# 2023 Manitoba general election

The 2023 Manitoba general election was held on October 3, 2023, to elect 57 members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba. The incumbent Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba, led by Premier of Manitoba Heather Stefanson, had attempted to win a third term in government, having previously won the 2016 and 2019 elections under the leadership of Brian Pallister. The New Democratic Party of Manitoba, led by Wab Kinew, formed a majority government, defeating the two-term Progressive Conservative government. Following the election, Kinew became the first First Nations person to become premier of a Canadian province.

## Background

Under Manitoba's Elections Act, a general election must be held no later than the first Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year following the previous election. As the previous election was held in 2019, the latest possible date for the election was October 3, 2023, which was the official election date. The election was held under first-past-the-post voting.
On August 10, 2021, incumbent premier Brian Pallister announced that he would not seek re-election and resigned shortly after. Members of the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba elected Heather Stefanson to succeed Premier Kelvin Goertzen, who served as interim leader of the party after Pallister's departure. During the previous legislature, the opposition NDP had gained a polling lead over the PCs. However, the lead tightened during the campaign period.

### Campaign

Stefanson primarily campaigned on reducing the cost of living for Manitobans, crime, and parental rights in education. Kinew led the NDP into the election. The NDP campaign focused on healthcare reform and balancing the province's budget. Dougald Lamont led the Liberals and Janine Gibson led the Green Party, having been elected leader in March.
The PCs promoted the film industry in the province and in 2022 helped WestJet launch direct flights from Los Angeles to Winnipeg. The New Democrats focused on healthcare with a promise to improve cardiac services. They also pledged to install geothermal systems in thousands of homes. The Liberals campaigned on creating more benefits for seniors, including establishing a minimum income for people over 60. They also promised a new debt relief system if elected. The Manitoba Chambers of Commerce encouraged voters to prioritise the economy when voting.
During the final stages of the campaign, a point of contention was the proposed search of a Winnipeg landfill for the remains of the murdered Indigenous women Morgan Harris and Marcedes Myran. The PCs opposed the search, citing health and safety concerns. The Liberals and NDP supported a search. Most other Indigenous issues were reportedly side-lined during the campaign.
Other campaign issues included crime, agriculture and affordable housing.
Manitoba had not elected a minority government since 1988, so the media coverage was focused on the PCs and the NDP. In the final days of the campaign, the Manitoba government reported a surplus in the provincial budget worth $270 million.
Riding contests, by number of candidates (2023) :
| Candidates | NDP | PC | Lib | Grn | KP | Comm | Ind | Total |
| 2 | 4 | 4 | | | | | | 8 |
| 3 | 34 | 34 | 30 | 3 | 1 | | | 102 |
| 4 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 64 |
| 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | | 3 | | 15 |
| Total | 57 | 57 | 49 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 189 |

## Timeline
### 2021

* July 15: Eileen Clarke resigns as Minister of Indigenous and Northern Relations but stays on as MLA for Agassiz.
* July 15 Blaine Pedersen resigns as Minister of Agriculture and Resource Development. He announces he will not seek re-election.
* August 10: Brian Pallister announces he will not seek re-election as the MLA for Fort Whyte and will resign as premier.
* September 1: Brian Pallister resigns as Premier and leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba but remains as the MLA for Fort Whyte.
* September 1: Kelvin Goertzen is chosen by the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba to become its interim leader and the 23rd Premier of Manitoba. Rochelle Squires is appointed as the Deputy Premier.
* October 4: Brian Pallister resigns as the MLA for Fort Whyte, triggering a by-election.
* October 30: Heather Stefanson is elected as leader of the Progressive Conservative Party.
* November 2: Kelvin Goertzen resigns as Premier of Manitoba.
* November 2: Heather Stefanson is sworn in as the 24th Premier of Manitoba and is the first woman to hold the position.
* December 9: Danielle Adams (Thompson) dies in office, triggering a by-election.
* December 30: Ron Schuler is removed from cabinet post as Minister of Infrastructure. Reg Helwer is appointed as acting Minister of Infrastructure.

### 2022

* January 18: Premier Heather Stefanson shuffles her cabinet.
* March 22: Obby Khan is elected in the Fort Whyte by-election, replacing former Premier Brian Pallister. The Progressive Conservatives hold the seat narrowly.
* June 6: Scott Fielding resigns as Minister of Natural Resources and Northern Development, Minister responsible for Manitoba Liquor and Lotteries and announces his intention to resign as MLA for Kirkfield Park.
* June 6: Alan Lagimodiere is named acting Minister of Natural Resources and Northern Development, Minister responsible for Manitoba Liquor and Lotteries.
* June 7: Eric Redhead is elected as the MLA for Thompson, holding the seat for the NDP.
* June 17: Scott Fielding resigns as MLA for Kirkfield Park.
* October 4: Ralph Eichler announces he will not seek re-election as MLA for Lakeside.
* December 16: Ian Wishart announces he will not seek re-election as MLA for Portage La Prairie.

### 2023

* January 15: Cathy Cox announces she Will not seek re-election as MLA for Kildonan River East.
* January 27: Cameron Friesen announces his resignation as finance minister and MLA.
* January 30: Cliff Cullen is appointed as finance minister and retains Deputy Premier role.
* June 13: Sarah Guillemard announces she will not seek re-election as MLA for Fort Richmond.

