his handling of the Jackson water crisis, and for his ties to a welfare corruption scandal, both of which led him to have the lowest approval ratings of any Republican governor in the country. The Democratic nominee, Brandon Presley, was considered to be a strong general election candidate; he represented the Northern district on the Mississippi Public Service Commission since 2008, despite that district having a strong Republican bent, and held relatively moderate views on social issues, thus being closer to fitting the state.
Mississippi has the highest rate of disenfranchisement in the United States and around 16% of the African American voting age population is disenfranchised.

## Republican primary
### Candidates
#### Nominee

* Tate Reeves, incumbent governor

#### Eliminated in primary

* David Grady Hardigree, U.S. Army veteran
* John Witcher, physician

#### Declined

* Lynn Fitch, Mississippi Attorney General (ran for re-election)
* Robert Foster, former state representative and candidate for governor in 2019 (ran for the DeSoto County Board of Supervisors)
* Andy Gipson, Mississippi Commissioner of Agriculture and Commerce (ran for re-election)
* Philip Gunn, Speaker of the Mississippi House of Representatives
* Bill Waller Jr., former Chief Justice of the Mississippi Supreme Court, son of former governor Bill Waller, and candidate for governor in 2019
* Michael Watson, Mississippi Secretary of State (ran for re-election)
* Shad White, Mississippi state auditor (ran for re-election)

### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | David Hardigree | Tate Reeves | John Witcher | Other | Undecided |
| Mississippi Today/Siena College | Jun 4–7, 2023 | 646 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 0% | 59% | 0% | 8% | 33% |
| American Strategies | May 22–24, 2023 | 646 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 2% | 70% | 4% | - | 24% |
Tate Reeves vs. Bill Waller Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tate Reeves | Bill Waller Jr. | Undecided |
| Mississippi Today/Siena College | January 3–8, 2023 | 821 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 52% | 29% | 19% |

### Results

Republican primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Republican | Tate Reeves (incumbent) | 281,213 | 74.7 |
| | Republican | John Witcher | 66,698 | 17.7 |
| | Republican | David Grady Hardigree | 28,561 | 7.6 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 376,472 | 100.0 |

## Democratic primary
### Candidates
#### Nominee

* Brandon Presley, Mississippi Public Service Commissioner for the Northern District and Second Cousin of Elvis Presley

#### Disqualified

* Bob Hickingbottom, political consultant and Constitution nominee for governor in 2019
* Gregory Wash, songwriter and candidate for governor in 2019

#### Declined

* Shuwaski Young, political organizer and nominee for Mississippi's 3rd congressional district in 2022 (ran for Secretary of State)

### Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 9, 2023 :
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Brandon Presley | $1,760,057 | $773,134 | $1,714,455 |

### Results

Democratic primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Democratic | Brandon Presley | 196,307 | 100.0 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 196,307 | 100.0 |

## Independents
### Candidates
#### Withdrawn

* Gwendolyn Gray, nonprofit executive (endorsed Presley, remained on ballot)

#### Declined

* George Flaggs Jr., mayor of Vicksburg and former Democratic state representative
* Bill Waller Jr., former Chief Justice of the Mississippi Supreme Court, son of former governor Bill Waller, and candidate for governor in 2019

## General election
### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| The Cook Political Report | Lean R | October 23, 2023 |
| Inside Elections | Lean R | September 1, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely R | October 16, 2023 |
| Elections Daily | Likely R | November 7, 2023 |

### Debate

| Dates | Location | Presley | Reeves | Link |
| November 1, 2023 | WAPT Studios Jackson | Participant | Participant | YouTube |