## Legislature summary

Elections to the 43rd Manitoba Legislature :
| Party | Party | Leader | Candidates | Seats | Seats | Seats | Seats | Seats | Popular vote | Popular vote | Popular vote |
| Party | Party | Leader | Candidates | 2019 | Dissolution | Elected | % | +/– | Votes | % | Change (pp) |
| | New Democratic | Wab Kinew | 57 | 18 | 18 | 34 | 59.65 | +16 | 221,695 | 45.63 | +14.25 |
| | Progressive Conservative | Heather Stefanson | 57 | 36 | 35 | 22 | 38.60 | –14 | 203,350 | 41.86 | −5.21 |
| | Liberal | Dougald Lamont | 49 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1.75 | –2 | 51,634 | 10.63 | −3.85 |
| | Keystone | Kevin Friesen | 5 | – | – | – | – | − | 3,727 | 0.77 | New |
| | Green | Janine Gibson | 13 | – | – | – | – | − | 3,584 | 0.74 | −5.63 |
| | Communist | Andrew Taylor | 5 | – | – | – | – | − | 461 | 0.09 | +0.04 |
| | Independents | Independents | 3 | – | – | – | – | − | 1,383 | 0.28 | +0.10 |
| | Vacant | Vacant | Vacant | Vacant | 1 |
| Valid votes | Valid votes | Valid votes | | | | | | | 485,834 | 99.31 |
| Blank and invalid votes | Blank and invalid votes | Blank and invalid votes | | | | | | | 3,374 | 0.69 |
| Total | Total | Total | 189 | 57 | 57 | – | | | 489,208 | 100 |
| Registered voters/turnout | Registered voters/turnout | Registered voters/turnout | | | | | | | 884,864 | 55.29 |

### Incumbents not running for re-election

| Electoral district | Incumbent at dissolution and subsequent party nominee | Incumbent at dissolution and subsequent party nominee | New MLA |
| Agassiz | Eileen Clarke | Jodie Byram | Jodie Byram |
| Brandon West | Reg Helwer | Wayne Balcaen | Wayne Balcaen |
| Fort Richmond | Sarah Guillemard | Paramjit Shahi | Jennifer Chen |
| Kildonan-River East | Cathy Cox | Alana Vannahme | Rachelle Schott |
| Lakeside | Ralph Eichler | Trevor King | Trevor King |
| La Verendrye | Dennis Smook | Konrad Narth | Konrad Narth |
| McPhillips | Shannon Martin | Sheilah Restall | Jasdeep Devgan |
| Midland | Blaine Pedersen | Lauren Stone | Lauren Stone |
| Portage la Prairie | Ian Wishart | Jeff Bereza | Jeff Bereza |
| Roblin | Myrna Driedger | Kathleen Cook | Kathleen Cook |
| Spruce Woods | Cliff Cullen | Grant Jackson | Grant Jackson |
| Selkirk | Alan Lagimodiere | Richard Perchotte | Richard Perchotte |

## Candidates

The PCs and New Democrats ran candidates in all 57 ridings, while the Liberals ran candidates in 49 and the Greens in 13, respectively.

## Marginal seats
### Previous marginal seats

Seats in the 2019 general election which were won by under 10%
| Seat | 2019 held | 2019 held | 2019 held | 2023 winner | 2023 winner | 2023 winner |
| Seat | Party | Party | Margin | Party | Party | Margin |
| McPhillips | | PC | 1.00% | | NDP | 3.02% |
| Transcona | | NDP | 1.29% | | NDP | 23.06% |
| Southdale | | PC | 4.56% | | NDP | 14.32% |
| Rossmere | | PC | 8.06% | | NDP | 8.29% |
| Dauphin | | PC | 8.13% | | NDP | 3.28% |
| Assiniboia | | PC | 8.79% | | NDP | 9.69% |
| Riel | | PC | 9.36% | | NDP | 16.61% |
| St. Vital | | NDP | 9.58% | | NDP | 30.79% |
| The Maples | | NDP | 9.75% | | NDP | 32.33% |
| Wolseley | | NDP | 9.98% | | NDP | 65.42% |

### New marginal seats

Seats in this general election which were won by under 10%.
| Seat | 2019 held | 2019 held | 2019 held | 2023 Winner | 2023 Winner | 2023 Winner |
| Seat | Party | Party | Margin | Party | Party | Margin |
| Lagimodière | | PC | 23.91% | | NDP | 0.84% |
| Brandon West | | PC | 24.59% | | PC | 1.22% |
| Waverley | | PC | 21.45% | | NDP | 1.30% |
| Tuxedo | | PC | 24.57% | | PC | 2.65% |
| McPhillips | | PC | 1.00% | | NDP | 3.02% |
| Dauphin | | PC | 8.13% | | NDP | 3.28% |
| Selkirk | | PC | 16.42% | | PC | 4.98% |
| River Heights | | Lib | 29.09% | | NDP | 5.58% |
| Kirkfield Park | | PC | 24.68% | | NDP | 5.94% |
| Interlake-Gimli | | PC | 25.55% | | PC | 6.59% |
| Kildonan-River East | | PC | 17.06% | | NDP | 6.71% |
| Rossmere | | PC | 8.06% | | NDP | 8.29% |
| Dawson Trail | | PC | 32.54% | | PC | 8.90% |
| Roblin | | PC | 37.19% | | PC | 9.15% |
| Assiniboia | | PC | 8.79% | | NDP | 9.69% |

## Results

Results were formally declared on October 3, the night of the election. The NDP only finished four percentage points ahead of the Tories on the popular vote. However, they dominated Winnipeg, taking all but three seats in the capital. Eight members of Stefanson's cabinet were defeated, all in Winnipeg-based ridings. Stefanson herself was nearly defeated in her historically safe seat of Tuxedo, surviving by less than three percentage points.

### Results overview

Popular vote
NDP
45.63%
PC
41.86%
Liberal
10.63%
Others
1.88% :
Seats
NDP
59.65%
PC
38.60%
Liberal
1.75% :

### Synopsis of results

2023 Manitoba general election – synopsis of riding results :
| Electoral division | Winning party | Winning party | Winning party | Winning party | Winning party | Winning party | Winning party | Winning party | Winning party | Winning party | Winning party | Winning party | Turnout | Votes | Votes | Votes | Votes | Votes | Votes | Votes | Votes |
| Electoral division | 2019 | 2019 | 1st place | 1st place | Votes | Share | Margin # | Margin % | 2nd place | 2nd place | 3rd place | 3rd place | Turnout | NDP | PC | Lib | Key | Green | Comm | Ind | Total |
| Agassiz | | PC | | PC | 4,519 | 63.85% | 2,966 | 41.91% | | NDP | | Key | 53.35% | 1,553 | 4,519 | 311 | 694 | – | – | – | 7,077 |
| Assiniboia | | PC | | NDP | 4,722 | 50.02% | 916 | 9.70% | | PC | | Lib | 55.70% | 4,722 | 3,806 | 913 | – | – | – | – | 9,441 |
| Borderland | | PC | | PC | 4,479 | 72.66% | 3,558 | 57.72% | | NDP | | Lib | 50.45% | 921 | 4,479 | 764 | – | – | – | – | 6,164 |
| Brandon East | | PC | | NDP | 3,758 | 55.64% | 1,067 | 15.80% | | PC | | Lib | 46.99% | 3,758 | 2,691 | 305 | – | – | – | – | 6,754 |
| Brandon West | | PC | | PC | 3,814 | 48.75% | 89 | 1.14% | | NDP | | Green | 51.68% | 3,725 | 3,814 | – | – | 284 | – | – | 7,823 |
| Burrows | | NDP | | NDP | 3,032 | 46.04% | 958 | 14.55% | | Lib | | PC | 44.64% | 3,032 | 1,479 | 2,074 | – | – | – | – | 6,585 |
| Concordia | | NDP | | NDP | 4,235 | 64.52% | 2,387 | 36.37% | | PC | | Lib | 44.03% | 4,235 | 1,848 | 481 | – | – | – | – | 6,564 |
| Dauphin | | PC | | NDP | 4,887 | 52.06% | 386 | 4.11% | | PC | N/A | N/A | 60.30% | 4,887 | 4,501 | – | – | – | – | – | 9,388 |
| Dawson Trail | | PC | | PC | 4,592 | 50.70% | 543 | 6.00% | | NDP | | Green | 56.86% | 4,049 | 4,592 | – | – | 416 | – | – | 9,057 |
| Elmwood | | NDP | | NDP | 4,933 | 62.21% | 2,745 | 34.62% | | PC | | Lib | 49.32% | 4,933 | 2,188 | 452 | – | 304 | 52 | – | 7,929 |
| Flin Flon | | NDP | | NDP | 2,951 | 76.25% | 2,032 | 52.51% | | PC | N/A | N/A | 44.17% | 2,951 | 919 | – | – | – | – | – | 3,870 |
| Fort Garry | | NDP | | NDP | 5,319 | 58.82% | 2,914 | 32.22% | | PC | | Lib | 58.75% | 5,319 | 2,405 | 1,082 | – | 237 | – | – | 9,043 |
| Fort Richmond | | PC | | NDP | 4,455 | 54.45% | 1,576 | 19.26% | | PC | | Lib | 62.07% | 4,455 | 2,879 | 848 | – | – | – | – | 8,182 |
| Fort Rouge | | NDP | | NDP | 6,761 | 70.57% | 5,195 | 54.22% | | PC | | Lib | 58.04% | 6,761 | 1,566 | 1,152 | – | – | 102 | – | 9,581 |
| Fort Whyte | | PC | | PC | 5,442 | 47.87% | 1,229 | 10.81% | | Lib | | NDP | 64.37% | 1,714 | 5,442 | 4,213 | – | – | – | – | 11,369 |
| Interlake-Gimli | | PC | | PC | 5,143 | 49.59% | 683 | 6.59% | | NDP | | Key | 65.04% | 4,460 | 5,143 | 374 | 393 | – | – | – | 10,370 |
| Keewatinook | | NDP | | NDP | 1,820 | 59.28% | 762 | 24.82% | | PC | | Lib | 39.14% | 1,820 | 1,058 | 192 | – | – | – | – | 3,070 |
| Kildonan-River East | | PC | | NDP | 5,574 | 49.26% | 729 | 6.44% | | PC | | Lib | 63.18% | 5,574 | 4,845 | 896 | – | – | – | – | 11,315 |
| Kirkfield Park | | PC | | NDP | 5,067 | 44.55% | 661 | 5.81% | | PC | | Lib | 63.76% | 5,067 | 4,406 | 1,696 | – | 205 | – | – | 11,374 |
| La Verendrye | | PC | | PC | 4,586 | 61.02% | 3,032 | 40.34% | | NDP | | Key | 55.54% | 1,554 | 4,586 | 640 | 736 | – | – | – | 7,516 |
| Lac du Bonnet | | PC | | PC | 5,670 | 58.51% | 2,223 | 22.94% | | NDP | | Green | 60.77% | 3,447 | 5,670 | – | – | 573 | – | – | 9,690 |
| Lagimodière | | PC | | NDP | 5,711 | 46.24% | 112 | 0.91% | | PC | | Lib | 64.05% | 5,711 | 5,599 | 1,041 | – | – | – | – | 12,351 |
| Lakeside | | PC | | PC | 6,088 | 61.68% | 3,406 | 34.51% | | NDP | | Lib | 60.98% | 2,682 | 6,088 | 1,101 | – | – | – | – | 9,871 |
| McPhillips | | PC | | NDP | 4,905 | 47.30% | 325 | 3.13% | | PC | | Lib | 54.61% | 4,905 | 4,580 | 886 | – | – | – | – | 10,371 |
| Midland | | PC | | PC | 6,227 | 69.38% | 4,216 | 46.97% | | NDP | | Lib | 56.95% | 2,011 | 6,227 | 737 | – | – | – | – | 8,975 |
| Morden-Winkler | | PC | | PC | 5,135 | 73.47% | 3,535 | 50.58% | | NDP | | Lib | 44.32% | 1,600 | 5,135 | 254 | – | – | – | – | 6,989 |
| Notre Dame | | NDP | | NDP | 3,832 | 75.58% | 3,100 | 61.14% | | PC | | Lib | 37.88% | 3,832 | 732 | 319 | – | 105 | 82 | – | 5,070 |