### Endorsements

Executive Branch officials
* Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)
State senators
* Charles Younger, state senator from the 17th district (2014–present)
State representatives
* Angela Cockerham, state representative from the 96th district (2006–present) (Independent)
Local officials
* George Bass, mayor of Long Beach (2017–present)
* Nancy Depreo, mayor of Diamondhead (2020–present)
* Mike Favre, mayor of Bay St. Louis (2017–present)
* James Rafferty, mayor of Pass Christian (2021–present)
* Jay Trapani, mayor of Waveland (2023–present)
Organizations
* Gulf Coast Business Council
* Mississippi Associated General Contractors
* Mississippi Association of Realtors
* National Federation of Independent Business
* National Rifle Association of America Political Victory Fund
* Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America
Executive Branch officials
* Robert Martinez Jr., President's Export Councilor (2023–present) and International President of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (2016–present)
U.S. representatives
* Michael Parker, former U.S. representative from Mississippi's 4th congressional district (1989–1999) and Republican nominee for governor in 1999 (Republican)
* Bennie Thompson, U.S. representative from Mississippi's 2nd congressional district (1993–present)
Statewide officials
* John Bel Edwards, Governor of Louisiana (2016–2024)
* Dick Molpus, former Secretary of State of Mississippi (1984–1996) and Democratic nominee for governor in 1995
* Phil Murphy, Governor of New Jersey (2018–present)
* Gavin Newsom, Governor of California (2019–present)
State senators
* Kelvin Butler, state senator from the 38th district (2021–present)
* Robert Jackson, state senator from the 11th district (2004–present)
* Derrick Simmons, Mississippi Senate Minority Leader (2017–present) from the 12th district (2011–present)
State representatives
* Otis Anthony, state representative from the 31st district (2018–present)
* Bryant Clark, state representative from the 47th district (2004–present)
* John Faulkner, state representative from the 5th district (2014–present)
* John Grisham, state representative from the 7th district (1983–1990)
* Timaka James-Jones, state representative-elect from the 51st district (2023–present)
* Daryl Porter Jr., state representative from the 98th district (2020–present)
* Robert Sanders, state representative from the 29th district (2021–present)
Local officials
* Phillip Baulch, mayor of Nettleton (2022–present)
* Hosea Bogan, Monroe County Supervisor
* Jackie Bradford, Scott County Supervisor
* Leah Brown, mayor of Sturgis (2021–present)
* James Dunn, Tunica County Supervisor
* Debra Mabry, Holmes County Supervisor
* Fred Magee, Holmes County Supervisor
* Reggie Moore, Leflore County Supervisor
* Buddy Palmer, Councilman for Ward 5 of Tupelo (Republican)
* Orlando Trainer, Oktibbeha County Supervisor
* Johnny Thomas, mayor of Glendora (1982–present)
* Chip Wood, Alderman for Ward 3 of Corinth (Republican)
* Roderick Woullard, Forrest County Supervisor
Individuals
* James Barksdale, executive
* Gwendolyn Gray, nonprofit executive and former 2023 gubernatorial candidate (Independent)
* Morgan Freeman, actor
* Margaret Huang, human rights and racial justice advocate
* Karla Jurvetson, vice chair of EMILY's List
* Richard Scruggs, former lawyer and brother-in-law of former Republican U.S. senator Trent Lott
Labor unions
* Central South Regional Council of Carpenters
* International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers
* Mississippi AFL-CIO
* Mississippi Education Association
* Mississippi Hospital Association
* Mississippi State Council of Machinists
Newspapers and other media
* The Commercial Dispatch
* The Daily Mississippian
* The Greenwood Commonwealth
* Northeast Mississippi News
Organizations
* Democrats for Life of America
* Southern Poverty Law Center Action Fund

### Polling

Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Tate Reeves (R) | Brandon Presley (D) | Other | Margin |
| Real Clear Politics | August 20 – October 2, 2023 | October 5, 2022 | 51.5% | 42.0% | 6.5% | Reeves +9.5% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tate Reeves (R) | Brandon Presley (D) | Other | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | October 19–20, 2023 | 601 (V) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 45% | – | 10% |
| Magnolia Tribune/Mason-Dixon | September 27 – October 2, 2023 | 625 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 43% | – | 6% |
| Mississippi Today/Siena College | August 20–28, 2023 | 650 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 41% | 1% | 6% |
| Impact Research (D) | August 6–9, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 46% | – | 8% |
| OnMessage Inc. (R) | July 7, 2023 | – | – | 49% | 32% | – | 19% |
| Impact Research (D) | April 24–27, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 44% | – | 9% |
| Mississippi Today/Siena College | April 16–20, 2023 | 783 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 49% | 38% | 7% | 6% |
| Magnolia Tribune/Mason-Dixon | March 6–10, 2023 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 39% | – | 15% |
| Mississippi Today/Tulchin Research | January 21–25, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 47% | – | 10% |
| Mississippi Today/Siena College | January 3–8, 2023 | 821 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 43% | 39% | 2% | 14% |
| Impact Research (D) | December 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 42% | – | 9% |
Tate Reeves vs. generic opponent
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tate Reeves (R) | Generic Opponent | Undecided |
| Mississippi Today/Siena College | April 16–20, 2023 | 783 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 36% | 60% | 4% |
| Mississippi Today/Siena College | January 3–8, 2023 | 821 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 33% | 57% | 10% |

### Results

* Democratic—+10-15%
* Democratic—+5-10%
* Democratic—+<5%
* Republican—+<5%
* Republican—+5-10%
* Republican—+10-15%
* Democratic—+20-25%
* Democratic—+15-20%
* Democratic—+10-15%
* Democratic—+5-10%
* Democratic—+<5%
* Republican—+<5%
2023 Mississippi gubernatorial election :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Republican | Tate Reeves (incumbent) | 418,233 | 50.94% | –0.97% |
| | Democratic | Brandon Presley | 391,614 | 47.70% | +0.87% |
| | Independent | Gwendolyn Gray (withdrawn) | 11,153 | 1.36% | N/A |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 821,000 | 100.00% | |
| | Republican hold | Republican hold | Republican hold | Republican hold | Republican hold |

#### Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

* Forrest (largest city: Hattiesburg)
* Grenada (largest city: Grenada)
* Lowndes (largest city: Columbus)
* Winston (largest city: Louisville)
* Yalobusha (largest city: Water Valley)

#### Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

* Lafayette (largest city: Oxford)
* Madison (largest city: Madison)

#### By congressional district

Reeves won 3 of 4 congressional districts.
| District | Reeves | Presley | Representative |
| 1st | 58.0% | 40.7% | Trent Kelly |
| 2nd | 31.4% | 67.3% | Bennie Thompson |
| 3rd | 55.7% | 43.1% | Michael Guest |
| 4th | 62.3% | 36.0% | Mike Ezell |