| Point Douglas | | NDP | | NDP | 3,367 | 73.31% | 2,625 | 57.15% | | PC | | Lib | 32.76% | 3,367 | 742 | 484 | – | – | – | – | 4,593 |
| Portage la Prairie | | PC | | PC | 3,816 | 59.61% | 1,898 | 29.65% | | NDP | | Green | 46.77% | 1,918 | 3,816 | 301 | – | 367 | – | – | 6,402 |
| Radisson | | PC | | NDP | 5,954 | 52.31% | 1,147 | 10.08% | | PC | | Lib | 57.65% | 5,954 | 4,807 | 621 | – | – | – | – | 11,382 |
| Red River North | | PC | | PC | 5,926 | 60.35% | 2,033 | 20.70% | | NDP | N/A | N/A | 60.47% | 3,893 | 5,926 | – | – | – | – | – | 9,819 |
| Riding Mountain | | PC | | PC | 5,644 | 63.02% | 2,749 | 30.69% | | NDP | | Lib | 57.42% | 2,895 | 5,644 | 417 | – | – | – | – | 8,956 |
| Riel | | PC | | NDP | 6,160 | 54.65% | 1,882 | 16.70% | | PC | | Lib | 65.70% | 6,160 | 4,278 | 834 | – | – | – | – | 11,272 |
| River Heights | | Lib | | NDP | 5,047 | 44.21% | 643 | 5.63% | | Lib | | PC | 67.59% | 5,047 | 1,807 | 4,404 | – | 158 | – | – | 11,416 |
| Roblin | | PC | | PC | 6,088 | 49.72% | 1,120 | 9.15% | | NDP | | Lib | 62.54% | 4,968 | 6,088 | 1,189 | – | – | – | – | 12,245 |
| Rossmere | | PC | | NDP | 4,863 | 50.74% | 801 | 8.36% | | PC | | Lib | 60.42% | 4,863 | 4,062 | 478 | – | 181 | – | – | 9,584 |
| Seine River | | PC | | NDP | 5,381 | 52.08% | 1,407 | 13.62% | | PC | | Lib | 63.64% | 5,381 | 3,974 | 846 | – | – | – | 131 | 10,332 |
| Selkirk | | PC | | PC | 4,963 | 52.49% | 470 | 4.97% | | NDP | N/A | N/A | 56.29% | 4,493 | 4,963 | – | – | – | – | – | 9,456 |
| Southdale | | PC | | NDP | 5,569 | 48.48% | 1,647 | 14.34% | | PC | | Lib | 64.72% | 5,569 | 3,922 | 1,861 | – | – | – | 135 | 11,487 |
| Springfield-Ritchot | | PC | | PC | 5,752 | 54.89% | 1,925 | 18.37% | | NDP | | Lib | 58.30% | 3,827 | 5,752 | 900 | – | – | – | – | 10,479 |
| Spruce Woods | | PC | | PC | 4,986 | 61.81% | 3,050 | 37.81% | | NDP | | Lib | 56.54% | 1,936 | 4,986 | 1,145 | – | – | – | – | 8,067 |
| St. Boniface | | Lib | | NDP | 5,585 | 53.38% | 2,172 | 20.76% | | Lib | | PC | 60.06% | 5,585 | 1,391 | 3,413 | – | – | 73 | – | 10,462 |
| St. James | | NDP | | NDP | 5,448 | 64.82% | 3,122 | 37.14% | | PC | | Lib | 54.68% | 5,448 | 2,326 | 631 | – | – | – | – | 8,405 |
| St. Johns | | NDP | | NDP | 4,262 | 60.76% | 3,145 | 44.83% | | Ind | | PC | 46.98% | 4,262 | 1,101 | 535 | – | – | – | 1,117 | 7,015 |
| St. Vital | | NDP | | NDP | 5,288 | 61.15% | 2,751 | 31.81% | | PC | | Lib | 56.88% | 5,288 | 2,537 | 823 | – | – | – | – | 8,648 |
| Steinbach | | PC | | PC | 5,868 | 74.37% | 4,647 | 58.90% | | NDP | | Lib | 48.14% | 1,221 | 5,868 | 801 | – | – | – | – | 7,890 |
| Swan River | | PC | | PC | 4,801 | 62.91% | 2,368 | 31.03% | | NDP | | Key | 57.90% | 2,433 | 4,801 | – | 397 | – | – | – | 7,631 |
| The Maples | | NDP | | NDP | 3,905 | 56.13% | 2,325 | 33.42% | | PC | | Lib | 50.62% | 3,905 | 1,580 | 1,472 | – | – | – | – | 6,957 |
| The Pas-Kameesak | | NDP | | NDP | 3,522 | 67.18% | 2,016 | 38.45% | | PC | | Lib | 53.52% | 3,522 | 1,506 | 215 | – | – | – | – | 5,243 |
| Thompson | | NDP | | NDP | 2,887 | 68.28% | 1,673 | 39.57% | | PC | | Lib | 36.10% | 2,887 | 1,214 | 127 | – | – | – | – | 4,228 |
| Transcona | | NDP | | NDP | 5,235 | 58.50% | 2,063 | 23.06% | | PC | | Lib | 51.40% | 5,235 | 3,172 | 541 | – | – | – | – | 8,948 |
| Turtle Mountain | | PC | | PC | 4,806 | 55.05% | 2,813 | 32.22% | | NDP | | Key | 55.64% | 1,993 | 4,806 | 425 | 1,507 | – | – | – | 8,731 |
| Tuxedo | | PC | | PC | 3,968 | 40.21% | 268 | 2.72% | | NDP | | Lib | 59.86% | 3,700 | 3,968 | 2,201 | – | – | – | – | 9,869 |
| Tyndall Park | | Lib | | Lib | 4,030 | 54.99% | 2,122 | 28.96% | | NDP | | PC | 49.75% | 1,908 | 1,390 | 4,030 | – | – | – | – | 7,328 |
| Union Station | | NDP | | NDP | 3,714 | 70.78% | 2,797 | 53.31% | | PC | | Lib | 42.21% | 3,714 | 917 | 616 | – | – | – | – | 5,247 |
| Waverley | | PC | | NDP | 4,063 | 44.10% | 115 | 1.25% | | PC | | Lib | 53.97% | 4,063 | 3,948 | 1,001 | – | 201 | – | – | 9,213 |
| Wolseley | | NDP | | NDP | 6,582 | 75.31% | 5,721 | 65.46% | | PC | | Lib | 53.77% | 6,582 | 861 | 592 | – | 553 | 152 | – | 8,740 |
* ↑ Sorted as per results summary.
* ↑ Including rejected and declined ballots.
    = open seat
    = turnout is above provincial average
    = winning candidate was in previous Legislature
    = other incumbents renominated
    = previously an MP in the House of Commons of Canada

### Comparative analysis for ridings (2023 vs 2019)

Summary of riding results by turnout, vote share for winning candidate, and swing (vs 2019) :
| Riding and winning party | Riding and winning party | Riding and winning party | Riding and winning party | Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | Turnout | Vote share | Vote share | Vote share | Vote share | Swing | Swing | Swing |
| Riding and winning party | Riding and winning party | Riding and winning party | Riding and winning party | % | Change (pp) | Change (pp) | Change (pp) | % | Change (pp) | Change (pp) | Change (pp) | Change (pp) | Change (pp) | Change (pp) |
| Agassiz | | PC | Hold | 53.35 | -2.70 | | | 63.85 | -11.67 | | | -10.42 | | |
| Assiniboia | | NDP | Gain | 55.70 | 1.00 | | 1 | 50.02 | 14.55 | | 14.55 | -9.25 | | |
| Borderland | | PC | Hold | 50.45 | -11.41 | | | 72.66 | 6.57 | | 6.57 | 5.38 | | 5.38 |
| Brandon East | | NDP | Gain | 46.99 | 1.30 | | 1.3 | 55.64 | 19.30 | | 19.3 | -15.23 | | |
| Brandon West | | PC | Hold | 51.68 | 0.41 | | 0.41 | 48.75 | -9.64 | | | -16.73 | | |
| Burrows | | NDP | Hold | 44.64 | -1.43 | | | 46.04 | 6.35 | | 6.35 | 5.00 | | 5 |
| Concordia | | NDP | Hold | 44.03 | -4.43 | | | 64.52 | 4.83 | | 4.83 | 4.25 | | 4.25 |
| Dauphin | | NDP | Gain | 60.30 | 1.68 | | 1.68 | 52.06 | 9.67 | | 9.67 | -6.12 | | |
| Dawson Trail | | PC | Hold | 56.86 | -0.98 | | | 50.70 | -4.71 | | | 9.08 | | 9.08 |
| Elmwood | | NDP | Hold | 49.32 | -0.90 | | | 62.21 | 13.53 | | 13.53 | 8.88 | | 8.88 |
| Flin Flon | | NDP | Hold | 44.17 | 10.26 | | 10.26 | 76.25 | 13.06 | | 13.06 | 8.17 | | 8.17 |
| Fort Garry | | NDP | Hold | 58.75 | -2.94 | | | 58.82 | 16.47 | | 16.47 | 10.84 | | 10.84 |
| Fort Richmond | | NDP | Gain | 62.07 | 4.68 | | 4.68 | 54.45 | 32.24 | | 32.24 | 6.70 | | 6.7 |
| Fort Rouge | | NDP | Hold | 58.04 | -0.73 | | | 70.57 | 19.33 | | 19.33 | 10.90 | | 10.9 |
| Fort Whyte | | PC | Hold | 64.37 | 4.02 | | 4.02 | 47.87 | -9.32 | | | -3.26 | | |
| Interlake-Gimli | | PC | Hold | 65.04 | -0.52 | | | 49.59 | -9.03 | | | -9.48 | | |
| Keewatinook | | NDP | Hold | 39.14 | 17.29 | | 17.29 | 59.28 | -7.80 | | | 2.26 | | 2.26 |
| Kildonan-River East | | NDP | Gain | 63.18 | 1.36 | | 1.36 | 49.26 | 15.23 | | 15.23 | -11.75 | | |
| Kirkfield Park | | NDP | Gain | 63.76 | 2.51 | | 2.51 | 44.55 | 18.87 | | 18.87 | -15.24 | | |
| La Vérendrye | | PC | Hold | 55.54 | 0.13 | | 0.13 | 61.02 | -11.77 | | | -9.06 | | |
| Lac du Bonnet | | PC | Hold | 60.77 | -0.46 | | | 58.51 | -7.40 | | | -11.81 | | |
| Lagimodière | | NDP | Gain | 64.05 | 1.78 | | 1.78 | 46.24 | 18.37 | | 18.37 | -12.41 | | |
| Lakeside | | PC | Hold | 60.98 | 1.76 | | 1.76 | 61.68 | -6.56 | | | -5.75 | | |
| McPhillips | | NDP | Gain | 54.61 | -2.03 | | | 47.30 | 10.10 | | 10.1 | -2.07 | | |
| Midland | | PC | Hold | 56.95 | -2.32 | | | 69.38 | -5.63 | | | -6.34 | | |
| Morden-Winkler | | PC | Hold | 44.32 | -6.87 | | | 73.47 | -7.39 | | | 1.63 | | 1.63 |
| Notre Dame | | NDP | Hold | 37.88 | -2.98 | | | 75.58 | 10.58 | | 10.58 | 5.61 | | 5.61 |
| Point Douglas | | NDP | Hold | 32.76 | -3.24 | | | 73.31 | 10.96 | | 10.96 | 4.99 | | 4.99 |
| Portage la Prairie | | PC | Hold | 46.77 | -1.87 | | | 59.61 | -6.07 | | | -7.01 | | |
| Radisson | | NDP | Gain | 57.65 | 1.18 | | 1.18 | 52.31 | 15.61 | | 15.61 | -10.17 | | |
| Red River North | | PC | Hold | 60.47 | -3.49 | | | 60.35 | 2.38 | | 2.38 | -6.20 | | |
| Riding Mountain | | PC | Hold | 57.42 | 1.69 | | 1.69 | 63.02 | -2.89 | | | -7.01 | | |
| Riel | | NDP | Gain | 65.70 | 2.46 | | 2.46 | 54.65 | 19.26 | | 19.26 | -13.03 | | |
| River Heights | | NDP | Gain | 67.59 | 2.12 | | 2.12 | 44.21 | 29.63 | | 29.63 | -3.17 | | |
| Roblin | | PC | Hold | 62.54 | 0.71 | | 0.71 | 49.72 | -5.47 | | | -14.02 | | |
| Rossmere | | NDP | Gain | 60.42 | 0.80 | | 0.8 | 50.74 | 11.89 | | 11.89 | -8.21 | | |
| Seine River | | NDP | Gain | 63.64 | 1.52 | | 1.52 | 52.08 | 26.07 | | 26.07 | -16.32 | | |
| Selkirk | | PC | Hold | 56.29 | -2.96 | | | 52.49 | 0.65 | | 0.65 | -5.72 | | |
| Southdale | | NDP | Gain | 64.72 | 3.06 | | 3.06 | 48.48 | 10.64 | | 10.64 | -9.45 | | |
| Springfield-Ritchot | | PC | Hold | 58.30 | -2.27 | | | 54.89 | -4.59 | | | -10.16 | | |
| Spruce Woods | | PC | Hold | 56.54 | -0.21 | | | 61.81 | -6.26 | | | -7.19 | | |
| St. Boniface | | NDP | Gain | 60.06 | 0.28 | | 0.28 | 53.38 | 23.51 | | 23.51 | -16.29 | | |
| St. James | | NDP | Hold | 54.68 | -1.11 | | | 64.82 | 17.56 | | 17.56 | 11.36 | | 11.36 |
| St. Johns | | NDP | Hold | 46.98 | -0.36 | | | 60.76 | 8.88 | | 8.88 | 8.83 | | 8.83 |
| St. Vital | | NDP | Hold | 56.88 | -3.89 | | | 61.15 | 16.67 | | 16.67 | 11.12 | | 11.12 |
| Steinbach | | PC | Hold | 48.14 | -4.35 | | | 74.37 | -7.26 | | | -7.34 | | |
| Swan River | | PC | Hold | 57.90 | 3.03 | | 3.03 | 62.91 | -5.95 | | | -5.98 | | |
| The Maples | | NDP | Hold | 50.62 | -2.46 | | | 56.13 | 16.62 | | 16.62 | 12.61 | | 12.61 |
| The Pas-Kameesak | | NDP | Hold | 53.52 | 10.48 | | 10.48 | 67.18 | 9.27 | | 9.27 | 2.44 | | 2.44 |
| Thompson | | NDP | Hold | 36.10 | -1.17 | | | 68.28 | 13.73 | | 13.73 | 10.35 | | 10.35 |
| Transcona | | NDP | Hold | 51.40 | -1.05 | | | 58.50 | 12.09 | | 12.09 | 10.88 | | 10.88 |
| Turtle Mountain | | PC | Hold | 55.64 | -1.65 | | | 55.05 | -12.43 | | | 1.24 | | 1.24 |
| Tuxedo | | PC | Hold | 59.86 | 1.96 | | 1.96 | 40.21 | -7.65 | | | -3.19 | | |
| Tyndall Park | | Lib | Hold | 49.75 | -6.64 | | | 54.99 | 0.32 | | 0.32 | 2.42 | | 2.42 |
| Union Station | | NDP | Hold | 42.21 | -1.85 | | | 70.78 | 18.16 | | 18.16 | 12.58 | | 12.58 |
| Waverley | | NDP | Gain | 53.97 | 2.02 | | 2.02 | 44.10 | 15.50 | | 15.5 | -11.35 | | |
| Wolseley | | NDP | Hold | 53.77 | -3.19 | | | 75.31 | 29.28 | | 29.28 | 29.47 | | 29.47 |
* ↑ Share won by winning candidate, with difference noted from share achieved by the same party in 2018.
* ↑ Positive indicates improvement to standing of party winning in 2018; negative points to 2018's second-place party being swung to.

### Results by riding

| Riding | Outgoing MLA | Elected MLA |
| Agassiz | Eileen Clarke | Jodie Byram |
| Assiniboia | Scott Johnston | Nellie Kennedy |
| Borderland | Josh Guenter | Josh Guenter |
| Brandon East | Len Isleifson | Glen Simard |
| Brandon West | Reg Helwer | Wayne Balcaen |
| Burrows | Diljeet Brar | Diljeet Brar |
| Concordia | Matt Wiebe | Matt Wiebe |
| Dauphin | Brad Michaleski | Ron Kostyshyn |
| Dawson Trail | Bob Lagassé | Bob Lagassé |
| Elmwood | Jim Maloway | Jim Maloway |
| Flin Flon | Tom Lindsey | Tom Lindsey |
| Fort Garry | Mark Wasyliw | Mark Wasyliw |
| Fort Richmond | Sarah Guillemard | Jennifer Chen |
| Fort Rouge | Wab Kinew | Wab Kinew |
| Fort Whyte | Obby Khan | Obby Khan |
| Interlake-Gimli | Derek Johnson | Derek Johnson |
| Keewatinook | Ian Bushie | Ian Bushie |
| Kildonan-River East | Cathy Cox | Rachelle Schott |
| Kirkfield Park | Kevin Klein | Logan Oxenham |
| La Verendrye | Dennis Smook | Konrad Narth |
| Lac du Bonnet | Wayne Ewasko | Wayne Ewasko |
| Lagimodière | Andrew Smith | Tyler Blashko |
| Lakeside | Ralph Eichler | Trevor King |
| McPhillips | Shannon Martin | Jasdeep Devgan |
| Midland | Blaine Pedersen | Lauren Stone |
| Morden-Winkler | Cameron Friesen | Carrie Hiebert |
| Notre Dame | Malaya Marcelino | Malaya Marcelino |
| Point Douglas | Bernadette Smith | Bernadette Smith |
| Portage la Prairie | Ian Wishart | Jeff Bereza |
| Radisson | James Teitsma | Jelynn Dela Cruz |
| Red River North | Jeff Wharton | Jeff Wharton |
| Riding Mountain | Greg Nesbitt | Greg Nesbitt |
| Riel | Rochelle Squires | Mike Moyes |
| River Heights | Jon Gerrard | Mike Moroz |
| Roblin | Myrna Driedger | Kathleen Cook |
| Rossmere | Andrew Micklefield | Tracy Schmidt |
| Seine River | Janice Morley-Lecomte | Billie Cross |
| Selkirk | Alan Lagimodiere | Richard Perchotte |
| Southdale | Audrey Gordon | Renée Cable |
| Springfield-Ritchot | Ron Schuler | Ron Schuler |
| Spruce Woods | Cliff Cullen | Grant Jackson |
| St. Boniface | Dougald Lamont | Robert Loiselle |
| St. James | Adrien Sala | Adrien Sala |
| St. Johns | Nahanni Fontaine | Nahanni Fontaine |
| St. Vital | Jamie Moses | Jamie Moses |
| Steinbach | Kelvin Goertzen | Kelvin Goertzen |
| Swan River | Rick Wowchuk | Rick Wowchuk |
| The Maples | Mintu Sandhu | Mintu Sandhu |
| The Pas-Kameesak | Amanda Lathlin | Amanda Lathlin |
| Thompson | Eric Redhead | Eric Redhead |
| Transcona | Nello Altomare | Nello Altomare |
| Turtle Mountain | Doyle Piwniuk | Doyle Piwniuk |
| Tuxedo | Heather Stefanson | Heather Stefanson |
| Tyndall Park | Cindy Lamoureux | Cindy Lamoureux |
| Union Station | Uzoma Asagwara | Uzoma Asagwara |
| Waverley | Jon Reyes | David Pankratz |
| Wolseley | Lisa Naylor | Lisa Naylor |

### Analysis

Party candidates in 2nd place :
| Party in 1st place | Party in 1st place | Party in 2nd place | Party in 2nd place | Party in 2nd place | Party in 2nd place | Total |
| Party in 1st place | Party in 1st place | NDP | PC | Lib | Ind | Total |
| | New Democratic | | 30 | 3 | 1 | 34 |
| | Progressive Conservative | 21 | | 1 | | 22 |
| | Liberal | 1 | | | | 1 |
| Total | Total | 22 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 57 |
Candidates ranked 1st to 5th place, by party :
| Parties | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
| █ New Democratic | 34 | 22 | 1 | | |
| █ Progressive Conservative | 22 | 30 | 5 | | |
| █ Liberal | 1 | 4 | 38 | 6 | |
| █ Independent | | 1 | | 2 | |
| █ Keystone | | | 5 | | |
| █ Green | | | 4 | 9 | |
| █ Communist | | | | 2 | 3 |
Resulting composition of the 43rd Manitoba Legislature :
| Source | Source | Party | Party | Party | Party |
| Source | Source | NDP | PC | Lib | Total |
| Seats retained | Incumbents returned | 18 | 12 | 1 | 31 |
| Seats retained | Open seats held | | 10 | | 10 |
| Seats changing hands | Incumbents defeated | 12 | | | 12 |
| Seats changing hands | Open seats gained | 4 | | | 4 |
| Total | Total | 34 | 22 | 1 | 57 |

### Aftermath

Liberal leader Dougald Lamont resigned on election night following a dismal performance for his party. Both he and Jon Gerrard lost their seats to NDP challengers, leaving Cindy Lamoureux as the sole Liberal in the legislative assembly. Outgoing premier and PC leader Heather Stefanson also announced her resignation as party leader on election night.

### Seats changing hands
#### Defeated MLAs

| Constituency | Party | Name | Year elected | Seat held by party since | Defeated by | Party |
| St. Boniface | █ Liberal | Dougald Lamont | 2018 b.e | 2018 b.e | Robert Loiselle | █ New Democratic |
| River Heights | █ Liberal | Jon Gerrard | 1999 | 1999 | Mike Moroz | █ New Democratic |
| Southdale | █ Progressive Conservative | Audrey Gordon | 2019 | 2016 | Renée Cable | █ New Democratic |
| Kirkfield Park | █ Progressive Conservative | Kevin Klein | 2022 | 2016 | Logan Oxenham | █ New Democratic |
| Radisson | █ Progressive Conservative | James Teitsma | 2016 | 2016 | Jelynn Dela Cruz | █ New Democratic |
| Seine River | █ Progressive Conservative | Janice Morley-Lecomte | 2016 | 2016 | Billie Cross | █ New Democratic |
| Waverley | █ Progressive Conservative | Jon Reyes | 2016 | 2019 (District Created) | David Pankratz | █ New Democratic |
| Brandon East | █ Progressive Conservative | Len Isleifson | 2016 | 2016 | Glen Simard | █ New Democratic |
| Riel | █ Progressive Conservative | Rochelle Squires | 2016 | 2016 | Mike Moyes | █ New Democratic |
| Lagimodière | █ Progressive Conservative | Andrew Smith | 2016 | 2019 (District Created) | Tyler Blashko | █ New Democratic |
| Assiniboia | █ Progressive Conservative | Scott Johnston | 2016 | 2016 | Nellie Kennedy | █ New Democratic |
| Rossmere | █ Progressive Conservative | Andrew Micklefield | 2016 | 2016 | Tracy Schmidt | █ New Democratic |

#### Open seats

| Constituency | Party | Candidate | Incumbent retiring from the legislature | Won by | Party |
| Fort Richmond | █ Progressive Conservative | Paramjit Shahi | Sarah Guillemard | Jennifer Chen | █ New Democratic |
| Kildonan-River East | █ Progressive Conservative | Alana Vannahme | Cathy Cox | Rachelle Schott | █ New Democratic |
| McPhillips | █ Progressive Conservative | Sheilah Restall | Shannon Martin | Jasdeep Devgan | █ New Democratic |
| Dauphin | █ Progressive Conservative | Gord Wood | Brad Michaleski | Ron Kostyshyn | █ New Democratic |

## Opinion polls

Voting intentions in Manitoba since the 2019 election :
| Polling firm | Dates conducted | Source | PC | NDP | Liberal | Green | Others | Margin of error | Sample size | Polling method | Lead |
| Forum Research | Oct 2, 2023 | | 41.3% | 44.7% | 12.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 3.3% | 910 | IVR | 3.4% |
| Research Co. | Sep 30–Oct 2, 2023 | | 39% | 48% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 600 | Online | 9% |
| Mainstreet Research | Sep 28–Oct 1, 2023 | | 41% | 47% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 3.7% | 698 | Smart IVR | 6% |
| Sovereign North Strategies | Sep 17–19, 2023 | | 42.5% | 39.4% | 15.9% | 2.2% | N/A | 3.9% | 852 | Telephone | 3.1% |
| Angus Reid | Sep 13–19, 2023 | | 41% | 47% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 990 | Online | 6% |
| Probe Research | Sep 7–18, 2023 | | 38% | 49% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Online | 11% |
| Research Co. | Sep 15–17, 2023 | | 39% | 41% | 14% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 600 | Online | 2% |
| Counsel Public Affairs | Sep 11–16, 2023 | | 39% | 44% | 13% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 505 | Online | 5% |
| Mainstreet Research | Aug 28 – Sep 2, 2023 | | 43% | 42% | 9% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 601 | Smart IVR | 1% |
| Mainstreet Research | Jul 26–28, 2023 | | 42% | 38% | 12% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 597 | Smart IVR | 4% |
| Probe Research | May 31 – Jun 13, 2023 | | 41% | 41% | 10% | 5% | 3% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Online | Tie |
| Angus Reid | May 30 – Jun 3, 2023 | | 39% | 44% | 10% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 515 | Online | 5% |
| | March 26, 2023 | Janine Gibson is elected leader of the Green Party of Manitoba | Janine Gibson is elected leader of the Green Party of Manitoba | Janine Gibson is elected leader of the Green Party of Manitoba | Janine Gibson is elected leader of the Green Party of Manitoba | Janine Gibson is elected leader of the Green Party of Manitoba | Janine Gibson is elected leader of the Green Party of Manitoba | Janine Gibson is elected leader of the Green Party of Manitoba | Janine Gibson is elected leader of the Green Party of Manitoba | Janine Gibson is elected leader of the Green Party of Manitoba | Janine Gibson is elected leader of the Green Party of Manitoba |
| Probe Research | Mar 8–20, 2023 | | 38% | 44% | 9% | 4% | 4% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Online | 6% |
| Mainstreet Research | Jan 24–26, 2023 | | 36.2% | 41.5% | 14.6% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 4.3% | 514 | Smart IVR | 5.3% |
| Probe Research | Nov 22 – Dec 5, 2022 | | 35% | 46% | 13% | 3% | 2% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Telephone/Online | 11% |
| Probe Research | Sep 8–18, 2022 | | 37% | 44% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Telephone | 7% |
| Angus Reid | Jun 7–13, 2022 | | 38% | 40% | 13% | 3% | 6% | 5% | 468 | Online | 2% |
| Probe Research | Jun 1–12, 2022 | | 35% | 45% | 13% | 3% | 4% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Telephone | 10% |
| Probe Research | Mar 9–21, 2022 | | 34% | 44% | 15% | 2% | 5% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Telephone | 10% |
| Angus Reid | Mar 10–15, 2022 | | 39% | 40% | 14% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 475 | Online | 1% |
| Angus Reid | Jan 7–12, 2022 | | 36% | 42% | 12% | 3% | 6% | 5% | 407 | Online | 6% |
| Probe Research | Nov 23 – Dec 5, 2021 | | 37% | 42% | 12% | 4% | 5% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Telephone | 5% |
| | October 30, 2021 | Heather Stefanson is elected leader of the Manitoba Progressive Conservative Party | Heather Stefanson is elected leader of the Manitoba Progressive Conservative Party | Heather Stefanson is elected leader of the Manitoba Progressive Conservative Party | Heather Stefanson is elected leader of the Manitoba Progressive Conservative Party | Heather Stefanson is elected leader of the Manitoba Progressive Conservative Party | Heather Stefanson is elected leader of the Manitoba Progressive Conservative Party | Heather Stefanson is elected leader of the Manitoba Progressive Conservative Party | Heather Stefanson is elected leader of the Manitoba Progressive Conservative Party | Heather Stefanson is elected leader of the Manitoba Progressive Conservative Party | Heather Stefanson is elected leader of the Manitoba Progressive Conservative Party |
| Innovative Research | Sep 24 – Oct 5, 2021 | | 41% | 32% | 18% | 5% | 3% | N/A | 678 | Online | 9% |
| Angus Reid | Sep 29 – Oct 3, 2021 | | 38% | 43% | 11% | 4% | 5% | N/A | 435 | Online | 5% |
| Probe Research | Sep 7–20, 2021 | | 35% | 42% | 12% | 3% | 8% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Telephone | 7% |
| Probe Research | Jun 2–11, 2021 | | 29% | 47% | 14% | 5% | 5% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Telephone | 18% |
| Angus Reid | Jun 2–7, 2021 | | 39% | 42% | 11% | 4% | 4% | 4.0% | 504 | Online | 3% |
| Probe Research | Mar 10–26, 2021 | | 36% | 42% | 11% | 7% | 4% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Telephone | 6% |
| Probe Research | Nov 24 – Dec 4, 2020 | | 37% | 41% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Telephone | 4% |
| Angus Reid | Nov 24–30, 2020 | | 39% | 40% | 12% | 5% | 4% | 4.8% | 420 | Online | 1% |
| Probe Research | Sep 8–17, 2020 | | 43% | 34% | 16% | 5% | 3% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Telephone | 9% |
| EKOS | Jul 24 – Aug 26, 2020 | | 44% | 31% | 12% | 9% | 4% | 2.9% | 1,154 | HD-IVR | 13% |
| EKOS | Jun 16 – Jul 23, 2020 | | 43% | 27% | 18% | 7% | 5% | 2.4% | 1,691 | HD-IVR | 16% |
| Probe Research | Jun 2–11, 2020 | | 38% | 36% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Telephone | 2% |
| Innovative Research | May 29 – Jun 3, 2020 | | 38% | 26% | 26% | 10% | N/A | N/A | 200 | Online | 12% |
| Probe Research | Mar 10–24, 2020 | | 43% | 33% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Telephone | 10% |
| Probe Research | Nov 27 – Dec 10, 2019 | | 42% | 36% | 13% | 8% | 2% | 3.1% | 1,000 | Telephone | 6% |
| 2019 general election | September 10, 2019 | — | 47.1% | 31.4% | 14.5% | 6.4% | 0.6% | — | — | — | 15.7% |
| Polling firm | Dates conducted | Source | | | | | Others | Margin of error | Sample size | Polling method | Lead |
| Polling firm | Dates conducted | Source | PC | NDP | Liberal | Green | Others | Margin of error | Sample size | Polling method | Lead |